Sorted Weekly Tweets – The Aleph Blog

Posted on 21 July 2012 by David Merkel

Eurozone

Indebted Valencia asks Spain government for help, markets jolted http://t.co/lDkPC9U2 Better to let a region fail, than bail them out $$ Jul 21, 2012
Favoring the French, a lesson in perception from bonds http://t.co/qa5CJEgL France’s advantage: big, which is weak 4 creditworthiness $$ Jul 21, 2012
Estonia is admirable for their courage, though I can’t imagine why you would want to be part of the Eurozone NOW $$ Jul 20, 2012
Krugmenistan vs. Estonia http://t.co/1tJssWqG Post private debt bubble, Estonia froze pensions, lowered govt wages ~10% & + VAT by 2% $$ Jul 20, 2012
Demand for Spanish Debt Continues to Evaporate http://t.co/TMdIV05Y Piecemeal solutions continue to fail as 10-year rises over 7% $$ Jul 19, 2012
Merkel Says Bailout Liability Undecided http://t.co/HuggOawS “We always get the majority we need,” Ms. Merkel said. $$ Jul 16, 2012

US Economic Policy

FSOC Supports Overhaul to Trim Risk of Money-Market Runs http://t.co/nD1CKeqv Federal Govt owned by the banks, who want to axe a rival $$ Jul 21, 2012
Let States Do the Tax-Collecting Dirty Work http://t.co/Uq1LmPwI States could decide how to tax & remit to the Feds. +1 $$ Jul 21, 2012
How the Elites Built America?s Economic Wall http://t.co/ifCcBhX6 Interesting take on how some “blue state” policies promote inequality $$ Jul 20, 2012
Treasury Auctions 10-Year TIPS at Record Low Negative Yield http://t.co/XvnQmLtg Lock in a loss against CPI to avoid a poss bigger loss $$ Jul 20, 2012
The Coming Defense Crack-Up http://t.co/JKZycDO4 If it forced us to reprioritize Defense & other Federal spending, could b good thing $$ Jul 19, 2012
D&R parties are rival teams @ same country club $$ RT @ampressman: @AlephBlog Yeah, who else would do such a thing? http://t.co/yN4GyGat Jul 19, 2012
The GOP’s Solyndra Wing http://t.co/eNvLU1Wb Republicans who love corporate welfare; this is not merely a problem of the Democrats $$ Jul 19, 2012
Post Office Might Miss Retirees’ Payment http://t.co/YvpRVLWe Draining pension funds is a stopgap, not a real solution. Raise prices. $$ Jul 19, 2012
QE, negative yields and the paradox of thrift http://t.co/oUM0hkI0 QE not only raises asset prices, but liability values as well $$ #fail Jul 18, 2012
At a Wharton conf 22 years ago, I said neg rates were possible b/c of deflation combined w/need to pay to store cash. Instructor laughed. $$ Jul 18, 2012
U.S. Public-Pension Shortfall $4.6 Trillion, Budget Group Says http://t.co/Y4fq7tj0 Probably a little high; Tsy discount rates severe $$ Jul 18, 2012
How Much Could States Benefit From Online Sales Tax? http://t.co/9d3eYZz4 Would bail out a decent amount of many states’ deficits $$ Jul 18, 2012
Wrong: Industrial Production in U.S. Rises in Sign of Resilience http://t.co/RfNT4hM6 Data revisions > current period estimates beat $$ Jul 17, 2012
Ponzi Scheme? http://t.co/kU4Yx1CW Cities r going BK b/c they didn’t adequately project their funding needs?will community ass’ns b next? $$ Jul 17, 2012
Calpers Misses Big on Investment Target http://t.co/HIRzXnw1 Assets < Liabs; A: +1% L: +7.5, plus val adj from 7.75%. Assets <<< Liabs $$ Jul 17, 2012
Romneyconomics – Good but incomplete http://t.co/6n869J9j Generally agree, but shoddy logic in the middle about GDP & debts $$ Jul 16, 2012
Treasuries Doomsday Is Four Years Away for Vanguard http://t.co/nAz67Q3k Vanguard is largest private owner of US debt @ $148 billion $$ Jul 16, 2012

Miscellaneous

I get amused when people misspell Warren Buffett’s name as Buffet. But a high profile organization: @Bloomberg? $$ http://t.co/NRsc8plk Jul 20, 2012
New Sleeping Pill Thwarts Brain?s Up-All-Night Neurons http://t.co/6I0LglFG $MRK Blocks a tiny group of receptors that keep body alert $$ Jul 20, 2012
Fore Sale http://t.co/mkUeWlVb On the plunging prices for houses where you also have to pay annual membership dues for the golf club $$ Jul 20, 2012
Task named editor in chief of Yahoo Finance http://t.co/7aiATNa6 Congratulations 2 @atask ! Great job @ important financial web resource $$ Jul 19, 2012
New Yahoo CEO Mayer is pregnant http://t.co/Kq7ICTcD Happy for the couple; risk to put off kids into late 30s; hope her delivery is easy $$ Jul 17, 2012
Contra: The Secret Behind Romney?s Magical IRA http://t.co/uQHbSbWc Misses preferred shares & valuation issues; better work elsewhere $$ Jul 16, 2012

Rest of the World

Japanese Consumers Reconsidering Rice Loyalty http://t.co/W4WuhvKj Food grown in Japan is suspect since Fukushima; foreign rice limited $$ Jul 20, 2012
Fast slowdown $$ RT @Thevalueteam: China?s steel and concrete sectors are indicative of something potentially wrong http://t.co/ufK0Vaob ^KM Jul 17, 2012
China’s Version of ‘Too Big to Fail’ http://t.co/tNKduuPn Never knew China had a CDO mkt; also suggests a private equity bubble in China $$ Jul 16, 2012

Market Dynamics

Here?s Another Indicator Pointing Toward Recession http://t.co/c3ImTeZF Sharp cuts in earnings estimates indicate a recession coming $$ Jul 21, 2012
Mortgage Bonds Yield Hopeful Signs on Housing Recovery http://t.co/gzm1Fefi A lot of disagreement over proper credit loss assumptions $$ Jul 20, 2012
Plotting a Securitization Sequel http://t.co/WE0uhTYI Don’t think securitizing rental payments will work. no property behind cashflow $$ Jul 20, 2012
Economic Fears Hurting Obama, Poll Indicates http://t.co/vq7JzIEe No surprise, there are few policies that work against debt deflation $$ Jul 20, 2012
Everyone Hates Treasurys Now http://t.co/LGYAIcTU That’s what makes it such a great trade @carney, w/many needing2invest 4 long liabs $$ Jul 20, 2012
Passel of articles on LIBOR-like scandals http://t.co/lQfSaOUE & http://t.co/64rzFL5q & http://t.co/GQJnUZZK Damages hard2prove $$ Jul 19, 2012
Failing to Connect the Boom to the Bust http://t.co/jrKGIVKs Surges in debt r associated w/booms in asset prices, vice-versa 4 busts $$ Jul 19, 2012
CMBS Leverage Most Since ?07 as Standards Loosen http://t.co/1R5FYTwb 4a long time I was a realtive fan of CMBS, but now I say: AVOID $$ Jul 18, 2012
They got hit by the shalestorm $$ RT @PlanMaestro: Wilbur Ross Says U.S. Coal Is Facing Years Of Headwinds http://t.co/2TJMPDQ8 Jul 17, 2012
Contra: Libor Flaws Allowed Banks to Rig Rates Without Conspiracy http://t.co/khuqkHTr Does not proves its case; just hypotheticals $$ Jul 16, 2012
Negative Real Interest Rates: The Conundrum for Investment and Spending Policies http://t.co/OTDe5p9Y Policies should follow nomnl yields $$ Jul 16, 2012

Companies

Marissa Mayer: Google?s Chic Geek http://t.co/Ge3zFk1l Good background piece on new CEO of $YHOO. Q: Can a technologist make a good CEO? $$ Jul 16, 2012
Buffett Empowers Deputies by Raising Funds to $8 Billion http://t.co/6C3YO1Ml Note: buying smaller companies than WB does but still big $$ Jul 16, 2012

Comments

@jake_f My original tweet stems from CMBS-like structures that did not fare well, b/c underlying property economics was too volatile $$ Jul 20, 2012
@jake_f That’s a good point; if they use that structure, could work, but will they have high enough “interest rates” to absorb losses? $$ Jul 20, 2012
@jake_f @DavidSchawel It’s probably a little of both; housing prices improving on low end, but there is a huge demand for yield now $$ Jul 20, 2012
@historysquared US paid down much of their debts post-WWII, inflated away more Jul 20, 2012
RT @AmyResnick: RT @SimonCYWong: Entertaining cartoon primer on #Basel 3: What it is & why it is needed http://t.co/rM0zPNkM via @fo … Jul 20, 2012
“We home school. We replace the teacher. Superior to the public schools because one-on-one?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Hia2soVu $$ Jul 19, 2012
“Good for you, KD. Glad you are safe, and powered. I grew up in Wisconsin, so I was used to the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/FjYt10DN $$ Jul 19, 2012
@jdstein I’m not saying those things aren’t in the LDS; those exist in other religions 2. It’s not what makes the LDS distinctive. Jul 19, 2012
@jdstein I am referring to the eighth and ninth paragraphs of the original article. Jul 19, 2012
RE: @bloombergview The virtues of Mormonism that the author thinks exist are not core to Mormonism. Romney knows well? http://t.co/qj5VH9gZ Jul 19, 2012
@kyles09 I’m in the Austrian School w/slight modification from the Santa Fe Institute Jul 19, 2012
@Jesse_Livermore @PragCapitalist Total share to wages down, profits up, well known since 1990. Profit margins will mean-revert someday $$ Jul 19, 2012
@Jesse_Livermore @PragCapitalist Ok, I get it, though my wage figure is a little higher. Real GDP rising @ 2.5%/yr vs real avg wages @ 1%/y Jul 19, 2012
@Jesse_Livermore @PragCapitalist You might need to spill the calculation for me, I don’t see that. Jul 19, 2012
@PragCapitalist At least for the average, no not stagnant, maybe not as good as post WWII, & it might be worth looking at median vs mean. $$ Jul 19, 2012
@PragCapitalist and the CPI-U average is 2.51%, looks like about 1% real average wage growth, which doesn’t seem unreasonable. Jul 19, 2012
@PragCapitalist looking at the AWI tables, http://t.co/Xy1cg1VZ it has almost doubled over that period – 3.47%/yr compounded $$ Jul 19, 2012
RE: @marketfolly They are all ruling out a depression scenario. Long Treasuries continue to rally; very contrarian. http://t.co/GumjLkeJ Jul 18, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Thanks for the old news; trouble is, kids need downtime, and our schools aren’t very good — your ? http://t.co/XBEWunfe Jul 18, 2012
@stockspot2000 Interesting, have not seen evernote before. Thanks. Jul 18, 2012
@footnoted Pension and healthcare systems will not be able to fund the obligations; lesser benefits will be paid. $$ Jul 18, 2012
Could we audit the gold at Fort Knox, also? Amazing secrecy there. http://t.co/cclHfpLk Jul 17, 2012
@mattyglesias Heard you on NPR this evening, please review http://t.co/kvzJmCXQ because it explains Romney’s IRA strategies. $$ Jul 18, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Fail: you did not mention the preferred stock. You did not do your homework. This is a perfect e? http://t.co/74HUrube Jul 16, 2012
@BarbarianCap I’m glad you like it; it works out to a minute per every 4 tweets — making it 1 of my shorter writing efforts for my blog $$ Jul 15, 2012
@BarbarianCap So far I have turned down a few book deals, mainly 4 time use reasons: asset management biz doesn’t support the family yet $$ Jul 15, 2012