Note: Tomorrow (Saturday) I will be on WBAL Radio at 8:30 AM Eastern with local radio host Jimmy Mathis, talking about the markets.? If you are up, they do stream the broadcast.

 

Market Dynamics

 

• Six Weeks of Green: Stocks Quietly Creep Higher http://t.co/XYxAfaOj Markets move up at half the speed they go down http://t.co/d09QUp8y $$ Aug 18, 2012
• Premiums dominate in HY CEFs & loan participation CE funds, even the investment grade funds r seeing discounts fade. Too hot. $$ #yieldlust Aug 17, 2012
• T. Rowe Price Small Cap Fund Veteran Preston Athey to Exit in 2014 http://t.co/Y6BRCnmW One of $TROW ‘s finest takes a less active role $$ Aug 17, 2012
• Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Firm?s Equity Assets http://t.co/5ESGLVdl Makes me bearish on gold. Bad mkt could b a forced seller $$ Aug 17, 2012
• What should I do with my money now? http://t.co/xqXtnPqb My view is this, if acctg is conservative, buy stocks P/TB < 1.5, P/E < 10 $$ Aug 17, 2012
• Usage: That was a real Facebook of an IPO! 2) We really Facebooked the IPO buyers! 3) Avoid this IPO, it’s going 2b a real Facebook! $FB $$ Aug 17, 2012
• Facebook puts follow-on on ice http://t.co/d2CMGLvl Avoiding adding insult to injury. Lousy IPOs in the future will be called “Facebooks” $$ Aug 17, 2012
• It’s usually a bad sign when locals are selling, and foreigners buying. How do foreigners have more knowledge? $$ http://t.co/mhOHunFj Aug 16, 2012
• Man overrides machine to tackle low bond yield risk http://t.co/IDTSByMr Momentum isn’t everything w/bonds, eventually mean reversion. $$ Aug 16, 2012
• Whenever you mention CDS spreads, could you do us the favor of citing that spreads bonds are trading at? You are, aft? http://t.co/o3StHaG0 Aug 15, 2012
• You Are Now About to Witness the Strength of Street Knowledge http://t.co/jV4bxWc4 Having a revenue model is an aid to stock performance $$ Aug 15, 2012
• Even Amid the Current Turmoil, Stocks Still Beat Bonds http://t.co/fqTWnM6g Issuing this opinion: a crowded trade http://t.co/X6KGWp5b $$ Aug 14, 2012
• Silver Hoard Near Record as Hedge-Fund Bulls Recoil http://t.co/gQpc19Hz Pressure for prices to fall amid ETF-based hoarding $$ Aug 14, 2012
• Junk-Bond Buyers Plot Escape in Debt Gap http://t.co/lEVYDv9f Smart money moving up in liquidity & down in yield. Junk rally continues $$ Aug 14, 2012
• A Green Light for Car Loans http://t.co/VqfWA4AK Banks, Finance Firms Boost Auto Lending; Fed Survey Finds Easier Standards $$ #moredebt Aug 14, 2012
• Stocks: The ‘Safety’ Dance http://t.co/N9CNg4aO Defensive stock valuations high relative to cyclicals. Graph: http://t.co/Q17aYeiU $$ Aug 13, 2012
• As Corporate-Bond Yields Sink, Risks for Investors Rise http://t.co/WeET5vWD Maybe. Debt-deflation has a funny way of persisting $$ Aug 13, 2012

 

Rest of World

 

• Mexico’s big oil problem http://t.co/e3b6V19s Yrs of abuse &non-investment by PEMEX, milked by the govt, oil production declining fast $$ Aug 18, 2012
• Iranian Currency Traders Find a Haven in Afghanistan http://t.co/Bcw8l03A Sorta fitting that Afghans make $$ breaking sanctions on Iran $$ Aug 18, 2012
• Rate Cuts on the Cards for Norway and Sweden http://t.co/REReXdiF We need a new Gresham’s Law on Monetary Policy. See in next tweet $$ Aug 17, 2012
• Bad monetary policy drives out good monetary policy when large countries inflate, & exporters in small countries complain about losses $$ Aug 17, 2012
• You can say that again $$ RT @saraeisenFX: More signs of worsening credit quality in China http://t.co/KLAApyBy Aug 17, 2012
• Aramco Says Virus Attacks Network, Oil Output Unaffected http://t.co/o0p8Rb94 What shall we call this? The Cold Techno-War? $$ Aug 16, 2012
• The only way out for China: Andy Xie http://t.co/ROaF0C2S Problems only going2get worse as long as government interferes $$ #chinacrash Aug 15, 2012
• Beijing Loan Guarantee Firm Teeters on the Edge http://t.co/XtapRo8W A sign of things to come, and how will China deal with the defaults? $$ Aug 15, 2012
• China?s money outflow continues in July http://t.co/xpMby8WI The wealthy of China send capital abroad, so that they can survive anything $$ Aug 15, 2012
• German Provinces Struggle to Lure Skilled Workers http://t.co/yN61QTaJ Europe can find work, but will have to find it in Germany $$ Aug 14, 2012
• Correlation Breakdown as Proxies for Risk Boost Aussie, Kiwi http://t.co/4zQMFGQd Countries w/good $$ policy draw funds, harming exporters Aug 14, 2012
• Africa’s pirates have demands – and letterhead, too http://t.co/GKbc4Jcm Not intimidation, merely “making you an offer you can’t refuse” $$ Aug 13, 2012
• Mursi Sidelines Egypt?s Top Generals Amid Power Struggle http://t.co/KAOWGQdE Push is coming to shove; Military vs Muslim Brotherhood $$ Aug 13, 2012

 

US Economy

 

• The case for supply-side tax cuts http://t.co/EYfStM7t Tax increase of 1% of GDP reduces output over the next 3 years by nearly 3% $$ Aug 17, 2012
• London Firings Seen Surging as Finance Firms Add NY Jobs http://t.co/D0to5HSo Finance jobs grow where the regulations are lowest $$ Aug 17, 2012
• 5 years forward, five year inflation: http://t.co/q98ZknDn Seems to top out @ 2.7% recently, 3% longer-term http://t.co/rqFkN26r $$ Aug 16, 2012
• Farmland Prices Surge Across the Plains States http://t.co/we6hZAcP Poss causes: hi grain prices & widespread use of crop insurance $$ Aug 16, 2012
• The Downside of a Recovery in Housing http://t.co/BfzmDdYr “potential uptick in inflation measures, of which housing is a big component” Aug 16, 2012
• Will births come back with the economy? http://t.co/sYqJjBXm Yes, people have more children when they are optimistic about the future $$ Aug 15, 2012
• Wrong: What if baby boomers don’t live forever? http://t.co/kRLnHqrA Even if mortality does not improve @ prior rate, makes little $$ diff Aug 15, 2012
• Mathematically Possible http://t.co/ziQNoQx4 Correcting the false assumptions of Obama’s tax gurus | Govt in DC is always dishonest $$ Aug 14, 2012
• Clarity of communication is not the Fed’s problem. If you have bad policy, it doesn’t matter how you present it. http://t.co/C27MJ2QX Aug 13, 2012

 

Pensions

 

• Unions protest Democrats at Illinois State Fair http://t.co/uU7twsOK Govt workers learn hard reality. Benefits not protected by ERISA + $$ Aug 18, 2012
• Which means underfunded benefits may never b paid at the level promised. Taxes can’t b raised enough to make it work, either. Sorry $$ 🙁 Aug 18, 2012
• @mckpartners There r 3 parties not getting blame here aside from the standard ones: 1) accountants that dreamed up lousy funding rules + $$ Aug 18, 2012
• @mckpartners 2) Actuaries didn’t pushback on investment assumptions & 3) Union negotiators thot they were smart trading salary 4 pensions $$ Aug 18, 2012
• Annals of dubious research, 401(k) loan-default edition http://t.co/LDLsN0f1 401k loan defaults r 2% of what widely-cited study claims $$ Aug 13, 2012

 

GSE Bailout Change

 

• Fannie?s and Freddie?s Forgettable Friday http://t.co/kvfNkBcI Investment whose value is dependent on unknowable government policy $$ Aug 18, 2012
• GSEs expected to unload delinquent loans after Treasury change http://t.co/2g7tiIxI Portolios to shrink through prepays/writeoffs 15%/yr $$ Aug 17, 2012
• Anybody have guesses as2what $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAT $FMCCK should be worth? Pfds ~ 2 coupon pmts? Common stock ~ 0? Prob(going-away present)? $$ Aug 17, 2012
• Treasury to wind down GSEs faster, only to be replaced with (insert solution here) http://t.co/mAtyKpHs Future of the GSEs in question $$ Aug 17, 2012
• Treasury to Amend Terms of Fannie, Freddie Bailout http://t.co/iZcCdXML Cancels 10% div, all profits go2 Tsy. Comm stocks down 20-25% $$ Aug 17, 2012
• Fannie, Freddie Pfds Sink As Treasury Amends Bailout Terms http://t.co/3pGEjsrF Down 52-55% today. That was the crunch you heard $$ Aug 17, 2012

 

Municipal Bonds

 

• Bondholders, insurers challenge San Bernardino bankruptcy http://t.co/WE2vRb6e They allege SB finances are not in a state of emergency $$ Aug 18, 2012
• That really stinks, can’t comment there also $$ RT @Tubulus: @munilass I think your head will slam into your desk – http://t.co/8G1e0plE Aug 16, 2012
• The Untold Story of Municipal Bond Defaults http://t.co/2UKKOIUA Trivial thots from researchers @ NYFed, my comment: http://t.co/EP5aUq29 $$ Aug 15, 2012
• Looking for Higher Yields? Try ‘Junky’ Municipal Bonds http://t.co/qo9DfZKt Safer than corporate junk, but less liquid. Be careful $$ Aug 13, 2012

 

Other

 

• Apple judge: ?I see risk? and 7 more newsmaker quotes http://t.co/wyBoToT7 Notable quotes in the business world $$ Aug 17, 2012
• The Valley of Free Food: How One Firm Caters to California’s High Tech Giants http://t.co/cijDNgdC Companies r armies; travel on stomach $$ Aug 17, 2012
• Texas Seeks Seizure of Life Partners http://t.co/MWofrEv2 ‘Bout time. Life settlements should b illegal; no insurable interest $LPHI $$ Aug 17, 2012
• More trial, less error: An effort to improve scientific studies http://t.co/i2PLAD5h Why I am skeptical of much biometric research $$ Aug 16, 2012
• when $AMGN ‘s scientists tried to replicate 53 prominent studies in basic cancer biology … they were able to confirm the results of only 6 Aug 16, 2012
• Mobile pay war: Wal-Mart and others vs. Google http://t.co/Q30PZQGP So much innovation in payment systems; wonder which will win? $$ Aug 15, 2012
• Nassim Taleb: Stay Out of the Investment Industry http://t.co/ZyomTwjB Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville r @ work & still making $$ Aug 15, 2012
• Deep ocean lure grows as high-tech drilling pays off http://t.co/P4UP4ZWs The technology for extracting oil grows ever more complex $$ Aug 15, 2012
• Buyers Beware: The Goodwill Games http://t.co/eA7XEXjr Check the cash from operations. Should exceed earnings if Goodwill is valid. $$ Aug 14, 2012
• CLEAN UP THE BALANCE SHEET: GET RID OF DEFERRED TAXES http://t.co/DTfT8bRg Future income or losses can’t be assured, so not asset or liab $$ Aug 13, 2012

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Comments

• @BarbarianCap The firm I was with sold $AIG the day it went into the Dow. Close to a “top tick.” $HIG , did not do hearly as well 🙁 $$ Aug 18, 2012
• @The_Dumb_Money @pkedrosky is a bright guy. Many got it right, but fads suck people in. Aug 17, 2012
• RE: @boingboing Not too surprising. Many corporations pay low taxes b/c of govt incentives. Relationship 2 mgmt pay s? http://t.co/KoChJizm Aug 17, 2012
• @Breakingviews The sooner the euro dissolves, the less will be the pain for all involved. It was a mistake from the start. $$ Aug 17, 2012
• @pelias01 Many thanks for the many times you have asked people to follow me. I really appreciate it. Aug 17, 2012
• @JimPethokoukis I’m reading it now; that’s a fair assessment. Beyond that, it reinforces how hard it is to do anything in DC $$ Aug 16, 2012
• RT @PragCapitalist: Pushing up stock prices does not make underlying assets more profitable. The whole premise of the Bernanke Put is f … Aug 16, 2012
• @FeeOnlyIndy I try to be fair, I don’t always succeed, and I do have my biases, so take me with a grain of salt, but thanks $$ Aug 16, 2012
• @izakaminska Whenever I go to Boston, I always take the Water Taxi from the airport. Lets me off in Downtown –beautiful view of the city $$ Aug 15, 2012
• @munilass Glad u said: “The Fed really ought to be embarrassed that it published something like this.” I didn’t say that & should have $$ Aug 15, 2012
• @The_Analyst true… too much quantitative talent went to Wall Street, applied the wrong model: physics, rather than right model: ecology $$ Aug 15, 2012
• My friend Eric Hovde sadly didn’t win the Wisconsin Republican Senate primary; Eric would’ve shaken up DC. Thompson is business as usual $$ Aug 15, 2012
• “Proppants prop open cracks when hydraulic fracturing is done. $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/OuqTSMAc Aug 14, 2012
• ?I wasn’t that impressed w/Inker’s analysis. Does not take into account dollar-weighted returns. $$ http://t.co/C5Gh0pOl Aug 13, 2012
• @nancefinance I was pretty nerdy, though not withdrawn, back then. My mom was a self-taught investor. I caught the bug from her. $$ Aug 13, 2012
• When I was a teenager, I remember looking through the bond tables, noting that almost all prices were below 100. Today it is the opposite $$ Aug 13, 2012
• @japhychron @Peter_Atwater You were more than mostly right, it’s a great book. Only wish it could have been bigger. $$ Aug 12, 2012

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