Financial Markets

 

• State court ruling deals blow to U.S. bank mortgage system http://t.co/QilYZQJZ Washington State Supreme court allows MERS 2b sued &more $$ Sep 14, 2012
• Partial explanation for flash crash and HFT http://t.co/ylpBj6Bm http://t.co/ABsvytw9 AP http://t.co/7xH09jMn http://t.co/hyznU44r $$ Sep 14, 2012
• Violation: Prop Feeds #1 and #2 sent data to proprietary customers before NYSE sent data to the public feed. http://t.co/skh2CaUW ouch $$ Sep 14, 2012
• Equity Firms Like Bain Are Depicted as Colluding http://t.co/8KMIo1xy This could be significant, but some of the legal issues r squishy $$ Sep 14, 2012
• A Conversation with Ray Dalio http://t.co/clEaTy9C Full transcript, which I like, because watching video is slow $$ Sep 14, 2012
• Jeff Gundlach’s Eye-Opening Presentation ‘Mirror, Mirror On The Wall’ http://t.co/QE6PHUoP Be prepared for lots of informative charts $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Fink Belies Being Boring Telling Customers to Buy Stocks http://t.co/MYdrW95h A feature article on $BLK and Larry Fink; next Tsy Sec? $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Oddly, what Dalio is saying here is very close to Harry Browne’s idea of the Permanent Portfolio. $$ http://t.co/C0x37B3Y Sep 13, 2012
• Mortgage REITs’ leverage poses significant risks to the overall mortgage market http://t.co/Ifje6AxB Public markets r mismatched/limited $$ Sep 12, 2012
• Bill Gross Sees Higher Long-Term Yields Amid Reflation http://t.co/eYPeRZlt If that were true, rates would be high already. $$ #youlose Sep 12, 2012
• Is BlackRock Kissing Individual Bonds Goodbye? http://t.co/s2RywmL3 Mmmm…. converting transaction revenues into an annuity… yes… $$ Sep 12, 2012
• 361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing http://t.co/nd6akDbW Interesting briefing that makes a mostly bullish case $$ Sep 11, 2012
• Is Everything We Know About Stock/Bond Allocations Wrong? http://t.co/85D2kUik Questions the wisdom of risk parity for asset allocation $$ Sep 11, 2012
• Want to Buy a Private Stock? http://t.co/E3WojVi2 Listen to @jasonzweigwsj Do not buy private equity; you don’t have the expertise. $$ Sep 09, 2012

Federal Reserve

 

• New round of quantitative easing biggest yet? http://t.co/ANA3MX2y Potentially. Problems will come as Fed corners low-rate GSE Resdl MBS $$ Sep 14, 2012
• FOMC Central Tendencies: Target Fed Funds Rate at Year-End 2012-5, long-run 0.26 0.38 0.80 1.72 4.07 Chg: -0.04 -0.12 -0.30 NA -0.13 $$ Sep 13, 2012
• FOMC Central Tendencies: Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming extends 7.6 months from June to 2.8 years Sep 13, 2012
• FOMC Central Tendencies 2012-2015, long-run PCE inf 1.75 1.84 1.82 1.97 2.00 PCE inf 2012-2014 long-run +0.27 +0.08 +0.05 0.00 $$ Sep 13, 2012
• FOMC Central Tendencies 2012-2015, long-run Unemp 8.11 7.70 6.98 6.38 5.60 Uemp change 2012-2014 long-run +0.01-0.01-0.30 0.00 $$ Sep 13, 2012
• FOMC Central Tendencies 2012-2015, long-run GDP 1.84 2.78 3.4 3.39 2.44 GDP change 2012-2014 long-run -0.29 +0.210 +0.12, 0.00 $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Budeeah, budeeah, budeeah, That’s all folks! Sep 13, 2012
• Something happened around 2:30, but what? Sep 13, 2012
• Press seems feistier than usual at the Bernanke Presser $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Wow, a 2% move in gold qualifies as “explodes?” Wow #verbinflation http://t.co/8hodDxcp Sep 13, 2012
• Extends low FF to mid-2015, ~9 months Sep 13, 2012
• Fed’s web server is paralyzed, overwhelmed Sep 13, 2012
• Ding! It’s SHOWTIME, Ben! $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Bernanke Proves Like No Other Fed Chairman on Joblessness http://t.co/qHWtJv7W Bernanke imagines that he is fighting recession $$ Sep 12, 2012
• Fed Stuck at Zero Into 2015 Seen in Swaps, QE Odds Reach 99% http://t.co/IM6HBDQR Given that fixed income mkts anticipate: no QE effect $$ Sep 10, 2012
• An idea better kept in reserve http://t.co/ujKFy1Vc When u r playing around near the zero bound, all sorts crazy things could happen $$ Sep 10, 2012

 

US Politics and Economics

 

• US Consumer Price Index Increases by Most Since 2009 http://t.co/6u2Di5r4 Given the unlimited QE, hard to see why prices should be weak $$ Sep 14, 2012
• Airbrushed History and Dusted-Off Promises http://t.co/gMetXbgi Obama promised much more in 2008-9 than he is owning up to now. $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Household Income Sinks to ’95 Level http://t.co/LA6pnEC3 R U better off than 4 years ago? Mean, yes. Median, no. $$ Sep 13, 2012
• In Chicago, the Teachers’ Last Stand http://t.co/3uAcUJZT Bad news for the teachers, given underfunded DB plan, $$ struggles will worsen Sep 13, 2012
• This is Illinois after all…corruption & bad mgmt r normal. Teachers fear 4 their unfunded pensions & high $$ jobs. http://t.co/KVWIURuV Sep 13, 2012
• About Those Policies That Got Us Into This Mess http://t.co/cUDmsUJy Interesting: many of the critical laws were signed by Democrats $$ Sep 13, 2012
• White House pushes back on claims from Woodward book http://t.co/IPpUUGXg The fiscal crisis was Obama’s fault as well as Congress’ fault $$ Sep 12, 2012
• Strike Puts Spotlight on Teacher Evaluation, Pay http://t.co/MJ0A4pCt Break the union and hire non-union teachers who r motivated $$ Sep 12, 2012
• Stagnant Incomes Signal Restraint in Spending by U.S. Consumers http://t.co/uiBxYBzM Y b aggressive spending when policy is uncertain $$ Sep 10, 2012
• Why Health Care Matters and the Current Debt Does Not http://t.co/yw4MLv6o Because the healthcare unfunded liabilities r a LOT BIGGER $$ Sep 10, 2012

 

Other

 

• #FF @TALENTEDBLONDE @prieur @rcwhalen @AmyResnick @AnnieLowrey @brucekrasting @derekhernquist @fundmyfund @ftalpha @BloombergNews $$ Sep 14, 2012
• Children of Single Parents Much More Likely in Poverty http://t.co/PbaJuoGU “Dog Bites Man” Two parents r normally stronger than one $$ Sep 13, 2012
• The Manhattan Project to End Fad Diets http://t.co/NvkkihYt Sounds promising, but there is 2 much $$ & wishful thinking w/fad diets Sep 13, 2012
• Michael Pettis publishes! It’s a great night! $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Charities Deceive Donors Unaware Money Goes to a Telemarketer http://t.co/vKXjfU7K Don’t ever give money to a charity over the phone $$ Sep 12, 2012
• Medics Being All They Can Be Find Civilian Job Barriers http://t.co/p7gZbgNT Vets have to have a way to transist to civilian work $$ Sep 12, 2012
• Is College a Lousy Investment? http://t.co/GoKcgrLB It depends. If u r in the top 20%, no. If u r in next 20%, maybe. Otherwise, yes $$ Sep 12, 2012
• 13 Tools To Tame Social Media Overload http://t.co/UYXZUMAt A variety of programs that can stiffen your resolve to avoid wasting time $$ Sep 11, 2012
• Why the New Marketing-Driven Corporate Research Lab Needs the CIO http://t.co/d8wWCDJc Research, Development & Marketing belong together Sep 10, 2012
• Letting Babies Cry a Bit Is OK http://t.co/UmqwwLbl Babies stop crying (leave aside pain/sickness) when crying does not get rewarded $$ Sep 10, 2012

 

Energy

 

• Wind is intermittent, advances in batteries that can store energy are also needed. http://t.co/eBsqqW5y Sep 13, 2012
• Asian Water Scarcity Risked as Coal-Fired Power Embraced http://t.co/C4QQXAQm The need for water is forcing tough choices in India $$ Sep 11, 2012
• Gamechanging Natural Gas Tech Gets Green Light http://t.co/tiI2hiu2 Methane hydrates r recoverable; triples existing oil & NG reserves $$ Sep 10, 2012
• Saudi Arabia Concerned About Rising Crude Prices http://t.co/f3eUmId0 High quality problem, but how much can the Saudis a4d 2cut back $$ Sep 10, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

• Swiss Farmers Clash With Traders as Bubble Builds in Town of Zug http://t.co/EjPUX0Pa Another report from the Bubble caused by the SNB $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Skip College Is Top Advice for World-Beating Koreans http://t.co/YQ9DKAZO Any strategy to improve your lot can be overused, even college $$ Sep 12, 2012
• Less-Rosy Reality http://t.co/HfidgmGM This current round of euro-optimism will wear badly with time. Cash flows will dictate reality $$ Sep 11, 2012
• Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap? http://t.co/PLB8ER7i How technology is killing the Asian growth miracle http://t.co/ue15U4sd $$ Sep 10, 2012
• Hollande Challenges Unions on Labor Law as Stagnation Sets In http://t.co/xRBJdqdt Pretty tough to start fighting w/base w/low poll #s $$ Sep 10, 2012
• Why Merkel Wants To Keep Greece in Euro Zone http://t.co/b3cTiHfq It is cheaper in the short run than bailing out the banks $$ Sep 10, 2012

 

Companies

 

• Why Ruane Cunniff & Weitz Funds Like Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) http://t.co/QBLd8SGV Combination of Pharma co, & asset-stripper $$ Sep 14, 2012
• Andrew Ross Sorkin?s Bad Math on AIG http://t.co/pHdsYWRV Notes tax favors $AIG received, could have mentioned forgiven bailout terms $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Legg Mason CEO to Leave Amid Pressure http://t.co/PB4ZxKCj $LM was better in the past, when they did not rely on fund mgmt as much $$ Sep 12, 2012
• David Merkel: Why You Will Never Be Buffett http://t.co/iPfn9Gxo @reformedbroker features two of my articles on Buffett. Thanks, Josh $$ Sep 12, 2012
• Ship Magnate Uses Gut in $11 Billion Bet Worst Since ?70s Ending http://t.co/f5BGyDoZ Long article on the gamblin’ head of $FRO & $SDRL $$ Sep 10, 2012

 

On Bailouts

 

• Two notes on the bailouts: first, those saying the US Govt made $$ on the bailouts are not counting in Fannie & Freddie Sep 11, 2012
• Second: they aren’t counting the cost of capital: had they invested $$ at the same time in a 50/50 mix stocks/bonds would’ve made much more Sep 11, 2012
• So, aside from encouraging future moral hazard, the bailouts lost $$. Strictly on a moral basis, the govt should not play favorites. Sep 11, 2012

 

China

 

• The Communist Party?s Big Problem? It?s Not Bo Xilai http://t.co/BXRshBNQ Publication of a long, critical commentary of CCP direction $$ Sep 13, 2012
• Shadow Bankers Vanishing Leave China Victims Seeing Scams http://t.co/4RmbjG8d When bankers flee, go B/K, commit suicide: not good sign $$ Sep 13, 2012
• China’s Revolution Risk http://t.co/lzs5k5ll One has to remember that not all risks are simple and economically rational. $$ Sep 12, 2012

 

Replies

• @BarbarianCap @derekhernquist Thanks much. Don’t know what to say. 🙂 $$ Sep 15, 2012
• @derekhernquist You’re welcome, Derek. I appreciate following you, & you following me. Why did I start the blog? To give something back $$ Sep 15, 2012
• @moorehn Yeah, I know. I just Googled a few phrases from your show to see what would come up. Sorry that that did. Sep 15, 2012
• @moorehn Rush Limbaugh also used “It’s like a sugar high.” 4 QE yesterday on his radio show http://t.co/BhS48hxN No, I don’t listen 2 him $$ Sep 15, 2012
• @ritholtz Yes. First time but there are other cases in the works $$ Sep 14, 2012
• @LaMonicaBuzz Definitely the latter. Full disclosure: long $SPLS $$ Sep 13, 2012
• @JamesGRickards Confidence comes from a strong balance sheet & sustainable economic policies Sep 13, 2012
• @XQuickFixX That figure is for average over a lifetime. Sep 13, 2012
• @XQuickFixX “average BA college degree makes ($52,200)” Link? Sounds too high Sep 13, 2012
• @wsquared58 Good for you Sep 13, 2012
• @TheStalwart Cool, well, we will watch and see to the EOD Sep 13, 2012
• @TheStalwart Are you forecasting the immediate move, say, 15 minutes, or to the end of the day? Sep 13, 2012
• . @Nonrelatedsense Browne’s system is simple, like a VW bug. Bridgewater is like a Maserati in comparison. Both are elegant AA ideas $$ Sep 13, 2012
• @waughkd I have been to SD once in my life; my brother lived on an Indian reservation there 4 years. The physics of wind power is tough $$ Sep 13, 2012
• @XQuickFixX It used to be that that earned below median incomes; now they earn above median; it’s the pensions that r really high Sep 13, 2012
• @munilass Thanks for tweeting that; I have had a lifelong interest in prime numbers, though the math here is beyond me. Sep 13, 2012
• @GaelicTorus I’ve debated that; I sometimes do negative book reviews. More often it doesn’t get a review. Sep 13, 2012
• @GaelicTorus Book isn’t out yet, not seeking a copy. Sometimes I get books I did not request, e.g., Hank Paulson’s book & didn’t review $$ Sep 13, 2012
• @GaelicTorus former employee of $GS who left, purportedly because his ideals were shattered as $GS changed 2b more mercenary $$ Sep 13, 2012
• @JacobWolinsky thanks 4 that data point. traded away most of my commodity stocks a while ago. Did not want to be a hog. $$ Sep 13, 2012
• @JacobWolinsky If China’s growth materially reduces, many commodities will have a hard time. Sep 13, 2012
• @groditi I could convert it to a PDF and send it to you just e-mail me at david.merkel@gmail.com Sep 13, 2012
• Commented on StockTwits: I never use stops. Never. I just buy, hold, and sell after a few years. I you choose well,… http://t.co/HXgjGxic Sep 12, 2012
• @TheStalwart Car chases go on a lot longer because other cars pull over for the police $$ Sep 12, 2012
• @MarkDampier I’m skeptical too… $BLK is big enough to be able to get good executions for clients. They shouldn’t have to use ETFs $$ Sep 12, 2012
• @BradErvin1 You can’t do that. The only thing you can rely on is that glutted sectors will always return less than non-glutted sectors. $$ Sep 12, 2012
• .@BradErvin1 The crisis came from capital misallocation. The bailouts tossed more capital into sectors that were glutted already. Not C-P $$ Sep 11, 2012
• @Oval54 comes back w/interest to special interests, not to the average person Sep 11, 2012
• @EddyElfenbein Can’t be any other way. My first statistics professor told us on on day 1: “Statistics is a meeean profession.” $$ #malehumor Sep 11, 2012
• @BoydRoddy @finemrespice Funny thing is that Federal Reserve did not talk publicly about the life cos, but sys risk during $AIG crisis $$ Sep 11, 2012
• @finemrespice @BoydRoddy Agreed, it wasn’t the sole reason. Systemic effects of AIGFP, and do you hae a link on the FRC Basel issue? Sep 11, 2012
• @finemrespice @BoydRoddy AIG’s Domestic Life companies lost all of their surplus when the AAA subprime RMBS underlying sec lending failed $$ Sep 11, 2012
• @cabaum1 Quirk of Twitter, no #FM, #FT, #FW, #FTh, #FSa, or #FSu, only #FF for “Follow Friday,” & people typically only do #FF on Friday Sep 10, 2012

 

Retweets

 

• US Govt outsources a lot RT @paulvieira:Joe Biden Calls Outsourcing “Not Bad If You’re Running A Company” http://t.co/vB42Feia via @buzzfeed Sep 14, 2012
• RE: @bloombergview Bernanke should do the right thing: admit that he is wrong, and resign. http://t.co/1R5mxQw9 Sep 13, 2012
• RE: @bloombergview Doing the same thing again and again, and expecting a different result.? You back an insane moneta? http://t.co/73aZFlFI Sep 13, 2012
• I’m in the stagflation camp too $$ RT @BubblesandBusts: @alephblog I’ll take the under on GDP and over on unemployment and inflation Sep 13, 2012
• RT @KeithMcCullough: Maybe one of the saddest days in American economic history; history wont forget this Sep 13, 2012
• RT @credittrader: THIS!! RT @PragCapitalist: Bernanke basically just described the theory that asset bubbles are good for the economy…. $$ Sep 13, 2012
• I tend to agree $$ RT @Nonrelatedsense:I think any allocation model faces a challenge today. Those two face more than they have in the past. Sep 13, 2012
• Creation of credit has never brought prosperity. U r deluded $$ RT @BloombergView: Bernanke, You have no excuse | http://t.co/KwoPTjCJ Sep 13, 2012
• As my Dad would say, for “socks & underwear” too $$ RT @pdacosta: Fed Chairman Bernanke spotted at Wal-Mart. Shopping for kitchen sink. Sep 13, 2012
• Best since Paulson, including Hank $$ RT @pegobry: Geithner: best Treasury Sec in decades? Sep 12, 2012
• RT @wesbury: It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the spending. It’s the … Sep 12, 2012
• Performance art, yes $$ RT @TheStalwart: I think I might like to attend this conference, merely as performance art. http://t.co/PO6fzBp6 Sep 11, 2012
• RT @dwotapka: RT @AskMiles: My mother used to say I’d get bored with pizza if I had it every day. My mother was wrong. Sep 11, 2012
• At least those that cite the labor force participation rate $$ RT @TheStalwart: U-6ers are the truthers of the economics profession. Sep 11, 2012
• RE: @bloombergview Same is true of Obama.? We face gridlock regardless of who gets elected. http://t.co/jGXTXoLI Sep 11, 2012
• RT @annasacca: “Anyone wanting to learn about private equity would benefit from The New Tycoons by @jasonkellynews” http://t.co/xaF7HhLf $$ Sep 11, 2012
• RT @BoydRoddy: Sole reason for AIG rescue: Sec.Lending undisclosed scheme under Neuger imperiled largest Life co’s in the world. No Life … Sep 11, 2012
• As a happy user for around 2 years, I salute you; to my readers, look into getting free Opendns. $$ RT @opendns: Thanks for the RT! Sep 10, 2012
• RT @opendns: We’re hearing reports that OpenDNS #SmartCache is helping OpenDNS users get to sites otherwise down during @godaddy #outage … Sep 10, 2012