Federal Reserve Policy / Treasury Yields

 

• Great Tips-pectations http://t.co/nHWsNAFf Future inflation expectations are rising. Twenty year TIPS are flat to expected CPI $$ Sep 22, 2012
• ‘Titanic battle’ over deflation about to sink long bonds: Gross http://t.co/trPfwKj3 Didn’t he say this in 2011 & lose? Try, try, again? $$ Sep 22, 2012
• Lacy Hunt at Hoisington called the trajectory on Treasury yields years ahead of time. http://t.co/4e4Bu12W Sep 21, 2012
• Former FDIC chairman Sheila Bair: TARP wasn?t necessary http://t.co/m4zJMkc5 Would have been better to let stockholders get wiped out $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Fed?s Fisher Says U.S. Inflation Expectations Rising http://t.co/Qk4rUrNI Definitely: http://t.co/ZVA74EmF QEternal moved the TIPS $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Stephen Roach: Fed?s Asset Purchases Are A ?Charade? http://t.co/nX4xh3zt QE is a theory that has no successes; Y does anyone believe it? $$ Sep 20, 2012
• No Exit in Sight from Fed’s Bond Buying: Gundlach http://t.co/ULz27Bj8 It will be very difficult 4 the Fed 2 exit from their “stimulus” $$ Sep 20, 2012
• The Road to Recovery http://t.co/P6Uz7CGP John B. Taylor is the man who should have been our Fed Chairman, unlike the pretender Bernanke $$ Sep 18, 2012
• Fed’s ‘QE Infinity’: 4 Things That Could Go Wrong http://t.co/6CGNO5Yr Moral Hazard4Washington &Wall St, Hurting Confidence, May not work $$ Sep 16, 2012
• Bernanke?s Battle for Jobs Eclipses Inflation Concerns http://t.co/bhRvXhZD How QE-inf will produce jobs is a mystery; OTOH stagflation $$ Sep 16, 2012
• Mortgage-Bond Spreads Fall to Record Low as Fed Starts Buying http://t.co/LqcIYQhb Fed breaks agency RMBS mkt; some OASs drop to zero $$ Sep 16, 2012

 

Credit Markets

 

• Credit rollovers & rally monkeys http://t.co/z4KH46ky Feels like 2005 in corporates, but w/easier money, & fewer securitizations $$ Sep 22, 2012
• Company bond sales in US in Sept-12 total >$135.8B, fastest pace 4 any September & exceeds $124.6B sold in Sept-09 $$ http://t.co/EoKYwXrQ Sep 21, 2012
• Private Debt Is Crippling the Economy http://t.co/km06r7TW Deleveraging has not taken place 2 the degree needed 2make the economy healthy $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Risk Aversion Falls to Lowest Level in 2 Years http://t.co/ljJICAKM When risk measures r low, it is time to start being conservative. $$ Sep 18, 2012
• Junk-Bond Yields Drop Below 7% for First Time, Index Data Shows http://t.co/VQBCbmq3 This is significant. Watch 4 leverage 2 grow $$ Sep 18, 2012
• ETFs Overtaking Swaps for Junk-Bond Speculation http://t.co/DzTtYnKY If this continues, I suspect it will lead 2 ETF underperformance $$ Sep 17, 2012
• Cheaper Student Loans. Who Knew? http://t.co/ZYnRjQDl About 2.6% of all borrowers?are using income-based repayment $$ 15%, 15 years Sep 17, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

• China Slowdown Seen Longer Than in Crisis by State Economist http://t.co/At79Hrfn Will take a while reconcile a decade of malinvestment $$ Sep 21, 2012
• Japan launches QE8 as 20-year slump drags on http://t.co/J6hwv6rd Poster child 4 the efficacy of unlimited QE 4 economic stimulation $$ 🙁 Sep 20, 2012
• In Spain, economic crisis fans Catalan separatism http://t.co/amLe8qwU Good for them & may they create their own currency & not the euro $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Deposit Flight From Europe Banks Eroding Common Currency http://t.co/MwYRtlU3 Wouldn’t u withdraw deposits from Greek & Spanish banks? $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Missed Chances Stoke Skepticism Over EU?s Crisis Fight http://t.co/rvBEndvm Works other way: earlier the break-up, smaller the damage $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Sword-Bearing Islamist Signals Peril 4 Arab Democracies http://t.co/AXYYmzWn “Islam is a religion of peace” Overheard in a DC bar $$ Sep 20, 2012
• EU Track Record Casts Doubt on Crisis Fight as Draghi Rally Ebbs http://t.co/rvBEndvm You can’t solve debt problems with more debt $$ Sep 19, 2012
• Europe Takes On Gazprom at Last, Now Must Hang Tough http://t.co/tvFrJZ1k New delivery methods & supplies lessen need 4 Russian natgas $$ Sep 19, 2012
• Europe Banks Fail to Cut as Draghi Loans Defer Deleverage http://t.co/fEQdByYH Same thing for the Fed. $$ policy inhibiting delevering Sep 19, 2012
• Kaiser’s Postulate: Bringing Free Market Economics to South America http://t.co/61GS08I0 Brings an Austrian perspective 2 S. America $$ Sep 18, 2012
• US military suspends combat patrols with Afghan forces http://t.co/BaKxm4Xn In this chess game, there are some pieces that r gray. $$ Sep 18, 2012
• A little problem of maturity mismatch http://t.co/cBtSR1pC Many Chinese firms have financed long assets w/short debt. But how big is it? $$ Sep 18, 2012

 

Companies

 

• The guys at LTCM weren’t that good w/math. Part of being an applied mathematician is knowing limitations of your models http://t.co/ice9Diju Sep 21, 2012
• July 2012 severe enforcement actions; Capital One units pick up 3 http://t.co/ahdVPlpZ Interesting improving graph: http://t.co/jqwWxgCR $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Microsoft, HP skirted taxes via offshore units: Senate panel http://t.co/tT2F453n What u get 4 creating a complex tax code. FD: + $HPQ $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Bored? Consider this Total risk-taking value play http://t.co/Fioj9kEg FD: + $TOT very diversified geographically, seems cheap $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Insurers are middlemen. They just pass the costs on. They have no need to do climate research. $$ http://t.co/pekiI2V8 Sep 20, 2012
• Dow Corning Offers Workers Cold Showers w/Bugs to Build Sales http://t.co/u9lJIRPI Fascinating tales of voluntary adventures @ Dow Corning Sep 18, 2012

 

Politics

 

• Welfare Reform as We Knew It http://t.co/E4VuZ1js Inside the Obama work waiver: It’s worse than Romney says. $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Tortoises Manhandled for Solar Splits Environmentalists http://t.co/KyaQK3x0 Solar works well in sunny deserts: solar or tortoises $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Why the Current Account Deficit Helps Explain the Economics of QE3 http://t.co/QlsAejh1 Explains similarities between CA deficit & QE-inf $$ Sep 19, 2012
• Don?t Stick Taxpayers With Underfunded Corporate Pensions http://t.co/xj1VQMEn Against the liberalization of DB plan funding rules Sep 19, 2012
• Snip, snip, snip. Cutting up AARP membership cards. The Baby boomers ask for too much through Social Security & Medicare. $$ snip, done Sep 19, 2012
• Should the Eligibility Age for Medicare Be Raised? http://t.co/XlrNI3hR Yes, & by more than the suggestions in the article $$ Sep 19, 2012
• Election Uncertainty Raises Odds Of Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/jFJ8jSsB Regardless of who wins, there will be gridlock. $$ Sep 18, 2012
• Harry Reid Has a Glass-House Quandary on Taxes http://t.co/FbR1nlxl Let Congress begin doing detailed disclosure of their taxes $$ Sep 17, 2012

 

Economics

 

• Gold shines http://t.co/Mm98E660 & http://t.co/xVg4N2MI $$ Sep 21, 2012
• Big Data Upends the Way Workers Are Paid http://t.co/HzfrxhA6 Basic kindness & fairness goes a long way in retaining competent staff $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Do New Job Tests Foster Bias? http://t.co/lBSpwygr Maybe, but it does prevent many good people from getting hired. Ppl >> algorithms $$ Sep 20, 2012
• Harvard Losing Out to South Dakota in Graduate Pay http://t.co/UQcL5W1T Economics is relative; different things r valuable @ diff times $$ Sep 19, 2012

?

Finance

• Farmer?s Daughter Haugerud Reaps Riches on Drought-Struck Corn http://t.co/CVFuX7kZ Know I’ve read about her b4, can’t remember where $$ Sep 20, 2012
• For Superfast Stock Traders, a Way to Jump Ahead in Line http://t.co/hhJwKEdD This is important & may explain HFT & its profitability $$ Sep 19, 2012
• Fidelity’s Abby Johnson faces challenges on many fronts http://t.co/5UTmmfbm Fidelity not just mutual funds but retirement plan services $$ Sep 17, 2012
• When Playing It Safe Means Taking On More Risk http://t.co/6BtHsksh Safety is a function of price paid vs value & intrinsic solvency $$ Sep 16, 2012

Other

 

• 6 Reasons Why Evolution Isn’t A Sure Thing http://t.co/UQVZuzH0 7. Which evolution r u talking about? Many versions, low agreement btw them Sep 20, 2012
• Heavy rain in Baltimore now; supporting efforts to ship it to the Midwest $$ Sep 18, 2012

?

Responses

• RE: For areas where there is significant data, they do research. Lots of it.? The models are huge and complex. The e? http://t.co/M7L2ZbC6 Sep 21, 2012
• .@OVVOFinancial Part of what I am saying is economists don’t understand macro well. Free lunches rarely emerge; hard2remove accommodation $$ Sep 21, 2012
• @felixsalmon I give proportionate to income, so if I were in Romney’s situation, it is likely I would be giving more Sep 21, 2012
• . @OVVOFinancial I’m a skeptic. Economists didn’t expect stagflation in ’70s; did not tag the great moderation properly, or call the bust $$ Sep 21, 2012
• Why this doesn’t work: too many mortgages are inverted & there is too much supply that will appear as… http://t.co/iGzYEV6c Sep 21, 2012
• @fundmyfund If you can infinitely defer income recognition, or reclassify income, the tax rates don’t matter much $$ Sep 21, 2012
• “I want to clarify what I wrote on my your last post. It wasn’t one of my finer comments?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/l620hATS $$ Sep 21, 2012
• RE: @bloombergview This is another reason why the definition of income matters more than tax rates. Taxes deferred ar? http://t.co/Bkh3LGjT Sep 21, 2012
• RE: @bloombergview How do you distinguish between Dworkin who lost to Flynt, Carol Burnett who beat the National Enqu? http://t.co/FPSNGIE5 Sep 21, 2012
• @williamalden Interesting curiosity, but they don’t have much musical talent Sep 21, 2012
• @ianbremmer Not too surprising, U would probably get the same result in Vallejo, Stockton, Jefferson County, AL, & other bankrupt places $$ Sep 21, 2012
• “I hope they kill this one while it is little. Residential Rental Income ABS sounds like a disaster.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/srTbHgyT $$ Sep 20, 2012
• @e_d_sanders That wouldn’t surprise me, to me it is funny how we end up overriding law with administrative action Sep 20, 2012
• “I’ve owned $CVX for a long time for clients. $BRKB is interesting; I really like what Buffett does?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/l1GZGm3J $$ Sep 20, 2012
• . @hassankhan Sometimes there is research, sometimes it is little better than a guess. And yes, new insurance biz has sometimes lost $$ Sep 20, 2012
• . @hassankhan New coverages start with a guess. As claims emerge, pricing & terms adjust to reflect claim incidence & severity $$ Sep 20, 2012
• @Fullcarry People want to lock in a smaller loss Sep 20, 2012
• @dcarpenter14 Good point, thanks for making it Sep 19, 2012
• @XQuickFixX investors that buy & hoard 4 DB plans, ETFs, commodity funds, etc, even the SPR, that speculation does affect prices Sep 19, 2012
• @XQuickFixX Besides, prices r set at the margin — what it costs to get the next barrel. Last point, if speculators includes the commodity + Sep 19, 2012
• @XQuickFixX But the evidence in the article is hearsay. The extraction cost of $11/bbl looks really low. It has 2b higher than that. Sep 19, 2012
• @XQuickFixX 2 thoughts: 1) my reform for derivative markets is hedgers must initiate all trades. Speculators can’t trade with each other Sep 19, 2012
• I don’t believe the oil market is manipulated. It’s too big;keep the bid price too high, they will sell you a lot of ? http://t.co/oKOTecFE Sep 19, 2012
• @izakaminska Thanks, Izabella. My best to all at FT Alphaville. $$ Sep 19, 2012
• @izakaminska I admire you all at ft alpha, you write about big things that many of us miss; I would work with u all if u wanted me $$ Sep 19, 2012
• RE: Average people can’t invest well & can’t get longevity insurance at a fair price. DB plans r better than DC plans? http://t.co/ClMRmrUH Sep 18, 2012
• RE: Sorry, public pensions are not included; their rules are weaker than this. Also, no PBGC for muni DB plans. $$ http://t.co/PHnzUlXi Sep 18, 2012
• @moorehn The eyewitness accounts of the life of Jesus would have noted a wife; Peter had 1. http://t.co/TeIiDodQ Definitive scholarly book Sep 18, 2012
• “I disagree, mostly. Value is often its own catalyst. People ignore many low P/E stocks just b/c?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/spWdEhSn $$ Sep 18, 2012
• @LDrogen low likelihood, high severity Sep 18, 2012
• “”How long until a producer comes in yelling, ?wait?wait, he?s just a loud-mouth with a blog?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/ww2r59BZ $$ Sep 18, 2012
• @rcwhalen We had 3 & adopted 5. Used zone defense metaphor 2 explain it 2 guys. W/a zone u r rules-based; need more rules w/more kids. $$ Sep 18, 2012
• @groditi The only thing that gives me pause is that my old friends from my bond manager days r still constructive on HY http://t.co/egOXLBWo Sep 18, 2012
• “Exactly. I read the same piece, and for some reason I didn’t comment on their lack of understanding.” http://t.co/W2n3pwcQ $$ Sep 18, 2012
• Exactly. Every asset they inflate, inflates liabilities for those who fund them.? Commodities rise due 2 financial re? http://t.co/0HL1L9cq Sep 18, 2012
• @TheStalwart Pie charts provide the least information of any type of graph, I think that’s why the chart nerds like them less $$ Sep 18, 2012
• @MikeLanter Yes, THE ELEPHANT! Sep 16, 2012
• “Well said. My but the Fed has become an elephant in the agency RMBS market” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/FWZ5ngNu $$ Sep 16, 2012

?

Retweets

• If we don’t get stagflation RT @OVVOFinancial @Vermeer1097 Martingale works for Fed playing w/o table limits and unlimited balance sheet. $$ Sep 21, 2012
• RT @SullyCNBC: Instead of being angry at individuals for paying the least amount in taxes they legally owe..be angry at Congress for our … Sep 21, 2012
• Double down, BABY!! $$ RT @Vermeer1097: @AlephBlog Bubbles Bernank simply using a very old betting system: the Martingale. Sep 21, 2012
• You can either think binary or not $$ RT @daveinbawlmer: @AlephBlog @ritholtz a sort of binary way of thinking about being binary Sep 21, 2012
• There r only 10 types of people in the world, those get binary & the rest RT @ritholtz: Either you believe the world is binary or you don’t Sep 21, 2012
• RT @researchpuzzler: RT @DDInvesting: An Open Letter to CFOs Across America http://t.co/78ubGzqL ~ must read, for investors as well as C … Sep 19, 2012
• RT @prchovanec: When will Chinese authorities figure out that developing new financing vehicles does not change underlying asset quality? $$ Sep 19, 2012
• Bigtime $$ RT @historysquared: Chinese banks are ?the nexus for? all of this credit-driven investment.” ~ Jim Chanos Sep 18, 2012
• What reputation? Perpetuating a bad idea $$ RT @credittrader: Tuesday Humor – *JUNCKER SAYS GREECE EURO EXIT WOULD HARM EURO REPUTATION Sep 18, 2012
• +1 RT @ReformedBroker: ?When we encounter pain, we are at an important juncture in our decision-making process.? http://t.co/x8hjUYB4 $$ Sep 18, 2012
• RT @groditi: @AlephBlog i’d much rather hold some decent stocks w/ good FCF/Earnings yields and an overweight cash position the the same … Sep 18, 2012
• Well-stated $$ RT @felixsalmon: #Romneyshambles: the conservative take is no less damning. http://t.co/H6H3etqh Sep 18, 2012
• You said it $$ RT @BoydRoddy: You get the feeling that @John_Hempton is having fun with $FMCN a la a Cat and a stalked mouse? Yeah, me too. Sep 18, 2012
• You betcha. BTW, @soberlook has posted http://t.co/pfSscLH1 good stuff RT @merrillmatter: not buying any MBS here $$ Sep 16, 2012