Insurance
- Insurers Must Boost Reserves for Residential Mortgage Bonds http://t.co/z1Plcc9z Pretty trivial; change small, not worth making $$ Oct 26, 2012
- The Randian and the Bailout http://t.co/45wGJSo2 Without a tax gift from the US Tsy, $AIG couldn’t pay off the bailout http://t.co/2O4k7vpA Oct 25, 2012
- For that last tweet, full disclosure, long $AIZ for clients and me Oct 24, 2012
- Assurant Reports 3rd Quarter 2012 Financial Results http://t.co/pTbHUunV Over 8.75 yrs $AIZ has shrunk its share count from 142M to 78M $$ Oct 24, 2012
- Weschler Rise From Grace Leads to Role Advising Buffett http://t.co/uUlYUPVK Interesting tale of a guy who can deal4 & value companies $$ Oct 22, 2012
- Goldman Sachs Creates a Dividend+Buybacks Measure, & 4 Insurer Stocks Shine http://t.co/myQ8Ga1e I own 2 of them 4 clients. Which 2? $$ Oct 22, 2012
Central Banking
- Here Comes the Dollar Wave Again http://t.co/5EO5Ejve Defend exports, import inflation, asset bubbles “Our currency, but your problem.” Oct 25, 2012
- Approach risks ?distorting? decisions & ?it might be economically inefficient 2try2 push prices up so much,? Shiller http://t.co/Bs5GJPGX Oct 24, 2012
- Redacted Version of the October 2012 FOMC Statement http://t.co/2jOMkLje Note: CPI inflation is at 2%, also inflation expectations rising $$ Oct 24, 2012
- FOMC Statement: http://t.co/E2BOFdrr Oct 24, 2012
- “We fail 2c the direct link, or even an indirect link, btw the size of the Fed’s balance sheet & the unemp rate” http://t.co/bM149U5Z $$ Oct 24, 2012
- Buffett: ‘”I get a little worried about continuously expanding” the Fed’s balance sheet, he said on CNBC.’ http://t.co/KWIVYBIS $$ Oct 24, 2012
- Traders Calling Singer?s Bluff on Intervention as Koruna Gains http://t.co/Y1ml4EZ4 Czech National Bank playing with fire, will burn $$ Oct 22, 2012
- Would mean that the external effect of loose monetary policy have been played out, & the next big move is coming (but from where)? $$ Oct 22, 2012
- Worst Carry Trades Show Central Banks at Stimulus Limit http://t.co/IDxi6uVq Interesting thought: if carrytraders can’t make money… $$ Oct 22, 2012
Fiscal Cliff
- Firms Hit Brakes Before Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/z1Plcc9z Tap brakes is more like it. Most think we won’t go over the cliff #gridlock $$ Oct 26, 2012
- Aha! Here’s The REAL Reason Corporate Executives Are Freaking Out About The Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/oS8VZpsi Favors initiatives of Dems $$ Oct 22, 2012
Other
- How Supap Kirtsaeng?s Textbooks Idea Led to Supreme Court http://t.co/h1CDWk1q What rights exist to re-sell something that you bought? $$ Oct 26, 2012
- The Plot to Destroy America’s Beer http://t.co/3ElPpvvx A tale of cost-cutting, quality reductions. Light beers ascendant. $$ Oct 26, 2012
- Sandy Nears Jamaica, Forecasters Weigh New England Threat http://t.co/R1HNSDm8 High Incidence, Low Power 4 Tropical Storms in 2012 $$ Oct 24, 2012
- Calling All Germs http://t.co/BkfuReQq Cellphones Are Great for Sharing Photos?and Bacteria; Cleaning May Harm Screens $$ Oct 23, 2012
- Romney?s Air Force Comparison Misses U.S. Edge in Jets http://t.co/3lFkg4KL There r some situations where more lower tech jets would help Oct 24, 2012
- Dean, Marathon Split-Offs on Tap http://t.co/m5OLbAuI Post-split $DF looks interesting, if boring. More room 2 focus $$ Oct 22, 2012
Energy
- Shale Glut Becomes $2 Diesel Using Gas-to-Liquids Plants http://t.co/sjUDsrVK This is the Holy Grail, because gasoline is tough2produce $$ Oct 26, 2012
- The internal combustion engine is far from dead http://t.co/Ewa60lrw Most real improvements in energy efficiency deal w/fossil fuels $$ Oct 22, 2012
- Americans Buying Fewer New Cars in Lifetime http://t.co/viB6dIlU long-term probably not a good sign; autos drive a lot of the economy $$ Oct 22, 2012
- The Myth of Affordable Energy – Interview with Ed Dolan http://t.co/8jWI1faC Energy efficiency is increasing. Full cost pricing desirable $$ Oct 20, 2012
Demographics
- Russian Funds Band Together to Repel Government Cash Grab http://t.co/72KWo3Bg Gotta b careful on pension funds cuz govts like 2 raid them Oct 26, 2012
- More Americans delaying retirement until their 80s http://t.co/dZM4Tmqm This is the way it should be. Retirement s/b 4-5 years at most Oct 25, 2012
- Can Japan?s Elderly Become Its Growth Engine? http://t.co/eqhsu54i This seems like wishful thinking to me. Spending from savings <> wages $$ Oct 24, 2012
Financials
- U.S. securities regulator questions need for new broker standard http://t.co/iNUVJKIp Extending fiduciary standards 2 brokers in question Oct 24, 2012
- Forcing frequent failures http://t.co/OL6WSfOM @interfluidity hits a home run in dealing with bank failures, & how to regulate Oct 24, 2012
- Low Rates Pummel Banks http://t.co/577Fsc1i Borrowers Benefit, but Industry Lending Profits Hit Lowest Level in Three Years $$ Oct 23, 2012
- Marsico: When Going Private Goes Wrong http://t.co/Vxyc40u7 June 2007 was the wrong time 2 LBO, then performance lags $$ My sympathies2them Oct 23, 2012
- 3 key money topics Romney-Obama debates ignored http://t.co/7j79IQ4V Housing prices, Investor protections & Retirement Savings $$ Oct 23, 2012
- The end of stock market crashes? http://t.co/VjIALNEm I’m sorry, but the conclusion is bogus. Even if its works, only some could escape $$ Oct 23, 2012
- Mortgage risks underestimated, economists conclude http://t.co/TFDpqz70 FHA uses a model that leads it to underestimate delinquency risk $$ Oct 22, 2012
- Annaly Says Michael Farrell Dies After Cancer Diagnosed http://t.co/n5VNgi8m He was kind2me ~2000; willing2share ideas w/little me $$ $NLY Oct 22, 2012
- Mortgage REITs: Not Just Yet http://t.co/20kPVBs2 I would be careful here & reduce exposure… they are always unstable vehicles $$ Oct 21, 2012
- The Winner for Investors Is… http://t.co/eBQM5Ws4 @jasonzweigwsj points out the connection between returns & politics is tenuous $$ Oct 21, 2012
Economy
- Firings Highest Since 2010 as Ford to Dow Face Slump http://t.co/9q87q63I This is the US economy. We can’t support workers relative2profit Oct 26, 2012
- Weak Tea at Unilever Persists Amid Innovation at Rivals http://t.co/ryqjkEof Did not even know that Lipton was a Unilever brand $$ $UL $UN Oct 24, 2012
- Doom Heralded at Hayman by Widening Trade Deficit: Japan Credit http://t.co/CZS09whs Japan?s debt is the ?cleanest dirty shirt.? Not. $$ Oct 23, 2012
- Hunger Stalks My Father?s India Long After Starvation End http://t.co/dkVTXxaO Long article, makes me grateful that I can feed my kids $$ Oct 23, 2012
- Electrolux, Philips Warn Of US Slowdown http://t.co/6k5hxTe2 Another soggy data point; less demand 4 bigger-ticket consumer items $$ Oct 22, 2012
Retweets
- Ya, true RT @glenntyrpa: @barnejek @AlephBlog @sikorskiradek Yea. When did Japan invade China? Was that 1930? 🙂 we Americans forget. Oct 26, 2012
- RT @PragCapitalist: Today’s financial tip: don’t ever buy a boat. Instead, find a friend with a boat. If necessary, buy the friend. … Oct 24, 2012
- Clever RT @BradErvin1: @AlephBlog @PragCapitalist This is Buffett, courtesy legacy @kevindepew articles @Minyanville http://t.co/dGTNG9kl $$ Oct 24, 2012
- Stinks, just stinks RT @ritholtz: THE SELLSIDE: SAME AS IT EVER WAS Courthouse News Service http://t.co/K9LDmj5m via @CourthouseNews $$ Oct 24, 2012
- RT @KathrynTully: The last of Sarah Thornton’s top reasons for quitting art market surely belongs in top 10 reasons not to be a journo. … Oct 24, 2012
- RT @emckean: LOVE THIS RT @aniajakubek: There’s a Polish saying that means “Not my problem” & literally translates to “Not my circus … Oct 24, 2012
- SIFMA gets an infamous big name to speak to them RT @LaurenLaCapra: #greenspan http://t.co/rjVlCfV5 Oct 23, 2012
- At my house too RT @retheauditors: Halloween is dead to me. Oct 22, 2012
Replies
- #FF @NickTimiraos @carney @grossdm @annsaphir @ritholtz @ToddSullivan @PlanMaestro @RolfeWinkler @LaurenLaCapra @davidgaffen @jennablan $$ Oct 27, 2012
- @TraderNewsFeed No, I don’t think that. I think we should enjoy our work, and enjoy it for as long as we can, until we can no longer work $$ Oct 26, 2012
- @rjwile True, but that’s the price of not saving enough. There is no right to a retirement. Someone send the EU the memo. $$ Oct 26, 2012
- @OVVOFinancial I largely agree. Reducing the real value of debts would help. My only fear is that nominal incomes might not grow much $$ Oct 25, 2012
- @OVVOFinancial Missed that, thanks. Still, the Chain-weighted PCE deflator is 1.5% yoy at present. Oct 25, 2012
- @barnejek oops Oct 24, 2012
- @PragCapitalist A boat is a hole in the water into which you pour money $$ That said, the recession created a lot of used boats 4 sale Oct 24, 2012
- @tebaho I am not a Romney backer Oct 24, 2012
- @EddyElfenbein lifted the stake above 50% by 1995. Oct 24, 2012
- @EddyElfenbein In 1977, GEICO was ~6% of his public investments, before $BRK.B acquired 33% of the company by 1980, and buybacks + Oct 24, 2012
- @EddyElfenbein In 1981, GEICO was ~30% of his public investments — no data on how big his private investments were then $BRK.B $$ Oct 24, 2012
- @EddyElfenbein 1996-7 around 16% of pretax income. Prior to that, it was not wholly owned, and so Buffett acctd 4 it as an investment $$ Oct 24, 2012
- @EddyElfenbein $BRK.B would not want to live without GEICO, but in my opinion, it could live without it Oct 24, 2012
- @EddyElfenbein It’s about 5% of BRK’s pretax profits. The float it generates is very short and is only 5% of liabilities. Oct 24, 2012
- @PragCapitalist It’s a conglomerate fueled by a set of huge insurance companies, where assets r sourced privately & publicly $$ $BRK.B Oct 24, 2012
- @PlanMaestro @aarontask @TheStalwart I think it is spurious correlation b/c I c many other variable that r weak. US economy is flat. $$ Oct 24, 2012
- @felixsalmon In the NT Greek, there r2 words for God’s will, &1 tells u God ordains everything, the other, he doesn’t approve everything Oct 24, 2012
- @CflGator I would ask the question, how is $TGT going to deploy the capital? The answer probably lies there. Oct 24, 2012
- @LDrogen America’s politicians have always made appeals based on religion, & then abandoned the religious voters that support them (not new) Oct 24, 2012
- @joshuademasi I realize with Japan, it is unlikely 4 there 2b an external default, until the external debt gets big enough Oct 24, 2012
- @aarontask This is a stock versus flow issue. The banks reap capital gains now, but it will reduce their future interest margins/income $$ Oct 24, 2012
- @CflGator Think they are trying to free up capital for alternative uses. Oct 24, 2012
- @LDrogen But all people have unprovable a priori opinions, and many will affect their views on public policy, whether “religious” or not Oct 24, 2012
- @LDrogen It becomes the same paradox that philosophers go through with respect to the concept of free will vs determinism Oct 24, 2012
- @LDrogen Even 2a Christian like me, God’s will is a highly nuanced, b/c there r 2 words in NT Greek 4 “will” & they mean different things Oct 24, 2012
- @LDrogen One of my close friends came into existence as a result of a rape. Two good people adopted him; biological mother was courageous Oct 24, 2012
- . @aarontask will look for it — if anyone has a link 2 it, pass it 2 me Oct 24, 2012
- @joshuademasi Nations with their own currencies don’t have to default on debts. I think some will choose to default for political reasons $$ Oct 23, 2012
- “This brings up something @ritholtz would say ~ blog traffic goes up during a crisis?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/9U0OxjLe $$ Oct 23, 2012
- @joshuademasi Not sure he will lose; he has a decent chance of being correct. Japan has preceded the global economy for past 20 years $$ Oct 23, 2012
- “5. Tadas, as you have said before, investment/finance blogging is hard. And many of the best of us?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/EuaE0hmB Oct 23, 2012
- @StephenShiflett I distrust polls generally. I am not a Romney supporter. Most statistical comments in the media r not well-founded $$ Oct 23, 2012
- @StephenShiflett Stratification matters more. The size was smaller than most polls I c, & instant senses of who 1r often not correct Oct 23, 2012
- @DUNNER2 @CBSNews Now there was a poll that no one asked for, the sample size was far too small, but actually had a real impact. Sad. Oct 23, 2012
- @Shwaver should be more like 5% if the poll is well stratified, and most polls aren’t Oct 23, 2012
- @thejudge1082 @cbsnews I would criticize that as well. Most polls are too small and not well stratified Oct 23, 2012
- @nmariecrumbie @DJDougMadrid @cbsnews I am *not* a backer of Romney. I am voting for the Constitution Party. I am a statistician, are you? Oct 23, 2012
- @Justsaying1104 @CBSNews size *always* matters. I am a statisticiam by training. The hyper-short news cycle forced out a poll Oct 23, 2012
- @Justsaying1104 @cbsnews of course size matters — what I object to is trying to get instant answers to what people are thinking $$ Oct 23, 2012
- @ituzzip On a 500 person poll the error bounds are wider +/- 5%. But Rs answer polls less often than Ds. Oct 23, 2012
- @JW28 Sorry, I am not a Romney backer Oct 23, 2012
- @DJDougMadrid I don’t believe in instant, & I am voting 3rd party. Oct 23, 2012
- @StephenShiflett Most polls I see are double that, it was still small, given the short time after the debate. Oct 23, 2012
- @CBSNews Small sample size Oct 23, 2012
- @TheStalwart I think you are fair and balanced, because A third of the time I agree, a third I disagree, and a third I an in-between. $$ Oct 23, 2012
- @wallstCS FD: long $SFG — You do realize that revenue is not a useful valuation metric for insurers, right? Earnings & Book r relevant $$ Oct 22, 2012
- @groditi @GaelicTorus it drives a lot of technology development, materials science, design (or lack thereof), advertising, energy efficiency Oct 22, 2012
- @BradErvin1 No, the point is that corrupt governments tend to spawn corruption in society Oct 20, 2012
Will AIZ be able to survive the changes that need to be made in 2013?
Yes, but it will be rough. Assurant is clever.