Sorted Weekly Tweets – The Aleph Blog

Posted on 2 November 2012 by David Merkel

Rest of the World

Wrong: Panic Spreading Across Nations Outranks Trade http://t.co/TbYGmdlL The panic is rational. 2 much debt that cannot b paid back $$ Nov 03, 2012
Hong Kong Taxing Homebuyers in Bubble Fight http://t.co/4xEwAl7R Would that other nations had tried this rather than encouraging debt $$ Nov 03, 2012
http://t.co/gj6va2hE China’s 18th Communist Party Congress convenes in Beijing on 11/8 4a once-a-decade leadership change $$ Infographic Nov 01, 2012
Hollande Ducks as French Industry Bleeds Jobs http://t.co/nyQ89HaH If France doesn’t change, the Eurozone eventually will fall apart $$ Oct 31, 2012
Italy in political chaos as election nears http://t.co/fAE84PLn Italy exists 2 flesh out dictionary definitions of corruption & instability Oct 31, 2012
Ortega Tops Buffett With Zara Fortune of $53.6 Billion http://t.co/2uE9xajS Tough 2 make that much $$ off retailing apparel but he did it Oct 31, 2012
Malaysian Gold Plans Flourish as Savers Seek Higher Yield http://t.co/4OTzlTIW When yields are too low, many bad income schemes arise $$ Oct 31, 2012
The EC can claim “success” in CDS regulation http://t.co/kufYPnpz @soberlook tells us how the EU solved sovereign CDS by killing it $$ Oct 29, 2012
WHOA: Japan Has Its Own Fiscal Cliff, And People Are Actually Talking About A Risk Of Imminent Technical Default http://t.co/b3ldTp0f $$ Oct 29, 2012
Europe’s Crisis Spawns Calls for a Breakup?of Spain http://t.co/RvC0ctZB more here: http://t.co/h1faG4Yd Will b tough 2 stay whole $$ Oct 29, 2012

Insurance

Berkshire Hathaway buying Oriental Trading http://t.co/997JvhOS Buffett buys an Omaha company that sells party supplies nationally $$ Nov 03, 2012
MetLife’s Big Annuity Charge Linked to Regulatory Concern http://t.co/mNbA192Z Reserving 4 guarantees on variable products can b weak $$ Nov 03, 2012
Hartford Moves to Offer Annuity Buyouts http://t.co/dGmfth2h also http://t.co/aUpA2l2X Annuity-holders: don’t accept $HIG ‘s low offers Nov 03, 2012
P/C Insurers Can Handle Sandy Losses; Flood Program 2 Bear Brunt http://t.co/4WqN1uq1 Watch $TWGP, maybe $CB, property-centric reinsurers $$ Oct 31, 2012
Insurers Won’t Get Whole Tab http://t.co/O7oFk9Wd Important 2c that much damage is not insured, & flood insurance not bot by many $$ Oct 31, 2012
Berkshire Extends Housing Bet With Brookfield Venture http://t.co/zquFTiB1 Buffett increases residential real estate sales presence $$ Oct 31, 2012

Sandy

Nomads in Queens Endure Life on the Line as They Forage4 Gas http://t.co/hzMnZnNT Many Running on Empty in Newark http://t.co/CF4LAHWu Nov 03, 2012
Many Affected by #Sandy Lacked Flood Coverage http://t.co/0AYx5xb2 Common in low frequency areas to not get the flood cover $$ #rolldice Nov 01, 2012
#Sandy Seen Lifting Insurance Prices Amid ?New Reality? http://t.co/13kHQUs6 Might have a small upward move in rates; shouldn’t b big $$ Nov 01, 2012
Sandy Delivers a Digital Wallop to Eastern US http://t.co/aGbvoUKv Many datacenters have gotten soaked/fried; hope the data was backed up Nov 01, 2012
As far as the US equity indexes are concerned, the two day break for #Sandy had little effect on the stock markets $$ Oct 31, 2012
New York Subway System May Take Weeks to Recover From Storm http://t.co/thkL5qca Will be difficult to get into NYC by many means $$ Oct 30, 2012
US Stock Trading Shut for Second Day, Joining Bonds http://t.co/wZzh2MTg Markets likely to reopen on Wednesday, things still uncertain $$ Oct 30, 2012
Behind Decision to Close Markets http://t.co/nhLOKRQT Contingency plans to operate exchanges remotely will be the rule in the future $$ Oct 30, 2012
Hurricane Sandy: Losses Estimated at $45 Billion http://t.co/dUZJ3cmi Seems high, but possible. More realistic: http://t.co/DgB638Ij $$ Oct 30, 2012
Sandy knocks out power to 82 percent of LIPA customers http://t.co/NkjJEbcU Astounding $$ Oct 30, 2012

Politics

The progressive case against Obama http://t.co/t8G5PsUL I may write “The Libertarian case against Romney,” b/c we really don’t know him $$ Nov 03, 2012
Disasters Create Bigger, Not Better, Government http://t.co/W91nFEqr The challenge is 2 decide in advance what risks r borne by whom $$ Nov 01, 2012

Energy

Mining Canada’s Oil Sands: Suddenly, Not a Sure Thing http://t.co/k77vrfOm High cost 2 produce vs tight oil from fracking in the US $$ Nov 03, 2012
Vladimir Putin Is The New Global Shah Of Oil http://t.co/MWckLbRY Putin gains control over Russian oil & gas; how will he use that? $$ Oct 30, 2012

Bonds

In Fixed Income, a Fight to Survive http://t.co/cOtfWbGB Investment banking in bonds favors a market structure w/6-10 major brokers $$ Nov 03, 2012
Low Rates Lure Yield Seekers Onto Thin Ice http://t.co/tMhYQOMr When amateurs reach 4 yield they usually don’t know the risks they take $$ Nov 01, 2012
Pimco?s Gross Says Quantitative Easing Not Leading to Investment http://t.co/WRlaCAqi Should not b a surprise, only affects HQ rates $$ Nov 01, 2012
Bond Sales Topping $3 Trillion Nears 2009 Record http://t.co/qkcYLj9f Corporate debt deserves its chance 2become a bubble. Will u help? $$ Nov 01, 2012
Who Loses When Fed Keeps Interest Rates Low? http://t.co/Umt8Wx6Q Savers, Banks, Insurers (Life more), Pensions, Endowments, & Trusts $$ Oct 31, 2012
Bernanke?s Cash Fueling Record Corporate Rally http://t.co/gHo8IfwT Corporate credit getting tempted to overissue from low yields $$ Oct 30, 2012
Hedge Funds Drawn to Fannie-Freddie Risk-Sharing Plan http://t.co/mQ5Muyum Creating new private mortgage securities in an unusual way $$ Oct 30, 2012
Bargain-Addicted Investors Ignore Perils of Low Rates http://t.co/datCWeCz Argues investors & borrowers underestimate economic weakness $$ Oct 29, 2012
Treasury Real Yields Turn Positive as Inflation Slows http://t.co/yDEc23uE I prefer the CPI and the GDP IPD 2 the PCE. #alphabetsoup $$ Oct 28, 2012
Cost of Bailing Out Fannie and Freddie Expected to Fall Sharply http://t.co/j4KSPeZj Looks more optimistic, so long as housing prices ^ Oct 28, 2012
Trusts, Bonds Lead Surge in Credit ‘Gambling’ http://t.co/TnTEmVTz Maturity & risk-based pricing only come after mkts have a failure event Oct 27, 2012
New Peril for Parents: Their Kids’ Student Loans http://t.co/tXaLTBNS Safer: Borrow directly & formal lend 2 yr kids $$ #dontcosign Oct 27, 2012
Here’s a Tip: Watch Those Pricey TIPS http://t.co/VRVNtqQC People are locking in increasingly larger losses vs the CPI, be wary $$ Oct 27, 2012
That said, the enhanced indexing is often a better strategy, but not everyone can do it; it would eventually distort the market $$ Oct 27, 2012
Is Your Bond Strategy Wrong? http://t.co/Aqa1zu3k Mkt cap weighting scales &is true idxing; other weighting schemes r enhanced idxing $$ Oct 27, 2012

Market Impact

Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? http://t.co/S8SbDy0r It reduces, but does not destroy; limits to arbitrage $$ Nov 03, 2012
Predicting the Next Shock to the Global Economy http://t.co/mMJS0uBu China, Fiscal Cliff, Oil price surge, European Bank failure, Earnings Nov 03, 2012
Sectors And Style: Which is the better way to view the market? http://t.co/WjpyjxyC Sectors. Been my view 4a while $$ ht: IndexUniverse Nov 01, 2012
Rich Stuck as Salient Curbs Withdrawals for Investors http://t.co/rBEjHpxs The sting of illiquidity at its finest; hedge fund halts w/d $$ Oct 30, 2012
THE REAL BEAUTY OF A BALANCED FUND http://t.co/vSxtlGYf “The beauty of rebalancing is that it forces us to do what we won?t want to do” $$ Oct 30, 2012
David Rosenberg Brought Down The House With This Depressing Presentation At A Conference This Week http://t.co/uFs8fSAB 2 wks dated $$ Oct 29, 2012
?Misunderstanding Financial Crises?, a Q&A with Gary Gorton http://t.co/DPfiegyK I will b reviewing this book soon; disagree on policy $$ Oct 29, 2012
Signal failure:Why illiquidity in one asset can spread quickly to others http://t.co/6o9mSz94 Investors sell risk assets at same time $$ Oct 29, 2012
SEC Weighs Bringing Back Fractions in Stock Prices http://t.co/cxwNcah7 Probably a mistake; there r better ways2 solve trading issues $$ Oct 27, 2012
Your Fund May Be ‘Adopted.’ So What? http://t.co/uS1ReuFJ Doesn’t affect existing holders, usually done2increase marketing 2 new holders Oct 27, 2012

Pensions & Endowments

Also, it is very difficult 4 avg ppl 2 invest a lump sum over a long horizon; that’s even difficult 4 professionals, unless u have lotsa $$ Nov 01, 2012
GM Retirees Take Lump Sum Buyout http://t.co/uyXo5KJU Usually a bad idea to take a lump sum buyout; avg ppl don’t estimate value well $$ $GM Nov 01, 2012
Preliminary Data Indicate Educational Endowments Earned Investment Returns Averaging -0.3% in FY2012 http://t.co/QJaU4mZI Tarnished model $$ Oct 29, 2012

Companies

VMware, the bell tolls for thee, and Microsoft is ringing it http://t.co/ykt7oiEa Never thought $MSFT would ever threaten a company again $$ Nov 03, 2012
Sharp Says It Faces Material Doubt on Survival http://t.co/3fIHwx6b From Sharp minds come… never mind… tech is a cutthroat sector $$ Nov 01, 2012
Honda starts making small jets in US, aims for ‘Civic of the Sky’ http://t.co/BkBhRaqs FD: + $HMC Unique jet may offer many advantages $$ Nov 01, 2012
Abbott Labs $ABT Said to Ready a $10B+ Bond Deal http://t.co/4iEG0eX5 Remember bigger 1 in 2002 4 $GE Capital. I passed & it sank $$ Oct 28, 2012

Other

Are You Better Off Now Than You Were Four Years Ago? http://t.co/bCgRBbUU If u r reading @reformedbroker u r. Happy 4th blogoversary! $$ Nov 01, 2012
Unsaving the U.S. economy http://t.co/vj0ujChh Low savings rate may aid GDP in the present, at the cost of lower GDP in the future $$ Oct 30, 2012
Taming Stomachs With Fodmap Diet Spurs $8 Billion Market http://t.co/kyQlpvAA Eliminate a few sugars from diet & upset stomachs go away $$ Oct 30, 2012
Let?s Put America?s Bankers Out of Business Now http://t.co/ypHmnJiG I.e. not finance US debt via China & Japan, OPEC, etc. $$ #tough2do Oct 29, 2012
Counting das gold at Fort Knox http://t.co/ZEXNCooP This would be interesting if the Germans can audit it & no Americans can $$ Oct 29, 2012
A Dirty Investment http://t.co/vRLzHuhd Watch composition of the financing & get skittish when debt levels get hi4 new transactions $$ Oct 29, 2012
Great Ideas Bosses Never Hear http://t.co/lstKcyJF It’s a cultural thing. It’s easy to create a culture where new ideas r put down $$ Oct 29, 2012
Practice Makes Perfect?And Not Just for Jocks and Musicians http://t.co/mTlvuiBs Many disciplines benefit by making basics instictive $$ Oct 28, 2012
Windows 8 Success Hinges on $10 Component http://t.co/Q48L45Ic Hail the high-tech hinge! Variable friction for enhanced functionality $$ Oct 27, 2012

Comments

If states declare #Sandy not 2b a “hurricane” so hurricane deductibles don’t apply, expect 2c policy forms rewritten 4 future storms $$ Nov 01, 2012
It would be stupid2base your vote off the Friday jobs report. A related variable is better http://t.co/aqDsu4jY Labor Force Participation $$ Nov 01, 2012
“Sandy has not affected your ability to write trenchant posts, Josh. Well done.” David_Merkel http://t.co/KAhHWdbT http://t.co/U0KKS3Jm $$ Oct 31, 2012
It’s obvious that NYC and a number of coastal areas took some pretty bad whacks. Anyplace further inland get hit that badly? $$ #Sandy Oct 30, 2012
Sandy having her last hurrah in Baltimore. We are on the downhill slope from here. 20% of people lost power, much less than feared. $$ Oct 30, 2012
Trench on the uphill side of the yard is diverting water downhill and away from the house. Moderate winds & rain at present:Baltimore #Sandy Oct 29, 2012
If #Sandy has not turned toward the US Coast by 8AM ET, it will head out to sea. If so, will NOAA issue an apology? $$ Oct 29, 2012
Just tossing this out, but what if #Sandy doesn’t make landfall on the US Coast? Storm tracking east of predictions. $$ Oct 29, 2012
Men live in a dream world about women. Women live in a dream world about men. Sadly, they aren’t the same dream worlds. $$ Oct 27, 2012
And thus, good marriages require communication and compromise Oct 27, 2012

Retweets

Yeh, or Icahn’s son RT @valuewalk: or his son Nov 01, 2012
Carl only plays 4 Carl RT @srussolillo: Whitney Tilson Has ‘Mixed Feelings’ About Carl Icahn’s Netflix Stake http://t.co/r3TKOXK5 $NFLX Nov 01, 2012
RT @marketfolly: Tons of hedgies lately saying to avoid long-term treasuries. Makes sense, but contrarian move is obviously for them to … Oct 31, 2012
Y I never say IMHO RT @felixsalmon: RT @racheldodes: Observation: those who describe themselves as “humble” r usually the opposite of humble Oct 31, 2012
RT @cabaum1: My Bastiatian response to destruction-is-good crew: Why wait for natural diasters when we could nuke and rebuild cities all … Oct 30, 2012
+1 RT @Convertbond: I think we’ll see an a leak over to corporate CDS in #Europe as the sovereign short selling bad goes into effect #France Oct 30, 2012
RT @grossdm: Irony, and this is the last time I’ll use this pun. Biggest liquidity market to hit NY in decades causing historic illiquid … Oct 29, 2012
High required returns & unrealistic views of “alternatives” RT @The_Analyst: you mean illogical/delusional return assumptions, no? $$ Oct 29, 2012
Time to celebrate! RT @PragCapitalist: Minor miracle. Server transfer completed without destroying the website. Oct 28, 2012
I am with you there, I tell young ppl that RT @rossbrannon: Or don’t let kids get student loans at all. It’s the worst debt there is. $$ Oct 28, 2012

Replies

@jucojames Typically, I write about Buffett in the late Winter or early Spring, b/c I get the most data then. Quarterly releases r light $$ Nov 03, 2012
@jucojames Excellent 2 hear from you my friend. I hope your business continues 2 prosper. When I opened my doors 4 biz, I underperformed 🙁 Nov 03, 2012
@researchpuzzler The link to my article has extraneous stuff at the end does not work Nov 01, 2012
@BradErvin1 Not sure where you are going — this has cut across everyone, though men, young, old, & minorities more Nov 01, 2012
@michaellipson1 This is true, & it is one place where the average individual has an advantage over the actuarial tables; U know yr health $$ Nov 01, 2012
@crampell Politicians don’t like to admit that there r problems that r so big & complex that they can’t do anything about them $$ Nov 01, 2012
@TheStalwart It’s slower, I think. Many key internet nodes got knocked out by #Sandy. See: http://t.co/aGbvoUKv Nov 01, 2012
@merrillmatter @munilass What a cute kid. I don’t have any that small anymore. Kid #8 just turned 10, and she’s still cute, but they grow up Nov 01, 2012
@EddyElfenbein How do you dig these little gems up, Eddy? Oct 31, 2012
@carney Disasters don’t often happen on a correlated basis; people have cognitive bias 2 think they do; also shutting barn door after cow $$ Oct 31, 2012
@carney As a buyside insurance analyst back in 2006, everyone was saying what a bad disaster year it would be. I argued against it. $$ Oct 31, 2012
@PlanMaestro Challenge to govts is 2 set rates that reflect risk fairly, avoid permanent subsidy, & discourage efforts at non-compliance $$ Oct 31, 2012
@PlanMaestro They typically exist 4 low-frequency high-severity events & areas where insureds can’t or don’t take steps 2 avoid losses $$ Oct 31, 2012
@Alea_ Thanks, I get it, I think. Assets r more unbounded than processes like underwriting damages. Fair? Oct 31, 2012
@Alea_ But isn’t EVT better than alternatives when dealing w/questions like how do we size reserves 4 events larger than we have seen b4? $$ Oct 31, 2012
@finemrespice @carney “Most commercial policies provide flood coverage, though with some limits” http://t.co/UJPiQ8yV but homes, not $$ Oct 31, 2012
@joshgiersch The situation in China might be competitive, given the financial repression going on there. Oct 31, 2012
@joshgiersch You can say that again. When governments engage in financial repression, they tempt ppl to cut corners on safety 4 income $$ Oct 31, 2012
@JamesMarsh79 It’s not just ability, but willingness, and willingness is affected by politics as well as economics Oct 29, 2012
@real_taxloss Well done. That was well worth a read. Oct 29, 2012
@PlanMaestro I appreciate guys like you that I agree with half the time, and disagree with half the time. Makes me think. $$ Oct 28, 2012
@ColoradoCapital Nominally TIPS investor gets CPI – x if held to maturity. The nominal Tsy holder gets his yield [y]. Real: -x vs y-CPI $$ Oct 27, 2012
@munilass Is there a brief way to explain what incremental risks exist between a Puerto Rico GO & a generic state GO? Similar laws or not? Oct 27, 2012

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