Politics

 

• California Democrats seize super majorities in both houses of Legislature http://t.co/Wp2cVYTF CA businesses plan exit strategies $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Harsher energy regulations coming in Obama’s second term http://t.co/JHDKAhok Fracking, chemical emissions, & more $$ -losing green energy Nov 08, 2012
• US crop insurance a post-election target, farm bill elusive http://t.co/9OdbRVjy W/Ag doing so well over last 5 yrs, this should b ez, not Nov 08, 2012
• Ethanol Going Ugly Turns Bush Plan Into Obama Test http://t.co/Pe6ixxc1 Should b a no-brainer, but Congress ag state politics r ugly $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Could This Be End of Evil Filibuster? http://t.co/t72aR3OR Limit filibusters to actual votes & require physical presence on the floor $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Obama Win Means Health Overhaul to Move Ahead in States http://t.co/ybXggsLt Destroy health care 2 replace it w/single-payer system $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Yep, There Have Been Problems With Email Voting in New Jersey http://t.co/lZjzVNrG In general, probability of fraud in voting is rising $$ Nov 07, 2012
• Defense Fund Rockets to Four-Year High: Romney Rally? http://t.co/3fzUDRTH Discounting Obama’s change of heart after election $$ 😉 Nov 06, 2012
• Romney Threatens Pimco?s Gross With Bernanke-Dumping Plan http://t.co/xO6Tm0aF 2 many links in the chain of reasoning; low prob correct $$ Nov 06, 2012
• Southfield Twp. voter appears to die, then asks ‘Did I vote?’ http://t.co/2ZwRgotp I found his words to his wife 2b touching in many ways $$ Nov 06, 2012
• Tuesday Is Election Night, Be Careful What You Tweet http://t.co/UdPPMYiJ Measure twice, cut once, tweeps. & bring a dose of skepticism $$ Nov 05, 2012
• Three Men Make a Tiger http://t.co/eX1PziJK John Mauldin predicts Romney as victor; piece is mostly about eliminating confirmation bias $$ Nov 05, 2012

 

China

 

• China: Worse Than You Ever Imagined http://t.co/Kp69IC1n 40MM+ people were killed during the “Great Leap Forward.” Mao deserves derision $$ Nov 08, 2012
• China’s leadership challenge in new era: douse “inequality volcano” http://t.co/pJiAksUl Widespread poverty in China scares Communist Party Nov 08, 2012
• A Cheerleader for Mao’s Cultural Revolution http://t.co/d3RhdV95 Lied about Cultural Revolution & The Great Leap Forward. Millions died. Nov 08, 2012
• The Chinese Credit Bubble – Full Frontal http://t.co/MDZn1jCs As I have argued for some time, total debt in China is quite high $$ #danger Nov 07, 2012

 

Companies

 

• Peltz Takes Stake in Danone http://t.co/P1AdRe9G Danone $DANOY is a French firm, will be difficult to encourage change $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Prudential Records $618 Million Loss on Derivatives http://t.co/6ZQK1Uk5 I worry about life industry; the acctg 4 secondary gtees: yuck $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Nucor Galvanizes Gas Hopes http://t.co/NmfZ9fmJ $NUE provides capital 4 development of gas resources of $ECA -Gets 50% stake in wells $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Office Depot-OfficeMax Deal Seen Rescuing Value http://t.co/bNsFKuJU The failure of office retailers as the non-profit $AMZN undercuts $$ Nov 07, 2012
• SapuraKencana Agrees 2 Buy Seadrill Tender Rigs http://t.co/XXrAsjFj Interesting deal, clever investor; expands Malaysia exposure $SDRL $$ Nov 05, 2012
• Sharp blunted, and it?s not alone http://t.co/5jTHzKuN Argues that Japanese electronics mfg & exports r getting killed by strong yen $$ Nov 04, 2012

 

Federal Reserve

 

• Inflation, QE and forcing the banks to lend http://t.co/XuPgRPJm I’ve subscribed 2 The Economist for 25 years; they r getting dumber $$ Nov 04, 2012
• Casting Dual Roles, at Treasury & the Fed http://t.co/kIwpAzZ3 Bernanke’s Last Supper & The Return Of Larry Summershttp://bit.ly/Sp9PBZ $$ Nov 04, 2012
• Off of the last tweet, it would be nice 2c Bernanke retire; he really may b tired of the abuse. His prob was he thought he knew what 2 do $$ Nov 04, 2012
• & as a result, could not c that Neoclassical macro does not work with an overindebted economy. We need fewer economists at the Fed & Tsy $$ Nov 04, 2012
• Wrong: Seth Klarman Goes Nuts On The Fed In His Latest Investor Letter http://t.co/G6gAkMfU Y I think value investors should run the Fed $$ Nov 04, 2012
• Seth Klarman, like most value investors, is farsighted & not just thinking about how to goose GDP for the next year. Klarman 4 Fed chair $$ Nov 04, 2012

 

Eurozone

 

• Convergence between the core and the periphery economies in the Eurozone http://t.co/2oD2exeV Drowning PIIGS pull Germany & France under $$ Nov 08, 2012
• ECB & Fed: Worlds Apart http://t.co/zZuaFiXU Axel Merk praises the ECB & disses the Fed. Argues that ECB has not gone fiscal as the Fed has Nov 08, 2012
• Unsteady Greek Coalition Faces More Strikes http://t.co/dxQJYzmw Suspect they make it through; Greeks don’t want 2 leave Eurozone yet $$ Nov 05, 2012
• The peripheral threat to France http://t.co/0atOAKZq Many of the PIIGS r getting more competitive relative 2 France. No E-zone w/o France Nov 04, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

• Old People Versus Babies, In One Graph http://t.co/Erk2Mu8z Global demographic crisis in one very easy to manipulate graphic $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Iceland Sees Mortgage Bubble Threat From Foreign Cash http://t.co/djtYZDxw The problems of capital controls start to bite $$ #nofreelunch Nov 06, 2012
• Turning Trash Into Tidy Profit http://t.co/FvM32C3a Optimistic story on turning trash into durable building materials in Senegal $$ Nov 05, 2012

 

Sandy and Disaster

 

• Frederick County teen wins regional science competition http://t.co/F72thGx3 The software can read a picture & tell where it is. $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Sandy’s Aftermath: Samuel Pritt Develops Geolocation Software http://t.co/InnwZaGe Young friend won Siemens US Science Competition $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Insurance divides haves from have-nots after Sandy http://t.co/NngZdchm Insurance is for catastrophes; scrimp on frequency, not severity $$ Nov 04, 2012
• Reserved Buoyancy, Down-Flooding, and Living Off the Grid http://t.co/TXxn9f6e The value of slack in physical systems, especially boats $$ Nov 03, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

• FIRE IN THE DISCO! http://t.co/YComOnGA @reformedbroker warns us that a recession is coming, & talks about a decline in corporate profits $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Even 6.75% is too high. Looking at the Q-ratio, CAPE10, & long high quality bond yields would make 4% more realistic http://t.co/vjP0X7y1 $$ Nov 06, 2012
• Lightening the Pension Load http://t.co/bi2j6cdJ Never thought I’d c terminal funding return; can b bad 4 annuitants if insurer fails $$ Nov 06, 2012
• Fitting Factors Into the Formula http://t.co/35speWwR Bob Arnott& Cliff Asness discuss quantitative investing; long article worth reading $$ Nov 06, 2012
• TAGP expiration will put downward pressure on short-term yields http://t.co/YgwmR2bu Once guarantee goes, much S-T $$ will look 4a home $$ Nov 06, 2012
• Cash as Trash, Cash as King, and Cash as a Weapon http://t.co/fWS1TOTl In different environments & hands, cash has different properties $$ Nov 06, 2012
• Wrong: Is Your Manager Skillful?or Just Lucky? http://t.co/vJu2tTrd Bill Miller neglected “margin of safety” & reaped bad results $$ Nov 05, 2012
• http://t.co/VRj1k4Vg They didn’t read paper closely. Performance of anomalies diminished, not destroyed, by publishing academic research $$ Nov 05, 2012
• For John Maynard Keynes, Economic Theory Was a Sideline http://t.co/IVdB6Gyc He was a better investor than he was an economist $$ Nov 05, 2012
• It?s the Earnings, Stupid: ?Atrocious? Q3 Turns Josh Brown Cautious http://t.co/a2ChJKTL Time 2b cautious says @reformedbroker. Calendar? Nov 05, 2012
• “All I know: The next bankruptcy cycle, whether in 2 or 3 or 4 years, is going to be one for the ages. Count on it.” http://t.co/xtHy7lqj $$ Nov 03, 2012

 

Policy

 

• A New Idea of How to Fix the Ratings Agencies http://t.co/fTEECPUP by @carney | My response: http://t.co/3dWFo2Pv $$ Nov 06, 2012
• Investors won?t read the fine print http://t.co/t2W8Nrk9 Even many institutional investors become overworked, lazy, etc. & don’t read $$ Nov 06, 2012
• Hero of the day, CPDO edition http://t.co/wIxyPo2T I remember 2006 when @alea_ @interfluidity & I (@ Realmoney) were criticizing CPDOs $$ Nov 05, 2012
• Health-Care Law Spurs Shift to Part-Time Workers http://t.co/0ui2LGvm Law of unintended consequences: How 29-hr workweek got created $$ Nov 05, 2012
• 10 things walk-in clinics won?t tell you http://t.co/qKPj3D3R Major factor is the loss of continuity u have w/doctor who knows u $$ Nov 05, 2012
• After Bailout, Giants Allowed to Dominate the Mortgage Business http://t.co/K9HZZWDu “Is this what we saved [the financial system] for?” $$ Nov 04, 2012

 

Retweets

• Can say that again RT @bespokeinvest: Wow, big selloff in the last couple minutes of trading. Dow down 430 points since Tuesday’s close. $$ Nov 08, 2012
• Some gift RT @pdacosta: Gift that keeps on taking: France, Belgium agree to pump 5.5B euros into bailed-out Dexia http://t.co/qgq8PI6R Nov 08, 2012
• RT @ReformedBroker: This Greek austerity bill is the equivalent of slapping a Kick Me sign on the Troika’s back. Gives us one day’s peac … Nov 07, 2012
• Rupert goes back to sleep $$ RT @felixsalmon: RT @dansabbagh: Pearson says FT is not for sale. “This particular Bloomberg story is wrong. ” Nov 06, 2012
• RT @SimoneFoxman: you’ve got to be kidding me. — Southfield Twp. voter appears to die, then asks ?Did I vote?? http://t.co/2ZwRgotp Nov 06, 2012
• First of many 2 come RT @FrancesDenmark: Indiana is the first state to drop its pension return expectations below 7.0% http://t.co/ir8anqN4 Nov 06, 2012
• Murdoch would b interested $$ RT @ReformedBroker: The Financial Slides RT @TheStalwart: Who will buy the FT? Maybe BI in a reverse merger? Nov 06, 2012
• Bite your tongue 🙂 Janet Yellen has exceeded the Peter Principle $$ RT @fundmyfund: precious metals say = janet yellen here we come Nov 06, 2012
• Easy 2 talk tough, hard 2 not repay $$ RT @munilass: So much for cities standing up to Calpers http://t.co/xWIciI4C Nov 06, 2012
• marriage changes u $$ RT @moorehn Surprising: single & married women are further apart politically than men & women r http://t.co/b4adY1pc Nov 06, 2012
• Probably priced in $$ RT @kyles09: isn’t the exp of TAG a negative for the big bank stocks or do you think it is already priced in? Nov 06, 2012
• I was just looking forward to the end of the political season, sigh RT @jfahmy: Hillary Clinton listed as current 2016 favorite (6:1 odds). Nov 05, 2012
• Dog bites man RT @TheStalwart: National Review endorses Mitt Romney http://t.co/ZBAptg8Q Nov 05, 2012
• Wow $$ RT @businessinsider: New York Magazine’s Breathtaking Cover Shows Manhattan From Up In The Sky by @KimBhasin http://t.co/FaTgCqA1 Nov 03, 2012

 

Replies

• @valuewalk Thanks. $DANOY might do what they can to improve margins, but might play badly in France. Has mgmt been s/h-friendly in past? $$ Nov 08, 2012
• @Frank_McG Very cool. We homeschool — only 4 left, 1 senior, 2 freshmen & a 5th grader. My wife is having a blast. $$ Nov 08, 2012
• @TheOneDave You’re welcome — you do some great stuff Nov 07, 2012
• @TheOneDave Hey, Dave, don’t see where we can get the Chart… Nov 07, 2012
• @amacker Floating NAV, hehe Nov 07, 2012
• @TheStalwart My friend and former boss Eric Hovde would have beaten Baldwin, and handily… Nov 07, 2012
• @kyles09 My actuarial conservatism, and knowing that God can do whatever he wants with me Nov 07, 2012
• @carney I hear you: I’m going to write a piece where I take my “eliminate the rating agencies model” and clarify it http://t.co/x4WsWaj3 $$ Nov 06, 2012
• @PragCapitalist Thanks, Cullen. I applied that idea to corporate board elections when writing 4 Realmoney, Shame it didn’t get traction $$ Nov 06, 2012
• @michaelroston Yes, but there is a lot of $$ on both sides, and the phones ring. WV & PA gambling firms & Christians vs MD gambling firms Nov 06, 2012
• @michaelroston However, if you live in MD all u hear about is 7, the ballot measure expanding gambling. Other measures: <crickets> $$ Nov 06, 2012
• @BradErvin1 That’s what I am saying — they r taking consensus risks $$ Nov 05, 2012
• @BradErvin1 But my point about the balanced funds is this: in the selection he could invest in, they r all taking the same broad risks Nov 05, 2012
• @BradErvin1 57, Married, one kid at home, significant assets good job, wife w/good health, 52, he not so healthy, has saved aggressively Nov 05, 2012
• @FriedrichHayek I knew that Keynes got bailed out once (or was it twice?), but he learned from his losses, & was far better at the end $$ Nov 05, 2012
• @MarketIntegrity @CFAInstitute @CFAcareers @CFAevents You might want to get different logos; it makes you look like u r RT-ing yourself $$ Nov 05, 2012
• @japhychron Bingo. You got it. Nov 04, 2012
• @TeamHeadwaters Forgot about that.. those are some of the best limestone deposits in the world, in an area ideal 4 potato farming, right? Nov 04, 2012
• @nelson3748 That seems correct, but doesn’t S. Korea have the same issues w/the Chaebol, & they r functioning ok, seemingly… Nov 04, 2012
• @munilass Thanks. I put it on my wish list. We discussed mishedging in the finance markets, Soros, &c. Nice of him 2 spend time w/little me. Nov 03, 2012
• @munilass What’s the title of the book? I spent about ten minutes talking with him in early 2000 at a Complexity Theory conf @ Columbia U Nov 03, 2012

 

Comments

• I suspect that Obama ends up winning the popular vote as well, and maybe surpasses 50%, fwiw, which isn’t much… $$ Nov 07, 2012
• Best thing about elections: they’re over. Second best: gridlock continues. Worst: Four more years of Bush-clone Obama. $$ Nov 07, 2012
• “Stocks aren’t GDP futures, so its not a lock that they immediately fall during the recession?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/CdH1CNuP Nov 08, 2012
• Last pres election, took oldest child 2 vote. This time, took child #5 2 vote. If I live, next time will be kids 6 & 7. Time after, kid 8 $$ Nov 06, 2012
• “Josh, the article is worth a read, but the Chronicle of Higher Education misreported on it. The?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/BFGqCw04 $$ Nov 06, 2012
• “People easily forget that the stocks of commodity producers are very different than buying the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/dDlMNxIY $$ Nov 05, 2012
• Helping a client w/his 401(k). Common balanced fund risk factors chosen: Low Duration, Medium credit quality, Large Cap Blend Equities $$ Nov 05, 2012
• The benchmark changes added jobs that were created at an unknown earlier point in time. If they were… http://t.co/TmRLG1vg Nov 03, 2012