Credit Markets

 

• Credit Suisse Raises $802M CLO; Prudential Closes Fund http://t.co/RbXDgtPU Watch arb from creation of CDOs & CLOs: clue 2 bond rally end Dec 01, 2012
• Caisse Thinks Bond Party Is Over? http://t.co/j6lWdJjA Shifting $$ from bonds 2 infrastructure; usually good though liquidity is underpriced Dec 01, 2012
• Bond Yields May Fall Short of Corporate Pension Fund Needshttp://on.barrons.com/VkWekV Bonds in DB plans r4 risk reduction not just yield $$ Dec 01, 2012
• My point is that it is difficult to tell whether we will be getting inflation or deflation. My bond portfolios are barbelled: long &short $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Investors Unprepared for Bond Danger, BlackRock?s Rosenberg Says http://t.co/56kv1CrS B wary of owning 2 much or 2 little long bonds $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Safe or junk, bonds in bubble trouble http://t.co/Nd5iEYPy Fuss told the summit in New York there was evidence of “a spread bubble” $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Overnight Rates Surge in Fed?s Operation Twist http://t.co/xwvKCPGb Large supply of short Treasuries raises Repo rates over LIBOR $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Muni Markets and Pensions

 

• Bankruptcy threat back on the table in Pennsylvania city as filing ban ends http://t.co/NgMGQs2Z Will b tough to stiff muni bondholders $$ Dec 01, 2012
• Calpers Seeks to Sue San Bernardino Over Pension Payments http://t.co/xv0OqQV9 Will have2show a place in CA law/constitution reqrng pmt $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Fierce Debt Puts Pensions at Risk in Puerto Rico http://t.co/w2oGk8YW Future curse: May u starve like a Puerto Rican pensioner! Uh, yeh $$ Nov 27, 2012
• Proponents of pension reform face steep hurdles http://t.co/n2AYvghT Choose: raise taxes, reduce services, attempt constitutional change $$ Nov 26, 2012
• San Bernardino?s ?Toxic Politics? Snarl Calpers Debt http://t.co/N4YWPCTD Be careful what you put into your city’s Charter. $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

• The Great 2012 Cashout http://t.co/i4lZvD0c Special dividends r coming fast & furious; last call 4 low tax rates; next stop: Caymans $$ Dec 01, 2012
• Wells Fargo CEO: ‘Bad players are gone’ from finance http://t.co/AwSGY8gz FD: + $WFC | Sadly, false. There may be fewer, but not all gone $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Nontraded BDC sales on a tear despite closing of first fund http://t.co/ML7oVkIu Poison, beware. BDCs are bad enough w/o the illiquidity $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Beware the Smart Money: Hedge Funds Issue Sell Signal http://t.co/HXBKD5ZO When fast money is “all in” it just takes a jolt2make mkt fall $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Home Equity Loans Make Comeback Fueling US Spending http://t.co/3WULRzOO We never learn, we never learn, we never learn, we never learn $$ Nov 27, 2012
• Private-Equity Managers Make Moves as Tax Increases Near http://t.co/eKKsH5w6 refinancing investments, accelerating gains, etc. $$ Nov 26, 2012
• The Faustian Bargain between States and Banks http://t.co/gGUHGWIa I lend 2u, u lend 2me. I lend 2u, u lend 2me. What could go wrong? $$ Nov 26, 2012
• The Manufacturing Boom You Won’t Notice http://t.co/R62nFiae Productivity continues 2 improve -> more mfg in US, but not more mfg jobs $$ Nov 26, 2012
• Overlooking Overvaluation http://t.co/nWfA1KMe Hussman interacts w/long-term valuation measures. He finds the market overvalued $$ #whatelse Nov 26, 2012
• Everything You Know About Investing is Wrong http://t.co/v8wAYPg6 Single-vble measures of valuation fail in short-run, some in long-run $$ Nov 26, 2012
• The prior BB article is a little deceptive, because regulated entities use them under regulation. Many r quite safe, like auto ABS, etc. $$ Nov 24, 2012
• Shadow Banking Grows to $67 Trillion Industry, Regulators Say http://t.co/houN2uhM Many are SPV securities held by banks & ins cos $$ Nov 24, 2012

 

Companies

 

• How a desperate HP suspended disbelief for Autonomy deal http://t.co/qv1vIWcQ If $HPQ had been focused on organic growth, wouldnta happened Nov 30, 2012
• Berkshire Hathaway, CaixaBank Agree to Reinsurance Deal http://t.co/RDQqXhMl Berky hasn’t done well w/Life Re — I would be cautious $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Google Has Officially Eaten the Newspaper Industry http://t.co/TGqEWK7T $GOOG now has more advertising revenue than all print media $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Investors Demand CEO Face Time http://t.co/4CPugaAV CEO griping about time spent on investors is wrong; a good CEO is Mr. Outside $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Global Steel Industry Faces Capacity Glut http://t.co/DhU7BaWa We need to see 20% of the steel industry fail b4 buying steel stocks $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Lehman Sells Archstone in Deal Worth $6.5B http://t.co/f2V5K7tk Losses taken; Lehman more liquid; Sam Zell lives 2 gravedance $$ $EQR $AVB Nov 27, 2012
• $AMZN ‘s bond offering will b a bit of a “museum piece.” I.e. unusual issuer unlikely to issue more; should get tight deal spreads $$ yld<2% Nov 26, 2012
• $ICOA Says $GOOG Didn’t Acquire the Company http://t.co/y3XXagL7 Whoever put out the press release will be an easy target 4 the SEC $$ Nov 26, 2012
• France to ArcelorMittal: if you don?t like losing money, get out of France http://t.co/gYQ31NOk Invisible foot punishes France 4 bad policy Nov 26, 2012
• Flowers Foods Sizes Up Hostess http://t.co/4DYwu6p6 Might buy brands, marketing arrangements, factories., etc. Won’t hire unions $$ $FLO Nov 26, 2012

 

Central Banking

 

• Japan?s Ill-Fated Experiment With Money Doctoring http://t.co/OgCSJ4KB Interesting tale of Asia conquest; what does it imply 4 the US? $$ Nov 30, 2012
• The death of volatility? http://t.co/04RNO7z1 “Central bank puts have done a great job of removing tail risks.” for now h/t: @izakaminska Nov 29, 2012
• When the Credit Transmission Mechanism Breaks? http://t.co/HvCddUDh While we r delevering monetary policy won’t work well. h/t: @pragcap $$ Nov 28, 2012
• The Indiana Jones economy http://t.co/GqjOk5Ql @izakaminska explains how economic transmission mechanisms r short-circuited by hoarding $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Brazil real jumps as central bank eclipses Mantega http://t.co/xUpU6tE2 Loose developed mkt $$ polcy forces choice: exports or inflation? $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Politics & Policy

 

• Mortgage interest rate tax deduction scores political points ? but little else http://t.co/xiaLfUkT Limit to $20K of interest $$ @hnmoore Nov 30, 2012
• IMNSHO, the PPACA was designed to destroy the parts of the US health care system that worked well, in order 2 move 2a single-payer system $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Unaffordable Cost Seen for Some Under Affordable Care Act http://t.co/iEPsMhdh When this law goes live in 2014, people will hate it $$ Nov 30, 2012
• In D.C., Social-Media Surveillance Pays Off http://t.co/XkLcZ3nm What they glean from social media aids service to constituents $$ Nov 29, 2012
• 10 Things the SEC Won’t Tell You http://t.co/QOfbkvhC 11) U r your own best defense; we can’t help u much if u r stupid, b skeptical $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Going to college is not of itself a good thing economically. You have to choose something that will pay off if you dare borrow money $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Federal Student Lending Swells http://t.co/Wvi2d6vT We need to eliminate student loans. They do more harm than good. $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Time running out on debt ceiling http://t.co/iZ6BLqdP Follows months behind the “fiscal cliff.” Will probably cause as much angst. $$ Nov 27, 2012
• “Y is the burden of proof on those who want 2 return 2 the proven statutory & regulatory approaches of the past?” http://t.co/GJuNCS1X $$ Nov 26, 2012
• Disabled parents face bias, loss of kids: report http://t.co/SvW3g3Xn Found this 2b disturbing; govt should avoid meddling w/families $$ Nov 26, 2012
• A Minimum Tax for the Wealthy http://t.co/THiT0YGK Let Warren pay tax on his deferred gains in $BRK.A shares, & pay the large DTL also $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

• China?s over-investment problem http://t.co/WJVLvnMD IMF working paper says what China skeptics have said for years: 2 much investment $$ Nov 30, 2012
• China Mafia-Style Hack Attack Drives California Firm to Brink http://t.co/cmnb4qco Chinese hackers steal software & hack software firm $$ Nov 28, 2012
• A UK Exit From EU Offers No Promise of Better Fortunes http://t.co/TBmi6as7 EU is a failed experiment; Y should the UK continue there? $$ Nov 28, 2012
• French jobless total hits 14-yr high http://t.co/NYdjc6Rs Francois Hollande getting costly economics lessons, paid4 by the French people $$ Nov 27, 2012
• China Wage Gains Hurt by Weaker Profit Damp Consumption http://t.co/tESRToBZ Malinvestment leads2 lower profits, then wages can’t grow $$ Nov 27, 2012
• China?s nemesis: bribes, banquets and backslapping http://t.co/D7V7yF06 Difficult 2 develop highly when rule of law is not followed $$ Nov 26, 2012

?? Sovereign CDS trading plummets http://t.co/jKBj47bv Will eventually lead discretionary holders to lighten sovereign positions $$ Nov 26, 2012

• Egyptian Army allowed Morsi in2 power 2 avoid riots & allow him 2 mess up, so that Egyptians would support military rule again. US wins 2 $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Wrong

 

• Wrong: Misconceptions 101: Why College Costs Aren?t Soaring http://t.co/nZWYKQSQ Doesn’t square w/the rise in delinquent student loans $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Wrong: Obama To Meet Romney Tomorrow Amid Fiscal Cliff Talks http://t.co/2VfO7Fxz Doesn’t Obama realize Romney has no power in the GOP? $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Wrong: Fed’s Easing Yields Hidden Benefit http://t.co/6bJejPB1 1994 is not 2013. The banks/financials/households were in good shape $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Taleb Mishandles Fragility http://t.co/qIGbLQHl Taleb needs new ideas, but does not perceive that. He is mired in the past. $$ Nov 28, 2012
• Russell Napier’s “Most Important Chart In The World” http://t.co/XYKdagZm While we’re at it let’s reprise the Nikkei vs Nasdaq charts $$ Nov 28, 2012

 

Other

 

• THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL [SLIDE DECK] http://t.co/RabKP5EC Good but long piece from BI on the future of digital media $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Alleged Insider Group Includes Website Editor http://t.co/Llnmz2aE In general insider info is a curse to the upright; ties your hands $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Texas Feral Hog Wrecks Mark Losing Battle With Animals http://t.co/TMPpFNh6 This is Texas, no one said anything about losing. $$ Nov 29, 2012
• He Carries On, She Likes to Check http://t.co/4D1Fd5Td Men and women are different when they fly. This explains it. $$ Nov 29, 2012
• . @izakaminska is a favorite writer of mine. She helps me with the nuances of tightly nested markets, finding the variable that is valuable Nov 29, 2012
• American Housing Casino Revives After Big Drop: Mortgages http://t.co/lZmmHo9s Setting up conditions for the naive 2 lose again $$ Nov 28, 2012
• FHA?s Biggest Loser: No-Money-Down Mortgages http://t.co/bJgwTdtV Surprise! Lend2 someone w/nothing 2 lose & they default a lot more $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Teaching Math

 

• Helping Parents Score on the Homework Front http://t.co/7FPGjA0n 6-yr olds should not be doing fractions. Parents aren’t the problem $$ Nov 28, 2012
• The push to think abstractly about math does not work w/kids. You can start with girls around 13, boys around 14; misguided idealism $$ Nov 26, 2012
• Children learn math best through drill, giving way to problem-solving, giving way to algebra (abstraction), further abstraction Calculus Nov 26, 2012
• A New Kind of Problem: The Common Core Math Standards http://t.co/VGxxQGqr This is as bad as the “New Math” of the 1960s; utterly idiotic $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

 

Retweets

 

• RT @prchovanec: Market should be rooting for China to buckle down to real econ adjustment, not hit yesterday’s growth targets with yeste … Dec 01, 2012
• Would put the fraction at 80%, but I agree $$ RT @GMRobertson: if they are risk free they are solely for risk reduction, IG is about 2/3 so Dec 01, 2012
• Wow! RT @prchovanec: Chinese company debt climbed to 122% of GDP in 2012 from 108% last year, highest level in 15 years http://t.co/ujKmHpTx Dec 01, 2012
• Probably $$ RT @merrillmatter: @hnmoore I think eliminating (slowly) the 2nd home tax deduction is more palatable and possible. Nov 30, 2012
• Blameworthy RT @grossdm: anybody ask boehner about the time he voted for massive new medicare entitlement without a funding mechanism yet? Nov 30, 2012
• +1 RT @jonsticha: as is mine. Large bets on rates either way are a bad bet IMO Nov 30, 2012
• RT @MuniTrader: @AlephBlog completely agree. credit risk front end, high coupon quality on the back end. pretty obvious but best way to … Nov 30, 2012
• RT @PlanMaestro: If you don?t know enough to know about the business instantly, you won?t know enough in a month or in two? ? Buffett H/ … Nov 29, 2012
• Needs2meet an actuary RT @TheStalwart: James Galbraith is only economist who talks about lowering the retirement age http://t.co/3srMzYX3 Nov 29, 2012
• Recognizing reality, & verbally shading down fwd GDP $$ RT @carney: What does the beige book change from “moderate” to “modest” growth mean? Nov 28, 2012
• Thanks, still think Eurozone should dissolve, replace w/mere free trade zone $$ RT @euromoney: Another take (quick): http://t.co/WxSquHKf Nov 28, 2012
• RT @John_Hempton: Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a humourless git… and his publishers censor the internet. Do not buy his book… http://t.c … Nov 28, 2012
• RT @munilass: Over 300 drone strikes and 2,500 people killed without a policy in place for when such attacks should be authorized http:/ … Nov 27, 2012
• To the best of my knowledge, never RT @merrillmatter: do humans ever (in toto, as a society) voluntarily deleverage? Nov 27, 2012
• Sad but true RT @AppFlyer: we never learn. Nov 27, 2012
• That’s a big gap w/Moody’s @ Baa1 – S&P looks at balance sheet, Moody’s at Income Stmt? $$ http://t.co/C4wCNzaM RT @jonsticha: AA- @ S&P Nov 26, 2012
• Rated Baa1 $$ RT @SimoneFoxman: RT @chrisadamsmkts: Amazon is today set to issue its first bond in more than a decade http://t.co/k03iJNi4 Nov 26, 2012
• That’s why we homeschool RT @Nonrelatedsense: @AlephBlog pull kids from public schools if you can afford it. Nov 26, 2012
• Bigtime $$ RT @Pawelmorski: Though anyone who thinks Canada is bubble-free might care to follow @garthturner and read his blog. Nov 26, 2012
• Can we get the PBOC to take Yellen? $$ RT @TheStalwart: I’m definitely on board with this Central Bank poaching/global market place thing… Nov 26, 2012
• Wow. Whoever published the original release will be an easy target $$ RT @mickwe: @AlephBlog so did all these guys http://t.co/sdUtAnlN Nov 26, 2012
• AP goofs RT @mickwe: oh… RT @allthingsd: Google Sources: Acquisition of ICOA Wireless Are ‘Not True’ -by @ahess247 http://t.co/aGVCteBf Nov 26, 2012
• RT @mickwe: That wifi co Google just bought for $400m? Loses $ and ‘Cash and cash equivalents were $10 at June 30, 2012’ http://t.co/PXB … Nov 26, 2012
• Warranties r usually ripoffs RT @danielckoontz: Anybody who’s ever bot an extended warranty should read this post twice http://t.co/Ryl1AkKn Nov 25, 2012
• A good guy; I appreciate him $$ RT @PlanMaestro: Retail Industry’s Ninja Mind Tricks http://t.co/DxJfueu4 #biases Nov 25, 2012

 

Replies

 

• @LSilverspar as @EpicureanDeal says: “Names will be changed to protect the innocent, if we find any.” Few clean hands among banks, S&Ls, etc Nov 30, 2012
• @Frank_McG Consider it a different way… I think it would b more likely to see a case prosecuted over insider information w/ CDS trading $$ Nov 30, 2012
• @Frank_McG I’ve never seen a case tried for insider information on bonds, because gains r less, but technically, legally it is possible $$ Nov 30, 2012
• Congress controls the purse strings, not the Presidency, which is too powerful as an office already. Bad… http://t.co/iGBUVgtw Nov 30, 2012
• But when she became CEO, she could have paid the ~$100MM breakup fee. She didn’t, so she is partly to blame. http://t.co/N1xiZ0mh Nov 30, 2012
• @ritholtz Dear Barry, is that a real plus? We have increasing delinquencies there, in the face of nondischargability in bankruptcy $$ Nov 29, 2012
• @danielckoontz Thank you, dear friend Nov 29, 2012
• @munilass I’m no expert, but CALPERS would have2 point @ California statutes/constitution requiring the payment http://t.co/UJpO1m3T Nov 28, 2012
• @williamalden Not surprising. Academics & pseudo-academics r easy to co-opt. Most of the members worked in finance & r its friends $$ Nov 28, 2012
• @Sir_Strangelove Free trade is a simple concept, & is hindered by Eurocrats. Free trade means fewer laws & regulations, not more $$ Nov 28, 2012
• @Sir_Strangelove No. The Euro is the worst of it, but nations need to have their own unique rules to function well, not standardization $$ Nov 28, 2012
• @EddyElfenbein Funny in a way, because at the beginning of his career, his main research tools were S&P and Moody’s stock reports $$ Nov 28, 2012
• “You have more to say than Taleb. He has not had a useful new idea in 10 years.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/sSh4Qetw $$ @reformedbroker Nov 28, 2012
• @JayLeonard So, more like $2.0-2.5T per year Nov 27, 2012
• @JayLeonard I think they are wrong. Other statistics I have seen indicate the amount is 8% of GDP, or $1.2T plus whatever the current gap is Nov 27, 2012
• @carney My comment: If you pay $400M to get $500M over 30 years, the IRR is 1.45%. Better to buy a ladder of muni or corporate bonds. $$ Nov 27, 2012
• @AppFlyer Care 2 clarify? Nov 27, 2012
• @BryanMortenson Thanks, appreciated. Nov 27, 2012
• @BryanMortenson Has the latest Financial Report of the US Government come out yet? Due soon. Thought I was on the email list… Nov 27, 2012
• @carney Best place to look would be Canadian Mortgage bubble articles like this: http://t.co/w1Zk7Uhc Nov 27, 2012
• @TheStalwart This is why I don’t follow any monthly numbers for my investing: noise/signal is high. Even a year of data, noise swamps signal Nov 27, 2012
• @richtoscano I largely agree. My main disagreement is that the majority says rates must go up, and for some time, but they don’t $$ Nov 27, 2012
• @richtoscano They R the best comparisons that we have 2 the current situation. I respect U, Rich, but wht wld B a better comparison? $$ Nov 27, 2012
• “You may have a long wait. Great Depression & Modern Japan went on over 10 years.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/YlMSAU9c http://t.co/XVq1wgWO Nov 26, 2012
• @jonsticha Used 2 manage corporates for Fidelity & Guaranty Life. I only guessed, but big rating gaps mean there r two stories told $$ Nov 26, 2012
• @japhychron I don’t know. So many things are messed up that it is impossible to say… 🙁 Nov 26, 2012
• “But Buffett’s tax proposal barely nicks him because he makes little income. His shadow income is?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/7zWRb4SV $$ Nov 26, 2012
• @mickwe Basically, $GOOG bot out a penny stock, $ICOA, virtually inactive & broke. Pays a ~nickel/share for something $.0001 Friday. Huh? $$ Nov 26, 2012
• @BarbarianCap $HOGS Tough company to analyze; doubts as to the reality of assets, financials, according to some Nov 26, 2012
• @GaelicTorus I’ve been through the social work system five times in my life, each time to rescue a child & adopt him. I am not naive. Nov 26, 2012
• @Nonrelatedsense I knew that, but I still think that Taleb had great insights in his first book, and has not grown from there. Nov 25, 2012
• @volatilitysmile A good warning to all of us who put our opinions forthto the public. Nov 25, 2012
• “Taleb has jumped the shark” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/QNdVE57V Sorry to be so blunt $$ Nov 25, 2012
• @PlanMaestro I have friends working in South Sudan on that. Bigger problem is a lack of tending the fields; the culture is not aggressive $$ Nov 25, 2012
• @PlanMaestro One of the most important initial things a developing nation can do is get agriculture right; other things tend to follow $$ Nov 25, 2012
• @moorehn I liked Taleb’s first book a lot. His insights since then have not increased. I think he is on his 16th minute of Warhol’s fame. $$ Nov 24, 2012
• @Convertbond Is there a link for that? Investment dept @ ins co in 93 was reaching for yield through duration @ wrong time 94 bad year 4 dur Nov 24, 2012
• @JamesGRickards If you’re in Baltimore/DC and want to talk, I would be interested in what you are thinking. Let me know. Nov 24, 2012
• @JamesGRickards Too speculative. We should be happy saying that we don’t know. The Bible does not speak to the issue, nor do the Fathers. Nov 24, 2012

For what it is worth

• My week on twitter: 51 retweets received, 3 new listings, 48 new followers, 106 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Nov 29, 2012

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