Sorted Weekly Tweets – The Aleph Blog

Posted on 23 March 2013 by David Merkel

Pettis / China

Modified Pettis: Peripheral country depositors will remember Cyprus & it will affect their future credibility w/deposit guarantees $$ Mar 22, 2013
Pettis: the idea that urbanization creates growth may have the causality backwards. It is far more likely that growth causes urbanization $$ Mar 22, 2013
Parsing the Words of the New Premier http://t.co/KggvVUZ0bf Li Keqiang: We need to leave to the market and society what they can do well $$ Mar 22, 2013
Closer Look: Parsing the Words of the New Premier – http://t.co/8LIiTxxqi0 Previous quote taken from Pettis, led me to this article $$ Mar 22, 2013
Li Keqiang: The reform is about curbing government power. As a self-imposed revolution, it will require real sacrifice and will be painful $$ Mar 22, 2013
Pettis: It turns out that we?ve seen record growth in debt. Is it really a surprise then that [China’s] economy is still growing quickly? Mar 22, 2013
Pettis:It isn?t until you write down the debt associated with the second bridge that you end up with a more meaningful measure of GDP. (3/3) Mar 22, 2013
official measures will have them contributing the same amount to GDP, even though the former creates real value & the latter does not (2/2) Mar 22, 2013
Pettis: If you spend $100 million each on two separate bridges, one of which is actively used and the other rarely used, (1/2) Mar 22, 2013
Biggest Solar Collapse in China Imperils $1.28 Billion http://t.co/yYgYpSpjAv Even w/subsidies solar is an inefficient technology $$ #duh Mar 21, 2013

FOMC

FED Optimistic Forecasts… http://t.co/MjilXrTSX1 The FOMC is always overoptimistic; they consider that 2b a part of their jobs $$ Mar 22, 2013
Wrong:US economy needs a third term of Ben Bernanke http://t.co/fStUDLjy7g A lunatic praises a dangerous lunatic leading US 2 Stagflation $$ Mar 22, 2013
That’s all folks! #FOMC $$ Mar 20, 2013
FOMC Central Tendency for Year end Fed Funds forecast: 2013 0.29%, 2014 0.55%, 2015 1.30%, Long run 4.01% $$ #FOMC Who can tell? Mar 20, 2013
FOMC Central Tendency 4 PCE inflation fcst since December 2012: 2013 1.55%, 2014 1.75%, 2015 1.93%, Long run 2.00% $$ #FOMC Way 2 optimistic Mar 20, 2013
FOMC Central Tendency Unemployment rt fcst since December 2012: 2013 7.35%, 2014 6.77%, 2015 6.20%, Long run 5.57% $$ #FOMC Way 2 optimistic Mar 20, 2013
FOMC Central Tendency for real GDP since December 2012: 2013 2.53%, 2014 3.17%, 2015 3.25%, Long run 2.43% $$ #FOMC Too optimistic 2014-5 Mar 20, 2013
FOMC Central Tendency Change in Fed Funds fcst since December 2012: 2013 -0.11%, 2014 -0.05%, 2015 -0.11%, Long run -.03% $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
FOMC Change in Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming fcst since December 2012: 2.49 yrs, which shortens by 3.4 months $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
FOMC Central Tendency Change in PCE inflation fcst since December 2012: 2013 -0.20%, 2014 -0.03%, 2015 -0.01%, Long run no change $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
FOMC Central Tendency Change in Unemployment rate fcst since December 2012: 2013 -0.13%, 2014 -0.15%, 2015 -0.08%, Long run -0.03% $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
FOMC Central Tendency Change in real GDP since December 2012: 2013 -0.10%, 2014 -0.32%, 2015 -0.13%, Long run -0.03% $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
I am shocked that the Fed doesn’t have estimates on deposit insurance subsidies. That’s either a lie, or they should have that estimate $$ Mar 20, 2013
@pdacosta Good questions on Cyprus & deposit insurance subsidies $$ Mar 20, 2013
Go Pedro! Mar 20, 2013
Federal Reserve, Expected to Continue Stimulus, Tries to Reassure Investors http://t.co/DuoAg3hYTv Doing the same, expecting different $$ Mar 20, 2013
Bernanke Tightens Hold on Fed Message Against Hawks http://t.co/JyGTM0gP1f Wondered when this would happen; naive academic focuses power $$ Mar 20, 2013
Insights from Former Fed Chairmen http://t.co/q3RbM7sm9e Greenspan, meh. Volcker says some interesting things regarding removing stimulus $$ Mar 18, 2013
Fed’s Fisher: Too-big-to-fail banks are crony capitalists http://t.co/t65lN4kaaU Break them up & eliminate their funding advantages $$ Mar 16, 2013

Companies & Industries

Proto Labs seeks 1st acquisition shuns 3D printing http://t.co/56KeW8j4In Instead of creating by layers, start w/a block & cut away $$ $PRLB Mar 22, 2013
Old Tech Stocks, New Value: Santoli http://t.co/jfDtkOAwwX Tough part: estimating moat & probability of obsolescence, margin of safety $$ Mar 22, 2013
Health Insurers Warn on Premiums http://t.co/zzZI2s1s2h Wrote about this b4 law was passed. Was accused of bias $$ http://t.co/WCECEQYuns Mar 22, 2013
Plywood Becomes Hot Item in Housing Recovery http://t.co/2LMfLI43L1 4 confirmation, look here: http://t.co/HbnVnGdJmO Plywood on fire $$ Mar 22, 2013
As Crop Prices Surge, Investment Firms and Farmers Vie for Land http://t.co/B1ESXEnefd Presence of a large amount of borrowed $$ = bubble Mar 22, 2013
Intuitive Robosurgery Training Seen Lacking in Lawsuits http://t.co/VgyqOZqLMD Accidents r common & significant training of MDs needed $$ Mar 21, 2013
Gold Giants Shrink to Fit as Paulson Pushes Breakup http://t.co/9yXUb9Z11s Miners tend 2 overpay for marginal mines w/high variable costs $$ Mar 21, 2013
Americans Cut Restaurant Spending as Taxes Bite http://t.co/VAZELXMwM2 Less $$ available for small luxuries like eating out. Mar 20, 2013
Electronic Arts Ousts CEO as New Game Consoles Await http://t.co/QMDjN8uZmN Game systems shift away from use of PCs; $EA doesn’t adjust $$ Mar 19, 2013
Revealed: The Fragility of US Wireless Customer Loyalty http://t.co/j8U5wZ9GvT May be few choices, but wireless customers r not sticky $$ Mar 18, 2013
Corporate Cash Piles Grow to Record $1.45 Trillion, Moody?s Says http://t.co/0M84CE0tRi How much is domestic & not held 4 margin $$ Mar 18, 2013
Intermediate hold co debt has none of the protections of sr unsec parent co debt, or operating subsidiary debt. Not worth risks, avoid $$ Mar 18, 2013
$HRG Announces Debt Offering by F&G Life Hldgs http://t.co/APQvmAECv3 Total desperation w/intermediate holdco debt; Avoid, avoid, avoid $$ Mar 18, 2013
Private Equity?s $36B Retail Bet Not Going So Well http://t.co/xdQ9NzdAPs Retail does not work well w/leverage aside from mortgage debt $$ Mar 16, 2013

Cyprus

It?s Up to Putin Now: Cyprus Looks to Russia For Love?and Money http://t.co/CJdlAmyM5A Many Russians would lose $$ in Cypriot Bank default Mar 22, 2013
Just Let the Troubled Banks in Cyprus Fail http://t.co/0lSyyTjWIJ @carney gets it right. Protect small deposits, wipe out equity, etc. $$ Mar 22, 2013
ECB May Cut Emergency Funding to Cypriot Banks after Refusal http://t.co/jssqb7og4u If Cyprus’ banks fail, will anything else fail? $$ Mar 21, 2013
Cyprus banks dwarf economy thanks 2funds from wealthy foreigners http://t.co/GbElR3bcTP Countries w/large financial sectors tend 2b risky $$ Mar 20, 2013
BlackRock CEO Fink Says Cyprus Instability Will Be Resolved http://t.co/E3RYIDQENi The politics r pretty toxic; time 2end euro experiment $$ Mar 20, 2013
Outcry over Cyprus bailout taxing bank accounts http://t.co/kQ7DJgUN7P If it can happen in Cyprus, it can happen where you are too $$ #boo Mar 20, 2013
Daylight robbery in Cyprus will come to haunt EMU http://t.co/HsrbbJUVKk Imagine the US grabbing a portion of bank deposits in 1933 $$ #yuck Mar 20, 2013
Deauville Zombie Strikes as Cyprus Tax Inflames Crisis http://t.co/pkStGZyh5M Hard 2 believe confiscation of deposits wouldn’t lead 2runs $$ Mar 19, 2013
The Cyprus precedent @FelixSalmon http://t.co/EXBLMXj3by Taxing via confiscation doesn’t affect incentives, except the incentive 2 hide $$ Mar 18, 2013
Cyprus: What Were They Thinking? and some other notes http://t.co/LJPQ7FRSaT Try 2tax depositors, esp Russians, trigger a bank run, great $$ Mar 18, 2013
Cypriot authorities in revised deal talks http://t.co/f7NXFf5B9S This is getting desperate. Remember when they said subprime was small? $$ Mar 18, 2013
Dejected official: ?If this is successful then it will be used in the future… If this is not successful then who cares about Cyprus.? $$ Mar 18, 2013
Depositors Pay Price in Cyprus Bailout Deal http://t.co/CssNI6QUXK Imagine waking up one morning & 10% of your bank deposits r gone $$ #augh Mar 16, 2013

Energy

Sierra Club blasts new plan to improve fracking http://t.co/izJx8axguf Really depends on how much CO2 truly affects climate, jury is out $$ Mar 22, 2013
Ethanol Slumps Against Gasoline on Speculation Imports to Climb http://t.co/nFGWml3HBZ Profitable to import Brazilian ethanol caps prices $$ Mar 22, 2013
HEARD ON THE STREET: Chevron, Shell and Big Oil’s Big Divide http://t.co/zcrclj78XS FD: + $CVX | Smart move was focusing on crude oil $$ Mar 20, 2013
Wow, North Dakota, That?s a Lot of Oil http://t.co/NzKU4rhswH Up ~1000% in 10 years, would b more w/better transport (pipelines) $$ Mar 20, 2013
Consumers to Pay $13B Price as Ethanol Upends Refiners http://t.co/qRr3ZnGPnB Ethanol an expensive fuel; we would not use it w/o govt req $$ Mar 19, 2013
Valero Cancels Sale of California Refineries http://t.co/tu1lXOLBe4 Now better 2 retain them, if cheap oil can b sent there via rail $$ $VLO Mar 19, 2013
Suntech Said to Get Default Notice on $541M Unpaid Bonds http://t.co/hiA8ZfvW2K Equity likely 2b wiped out, even w/some willing 2 4bear $$ Mar 17, 2013
Canada Wonders Why Crude Oil Is Coming From Texas http://t.co/aIKRNA7UoT This is the price of not permitting pipelines; US oil by tankers $$ Mar 16, 2013
Three Years After the Spill, BP Gets Bullish http://t.co/owgnHfH9w5 FD: + $BP | Lots of valuable assets, but has the culture changed? $$ Mar 16, 2013

Financial Sector Issues

JP Morgan to Issue Its First Mortgage Bond Since 2007 http://t.co/M38KF7463e Reps & warranties weakened; harder 2 put back 2 originators $$ Mar 21, 2013
?In money management what sells is the illusion of certainty.? http://t.co/iiqXAHTRZ8 @researchpuzzler comments on words of @John_Hempton $$ Mar 22, 2013
SumZero Honors: 14 Top Buyside Analysts http://t.co/cZRnfBQJVd @sumzero does a study of buyside analysts to find the best quietly working $$ Mar 22, 2013
Proxy sites dump 1-click vote button on SEC concerns http://t.co/nycHC62TUa Levels the playing field a little bit; mgmt has 2 much power $$ Mar 21, 2013
Masked by Gibberish, the Risks Run Amok http://t.co/bKvbpCRyvZ Floyd Norris can write me 4 clarity, or read this: http://t.co/bhJwuegzP5 $$ Mar 22, 2013
Buffett Says Bet on Natural Juices of Market http://t.co/gyGA34vVMP USA is the most flexible place in the world, but stocks aren’t cheap $$ Mar 21, 2013
DeMarco pushes for 5-year wind down of GSEs http://t.co/aApiRMzoIK Don’t c how politics work here; pols don’t like 2 give up piggy bank $$ Mar 20, 2013
Could gold be the next Libor scandal? | Business http://t.co/gstTm7EWQA Looks like real trades take place, so it doesn’t seem the same $$ Mar 20, 2013
Workers Saving Too Little to Retire http://t.co/tWMYk3cpg8 I know of few people who save 20% of their incomes over 40 years $$ #prettytough Mar 19, 2013
Stock Bulls Get New Member of Club http://t.co/qEOMyG47WM I dunno, this makes me nervous. But 3% more upside in 2013 is no raving bull $$ Mar 19, 2013
Quantitative easing does little to boost gold prices http://t.co/o42EZUMk3T Gold prices react to inflation adjusted cost of carry $$ Mar 18, 2013
Traders Short Junk-Bond ETFs as Gains Top 100%: Credit Markets http://t.co/4CmFy3ebaC Short interest = 11.5% of total outstanding shares $$ Mar 18, 2013
Wrong: Want to Fix the Deficit? Get Real http://t.co/3fuRoKKw6S Increasing the deficit from here would worsen our long-term problems $$ Mar 16, 2013
Boo! Derivatives, Japan, $$ demise, pension defaults, debt jubilee RT @StockTwits: Zombie Swans from Outer Space http://t.co/jcNoTTzolI #boo Mar 16, 2013
How to Safeguard Your 401(k) http://t.co/HRCNqz1RkJ If plan has annual match, do not count on it. Avoid employer stock; know plan rules $$ Mar 16, 2013
Company Insiders Are Dumping Shares! Or Are They? http://t.co/D5cgLmM902 Best to look at what insiders do, not the large outside holders $$ Mar 16, 2013
If third-party custody fails in any significant way, i.e. bigger than what happened w/MF Global, all public investing will b ruined $$ Mar 16, 2013
Are Your Assets Safe?No Matter What? http://t.co/vWvSVno7JC @jasonzweigwsj talks about custody; strong incentive 4 present system 2 work $$ Mar 16, 2013
Golden State Hits Golden Age Of Bank M&A http://t.co/WLFhPq8jFC Higher capital requirements create demand for banks 2 merge in California $$ Mar 16, 2013

Rest of the World

Is Emerging Market Debt Undervalued? http://t.co/8hSOukeOKf I tend 2 think so, but performance so far this year has been subpar $$ Mar 22, 2013
Bank of Japan vows ‘all means available’ to smash deflation http://t.co/AJ27okuZFZ Difficult 2 have inflation w/shrinking population $$ Mar 22, 2013
BRICs: a Slowing Dilemma http://t.co/furMgL5VTO The BRICs r not a natural group; very different econ, but as GWP growth slows, so do they $$ Mar 21, 2013
RAHN: Where will the next financial crisis begin? http://t.co/x2rBMqCJUG Numerous countries r poised 2 lead global tailspin; I pick EZone $$ Mar 21, 2013
Spanish Banks Cut Developers as Zombies Dying http://t.co/CxRucV5Y7h Bottom not yet found for Spanish Real Estate $$ #bringoutyerdead #thud Mar 21, 2013
Europe?s work is far from over http://t.co/JfIY5PRW4f This is a colossal example of government management of the economy gone awry $$ #endit Mar 20, 2013
Canadian Household – Drowning in Debt http://t.co/XsdSDPBUn8 Canada: poster child 4 Central Bank-induced bubbles, amid good fiscal policy $$ Mar 20, 2013
BRICs Abandoned by Locals as Fund Outflows Reach 1996 High http://t.co/Xv4QZrNmSX Locals r throwing in the towel on stocks; time 2 buy? $$ Mar 16, 2013
Argentina Debates Pope’s Political Past http://t.co/FY25FtCCF2 Probably one where the truth will never b known; hard to fight a dictator $$ Mar 16, 2013

US Politics & Policy

Stockton Creditors Face Long Odds to End City Bankruptcy http://t.co/WcEuHjJft1 Think Stockton’s gambit will lose $$ cc: @munilass Mar 22, 2013
Gingrich-Santorum ?Unity Ticket? Almost Toppled Romney http://t.co/8jBjvs868Q G+S-> 0+0 = -1. Romney= -2. All R candidates fatally flawed $$ Mar 22, 2013
Getting the CIA Out of the Drone War http://t.co/kWcxz4mooN It matters less who does it, because there is no moral basis for it $$ #enditnow Mar 22, 2013
Mary Pat Christie Juggles Roles as Political Facilitator http://t.co/04VJb6UcbD Interesting background piece on Chris Christie’s wife $$ Mar 22, 2013
Postal Service Can?t Cut Saturday Delivery, GAO Says http://t.co/3BbcJ1arge Loss of Saturday would b start of end 4 USPS> less relevant $$ Mar 21, 2013
Rotten Tomatoes for a Billion-Dollar Farm Payout http://t.co/8FMfZnvqZC Ag is doing well in the US. Time to shut down much of the Ag Dept $$ Mar 21, 2013
California Nonpartisan Districting Ousts Life Incumbents http://t.co/1edUiXyizM Minimize internal boundaries subject 2 law requirements $$ Mar 20, 2013
Army Carbine Program May Waste $1.8 Billion, Report Finds http://t.co/WQOhHRZ5Mw Another area of DoD waste. Insiders tell me -> lots more $$ Mar 20, 2013
The Smarter Healthcare Consumer Myth http://t.co/BSdzrzQmMu Many underinsured people do not go to see a doctor when they are sick $$ Mar 19, 2013
Puerto Rico slides toward insolvency http://t.co/WaOVo1dWUa Puerto Rico exists to make California look responsible & Illinois honest $$ Mar 18, 2013
Or, as the late Bob Casey (former Governor of PA) once said, “You can’t lose if you are a pro-life Democrat.” $$ Mar 18, 2013
RNC Issues Scathing Analysis of GOP http://t.co/CsROwzkNxT Sounds dumb. Does not grasp the reliance of the GOP on moral issues voters $$ Mar 18, 2013
It’s a Lonely Quest for Land-Tax Fans, But, by George, They Press On http://t.co/yt8tPEVgjV Candidate 4 dustbin of history, dying hard $$ Mar 18, 2013
Republicans Foil What Majority Wants by Gerrymandering http://t.co/h2gMnsO5cp I live in MD, w/Democrat Gerrymander http://t.co/9ORTUnVjo9 $$ Mar 18, 2013
Roadkill May Reach Montana Menus Under Bill Allowing Fare http://t.co/5UsoOXeAsr Interesting 2c differences in state policies 4 roadkill $$ Mar 17, 2013
Obama Will Use Nixon-Era Law to Fight Climate Change http://t.co/HxRrpdoajr Expands National Environmental Policy Act to Climate Change $$ Mar 16, 2013

Other

The Beatles vs. the Taxman: A Former Manager Recalls Yesterday http://t.co/wNikAvMAdh Union of music,culture &finance cc: @reformedbroker $$ Mar 22, 2013
The Odd, Enduring Power of D?rer’s ‘Praying Hands’ http://t.co/QzEQsRYalP An idol 2b destroyed; far better 2 pray, regardless of hands $$ Mar 22, 2013
‘The Croods’: Making the Cartoons Sing http://t.co/Pj50Vytvuo As a musician, I find this article makes me optimistic on popular music $$ Mar 22, 2013
‘BioShock Infinite’: A Videmeogame With a Political Philosophy http://t.co/NzxQqrTXkM Americans r exceptional; doesn’t mean they r good $$ Mar 22, 2013
The Branding of ‘Liger’: Tiger Woods and Lindsey Vonn http://t.co/AW1CGnYHLh Two attractive sports stars dating? A marketing opportunity! $$ Mar 21, 2013
Inside the Art of Handling Negative Online Reviews http://t.co/vzsenUcvjq When negative reviews come, act quickly, it could wipe you out $$ Mar 21, 2013
Silicon Valley looks to Amy Andersen for love, at $50K a pop http://t.co/yVj37tUL9C Awkward men seeking wives need tailored personal help $$ Mar 20, 2013
How To Quarantine Java Like The Disease That It’s Become http://t.co/uhUcbRhFqh Sadly, I have to keep Java 4 my trading platform $$ #poison Mar 19, 2013
Study: Delaying marriage hurts middle-class Americans most http://t.co/ynHKcN4m4x Putting off marriage often means marriages don’t happen $$ Mar 18, 2013
Helmets Preventing Concussion Seen Quashed by NFL-Riddell http://t.co/FF4Gh6Viyn Long story on how conflicts of interest led2 concussions $$ Mar 18, 2013
With Speech, Cardinal Set Path 2 Papacy http://t.co/rDDOXEwCA2 Argued RC Church was 2 introspective, better 2b out doing good, short talk $$ Mar 17, 2013
The New Unmarried Moms http://t.co/1hnxyrE67R Teen pregnancy reduced, childbearing outside wedlock rising among 20-somethings $$ #bad4kids Mar 16, 2013
New York Is Sterilizing Its Rats. Here’s How http://t.co/qryyCDiLoK Tasty stuff for rats that renders them infertile in 4 days $$ #whoknew Mar 16, 2013

Replies & Retweets

Could work $$ RT @steve_hanke: @AlephBlog @carney or try a swap. Here’s how we did it in Latin America: http://t.co/fvT6V6dX9u| #Cyprus Mar 22, 2013
@SconsetCapital In China, if the gov’t builds two bridges in a BOGO deal, I don’t think you’d want the free one 😉 Mar 22, 2013
@Donald_Shekels No, not with the Asian operations Mar 22, 2013
@Donald_Shekels I could have said worse than I did, but I worry about getting sued. Mar 22, 2013
@JPDesloges You are off to a good start at Financial Iceberg. Keep it up. Mar 21, 2013
@agnestcrane Global Inequality is dropping, though. Global wages converging. “Rethinking Comparable Worth” http://t.co/qBWe9kxnim $$ Mar 21, 2013
Get well soon! RT @StockTwits: StockTwits Is presently down. Apologies for the inconvenience. We should be back up shortly. $$ Mar 21, 2013
@exMBB No. But title insurers had a rough time after housing bubble. Fraud drives most title insurance claims. Title insurance is complex Mar 20, 2013
@exMBB It’s all heavily depreciated. Not an issue. Mar 20, 2013
Commented on StockTwits: You’ve got it, Charles. Where IB is good it is very, very good, & where it is bad it is … http://t.co/o4fpUt2j66 Mar 20, 2013
@sleepyhungry It’s like a barrier option. Once it is breached it is over — this is only the 7th time I have done this. U made me smile Mar 20, 2013
Doing what their targets do RT @rcwhalen: Foreclosure Processor Prommis Holdings Files Chapter 11 http://t.co/mE30yP1gtj $$ Mar 19, 2013
But I think he is running out of options $$ $HRG RT @Nonrelatedsense: @AlephBlog continually amazed by Falcone. How does he do it? Mar 18, 2013
Extracts purchase price, retains control, kills bond buyers RT @Nonrelatedsense: continually amazed by Falcone. How does he do it? $$ Mar 18, 2013
I liked the photo RT @fundmyfund: @ritholtz what are you looking at in the new blog photo – a bird, a plane, or superman? Mar 18, 2013
RT @Royal_Arse: Mr. Merkel @AlephBlog is far more diplomatic than I in his tweet regarding pipeline construction. https://t.co/HIE2ngC4A3 Mar 16, 2013
@pdacosta 2 create a synthetic, u need 2 speculators: yield hog who wants a security @ a high yield, & a speculator who wants 2 short it Mar 16, 2013
@pdacosta If that ever had to happen, would b a crisis b/c synthetics r more numerous than organic. They can b & were created @ will. Mar 16, 2013

FWIW

My week on twitter: 54 retweets received, 2 new listings, 31 new followers, 58 mentions. Via: http://t.co/cPSEMLXpb8 Mar 21, 2013
Here’s my NCAA Bracket: http://t.co/ZK22T2bKnV #BlindfoldBracket2013 I’m no great fan of College Basketball, but I gave it a try $$ Mar 20, 2013
David Merkel (AlephBlog) on Twitter http://t.co/PsixuvsqiX Here’s a shout-out to my 7000th Twitter follower, Peter Saris @BMCA2461. Thanks! Mar 20, 2013

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