US Economics
- For all the debt, there’s a shortage of bonds?stks.co/cUj1?There isn’t a shortage of bonds, but of yield w/reasonable safety $$
- FED Very Low Inflation Panic Button: Soon DEFCON 2?stks.co/sDIg?Argues that Fed will give up confident talk &continue easing $$
- Wake up! Neither political party cares about the rest of us.?#deadlyduopoly
- Fiscal Policy. Oy!?stks.co/dUhl?Dick Fisher gives us nuanced view of economic policy; if u aren’t confused u aren’t thinking $$
- US Budget Deficit Shrinks Far Faster Than Expected?stks.co/sD6D?Still high, and now the Fed is absorbing almost all of deficit $$
- The Question the Fed Should Be Askingstks.co/eUhV?The Fed is trapped in the imagination that they can resist debt deflation $$
- Wrong:Easy Money: Too Much of a Good Thing??stks.co/pD3E?No matter how slowly they remove policy accommodation it will backfire $$
- Washington & Wall Street: Ben Bernanke’s Global Inflation Strategystks.co/fVol?Japan imitates US: inflationary race 2 the bottom
- Fed Maps Exit From Stimulusstks.co/rChx?Much wishful thinking on Bernanke’s part, will b really tough 2 remove accommodation $$
- Beware Volatile Bond-Market Moodstks.co/tCj8?Bond market will b very sensitive to every nuance of comments by Fed Governors $$
- Red Jahncke: The Federal Revenue Surge Won’t Last?stks.co/fVZ7?People took gains taking advantage of low rates, easy huh? $$
- Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Ratesstks.co/qCVk?Interested in getting the real yield rates on TIPS? U can that & more here $$
- US High-Yield Bond Conundrum: First Warning from Bernanke??stks.co/aUGJCorporations can borrow, buy back stock, improve EPS $$
- Are US Lumber Prices Giving us a Warning??stks.co/aUGE?Falling pretty rapidly; is this a sign of an economic slowdown coming? $$
- Bernanke: Big Banks May Face Higher Capital Requirements?stks.co/hVVNModestly optimistic: Fed to reform margining 4 repos $$
- Wrong: Fed Maps Exit From Stimulusstks.co/eU99?At present, this is formless & void, w/the doves controlling monetary policy $$
US Politics
- Greg Lukianoff: Feds to Students: You Can’t Say That?stks.co/iWK2?The first amendment should deal w/this $$
- Puerto Rico?s New Governor: We?re ?Back on Track??stks.co/iWK1?We’ve heard this before; ask how big unfunded accruals are $$
- White House Releases Benghazi Emailsstks.co/fW4S?How many scandals can the Obama Administration bear at once? $$
- CBO Sees Deficit Narrowing to $642 Billion?stks.co/fVoK?Good as far as it goes, but nowhere near balanced, keep cutting please $$
- Republicans Risk Razing Arizona Edge by Losing Hispanics?stks.co/eUHi?US political landscape shifting; Red party lost West US $$
- Crop insurance expands, costs grow in latest US farm bills?stks.co/cU8h?Ag subsidies decline, but crop insurance costs rise $$
- Rating Firms Steer Clear of an Overhaulstks.co/eUHL?There’s no other choice; this has worked out as I predicted $$
- In La-La Land, America?s Silliest Electionstks.co/iVOz?In the dictionary, next to the word “hopeless” in a picture of LA $$
- How Many More ?Red Lines? Must Syria Cross??stks.co/sCKR?Not so fast: how have results turned out in Iraq, Afghanistan & Libya? $$
Financial Markets
- Regulators Target Exchanges As They Ready Record Fine?stks.co/iWJu?Another type of trading on material nonpublic information $$
- ?Give the Market the Benefit of the Doubt? and Invest in Stocks:?@ritholtzstks.co/gWEh?When do we reduce exposure then? $$
- Wrong: Kovacevich Says Only About 20 Institutions Caused Credit Crisisstks.co/dUfn?Overlending on Resid RE caused the crisis $$
- The market isn’t merely crawling a wall of worry but we’re rapidly approaching the crown molding of disbelief.
- Rise of the Zombies: Fannie, Freddie preferred shares hit post-bailout highs yesterday?on.wsj.com/12tcX6r?Fool me once…
- Wrong: Warren pushes SEC, regulators on ?too-big-for-trial? banks?stks.co/hW7fSounds good in concept; very hard to execute $$
- S&P Cuts Rating on Berkshire Hathawaystks.co/dUW6?| FD: +?$BRK.B?Maybe Buffett should own some McGraw Hill for protection $$
- Investors Flood Into Loan Fundsstks.co/jVtV?People imagine that they can earn high yield off of levered junk w/little risk $$
- “The lower the gold price, the more nervous investors holding these positions will become.”?stks.co/gW22Kinda perverse market $$
- Rethink your bond strategy for retirementstks.co/cU8r?What if interest rates don’t rise, amid economic weakness? What then? $$
- Brokers Go Gray as Youth Unsustainable Without Cold Calls?stks.co/pCogHappened w/life agents 2, eventually sorts itself out $$
- Stock Buybacks: We Separate Smart from Dumb?stks.co/iVXm?Check free cash flow & relative valuation; check soundness of buybacks $$
- Mortgages are investment du jour for hedge funds?stks.co/bUB7?Hedge funds r weak holders & r buying in the eighth inning $$
- Farmland: The market ‘bubble’ you’ve never heard of?stks.co/gVSL?Watch debt financing levels; high levels would indicate bubble $$
- Fitch:US Corporate Cash Part I: Growth at an Inflection Point??stks.co/jVJkCorporations hoard cash b/c cost of doing so is low $$
- Does the Sohn Conference Make Hedge-Fund Geniuses Stupid??stks.co/jVBvMany investment “geniuses” were one-trick ponies $$
Europe
- EC ready to hit Chinese companies with sanctions over illegal subsidiesstks.co/rCo3?Currency wars may give way 2 trade wars $$
- Europeans must face up to prospect of massive debt restructuring?stks.co/iVrN?If Euro survives there will b bail-ins >Cyprus $$
- Greek Bonds Soar After Fitch Upgradestks.co/sCoB?Fear gives way to greed as austerity solutions begin to ebb & recovery starts $$
China
- China’s outstanding corporate debt to surpass US?stks.co/tD62?When China govt steps away, corporate defaults will surpass US 2 $$
- Grade A office rents under pressure after years of rises?stks.co/rChi?W/all of the overbuilding, what should you expect? $$
- @AlephBlog?That last tweet was about office space in China.
Japan
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- Japan Posts Surge in Economic Growthstks.co/bUaO?Too soon; we need to see the effect on inflation, which will lag $$
- World?s Worst Bonds Brace for Losses on Abe Growth?stks.co/pCtF?Japanese bonds deliver significant losses in USD term 2 holders $$
- Yen at Four-Year Low Prompts Fujitsu to Raise PC Prices?stks.co/fVjU?Could it be that policy is finally creating reflation? $$
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Rest of the World
- Euro-Style Bail-In Plan Means Bondholder Wipe-Out?stks.co/hW7gCorrect; wipe common, preferred, bonds, deposits protected2limit $$
- Canadian Housing Bubble Review: Overpriced and Overbuilt?stks.co/pCuPBubbles never deflate slowly; incentives lead to panic $$
- Commented on StockTwits: Yes, the US has shifted more to temporary workers & it will get worse under Obamacare, bu…stks.co/cUG9
- Canada’s shift to a nation of temporary workers?stks.co/tCjD?Puts pressure on lower-skilled workers to move among a few jobs $$
- @agnestcrane?Feels like the Brazilian Govt is driving?$PBR?into the ground. Income is anemic, debt is rising, would b reluctant 2buy
Other
- The New Science Behind Philanthropystks.co/qDJX?This isn’t science, but gambling; putting $$ on longshots w/big payoffs
- Dodging companies before disaster strikes?stks.co/rDGz?The simple aspects of ethical investing r doable; don’t make it complex $$
- Secret Rocks and Gem Huntersstks.co/dUVz?The $10B jewels industry is shrouded in beauty?and mystery. Is change about to come? $$
- In U.S., Apostrophes in Place Names Are Practically Against the Law?stks.co/tD6VJust another sign of cultural stupidity $$
- @The_Analyst?It varies a great deal, but mostly I go to bed late; today I am up early.
- Harvard-for-Free Meets Resistance as US Professors See Threat?stks.co/fVoQOvercapacity in colleges coming 2a crisis state $$?#bye
- Why More Young Kids Cheat at Schoolstks.co/fVoP?We r basically evil, not good, we should b surprised when children don’t cheat $$
- North Jersey Data Center Industry Blurs Utility-Real Estate Boundariesstks.co/aUKZ?Data centers r about energy costs & space $$
- Martin, CEO of ING U.S. on Growth Outlook?$VOYA?stks.co/sCXN?CEO seems flustered, did not answer the questions he was asked.
- Bloomberg Isn’t The Only Company Able To Spy On Users?stks.co/eUHm?Wise 2 ask 3rd party vendors 4 how they keep ur data private $$
FWIW
- My week on twitter: 32 retweets received, 25 new followers, 37 mentions. Via:20ft.net/p
David — I have commented about ethics on your blog before, and I think this Benghazi-gate, AP-gate, IRS-gate thing (unwittingly) highlights the underlying problem … both in Washington and at CFA institute.
Maybe Obama / Holder ordered the illegal AP wiretaps. Maybe Obama or Hillary Clinton or the CIA or the KGB or the Men in Black tried to cover up what a policy screw up Libya turned out to be. Maybe the IRS were told to use tax code to punish Obama’s political enemies — by Obama himself, by Senator Schumer, by Max Baucus, or by some little green man from Mars. Maybe Bush appointed the IRS chief, maybe the little green man from Mars did that too.
Who cares? This is like children in the back seat of a car on the family road trip arguing about who hit who first. The dad is going to lose it and pull over the car no matter who hit who first.
I have no evidence either way, but lets assume Obama personally ordered the IRS agents to break the law and target his enemies… the act is still morally and ethically **WRONG**, and the IRS agents knew it. The agents broke the law, violated citizens trust — and need to be sent to prison even if it turns out they were ordered by some politician to target conservatives.
“I was just following orders” has always been considered a crappy excuse in the past … and it is here too. What the IRS agents did was wrong, and they knew it (or they aren’t qualified to be in their jobs in the first place — but I think they knew it was wrong all along).
The IRS agents would not tolerate a citizen cheating on their taxes because an accountant said so, or a company cheating because a CEO said so … so what makes these criminals think they should not be held accountable now?
Of course the IRS agents are guilty. Yes, they need to go to prison. Maybe some politicians should join them, but even if the IRS agents were ordered to break the law — their actions were still illegal.
The Dept of Justice employees are adults. How did any of them make it through law school without hearing about the Watergate affair? Whether Atty General Holder ordered them to make illegal wiretaps of AP reporters or not … the DoJ bureaucrats knew what they were doing was WRONG.
And while I risk being labeled partisan for saying this, I think Obama is to blame for these messes — but not for the reasons the media is giving.
Much as I think Obama is clueless buffoon who made the health system even worse than it was… I have to admit he is but one man and puts his pants on one leg at a time. He can’t know every action that every little bureaucrat is doing at every moment.
But as the leader of the country, Obama sets the tone. That’s on him.
Obama claims ObamaCare is his signature legislation (his own opinion, his own words). But his signature legislation was “passed” into law via a combination of accounting fraud, in-our-face bribery of Congress members, and legal trickery.
Obama wanted his legislation so badly, he didn’t care what tactics were used to jam it into law. Obama looked the other way at all the crimes committed in legislating his signature legislation.
Obama looked the other way when he knew it was WRONG. What message does that send to lowly bureaucrats? What message does that send to aspiring students? What message is he sending to all citizens?
Of course, Obama is hardly the first loser in the White House to cut corners and look the other way. Given their personalities, there is a good chance McCain or Romney would be cutting other corners or looking the other way on some other unethical activity. That doesn’t make Obama’s behavior any less bad.
Even if Bush or Clinton or whomever cut corners first — it would not exonerate Obama. He is the guy in the CEO suite at the moment. He is the guy setting the tone for the government and the country.
And the message he is sending is this: it is OK to lie, cheat, cut corners … break the rules, break the law. “Win” at all costs, even if you have to cheat.
Any coach that tells his/her team to cheat to win would be fired. Why should CEOs of banks or Presidents of nations be held to a lower standard?