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Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control

Posted on 1 November 20141 November 2014 by David Merkel

On Thursday, November 23rd, I was recorded to be on RT Boom/Bust. The first half of it played that day, and the video of it is below:

We covered a lot of ground in a short amount of time. ?Here are the topics, with articles of mine that flesh out my thoughts in more detail (if any):

The falling price of crude oil.
Whether it is a great time to be in stocks (I give a mixed answer), see comment near bottom of this article on actual versus implied volatility.
On the Permanent Portfolio concept?(also here)
On Buffett’s stock holdings not doing so well, versus those of some hedge funds and value managers (On how Buffett has changed over the years — also here)
On the use of free cash flow for organic growth, dividends, and buybacks? (also here?[includes a mention of IBM] and here)

The second half of it played today on October 31st, and the video of it is below:

Here we talked about the following:

The rally in Long Treasuries
A few investment ideas (Russia, Brazil, LUKOIL, Ensco, Navient, and SABESP)
Using dividend paying stocks as a bond substitute for income?(also here)

I really appreciated being on the show. ?Hope you enjoy the videos. ?Thinking fast is a challenge, and you can often see me trying to gather my thoughts.

My thanks to Erin, the producer Ed Harrison, and their segment producer, Bianca.

Full disclosure: long LUKOY, ESV, NAVI and SBS for clients and me

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David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures. Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions. Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.