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| December 2016 | February 2017 | Comments |
| Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. | Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. | No real change. |
| Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. | Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate stayed near its recent low. | No real change. |
| Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. | Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment has remained soft. | No real change. |
| Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late. | New sentence. | |
| Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. | Inflation increased in recent quarters but is still below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective. | Shades their view of inflation up. |
| Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. | What would be a high number, pray tell?? TIPS are showing higher inflation expectations since the last meeting. 5y forward 5y inflation implied from TIPS is near 2.15%, up 0.07%? from December. |
| Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. | Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. | No change. Any time they mention the ?statutory mandate,? it is to excuse bad policy. But don?t blame the Fed, blame Congress. |
| The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. | The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will rise to 2 percent over the medium term. | Drops references to falling energy prices stopping, and wage pressures. Strengthens language on inflation, which is a slam dunk, given that it is there already on better inflation measures than the PCE deflator. |
| Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. | Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. | No change. |
| In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. | In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/2 to 3/4 percent. | No change. Builds in the idea that they are reacting at least partially to expected future conditions in inflation and labor. |
| The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. | The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. | No change. They don?t get that policy direction, not position, is what makes policy accommodative or restrictive.? Think of monetary policy as a drug for which a tolerance gets built up.
What would a non-accommodative monetary policy be, anyway? |
| In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. | In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. | No change. |
| This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. | This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. | No change.? Gives the FOMC flexibility in decision-making, because they really don?t know what matters, and whether they can truly do anything with monetary policy. |
| In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. | In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. | No change. |
| The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. | The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. | No change.? Says that they will go slowly, and react to new data.? Big surprises, those. |
| The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. | The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. | No change.? Says it will keep reinvesting maturing proceeds of treasury, agency debt and MBS, which blunts any tightening. |
| Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. | Full agreement; new people. |
Comments
- The FOMC holds, but deludes itself that it is still accommodative.
- The economy is growing well now, and in general, those who want to work can find work.
- Maybe policy should be tighter. The key question to me is whether lower leverage at the banks was a reason for ultra-loose policy.
- The change of the FOMC?s view is that inflation is higher. Equities are stable and bonds fall a little. Commodity prices rise and the dollar weakens.
- The FOMC says that any future change to policy is contingent on almost everything.
The global economy is growing, inflation is rising globally, the dollar is rising, and the 30-year Treasury has not moved all that much relative to all of that. ?My guess is that the FOMC could get the Fed funds rate up to 2% if they want to invert the yield curve. ?A rising dollar will slow the economy and inflation somewhat.
Aside from that, I am looking for what might blow up. ?Maybe some country borrowing too much in dollars? ?Tightening cycles almost always end with a bang.
“Aside from that, I am looking for what might blow up. Maybe some country borrowing too much in dollars?” In the past hasn’t that usually been the country/sector/industry that has had the most rapid debt growth?
Nick de Peyster
http://undervaluedstocks.info/
Yes, it most often is — what would you think of there? I have thought that governments fit the bill — also, a currency or duration mismatch could exacerbate the situation.
How about securities in Emerging / Frontier bond ETFs? The kind of thing that is bought for its liquidity characteristics rather than for its investment characteristics. Hot money starts leaving due to currency fears, ETFs lose principal, US savers start selling out of the ETF en masse and the shorts pile in?
The problem is that the big expanders of leverage in this expansion have been sovereigns and there is alot of ruin in a nation. Fundamentals in every western country (particularly when non-debt obligations are listed) are grim, but they are also long term.
Stocks seem to me to be the biggest risk, and within that class, the yieldcos, but then this is hardly an insight.
Oh, munis. Definitely munis. Huge refunding risk there. All of them overlevered and if tax rates are lowered, their discount to corporate rates will diminish while rates are going up. Higher rates help them a bit on their pension obligations, but these are so underfunded as a rule that it won’t matter.