Well, this market is nothing if not special. ?The S&P 500 has gone 84 trading days without a loss of 1% or more. ?As you can see in the table below, that ranks it #17 of all streaks since 1950. ?If it can last through February 27th, it will be the longest streak since 1995. ?If it can last through March 23rd, it will be the longest streak since 1966. ?The all-time record (since 1950) would take us all the way to June.

Here’s another way to think about this — look at the VIX. ?It closed today at 10.85. ?Sleepy, sleepy… no risk to be found. ?When you don’t have any significant falls in the market, the VIX tends to sag. ?Aside from the election, which is an exception to the rule, the last two peaks of the VIX over the last six months were after 1%+ drops in the S&P 500.

The same would apply to credit spreads, which are also tight. ?No one expects a change in liquidity, a credit event, a national security incident, etc. ?But as I commented on Friday:

I think the thing that would hurt the most money managers is a melt-up that they would feel forced 2 chase, followed by a hard correction $$

? David Merkel (@AlephBlog) February 10, 2017

This is an awkward time when you have a lot of people arguing that the market CAN’T GO HIGHER! ?Let me tell you, it can go higher.

Will it go higher? ?Who knows?

Should it go higher? ?That’s the better question, and may help with the prior question. ?If you’re thinking strictly about absolute valuation, it shouldn’t go higher — we’re in the mid-80s on a percentile basis. ?On a relative valuation basis, where are you going to go? ?On a momentum basis, it should go higher. ?It’s not a rip-roarer in terms of angle of ascent, which bodes well for it. ?The rallies that fail tend to be more violent, and this one is kinda timid.

We sometimes ask in investing “who has the most to lose?” ?As in my tweet above, that very well could be asset allocators with low stock allocations that conclude that they need to chase the rally. ?Or, retail waking up to how great this bull market has been, concluding that they have been missing out on “free money.”

Truth, I’m not hearing many people at all banging the drum for this rally. ?There is a lot of skepticism.

As for me, I don’t care much. ?It’s not a core skill of mine, nor is it a part of my business. ?I am finding cheap stocks still, and I will keep investing through thick and thin, unless the 10-year forecast model that I use says future returns are below 3%/year. ?Then I will hedge, and encourage my clients to do so as well.

Until then, the game is on. ?Let’s see how far this streak goes.

==========================================

Streaks of over 50 days since 1950

Rank	Date	Streak	Year
1	10/8/1963	154	1963
2	2/28/1966	154	1966
3	6/7/1954	142	1954
4	6/3/1964	131	1964
5	4/17/1961	119	1961
6	7/26/1957	115	1957
7	6/12/1985	112	1985
8	5/17/1995	110	1995
9	12/15/1995	105	1995
10	10/30/1967	103	1967
11	5/13/1958	102	1958
12	11/2/1993	95	1993
13	11/24/2006	94	2006
14	2/12/1993	87	1993
15	8/15/1952	86	1952
16	12/20/1968	85	1968
17	2/10/2017	84	2017
18	8/31/1979	82	1979
19	11/30/1964	81	1964
20	6/2/1950	75	1950
21	6/1/1965	75	1965
22	8/23/1972	74	1972
23	5/8/1972	73	1972
24	2/4/1953	70	1953
25	4/24/1962	67	1962
26	7/16/2014	66	2014
27	10/14/1958	65	1958
28	6/10/1969	65	1969
29	12/2/1996	65	1996
30	1/27/2004	65	2004
31	2/3/1994	63	1994
32	1/4/1962	60	1962
33	8/18/1976	60	1976
34	12/20/1985	60	1985
35	9/18/1961	58	1961
36	5/14/1971	58	1971
37	2/9/1989	58	1989
38	7/19/1968	57	1968
39	1/19/2006	56	2006
40	10/18/1951	55	1951
41	9/13/1978	55	1978
42	2/27/1963	54	1963
43	3/29/1977	54	1977
44	6/23/2016	54	2016
45	8/21/1953	53	1953
46	7/11/1960	53	1960
47	11/19/1969	52	1969
48	9/8/1994	52	1994
49	9/8/2016	51	2016