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| June 2017 | July 2017 | Comments |
| Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. | Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. | No change.? Feels like GDP is slowing, though. |
| Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. | Job gains have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. | Shades labor conditions up |
| Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. | Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to expand. | No real change |
| On a 12-month basis, inflation has declined recently and, like the measure excluding food and energy prices, is running somewhat below 2 percent. | On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined and are running below 2 percent. | Changes, but to little effect. |
| Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. | No change |
| Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. | Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. | No change; somebody tell them that things that can?t change don?t belong here. |
| The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. | The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. | No change; monetary policy solves all. |
| Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely. | Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely. | No change. |
| In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. | In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. | No change. |
| The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. | The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. | No change, but monetary policy is no longer accommodative.? The short end of the forward curve continues to rise, and the curve flattens. |
| In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. | In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. | No change |
| This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. | This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. | No change.? If you don?t know what will drive decision-making, i.e., it could be anything, just say that. |
| The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. | The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. | No change. Symmetric: we can?t let inflation get too low, because we don?t regulate banks properly. |
| The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. | The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. | No change |
| However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. | However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. | No change |
| The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. | For the time being, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. | No change |
| The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. | The Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated; | Accelerates the timing of change. |
| This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. | this program is described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. | Promises the slow end of QE, as they may start to let securities mature. |
| Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell. | No dissents; it?s relatively easy to agree with doing nothing. |
| Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate. | No dissents. |
Comments
- Labor conditions are reasonably good. GDP is meandering.
- The yield curve is flattening, with long rates falling.
- Stocks, bonds and gold rise a little.
- I think the Fed is too optimistic about the economy. I also think that they won?t get far into letting securities mature before they resume?reinvestment of maturing bonds. [miswrote that last time]
“I think the Fed is too optimistic about the economy. I also think that they won?t get far into letting securities mature before they resume ”
Does that mean you think the Fed will start expanding its balance sheet again because of weakness in the economy? Or do you mean that they will just stop shrinking it by purchasing an amount of securities matching the amount maturing?
They will resume reinvestment of maturing proceeds.