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In my view, these were my best posts written between November 2016 and January 2017:
Can lessons from the distant past illumine the future?? I think so.
On Long-Term Corporate Investments
This is timely.? Are US firms too short-term in their orientation? No.? To be more controversial, if companies in the rest of the world imitate the US, they will be better off.? They don’t push the present hard enough, and the great long-term returns don’t materialize as a result.
How do you Manage a Company when the Stock is Considerably Overvalued?
This was a fun piece to write.? It is a high quality problem (usually), but the rules are the opposite for firms with undervalued stock, which is more common.
What should you do if you think you missed the rally???What should you do if you think you think you should take money off the table?
How do you balance the short- and long-term in long-only investing?
Often it takes time for an investment thesis to work.? Thus, look at old ideas that have gone nowhere… maybe the work is about to pay off.? Also, other ways to find ideas to buy.
Why are patience and courage the attitudes that most investors need?
In markets, ?what is true? works in the long run. ?What people are growing to believe is true? works in the short run.
Be wary of surrendering liquidity
I talk about interval funds and other illiquid investments.
Liquidity is plentiful now, but what happens when it switches and becomes scarce?
The Value of Risk-Based Capital in Financial Regulation
How to think about asset credit risk for financial institutions.? Also, why a “brain dead” 10% leverage proposal for banks is a bad idea, and really not a conservative idea at all.
A Failure of Insurance Regulation
On the liquidation of Penn Treaty’s subsidiaries, and what things regulators should do to avoid a repeat.? (Hint: apply these ideas to Genworth.)
Call Me When You Have A Real Insurance Company!
Supposedly Hank Greenberg said that to Warren Buffett at one point.? This was written when BRK wrote a huge retroactive cover for AIG, capping prior bad underwriting decisions.
Why you should be careful about what you read in the media, and even from me.
A Cautionary Tale on Municipal Pensions
Why the main municipal pension fund in South Carolina ran into troubles, and what lessons we can learn from that.? (Put on your peril-sensitive sunglasses before reading this…)
Trump and Conflicts of Interest
Why Trump could have IPO’ed his firm, and lost all of the conflicts of interest, despite his objections at the time.
Fertility doesn?t turn on a dime. ?When women conclude that the rewards of society (money, power, approval of peers) go to those with fewer children, that?s a tough cultural idea to overcome. ?I would conclude that it will take a lot longer than a single five-year plan to turn around birthrates in China? if they can be turned around at all. ?All across Asia, marriages happen at lesser rates, happen later, and produce fewer children. ?China is one of the more notable examples.