23 trading days from bull market peak to bear market bottom. 12 trading days from bear market bottom to the start of the new bull market. Both are records.

As I have often said. “Weird begets weird.” When things are weird, it may not be prudent to rely on prior statistical measures. It might be better to think about the structural economy and try to reason about what is going on.

As for me, I am tracking the leading cause of the weirdness — COVID-19, and trying to get a grasp on when the new cases will be minimal.

Things are going better than the politicians are saying. That is why the market has been rallying.

It may take 6-12 months for the economy to return to normal, assuming that the government does its job well with respect to its restrictions.

All that said, it will be volatile. After all,one thing that is utterly new is that the economy would be voluntarily shut down. There were better ways to do this, and there will be many arguments as the actions of governments are debated after this crisis.