Photo Credit: Jason Thibault also massivekontent.com/ ||Urban Wasteland
Before I write my piece this evening, I want to express and opinion that is unpopular to many of my friends. I think Trump lost fair and square. Since Trump is a greater liar than even Bill Clinton, he continues to protest, but with no significant data, only allegations.
Here’s my quick summary. In the four states that were the smallest wins for Biden (AZ, GA, PA & WI), the state Republican parties generally did not allege any major voting fraud. They may not have liked the concept of mail-in voting and/or increased absentee voting, and they might want to curtail those methods of voting, but given that those were the rules prior to the election, you can’t fight a case over the rules themselves. You have to show the rules led to specific cases of vote fraud — i.e., here is a case where:
- someone voted twice.
- a dead person voted.
- a person that doesn’t exist voted.
- and things like that.
After there is “proof of concept” then election officials can search more intently for fraud in the same area. As it is, the Republicans on the Wisconsin Elections commission had complaints, but eventually said, “There has been no credible evidence presented to the Elections Commission that any of these problems occurred in Wisconsin…” In Georgia, the Republican Secretary of State found similarly, despite considerable pressure from Trump. And in Arizona, the local GOP did not pursue any cases assiduously. The Pennsylvania GOP pursued a few cases, but even if they won, it would not have changed enough votes to flip the state.
Trump needed to win three of these four, and won none of them. As it is, why do I look at the state GOP efforts? State parties tend to be less partisan, but they are closer to the pulse of the local electorate. If there was genuine fraud, they would act. Something with less than factual data might lead some ideologues with their eyes on a US House seat to complain, but most would not, as they will have to live with the political consequences of being unreasonable in a tighter way than those who hold seats in the US House and Senate.
I am not a fan of Biden or Trump. I view them as being equal in term of my distaste for their characters and their policies. I voted for neither of them. That said, Trump’s actions are those of a demagogue and not a hero. He is willing to tear up things that are good for the body politic generally in order to profit his own interests.
One final aside. Watch the private lawsuits fly against Trump after he is no longer President. I don’t think any will file criminal charges against him for his time as President, but there is enough pent-up against Trump from 2016 and prior that he will have his hands full. (Also, the Trump Organization is weak, and will need to survive somehow.)
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In 1987, the city council in Davis, California was holding a meeting regarding an expansion of development in the growth-averse city of Davis. I decided to go to the meeting to express my opinions. I told the city council that:
- they were stealing the property rights of the landowner that wanted to sell to the developer, and
- they were creating a city where their children could not live, as land values were rising rapidly, and only well-off people could afford to live there.
As for me, I lived in the portion of Davis where the project would most negatively affect land values. As it was, the next day the main Davis newspaper (the Enterprise, otherwise known as the Empty-Prize) summarized my comments as “David Merkel spoke in favor of the Ramos project.” It wasn’t true, and I only learned about this when some of my co-workers at Pacific Standard Life pointed it out to me.
For my troubles, I got vandalized by a guy with a high-powered slingshot who broke my front window while my wife and I were sitting near the window. I chased him down the street, but he had too great of a lead.
So much for freedom of expression.
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There’s a greater reason why I write my tale of my opinion that I gave to the Davis city council. We are experiencing the same thing now with low interest rates. On net, we are discriminating against the young in favor of those who are older. We are denying most younger people the ability to be as well-off as the generation that preceded them.
The earnings and dividends yields that they invest at are lower than prior generations, and those that can use the low interest rates to borrow to buy homes are few. (Note: homes and autos are the only places where individuals get low lending rates.) And even for those that do borrow for homes, with inflated asset values, they run the risk of losing in another 2008-9 recession scenario.
The consistent policy of the US since the 1930s is to make life harder for successive generations. The unique and unusual growth post-WWII hid that, but declining growth is laying that bare now. Social Security was a very sweet deal then for old folks that has become a very sour deal now for young folks. Defined benefits plans are a thing of the past, replaced by modest encouragements to personal savings using defined contribution plans.
And now we see the same in monetary policy, where suppressed interest rates relatively favor those who are older. And, increased indebtedness slows future GDP growth.
To close, those who are young are disadvantaged on average versus those who are older. Relatively good times have passed, pushing up asset prices, leaving future earnings from assets to be light. Future returns will NOT be anywhere near those of the past, until interest rates and stock prices correct.
If you are young, you can make up for some of this by keeping expenses down, saving more, and if it fits your personality, starting an innovative business. Good ideas are always in short supply. Also, if you are able to invest in your own successful business, to some degree you can escape the box we are in now where future public investment returns will be low. Then you only have to deal with the risks of the business, and the regulatory challenges thereof.
PS — I’ve left out the fact that unskilled wages are capped by technology and stronger competition globally, and no, there’s little to be done about either of those except to compete harder and smarter. The Baby Boomers faced neither of those when they were young, leaving aside various inefficient unionized industries dealing in commoditized products. Suffice it to say that US Millennials have it harder than the Baby Boomers ever did.
I’ll just politely say that I find your comments to be very erroneous. If your truly willing to do the research instead of listening to the MSM you would discover the shocking truth about the intensive amount of fraud that went on and the doubtful validity of the election. Since you apparently have not done so…then as a result your going to be quite shocked at Trump’s overall victory and will probably pout for the next 4 years. Regardless of what happens, may many good things come your way.
Opposite. I did the research, looking at the comments of those who were close to the situation at the state elections. We live in an era of fideism, where people believe what they want to believe. I do not listen to the media. I analyze data, and if the state GOP agrees with the results, who are we to argue?
Speaking as a far-right, reactionary white nationalist, the “stolen election” narrative is just BS. It has nothing to do with the mainstream media, everything to do with known facts and basic common sense.
Trump was a god-awful president and simply lost, and he lost in precisely the way that was widely predicted in far-right / WN circles before the election – to wit, pandering to minorities during the whole campaign gave him a miniscule bump with these groups (which was nonetheless blasted across the media as some kind of cosmic phase shift) while costing him bigtime with the white working class that was the key to victory in 2016. On top of that, Trump’s moronic Covid antics fatally eroded his support among older voters.
My advice for you (and indeed the entire patriot right) is to pull your head from the sand and grapple with the realities of the situation. This kind of simpleton idiocy is why Middle America has been steadily offshored, euthanized, and demographically replaced for decades with basically zero complaint or struggle, let alone effective resistance.
James is right… and wrong. There are myriad examples of rampant fraud and unexplainable irregularities. Here is a summary of work done by some data scientists. https://bit.ly/2XhzIgG
Where James is wrong, though, is that Trump will not be victorious. Even otherwise reasonable and smart people are dismissive of these glaring irregularities. I cannot understand why people don’t care, but that’s where we are.
Falling back on ‘state GOP agrees’ argument is weak. What is their incentive structure and motivation? Is it to reveal the truth? No.
Lots of voter fraud in multiple states, but the tech companies are censoring all information that doesn’t conform to their liking. Stalin and Goebbels would be very jealous of FANGMA criminals
Greg – exactly right.
On the overall conclusion of the article: spot on. In the ’60’s the elderly were very likely to be under the poverty line. Now that has shifted to the younger generations. People born around 1990 have about 30% less wealth than their parents at the same age !
Also on Davis, CA- been there done that too. Your input was correct.
As far as the election, “facts” are very hard to come by. The Republicans are still mostly “never Trump”, so there wasn’t enough preparation and hard work done to get the evidence/facts on fraud in the election. That’s the cause of the controversy.
Writing to you from Netherlands: it is really destructive to any society if the older generations feed off younger ones. The same is also happening here, huge equity is cashed when houses are being sold to young families.
The usa has been eating their own seed for a while now, it will surely destroy your economy. People also have been losing their faith in democracy, especially with republicans. Beyond all claimed errors etc, the bigger picture is that 81M beats 74M.
“The consistent policy of the US since the 1930s is to make life harder for successive generations. The unique and unusual growth post-WWII hid that, but declining growth is laying that bare now”
I never encountered that thought before. Is it widespread? If true, what does this say about the policies of the left the last 90 years
Hello, I am a frequent reader but probably well outside of the normal demographic of this blog so I apologize if this is a silly question.
Why have you framed your argument as the “old” selling out the “young” and not the rich selling out the poor?
Don’t mean it as an inflammatory question, just curious about your thoughts.
Both arguments are correct. I am trained as an actuary, so I see the old versus young as a result of that. But capitalism in the US has increasing favored larger enterprises over smaller ones. That said, there has been cultural deterioration in the US, where many people have come to expect prosperity without significant effort. This is true of the rich and the poor, and those in-between. The effect of this is that you have some people who aren’t willing to make the effort to change when the path they have chosen becomes a dead end. Also, the public schools don’t help because they turn out many students with degrees that are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate. Can we expect such people to do well? Only if they get lucky.
David, my vote in this election mirrored yours. I voted for option “C”.
That said, I can’t decide how to feel about the results. I deeply believe MSM is dividing this country. I don’t know if Russia or China could have devised a better plan. Most news outlets have turned in to propaganda machines for their respective parties. Of course, this isn’t new (in my opinion). But, the histrionics that were projected over the last year have been disturbing – to say the least.
I can’t help but wonder how different the last 12 months would have been if there were a sitting Democrat up for re-election.
Trump lost, and in many ways I am glad. However, I sincerely believe MSM won. And, I am having a difficult time with that.
It’s not just the mainstream media, but also talk radio and social media. All of these things are picking away at the concept of truth, and pushing us toward fideism. Also, scientism is replacing science — the problem of replicability is showing up in many different disciplines, even ones as fundamental as math. Scientists are only as good as their honesty, and even results that are statically significant are only as good as the unbiased scientist, and the quality of his null hypothesis.
When politics becomes too important, we all lose.
One question
If anyone is in a position to “fix” elections – wouldn’t the President be in the most powerful position to influence that?