Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || I’m giving this another try

Dear Readers,

I know I don’t write as much as I used to. I typically write when I motivated by a given topic, and that’s just not coming as much to me now. But I still tweet on Twitter. I did sorted weekly tweets from 2012 to 2014, then I stopped tweeting as much for a while, and so discontinued them.

I can think of three good reasons to try this again:

1. Readers can see the most interesting articles that I have been reading, and can see some of my thoughts about them.
2. It may give me an idea for a blog post when I see them categorized.
3. In the past, some people have asked me to try this again

So, here is the first episode of this go-round of “Sorted Weekly Tweets.”

Credit Trends

• The worst year for equity bulls since 2008 will also be remembered as one when the predominant investment strategies veered from one another by the most in 21 years https://t.co/BWG0OaRZok  2022 key: “immunize yourself from interest-rate sensitivity.” 2023 key: reduce credit risk Dec 31, 2022
• Despite performance, corporate issues OneMain Financial to raise $460.5 million https://t.co/wszreQ7DXr  Though terms of the securitization offer more structural protection than prior, underlying asset quality looks poor. Credit deterioration on the low end. Dec 31, 2022
• Predictions for 2023: Car Prices Fall as Dealers Suffer https://t.co/glne5aK761  There are a lot of good charts and analysis here. Should be good deals on used cars around mid-year 2023, if you have cash… Dec 31, 2022
• Consumer ABS experts: Keep an eye on employment amid rate policy, inflation https://t.co/cCv1vsPkPP  Early signs of weakness on the low end of credit Dec 31, 2022
• Multiple stress points are emerging in credit markets after years of excess. With cheap money becoming a thing of the past, this may just be the start https://t.co/SqGbFUu5wR  Recently issued loans, with weak covenants, became the financing of choice for many weak companies Dec 28, 2022
• Still one place to get a good deal on an auto loan: Credit unions, which have been offering some of the lowest rates around, undercutting banks and other lenders https://t.co/kDiPkbSfPy  They don’t pay taxes; gives more flexibility. Can cut deposit interest if defaults spike Dec 28, 2022

Politics

• Trump’s tax returns released, launching fresh scrutiny of his finances https://t.co/q9B3s71DTG  If it becomes a question of fraud for assets Trump wrote down in the past to generate losses, his tax returns prior to the seven-year limit could be audited also, particularly 2009. Dec 30, 2022
• Brazil President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has selected a senator and former Petrobras official to lead the country’s state-controlled oil giant https://t.co/Bc9PRFoPDi  Sounds like a disaster that will come back to bite Lula. Another unforced error, like Europe & China Dec 30, 2022
• Weeks before the government approved a wind farm off Rhode Island, US scientists warned it could jeopardize the area’s iconic cod https://t.co/Ent7FU1qFK  Environmentalists arguing with environmentalists Dec 30, 2022
• 10 Ways Secure 2.0, Part of Spending Bill, Changes Retirement Planning https://t.co/45p2tW2xzT  Marginal ideas at best Dec 27, 2022
• Going Boldly: The Retirement Savings for Americans Act 2022 https://t.co/HkIDtzSrlq  This will do less good than most imagine. Many poor people need the money to live now. They will not use this. Dec 27, 2022
• Inside TurboTax’s 20-Year Fight to Stop Americans From Filing Their Taxes for Free https://t.co/Fa0tWhAzNA  & Intuit spends millions lobbying amid accusations of deceptive TurboTax advertising https://t.co/UZ378WSCa7  $INTU is annoying, especially paying annually for Quicken Dec 24, 2022
• Intuit collects as much as $1.6Bn in annual income from its TurboTax products, and ProPublica & OpenSecrets find that $INTU has spent >$10Mn lobbying Congress to keep the IRS from simplifying taxes (which would undercut the need to purchase TurboTax). https://t.co/iLHl9qJqk3  Dec 24, 2022
• The Sordid Saga of Hunter Biden’s Laptop https://t.co/VeY2ynEWSW  “The most invasive data breach imaginable is a political scandal Democrats can’t just wish away.” Very long, and sadly, we will likely hear a lot more about this. Dec 24, 2022
• The Surreal Case of a C.I.A. Hacker’s Revenge https://t.co/g6Z8kIovAN  This is indeed surreal, and quite long. Who watches over the watchers? Dec 24, 2022
• I golfed a full course of congressional districts in 84 strokes – 11 strokes over par! Tee off in @washingtonpost’s Gerrymander Invitational: https://t.co/pbmw1nZSvv  I live in MD’s 3rd district, likely the most gerrymandered in the country. It is hole 9, par 26 on this course Dec 24, 2022
• “Isn’t administrative complexity a problem for the government to solve, not a bunch of unelected do-gooders?” @AnnieLowrey writes: https://t.co/N8T8Q6OUIy  Cool idea. I am concerned that in dealing with the government, poor people are disadvantaged by legal & regulatory complexity Dec 24, 2022

Cryptocurrencies

• Opportunities Around GBTC – Valkyrie https://t.co/fkPmSuOPzR  Why should Grayscale voluntarily give up its profits? Dec 30, 2022
• Has Sam Bankman-Fried finally managed to make accounting class sexy? https://t.co/miOiI5y865  No, but he has shown its necessity. Also, the “run on the bank” at FTX would have happened even if CZ hadn’t taken action. That said, when will Binance have its run? Dec 30, 2022
• MicroStrategy shares hit the lowest since 2020 after the enterprise-software firm, the largest corporate buyer of Bitcoin, disclosed its first ever sale of the token https://t.co/XVVczgL629  $MSTR is just levered Bitcoin. Goes broke in 2025 as 2028 secured notes accelerate. Dec 30, 2022
• Criminal charges against a trader who swiped $100M from a DeFi platform show that even as crypto remains largely unregulated, it offers no shield against prosecution over alleged fraud https://t.co/gUtpv4I4fF  I think the plaintiffs have the better argument. Dec 30, 2022

Markets

• Cash holdings at U.S. state government pension funds dropped to the lowest level since the financial crisis https://t.co/xBk8rGpJhh  Many of these funds are desperate: looking for higher returns to bail out the underfunding, taking on risks they don’t grasp including illiquidity Dec 30, 2022
• Tech-heavy hedge funds had a banner year in 2020, but that was the last of the good times https://t.co/zXBkkzK66a  In general long-only management is less risky than hedge funds, and over a full market cycle provide better returns Dec 30, 2022
• After the worst year for global stocks in more than a decade, & a rout in bonds that’s unmatched this century, some investors aren’t going to take anything for granted in 2023 https://t.co/4i6ExvYesP  In the past, few took account of war, contagion, expropriation, sovereign crises Dec 28, 2022
• Home prices fell 0.5% in October compared with the previous month, as higher mortgage interest rates continue to weigh on home-buying demand https://t.co/cUEtw52Ppd  Leading indicator on inflation and growth Dec 28, 2022

Stocks

• Wall Street’s best and brightest got inflation all wrong this year, leaving them & their clients exposed to the full brunt of an epic market collapse. Now, they have to adjust to a new era https://t.co/7Y4AcgaLWd  Stock valuations are still top decile by the equity share model Dec 30, 2022
• US automobile industry; Final Sales of 2022 and Trends for 2023 https://t.co/p2THEFWRXZ  Of the top 10 new car sellers: 1) 9 had their stock price fall. Exception: Subaru. 2) 8 sold fewer cars than 2021. Exceptions: Tesla and GM. In general, I prefer owning auto part makers. Dec 30, 2022
• @MikePTraffic @retheauditors As a value investor, I could not see how Border’s would survive vs $AMZN. It was weakly capitalized, and had to carry a lot of inventory. I agree with your point about management loving their business, and understanding the economics thereof. There is no generic business. Dec 30, 2022
• Used Tesla prices are plummeting four times faster than other cars https://t.co/GEKnx91fIg  Calling Elon Musk! Time to focus on your main business! Dec 30, 2022
• VanEck is the latest asset manager to liquidate Russia ETFs nearly a year into Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/44trdYkzRf  Isn’t it: 1) Convert ADRs to local Russian shares 2) Deposit Russian shares with a Russian broker 3) Sell them on a Russian exchange? Dec 29, 2022
• 4) Convert rubles to dollars. 5) Wire dollars to the custodial account in the US. 6) Distribute pro-rata to shareholders https://t.co/De3NJTMy2y  Dec 30, 2022
• Silicon Valley staff rush to offload start-up shares as valuations plummet https://t.co/T6hxfFB1TV  Too much money chased too little profit in the past. Now liquidity is needed. Who will provide it, and at what price? Dec 29, 2022

Economics

• After a turbulent year, signs are emerging that wage inequality may be starting to reverse https://t.co/lTdjd4aOVi  Unlikely. Technology aids those who are intelligent, and doesn’t help those who aren’t. Dec 30, 2022
• David A. Shaywitz reviews “Escape From Model Land” by Erica Thompson https://t.co/522DtNmOMl  Send a copy to the Fed Dec 29, 2022
• We Aren’t Ready for a Financial Crisis https://t.co/u5to9iTDqY  We grew faster when we had less debt, public and private, and ran balanced budgets. Dec 24, 2022

Central Banking

• The central bank horror story https://t.co/HBpCjxDEWJ  May not be so bad. Swaps in aggregate net to zero, but there are winners & losers. If the losers run out of money while margining, the winners may lose as well. Dec 30, 2022
• The Bank of Japan announced a third day of unscheduled bond purchases as it fights back against speculation it’s moving toward ending its super-accommodative monetary policy https://t.co/TFZ322s70j  Rippling across global bond markets, creating lots of Yen deposit liabilities Dec 30, 2022
• The long Australian boom shielded the central bank. That’s changing, for the better https://t.co/IG9Yba411h  Just set up a currency board, and end your misery. Dec 30, 2022
• Global debt markets extended an end-of year selloff Wednesday, prompting additional bond purchases from the Bank of Japan https://t.co/9TEV4yBfWO  Say goodbye to negative yields. Hope we never go there again. Dec 29, 2022

China

• Rural residents worry for elderly as COVID rips across China https://t.co/m38cO0ORAO It would have been better if the CCP had given two months warning so people could get vaccinated prior to dropping the COVID zero policy. But the CCP couldn’t be thoughtful Dec 30, 2022
• China’s unprecedented assault on its housing market has left would-be home buyers asking if it was all worth it https://t.co/BJyH7vsZvf  The real estate situation in China is even worse than Japan’s in 1989. Crackup, or three lost decades? Dec 29, 2022
• A growing number of affluent Chinese are coming to Japan to live, in an indication of social and political tensions back home https://t.co/MHst0tbhLe  I find this fascinating given the past antipathy between Chinese & Japanese. Dec 28, 2022

Global

• Billionaire Adani Says India Will Add $1 Trillion to GDP Every 12-18 Months https://t.co/FAbMGwkyV5  Not likely. When this overindebted conglomerateur flames out it will be stunning. Dec 29, 2022
• Putin Wants Fealty, and He’s Found It in Africa https://t.co/rdCmko1vD7  The Central African Republic has always been among the most corrupt nations in the world. Should this be surprising? Dec 28, 2022
• In Record Numbers, Venezuelans Risk a Deadly Trek to the U.S. Border https://t.co/bgoGTQNV9a  This is dated, but I had not heard about this. You have to be pretty desperate to take on a trip like this. Thanks a lot, Chavez & Maduro, for ruining Venezuela. Dec 24, 2022

Science

• Unlike Covid shots, vaccines for cancer need to be customized for each individual, writes @lisamjarvis https://t.co/rDIed7BhJn Looks promising, but there is a long way to go. $MRK $MRNA FD: + $MRK for clients and me Dec 31, 2022
• Our investigation traces plastic recycling from US households to a city in India where the items are burnt for energy https://t.co/jdtBUxjxbr  I’m surprised that you would not expect this. People have to live. Global warming is just a theory. We need 100 years to make it a fact. Dec 28, 2022
• The deep freeze that blanketed most of the US temporarily plunged millions into darkness, and laid bare just how vulnerable the electric grid has become to a full-on catastrophe https://t.co/VYidNKPC8Q  I would not assume this won’t revert. Weather often has decadal streaks Dec 28, 2022
• These Prenatal Tests Are Usually Wrong When Warning of Rare Disorders https://t.co/kSGzVgjj8R  This is a practical example of how the misuse of statistics by scientists (ignoring false positives) harms patients. Aside from common diseases, it is better not to get your baby tested Dec 24, 2022

Odds & Ends

• Explaining the baby formula shortage. Mapping abortion access after the end of Roe v. Wade. Breaking down the FTX collapse. Here’s how we used data and graphics to tell 2022’s most important stories https://t.co/8I4bdgJzdB  Beautiful graphics on an artistic page that is clunky Dec 29, 2022
• As travel springs back and even China dismantles the last remaining Covid curbs, one stark truth is beginning to emerge — the world is running desperately short of planes https://t.co/rhJjRDk6Xx  I missed this. Thought the planes in the desert could be easily restarted, but no Dec 28, 2022
• You can fix most of your tech problems with these simple troubleshooting tricks from @nicnguyen https://t.co/nBpr4Cv02I  I knew about these, but it is very good and simple advice. Off and on. Disconnect and reconnect. Uninstall and reinstall. Clear Cache. Delete Cookies. Dec 28, 2022
• @TasteAtlas The last battle in the manga “Food Wars” was to make a dish that no one has ever seen before using elements of the five great cuisines of our world. What was their list of five? Chinese, Indian, French, Italian, and Turkish. A reasonable list. Dec 28, 2022
• Twitterati are looking for their next destination. https://t.co/MmUw4w4J9F  Then again, there may be some out from Twitter, but Twitter stays large enough to remain dominant over things that are trying to be like Twitter. Elon may bail on the investment, but Twitter will survive Dec 28, 2022
• How Telegram Became the Anti-Facebook https://t.co/6l5kFll3GO  Utterly long, but fascinating. There will always be demand for unfiltered social networks, and governments will fight that. Dec 24, 2022
• These three brothers scammed their investors out of $233Mn. Then they lived like kings https://t.co/W7J0nv3hmj  There is never anything easy about investing, especially if aiming for high returns. Safety can be controlled, mostly. Avoid people who advertise easy high returns Dec 24, 2022
• The Precarious Future of Sanibel Island https://t.co/XFmkZrwWWk  I went to beautiful Sanibel as a boy. Time & chance happen to all men and places. “Old Town” Ellicott City has been badly flooded twice in the last decade. Twice rebuilt, but the cost was high, & higher for Sanibel Dec 24, 2022
• @VIXandMore I get it. Hope you are doing well, Bill. I write less than I used to, but I am still writing. Dec 24, 2022