Companies

• Intel shares slid in late trading after the chipmaker gave a dire forecast for the current quarter https://t.co/hClfp9Y1C9  $INTC lost its way in the 2000s, and did not respond effectively to changes in new chip designs & uses. Most of my computers don’t have Intel chips. Jan 27, 2023
• The rate of returns at U.S. retailers more than doubled last year from 2019. What are the best ways for companies to deal with this flood? https://t.co/nTbNIGFKam  Well-written article. Makes perfect sense. Jan 27, 2023
• The legacy of Jack Welch lives on as forced rankings endure despite controversy https://t.co/KDR5e2EYxM  It’s true that putting constraints on surveys makes them more accurate on average, but the effect on culture is bad because it harms teamwork. Jan 27, 2023
• Elon Musk is upending the way that Twitter works. Ella Irwin is in charge of making his impulses a reality. https://t.co/9B2KrhbjNv  This will eventually result in lawsuits and laws limiting Twitter. Self-regulation is the best defense against external regulation Jan 27, 2023
• When you can’t speak to the manager — or anyone https://t.co/B23satO6kM  In the short-run it saves money not having a call center. In the long run you lose customer loyalty, and don’t get feedback on how to improve. Jan 26, 2023
• It takes an enormous amount of processing power to keep ChatGPT running https://t.co/tCtpfQ3aLh  So OpenAI stays near $MSFT — it minimizes their costs Jan 26, 2023
• Giving four months’ notice or paying to quit has workers at a health-care company feeling trapped https://t.co/mfYdvI5P8s  If training is specific to the company, it benefits the company, so the laborer does not benefit, and should repay. Opposite for general skills Jan 26, 2023
• Heard on the Street: Johnson & Johnson’s consumer business was the only division to deliver growth in the fourth quarter https://t.co/AjchC9YOkO  Surely they could have come up with a better name than Kenvue? Jan 25, 2023
• Crypto companies seeking to go public over the past year have faced increased scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission https://t.co/e5Bod8Y4jp  Highly speculative companies get more scrutiny. Jan 24, 2023
• Twitter is being sued for allegedly not paying the rent on its headquarters, adding to the legal battles between the social-media company and vendors since Elon Musk took over https://t.co/uAtdtLWBzT  Elon likes to see what he can get away with. You can’t cut your way to greatness Jan 24, 2023
• Allstate plans to tap the pool of recently fired tech workers to help the insurer overhaul its business https://t.co/Jtc6c76qx6  Most IT developers would find most insurers to be pretty stifling. In all the insurance firms I worked, only one division of one company got IT right. Jan 23, 2023

Market Structure Issues

• Meet the 11 ordinary twenty-somethings with $250 billion riding on their lives https://t.co/l69SlZqLwC  This is bizarre. Sometime between 2070 and 2110, this will have to be restructured $SPY Jan 27, 2023
• Heading into Tuesday, a NYSE employee failed to properly shut down a disaster-recovery system — leading to a disaster https://t.co/ZUFpA84Eag  If you always trade with limit orders, this wouldn’t be a big deal. Market orders are risky. Jan 26, 2023
• About 9% of outstanding US leveraged loans tied to Libor have no successor listed, but businesses may use extensions past the June 30 phaseout deadline https://t.co/Qr9PdTxJQp  Five months left on the grand experiment. Will SOFR be able to absorb the stress and hedging? Jan 26, 2023
• Wall Street firms that help issue ABS wouldn’t be able to bet against those products under a Securities and Exchange Commission plan https://t.co/kfi4j40i6Y  Sometimes dealers sell bonds to clients via shorting as a service to clients that wanted more. Is that disallowed? Jan 26, 2023
• Private companies desperate for cash as economic conditions sour are cutting confidential deals to avoid a dreaded down round https://t.co/cPbAL1K7GK  Kicking the can down the road, or, living to play for another day? Jan 25, 2023
• Josh Kushner is richer than Donald Trump after billionaires back his investment firm. https://t.co/38CuybHp7I  be careful of measuring wealth off of small financing rounds, or stocks with small floats. Jan 25, 2023
• Question of using term SOFR for ABS remains unresolved in 2023 https://t.co/hU1QhKLfVC  Lenders want predictability, even if there is some amount of basis risk — thus the desire for term rather than floating. This should get ironed out through futures markets. #LIBORwasbetter Jan 25, 2023
• A Depression-era backstop that Wall Street banks use for short-term funding is the latest corner of traditional finance to be ensnared by upheaval in the crypto industry https://t.co/IEnVkbTpoq  The Federal gov’t has too many entities that lend money, guarantee, etc. Jan 25, 2023
• A chaotic open for some stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange sent chills across Wall Street, leaving some investors frustrated and others clamoring for an explanation https://t.co/81wbDOjyrV  I had two stocks halted. No big deal. Wait a little, and markets were normal. Jan 24, 2023
• The last time hedge funds and asset managers were this split on the future for benchmark Treasuries was when the Fed’s tightening cycle was about to peak in late 2018 https://t.co/0R3k0DViL7  Usually the guys that are levered up lose Jan 23, 2023

India

• India’s integration into the global economy means the next big scandal may well be London or Singapore, rather than Mumbai, @andymukherjee70 writes https://t.co/iuLYhx1a8m  Much as the SEC has its weaknesses, isn’t the Securities and Exchange Board of India considerably worse? Jan 27, 2023
• Talk of cronyism misses the point. If Adani didn’t exist, the Indian government would have had to invent him in order to fulfill its development ambitions https://t.co/rxffQ1B6uW  Relying on “big men” to run businesses is dangerous to any economy. It’s one reason India stays poor Jan 27, 2023
• India’s Adani slammed by $48 bln stock rout, putting share sale at risk https://t.co/OvQLXRe2sz  Complex holding company structures with lots of debt are inherently fragile, dependent on liquidity being easily available. Jan 27, 2023
• “Largest Con in Corporate History?” Nate Anderson’s Hindenburg is betting on it as the firm targets Asia’s richest person Gautam Adani https://t.co/ss3SZwlpVC  Any complex company that compounds at too high of a rate for its industries is suspicious. Think of Enron. Jan 26, 2023
• India’s Adani Group explores legal action against US investor Hindenburg Research after its report accused firms owned by billionaire Gautam Adani of “brazen” market manipulation and accounting fraud https://t.co/FtdOdF9GhZ  Fighting short-sellers is often a sign of weakness Jan 26, 2023
• Adani Group’s shares fall after Hindenburg Research issued a report and said it had taken a short position in the company https://t.co/qT29MJsgZf  Conglomerate, price rise too rapid, lots of debt –> too much risk. Jan 26, 2023
• “India is on the cusp of huge change.” How soon can a country once synonymous with red tape become a $10 trillion economy? https://t.co/PlD05lJ2S9  This isn’t likely. India has deep cultural problems that hinder them from developing. India is an empire more than a nation. Jan 23, 2023
• From soap to paint, optimism for a harvest-led revival is laced with nervousness about urban spending https://t.co/0r1WHEABFN  Among other problems, “India’s software-exports industry — a large employer in metropolises — has become wary of hiring because of slowing global growth.” Jan 23, 2023

Portfolio Management

• Happy 30th birthday to the ETF* https://t.co/m1hGrVswFV  Nathan Most, the man who changed the structure of fund investing by creating $SPY. Jan 27, 2023
• The Buck Stops Here https://t.co/ukhvcQG0nt  Worth considering. The US has outperformed for a long time, and the US Dollar is weakening as the Fed decelerates Jan 26, 2023
• Vanguard’s 10-Year Equity Outlook https://t.co/SjTITqtoqg  All the non-US equity estimates are at least 3%/yr too high, commodities & non-US could be accurate. Jan 26, 2023
• ChatGPT was asked to create a market-beating ETF. Turns out AI has a long way to go https://t.co/kMJB59xPJc  ChatGPT is remarkably humble. Jan 26, 2023
• Adding to that, bond ladders are the all-weather strategy for handling all aspects of interest rate risk. https://t.co/7ggbuMnL0q  Jan 25, 2023
• Beware: even cash and bonds can land you in a fix https://t.co/tjEGYtnD1Z  A good introduction to the concept of reinvestment risk. In this environment, you get a higher yield by investing short, but when the bond matures, will you get a good yield to reinvest at? Jan 25, 2023
• This Changes Everything for Hedge Fund Managers https://t.co/Uj4vuyEKcl  ‘“The higher the cost of money, the lower the competition,” says Avenue Capital’s Marc Lasry on the risk-free rate.’ You have to be more selective as to who can afford the high interest rate Jan 25, 2023
• Why Invest in Stocks When Bond Yields Are Higher? by @awealthofcs https://t.co/DxUb55SwmD  Probably the only ones buying long bonds at the rates peak in 1981 were those that had to defease/hedge long liabilities. Everyone else was too scared. So life insurers, DB pensions… Jan 25, 2023
• The Bank of England warned that life insurers are taking an “optimistic” view of how easily they could ditch assets in tough times https://t.co/Wk4gHZp8Mr  Depends on how big the positions are relative to the market, & sadly, the article does not give that stat. Jan 23, 2023

Fraud

• $4 Billion Accounting Scandal Exposes Supplier Finance Risks https://t.co/TpXAL3MToM  Caldor returns! Jan 27, 2023
• Crypto Speculators Are Betting On Ethereum’s Shanghai Upgrade Risks https://t.co/LM0ndJEhyJ  Ask where the yield comes from. These strategies blew up in 2022, and will do so again in 2023-4. Jan 27, 2023
• What the poet, playboy and prophet of bubbles can still teach us https://t.co/qQu5XrPyGH  How Charles Mackay, author of “Extraordinary ­Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” described bubbles, but couldn’t see the biggest one of his time: railroad securities. Jan 26, 2023
• The Getty Family’s Trust Issues https://t.co/KkeXoSFnnn  Very long. I knew half of this, and it reinforces two of my beliefs: tax all income types equally, and abolish all tax deferral. Jan 25, 2023
• Digital-asset wallet linked to one of crypto’s biggest hacks has moved over $150 million of stolen funds to tap a trade involving a derivative of Ether https://t.co/2F69VAZahc  From crypto news today, remember that security is always weakest at endpoints, where transfers are made Jan 24, 2023
• Spyware that can turn even the most secure of phones into surveillance devices has become affordable enough that lawmakers are starting to do something about it https://t.co/yEy28x3oon  Is there really no way to scan for these zero click hacks? Jan 24, 2023
• Thinking of buying crypto on the dip? @LionelRALaurent suggests you take note of authorities’ accelerating crackdown https://t.co/2dX3L3FbB3  No social value to crypto, aside from ransoming yourself from authoritarian regimes Jan 23, 2023

Energy

• Scientists Are Turning Abandoned Mines Into Gravity Batteries https://t.co/PoAugP2e3Z  Physical batteries have a lot of advantages Jan 27, 2023
• Man-made graphite isn’t very green, so battery makers want the mined, natural mineral. The problem is there isn’t enough. https://t.co/7yQesrsNHf  “It’s the largest raw material in the battery.” Though not the most expensive… it can be synthesized if mines can’t produce enough Jan 25, 2023
• This giant underground battery is a $1-billion clean energy solution https://t.co/6Wg88Q7SqW  Compressed air drives a turbine when power is needed. Clean, right? No one would argue against this? Wrong. Jan 25, 2023
• Construction of wind and solar installations has slowed to a crawl in the US, despite billions of dollars in federal tax credits and investor enthusiasm for clean-energy projects https://t.co/yxrYY84yWR  When many want to do the same thing, bottlenecks appear & delay ensues Jan 24, 2023
• Nuclear reactors are being pushed to operate for more than double their intended lifespans. It’s a risky experiment with global consequences https://t.co/JtYhXZEWbB  Choices, choices — do the maintenance well. Schedule downtime. Jan 24, 2023
• An increasing number of wind turbine malfunctions are indicative of green power’s growing pains https://t.co/RJLwfqIW20  There is probably a limit to how large you can make turbines without smallish flaws cascading into large failures. Jan 23, 2023

CMBS / CRE

• Office Dominates New Transfers as CMBS Special Servicing Declines in December https://t.co/DyFCFkzQGO  One year ago, I bet the owners did not think rates would get this high. Jan 25, 2023
• Refinancing Tough as CMBS Maturities Pile Up in New York City https://t.co/EJrmmDrDEA  Facing the end, of extend, and pretend. Jan 25, 2023
• CMBS Realized Losses Increased in December https://t.co/ToWWYtZkPt  Interesting. Many of the losses took 5+ years to work out. The biggest loss took over 10 years, with 100% severity. Jan 25, 2023
• Expiring Interest Rate Caps to Fuel Distressed Property Sales https://t.co/jZyDmEP7Jx  Will your rents cover higher financing costs? Jan 25, 2023
• $9B plunge in NYC commercial real estate sets up brutal political fight over shrinking tax pie https://t.co/x27iLbUJqc  Not so many office buildings are needed as before Jan 25, 2023
• Surge In ODCE Fund Withdrawals Is Another Worrying Sign for Commercial Real Estate – https://t.co/VlYRaEtnvP  You will get money… just not as much as you would like, nor as quickly. Jan 25, 2023

Non-US

• Brazil and Argentina’s presidents have launched discussions on a common currency, but their plans are nothing like the euro, which replaced national currencies like the lira, franc and deutsche mark entirely https://t.co/O2LZY7UWXb  Much ado about nothing. Jan 26, 2023
• Countries with established auto industries have been blindsided by China, which is poised to become the world’s No. 2 car exporter https://t.co/HpomO1RNmH  China does not lack for labor. Odd to promote a capital-intensive industry Jan 26, 2023
• Zimbabwe’s leader seeks investment for a new capital just down the road from an impoverished and overcrowded Harare https://t.co/aGxTgu773Y  Better to focus on improving agriculture & infrastructure for public well-being. The Saudis may have money for folderol, Zimbabwe doesn’t Jan 26, 2023
• The UK faces a brutal reality: either taxes are raised, free NHS services are cut, other government departments are effectively scrapped — or the health service breaks https://t.co/k2vS4P6TK9  If you think healthcare is expensive now, wait until it is free Jan 24, 2023
• The on-off talks are back on again: Brazil and Argentina Are Discussing Whether to Combine Currencies https://t.co/XEDcxjHXGN  Would likely fail. Argentina can’t peg to anything given its lousy economic policies. A euro-like currency fails if much of the zone runs large deficits Jan 23, 2023

Personal Finance

• Only one in three Americans can comfortably cover a $400 emergency expense, according to new survey data https://t.co/EWpFVnxe4q  Make good choices when you are young, apply yourself to school and work, and don’t overspend. Jan 24, 2023
• Couples often grow more alike over time in their approach to spending, saving and risk, researchers say https://t.co/ag4MfeMC3b  Opposites can work if communication is good, or if one party lets the other do it. Otherwise it can be a disaster. Jan 24, 2023
• The trouble with ‘buy now, pay later’ https://t.co/ZnEhIhILnD  People forget the 1920s, where BNPL was common and it led many into bankruptcy. Those who ignore history are fated to repeat it. Jan 23, 2023
• Used car prices drop 12pc but bargains a long way off https://t.co/q0s8tZ9w6C  Yes, used car prices have fallen, but they are not cheap yet. Jan 23, 2023

US Economy

• Seven Signs That Economic Growth Is Starting to Falter https://t.co/UkiMH7p2Eo  Mostly employment, retail, and low-end consumer credit Jan 25, 2023
• Employers are shedding temporary workers at a fast rate, a sign that broader job losses could be on the horizon https://t.co/oBZIbci9tj  Labor markets may be weakening. Jan 24, 2023
• The pride of central bankers has taken a battering as inflation has soared. But they need to prioritize growth over restoring their dented credibility https://t.co/3pfEivyJTQ  The inverted yield curve is the markets telling the FOMC “your forecasts of inflation are wrong.” Jan 24, 2023

US Politics

• U.S. weapons industry isn’t prepared for a China conflict, a report says https://t.co/7no7A9cZqE  Will defense spending be a priority or not? What allies are you willing to give up on? Jan 25, 2023
• Democratic congressman Khanna says Biden administration might have to take unilateral action to head off US debt default https://t.co/MBz3DDAvWz  Gimmicks might affect acctg, but never the real economy. We need to stop running primary deficits & then all deficits to avoid crisis Jan 24, 2023
• The Biden administration’s analysis of the tax code by race is in. It shows White Americans disproportionately gaining from lower rates on capital gains and dividends https://t.co/wf5qjfddGr  This isn’t about race, but class. That said, tax all income equally. Jan 23, 2023

Odds & Ends

• The Duck Brigade Behind a Farmer’s Plentiful Rice Harvest @atlasobscura https://t.co/yV9IupsDg3  The ducks eat the weeds. At the end of the season, people eat rice and ducks. Jan 27, 2023
• “We are not out of drought in California, but this certainly makes a significant dent,” said Karla Nemeth, director of the California Department of Water Resources https://t.co/hWv12RqjE6  That there are far fewer farmers than before also makes a dent in water demand. Jan 27, 2023
• Transcript: What the Heck Is Going on With Egg Prices “Let’s crack open the story.” https://t.co/32vZBDCrQc  From the avian flu to feed costs to holiday demand Jan 25, 2023
• Getting a divorce in Japan is relatively simple. But it can sometimes result in single-parent custody, leaving one parent largely excluded from a child’s life https://t.co/p0efdka5eN  If you want to get sad, read this. Jan 24, 2023
• New Paper Says Crypto Is Just A Hot Ball of Momentum-Chasing Money https://t.co/1kD0RxVDH8  So are Ponzi schemes Jan 24, 2023
• Earth’s inner core may have reversed its rotation, potentially shortening the length of the day by a fraction of a millisecond over the course of a year https://t.co/UwtynNMmgk  Uncertain hypotheses Jan 24, 2023
• Steelmaking is a major source of planet-warming emissions. A group of British scientists have come up with a way to avoid them. https://t.co/fkR7F76rr2  Cheaper, too — could be interesting. How prevalent is perovskite? Jan 24, 2023

Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Running at the beach

Non-US

• New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s resignation highlights the complexity of post-Covid economic challenges https://t.co/wYjiYV0MLi  People got tired of an overly interventionist leader who did not listen. Jan 20, 2023
• Argentina’s plan to repurchase $1 billion of its deeply distressed dollar bonds has emerging-market investors scratching their heads https://t.co/hlu9qSfIrI  If you are going to do this, don’t announce it in advance. Just do it quietly. Jan 19, 2023
• Entrepreneurs Flee China’s Heavy Hand: ‘You Don’t Have to Stay There’ https://t.co/Ijh5EWbg9A  China faces a talent and capital drain. Once you experience freedom, no level of economic incentives will get you to return to Communist China. Jan 19, 2023
• India may have already surpassed China as the world’s most-populous nation https://t.co/pJiou6pys7  India’s culture would have to change a lot for it to have a fast-growing economy. Cultural change is difficult, so it is not likely Jan 19, 2023
• How Rich Are Gulf Countries? Region’s Wealth Funds Have $3 Trillion to Spend https://t.co/KNNvnYr0BT  Finding new ways to lose money Jan 18, 2023
• China’s population started shrinking in 2022 for the first time in six decades https://t.co/W3S9zvd3Aw  This is not news. Anyone paying attention knew this was coming 15 years ago. Jan 18, 2023
• The UK is poised to threaten social media bosses with prison if they break new safety rules. That’s sensible, says @parmy https://t.co/uMKTmduBFs  Not sensible. We don’t jail corporate leaders for tortious corporate actions. Instead, we fine the companies severely. Jan 18, 2023
• Russians became the top foreign buyers of real estate in Turkey last year, helping sustain the world’s hottest housing market by tripling purchases https://t.co/JHIAXw2uHe  Also happening in Georgia. Many Russians escaping Russia, and becoming significant in nearby nations. Jan 18, 2023
• Western banks struggle to exit Russia after Putin intervention https://t.co/C1tdCYaYzK  The wind-down strategy seems the most compelling Jan 17, 2023

Credit Issues

• The rapid meltdown of Americanas has left Brazilians with the prospect of losing a ubiquitous company known for its iconic red-and-white logo and holiday sales https://t.co/do9eD4mroq  Things like this don’t happen by accident. Management may have corrupted their accountants. Jan 20, 2023
• Property markets face a deepening debt crisis as the era of easy money ends, and the fallout is everybody’s problem https://t.co/fFKTSmtiqI  Stick to low leverage, quality and only “B” properties that are necessary… Jan 20, 2023
• US watchdog cracks down on private equity securitization vehicles https://t.co/rjSGcuzh7i  NAIC: 1) always late 2) underfunded 3) lacks smarts 4) states don’t listen to them 5) tries to grab control of credit questions, botches it, & gives it back to the rating agencies Jan 18, 2023
• Opinion: More rotting assets are lurking in the shadows of the financial system https://t.co/kn6eaxfGMq  Definitely opinion & biased. Many of the things stated here are wrong. That said, if defaults pile up from CLOs, let the entities funding them default, and don’t bail them out Jan 19, 2023
• Big banks might need to be broken up if they become too big to manage & are unable to fix significant regulatory lapses, a top federal banking regulator said Tuesday https://t.co/ThWQ1ujBId  Regulators most willing to break up the big banks likely have the least ability to do it Jan 18, 2023  

Portfolio Management

• Baillie Gifford admits ‘humbling year’ after $14bn loss on Tesla and Shopify https://t.co/2fA5cLEtwT  Evaluate using dollar-weighted returns, like the PE guys do. Jan 20, 2023
• Corporate fraud is widespread – and largely undetected, study says https://t.co/GEyfWRziKA  Cash flow conquers all. If things were that bad, you would see a lot more insolvencies. There is bending GAAP, and breaking GAAP. The former is common, the latter is not. Jan 20, 2023
• Questioning the Illiquidity Premium https://t.co/8Q7lbVMxij  Simply put, you shouldn’t buy an illiquid investment unless you will likely get a premium return versus similar illiquid investments. Realizing an illiquidity premium is never guaranteed Jan 17, 2023
• Investing When Your Time Horizon Is Short https://t.co/lmLOsMtFwv  If your assets need to spent in 3 years or less on average, don’t own stocks. Jan 17, 2023

Science

• Propulsion System Could Get Us From Earth to Neptune in 1 Year https://t.co/iIuEIL25yp  This isn’t likely. Transferring kinetic energy with extreme accuracy would be tough. Jan 20, 2023
• Companies are turning to microbes to alleviate fertilizer’s negative impact on the environment https://t.co/UIqd68kEf2  Milorganite has existed for years, Yara. But other technologies here could be game-changers. Jan 20, 2023
• A nuclear-powered copter on Saturn’s moon Titan. Blimps on Venus. Space engineers are planning innovative flying machines to explore far-away worlds. https://t.co/LWiEDPiztg  At least unmanned missions are cheap. Pity they won’t find any life out there aside from microbe stowaways Jan 19, 2023
• New research finds that global temperatures would be about 0.1°F higher, had it not been for an increase in atmospheric dust https://t.co/LQmqIbtmVv  Think of volcanoes. This isn’t news. Jan 19, 2023

Auto Finance

• Can You Use a Home Equity Loan to Buy a Car? https://t.co/hg91niTa5L  Could be a good idea if you pay it down quickly (<5 years), but not otherwise. Jan 19, 2023
• The steep plunge in used car prices – what it means, and what’s ahead https://t.co/cslWrGFhbQ  In general, the fall in prices is far greater the older and cheaper the cars are. Once new cars are being bought and sold in volume, recent used car prices may decline more rapidly. Jan 18, 2023
• Hangover Time for Used-Vehicle Dealers. For Buyers, Patience Will Pay Off | Wolf Street https://t.co/HP7R7jyREj  It’s likely that the prices of used autos will continue to fall. Jan 17, 2023
• How Auto Lenders Can Help the Growing Ranks of Troubled Borrowers https://t.co/GA7XI7VDmy  The low end is experiencing greater credit stress Jan 17, 2023

Politics

• It’s Time to Put a Brake on the Debt-Ceiling Charade https://t.co/XQ4RAnotdG  Switzerland has an expenditure cap that requires balanced budgets over time. It would be a lot better than what we have now. Jan 18, 2023
• A looming, high-profile fight in New York speaks to a widened interest in state judicial appointments since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade https://t.co/uwNJeEeHxz  New York, where liberals fight liberals. Jan 18, 2023
• Lawsuits across the U.S. are challenging policies aimed at getting homeless people off city streets https://t.co/mIFMoYyamI  I’ve known some homeless people over the years. The main common factor: lack of self-control, which is a skill that can be lost or developed. Jan 17, 2023

Private Equity

• Private equity’s slowdown in 3 charts https://t.co/GTXKsF1wDD  The situation is extended and ugly. What can we say? Watch for writedowns. Jan 20, 2023
• Inside The Secretive World Of Shark Tank Deals: Who The Real Winners Are https://t.co/tMyOhmeC4h  Interesting article. I’ve never been impressed with “Shark Tank”, because like all investing, acting quickly leads to ruin. This helps prove it. Jan 20, 2023

Crypto

• Binance Is Bleeding Assets, $12 Billion Gone In Less Than 60 Days https://t.co/rgdl1GniHM  Bye, bye, Binance Jan 20, 2023
• Genesis Global Capital is laying the groundwork for a bankruptcy filing as soon as this week https://t.co/0WuMU0SrE9  Which will likely lead to a Gemini bankruptcy… Twin bankruptcies, and it is only the beginning. Jan 18, 2023

Companies

• Meme stock Mullen risks drowning its investors by issuing a ton of shares, argues @chrismbryant https://t.co/Vvt5SYVoqG  This is a rational response to meme stock investors: stuff them full of stock. Jan 19, 2023
• Looming Twitter interest payment leaves Elon Musk with unpalatable options https://t.co/oJmCngeWjC  If Twitter is worth no more than $15B at best, then basically the banks will own it, unless Musk tries to fold it into $TSLA, or some recapitalization that spreads the pain Jan 17, 2023

Odds and Ends

• California Has a Gas-Price Mystery: Too High, But Why? https://t.co/FlrG5NHpsB  Low refining capacity, low number of gas stations per driver — blame California regulations. Jan 20, 2023
• Appliance makers are betting that internet-connected “smart” appliances will help transform their businesses and customer relationships—but not all consumers are plugging in https://t.co/z2p59IWD06  Better to buy simpler appliances, they break less, & fancy features are marginal Jan 20, 2023
• A major Hollywood producer just pulled back the curtain on how hard it is to make movies—and how the streaming model killed the independent film https://t.co/LkO6HxoEj3  In general, this is good. Edgy content is usually bad content. Jan 20, 2023
• Tech startup workers are grappling with what the market tumult means for their finances. https://t.co/gbBj7Y8ijd  It’s a big risk to give up a lot for the startup company you work for in order to have a chance at a big score. ~80% don’t succeed. Jan 19, 2023
• The Financial Accounting Standards Board is moving to permit companies to apply a certain accounting method to more tax-credit investments https://t.co/Kfdvz15ydT  This is an interesting corner of investing. The accounting issues matter less than risk-based capital issues Jan 19, 2023
• Fake meat companies promised to halt climate change, protect animals and make people healthier— while making billions. But they’ve turned out to be another food fad https://t.co/gYtcLlx7D8  It comes down to lower quality at a higher price Jan 19, 2023
• Something has been killing American young people in sharply rising numbers, but it’s not vaccines, @foxjust says https://t.co/d0WWDl5z5S  Large increases due to accidents, homicides, suicides, & C19 Jan 19, 2023
• Bob Prince, who helps manage the world’s largest hedge fund, says more people need to lose their jobs before inflation will be brought under control https://t.co/GH6YFITkMR  No, the Phillips curve does not exist in the presence of global trade. Don’t create a financial crisis Jan 18, 2023
• Food waste is a major contributor to climate change. This startup wants to reroute your kitchen scraps from the landfill back to the farm https://t.co/svDMWmZAaH  But why make them pay to do this? This is your cause. You should pay for it. Jan 18, 2023
• The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is weighing new restrictions on fees companies charge to wire money abroad https://t.co/998tjpQ24v  It’s fine if compensation is disclosed or undisclosed, just not both. https://t.co/HWWVFqqmCr  Jan 17, 2023
• Going electric is often prohibitively expensive for truck drivers operating at US ports. One California startup may have a solution https://t.co/sy5KNgEFql  All-in, a lot of the supposed environment advantages go away when applied to extremely heavy vehicles. Jan 17, 2023
• CES, the consumer electronics convention held in Las Vegas this month, felt a lot like the flashy auto shows of yesteryear, with a techy twist https://t.co/mMJPoHDJWj  Just be for real; flashy niche ideas that are costly will not pay off. Jan 17, 2023

Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Boldly flying in front of a stained glass window

Portfolio Management

• Sick of the ups and downs of the markets? Assets that don’t trade at all might sound tempting, but @jasonzweigwsj says beware of the pitfalls of private offerings https://t.co/AO2RWVMdVq  Don’t let the volatility of publicly traded assets scare you into buying opaque investments Jan 13, 2023
• Why investing will grow more difficult in 2023 https://t.co/nq173pzVFO  The VIX, and option volatility generally is over-followed, and there are options speculators than before, particularly with calls. 2023 is merely a sequel to 2022, already anticipating the FOMC stopping Jan 13, 2023
• Experts Spent Years ‘Angst-ing’ Over Value. In the End, the Answer Was in the Textbook. https://t.co/7gEByaPayA  Abundant liquidity from the Fed emboldened growth investors to bid prices to unsustainable valuations. Jan 11, 2023
• Barbarians Are at Grayscale’s Gates. Can They Take Over $GBTC? https://t.co/pKLMtrt4go  This situation may be hopeless, so learn from the broader principle: be careful before investing in anything where it is extra difficult to vote out management. Jan 10, 2023
• 3 Ways to Measure Management Integrity https://t.co/ft2IfzGblW  Integrity is important because if a management team is unethical toward stakeholders, in a tough situation, they will cheat shareholders as well Jan 10, 2023
• How often do you need to rebalance your portfolio? The answer may surprise you https://t.co/Q21GMn5zLj  Rewards for rebalancing have declined because risky asset classes have become more correlated over time, as diversification has become more broad Jan 10, 2023
• Brokers that offer traders the chance to buy less than a full share of a stock are set to face more scrutiny from a key industry watchdog https://t.co/NvfIUAnFyE  These are worthy of scrutiny, but the amounts involved are small potatoes, for the most part. Jan 10, 2023
• The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is making a $1Bn wager that small private equity firms can boost the pension giant’s returns and clout https://t.co/NGKkU6tnmD  CALPERS has a knack for being late… adding money to two small private equity shops now? #pe_glut Jan 10, 2023
• Monte Carlo Failures Aren’t Plane Crashes https://t.co/AenaX40s1k  Attempts to distinguish between meeting needs and wants. Does not take into account, as far as I can see: quasi-MC, return assumptions, variances, correlation, mean-reversion, momentum, extreme events, etc. Jan 09, 2023
• Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2022 Update https://t.co/EwIuzWnCDL  My but future returns are limited. 3.2%/year over the next 10 years. Does that sound attractive? Jan 08, 2023
• A look back at the wildest financial predictions from the everything bubble https://t.co/oOIPcQ7Se4  Impossible to have an “everything bubble.” That said, stocks, housing, and crypto are still overvalued. Jan 08, 2023

Culture

• US birth rates are at record lows – even though the number of kids most Americans say they want has held steady https://t.co/Nz026ECbUX  There is no mystery here. If you don’t have children while young, odds decrease that you will have children, and a higher number of them. Jan 14, 2023
• The Half-Madness of Prince Harry by @peggynoonannyc https://t.co/l34TqzQmK9  Seems like a PR “scorched earth policy.” Why should we care about the English monarchy, including Harry? Is he trying to destroy something because he cannot have it himself? #envy Jan 13, 2023
• The new conservative Israeli government means Jewish activists have more support for praying at the Temple Mount. https://t.co/Cbxx8xqrNq  Playing with dynamite Jan 12, 2023
• Why Italians have become the most common foreign nationality in London https://t.co/SCsAskWoS2  Culture matters. There is more opportunity in London than much of Italy Jan 10, 2023
• Xi Jinping’s plan to reset China’s economy and win back friends https://t.co/ezTQgj9u62  It’s rare to see someone have severe opinions “spin on a dime.” These efforts are meant to end the protests and regain some Western support. Xi will revert when he finds it advantageous Jan 10, 2023
• The Engineers Are Bloggers Now https://t.co/j9DU5Ot69p  Anytime you can get good writers in STEM fields to break down the complexity, it is a treat. Management appreciates those who can take a tough subject and explain it to them. Jan 10, 2023
• CFP? CSLP? There is an alphabet soup of financial-adviser credentials https://t.co/reycid43Lm  Credentialing is overdone. The only ones who directly benefit are those who create the credentials. This will eventually fade, aside from credentials that are genuinely hard to obtain Jan 09, 2023
• Is it time to kill calculus? https://t.co/7vmGjNozdI  Maybe, and it might be good to replace geometry with analytic geometry, but adding data science and probability will leave most STEM majors underprepared for college math. Jan 08, 2023
• Also, the article is wrong when it states that current math pedagogy favors boys over girls. It is the opposite, except in the top decile. This proposal would not make things better; it would create new problems. Math pedagogy peaked in the 1950s and has gone down since https://t.co/qxQl3tnt2z  Jan 08, 2023

Companies

• Bed Bath & Beyond continued to surge on Thursday after the company’s bankruptcy warning reignited interest from retail traders https://t.co/EeW4tHeUdT  Time for a secondary offering of $BBBY stock, or quietly do a PIPE. Or a rights offering w/some warrants, or a junior convertible Jan 12, 2023
• With $200 billion already squandered and Tesla in sharp decline, it’s possible Elon Musk will never be the world’s richest person again https://t.co/VPqvOEMAOk  Could Elon Musk lose all of his $TSLA stock? Dubious, but losing almost all of it is quite possible. Jan 11, 2023
• A swing and a miss https://t.co/Iva3XAYNIT  A commercial real estate pro comments on Univ. CA’s recent transaction In BREIT. His conclusion: even with the discount, they would have gotten a better deal in the public REIT markets Jan 10, 2023
• Pizza Robot Company Stellar Draws Engineers From SpaceX https://t.co/ZcxP4vAI08  If it can get the cost of a pizza down with reasonable quality, this could be interesting on a mass market basis. Jan 10, 2023
• Ukrainians accounted for 45% of all the new foreign companies that set up shop in Poland last year, according to a report https://t.co/lhFlsqYkJn  Will be interesting to see how Polish/Ukrainian relations evolve. Jan 10, 2023
• Warren Buffett’s excellent Japanese adventure will probably keep pumping out profits even as oil and gas prices slip from their highs, writes @JavierBlas https://t.co/wZrceogkZY  Another small win for Buffett Jan 09, 2023
• The US Supreme Court turned away four appeals by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders who wanted compensation after the Treasury collected more than $100Bn in profit from the GSEs https://t.co/Uud0coWGJO  The common stock should have been canceled after the bailout Jan 09, 2023

Central Banking

• Transcript: Why Banks Are Suddenly Borrowing From the Fed’s Discount Window https://t.co/3YUSj4Jnhv  Long, but valuable if you want to learn how the Fed’s discount windows, and other liquidity facilities work Jan 13, 2023
• Peru extended its biggest-ever phase of monetary tightening Thursday to curb a spike in inflation that is aggravated by anti-government protests https://t.co/gwJ82CTznj  When no foreigners have to buy your debt, in order to aid exporters, inflation can get out of control quickly Jan 13, 2023
• The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate on Friday in what could be the final act of its 18-month tightening cycle https://t.co/5K5LrbIsK1  Yield curve inverted, seemingly stopping. Jan 13, 2023
• More investors are putting greater focus on services inflation and labor-market data as they try to grasp a more complex inflation picture https://t.co/6UsJ8f4SY6  Leaving out anything skews the inflation picture. But ignore the Phillips curve. Wages have low impact on prices Jan 11, 2023
• Jerome Powell said the FOMC is strongly committed to lowering inflation even though interest-rate increases could fuel political blowback https://t.co/BaPhhEtJM7  FOMC drives through the rearview mirror. Should use forward looking indicators even if at odds w/present conditions Jan 10, 2023
• The Fed is not a ‘climate-policy maker,’ Powell says https://t.co/fHymyqQHI0  Well said, stick to your statutory mandates — if you can actually achieve them (Tsst… the Phillips Curve was a post-WWII statutory anomaly. It does not exist when there is global trade) Jan 10, 2023

Auto Lending

• Used-vehicle volume hits lowest mark in nearly a decade https://t.co/Jwi4SzmNaq  Delinquencies are rising, & as there are more new cars, there will be more trade-ins. Used car prices should continue to fall. Then expectations effect as dealers pay less for trade-ins as lots fill Jan 14, 2023
• Inventory crisis dragged auto sales to a decade low in 2022 https://t.co/Kq8MJthZNm  Oversupply of used cars coming as many trade in for new cars Jan 13, 2023
• Growing new car supplies means used car prices are starting to drop https://t.co/6VEB0oOfkF  And the prices will likely fall further, as interest rates are higher, and credit is tighter. Jan 12, 2023
• Used car prices post biggest drop ever as new luxury car sales boom https://t.co/STXfvk1Emx  Conspicuous consumption among the wealthy Jan 11, 2023
• It’s Not Just a Car-Loan Crisis https://t.co/t6W4ZDo923  The author is partially right, in that many mortgages and car loans are now inverted as asset prices fall, as the FOMC has raised rates. But car loans are shorter, which makes inversion more severe. Defaults will be greater Jan 11, 2023
• Why worries over subprime auto bonds might be only getting started https://t.co/foKwjdA7Og  More reasons why overprovision of credit in auto finance will either led to 1) more defaults, or, 2) reduction in loan options if $CACC has to pull back –> falling used car prices Jan 08, 2023

Crypto

• Sam Bankman-Fried should be treated as innocent until proven guilty, Ackman says https://t.co/ASTbvVsyy7  A worthy thought. Spitzer won when he got people to compromise. Remember that the grand majority of cases that went to trial were won by the defendants vs Spitzer in the 2000s Jan 13, 2023
• Samsung Asset Management indicated the firm could consider starting a spot Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong if the city allows such products https://t.co/xaiqRnevBB  Enabling people to lose more money while leveraged, and perhaps unleveraged. Jan 13, 2023
• Mike Novogratz sounds off on Sam Bankman-Fried and Barry Silbert: “The toxic masculine side of me would like to punch them both in the jaw.” https://t.co/z21VhMAhBj  A crazy dreamer — all crypto is a Ponzi at some level. Jan 12, 2023
• FTX advisers have found more than $5 billion in cash or crypto assets that it may be able to sell to help repay creditors, a lawyer for the company said https://t.co/M5UiEHUhnn  Like Madoff, claimants won’t get nothing, but they won’t get paid in full. Jan 11, 2023
• Coinbase Crypto Exchange to Cut Nearly 1,000 Jobs https://t.co/uFKd747eM0  If you are laying off people, you are likely not a growth company. With $COIN estimate cash burn rate vs cash available to the holding company Jan 10, 2023

Credit Issues

• A deal frenzy that included Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover has left Wall Street banks struggling to revive the lucrative business of backing big mergers https://t.co/X9QhKAolI8  Take your losses & be done. The bear phase of the credit cycle lasts well into the FOMC’s loosening cycle Jan 13, 2023
• To many young consumers, zero-interest layaway plans such as Afterpay mean free money, and the idea of paying down daily indulgences doesn’t faze them. A report on the problem with Gen Z’s love of “buy now, pay later” programs https://t.co/JLg75QPM3q  Credit losses emerging Jan 12, 2023
• Japanese Internet Firm Rakuten Selling $200 Million Bond https://t.co/VjsYLTR3Cz  Interesting that some junk credits are also bringing deals. Jan 10, 2023
• Europe’s Bond Sales Top $130 Billion in Record Time https://t.co/aYljLxYqkr  Interesting to see this level of borrowing… also the $20B Saudi Arabia deal. Many Non-US entities borrowing long in USD Jan 10, 2023

Rain in California

• Beach towns such as Capitola, where a wharf was torn in half, have borne much of the brunt from California’s recent series of torrential rainstorms https://t.co/ejqXBkHZbA  If you build on the coast of the ocean, or next to a large river, you are asking for trouble. Jan 13, 2023
• EXPLAINER: Storms put California levees to the test https://t.co/fjndwqBvbI  I used to live in Davis, CA. The levee systems of California are crucial for avoiding flooding. But responsibility for the levee is dispersed in public and private hands. Complex and underfunded Jan 10, 2023
• California faces more drenching rain, as concerns about drought have been replaced by fears of flooding that’s killed at least 14 people https://t.co/A2ZqSxJlBg  Excellent news for farmers and skiers. No drought in 2023. Can we get this for the Mississippi river basin? Jan 10, 2023

Science

• Why Not Mars https://t.co/cYPeEfG5Ta  I don’t favor going to Mars, unless it is done with private money. And if we go there we should ignore the international treaty requiring that we don’t contaminate Mars with Earth organisms. Impossible to avoid. Jan 14, 2023
• A climate startup removes carbon from open air in a first for the industry, potentially launching an industry to address climate change https://t.co/NDpLZUTJIv  Looks like a promising technology, if CO2 is indeed a pollutant. Jan 13, 2023
• Why ChatGPT may be the most human form of A.I. yet: It produces informed BS https://t.co/wyzVlZoSrz  I’ve been playing around with the chat utility at https://t.co/ATiFIuhEjl.  It’s not always right, but if you point it to the right resources, it learns. Jan 13, 2023

Food

• Alchemist: Is this the world’s most creative restaurant? https://t.co/suamcigX9z  Odd, not creative, I will pass on this even if one like it is nearby. Jan 14, 2023
• This new, eco-friendly ‘sugar’ has half the calories of cane sugar: ‘A world-changing ingredient’ https://t.co/DYZgg5PiVe With so many people skeptical about additives, drugs, vaccines, why is there quick adoption of new ‘sugars?’ Jan 14, 2023
• A US government agency will move to regulate gas stoves as new research links them to childhood asthma. “This is a hidden hazard,” said an official https://t.co/limmfmgZSj  If this were true, we would have known it long before. Gas offers much better control in cooking. Jan 09, 2023

Energy

• The Edge of Productivity https://t.co/VZE0RrV3nz  Interesting article on energy use trends, but way too bullish on the impact of AI for productivity. Jan 14, 2023
• The US is backing a Nevada lithium project in an effort to create its own supply chain of the metal. https://t.co/p1w4J57hdT  If it’s that good of an idea, why do you need public financing? National security? Jan 13, 2023

Odds & Ends

• A case before the Supreme Court challenging the liability shield protecting websites such as YouTube and Facebook could “upend the internet,” Google said in a court filing https://t.co/xyLPZIveIL  The internet would survive, but profitability of social media would decline. Jan 13, 2023
• “It would be great if the companies would switch away from email and start using other services,” one executive said, “but people don’t change.” https://t.co/w0q4gGOsuU  Don’t trust email. Skepticism is warranted w/those you don’t know, & those you do know when it looks weird Jan 13, 2023
• The West Coast, for the past decade a leader in the housing boom, is stumbling, while eastern and southern cities are holding up better https://t.co/CHQluSWy2F  Places where the boom was no so large, or where there have been many migrating to the area. Jan 13, 2023
• Private jet business booms despite commercial airline revival https://t.co/HG8PosSnZ4  ‘“Inflation never affected the 1 per cent,” said Kevin Singh, president of Icarus Jet, a private jet broker.’ Convenience, flexibility, and not having to go through security are the keys. Jan 10, 2023
• President Biden asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to stay in her post, and she agreed, a White House official said https://t.co/GnR4FrlRAl  This should not be news Jan 10, 2023
• Unmarried Women No Longer Pay a Financial Penalty in Retirement https://t.co/caAhCPHrN8  Accurate title would be: Middle Income Women Do Badly in Retirement, Married or Not Jan 10, 2023
• Brazilian police clashed with supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro in the capital of Brasilia on Sunday https://t.co/zLbWuoW9IP  There was no possibility that they could overthrow Lula. Jan 09, 2023

Picture Credit: Aleph Blog || I know this is late, but still, here it is…

At September 30th, 2022, the S&P 500 was priced to return 4.14%/year over the next ten years. Given the rally since then, that return has shrunk to 3.20%/year. Does that sound attractive? It is lower than the yield on the 10-year T-note, and lower than current inflation (which is falling like a stone, don’t tell the geniuses at the FOMC).

And you could be adventurous, as I was when I was a corporate bond manager (2001-2003) buying long single-A and BBB/Baa bonds. Even at 10 year maturities, you can get well over 5% for sound credits.

The stock market needs to fall around 20% to be at parity with lower-rated investment grade bonds. This is not pleasant news, but given the media drumbeat of:

Stocks always beat bonds! Stocks always beat bonds! Stocks always beat bonds! Stocks always beat bonds! Stocks always beat bonds!

It needs to be said that it is not always true. It wasn’t true in the 2000s decade. It wasn’t true in the Great Depression.

I’m keeping this short this evening. The US corporate bond market is still more attractive than the US stock market. If the S&P 500 drops below 3100, with no changes in interest rates, then the stock market will be a better buy.

So be ready for the stock market to fall further after the Fed stops tightening, when the recession ensues, and buy stocks amid the panic.

PS — when the tech giants are firing people, that is a sign that they are no longer growth stocks.

Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Even logos need a vacation every now and then

Investing

• Hedge funds gave Discord, Stripe, SpaceX and other startups billions. A Bloomberg News analysis shows what they may be worth https://t.co/vBOZSoqyIJ  Far better to write them down, so as to keep an air of honesty. Jan 07, 2023
• Berkshire Hathaway Could Face a Big Tax Hit if the Bull Market Resumes https://t.co/TIZsdztH9T  This is a proposal that I support: tax the change in unrealized capital gains. In the first year, tax unrealized capital gains. For private equity, an EBITDA tax Jan 07, 2023
• ARK’s Cathie Wood Isn’t Backing Down. She Explains Exactly Why. https://t.co/7hsvVaV8Ea  An amateur who got lucky for a while, who throws money at companies that generally can’t produce positive free cash flow to reward shareholders. Jan 07, 2023
• How private markets became an escape from reality https://t.co/ouOZMxC7JT  ‘Investor Cliff Asness wrote recently of the “mind blowing” possibility that investors now knowingly accept lower returns “for the privilege of not being told the prices”.’ Jan 07, 2023
• Silicon Valley staff rush to offload start-up shares as valuations plummet https://t.co/T6hxfFBzJt  Watch for more deals where a big investor buys in at the last round price, but with additional goodies atached. Jan 07, 2023
• The Fed needs to jack rates up by 10% right now https://t.co/DbWnztkWNw  “But we’re sure that the good folk at Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia and Founders Fund have done exhaustive due diligence and been disciplined in their capital allocation.” Jan 07, 2023
• A tried-and-true investing strategy just turned in one of its worst years ever. But is the strategy dead? Not even close, says @jasonzweigwsj. https://t.co/jWP36ra4DM  80/20 is best for the long haul. 60/40 does about as well as 100/0 but with less volatility Jan 06, 2023
• If you receive a windfall, should you pay down debt or save for the future? https://t.co/X82JnL6Wp8  It may be a good idea if you have a long time horizon. Valuations are *still* not cheap yet. There is more downside likely after the FOMC stops raising rates. Jan 05, 2023

Politics

• Kevin McCarthy’s torturous bid for House speaker exemplifies the dysfunctional state of the Republican Party heading into the 2024 presidential race https://t.co/X3BIIk5cRq  Be bold. Want centrist politics? Ban political parties and primaries. Jan 07, 2023
• South Carolina’s congressional maps will be redrawn after a federal court ruled that the House district lines intentionally split Black neighborhoods https://t.co/iePGQNglOT  District boundaries should be chosen to minimize the length of internal boundaries Jan 06, 2023
• Why can’t Kevin McCarthy get the votes he needs, and what happens until the standoff is resolved? Here are answers https://t.co/eExsSCCvpZ  Well, who knows? Maybe nothing gets done by Congress, and the government shuts down. The Russians invade Alaska, & the Chinese take Taiwan Jan 05, 2023
• Representatives Matt Gaetz and Andy Harris, and even a freshman GOP House member, stand to gain from their votes for Kevin McCarthy for speaker https://t.co/QXtkZIUXJD  Somewhat piggish here, problem of a small majority… perhaps the “Freedom Caucus” could do a deal with the Dems Jan 04, 2023
• Directors who often have little financial expertise are looking after the retirement funds of US public servants. They’re proving to be no match for a system that’s exploded in size and complexity https://t.co/vXZiUcPc33  We do our best to keep investment expertise off the boards. Jan 04, 2023
• I applied to serve on the Maryland & Howard County Pension Boards as a citizen representative. I am more than a generalist investor; I am an investment actuary. I understand it all. Of course they didn’t choose me. Politics. https://t.co/9FP9JeS9vp  Jan 04, 2023

Science

• The phenomenon behind California’s double-whammy drought and storms has a name: “hydroclimate whiplash” https://t.co/Z8yUafaHwu  Climate change is getting stretched pretty thin to explain every unusual bit of weather. Jan 08, 2023
• US Army’s Flow Battery Could Change Military Power https://t.co/malEss9iyc  If this actually works, it would be significant for intermittent power sources Jan 07, 2023
• Improved Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Are On The Way https://t.co/gkKCcEKDIt  Still has to be developed to scale, but this could be promising Jan 07, 2023
• San Francisco is in the path of one of the worst rainstorms yet in a season that has likely left behind $1 billion in damages and losses across California https://t.co/GSDxXdfpTe  At least this will good for the farmers Jan 07, 2023
• Meet Tree Energy Solutions, a green-hydrogen startup looking to provide low-emission fuels to European companies amid the energy crisis https://t.co/8JCKHUqBe3  This does not make sense. Most projects in this vein are trying to turn NG into hydrogen. Jan 04, 2023
• Is my study useless? Why researchers need methodological review boards https://t.co/nDKAEgFS2s  It would also help if they reviewed the data & statistical analysis in advance, so that it will be “set in stone” and not arbitrarily modified to get a “significant” result Jan 03, 2023

Companies

• How Amazon grew an awkward side project into AWS, a behemoth that’s now 4 times bigger than its original shopping business https://t.co/eAg7FtrYkh  Long read, worth it. How an internal project to standardize $AMZN programming became a business for others needing computer services Jan 07, 2023
• Why Banks Are Losing the War Against Fintechs https://t.co/6NUII7cwNH  This article is really about cultural differences between bankers and programmers. It would pay the banks to teach programmers about banking, then listen to their suggestions once they have learned Jan 05, 2023
• Southwest’s Biggest Mistake Was Forgetting Its Own Culture https://t.co/6yHLAXawM6  This was coming for a while. On a $LUV flight over a year ago, the crew was openly complaining about the long hours and unpredictability of scheduling. Jan 04, 2023
• About that $4bn BREIT deal https://t.co/KoBvPE6FCj  You have an opportunity to exit the troubled BREIT. Take the exit, and feed the losses to $BX, the University of CA, and those who are too slow to act. Jan 04, 2023
• Bank regulators say holding cryptocurrencies is likely inconsistent with safe banking practices https://t.co/lt7wvzuZwv  “Regulators say holding cryptocurrencies is likely inconsistent with safe banking practices.” Keep the two systems separate. Same way we don’t allow FX mismatch Jan 04, 2023

Economics

• What makes the least sense in Chinese economic policy is trying to maintain residential real estate prices at such high levels, virtually requiring huge amounts of debt to support the prices. Housing is important, but it can’t truly be 70% of the assets of the nation. #3redlines Jan 07, 2023
• The Fed needs to stop raising rates https://t.co/eFgO1Oc1ti  I used to accuse Bill Gross of “talking his book” when he was at PIMCO, but in this case, I think he hit the nail on the head. Jan 04, 2023
• Japan’s new benchmark 10-year note brings a fresh headache for the nation’s central bank in its battle against bond bears https://t.co/GtnWVv45eF  Japan risks a situation where something may break. Better to let the 10-yr float. Jan 06, 2023

Financing

• Wall Street wants capital rules eased to unblock $22tn Treasury market https://t.co/VyNaOGhrr7  This could make sense. Treasuries and cash reserves hit the supplemental leverage ratios disproportionate to their actual riskiness Jan 07, 2023
• The deal was unusual because of its timing and purpose. Most banks and borrowers were holding off on bringing new deals after a rocky year https://t.co/lYIn3LYbPU  Dividend deals are usually bad investments. Do they think the credit bear cycle is over? Jan 06, 2023
• “There’s a durable arbitrage built into AAA CLOs. There’s a regulatory arbitrage,” said Sycamore Tree’s Okada. “You’re floating rate, you’re AAA. I’m pounding the table on that trade.” https://t.co/Bpp20OM083  And that will work until it doesn’t Jan 06, 2023

Odds & Ends

• If you’re looking to earn some extra income, these are the most profitable side hustles https://t.co/A3VDHLIjVu  Useful article Jan 07, 2023
• Extra pharmacy certification requirements put an unnecessary stigma on abortion medication https://t.co/hPZ4FkO6Tx  Yes, “safe” medicine that kills an unborn child Jan 06, 2023
• Walgreens plans to seek certification to dispense pills that can induce an abortion, part of a new program through the US FDA to broaden access to the medication https://t.co/VnIunu2BfK  I will be selling my CVS shares. FD: + $CVS Jan 06, 2023
• The Patriarch Behind Vladimir Putin by @tunkuv https://t.co/hltSakx8fR  This is believable, given the long-term fractious relationship between the Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Churches. But both are empty ritualism. Jan 04, 2023
• Pope Francis has been the leader of the Catholic Church for almost 10 years, but he has only been the sole pope in the Vatican since Saturday https://t.co/TxW06Raa9c  Bergoglio is a relativist, similar to a liberal protestant with few absolutes Jan 04, 2023
• The moves partly stem from a growing consensus among many who work in education that disruptive behavior often reflects underlying mental-health issues such as anxiety, depression and trauma https://t.co/KRbLENCvxW  In-school suspension is effective. So is expulsion. Jan 04, 2023
• Sam Bankman-Fried has said Alameda prospered until it was tripped up in a crypto crash. Its troubles were much deeper than that. https://t.co/7JrH5fxqnH  Hindsight is 20-20, even for things with a lot of red flags. Jan 04, 2023