Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Even logos need a vacation every now and then

Investing

• Hedge funds gave Discord, Stripe, SpaceX and other startups billions. A Bloomberg News analysis shows what they may be worth https://t.co/vBOZSoqyIJ  Far better to write them down, so as to keep an air of honesty. Jan 07, 2023
• Berkshire Hathaway Could Face a Big Tax Hit if the Bull Market Resumes https://t.co/TIZsdztH9T  This is a proposal that I support: tax the change in unrealized capital gains. In the first year, tax unrealized capital gains. For private equity, an EBITDA tax Jan 07, 2023
• ARK’s Cathie Wood Isn’t Backing Down. She Explains Exactly Why. https://t.co/7hsvVaV8Ea  An amateur who got lucky for a while, who throws money at companies that generally can’t produce positive free cash flow to reward shareholders. Jan 07, 2023
• How private markets became an escape from reality https://t.co/ouOZMxC7JT  ‘Investor Cliff Asness wrote recently of the “mind blowing” possibility that investors now knowingly accept lower returns “for the privilege of not being told the prices”.’ Jan 07, 2023
• Silicon Valley staff rush to offload start-up shares as valuations plummet https://t.co/T6hxfFBzJt  Watch for more deals where a big investor buys in at the last round price, but with additional goodies atached. Jan 07, 2023
• The Fed needs to jack rates up by 10% right now https://t.co/DbWnztkWNw  “But we’re sure that the good folk at Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia and Founders Fund have done exhaustive due diligence and been disciplined in their capital allocation.” Jan 07, 2023
• A tried-and-true investing strategy just turned in one of its worst years ever. But is the strategy dead? Not even close, says @jasonzweigwsj. https://t.co/jWP36ra4DM  80/20 is best for the long haul. 60/40 does about as well as 100/0 but with less volatility Jan 06, 2023
• If you receive a windfall, should you pay down debt or save for the future? https://t.co/X82JnL6Wp8  It may be a good idea if you have a long time horizon. Valuations are *still* not cheap yet. There is more downside likely after the FOMC stops raising rates. Jan 05, 2023

Politics

• Kevin McCarthy’s torturous bid for House speaker exemplifies the dysfunctional state of the Republican Party heading into the 2024 presidential race https://t.co/X3BIIk5cRq  Be bold. Want centrist politics? Ban political parties and primaries. Jan 07, 2023
• South Carolina’s congressional maps will be redrawn after a federal court ruled that the House district lines intentionally split Black neighborhoods https://t.co/iePGQNglOT  District boundaries should be chosen to minimize the length of internal boundaries Jan 06, 2023
• Why can’t Kevin McCarthy get the votes he needs, and what happens until the standoff is resolved? Here are answers https://t.co/eExsSCCvpZ  Well, who knows? Maybe nothing gets done by Congress, and the government shuts down. The Russians invade Alaska, & the Chinese take Taiwan Jan 05, 2023
• Representatives Matt Gaetz and Andy Harris, and even a freshman GOP House member, stand to gain from their votes for Kevin McCarthy for speaker https://t.co/QXtkZIUXJD  Somewhat piggish here, problem of a small majority… perhaps the “Freedom Caucus” could do a deal with the Dems Jan 04, 2023
• Directors who often have little financial expertise are looking after the retirement funds of US public servants. They’re proving to be no match for a system that’s exploded in size and complexity https://t.co/vXZiUcPc33  We do our best to keep investment expertise off the boards. Jan 04, 2023
• I applied to serve on the Maryland & Howard County Pension Boards as a citizen representative. I am more than a generalist investor; I am an investment actuary. I understand it all. Of course they didn’t choose me. Politics. https://t.co/9FP9JeS9vp  Jan 04, 2023

Science

• The phenomenon behind California’s double-whammy drought and storms has a name: “hydroclimate whiplash” https://t.co/Z8yUafaHwu  Climate change is getting stretched pretty thin to explain every unusual bit of weather. Jan 08, 2023
• US Army’s Flow Battery Could Change Military Power https://t.co/malEss9iyc  If this actually works, it would be significant for intermittent power sources Jan 07, 2023
• Improved Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Are On The Way https://t.co/gkKCcEKDIt  Still has to be developed to scale, but this could be promising Jan 07, 2023
• San Francisco is in the path of one of the worst rainstorms yet in a season that has likely left behind $1 billion in damages and losses across California https://t.co/GSDxXdfpTe  At least this will good for the farmers Jan 07, 2023
• Meet Tree Energy Solutions, a green-hydrogen startup looking to provide low-emission fuels to European companies amid the energy crisis https://t.co/8JCKHUqBe3  This does not make sense. Most projects in this vein are trying to turn NG into hydrogen. Jan 04, 2023
• Is my study useless? Why researchers need methodological review boards https://t.co/nDKAEgFS2s  It would also help if they reviewed the data & statistical analysis in advance, so that it will be “set in stone” and not arbitrarily modified to get a “significant” result Jan 03, 2023

Companies

• How Amazon grew an awkward side project into AWS, a behemoth that’s now 4 times bigger than its original shopping business https://t.co/eAg7FtrYkh  Long read, worth it. How an internal project to standardize $AMZN programming became a business for others needing computer services Jan 07, 2023
• Why Banks Are Losing the War Against Fintechs https://t.co/6NUII7cwNH  This article is really about cultural differences between bankers and programmers. It would pay the banks to teach programmers about banking, then listen to their suggestions once they have learned Jan 05, 2023
• Southwest’s Biggest Mistake Was Forgetting Its Own Culture https://t.co/6yHLAXawM6  This was coming for a while. On a $LUV flight over a year ago, the crew was openly complaining about the long hours and unpredictability of scheduling. Jan 04, 2023
• About that $4bn BREIT deal https://t.co/KoBvPE6FCj  You have an opportunity to exit the troubled BREIT. Take the exit, and feed the losses to $BX, the University of CA, and those who are too slow to act. Jan 04, 2023
• Bank regulators say holding cryptocurrencies is likely inconsistent with safe banking practices https://t.co/lt7wvzuZwv  “Regulators say holding cryptocurrencies is likely inconsistent with safe banking practices.” Keep the two systems separate. Same way we don’t allow FX mismatch Jan 04, 2023

Economics

• What makes the least sense in Chinese economic policy is trying to maintain residential real estate prices at such high levels, virtually requiring huge amounts of debt to support the prices. Housing is important, but it can’t truly be 70% of the assets of the nation. #3redlines Jan 07, 2023
• The Fed needs to stop raising rates https://t.co/eFgO1Oc1ti  I used to accuse Bill Gross of “talking his book” when he was at PIMCO, but in this case, I think he hit the nail on the head. Jan 04, 2023
• Japan’s new benchmark 10-year note brings a fresh headache for the nation’s central bank in its battle against bond bears https://t.co/GtnWVv45eF  Japan risks a situation where something may break. Better to let the 10-yr float. Jan 06, 2023

Financing

• Wall Street wants capital rules eased to unblock $22tn Treasury market https://t.co/VyNaOGhrr7  This could make sense. Treasuries and cash reserves hit the supplemental leverage ratios disproportionate to their actual riskiness Jan 07, 2023
• The deal was unusual because of its timing and purpose. Most banks and borrowers were holding off on bringing new deals after a rocky year https://t.co/lYIn3LYbPU  Dividend deals are usually bad investments. Do they think the credit bear cycle is over? Jan 06, 2023
• “There’s a durable arbitrage built into AAA CLOs. There’s a regulatory arbitrage,” said Sycamore Tree’s Okada. “You’re floating rate, you’re AAA. I’m pounding the table on that trade.” https://t.co/Bpp20OM083  And that will work until it doesn’t Jan 06, 2023

Odds & Ends

• If you’re looking to earn some extra income, these are the most profitable side hustles https://t.co/A3VDHLIjVu  Useful article Jan 07, 2023
• Extra pharmacy certification requirements put an unnecessary stigma on abortion medication https://t.co/hPZ4FkO6Tx  Yes, “safe” medicine that kills an unborn child Jan 06, 2023
• Walgreens plans to seek certification to dispense pills that can induce an abortion, part of a new program through the US FDA to broaden access to the medication https://t.co/VnIunu2BfK  I will be selling my CVS shares. FD: + $CVS Jan 06, 2023
• The Patriarch Behind Vladimir Putin by @tunkuv https://t.co/hltSakx8fR  This is believable, given the long-term fractious relationship between the Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Churches. But both are empty ritualism. Jan 04, 2023
• Pope Francis has been the leader of the Catholic Church for almost 10 years, but he has only been the sole pope in the Vatican since Saturday https://t.co/TxW06Raa9c  Bergoglio is a relativist, similar to a liberal protestant with few absolutes Jan 04, 2023
• The moves partly stem from a growing consensus among many who work in education that disruptive behavior often reflects underlying mental-health issues such as anxiety, depression and trauma https://t.co/KRbLENCvxW  In-school suspension is effective. So is expulsion. Jan 04, 2023
• Sam Bankman-Fried has said Alameda prospered until it was tripped up in a crypto crash. Its troubles were much deeper than that. https://t.co/7JrH5fxqnH  Hindsight is 20-20, even for things with a lot of red flags. Jan 04, 2023