Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Running at the beach

Non-US

• New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s resignation highlights the complexity of post-Covid economic challenges https://t.co/wYjiYV0MLi  People got tired of an overly interventionist leader who did not listen. Jan 20, 2023
• Argentina’s plan to repurchase $1 billion of its deeply distressed dollar bonds has emerging-market investors scratching their heads https://t.co/hlu9qSfIrI  If you are going to do this, don’t announce it in advance. Just do it quietly. Jan 19, 2023
• Entrepreneurs Flee China’s Heavy Hand: ‘You Don’t Have to Stay There’ https://t.co/Ijh5EWbg9A  China faces a talent and capital drain. Once you experience freedom, no level of economic incentives will get you to return to Communist China. Jan 19, 2023
• India may have already surpassed China as the world’s most-populous nation https://t.co/pJiou6pys7  India’s culture would have to change a lot for it to have a fast-growing economy. Cultural change is difficult, so it is not likely Jan 19, 2023
• How Rich Are Gulf Countries? Region’s Wealth Funds Have $3 Trillion to Spend https://t.co/KNNvnYr0BT  Finding new ways to lose money Jan 18, 2023
• China’s population started shrinking in 2022 for the first time in six decades https://t.co/W3S9zvd3Aw  This is not news. Anyone paying attention knew this was coming 15 years ago. Jan 18, 2023
• The UK is poised to threaten social media bosses with prison if they break new safety rules. That’s sensible, says @parmy https://t.co/uMKTmduBFs  Not sensible. We don’t jail corporate leaders for tortious corporate actions. Instead, we fine the companies severely. Jan 18, 2023
• Russians became the top foreign buyers of real estate in Turkey last year, helping sustain the world’s hottest housing market by tripling purchases https://t.co/JHIAXw2uHe  Also happening in Georgia. Many Russians escaping Russia, and becoming significant in nearby nations. Jan 18, 2023
• Western banks struggle to exit Russia after Putin intervention https://t.co/C1tdCYaYzK  The wind-down strategy seems the most compelling Jan 17, 2023

Credit Issues

• The rapid meltdown of Americanas has left Brazilians with the prospect of losing a ubiquitous company known for its iconic red-and-white logo and holiday sales https://t.co/do9eD4mroq  Things like this don’t happen by accident. Management may have corrupted their accountants. Jan 20, 2023
• Property markets face a deepening debt crisis as the era of easy money ends, and the fallout is everybody’s problem https://t.co/fFKTSmtiqI  Stick to low leverage, quality and only “B” properties that are necessary… Jan 20, 2023
• US watchdog cracks down on private equity securitization vehicles https://t.co/rjSGcuzh7i  NAIC: 1) always late 2) underfunded 3) lacks smarts 4) states don’t listen to them 5) tries to grab control of credit questions, botches it, & gives it back to the rating agencies Jan 18, 2023
• Opinion: More rotting assets are lurking in the shadows of the financial system https://t.co/kn6eaxfGMq  Definitely opinion & biased. Many of the things stated here are wrong. That said, if defaults pile up from CLOs, let the entities funding them default, and don’t bail them out Jan 19, 2023
• Big banks might need to be broken up if they become too big to manage & are unable to fix significant regulatory lapses, a top federal banking regulator said Tuesday https://t.co/ThWQ1ujBId  Regulators most willing to break up the big banks likely have the least ability to do it Jan 18, 2023  

Portfolio Management

• Baillie Gifford admits ‘humbling year’ after $14bn loss on Tesla and Shopify https://t.co/2fA5cLEtwT  Evaluate using dollar-weighted returns, like the PE guys do. Jan 20, 2023
• Corporate fraud is widespread – and largely undetected, study says https://t.co/GEyfWRziKA  Cash flow conquers all. If things were that bad, you would see a lot more insolvencies. There is bending GAAP, and breaking GAAP. The former is common, the latter is not. Jan 20, 2023
• Questioning the Illiquidity Premium https://t.co/8Q7lbVMxij  Simply put, you shouldn’t buy an illiquid investment unless you will likely get a premium return versus similar illiquid investments. Realizing an illiquidity premium is never guaranteed Jan 17, 2023
• Investing When Your Time Horizon Is Short https://t.co/lmLOsMtFwv  If your assets need to spent in 3 years or less on average, don’t own stocks. Jan 17, 2023

Science

• Propulsion System Could Get Us From Earth to Neptune in 1 Year https://t.co/iIuEIL25yp  This isn’t likely. Transferring kinetic energy with extreme accuracy would be tough. Jan 20, 2023
• Companies are turning to microbes to alleviate fertilizer’s negative impact on the environment https://t.co/UIqd68kEf2  Milorganite has existed for years, Yara. But other technologies here could be game-changers. Jan 20, 2023
• A nuclear-powered copter on Saturn’s moon Titan. Blimps on Venus. Space engineers are planning innovative flying machines to explore far-away worlds. https://t.co/LWiEDPiztg  At least unmanned missions are cheap. Pity they won’t find any life out there aside from microbe stowaways Jan 19, 2023
• New research finds that global temperatures would be about 0.1°F higher, had it not been for an increase in atmospheric dust https://t.co/LQmqIbtmVv  Think of volcanoes. This isn’t news. Jan 19, 2023

Auto Finance

• Can You Use a Home Equity Loan to Buy a Car? https://t.co/hg91niTa5L  Could be a good idea if you pay it down quickly (<5 years), but not otherwise. Jan 19, 2023
• The steep plunge in used car prices – what it means, and what’s ahead https://t.co/cslWrGFhbQ  In general, the fall in prices is far greater the older and cheaper the cars are. Once new cars are being bought and sold in volume, recent used car prices may decline more rapidly. Jan 18, 2023
• Hangover Time for Used-Vehicle Dealers. For Buyers, Patience Will Pay Off | Wolf Street https://t.co/HP7R7jyREj  It’s likely that the prices of used autos will continue to fall. Jan 17, 2023
• How Auto Lenders Can Help the Growing Ranks of Troubled Borrowers https://t.co/GA7XI7VDmy  The low end is experiencing greater credit stress Jan 17, 2023

Politics

• It’s Time to Put a Brake on the Debt-Ceiling Charade https://t.co/XQ4RAnotdG  Switzerland has an expenditure cap that requires balanced budgets over time. It would be a lot better than what we have now. Jan 18, 2023
• A looming, high-profile fight in New York speaks to a widened interest in state judicial appointments since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade https://t.co/uwNJeEeHxz  New York, where liberals fight liberals. Jan 18, 2023
• Lawsuits across the U.S. are challenging policies aimed at getting homeless people off city streets https://t.co/mIFMoYyamI  I’ve known some homeless people over the years. The main common factor: lack of self-control, which is a skill that can be lost or developed. Jan 17, 2023

Private Equity

• Private equity’s slowdown in 3 charts https://t.co/GTXKsF1wDD  The situation is extended and ugly. What can we say? Watch for writedowns. Jan 20, 2023
• Inside The Secretive World Of Shark Tank Deals: Who The Real Winners Are https://t.co/tMyOhmeC4h  Interesting article. I’ve never been impressed with “Shark Tank”, because like all investing, acting quickly leads to ruin. This helps prove it. Jan 20, 2023

Crypto

• Binance Is Bleeding Assets, $12 Billion Gone In Less Than 60 Days https://t.co/rgdl1GniHM  Bye, bye, Binance Jan 20, 2023
• Genesis Global Capital is laying the groundwork for a bankruptcy filing as soon as this week https://t.co/0WuMU0SrE9  Which will likely lead to a Gemini bankruptcy… Twin bankruptcies, and it is only the beginning. Jan 18, 2023

Companies

• Meme stock Mullen risks drowning its investors by issuing a ton of shares, argues @chrismbryant https://t.co/Vvt5SYVoqG  This is a rational response to meme stock investors: stuff them full of stock. Jan 19, 2023
• Looming Twitter interest payment leaves Elon Musk with unpalatable options https://t.co/oJmCngeWjC  If Twitter is worth no more than $15B at best, then basically the banks will own it, unless Musk tries to fold it into $TSLA, or some recapitalization that spreads the pain Jan 17, 2023

Odds and Ends

• California Has a Gas-Price Mystery: Too High, But Why? https://t.co/FlrG5NHpsB  Low refining capacity, low number of gas stations per driver — blame California regulations. Jan 20, 2023
• Appliance makers are betting that internet-connected “smart” appliances will help transform their businesses and customer relationships—but not all consumers are plugging in https://t.co/z2p59IWD06  Better to buy simpler appliances, they break less, & fancy features are marginal Jan 20, 2023
• A major Hollywood producer just pulled back the curtain on how hard it is to make movies—and how the streaming model killed the independent film https://t.co/LkO6HxoEj3  In general, this is good. Edgy content is usually bad content. Jan 20, 2023
• Tech startup workers are grappling with what the market tumult means for their finances. https://t.co/gbBj7Y8ijd  It’s a big risk to give up a lot for the startup company you work for in order to have a chance at a big score. ~80% don’t succeed. Jan 19, 2023
• The Financial Accounting Standards Board is moving to permit companies to apply a certain accounting method to more tax-credit investments https://t.co/Kfdvz15ydT  This is an interesting corner of investing. The accounting issues matter less than risk-based capital issues Jan 19, 2023
• Fake meat companies promised to halt climate change, protect animals and make people healthier— while making billions. But they’ve turned out to be another food fad https://t.co/gYtcLlx7D8  It comes down to lower quality at a higher price Jan 19, 2023
• Something has been killing American young people in sharply rising numbers, but it’s not vaccines, @foxjust says https://t.co/d0WWDl5z5S  Large increases due to accidents, homicides, suicides, & C19 Jan 19, 2023
• Bob Prince, who helps manage the world’s largest hedge fund, says more people need to lose their jobs before inflation will be brought under control https://t.co/GH6YFITkMR  No, the Phillips curve does not exist in the presence of global trade. Don’t create a financial crisis Jan 18, 2023
• Food waste is a major contributor to climate change. This startup wants to reroute your kitchen scraps from the landfill back to the farm https://t.co/svDMWmZAaH  But why make them pay to do this? This is your cause. You should pay for it. Jan 18, 2023
• The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is weighing new restrictions on fees companies charge to wire money abroad https://t.co/998tjpQ24v  It’s fine if compensation is disclosed or undisclosed, just not both. https://t.co/HWWVFqqmCr  Jan 17, 2023
• Going electric is often prohibitively expensive for truck drivers operating at US ports. One California startup may have a solution https://t.co/sy5KNgEFql  All-in, a lot of the supposed environment advantages go away when applied to extremely heavy vehicles. Jan 17, 2023
• CES, the consumer electronics convention held in Las Vegas this month, felt a lot like the flashy auto shows of yesteryear, with a techy twist https://t.co/mMJPoHDJWj  Just be for real; flashy niche ideas that are costly will not pay off. Jan 17, 2023