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Portfolio Management and Finance

• The buying binge that has propelled US equities almost without interruption for four months is nearing a point where past rebounds caved in https://t.co/VyThd4RAZ1  Valuations are in the 97th percentile. Nominal equity returns over the next 10 years are 2.44%/yr #bondsarebetter Feb 11, 2023
• Global investment banks including JPMorgan and UBS are renewing efforts to gauge investor interest in Chinese developer bond sales, in hopes of revitalizing a key business following a yearlong deal drought https://t.co/1stAioiz51  Policy unreliable, aggregate debt levels too high Feb 10, 2023
• Tough to catch lightning in a bottle twice. https://t.co/zFlb6LUyk4  via @Jack_Raines This is like my saying, “Whom God would destroy, He first gives him an easy win.” Feb 09, 2023
• A lawyer reminded lenders of the human cost should $BBBY crater before all capital-raising options were exhausted https://t.co/DJlWeG350d  “If I was running a meme stock I would be an idiot not to try to capitalize on the madness of crowds.” –Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital Mgmt Feb 09, 2023
• The surge in technology stocks has been pronounced in the riskiest corners of the market, suggesting potential for a reversal https://t.co/pBEaeFIerO  & Stocks have rallied despite weaker earnings and economic expectations, producing “massive disconnects,” https://t.co/MEGXwrTynD  Feb 08, 2023
• Robinhood is mounting a counterattack at the SEC’s proposals, saying they would turn back the clock to the days before zero-commission trading https://t.co/dWi1l28A6c  Just require one central order book for each security Feb 08, 2023
• How Much Portfolio Insurance Do You Need? https://t.co/SQZL9yKuzc  If you can write something like this without mentioning war, plague, famine, expropriation, etc., you don’t understand the concept of “unknown unknowns.” Feb 08, 2023
• Some U.S. companies face reduced cash flows and higher tax bills as they are hit by a double whammy of interest-rate hikes and a tax-law change https://t.co/dLRalMLHSa  Fascinating headwinds for corporate earnings. Tax laws now encourage firms to de-lever Feb 07, 2023
• Expect more defaults in the $4 trillion municipal-bond market this year, Bank of America strategists said https://t.co/KGswnLzzmY  With muni debt of “unrated securities in the not-for-profit, nursing home and hospital industries” you have to focus on economic necessity. Feb 07, 2023
• What Are Stock Buybacks and How Did They Rise Above $1 Trillion? https://t.co/TrZ9SOsaVa  Deficient article. Stock buybacks already get taxed from the capital gains of the seller. Misses a major reason for buybacks: makes a company less of a takeover target #buybacksaregood Feb 07, 2023
• Newbie investors got burned in 2022. Some are backing away in 2023. https://t.co/2ERk1bPyJZ  In general, you don’t make money when you trade; you make money while you wait. Feb 06, 2023
• The stock market is broken https://t.co/Zhe9B3KTGI  Advocates replacing continuous trading with auctions. My take on that (11 years ago): https://t.co/t9AR42RWoO  Feb 06, 2023
• An Early Sign That the Market for Green Bonds Is Stalling (Political risk comes for us all.) https://t.co/3vH8OgYzj2  Investors are not willing to pay much extra for them, so why go through the complexity of issuing them? Feb 06, 2023
• The world’s largest publicly-traded hedge fund is bracing for a selloff in emerging markets, a view that pits it against bulls at some of Wall Street’s biggest investment banks https://t.co/zZqzqXC5T3  It’s rare when you find a skeptic on the whole sector that he manages Feb 06, 2023
• He made a fortune on one big trade during the Great Recession. Now he’s eyeing a new market https://t.co/inhJYR5yXs  Daniel Ivascyn is looking to time the corporate credit cycle Feb 06, 2023
• Despite appearing unsustainable, financial bubbles can last a surprisingly long time https://t.co/XjD8XsktiC  True, but when they break it is a doozy, and difficult to reflate. Beware assets that require investment to maintain their current value Feb 06, 2023

Crypto

• A trove of documents shows who controls Tether, which runs the dominant stablecoin, and the company’s weaknesses. Tether is at the center of the crypto economy. https://t.co/Wjpyee2wsd  Tether, the rogue money market fund that doesn’t publish an NAV. Feb 11, 2023
• One of the earliest peer-to-peer platforms for trading Bitcoin is shutting down, a casualty of the prolonged crypto downturn https://t.co/U0AX9h2lLo  Money laundering does in another crypto exchange Feb 10, 2023
• SEC Chair Gary Gensler says the settlement with crypto exchange Kraken over staking “should put everyone on notice in this marketplace” https://t.co/EsIkDixbin  Similar to repo, margining, or securities lending. Feb 10, 2023
• ‘Sam? Are you there?!’ The bizarre and brutal final hours of FTX https://t.co/H90Ieiuhbu  Insane ramblings of SBF as everything fell apart due to his neglect of normal safety protocols. Feb 10, 2023
• Tether Holdings says more than $700 million in “net profit” was added in the fourth quarter to the reserve that backs the digital asset https://t.co/cQ1x9MmwZ0  Which means they will be hosed in the next bear market. Feb 10, 2023
• The squabble between crypto billionaires Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and veteran Barry Silbert appears to be over, paving the way for a resolution of one of the industry’s biggest bankruptcies https://t.co/Dpc5Jt9aVW  Compared to other crypto BKs this was resolved easily… Feb 07, 2023
• Three months after crypto exchange FTX collapsed, Argentina’s government is weighing creating oversight requirements on crypto companies, sources say https://t.co/sxqT8TXgIn  Funny to see Argentina focusing on the solvency of crypto. What of their own solvency? Feb 07, 2023
• The curious case of FTX VIPs https://t.co/9Y5lfxKHlR  The tangled web of relationships for lawyer David Boies Feb 06, 2023
• There’s a wild theory that the price of Bitcoin is being propped up—and the academic who proved manipulation in 2017 suspects it may be happening again https://t.co/8v7D9Fusky  Simpler theory: Tether is using Bitcoin to back its currency Feb 06, 2023

Odds & Ends

• Tech holdouts are making life hell for their colleagues https://t.co/33MuTLJtxU  But are management teams willing to hold classes for those who are not so good with technology, including top executives? Feb 10, 2023
• A DNA technology that can screen for a wide range of disease-causing microbes in a single test could be a game-changer in diagnosing all kinds of infections. https://t.co/MHxW6gASyI  From a medical standpoint, this is the most promising thing I read this week. Feb 10, 2023
• 11 Important Things I’m Thinking About In 2023 https://t.co/mjiE4oZ0WE  Stoicism, the crutch some people lean on because it is much easier than loving God and your neighbor more than yourself Feb 09, 2023
• The Anxious Style of American Parenting https://t.co/9k4VfViTbY  There used to be more of a consensus on parenting prior to 1980, so there is little good guidance. Also, many people are quick to criticize. Feb 09, 2023
• Why Did the Beatles Get So Many Bad Reviews?, by @tedgioia https://t.co/lued7s54w4  Perhaps all music critics are sourpusses because it sounds more intelligent, and they generally aren’t talented musicians Feb 08, 2023
• Max Martin knows how to create a number-one hit https://t.co/J4157Ro0PB  Get to good stuff fast for an impatient generation Feb 08, 2023
• The discovery of a ring around Quaoar, a small, sun-orbiting world beyond Pluto, is challenging astronomers’ ideas about how such rings form and persist https://t.co/K4Vi2nPAzo  Another example of how we know so little about the cosmos Feb 09, 2023
• An ex-professor has made a fortune making scanners to fix teeth https://t.co/F4fzumb7Jy  Well done, you have solved a significant problem inexpensively! Feb 07, 2023

Companies

• Micron Technology Board Committee Approves Cuts to Executives’ Salaries https://t.co/kQK4gtCF3g  It’s nice to see things like this. FD: + $MU Feb 10, 2023
• Clif Bar CEO, Other Executives To Exit In Wake Of Its Nearly $3 Billion Sale To Mondelez https://t.co/sNGgDRBOZJ  When I read this, I think $MDLZ is losing out because of all of the leaders not staying with what they have acquired. Feb 10, 2023
• BYD is exploring setting up its own factory in Europe. The Chinese carmaking giant is more likely to establish its own plant than take over one from Ford in Germany https://t.co/vi1DVtN3FX  For adoption of EV cars to really begin, they have to cheaper than hydrocarbon cars Feb 07, 2023
• Fossil-Fuel Addiction Is Getting Harder for Oil Giants to Kick https://t.co/lWJUPCEq9w  Hydrocarbons will be needed for a long time. Alternatives are far too expensive for poorer people to afford. Feb 07, 2023
• Lab-grown meat has a bigger problem than the lab https://t.co/pyHn1QQboG  You missed the biggest problem: it will be more expensive than meat via animal husbandry. Feb 07, 2023
• Meet the man who wants to turn empty New York office space into luxury apartments https://t.co/lbk2KRjyco  This needs to be done more. Cities need fewer offices, and more multifamily. Feb 07, 2023
• Bed Bath & Beyond announces offering of convertible preferred stock https://t.co/82mQ7dvXmC  Yes, the financing methods of last resort. Get the next one ready! $BBBY See also: https://t.co/YFm0OHgvak   Feb 06, 2023
• Bernard Arnault has a succession plan to cement his family’s control over his luxury goods empire LVMH — and prevent the infighting that has plagued billionaire clans like the Murdochs & Ambanis https://t.co/SRbovCnUo0  Complicated succession plans create conditions for stagnation Feb 06, 2023

Personal Finance

• Work gives a bit of meaning to life. Better if you know that the core meaning is serving Jesus. I have no compulsion to work. I could retire now. I like working. Retirement is a bogus post-WWII concept https://t.co/x9fpStkXLs  https://t.co/C2LxlUQx6k  Feb 11, 2023
• Have we outgrown a single retirement age? The ability to stay at work boils down to privilege, leaving governments under pressure to address it https://t.co/7yJVJ1Vqlf  Exorbitant promises meets the challenge of bad demographics. We lost a reason to have children via entitlements Feb 11, 2023
• Criminals use Telegram to recruit ‘walkers’ as America’s big banks see an 84% increase in check fraud https://t.co/xzhkrW6oKR  I’ve gotten cheated on this as well. Hint: check your bank account weekly, show bogus transactions to them quickly, and the bank will eat the loss. Feb 10, 2023
• Jim Cramer versus the world https://t.co/98cG6IOAWL  I wrote for Realmoney.com for 4+ years. Some readers called me the anti-Cramer. I am grateful to Jim, who invited me to write. I wrote one article (without naming Jim) to warn viewers about him: https://t.co/ZIw7qaa663  Feb 10, 2023
• Risk-free Annual Returns of 50% https://t.co/Lcil2SnWi4  No one invites you to earn a high return with no risk, except to cheat you. Feb 08, 2023
• Where Do Millionaires Keep Their Money? [It’s Not Where You Think] https://t.co/Fz61jVYz6t  I’m not sure this is right. I’m pretty certain wealthy people have more in their own businesses, and less in alternatives (unless that means real estate) Feb 08, 2023
• A decline in mortgage rates has kick-started people’s interest in buying homes https://t.co/qcehMofDxf  Small uptick, a lot depends on when the recession comes. Feb 06, 2023

Non-US

• As Iran marks the 44th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, the younger generation is digging up the regime’s brutal past https://t.co/kJ37dVAJfj  Revolution in 1979 kept only one promise: Islam. It produced an economically & politically unequal society dominated by the mullahs Feb 11, 2023
• Biden and Lula Put On Pro-Democracy Show Under Bolsonaro’s Shadow https://t.co/pPcHGPJdvl  Why not trade dropping Cuba and Venezuela sanctions for free and fair elections in both places? Lula, you in? Feb 11, 2023
• When I was 20, one of my friends was the son of the US Ambassador to Afghanistan. He had a crude poster on his wall saying “Afghanistan — the Russian word for graveyard!” There was a picture of an Afghani stabbing a Russian. Well, today we spell Afghanistan this way -> UKRAINE Feb 11, 2023
• Moldova’s pro-Western government resigned amid the worsening economic fallout from the war in neighboring Ukraine https://t.co/cXCODSFFuq  It’s a challenge living next to Russia. Feb 11, 2023
• Marina Ovsyannikova said the French group Reporters Without Borders helped exfiltrate her from Russia using different vehicles https://t.co/Z7hw6vGM87  Congratulations on surviving, escaping, and the bravery you displayed on Russian TV. Feb 10, 2023
• South African President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a state of disaster to enable the government to accelerate its response to an ongoing energy crisis https://t.co/llFoCIBLS2  Unless you can root out the corruption at Eskom, this will not succeed. Feb 10, 2023

Adani Group

• India has struggled to attract private capital to infrastructure projects. In Adani Group, New Delhi found an ally ready to promise billions to build a shinier India. https://t.co/TMjeY0Fugw  Corruption has its costs. How much truly goes to build a better India? Feb 10, 2023
• Adani Group plans to prepay a $500 million loan due next month to a group of banks as the Indian conglomerate looks to bolster its finances following a short seller attack https://t.co/1UDde6kuMB  Wonder if they are running short of liquidity, but making a brave face of it for now Feb 08, 2023
• Hedge funds and distressed debt specialists have scooped up bonds related to billionaire Gautam Adani’s business empire as they look to capitalize on falling prices https://t.co/zf7dEQI4CR  Encouraging for Adani Group… the buyers do their homework Feb 08, 2023
• Gautam Adani’s ports business to repay $600mn in race to cut debt https://t.co/RfI7PvW0ED  If he can genuinely pay down the debt of one of his main subsidiaries, Adani Group will likely survive. Feb 08, 2023

Artificial Intelligence

• Misinformation and bad data are the biggest risks to AI bots like ChatGPT https://t.co/OdnNWXxxV8  Use an area where you are an expert, and chat with a chatbot about it. You will be disappointed by the low quality. Feb 10, 2023
• Chinese search giant Baidu plans to integrate an AI-powered chatbot into its main search engine in March, people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/m6IezSGREd  Wait for it to criticize the Communist Party Feb 09, 2023
• Google has detailed new search features powered by artificial intelligence https://t.co/uual0i2tHP  Give the chatbot enough “ethical” principles and it might not be able to say much… from the the company that gave the bland rule “Don’t be evil.” Feb 09, 2023
• Bing-O! @JoannaStern checks out a new version of Microsoft’s search engine with impressive ChatGPT-style artificial intelligence. https://t.co/tDUh1b1U74  As for me, Bing got my first question wrong and Google & You.com got it right. Feb 09, 2023
• Traders See AI Tech Shaping Their Future, JPMorgan Finds https://t.co/tfxzMHdvI7  This is unlikely. Feb 06, 2023

Automobiles

• Auto Credit Availability Tightened Again in January https://t.co/4GTGDuKvzL  Unless you are a cash buyer, this is not a good time to buy a car. Feb 11, 2023
• Auto lenders, dealers draw more scrutiny after pandemic-era boom https://t.co/WSie3ZTABP  Given the way that lending agreements are drafted in a complex way, lenders possess most of the rights, so they take advantage of those who are unsophisticated. Feb 07, 2023
• Even after you think you bought a car, dealerships can ‘yo-yo’ you and take it back https://t.co/VmivEQuNIF  Yes, it should be illegal to sell the trade-in vehicle before the sale is final. Feb 06, 2023
• Auto loan delinquencies rise. What to do if you struggle with payments https://t.co/Xm82fLahZi  Their suggestion: “The sooner your bank or credit union is made aware, the easier it is to come up with possible solutions.” Feb 06, 2023

Politics

• The first major criminal charges that Donald Trump could face for interfering in the 2020 election might come from Atlanta — but won’t stay there https://t.co/Yp5ikYs5Et  Nice to see Trump getting some pushback for his wrongdoings Feb 08, 2023
• Crime Is the Only Issue in Chicago Mayor’s Race by Joseph Epstein https://t.co/HYh74TlnbV  It takes some doing but Chicago makes Baltimore look good by comparison Feb 07, 2023
• Florida lawmakers are proposing to give Ron DeSantis full control over the board overseeing Disney’s special district, as the Republican governor escalates his fight with Disney https://t.co/W5pzQKyjfI  W/the legislature, he would appoint a new board not controlled by $DIS Feb 07, 2023
• The White House slammed a proposal by House Republican committee and caucus chairs to set up a panel examining Social Security and Medicare solvency as part of debt-limit negotiations https://t.co/Vg5td3459l  Someone tell the GOP that a SS payment will get skipped in 2032. Feb 07, 2023

Economics

• Fed’s Williams says there is still more work to do to bringing down inflation. https://t.co/7nWl8htdaL  For diversity, equity and inclusion, the FOMC has imposed maximum IQ limits on its members. Feb 09, 2023
• Some workers are thrilled about being laid off https://t.co/EEKwSOQ2Cs  Remember, it is unusual to like being laid off Feb 08, 2023
• Nearly 10% of US workers report having a main job plus at least one other side gig, a survey shows https://t.co/yYIJwyWSe1  The data here is interesting. More people work 2+ jobs. Few are in the office every day. Feb 07, 2023

Commodities

• How metals keep going missing in an industry that has a history of risk and fraud https://t.co/vZyck422lM  Perhaps you should take delivery. Wait, you can’t take delivery? The problem of warehouse receipts Feb 10, 2023
• Commodity trader Trafigura Group faces some $577 million in losses after discovering metal cargoes it bought didn’t contain the nickel they were supposed to https://t.co/48uoyHJtTa  One metal looks like another, right? Feb 10, 2023