Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Twitter bird with his best friend

Market Dynamics

• Short sellers are betting against Cathie Wood’s flagship fund more than ever before https://t.co/Gkck6wyVws  This may give Cathie Wood a tailwind… shorts eventually have to be bought in… Mar 11, 2023
• US buyback announcements are running at a record pace, with $261 billion in commitments so far this year — though much of it is spread across just five companies, according to JPMorgan strategists https://t.co/2y0XNg9jGq  Profitability, but limited opportunities to reinvest Mar 09, 2023
• Presentation: How to Avoid Financial Disasters by @ritholtz https://t.co/x66S0upQrC  I downloaded and viewed the slide deck. I thought it was quite good. Mar 08, 2023
• As stock markets take another pummeling, more traders are hiding out in credit markets https://t.co/Gf8P2aGdcU  This is making me feel a little more bullish on stocks. Mar 08, 2023
• The bond market is doubling down on the prospect of a US recession after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a return to bigger interest-rate hikes https://t.co/P5lwUgRm2i  Converting junk-grade floating rate finance to credit risk. Mar 08, 2023
• What I Don’t Own https://t.co/HC5DPTZ3aq  Sounds pretty similar to me, except I primarily invest in individual stocks w/ some ETFs (together with my clients) Mar 08, 2023
• The largest-ever buyout financing arranged by private credit firms would allow health-care technology company Cotiviti to pay a whopping 50% of the interest on a $5.5 billion loan with additional debt https://t.co/ytzVQubTMY  Bear market in credit not yet complete for this cycle. Mar 08, 2023
• A cyberattack that disrupted derivatives trading in January is prompting calls for more oversight to combat the risk of hacks across financial markets https://t.co/NvZIUTz5ds  There are basic safeguards for avoiding hacks, but don’t shocked when a hack happens. Mar 08, 2023
• While stock-picking investors wait around trying to decide their next market move, their computer-driven counterparts have no such luxury https://t.co/QEBS5qftSH  Another CTA article, which suggests they might be buying US stocks. Who knows? Mar 07, 2023
• CTAs are minnows, not whales https://t.co/yvT2LmHFpt  Explains how CTAs do position sizing. Mar 07, 2023
• Dividend stocks are hot. Here are ways to pick the right ones https://t.co/DHBWUkrHWY  Watch free cash flow Mar 07, 2023
• Junk-rated companies are borrowing again https://t.co/ZVVFazw0Ck  Spreads may be down, but yields are up. Mar 07, 2023

Odds & Ends

• Recent snowfall won’t end the US Southwest’s historic drought https://t.co/YnKGFUO6Nv  Be happy. After all — weather varies, but sometimes you get a streak where conditions give you more (or less) rain for years. Mar 09, 2023
• This is your brain on AI: Powerful billionaires are pouring money into life-extending technology — and they just might succeed. https://t.co/ncjE9HZmhH  A faulty mirror of the way you think could live after you die, but face it, you’re still dead, and in the afterlife. Mar 09, 2023
• Why your house is a terrible investment https://t.co/Atp9TGOuWp  In general I agree, unless you live in an area that people are still moving into, and there is little land to develop. That said, a house gives you more flexibility in how you live. Mar 08, 2023
• Enough: The Forgotten Lesson of Ben Graham’s Life https://t.co/El31glsWBK  Once he had enough money, he did what he loved Mar 08, 2023
• Chuck E. Cheese Still Uses Floppy Disks To Make Its Rodent Mascot Dance — For Now https://t.co/Q0ie46iBCd  It is truly hard for old tech to die completely Mar 08, 2023
• He’s the Oscar-nominated director of “Tár.” He’s also the accidental inventor of Big League Chew. https://t.co/AHJbyEilBN  This is very weird Mar 08, 2023
• It’s not just you: Customers say they are experiencing more problems with products and service than ever before https://t.co/U7pkDWqdDp  Much as I like Southwest, they have cancelled flights on me too frequently. Mar 08, 2023
• Ken Griffin said his firms are in the process of negotiating an enterprise-wide license to use OpenAI’s ChatGPT tool https://t.co/fhBIQB8N4j  I’m considering it as well; I’m less certain about how much it would help me. Mar 08, 2023
• Second Norfolk Southern Train Derails in Ohio in a Month https://t.co/CSCUXoHm3y  Remember that $NSC is culpable here, the owners of the railcars have some liability here as well Mar 07, 2023
• How Four Scientists Created Gatorade and Became Billionaires https://t.co/I84CCpAbdZ  Excellent and weird story of how Gatorade was created, then monetized. Mar 07, 2023
• SO YOU WANT TO BE THE NEXT WARREN BUFFETT? https://t.co/cOll6lGZBe  Because this is a “paid” substack, this guy will never learn from me how much he doesn’t know about the liability structure of $BRK.A $BRK.B. I would have given him a nice comment Mar 07, 2023
• E-Bike battery fires are soaring, especially in New York City where the number of fires more than doubled last year https://t.co/9hz0ngasL7  People aren’t thinking hard enough here. Any battery that can charge fast and discharge fast is likely to be unstable. Mar 07, 2023

Banks

• The collapse of Silvergate and the takeover of Silicon Valley Bank by the government don’t repeat the Texas banking crisis of the 1980s, but they share similarities https://t.co/5cWjJ2R2Mr  Undiversified & uninsured deposit bases are more prone to runs. And rates have risen Mar 11, 2023
• The US could learn a thing or two about banking regulation from its strategic rival, China https://t.co/5Qx4iCkvrn  Smaller banks tend to be more cautious in their financing. $SIVB is not representative of small banks. And, no, China’s banks aren’t well regulated. Mar 10, 2023
• US bank stocks plunged by the most in nearly 3 years https://t.co/Xr3h4ldo1S  Deposits are seeking higher yields, little by little Mar 09, 2023
• The average 30-year US mortgage rate hit 6.73%, the highest since November, after five straight weekly increases https://t.co/mLjJo24pAn  Interesting to see mortgage yields rise as long treasury yields fall. Bank stock prices have taken a hit also. Mar 09, 2023
• Silvergate Capital plans to wind down operations and liquidate its bank after the crypto industry’s meltdown sapped the company’s financial strength https://t.co/jQSjAnrwwZ  Will they try to sell of SEN? If they do, will anyone buy it? Mar 09, 2023
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell laid out a series of concerns he has with crypto and said lenders the regulator oversees must be “taking great care” when engaging with it https://t.co/ci12LaI68t  They have proof of concept with $SI Silvergate Mar 08, 2023

Non-US

• Western neglect has left Georgia, recently a staunch ally of the West, drifting into Putin’s insidious camp, writes @ThereseRaphael1 https://t.co/BzMLSDNySu  How does the Georgian law differ from US law which requires that foreign lobbyists register? Mar 09, 2023
• Despite 100% inflation, Argentina is providing an unlikely haven for middle-class Russians who have given up on their homeland https://t.co/rNQgJ1sWtu  Argentina is a place for Russians to flee to, then figure out where they really want to live. Mar 09, 2023
• Toblerone has to change its packaging to a generic mountaintop because the chocolate doesn’t meet Swiss laws for using the national symbol https://t.co/lKFt83YzBh  Costs win out over the Swissness business. Mar 07, 2023
• One of the world’s most indebted countries will tell us if central banks went too far, or not far enough https://t.co/H64zsFJV5k  The day of reckoning comes to Canada. Balance sheet stress begets cash flow statement stress once interest rates rise. Mar 07, 2023
• Estonia’s prime minister, one of Ukraine’s staunchest backers among Western leaders, won a second term, a sign of continuing support for Kyiv in Europe’s east https://t.co/ssRAzqgWMN  Brave Estonia. Mar 07, 2023

Commercial Property

• Adler: The property group’s market capitalization has fallen more than €3Bn in just over two years. It now needs a €938Mn financing deal, but some creditors are opposing this in London’s High Court https://t.co/ACtqFHXFul  Near the start of a credit bear cycle the weakest default Mar 10, 2023
• Even wealthy landlords are skipping payments on office buildings https://t.co/ta53kWt2LK  For office property owners, as they approach the balloon repayment of principal they face unwilling lenders. Then the mortgagees face unwilling buyers. Mar 10, 2023
• A hedge fund manager who made a 119% return shorting debt linked to shopping malls is betting on fresh pain in the US commercial property market https://t.co/fEMWwLyRVT  Difficult to short office-related CMBS Mar 09, 2023
• A handful of office landlords — from Pimco’s Columbia Property Trust to Brookfield — are defaulting on debt as interest rates ratchet up the pain for property owners https://t.co/USdBjJ03kW  And so the rationalization of unneeded office space begins. Mar 09, 2023

China

• “It’s not our assessment that China wants to go to war” over Taiwan, US spy chief Avril Haines told a House panel https://t.co/5CScZBwYVN  Yet not everything goes according to plan. Accidents happen. Mar 09, 2023
• China in a hard pivot to more supply-side reforms https://t.co/oRNbF7a0Gp  The Chinese Communist Party always talks about getting people to consume more, but the politics of that implies more freedom, so they never follow through. Japanese style malaise ensues Mar 09, 2023
• More local government financing vehicles in China may seek debt reprieves after authorities issued clearer instructions on how to defuse one of the nation’s top financial risks https://t.co/gOEGTrBUrR  This doesn’t do anything to reduce debt at the local governments Mar 08, 2023
• As China tries to turn the page on one of its worst stretches of growth since the 1970s, its economy is being weighed down by the colossal debts of its local governments https://t.co/sPQJDAwBr5  China’s debt capacity is surpassed by local govt debts. Local govts cut key services Mar 08, 2023

Politics & Policy

• Stablecoins Like UDSC Are Commodities, CFTC Chair Says https://t.co/ZE42RfbIYE  Regulate them like money market funds Mar 09, 2023
• Jenna Ellis, an attorney who once described herself as part of an elite strike force representing former Pres. Donald Trump, was disciplined by a judge after admitting to falsely claiming the 2020 election was stolen https://t.co/fuX7cUMWLR  Are lawyers allowed to lie in court? Mar 09, 2023
• TikTok’s post-reality values increasingly clash with progressive ideals, say @parmy and @tculpan https://t.co/rlIEEXMjBZ  It is ridiculous to blame this on China. The US is a shallow place where many want to look more beautiful than they are. Who cares about “progressive ideals?” Mar 09, 2023

Superconductivity Breakthrough

• A research team’s breakthrough in superconductors could lead to more efficient electrical grids, better battery life for handheld devices and improving nuclear fusion https://t.co/Z7rnW6acTk  Nitrogen-doped Lutetium Hydride. What a concept using an element that is hard to produce Mar 08, 2023
• From the Time-Life book “Matter” (1968) regarding Lutetium: “With many of its chemical and physical properties unknown, it has no practical value.” It is a byproduct of processing monazite https://t.co/gelAuCYUvP  https://t.co/1CBTaS2oUz  Mar 08, 2023
• And how you would maintain a PSI of 145,000 to use this as a superconductor would be challenging, though less challenging than other superconducting materials regarding temperature and pressure https://t.co/1CBTaS2oUz  Mar 08, 2023

Comments

• @mark_dow What of those who pay on CDS indexes? Also, you could short $HYG while being long $IEF / $SHY to neutralize Treasury duration. Mar 10, 2023
• @ritholtz You are welcome. Recently I did a presentation like that for the Baltimore CFA Society’s reception of new charterholders. That said, I am an active manager, but I eat my own cooking. 80%+ of my total assets are in my strategies, and 95% of my liquid assets. Mar 09, 2023
• @JimPethokoukis Why “policymakers” use short-term data that is error-prone to make long-term decisions? (Neglecting lags as well…) Mar 08, 2023

Economics

• Next big job cuts will be in finance and health care, data show https://t.co/ub34knyFh5  Job cuts are coming. Here is a good guess as to where they come from. Mar 11, 2023
• Transcript: The Real Reason Companies Are Still Raising Prices https://t.co/NLjbnYE450  Great interview with @SamuelRines @TheStalwart @tracyalloway Mar 10, 2023

Adani Group

• Heard on the Street: Adani stocks have bounced back strongly in March. But even assuming the group avoids regulatory trouble, a further recovery looks challenging https://t.co/t13vz2cW00  Capital is tight, and they are mostly in capital intensive industries Mar 10, 2023
• More shares belonging to some Adani Group companies have been encumbered, a trustee says https://t.co/BYg24ow67p  Margin loans are a risky way to finance Mar 08, 2023