Photo Credit: Olgierd (3rd account) || Masks are a good idea, but they are not a great idea. Wear them for the good of others that you love.
Let me give you a table of how the US states are doing with respect to C19.
Sorry for the less than excellent graphics. My goal here is to give a view of the prevalence of C19 among US states, and how much it has increased over the last month. In order to smooth out lumpy data, I used data from weeks. My comparisons were from the most recent seven days and the seven days thirty days earlier.
I’m not a fan of the positivity rate. I am a fan of the rate of new infections as a ratio versus the population. That is a better measure of how C19 is spreading. I also like the monthly rate of increase in new cases, using 30 days as a month, and comparing the 7-day averages to minimize the variability.
The simple way to express the current problem is to say that the situation has flipped from March-May to now. The coasts were doing horribly earlier, and now the Midwest is doing horrible.
We have to do at least as well as Sweden. We should individually do our best to avoid spreading C19, and encourage others to do so. This is basic epidemiology. C19 is particularly pernicious because of its ability to spread asymptomatically. Protect yourselves and protect your friends. Wear masks when in public, it is better for your friends. Avoid large groups unless they are necessary.
You know that I was an optimist at the beginning of this crisis. I am now a moderate pessimist. As data changes, I change also.
So be careful, and protect yourself and your friends from C19.
Hi David,
I’ve been following your blog for many years, and have always admired your level-headed analysis and liked your insights into the insurance industry.
Now, to turn around and change your tone publicly as the situation develops is remarkable for the courage it takes. I have huge respect for that. Let’s hope the people in charge in the US follow the data and react accordingly as well.
Keep up the good work on your blog and stay safe.
Medical science would be telling people to wash your hands, cover your mouth when you sneeze / cough, stay hydrated, get proper vitamins. That is what Sweden did.
Putting people under de facto house arrest, destroying livelihoods and careers, fear mongering on TV, and discussing the requirement for health passports is POLITICS, not medicine. That is what the USA did.
The USA focused on politics, and failed from a healthcare viewpoint. Sweden focused on healthcare, and they had a good health outcome.
Sweden had “better” results partially because the Swedish public health experts (I am being polite to the US “experts), did advocate sensible responses- masks, distancing, etc., where possible and practical. US “experts” were alarmist, fear-mongering and frankly NOT “following the science”. The US “experts” admitted they lied (from what I can find evidence of), about masks at the beginning.
This “poisoned the well” of communication effectiveness, which was by the way, at the cost of American lives . Yep, I said that. The government, public health “experts” are responsible for needless deaths of their fellow citizens.
The CDC (which also has “dirty hands”) publicly admitted that the total shutdown strategy was very destructive to statistics like cancer deaths, mental health events, e.g. suicides and drug overdoses. (Note- the head of the CDC in public was advocating mask wearing months after initially not recommending it- — all while wearing a mask INCORRECTLY!)- this is very sad stuff.
Further note: MDs are not scientists (unless doing R&D). They are very skilled and talented technical practitioners.
It would have been easy to do what I advocated above- give typical advice for contagious respiratory diseases: masks, distancing, where practical and appropriate. The US medical “experts” failed at their communication job, in their usual, elitist fashion.
This comment refers to one he made that was accompanied by an American flag being used against regulations; if our learned, and this gentleman obviously is, do not know the regulations of our flag, then perhaps he should learn them…he seems to be a strong, Christian reaching out to others and a smart one at that..ask him to simply type into search, regulations of the American Flag..he should bet either Cornell University or Betsy Ross…you do not use the flag this way nor wear as a part of any clothing, not in advertising, not with a face nor graphic on it…there are many more…we need to teach our youth…maybe that is one way they would come to respect this country and want to work for it instead of being in a gang or a riot?
Sweden and Switzerland never shut down…masks cause death and further any and all diseases as we what we breathe in is our own CO2…waste…doesn’t matter. Eighty percent of these masks tested do not even stop air so how can they stop a virus or an organism of any sort…breath it in through the mask and into the lungs it goes…over and over, each time you inhale…this whole Covid thing is a scam; it is starting to come out; thousands know but good ole USA and the NDAA + the Patriot Act, both of which are totally unconstitutional, have put people in prison for defending their homes, for not wearing the mask, you know, making yourself sicker or just plain standing up for your civil liberties…even the UN Human Rights Council came out that our Rights are being violated and the are…USC 18 paragraphs 241 and 242
I received a somewhat personal email from a friend in Sweden…we never put the mask on to any extent…we had three cases, rather proves the masks are causing the transmission of the disease, all three are healed and healthy…hmmm.they have always been ahead of the USA in health…in fact, at one time, USA ranked 12th in healthcare behind Japan, Sweden and many others. Tell you something?
While here 26 known deaths from the vaccine! Don’t take it..this is Gates and supposedly Trump agrees, they, in five years want 50% to 80% depopulation…the reason for the mask..just maybe to reinfect, to kill and to do away with what they can kill this way; enter the VAXX and Gates history of killing thousands, maiming several thousands is still the way he like to “kill best” VAXX…on video more than once.
David — as you gather your statistics, have you recorded the number of actual deaths (due to covid) instead of hyping infections? How does the number of infections compare to other viruses, especially influenza? Is CV19 “better” or worse in infection rates? Because in terms of fatalities, its about the same. No, a man in Florida who was decapitated on a motorcycle should never have been labeled a covid death, that was just medical incompetence. The motorcyclist lost his head, literally. That is what killed him.
I would also point out that your analysis fails to mention sickness and fatalities caused by neglecting anything and everything else. Substance abuse and suicides are drastically higher than “normal” or the averages of the previous 5 years, whichever way you prefer to measure. Heart, kidney, and pretty much all forms of cancer are being neglected while hypochondriacs panic over CV19.
Highways continue to kill more people than covid, year after year. Alcohol kills more people than covid, year after year.
The geniuses in Oregon just made cocaine, heroin and meth legal — but don’t you dare walk around Oregon without an ill fitting mask!!!
And Faucci keeps his job while destroying millions of private sector jobs for his “two week” ego trip.
What is the infection rate from influenza? What is the fatality rate from influenza?
One would expect a halfway competent medical system to have these facts in memory, and be able to present the public with a halfway coherent analysis of how covid compares to influenza. After almost a year (China first reported CV19 in middle November 2019), the medical community still can’t decide if masks are effective or not. They have claimed “its science!” both ways.
So called “experts” predicted, based on an absolutely amateur model at Imperial College, that covid was going to be worse than the Black plague was in the middle ages. Not even remotely close to accurate. And based on that ridiculous hype, they asked the world to shut down for TWO WEEKS. How many “experts” does it take to read a calendar?
The public servants at the CDC and NIH (not to mention WHO) continue to keep their jobs in spite of gross negligence and incompetence. Increased deaths from alcholism, depression, suicides, and willful neglect of all sorts of other ailments. Its negligent homicide. These people belong in prison.
If you are going to write posts like this, please present the total picture, including the number of people killed by the lock down, or else don’t say anything.
Constant fear mongering and hysteria does not help anyone. The hype is killing many people. “Thou Shalt Not Kill”
Completely agree. I left a negative comment on one of your earlier Covid posts because I love following rational people I disagree with, but find ones worth following in really short supply. It’s very difficult to change your mind and even more rare for someone to admit it.
Look forward to your future posts that I find I often disagree with but often make me think.
In the interest of full disclosure, shouldn’t David acknowledge that he lives very near NIH headquarters and faces community pressure to toe the party line? How many of his clients and neighbors are government employees? This is a huge conflict of interest!
Should the NIH public employees acknowledge that they do not face any risk of lockdown job loss, unlike the public that employs them?
If we are talking about shared sacrifice for the common good, when do government employees get laid off?