Greetings

 

• To all of my readers: Happy New Year. Here is to a blessed and fulfilling 2013, amid troubles and joys – no year is w/o them, glory 2 God $$ Jan 01, 2013
• To all of my readers: 2012 had its joys and sorrows, but I appreciate that you read me. I will always try to bring you my best on twitter $$ Jan 01, 2013

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US Fiscal Policy

 

• Why the fights over disaster relief in Congress keep getting worse http://t.co/NZCEwU7N Local disasters increasing funded by Feds $$ Jan 04, 2013
• Sorry Folks, The $1 Trillion Coin Is Unconstitutional http://t.co/RXav6MlY h/t: @carney | Congress controls $$ policy, can’t delegate 2exec Jan 04, 2013
• Why were there so many special interest provisions in the fiscal bill? Why didn’t the president veto it & ask 4a clean bill? #fiscalcliff411 Jan 04, 2013
• Fresh Budget Fights Brewing http://t.co/lOdAltk7 Markets Breathe Sigh of Relief After Fiscal Clash, but Tax-and-Cut Battles Loom $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Infighting in GOP Follows Scuttling of Storm-Aid Vote http://t.co/cUQxnnu5 “Tin ear” When something big hits smaller principles must bow Jan 03, 2013
• How Deal Was Made, Unmade, Then Saved http://t.co/xhHj15fs Surprising deal between Biden & McConnell did an end-around on other tries $$ Jan 03, 2013
• A trifecta of articles on pork in the fiscal cliff bill: http://t.co/0ymE51HH & http://t.co/iEvwLdxE & http://t.co/CCuMAXnS Shame $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Senate-Passed Deal Means Higher Tax on 77% of Households http://t.co/WvIyEkJT What! You thought your taxes would not increase?! Hahaha! $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Deductions Limits Will Affect Many http://t.co/D0rteMMC Taxes are going up more than you think due to the phasing-out of deductions $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Ron Paul Rips Government in Last House Speech http://t.co/UuwfSI9o He was 2good 2b in DC; now he can be a rock star on college campuses $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Sequestration Threat To Defense Sector Begins To Recede http://t.co/QYACs66b Grateful that I did not sell my defense stocks $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Bipartisan House Backs Tax Deal Vote as Next Fight Looms http://t.co/Ns4SgHKX Both sides claim victory & decry dishonesty of the other $$ Jan 02, 2013
• As an aside, when I had the chance to ask Ron Paul whether the Fed’s policies favored rich over poor, he immediately said, “Of course.” $$ Jan 02, 2013
• House Balks at Cliff Deal; Down2Wire as Republicans Object2Lack of Spending Cuts in Senate Bill http://t.co/FkS6o1Ms Fall off cliff $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Lawmakers push one-year extension of farm bill in bid to avert spike in milk prices http://t.co/bRroFoo4 Please, just free milk prices $$ Dec 31, 2012
• US loses if we go over the Fiscal cliff = US wins if we go over the Fiscal cliff | Some will be b affected 4 better/worse; US will b ok $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Energy

 

• US petroleum rail shipments up nearly 50% in 2012 http://t.co/kQnGw63v Only way to get additional crude to the coasts in the short-run $$ Jan 04, 2013
• Buffett Like Icahn Reaping Tank Car Boom From Shale Oil http://t.co/ekehRs3Y Buffett keeps all tank cars he produces-> BN can ship oil $$ Jan 03, 2013
• A Novel Ship Extends Shell’s Reach http://t.co/RAEtM1fH High technology at work in offshore oil drilling. Impressive! $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Shale-Gas Revolution Spurs Wave of New US Steel Plants http://t.co/XEuaDiKY Ask this: what other impacts exist from cheap natgas? $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Financials

 

• “Did the authors look at the “Call Reports” filed with the FDIC? More public data there. Kinda sloppy to miss that.” http://t.co/vCtQkZmu $$ Jan 04, 2013
• Why Bank Disclosure Is So Awful and How to Fix It http://t.co/RwW45LG5 Did they try reading the call reports? http://t.co/vAYMh7wE @carney Jan 04, 2013
• BofA Joins JPMorgan in Having Units Ripe for Sale, Mayo Says http://t.co/4DtCCVdR Is there enough slack $$ around 2 absorb all of these? Jan 03, 2013
• US Money Fund Exposure and European Banks: Eurozone Rises for Fifth-Straight Month http://t.co/nfWYO4jv “Risk on” MMF trade returning $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Insurer Sues Paulson Firm http://t.co/XFGKNGWB Does not seem like an easy win. ACA should have done more due diligence; they r pros $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Basel Becomes Babel as Conflicting Rules Undermine Safety http://t.co/1QIyVdR5 Rules, not principles. External models, not internal $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Big RIA Firm Uses Bible to Advise Clients http://t.co/9mtmySTo Almost every Evangelical w/$$ knows of Ron Blue; never knew he was so big $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Buffett Combines BofA With Buybacks to Beat S&P 500 http://t.co/zo8kLdNz FD: + $BRK.B | BRK is a conglomerate fueled by insurance prems $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Carlyle Agrees to Buy Duff & Phelps for $665.5 Million http://t.co/VoFVh6Oi Cheap price 2 become part of the ratings triopoly $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Fixed Income, Gold & Monetary Policy

 

• Gold Heads 4 Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since 2004 http://t.co/xBRfbJ8P Key Q: What happens to real interest rates; will Fed tighten? $$ Jan 04, 2013
• Gold Set for Worst Run Since ?04 as Fed Signals End of Purchases http://t.co/xBRfbJ8P I would b skeptical here; no idea what the Fed does Jan 04, 2013
• Risk Seen in Some Mortgage Bonds http://t.co/c7rROhEE Many CMBS bonds seem 2b priced 2 perfection, while some fundamental weakness $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Does the Fed need a new mandate? http://t.co/NkfjhSeG Fed should have one mandate: tighten policy when goods or asset markets go crazy $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Fed Officials Divided on Bond Buys http://t.co/7Gh6y8tn & increasingly worried about stimulus side effects http://t.co/SomUi1uK $$ Jan 03, 2013
• While still holding $TLT, my bond strategy did well today b/c of all the emerging market bonds.TLT is a deflation hedge http://t.co/TiTMg6So Jan 02, 2013
• TCW to Pimco Bet on Housing Bond Rally After 41% Gain http://t.co/DcXmVEj9 Feels like squeezing last drop of juice out of the lemon $$ 😉 Jan 02, 2013
• Credit Has Best Rally in Europe Since 2009 With Central Bank Aid http://t.co/csZD3K8n At a cost of socializing future losses $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Why Bernanke?s policies could hurt the economy more than going over the ?fiscal cliff? http://t.co/EZDkZ6Sv Favors rich over poor $$ Jan 02, 2013

 

Market Dynamics

 

• TV is Next: Why Investors Are Getting the Media Industry Wrong http://t.co/yLoZRU55 52 pp PDF | $AMCX $CBS $DIS $NWSA $VIAB $TWC $TWX $$ Jan 03, 2013
• U.S. Electricity Use on Wane http://t.co/dEiZBCDe A good time to avoid overpriced electrical utility stocks, and alternative energy $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Of $30.9B Special Dividends in Q4, 28.6% Went To Insiders http://t.co/QTalSmva Interesting skew on who decided to do special divs $$ Jan 02, 2013
• A Really Good Year?Wins and Losses of 2012 http://t.co/zS69udit Fridson: “Rather than being reassured, investors should be worried,” $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Avis?s smart Zipcar buy http://t.co/SEgD8JPJ Too early. Depends on refinancing, expenses saves, & uncertain synergies & mgmt attention $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Tribune Co. Emerges From Bankruptcy http://t.co/mUGITwmt So who owns the equity interests in Tribune now? Dec 31, 2012
• Risk defined. http://t.co/eC3U00Lb @microfundy gives us three common definitions of risk & explains the virtues & deficiencies of each $$ Dec 30, 2012
• The Six Biggest Investing Lessons of 2012 http://t.co/XWHRu0nG @reformedbroker takes us through mean reversion, momentum, & optimism $$ Dec 30, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

• China Poised for 2013 Rebound as Debt Risks Rise for Xi http://t.co/0P9o0HzX Investment will not work, but will the Govt free the economy? Jan 04, 2013
• El Al?s Shamir Parachutes Into Israeli Vote as Liberman Fades http://t.co/Yyi2iGAv Would heighten tension level if Shamir is elected $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Chavez Cancer Imperils $7 Billion Caribbean Oil Funding http://t.co/j5MLSeYx Lot of “
• Why 49 Is a Magic Number http://t.co/F2DPpmtV France has a lot of firms that have only 49 workers b/c onerous regulations kick in at 50 $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Great Canadian Maple Syrup Heist http://t.co/mCMokL6T Cartel reminds of De Beers. Competitive supply makes it impossible 2 fix prices $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Used to Hardship, Latvia Accepts Austerity, and Its Pain Eases http://t.co/9v7Sf1AH If u haven’t let debt get too large, austerity works $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Chinese Fly Cash West, by the Suitcase http://t.co/L0NCTpo7 Kind of fitting that they come to Canada & US 2gain freedom after wealth $$ Jan 02, 2013
• At Europe’s Doorstep, Fierce War Against TB http://t.co/2Z41atWb Makes good case4 quarantine when diseases r highly infectious/deadly $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Japan?s Population Falls by Record in 2012 as Births Decrease http://t.co/OTHuGOY1 Economies don’t work well when population falls $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Chavez Suffers New Complications After Fourth Cancer Operation http://t.co/fqIwxz8R If he dies by 1/10, there will b a new election $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Other

 

• Then I Watch ‘Em Roll Away Again http://t.co/2uF2LKhf The fascinating story of Otis Redding’s final hit. cc: @reformedbroker $$ Jan 04, 2013
• Threatening Asteroid Will Narrowly Miss Earth in 2040 http://t.co/buih448d That means it will come within twice the distance of the Moon $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Outmaneuvered at Their Own Game, Antivirus Makers Struggle to Adapt http://t.co/wD6LAA7l Whitelisting, Petri Dishes, Cleanup programs $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Disease Rips Through Florida Citrus http://t.co/zXlZEXX0 Bacteria Deal Slow Deaths to Trees; diversify to Brazil & California $$ Jan 02, 2013
• Pattern time: 1-1-13 11:13 PM $$ Jan 02, 2013
• For-Profit Nursing Homes Lead in Overcharging While Care Suffers http://t.co/6RTKMhdq Choose nursing homes 4 your loved ones w/care $$ Jan 02, 2013
• “Minds work best when they r castles, w/a moat, drawbridge raised, defenders ready 2destroy thoughts of deceivers w/arrows & boiling oil” $$ Jan 01, 2013

 

Wrong

• Wrong: In a Diverse New Congress, Several ‘Firsts’ http://t.co/Xy3HVjlo Congress not genuinely diverse; 2 types of thought @ most $$ Jan 03, 2013
• Wrong: This Dow Component Has A 4.5% Yield And Sells For Less Than Book http://t.co/f9AFrt4t My comment: http://t.co/5T9XMJZW $$ Jan 01, 2013
• Wrong: Benevolent Billionaires Should Buy Out Bushmaster http://t.co/iicdOxOd Monstrously dumb column asks liberal billionaires 2 lose $$ Dec 31, 2012
• Wrong: Gauging the Guidance That Models Give the Fed http://t.co/J63vKEWM Neoclassical macro models r not capable of getting turning pts Dec 31, 2012

 

Replies, Comments & Retweets

• @finemrespice @merrillmatter DB plans could have been managed better. Funding rules were too loose @ creation, & IRS discouraged overfunding Jan 05, 2013
• @finemrespice It would then send out notices to the oldest people not yet retired, bringing the retiree pop up to 1/3 size of workers $$ 😉 Jan 05, 2013
• @finemrespice At ~3 workers : 1 retiree. Yearly the government would measure the number of workers & announce the # that can retire (2/3) $$ Jan 05, 2013
• @finemrespice It’s a good idea. It would stabilize %age of people retired vs working. Another way would b2 set the ratio directly (1/2) $$ Jan 05, 2013
• @finemrespice Good idea – Make it a %age (~80%) of the life expectancy of a 20-yr old. %age goes up if pop proj 2 shrink & vice-versa $$ Jan 05, 2013
• @carney Thanks, appreciated. Jan 04, 2013
• .@Carney delegate so much of its rulemaking to study committees. Most of the Dodd-Frank law is getting designed by bureaucrats. $$ Jan 04, 2013
• .@Carney Having a hard time commenting at @CNBC on yr articles. If Congress can’t delegate significant lawmaking, how does Dodd-Frank 1/2 $$ Jan 04, 2013
• “I think you are right. Why is it that bad monetary ideas get more “currency” than good ones? 😉 ” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/VbCZpinR $$ Jan 04, 2013
• You can read my comment $$ RT @BloombergView: It’s time for Japanese women to honor their Gloria Steinem | http://t.co/8brsJJ1v Jan 04, 2013
• ‘ @TheEconomist Cover preview: America turns European. January 5th ? 11th 2013 http://t.co/JuBYRyZW Europe is in far worse shape $$ Jan 04, 2013
• Bigtime $$ RT @NorthmanTrader: @AlephBlog speaking fees in 4 years….. Jan 04, 2013
• @insidermonkey Bigger firms chain together a bunch of 49-person subsidiaries. The French allow it to happen. $$ Jan 04, 2013
• @Dirty_Alfred @TFMkts Key Question: Do financial institutions have enough capital & liquidity to absorb losses,turning debt into equity? $$ Jan 03, 2013
• @groditi I like the added duration so I don’t have to hold so much of it. More room 4 other diversifying bonds w/more potential Jan 02, 2013
• Bigtime $$ RT @mcgilcoli: @AlephBlog a pox on both their houses! Jan 02, 2013
• RT @AsifSuria: Agreed but they should have replaced Black Swan with Fooled by Randomness. MT @AlephBlog: This is a great list. http://t. … Jan 02, 2013
• This is a great list. I have read almost all of them. Here are my disagreements. Aswath Damoradan… http://t.co/ATKQ6wkG Jan 02, 2013
• If he can stop that weird grin, I can stop $$ RT @BloombergView: Can we all please stop laughing at Joe Biden? | http://t.co/xJlpt8wI Jan 02, 2013
• @ritholtz I have a Tex-Mex Lasagne recipe near me. There r a lot of unusual/fusion recipes that borrow the layering idea from Lasagne $$ Jan 02, 2013
• “This is why I use momentum positively in most of my investing, even though I buy a lot of undervalued companies” http://t.co/WlFQV6Py $$ Jan 02, 2013
• “This applies to wealthy people anywhere; at times of crisis, give up 5-20% to preserve 80-95%.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/XFa6akOC $$ Jan 02, 2013
• @carney Great, I respect you, Carney. We don’t always agree, but I respect those that say what they think, contra politicians. $$ Jan 02, 2013
• @McCainBlogette I am sorry, but every generation from the Baby Boomers & prior deserves progressively more blame. You don’t deserve blame $$ Jan 02, 2013
• @carney Am I MSM, or am I just a blogger? I support the debt ceiling. Jan 02, 2013
• Sad but true $$ RT @The_Analyst: making early call that’s your best/most accurate tweet of the year. Somehow she’s worth like $200mm. Ugh. Jan 02, 2013
• Does she realize the she herself is a natural disaster? $$ RT @MicroFundy: Pelosi explaining how natural disasters happen. #nightisyoung Jan 02, 2013
• Bigtime $$ RT @volatilitysmile: @TheStalwart best motivation to close a negotiation: being tired, wanting to just go home. cc @HarvardBiz Jan 02, 2013
• U do it well RT @TheStalwart: Not to get sappy, but had a great 2012. Awesome year. Thanks everyone following and reading and all that stuff Jan 01, 2013
• Yes, default is often the major form of deleveraging $$ RT @ZH_Crown: @AlephBlog @cate_long http://t.co/1nZlMA36 Dec 31, 2012
• @mark_dow @cate_long & the other point is during a financial bust, enough debt has 2b liquidated/compromised/paid 4 things 2 become “normal” Dec 31, 2012
• @fbaseggio @interfluidity @rfraserTX That could work; only difficulty is getting the data; oh, &getting the politicians 2 give up control $$ Dec 31, 2012
• @mark_dow @cate_long Yeh, saw that at the time; one reason we were short so many financials at the hedge fund I worked at — too early Dec 31, 2012
• @mark_dow @cate_long Good bond mgrs know that when as class of debt is plentiful, you have to avoid it. Hard 2do amid benchmarking though $$ Dec 31, 2012
• @mark_dow @cate_long Bad institutional incentives like the CDO mkt had 1998-2007, fed by fin’l institutions reaching for yield even in AAAs Dec 31, 2012
• @cate_long Consumers may not be as leveraged as they were in 2008, but they r still highly levered relative to history amid high unemp $$ Dec 31, 2012
• @GonzoEcon @cate_long Businessmen do not take risks when their own leverage is high &

they know their customers r in the same boat $$ Dec 31, 2012

• ‘ @cate_long No such thing as “animal spirits.” If leverage high, caution is warranted. Low leverage allows 4 borrowing 4 new projects $$ Dec 31, 2012
• RT @TheStalwart: RT @tylercowen: So many say Obama is bad negotiator, but isn’t he actually rolling “the left” and secretly in league wi … Dec 31, 2012
• @dpinsen That *is* cheap. Pity I can’t use them 4 clients — self-imposed simplicity Dec 30, 2012
• Fingernails, def RT @ReformedBroker: Should I take the kids to the Les Miz movie? Or just stay home and pull my fingernails out one by one? Dec 30, 2012
• “If you didn’t mention #4, I was going to. I am still long $TLT for clients, but toward the end of?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/9CGLXgiT $$ Dec 29, 2012

FWIW

• My week on twitter: 36 retweets received, 3 new listings, 57 new followers, 69 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 03, 2013