Category: Banks

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Rest of the World

 

  • West Australia Set to Stay Liberal Highlighting Gillard?s Plight http://t.co/8Vp0mjPjJt Some Labor policies r perceived 2b anti-mining $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Top Stock Kroton?s School-Loans Growth Decelerates http://t.co/NrmeHL4hP9 Brazil goes down the student loan path US has. Better results? $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Merkel Looks East for Austerity Allies in Hollande Talks http://t.co/3uSJ5frCcm Austerity is getting 2b a tougher sell; when does it end? $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Saudi Next Generation Has US Imprint as King Picks Leaders http://t.co/GBReGpuS2x Wahabiism won’t accept cultural reforms; 2 optimistic $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Impotent Mursi Losing Grip on Egypt as Unrest Prompts Reversals http://t.co/tsm8FzIs5x Anarchy rules as Mursi putters; no 1 2 replace him $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • EU Unemployment: Titanic in Perspective http://t.co/StpmdeBEm7 ~12% unemployment across the EU & still rising. Sound like a success 2u? $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • Pound?s World-Worst Drop Seen Growing in Pimco Math http://t.co/4yqRnOldzj Everyone wants a cheaper currency in the race 2 the bottom $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • China ‘fully prepared’ for currency war http://t.co/cdR7AWWTHw Brave words from a country w/an immature financial system $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • Japan’s Economic Bad Mix : Yen, Oil and China http://t.co/ELaLyiQe9e Not a question of Japan getting into trouble, only what catalyzes it $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • Reforms Stall in Athens as Troika Considers Next Aid Tranche for Greece http://t.co/P0n3aSAe9u Still don’t c how Greece avoids leaving EZone Mar 03, 2013

 

Energy

 

  • Chevron Shale Bet Down Under Makes Senex Target http://t.co/GnfWLIKi98 That’s why gas found in Australasia is so valuable FD: long $CVX $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Ethanol Outpaces Gasoline on Longest Supply Drop Since 2010 http://t.co/FluutBbaoa Margins r wide enough shut capacity reopens $$ FD: + $VLO Mar 07, 2013
  • Conoco Says US Should Consider Allowing Oil Exports http://t.co/D6FqHkZIvO Now that we make more than we consume, y not sell excess? $$ Mar 07, 2013

 

Other

 

  • When ‘Jazz’ Was a Dirty Word http://t.co/cpipuRDcNi Fascinating 2c how jazz musicians rejected the label, but played w/great enthusiasm $$ Mar 09, 2013
  • Making a Liberal-Arts Education Pay http://t.co/Ob8wZyKb7Z Trouble w/liberal arts: not enough science & math; written by an English prof $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Stress at Work: Why Women Feel It More Than Men http://t.co/AeLwohdPvL Women tend 2 ‘Tend and Befriend.’ Men tend 2 fight/act or leave $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Rice Glut Expands With Farms Poised for Record Crop http://t.co/6M5bUdEQyF I’ve heard there r animal feed shortages, can rice b used? $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • In Geology, Old-Timers Can Be Worth Their Weight in Gold http://t.co/4c7TP8TKxg They analyze plants, animals, not just computer analyses $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • Many Avoid Tough Path to Citizenship http://t.co/9HEiMYmQTf Costs time & $$, effort from studying, hiring a lawyer, etc. Mar 05, 2013
  • As Pirates Run Rampant, TV Studios Dial Up Pursuit http://t.co/KdBMYEIpOg Story of television trying to eliminate piracy and not winning $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • Glad that Venezuela does not have to suffer through more of Chavez, but sad 4 him. Now, what will the election result be? $$ Mar 05, 2013

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Companies

 

  • Icahn Unbound Takes Activism to New Peak in Deal Fights http://t.co/M2eAw3DLWc He’s having a lot of fun going after poorly planned deals $$ Mar 09, 2013
  • Why Vodafone Should Head for a Verizon Exit http://t.co/0FusnV2ZzG $VOD should make $VZ pay up, they have less need 2 act | FD: + $VOD $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Boeing Said to Boost 787 Battery Tests As Carmakers Aid http://t.co/yOqFiyGlx0 2 Many batteries passing “quality control” @ manufacturer $$ Mar 07, 2013

 

Market Impact

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  • Wrong question. by @ReformedBroker http://t.co/jzY7UcQYuS Tie your hands w/asset allocation. Give yourself limited movement re fear/greed $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Proof the Fed is Juicing the Markets http://t.co/6RDGyEDueG Correlation is not proof, but the monetary base is highly correlated w/DJIA $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Welcoming, and Worrying About, a Record Market http://t.co/K3fdzRpOJ6 Last inflation adjusted DJIA high was not Oct-2007, but Jan-2000 $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • Young Adults Retreat From Piling Up Debt http://t.co/FRIgpI8ELb Saving is the secret to getting the big ticket items 2 make life pleasant $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • Qualified Private Activity Bonds Come Under New Scrutiny http://t.co/LHNuPoAWjQ Corporations have access to issuing tax-exempt bonds $$ Mar 06, 2013

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US Government & Economic Policy

 

  • Yale Suing Former Students Shows Crisis in Loans to Poor http://t.co/nhc0JjmEj5 Loan programs seem cheaper in the short run, deceptive $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Tom Coburn?s Campaign Against Government Waste http://t.co/SeIO1CIQI5 Coburn fights for what is right regardless of what the GOP thinks $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Nurses Spar With Doctors as 30 Million Insured Seek Care http://t.co/jgCNVanub3 These fights will be more common as Obamacare proceeds $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • S&P Credibility Seen Eroded by Complicity in Soured Deals http://t.co/VsYxQL4wfw Where r the complaints about regulators forcing ratings? $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • Warren Buffett Sees ‘Hair Trigger’ When Fed Shifts Stance http://t.co/28nIn3rDiw Right. Now if he would spend time speaking truth 2 power $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • US Sequestration : Market Impact on financial assets http://t.co/6zUZXo2yWq Would nitially b deflationary, but lead to growth later IMO $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • Dr Copper and his funny friends dont agree with SP500 – Divergence ! http://t.co/TpmemT4Ai6 Real economy not doing as well as S&P 500 $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • US Restaurant Index and US Consumer Confidence http://t.co/4Bc83xsrbU Restaurants r sensitive indicators of consumer behavior: weak now $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Federal Reserve: What Happens When It Runs Out of Ammo? http://t.co/F2jHPEROU3 What happens when they need2tighten & reaction is violent $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Two Scenarios for Future of ‘Big Finance’ http://t.co/DdQwk7Jyj6 Finance still needs 2 shrink, the economy needs total debt 2b < 2x GDP $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • US Incomes Fall, Spending Rises http://t.co/ldYgPDETEc What do you expect when you add back the payroll tax? $WMT takes a hit also $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Druckenmiller Sees Storm Worse Than ?08 as Seniors Steal http://t.co/A0eSwqZYab It is very bad, but I don’t get the $211T number, too big $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Obama Orders Cuts That Will Be ?Slow Grind? on Economy http://t.co/lgzqxK8iWw Next stop, 3/27 when the spending authorization expires $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Obama Makes Cuts Personal in Strategy to Bend Congress http://t.co/AqjKaD865f May try to mismanage sequester to embarrass Republicans $$ Mar 03, 2013

Markets

 

  • Edge: Milevsky, Ritholtz, Zweig, Ferri & More http://t.co/N5CIsbv4x4 This year?s Edge Q is What *should* we be worried about? I’m in it 2 $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • Kass Takes Buffett?s Challenge to Present Bearish Questions http://t.co/WEmq4Y57Cn @DougKass gets fun of poking holes in Warren’s theses $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • Buffett’s Advice to Apple’s Tim Cook: Ignore Einhorn http://t.co/5z6QEoMBAm Warren tells him to manage for the long haul. Wise words $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • Investing methods that beat the market http://t.co/1CFvZQMwLf Momentum, small cap, value, yield — can all be mimicked through ETFs $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • Birinyi Says Buy Mining, Technology Shares as Bull Ages http://t.co/ywui2NoQwL Yes 4 tech, but miners have over developed, poor profits $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • How much do stocks really return? http://t.co/J3u19M5AmP Good article, but I think the advantage of stocks over inv grade bonds is ~1%/yr $$ Mar 05, 2013
  • Say Goodbye to the 4% Rule for Retirement http://t.co/AhWrDqfOdy Better rule: Ten-year Tsy yield +2% if bullish, +1% neutral, +0% bearish $$ Mar 05, 2013

 

Other

 

  • In Florida, Sinkhole Risks Grow With Urban Expansion http://t.co/VRX7vsSqDr West Central Florida has a sinkholes, could lose 4 counties? $$ Mar 07, 2013
  • Imagining a Post-Bundle World for Cable TV http://t.co/U86Jducpeg Popular shows/networks would do better, less popular would suffer $$ Mar 03, 2013

 

Replies & Retweets

  • Why should the companies you listed pay 6%, when all of them could issue senior unsecured for less than that? http://t.co/Shc5Rq4c8F Mar 07, 2013
  • @The_Analyst They would give up that much to avoid being sr unsec liability?? Mar 07, 2013
  • Bigtime MT @BarbarianCap: $PRU >Annuity Fees Would Make Bankers Dance http://t.co/brvonxtRHS >> CEO touting how expensive their products r Mar 07, 2013
  • You can say that again RT @munilass: This is beautiful. The use of drones is finally getting the attention it deserves. Mar 07, 2013
  • Good one! RT @JMucken: @AlephBlog It would be metaphorical to give the winner a “gold” medal. Mar 06, 2013
  • I agree w/that, as it says in Romans 3:8 http://t.co/wYE9utGxjD RT @cogent_rambling: Bad doesn’t erase good. http://t.co/6yCqpHp405 Mar 06, 2013
  • RT @agnestcrane: I’d say credit markets feel pretty good about banks ahead of stress tests. BofA, GS, MS CDS spreads have more than halv … Mar 06, 2013
  • I use that when I worry about retailer spam RT @cullenroche: On a more serious note, why in the world do I still use my Yahoo email account? Mar 06, 2013
  • Maybe we could turn competitive devaluation into an Olympic sport. Send all finance ministers & central bankers 2 Sochi w/a 1-way ticket $$ Mar 06, 2013
  • @Fullcarry Thanks for the info, helps Mar 05, 2013
  • Jesus will surprise him RT @mattrixDOTinfo: re: Chavez and being sad. It’s a shame Chavez will now have 2b held accountable to our Maker. Mar 05, 2013

 

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 39 retweets received, 2 new listings, 90 new followers, 36 mentions. Via: http://t.co/cPSEMLXpb8 Mar 07, 2013
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Berkshire Hathaway

 

  • $BRK.B The preferred has 2 other features that materially increase its value: at some point it will b redeemed @ a significant premium price Mar 01, 2013
  • …the preferred also comes with warrants permitting us to buy 5% of the holding company?s common stock for a nominal sum $$ FD: + $BRK.B Mar 01, 2013
  • Buffett to Update His Acquisition Hunt http://t.co/OHzvc2xQBW Buffett has more than enough $$ to buy what he wants; free cash flow is huge Mar 01, 2013
  • We Want Your Questions for Warren Buffett http://t.co/7GiMfdYbst Mail in your questions for Warren Buffett & do it here. I wil do so. $$ Mar 01, 2013

Full Disclosure: long BRK/B

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • Federal Reserve: What Happens When It Runs Out of Ammo? http://t.co/F2jHPEROU3 What happens when they need2tighten & reaction is violent $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Fed Could Slow Bond Selloff http://t.co/HifHyKx4Su And so they dream, not realizing tightening cycles r proportionate to loosening cycles $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Bernanke Says U.S. Must End ?Too Big to Fail? Bank Subsidy http://t.co/ScBqYKo3oG Easy2do: keep raising deposit ins prems till banks balk $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Kuroda?s Inflation Failure Seen in Long Bond Rally http://t.co/EuDTpe0kPd Most nations of the world r trying voodoo economics, Japan most $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Bernanke?s Stimulus Spurring US Employment in Housing http://t.co/GYhrkyWGI8 I would be more optimistic if new sectors were prospering $$ Feb 25, 2013
  • Trade protectionism looms next as central banks exhaust QE http://t.co/M5jJDSbxrD Weakening your currency can give a temporary advantage $$ Feb 25, 2013

 

US Economy

 

  • Dr Copper and his funny friends dont agree with SP500 – Divergence ! http://t.co/TpmemT4Ai6 Real economy not doing as well as S&P 500 $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • US Restaurant Index and US Consumer Confidence http://t.co/4Bc83xsrbU Restaurants r sensitive indicators of consumer behavior: weak now $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • US Incomes Fall, Spending Rises http://t.co/ldYgPDETEc What do you expect when you add back the payroll tax? $WMT takes a hit also $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Obama Orders Cuts That Will Be ?Slow Grind? on Economy http://t.co/lgzqxK8iWw Next stop, 3/27 when the spending authorization expires $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Obama Makes Cuts Personal in Strategy to Bend Congress http://t.co/AqjKaD865f May try to mismanage sequester to embarrass Republicans $$ Mar 03, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Reforms Stall in Athens as Troika Considers Next Aid Tranche for Greece http://t.co/P0n3aSAe9u Still don’t c how Greece avoids leaving EZone Mar 03, 2013
  • Ivory Coast?s Women Reject Equality in Household Debate http://t.co/1AuTdZTb9r Equality means men don’t have to support their households $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Japanese Revival Seen in Honda?s First Plant in 49 Years http://t.co/oKo5aBuxhA $HMC new factory comes just as weak yen boosts prospects $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Wrong: Berlusconi?s Surge Shows Why Europe Needs a Deeper Union http://t.co/f3dQLVA6zB Rather, it shows why the Eurozone should fold $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • India May Curb Widest BRIC Budget Gap for Rate-Cut Room http://t.co/kqhBm895gt BRIC should not b a group; problems r very dissimilar $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Asia s Huge Debt Growth Problem: Remember 1997? http://t.co/dZ3nAnFyXe Bank lending/GDP in Asia exceeding levels at 1997 crisis $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • $20 Phone Stars at Mobile World Congress http://t.co/mbKdgSMwso And it can go 35 days without charging; $NOK – hero of developing world $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Ruchir Sharma: China Has Its Own Debt Bomb http://t.co/DaoTuJGO17 China is so bad off that no one would want to be in their position. $$ Feb 26, 2013
  • China?s premature overheating http://t.co/2YBgqsA365 Need to free the economy, end force-feeding of credit to glutted sectors & cronies $$ Feb 26, 2013
  • Canadian Economy Tumble http://t.co/sDbAj0uajE Compilation of articles showing the slowing Canadian consumer, & its effect on the economy $$ Feb 25, 2013
  • Has Spain?s Economic Contraction Become Self Perpetuating? http://t.co/XOSFgBL6yb Population shrinkage from migration kills entitlements $$ Feb 24, 2013
  • Pettis: Countries w/higher external debt levels r constrained in their ability2wage currency war w/countries w/lower external debt levels $$ Feb 24, 2013

 

Financial Sector & Pensions

 

  • Two Scenarios for Future of ‘Big Finance’ http://t.co/DdQwk7Jyj6 Finance still needs 2 shrink, the economy needs total debt 2b < 2x GDP $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Druckenmiller Sees Storm Worse Than ?08 as Seniors Steal http://t.co/A0eSwqZYab It is very bad, but I don’t get the $211T number, too big $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • McGraw Fighting U.S. Justice Recalls AmEx Battle to Save Company http://t.co/R6likSWxrk He fights valiantly against those who r evil $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Rule Split to Put U.S. Banks at a Loss http://t.co/BUAORxUyjt This is overstated; the real cash flow happens through statutory accounting $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Gatsby, Galbraith and the Myth of Coolidge?s Crash http://t.co/prutRWBzHS The Crash caused by debt over-accumulation, like current crisis $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Payday Loans Get US Consumer Bureau Scrutiny as ?Debt Traps? http://t.co/cfYHHUPsX7 This is one area where I would favor fiduciary stds $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Providence, R.I. claims firm missed $10 mln in pension costs http://t.co/GgHm2FAIIT Suing the actuarial firm for liability miscalculation $$ Feb 28, 2013
  • Wells Fargo Credit Profile Hurt by Heinz Deal, Moody?s Says http://t.co/ND3APjqqfk | FD: long $WFC I think the $HNZ loan is well-proected $$ Feb 26, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Imagining a Post-Bundle World for Cable TV http://t.co/U86Jducpeg Popular shows/networks would do better, less popular would suffer $$ Mar 03, 2013
  • Assembly-Line Pizza Draws Hungry Fast-Casual Investors http://t.co/cozthTImDm Pizza to order will be available at reasonable prices $$ Mar 01, 2013
  • Too Much OIL http://t.co/PLBMRD24Vw Provides one useful tailwind for the US economy $$ Feb 26, 2013
  • Joel Kotkin: America’s Red State Growth Corridors http://t.co/ydjK0zKPyf Pro-business states tend to attract more biz & population $$ #texas Feb 26, 2013
  • Dennis Gartman: Selloff More Than a Rumble http://t.co/Y9IBBPHAyf Sometimes when weak holders arrive, an event like Italy trip them up $$ Feb 25, 2013
  • Generic-Drugs Court Decision Irks Businesses http://t.co/RJEEWut9Cs I don’t think this precedent will stand after the appeals process $$ Feb 25, 2013
  • I finally wrote my “big think piece” regarding security pricing. Here it is: http://t.co/hE6EGgjcJZ Death 2 Modern Portfolio Theory! $$ #FTW Feb 24, 2013
  • You’re Not as Good an Investor as You Think You Are http://t.co/2caH2rv5Rf We deceive ourselves to feel good $$ by @jasonzweigwsj Feb 23, 2013

Comments & Retweets

  • @PScatterpatter I posted a link to a smaller document with last night’s blog post http://t.co/ndWwIgtwPC Mar 01, 2013
  • @PScatterpatter Ernst & Young put it together to teach their own people Feb 28, 2013
  • @kyles09 I don’t see anyone willing to outbid & pay breakup Feb 28, 2013
  • @applehead72 enough refining, but not in right spots, also not enough transport abilities Feb 28, 2013
  • @Nonrelatedsense Didn?t know that, thanks. Feb 26, 2013
  • Anyone else have a problem that the latest Java 7 release (update 15) causes some programs to fail, like IB’s TWS? Feb 25, 2013
  • “Josh, if you have 4-6 hours to read it, the book “Once in Golconda,” gives the flavor of the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/jaZDnLqKvt $$ Feb 24, 2013
  • “Well done, from dyed-in-the-wool fundamentalist. As an example, Buffett has a bin on his desk?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/1rAp8LeP85 $$ Feb 24, 2013

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FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 24 retweets received, 117 new followers, 37 mentions. Via: http://t.co/cPSEMLXpb8 Feb 28, 2013

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Full Disclosure: long BRK/B, WFC

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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Rest of the World

 

  • IMF: Canada could make case for more interest rate cuts http://t.co/Zd3zmMUH IMF peddles snake oil2Canada, lower rates would b a disaster $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Why Venezuela’s Devaluation Is Biting http://t.co/LL54JRZ8 Corporations operating in Venezuela get hit b/c there is no good way 2 hedge $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Soros Aide Wins Kudos for Japan Bets http://t.co/DoaYtYMJ Scott Bessent has his own investing ideas, freeing his boss 2 peddle bad ideas $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Euro-Zone Economy Plunges http://t.co/JEQVfGep Eventually Germany is going to have to accept that debts they r owed must be written down $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Tensions Mount as China Snatches Farms for Homes http://t.co/a8aIqqxR Only backward countries like China prohibit ownership of land $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • China’s Internet ‘Wall’ Hits Business http://t.co/Kh7zDD0E The Great Firewall of China hinders commerce. Also, harder to get VPNs now $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • No Shirakawa Eulogies as JGBs Look Beyond Weak BOJ http://t.co/9orwutaY The BOJ is still sterilizing, but they r buying long-dated JGBs $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Japan Needs Weaker Yen; US Has No Right to Complain http://t.co/OG5tcNFS At least *someone* has2test resolve of US “Strong Dollar Policy” $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Panasonic CEO Attacks Sprawl in Bid for Profit: Tech http://t.co/bfsbdZLO $PC is a tough turnaround, but maybe this guy could do it. $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Irish Town Lives Up to Motto Amid Horse-Meat Scandal http://t.co/cMIQRtUd ?Be at the center,? is the motto of the Irish town of Ballybay. $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • G7 Nations Attempt to Avoid Currency War http://t.co/CJjCgjzr G-7 Roils Currency Markets With Split on Concern Over Yen http://t.co/xH2ro4tk Feb 13, 2013
  • The problems with Petrobras http://t.co/pgibXCf5 Rapid growth & large investment plans rarely work well; good growth is incremental $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • USD-JPY: False Start? http://t.co/kVWnFDH6 The Japanese r changing the currency game; the sterilization is gone. What central bank next? $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Chinese Workers?in Greenland? – Businessweek http://t.co/nmzjpHaP China moves 2 monopolize rare earth metals, maybe, now mining Greenland $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Canadian Mega Housing Bubble Part 2 – Impact on Canadian Economy http://t.co/WbS22E3Z On the bright side, Canadian Gov’t not overindebted $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Canada is not immune of a global slowdown http://t.co/NDCdMHOY slower global economy -> slower increase in demand 4 crude oil $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Chavez Risks Backlash as Venezuelan Deficit Prompts Devaluation http://t.co/V5RLwpMW Squanders well-being of nation for personal goals $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • An Insider’s Guide to Counterfeiting Wine – Businessweek http://t.co/SoVp0OrF 3 ways to counterfeit expensive wines & how to avoid them $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Most Australian Wine Exports Ship in Giant Plastic Bladders http://t.co/jL1S9KLF ?We don?t ship glass around the world, we ship wine.? $$ Feb 09, 2013

US Politics

 

  • State Exchange Buildout Shifts Into High Gear http://t.co/mwSFxe9e When history deals w/what destroyed healthcare, will b a pic of Obama $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • James Bovard: Perform Criminal Background Checks at Your Peril http://t.co/y8kZYsq4 Another reason why most jobs aren’t advertised $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • A Chinese Hacker’s Identity Unmasked http://t.co/5BE5XgKe Details the means by which a significant Chinese hacker was exposed. $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Republicans See Obama Second-Term Agenda as Dead in Water http://t.co/uR4sUMjI Worked in 2011-2012, will work in 2013-2014 $$ #justsayno Feb 14, 2013
  • Public Expenditures Austerity and SP500 addicted to QE http://t.co/TzTzL9VL We need to have a debate over whether QE helps real economy $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • How Not to Run a Pension http://t.co/MwNhzEdd John Mauldin on pensions mess we r in federal, state, & municipal. Blue states worst off $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Central Banks Gone Wild: What Can Investors Do? http://t.co/wzL2xadd Gold, stocks, & the currency of the one that loosened last w/ a lag $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Obama S&P Case Started When Toxic Debt Masqueraded as AAA http://t.co/V9umvcfN S&P shuld show how little $$ was lost on AAA securitized debt Feb 12, 2013
  • US Economy – Growth Still coming from Borrowing? http://t.co/MTRiKYNi Yes, a lot of current consumption stems from more consumer debt $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Corn growers get two-thirds of record US crop insurance payout http://t.co/2D1wWc0E Farm lobby swilling @ trough, subsidies not needed $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Central banking and bubbles: Scott Sumner is wrong | The Economist http://t.co/wDTZzEQ6 It’s not hard to measure total debt / GDP ratio $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Biofuel Scandal Pushes Trading Firm Into Bankruptcy http://t.co/uETQyx0D firm accidentally sold $9 million worth of fake biofuel credits $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Should the Fed pop bubbles by raising interest rates? http://t.co/IhKnbA80 Fed should avoid creating bubbles in the first place $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Bipartisan Letter Seeks Answers on Open-Government Failures http://t.co/shFKY7PB Many people voted for change & got Bush-plus in return $$ Feb 09, 2013

 

Berkshire Hathaway & Heinz

 

  • Shopping Spree for Wall Street http://t.co/QNfGJ14E Premature I think. Yesterday was big4 M&A, but it could just b a fluke $$ $HNZ $AMR $LCC Feb 15, 2013
  • First Bud, Now Heinz, Brazilian Deal Maker Lemann Grabs Brands http://t.co/CxWLqjPH A glimpse at the guys *really* behind the $HNZ deal $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Buffett?s Buffet: An All-American Meal at Warren?s Table http://t.co/WyjedMKb Can get a complete high-calorie meal at Warren’s restaurant $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Three Billionaires Join Buffett for Heinz Deal http://t.co/avb4QtVb Meet real guys behind the $HNZ deal; Buffett is riding on their bus $$ Feb 14, 2013

 

Other

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  • Pope?s Culture Club Masks Conclave Packed With Benedict?s Clones http://t.co/0cv1g1T0 1st article I’ve seen that gets it. No major change $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Home Schooling & working from home has odd fun moments like my 16yo asking, “Why is the NE legislature unicameral?” http://t.co/CefD1i4p $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Uncork the Nose’s Secret Powers http://t.co/jKTvg3Ki There is an element of “use it or lose it” 4 ability to smell as we age $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • LightSquared?s Ghost Raised in Fight Over Talking Cars http://t.co/CGuxCIvh Maybe the Defense Dept could free up some spectrum it hoards $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • The World’s Top 10 Most Innovative Companies in Finance http://t.co/pzqzRJUr Mostly credit/transaction facilitators, some risk mgmt $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Skin in Which Game? http://t.co/UV18ORq0 If I was going into an intellectual fight, I would bring @EpicureanDeal w/me rather than @nntaleb Feb 11, 2013
  • Blizzard Dumps Snow in Northeast, Knocks Out Power http://t.co/nji84Ub0 My sympathies. Remember 3 years ago getting 2 of those in a row $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Are Polar Bears Really Disappearing? http://t.co/5Epxg666 Probably not, population is bigger than in 1965, but small than in 1990 $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • A ‘Bucket List’ for Better Diversification http://t.co/XqjjhklO from @jasonzweigwsj | Good strategy, similar to the Permanent Portfolio Feb 09, 2013

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Companies

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  • Cisco Won’t Spend Money In The US Until The Tax Code Is Changed http://t.co/mbB7Dwk3 Logical outcome of poorly designed corp tax policy $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Buffett does all he can to make his 13F hard to drag into Excel $$ $BRK.B Feb 15, 2013
  • As I go through 13F filings, it’s interesting to see industry concentrations. Some like retail, others financials, tech, energy etc $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Dodge & Cox http://t.co/zJzIEISU Maybe it shouldn’t make me feel better when I see a manager I like owning shares that I do, but it does $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • P&G Finds a ?Goldmine? in Analytics http://t.co/y0mnK8kH All large consumer businesses will realize detailed consumer knowledge is key $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • $AAPL at Cheapest Since 2000 Signals Buy to Gamco, Thornburg http://t.co/rllHxys5 Not simple; Big companies need bigger markets 2 grow $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • $FLEX raises $1B as a junk grade company for 7 & 10 years @ 4 5/8% & 5% & raises financial flexibility http://t.co/hOuCNEP7 FD: + $FLEX Feb 13, 2013
  • Assurant Gains as Fannie Mae Force-Placed Plan Stalls http://t.co/ELDqXD5O $AIZ soldiers on, w/rate decreases, but with a strong business $$ Feb 13, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • We still have renters to thank for healthier housing market http://t.co/apBD0gHD Which means 2many properties r in the hands of investors $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Do Junk Bonds Still Live in the Best of Both Worlds? http://t.co/j2w2docJ Demand 4 income is unabated, but there r limits 2 how low yields go Feb 14, 2013
  • SP500 Futures – Warning Signs Flashing RED? http://t.co/4gDyn3Ap Compendium of a lot of bearish reasoning, FWIW $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Bridgewater Bets on Stocks as Cash Moves Into Market http://t.co/GZTePjCz Dalio bets on reflation amid central banks fanning the flames $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • How banks could get blown away by bond bubble http://t.co/xVpBFWmH A bond market in rebellion could deliver a lot of MTM losses 2 banks $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • The Fed?s tricky QE3 escape http://t.co/mcQadLoh There is no escape; when bond market turns on the Fed, vacuous policies will b exposed $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • US High Yield Bonds: $HYG Disconnect with $SPY http://t.co/r0t4DASq S&P 500 strong while junk is weakening. Could b toxic for stocks $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • To Drown in OIL http://t.co/xVJlIwZj Cushing inventories are at records, even w/the Seaway Pipeline pumping crude to Houston $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • SP500 Futures- More Warning Signs? http://t.co/Uc9LNqQB Too much bullishness, credit feeling soggy $$ $SPY Feb 12, 2013
  • Buyout-Boom Shakeout Seen Leaving One in Four to Starve http://t.co/wPcBuebk Always best to invest when capital is scarce, not in glut $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • How Should an Investor Decide Whether to Dump a Mutual Fund That Has Been Doing Poorly? http://t.co/9c7lY4yI 12 opinions, mostly indexing $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Nasdaq Talked With Carlyle About Going Private: Sources http://t.co/LoFBgXH3 Cheap $$ looking 4a home; question boils down 2 price $NSDQ $CG Feb 12, 2013
  • Why These 4 Refinery Stocks Boast Bolting RS Lines http://t.co/jlb6luXS Will have to sell a refiner soon; momo crowd creating overshoot $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Dell Defends Deal: ?Offers an Attractive and Immediate Premium’ http://t.co/xrSaBCRs Objectors wud b convincing if they bot aggressively $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • The Dell Deal Is a Steal That May Die http://t.co/sVQj7aoe What amuses me is that largest complainer has been selling even as low as $10 $$ Feb 09, 2013

?

Wrong

  • Wrong: Buffett Cash Targets General Mills to Grainger http://t.co/TybErutX Many do articles like this; none of them ever prove correct $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Wrong: Congress Starts Examining Changes to Charitable Tax Break http://t.co/cLSOeDUU There r much better ways to raise taxes or simplify $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Plans to Expand Preschool Unveiled http://t.co/VWDcxkAE It is better educationally to have young children @ home most of the time $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Wall Street Fading as Emerging-Market Banks Gain Share http://t.co/NLoYMLNy Too soon, the EM banks r immature w/risk control $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Wrong: Next Pope to Face Calls for Renewal After Benedict Resisted http://t.co/LNQ30x5Q American media does not understand the Vatican $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Wrong: An Aging Population May Be What the World Needs http://t.co/RBjuVRce Economies do not work well when # of workers shrinks $$ Feb 11, 2013

?

Replies and Retweets

  • .@joshuademasi Come on in it’s around the back, just a half a mile from the railroad track. U can get anything u want @ Warren’s restaurant Feb 15, 2013
  • @michellemalkin For the most part, I don’t tweet to engage; I use it to inform. Used 2do news blog posts, now I tweet good stuff 2 read $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • @richriker EDGAR is free. There are some pay services that make it simpler to get 13F data, or other data filed w/the SEC Feb 15, 2013
  • ‘ @richriker Depends what you mean. They are all available at EDGAR http://t.co/PjUFyetg I have the pgs for 77 mgrs bookmarked $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • @Nonrelatedsense They did, as did Legg Mason, Third Avenue & others that thought value investing was “buy it cheap,” not safety Feb 14, 2013
  • @PlanMaestro Thanks, btw, I like your new logo — cool Feb 14, 2013
  • @researchpuzzler Thanks for showing that to me; I expect most actuaries will yawn at it; academics doing theory when current methods work $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Shocking revelation RT @EddyElfenbein: “I?m aggressive and annoying” – Paul Krugman http://t.co/9r8z51ke Feb 13, 2013
  • Bank shills $$ RT @davidmwessel: All 12 Fed bank presidents write FSOC asking for tougher rules on money market funds. http://t.co/0XhI4WXs Feb 12, 2013
  • U know it RT @historysquared: “TREASURY SECRETARY NOMINEE LEW:Says He Will Maintain a Strong Dollar Policy if Confirmed.” – do they all lie? Feb 13, 2013
  • ‘ @GaelicTorus I’m only human. Herod forgot that. http://t.co/iixVdgAN I haven’t. Thanks for the praise, though. Feb 13, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “Warren Buffett turns his eye to annuities – MarketWatch” http://t.co/kz7S0yVP Feb 13, 2013
  • On the tweet two previous: long $AIZ . one of the best insurance companies I have known Feb 13, 2013
  • @JamesMarsh79 My view is inbetween. There r regularities, but w/a lot of noise around them Feb 12, 2013
  • Dalio is like Gross, he plans intermediate term but adjusts frequently $$ RT @jckhewitt: Whatever happened to that beautiful deleveraging? Feb 12, 2013
  • @MarshallFraser I don’t disagree w/crop ins., just the subsidy most of which makes it into the pockets of Big Ag & insurers, not familyfarms Feb 12, 2013
  • $JNK & $RUT diverge significantly, uh oh $$ RT @DougKass: One of the scariest charts extant http://t.co/WeLlmyhu (Hat tip Divine Ms M!) Feb 12, 2013
  • “I was skeptical of Apple, but I only mentioned it in tweets, so I can’t take much credit?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/L6p8D5Ic $AAPL $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • @joshuademasi Also, that every tightening cycle over the last 30 years ending with something blowing up; Fed rides to the rescue 2 soon $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • @joshuademasi I know that, but the ultimate proof over the last 30 years was the massive accumulation of debts from their ez $$ policy Feb 11, 2013
  • @ScottGalupo Totally disagree. BBA has been needed 4 40 years, and would have limited damage done in the present crisis. Debt is the problem Feb 10, 2013
  • @zringer21 Responded — hope you like it. Feb 10, 2013
  • @jasonzweigwsj I really admire your views, as you may surmise from my comments. Here is my piece on the topic: http://t.co/yPpCBfOM $$ Feb 10, 2013
  • @jasonzweigwsj I have written about this: http://t.co/yPpCBfOM Few want to follow sound ideas. Problem: If everyone did this gold wud soar Feb 10, 2013
  • @cate_long I am conservative in most ways, but Peter Wallison makes me nervous; I don’t usually trust his reasoning. Not enough real thought Feb 09, 2013
  • RT @EmanuelDerman: The EMH was economic jiu-jitsu to turn weakness into strength. “I can’t figure out how things work, so I’ll make that … Feb 09, 2013

 

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 48 retweets received, 2 new listings, 74 new followers, 58 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Feb 14, 2013

 

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part VII

The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part VII

Posted on by David Merkel

1) One place where being an actuary and being a financial analyst melded well was with Affordable Housing and Historic Tax Credits.? In all of these investments, it made a great difference as to what the Statutory, Tax, and GAAP accounting bases.? When I described my methods of working through the free cash flows, AHIC [The Affordable Housing Investors Council] wanted me to speak to the whole regarding my methods.

I never gave the talk because we were full on tax credits, and I was too busy managing the portfolio of Fidelity & Guaranty Life.?? The moral is: watch free cash flow.

2) Probably the ugliest incident in managing money for Fidelity & Guaranty was when the management of F&G decided to try to buy the structured settlement liabilities of Confederation Life.? Big block, five potential buyers.?? St. Paul had a rule: we don’t outsource asset management.? Sadly, the chief actuary, against our admonitions allowed for reinsurance treaties that outsourced asset management.

During the conference call to legitimate the offer that we would make, several things happened:

a) F&G management accused St. Paul management of being bureaucrats, not businessmen.

b) St. Paul management told F&G management that they were ignoring the rules.

c) I informed both sides that we were all gentlemen here, and that the tone of discussion was not worthy of real businessmen.

d) The CEO of F&G eventually broke off the call, calling the St. Paul folks bureaucrats, rather than businessmen, and saying that they killed a good deal.

Personally, I think he said this to save face with his employees.? Also, the deal was marginal at best.? We would have had to take a lot of risk to make the deal work.? But F&G would not listen to us.

3) I liked buying seasoned bonds, because they were more predictable.? Problem: you could not buy them in size.? Buying bonds in the aftermarket is typically picking at scraps.? Face it — most bond buyer want to hold their bonds for a while.? Aside from the few that sell for a quick profit, most bond investors hold on for a long time.? But I would pick up scraps.? Enough scraps, and you have some decent positions.

If you do find a seasoned bond selling at a reasonable price, buy it in, subject to the advice of your credit analyst.

4) Regarding mortgage bonds, remember that default and prepayment are dual.? Debtors divide up into three groups: a) Very solvent, they will easily pay off their debts, and if there is an opportunity to refinance their debt, they will take it.? b) Solvent. They don’t have a lot of margin, but they can pay their debts if nothing serious goes wrong. c) We did not deserve the loan.? We will fail with high probability in the next year.

Ideally, if you want the best yield out of a bunch of consumer lending assets, you want a lot of the middle group.? Not the highest credit quality, but likely to pay off, and not so likely to prepay.? There is a hierarchy:

  • Best: pay,
  • Next best: prepay,
  • worst: don’t pay.

5) So as I learned about CMBS, I wondered about the interest only strip that many of the deals held — from my own testing, it had the credit properties of a BBB tranche at best, and a Single-B tranche at worst.? Sadly, because they had no principal to pay they were nominally rated AAA, and so the firm I worked for (not my area) crammed them into Stable value plans.? Because I had done the credit stress testing, I knew this, and resisted their use in my own portfolios.

But this is another example where accounting rules have led us afoul.? Nominal principal should be implied to “interest only” obligations.? “Principal only” obligations should have implied interest.

That’s all for now.? I will finish up in the last segment, probably on Monday.

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Currency Wars

 

  • Battling the unknowns of currency devaluation | Reuters http://t.co/3kiN75eT A tough game to play, particularly w/changed policy in Japan $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • This is what a currency war looks like http://t.co/ibWgIZTg Japan is leading the #currencywar by no longer sterilizing monetary policy $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • The Dark Side of Japan’s Creating Inflation http://t.co/3O384dKU Risk is interest rates rise and Japan can’t finance itself. #tippingpoint Feb 07, 2013
  • Japan Inc.?s appreciation of the yen?s depreciation http://t.co/zdYFkcYR Japanese stocks rally as their exports get relatively cheaper $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Falling yen set to spark renewed currency wars http://t.co/1QXtUFoA Japan has finally “thrown the hammer down.” No more sterilization $$ Feb 05, 2013

 

LBOs

?

  • Dell?s largest outside shareholder thinks it?s worth $10 more a share – Quartz http://t.co/1gr8dTZb Let Southeastern et al bid 4 control $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • The Three Scariest Letters for Bondholders: L-B-O | Fox Business http://t.co/wEEHVJUR Note: junk bonds r protected from this, not invt grade Feb 09, 2013
  • New Worry for Bondholders: LBOs http://t.co/KumxFjws Company is cheap & has good Bal Sheet, it could LBO, harming current bondholders $$ Feb 04, 2013

?

Pensions

?

  • Danger Seen in Pension Fund Cuts on Abe Inflation http://t.co/wDu6fWjE Guess what? Inflation can harm pensioners. Sad 4 them. $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Pension Funds Cut Back On Commodity Indexes http://t.co/ZSvFgIoG Hoarding not a panacea, also, can get clipped on the roll $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • The Asset Mix (Stocks-Bonds) will make the Difference – 2 many Bonds Mr Abe? http://t.co/AOHm6p5X On pension asset allocation globally $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Baby Boomers Sicker Than Parents? Generation, Study Finds http://t.co/Xy7VIs0n Will live longer too; big reason to reshape Medicare $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Americans Rip Up Retirement Plans http://t.co/s5UARuld Nearly 2/3rds of Those Between 45 & 60 Plan Delays, Steep Rise From 2 Yrs Ago $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Low Rates Force Companies to Pour Cash Into Pensions http://t.co/32JNXekQ Low long rates push pension liabilities higher, req $$ payment Feb 04, 2013

?

High Yield

 

  • US High Yield Bonds: HYG On the support http://t.co/Gcj35TAJ In order 4 HY 2 rally from here, need dumb buyers 2 apply leverage $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Fed?s Stein: Signs of Overheating in Credit Markets http://t.co/TAT7QcwB Junk yields less than in June 2007. Replace CDO bid w/Fed $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Two Things about High-Yield Bonds Investors Must Understand Today http://t.co/w3n4IODi Low yields & spread relatives & high $$ prices Feb 07, 2013
  • A Mad Rush Could Be Coming In The Corporate Credit Markets http://t.co/KFGkM3gQ Possible, but it depends on how levered investors are $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • No, there probably isn?t a bond bubble http://t.co/92p5SJBz Misses key question: how much debt is being issued to acquire other debts? $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • US Higher Yield Bonds: A Corrective Update http://t.co/RITd5UGl Corrections may be happening w/ both credit & high-quality long-duration $$ Feb 04, 2013

 

 

S&P Lawsuit

?

  • State Lawsuits Could Add to S&P Exposure http://t.co/oQSwfYFR Attorneys General for states become profit centers; opportunistic thieves Feb 07, 2013
  • Wrong: Levitt Says McGraw-Hill ?Foolish? to Not Settle S&P Lawsuit http://t.co/dEL4g1ja There’s a good chance that S&P will win, y give up Feb 07, 2013
  • S&P Lawsuit Undermined by SEC Rules That Impede Competition http://t.co/GCUE01zz Will not be simple for the govt to win its case $$ #FTL Feb 07, 2013
  • S&P Lawsuit Portrays CDO Sellers as Duped Victims http://t.co/rAI69G1G Stretching truth; CDO sellers knew credit better than agencies $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • S&P feels Justice’s lash, but can law ever conquer greed? http://t.co/SVDZVZtG Diffcult 2 single out people/firms 2 prosecute in big crisis Feb 05, 2013

?

Companies

 

  • Top NY court throws Travelers asbestos award into question http://t.co/GAujEmCH Case started in 1948, when USF&G insured Western Asbestos Feb 08, 2013
  • Buffett?s Son Says He?s Prepared Whole Life for Berkshire Role http://t.co/xYWVlMu8 As Chairman, Howard will be “cultural guardian.” $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • San Francisco Gasoline Rises as Tesoro Seen Cutting Rates http://t.co/4Rmvbcz1 It’s tough when state governments discourage refineries $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Bond insurers aren’t the only winners in Rakoff’s Flagstar ruling http://t.co/6A2IICLD All can rely on reps & warranties of mtge origin8rs Feb 07, 2013
  • Berkshire-Insured Muni Sees Good Demand http://t.co/yKX1lGPy Nothing amazing; some $BRK.B businesses r part of the development borrowing Feb 07, 2013
  • Life Insurer CFOs Say Their Financial Models Fall Short: Survey http://t.co/zJ3f2DJc Surprising, another reason 2b bearish on life ins Feb 07, 2013
  • BlackRock Cautious as Sales End Dollar Bond Rally: China Credit http://t.co/4LZDSoMf Questions over credit quality, maybe 2 much supply $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • Herbalife Drops After Report of Law-Enforcement Probe http://t.co/zC0a9GGv $HLF rises today. $$ Worries over being named “pyramid scheme” Feb 04, 2013
  • Was the AIG Rescue Legal? http://t.co/LUTVHQa9 Of course not. Gov’t should not play favorites; emergencies b a DIP lender of last resort Feb 02, 2013

 

US Politics & Policy

 

  • House Speaker: Washington Has to Address Spending http://t.co/lZcQcinD Yes it does, but will the Senate and President ratify that? $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Party Eyes ‘Red-State Model’ to Drive Republican Revival http://t.co/qrlp6Zn5 First balance budget on an accrual basis; no state does $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • House Leaders Weigh US Spending Bill Below $1T http://t.co/0nBcoURd Good luck w/Senate & President on that, you will need it $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Study Says States Lose Billions in Offshore Tax Avoidance http://t.co/qTnlUpTX Just an effect of federal tax policy, which needs change $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • The Fed?s Worst Fear http://t.co/nanNt52c Losing control of long interest rates; the bond market will eventually trump the Fed $$ Feb 04, 2013

 

Market Impact

?

  • Americans Are Tapping Into Home Equity Again http://t.co/gLLrlDEx Does this mean a return to the reckless equity withdrawals? Likely not $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Banks Should Defer Bonuses for Up to 10 Years, Jenkins Says http://t.co/udabGhNT Better that banks become partnerships; creates caution Feb 08, 2013
  • Insiders now aggressively bearish http://t.co/vWogX2LF Last Fri: sell-to-buy ratio for NYSE-listed shares listed stood at 9.20-to-1 $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • SP500 Complacent Divergence – Risk Factors http://t.co/CPqaNYY4 Decelerating earnings growth threatens valuations. Econ surprises falling 2 Feb 08, 2013
  • Interdealer Brokers Emerge as Key Enablers in Libor Scandal http://t.co/bTgMtUOa & http://t.co/yBo7oxKJ Them & Rain Man Tom Hayes $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Schwab Unveils Game-Changing Commission-Free ETF Platform http://t.co/yqCaunnJ Part of the ETF’s fees go to $SCHW . No free lunch here $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • H-P Aside, Corporate Splits Are Wholly Worth Investors? While http://t.co/e9dptR0E Managements gain new focus; Behemoths lack true mgmt $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • U.S. to Offer Floating-Rate Notes Within a Year http://t.co/eXCUd3Ni Money-market funds take heart; yield (w/spread duration risk!) $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Small lenders ride US mortgage wave as big banks cut back http://t.co/KbACkvJk Interesting 2c little independent mortgage brokers return $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • America’s Baby Bust http://t.co/CaWPjZVU Heard on Radio C-SPAN yd http://t.co/Ow86Jsfs ?Economies don’t work well when popul shrinks $$ Feb 02, 2013

?

Rest of the World

?

  • Mind the Liquidity Gap – Credit Gap http://t.co/m2xTMEIs 3 factors: global monetary policy, global credit supply & global credit demand $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • German Hope French Despair and EU Rescue: PMIs http://t.co/qioLvblN Eurozone PMIs r rising, but economies r still contracting $$ #France Feb 07, 2013
  • Basel Seen Rotten in Denmark as Banks Bypassed http://t.co/HX9a6vOI Denmark has many covered mtge bonds; Basel doesn’t care much 4them $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Shades of ’80s for Japan’s Stocks http://t.co/68rhfLmX What, Japanese stocks can go up after the demographic dividend has faded? Feb 07, 2013
  • Desperate Greeks scuffle at free food handout http://t.co/XpQUEBMM Total desperation. Democracy started there, and it may end there too $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Canadians back2borrowing: avg consumer debt hits new hi http://t.co/wtSpy1pB overall debt low | cred: evergreen http://t.co/ndpBH0Ch Feb 07, 2013
  • Last tweet derives from this article http://t.co/wjSwNztf I believe in freedom, and small biz capitalism, with equality 4 all. $$ Feb 06, 2013
  • We need Obama/Hollande 2create economic barriers average people can’t surmount, so the clever rich can get richer. Cynical, but true $$ Feb 06, 2013
  • ECB Executive Board Member Asmussen: ‘German Interest Rates Will Rise Again’ http://t.co/oIJZtFtK Thinks *real* interest rates will rise $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Top Iranians Trade Barbs in Rare Public Feud http://t.co/W1uR6M1p Corruption is endemic to Iran; rare 4 the mafiosi 2 fink on each other Feb 05, 2013

 

Other

 

  • An Insider’s Guide to Counterfeiting Wine – Businessweek http://t.co/SoVp0OrF 3 ways to counterfeit expensive wines & how to avoid them $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Most Australian Wine Exports Ship in Giant Plastic Bladders http://t.co/jL1S9KLF ?We don?t ship glass around the world, we ship wine.? $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Super Bowl Blackout Caused by Faulty Relay, Entergy Says http://t.co/GKd5619I That was what I guessed; weak spot in many power grids $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Asteroid to Traverse Earth?s Satellite Zone, NASA Says http://t.co/ZnpmCxXD Interesting we only get one week’s notice on the near miss $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • What Abraham Lincoln Liked About Richard III http://t.co/oAp8PQjg Lincoln was Shakespeare buff; 1 controversial man’s thoughts on another Feb 08, 2013
  • Lease Surprise in Stuyvesant Town http://t.co/O7DQsILq “clause that allows landlord to increase the rent in the middle of the lease” $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Nine Questions for Peter Levine, Andreessen Horowitz?s Enterprise Dude http://t.co/yiubWsqj How SDN commoditizes much special hardware $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • On Pins and Needles: Stylist Turns Ancient Hairdo Debate on Its Head http://t.co/RgrZqc80 Kinda of a quirky story, but interesting $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • ‘They Owe It to Me’: FBI Identifies Top Email Phrases Used by Fraudsters – Compliance Week http://t.co/9FtlTkEH Set up filters, compliance Feb 06, 2013
  • Legacy of Benjamin Graham: http://t.co/GztBNt53 via @youtube In last minute, BG anticipates the Efficient Markets Hypothesis years ahead $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Legacy of Benjamin Graham: http://t.co/GztBNt53 via @youtube Fascinating video w/Buffett, Kahn (2), Schloss, & other students of his $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • US Construction Jobs – A very Constructive Story http://t.co/Gqy8YIU0 Construction jobs coming back, looks like a dead cat bounce $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • Sending electronic money to friends catching on http://t.co/zRBh8tkT Creating next great avenue 4 money laundering; cheap & convenient $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • Hitler Awakes in 2011 Berlin, Becomes YouTube Hero http://t.co/ore3XtWB Hard 4 me 2 believe. Does humor have any limits anymore? Funny $$ Feb 04, 2013

?

Replies & Retweets

  • @dpinsen 16x deteriorating free cash flow @ $24/sh. There’s some bluster there. Wouldn’t want to be a bondholder here $DELL $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: Wait, I’m wrong. Didn’t look far enough — they have 8.5% of shares, but 7.5% of votes. Onl… http://t.co/18jIZ94S Feb 08, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: Here: http://t.co/a3SdyNFq http://t.co/4OBGCIp0 Feb 08, 2013
  • ‘ @ampressman Thanks, Aaron. Reading it now. http://t.co/aGpdRr8R Good stuff. SE recently bought more http://t.co/UGh12nkp $$ $DELL Feb 08, 2013 ?(This tweet was wrong, SE has been a seller of $DELL shares, and even recently?)
  • Owns 7.5%, what could they b thinking? $$ RT @BloombergNews: BREAKING: Dell holder Southeastern Asset plans ‘All Options’ to stop deal Feb 08, 2013
  • Worth the read RT @cate_long: Is the U.S. growing, or just issuing debt? – #MuniLand http://t.co/KLB1838k Feb 08, 2013
  • Seems reasonable to me $$ RT @TFMkts: @AlephBlog the high yield market is on cusp of some stop losses getting triggered Feb 08, 2013
  • @GaelicTorus Did not know that, thanks Feb 08, 2013
  • Small caps +7% http://t.co/ewRvffTb $$ RT @credittrader: Gentle Reminder Japan Nikkei 225 +0.75% YTD in USD http://t.co/cxxhjMoG Feb 07, 2013
  • @anatadmati Twitter is too small for this. Read: http://t.co/JDnLfhJ5 & http://t.co/yo7C05d0 Biggest problem isn’t capital, but liquidity $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • @Nonrelatedsense @credittrader Thanks, missed that Feb 07, 2013
  • @BlandDexter In a word, yes. Feb 07, 2013
  • @The_Analyst What floors me are professional investors that don’t read the prospectus the first time they analyze a new type of investment. Feb 07, 2013
  • @SapienQuis A lot of investment banks got pinned w/crud they could not sell whether due to secondary trading or origination Feb 07, 2013
  • @The_Analyst Yes, they did have staff. If u r a professional firm, you must independent vet out credit quality; ignore rating read writeup Feb 07, 2013
  • Well done! RT @jasonzweigwsj: 2 things about high-yield bonds investors should understand today, from @DavidSchawel http://t.co/EYo8KSEQ $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • @anatadmati A better idea would be double liability, where mgmt & directors lose their capital before shareholders do. Change incentives Feb 07, 2013
  • @anatadmati At current margins, banks could not earn their cost of capital w/30% E/A. Banks & credit would shrink a lot -> crisis Feb 07, 2013
  • @DavidSchawel Where will it be? Feb 06, 2013
  • Bondholders will get badly hurt $$ http://t.co/i7Fxa10p RT @DougKass: HPQ mulling a break up. $HPQ Feb 05, 2013
  • It’s starting $$ RT @LisaCNBC: The Japanese are going to overdo it and create an inflation problem. #Yen will spike in 2013. @PeterSchiff Feb 05, 2013
  • @TFMkts People made absurd predictions about capital mkts off of the experience 1982-2000, culmination ing tech bubble / lost decade $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Mersenne Primes RT @motokorich: Largest Prime Number Discovered, and it’s 17,425,170 digits long. http://t.co/U8GzYFj1 via @sciam Feb 05, 2013
  • @TFMkts Would be interesting 2c a firm try that. The wind seems to still b blowing the wrong way there, w/discount rates so low. Feb 05, 2013
  • He was/is a bright guy $$ RT @munilass: Picking on S&P just isn’t as much fun without @EconOfContempt around. Feb 05, 2013
  • RT @LaurenLaCapra: “big exchanges therefore stand to gain tremendously from even a relatively small shift twd futures & away from sw … Feb 05, 2013
  • “I only want to add one thing: its not what pundits say that matters, it is what people rely on economically… http://t.co/zAPlxIHU $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • RT @moorehn: Pffft. MT @nycjim: Washington Post says it, too, was victim of hacking attack that appeared to originate in China. http://t … Feb 03, 2013
  • Good marketing kills bad ideas, people & products $$ RT @MattVATech: Marketing is never a substitute for substance. Feb 03, 2013
  • “Only if you think that by waiting a little while you might have higher yields to invest at. Can’t?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Vt16DKeU $$ Feb 02, 2013
  • “Hi, KD… my bond mandate is unconstrained, so I just aim for total returns. Right now I am pretty?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/4x41D4D2 Feb 02, 2013

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FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 77 retweets received, 4 new listings, 86 new followers, 81 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Feb 07, 2013

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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel
  • God gave proverbs to the Jews; Epigrams were of the Romans. Now we do the same through tweets, why do I sense bad omens? #badpoetry Feb 02, 2013

 

Credit

 

  • One of Warren Buffett’s Greatest Trades http://t.co/wnU2g1z4 Comparing Buffett winding up his partnership to lack of distressed opps now $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Be Very Afraid When Fear Disappears From Markets http://t.co/t8wKalsQ Low implied vols, low yields, High Q-ratio & CAPE10 $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • How a $91 million loan on the Marlins ballpark will cost Miami-Dade $1.2B http://t.co/F2u2rZbP Poway-style debt in Florida $$ cc @munilass Jan 31, 2013
  • Big, Rich, and Wobbly: Wall Street Banks Are Still Sicker Than You Think http://t.co/irKmQqLy Mohamed A. El-Erian explains the problems $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • In US Debt We Trust- The Transfer from Private to Public Debt http://t.co/2nq1pGCn Total debt hasn’t declined much from peak, gov debt up $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Chavez?s 681% Returns Mean Socialism Buoys Goldman http://t.co/IYPD6fEJ Give Chavez credit, at least his country paid what they owed $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • 4 Reasons the Junk Bond Rally Will Continue in 2013 http://t.co/r7SF05NJ Check my comments. I like this site, but disagree w/the thesis $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Pimco to DoubleLine Leveraging as Yields Retreat http://t.co/LBUsmfQ6 Here comes leverage; PIMCO and Doubleline gear up to get returns $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • US Not So High Yield Bonds : “It’s Starting To Feel A Lot Like 2007” http://t.co/PZ0dOyzC More like 2005-6, we need more leverage 4 2007 $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • The US High-Yield Corporate Bond Conundrum http://t.co/w0wlsn7s & this leads to buybacks & M&A. It all depends on how aggressive it gets $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Investors Pivot Back to Banks http://t.co/ixvSSGf8 Bank bonds are likely safe, the stocks r another matter $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Too Soon to Celebrate for Europe’s Banks http://t.co/cKT6OXli Let them deal with the mountains of bad debt & restructure them $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Can anyone tell me why HY loan defaults are up, while HY bond defaults are down? http://t.co/gxfVA5za Usually they move in tandem $$ Jan 29, 2013
  • And very few LP CEFs at discounts, which is also true for HY bond CEFs. Preferred funds look a little more promising, but still pricey $$ Jan 29, 2013
  • Looking at bank floating rate closed end funds, a few r at high prems 2 NAV, such that if u bot the trust 2 liquidate would get 0% return $$ Jan 29, 2013

 

Companies

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  • Newell Rubbermaid Goes After $127B Health Market http://t.co/lcarSSmS Interesting 2c consumer prods comps go after the healthcare mkt $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Chevron Realigns Its Gas and Midstream Organization http://t.co/u1WoIl2Y Sort of thing u do, prior to splitting co into 2 | FD: + $CVX $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Good 4 refiners $$ http://t.co/q3lVpoI5 US crude oil inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year Jan 31, 2013
  • Container Shipping Faces Merger Urge as Money Dries Up http://t.co/7Kur08t6 Capital-intensive biz is tough when financing not plentiful $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Oh, Full disclosure two tweets ago, I am long Valero, $VLO Jan 30, 2013
  • $ACE ?s Greenberg Asks ?Why R We Doing Guidance?? http://t.co/dKtvopDX Evan has impressed me after leaving $AIG | Chip off the ol block $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Valero Looking at Rail, Barges to Ship Canadian Crude to Gulf http://t.co/diLQGBZC Cheap oil in middle of N. America wants2get2the Gulf $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Singer Chases Icahn With Stake in Cheapest Oil Company Hess http://t.co/Hk4ynp6q Worth reading 2 understand activist investors $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Fund Outflows? Blame the ‘Cliff’ http://t.co/QOq13Jn8 $TROW is a good firm. If anyone should not get fund outflows, they would b one $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Fannie To Allow Walkaways by On-Time Borrowers http://t.co/Nnx00VfR & so taxpayers will pick up the losses for walkaways on FNMA mtges $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Software Firms Find Tax Advantages http://t.co/5G2QXmmD A good transfer-pricing accountant is worth his weight in gold. $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Apple Reverse Convertibles: How Brokerage Firms Pervert Everything http://t.co/4ugTpgTe Don’t buy structured notes. Listen2 @reformedbroker Jan 29, 2013
  • How Apple’s Fall Bit Bondholders, Too http://t.co/60fmfhle Structured notes: Wall St. gives u a small increase in yield & lots more risk $$ Jan 27, 2013

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Central Banking

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  • Japan’s lessons for America’s budget warriors http://t.co/ftUKEJPa Think this might be the start of unsterilized monetary policy globally $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • What finally convinced me to sell my long bonds 30 bps lower than now was market’s reaction to the Fed in December. http://t.co/vQONtgBC $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • The Fed?s Actions Are Counterproductive http://t.co/THDwyijc If printing $$ or issuing credit could bring prosperity, it would be here now Jan 31, 2013
  • 2 early to celebrate ECB’s balance sheet reduction http://t.co/srQiQJ4Q @soberlook right again: off-Bal Sheet gtees dwarf BS improvement $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Fed Policy Is a Drag on the Economy http://t.co/T3Wx0ezh I have argued the same here: http://t.co/l7MyjNLM John Taylor 4 Fed Chairman $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Anyone else notice that all FOMC meetings are now 2 days long? Gives them more time to come up with creative errors in monetary policy $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • The Ghosts of 1994 http://t.co/Hdf2UFLi 2 things are different now: Fed was hawkish in ’94, few expected prepays 2 decrease so much then $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • What Happened To Markets The Last 15 Times The Fed Tightened… http://t.co/zq4TRGxg Long article, but instructive on tightenings $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • With Each Central Bank Move, Nations Are Impoverished More http://t.co/70lBSDeQ Combined actions of Central banks create global infation $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • USD-JPY: Short Term Reversal? – Hara-kiri http://t.co/K9N3Viom Japan leads the race to the bottom. Will they stop sterilizing asset buys? $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • There are two things lacking that were present in 1994: a hawkish Fed, and expectations that RMBS prepays… http://t.co/DHekaqIN Jan 29, 2013
  • The Unintended Consequences Of The Greatest Economic Experiment http://t.co/0hEH3VS1 The Fed won’t admit it, but it is flying blind $$ Jan 28, 2013

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Rest of the World

 

  • Greek Companies Test Bond Waters as Exit Risks Fade http://t.co/fOgUn41S I guess every dog has its day. Sleep w/dogs, wake up w/fleas $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Best Stock Pickers Trawl Frontier Markets as US Funds Lose http://t.co/yfAKqI7t When mgrs seek unusual venues 4 investing, risk is up $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Deutsche Bank Improved Its Capital Ratio By Changing Risk Measures http://t.co/jWTc73pR Risk mgmt is easy when you can alter standards $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Spain’s crisis strategy under fire as economy buckles again http://t.co/Qeaeotx0 The ECB?s Mario Draghi is ?itching? 2buy Club Med bonds $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Japan?s Government Proposes First Spending Cut in 7 Years http://t.co/DHpOH3II The journey to fiscal sanity begins w/a single cut $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Canadian Mega Housing Bubble http://t.co/GwbpWMGs Quietly, the average Canadian HH has accumulated more debt than US & UK HHs. Who knew? $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Chinese currency 2 loosen exchange rate: business chief http://t.co/q6zNLSGh Easier said than done; is China willing 2 absorb volatility $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Scandal of Italy’s Monte Paschi means questions for Draghi http://t.co/mufcYFkI Had some reg oversight over Monte dei Paschi solvency $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • The Super Bowl, Chicken Wings and the FED – a Risky Mix ? http://t.co/EDCV958k The Fed has no idea what it is doing, the same as in 2007 $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Why We?re at the End of Cheap China http://t.co/kSW2tbWG Argues there is more consumption going on in China, hidden in coprporate perks $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada? http://t.co/GgUfyM74 Interesting 2c France, Sweden, HK, & Singapore on the list $$ Jan 26, 2013

 

Speculation

 

  • Forget the ‘Rotation’, Here’s the Source of the Money Pouring Into Stocks http://t.co/tn4Dxs39 ~$30B of special dividends get reinvested $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • ML Fund Managers Survey – Jan 2013 http://t.co/GR19wML6 Professionals r hedging less equity risk, flexible capital increasingly committed $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Bill Gross: Be very afraid of the markets http://t.co/k7Ouhax3 Favors: Currencies of creditworthy countries, short bonds, gold, HQ debts $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Whan financial institutions start buying gold as an inflation hedge, only 2 possibilities remain: a top in gold prices, or hyperinflation $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • SP500 Earnings Optimisim : But let’s revise them lower! http://t.co/bPXqFSos We should expect actual earnings 2 come in below projections $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Upside Risks http://t.co/AuT58IEC @reformedbroker gives us the bull’s case; I’m agnostic on market direction; think long yields will rise $$ Jan 29, 2013

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Goodwill Is Bad News for US Assets http://t.co/8ctt5UeQ Not all goodwill is bad; if it produces extra cash deserves 2b treated as asset $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • It’s the Stocks You Don’t Own That Matter http://t.co/M3pDaeFl @herbgreenberg talks about new Forensic Accounting ETF $FLAG | Good idea $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Your ETF Owns Too Little Amazon, &Other Index Quirks http://t.co/UOZINiEc Float-weighting underweights ?owner-operators? which do better $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Asset Allocation & Rebalancing: (Still) Competitive Together http://t.co/FrLCygAY Rebalancing global value-weighted index: good strategy $$ Jan 31, 2013

 

US Economics

 

  • US GDP Q4 2012 Weaker with a Strong Mix http://t.co/ZmVlZZ52 In Q3, few talked about the weak mix, but yes, result better than headline # $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Contracts in Fourth Quarter http://t.co/dmKSsHlf After getting upside surprises, shouldn’t we get one down? $$ Jan 30, 2013

 

US Politics

 

  • US government warns of hack threat 2 network gear http://t.co/lZvMgyOe Disable feature known as Universal Plug & Play on your network $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • How President Obama Lost His Shirt to John Boehner http://t.co/VZwfxqiw Interesting argument; not sure it’s correct. Seemed like a tie $$ Jan 28, 2013
  • Women?s Path to Ground Combat Strewn With Obstacles http://t.co/DkVG9UDM Only the strongest ~5% of women will be able 2b in combat $$ Jan 28, 2013
  • Bipartisan Immigration Plan Counters Republican Orthodoxy http://t.co/nL9Q8RFp Has some chance of passing 4 the 1st time in 6 years $$ Jan 28, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Psst…This Is What Your Co-Worker Is Paid http://t.co/3lUOLmT9 I’m not sure this is a good idea. What someone is paid is personal $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Bombarded by Ads, Few Drivers Switch Car Insurer http://t.co/LsyjydyM Average ppl have an agent they trust until they get burned $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Backyard Farming Gets Fancy http://t.co/0FqwgxRr High-End ‘Homesteaders’ Want Pricey, Stylish Tools; The $1,300 Chicken Coop $$ #noway Jan 30, 2013
  • 15-Year-Old Creates Test for Pancreatic Cancer http://t.co/qrRalNtv This fellow beat the child of a friend of mine who came in third $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Derivatives trader: ‘The trouble is, regulators are idiots’ http://t.co/PTJpQe9G In general, true. This is why dumb regulation is better $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Liability Issues Create Potholes on the Road to Driverless Cars http://t.co/VDVux7vV If a driverless car has an accident who pays? $$ Jan 28, 2013

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Wrong

?

  • Wrong:Piracy and Fraud Propelled the US Industrial Revolution http://t.co/JONyDRPd Doubt that explains more than 3% of American Success $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Wrong: Alan Blinder:Everything You Think You Know About the Crisis Is Wrong http://t.co/gTVjTm4t TARP a failure; encourages moral hazard $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Wrong: Morgan Stanley Buys Argentine Stocks as YPF Deal Lures BlackRock http://t.co/MdXXq1uu Until expropriation ends, avoid Argentina $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Wrong: Bitcoin?s Gains May Fuel Central Bank Concerns http://t.co/bXNdgp9c Chart here: http://t.co/Xaz8cxbh Thin speculative market $$ Jan 28, 2013

?

Comments & Retweets

 

  • RT @japhychron: The Real, and Simple, Equation That Killed Wall Street | Guest Blog, Scientific American Blog Network http://t.co/9YDmZu … Feb 02, 2013
  • RT @BankersUmbrella: @AlephBlog …buying on margin at 5y high in NYSE, fund inflows higher than just before techbubble burst, net sales … Feb 01, 2013
  • You can say that again $$ RT @paulnovell: @AlephBlog unless you own an east coast refinery. Mid continent refiners are killing it Jan 31, 2013
  • @GlennBusch I almost moved to Poway to work for the last remaining large life insurer in San Diego; Offer fell through, company failed later Jan 31, 2013
  • @steve13smith So how are you doing at Minyanville & otherwise? Jan 31, 2013
  • @steve13smith Are you my friend from RealMoney days? Good to hear from you. Yes, I signed up on a Wednesday. It’s a useful summary to me. Jan 31, 2013
  • You can say that again RT @credittrader: $SPY vs $VIX – oops – http://t.co/ARvpNfRP Jan 30, 2013
  • Feels like it to me. RT @StockTwits: Has Value Turned a Corner? http://t.co/GQnUMCcw via @eddyelfenbein $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • @RossJaklik I don’t market. People ask me to manage their money. They get a clone of how I invest my own money. If that is not legitimate… Jan 30, 2013
  • @RossJaklik @faithmight @abnormalreturns In order to receive fees for investing OPM, you must pass the regulatory hurdles Jan 30, 2013
  • @RossJaklik @faithmight @abnormalreturns And to manage OPM legitimately, u have to start a firm like $TROW $LM $JNS $BEN $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • @wesbury @cabaum1 I want to get rid of the neoclassical economics monoculture at the Fed, & replace w/Actuaries & Value Investors $$ #dreams Jan 30, 2013
  • @prchovanec Enjoy it, friend. I have 8 kids, 5 adopted. Every age is fun, & has sorrows. Enjoy your kids while u can; they grow up fast $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Little kids r so cute $$ RT @prchovanec: 3-year-old son William on new twin baby sisters: “Can they talk? What did they say?” Jan 30, 2013
  • Thanks, have ~3 more to go $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Great “101-level” series in the last few days on insurance investing over on @AlephBlog #ff Jan 30, 2013
  • +2 RT @niubi: ?@prchovanec: Twin baby girls Alice and Rachel Chovanec born at Amcare hospital in Beijing at 6:45am this morning!? Congrats Jan 30, 2013
  • premiums r so migh my nose is bleeding! $$ The RT @groditi: HY and Levered Loan CEF discount snapshot http://t.co/HH8tyX7x Jan 29, 2013
  • “You are not going to get as much from me, then. Not going 2 use Stocktwits as my Twitter client.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/78eWsIVF $$ Jan 29, 2013
  • +1 RT @allstarcharts: Here is one chart that bothers me: $IWM vs $DJIA spread peaked weeks ago as $SPY makes new highs http://t.co/Bt9c6mlB Jan 29, 2013
  • @aenbrnood @GuldbergPeter I think both of your ideas have merit, thanks Jan 29, 2013
  • “”As for the part of the budget that won’t take care of itself, President Obama fought an ugly and?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/ueQBGOkp $$ Jan 29, 2013
  • @prchovanec Leverage at each point in the chain of lending amplifies the impact of dodgy nonbank lending, esp when loans r short-dated Jan 29, 2013
  • A weakness in investment grade bonds RT @Convertbond: $DELL 5 Year CDS, Lesson on what an LBO can do to a credit.. http://t.co/foe7W2gf $$ Jan 28, 2013
  • @Danny_5079 That covenant is only common with junk bonds, though a few BBB bonds have it. That’s all. Jan 28, 2013
  • @Danny_5079 via arbitrage. Should have no effect on the deal, unless the bonds had a covenant requiring buying the bonds @ 101% in a buyout Jan 28, 2013
  • @Danny_5079 of the company & its pre-existing debt, thus leading to a decline in the value of debt, raising yield spreads. CDS reacts to it Jan 28, 2013
  • @Danny_5079 In a buyout debt is issued to finance the purchase that is equal or senior in terms of claim priority, reducing creditworthiness Jan 28, 2013
  • “They have to lure retail back in before the next bear?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/lCQ1ex1c Jan 27, 2013
  • “If the risk parity players r still levered long credit, then they r the CDO equity of this cycle. End will b ugly” http://t.co/uR8ji9Ty $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • My problem is this: we have a dysfunctional credit market where yields are too low, and protections are… http://t.co/7mYgP0VQ Jan 26, 2013

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 46 retweets received, 7 new listings, 87 new followers, 32 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 31, 2013

 

 

Redacted Version of the January 2013 Version of the FOMC Statement

Redacted Version of the January 2013 Version of the FOMC Statement

Posted on by David Merkel
December 2012 January 2013 Comments
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that growth in economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors. Shades GDP view down, finally.

Remember when the FOMC cited the Tsunami in Japan for economic weakness that would soon go away?? More grasping at straws.
Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. Employment has continued to expand at a moderate pace but the unemployment rate remains elevated. No real change.

So long as discouraged workers increase, this is a meaningless statement.
Household spending has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has shown further improvement. Shades up their of business investment
Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee?s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee?s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. No change.? TIPS are showing rising inflation expectations since the last meeting. 5y forward 5y inflation implied from TIPS is now at 2.86%.

The FOMC is wrong on inflation.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. No change. Any time they mention the ?statutory mandate,? it is to excuse bad policy.
The Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.? Emphasizes that the FOMC will keep doing the same thing and expect a different result than before. Monetary policy is omnipotent on the asset side, right?
Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. Although strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, the Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. Shades up their views of the financial markets.
The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective. No change. CPI is at 1.7% now, yoy, so that is quite a statement.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month No change.

Does not mention how the twist will affect those that have to fund long-dated liabilities.

Wonder how long it will take them to saturate agency RMBS market?

 
The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. No real change.? Operation Twist continues.? Additional absorption of long Treasuries commences.? Fed will make the empty ?monetary base? move from $3 to 4 Trillion by the end of 2013.
Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. No change.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. No change. Useless comment.
If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. No change.
In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. No change.? The FOMC promises what it cannot know or deliver.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. No change.

Promises that they won?t change until the economy strengthens.? Good luck with that.
In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee?s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee?s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. Not a time limit but economic limits from inflation and employment.

Just ran the calculation ? TIPS implied forward inflation one year forward for one year ? i.e., a rough forecast for 2014, is currently 2.41%.? Here?s the graph.? The FOMC has only 0.09% of margin in their calculation if they are being honest, which I doubt.

 
The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance.   The inaccurate sentence is deleted.
In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. New sentence.? Giving yourself an out clause on the hard-and-fast promises made above?
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. No change.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. No change
Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed the asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations. Esther George takes up the thankless task of telling the FOMC that they are doing more harm than good.

?

Comments

  • I really think the FOMC lives in a fantasy world.? The economy is not improving materially, and inflation is rising. Note that the CPI is close their 2.5% line in the sand.? TIPS-implied inflation 1X1 (one year ahead for one year) is 2.41%, and 5X5 is 2.86% annualized.
  • Current proposed policy is an exercise in wishful thinking.? Monetary policy does not work in reducing unemployment, and I think we should end the charade.
  • In my opinion, I don?t think holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt will have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself. When this policy doesn?t work, what will they do?
  • Also, the investment in Agency MBS should have limited impact because so many owners are inverted, or ineligible for financing backed by the GSEs, and implicitly the government, even with the recently announced refinancing changes.
  • The key variables on Fed Policy are capacity utilization, unemployment, inflation trends, and inflation expectations.? As a result, the FOMC ain?t moving rates up, absent increases in employment, or a US Dollar crisis.? Labor employment is the key metric.
  • GDP growth is not improving much if at all, and the unemployment rate improvement comes more from discouraged workers.

A Statement to Dr. Bernanke:

More debt will not get us out of this crisis.? The Great Depression ended when enough debts were compromised, paid off, or cancelled, which from my study is 1941, before World War two started.

Your policies further aid the growth of the budget deficit, and encourage malinvestment in housing and banking, two things in a high degree of oversupply.? The investments in MBS only help solvent borrowers on the low end of housing, who don?t really need the help.? Holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt does not have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself.

The problems with unemployment are structural, not cyclical.? Labor force participation rates continue to decline.? There is greater labor competition around the world, forcing down wages on the low end.? There is nothing that monetary policy can do to change this.? You can create stagflation through your policies, but not prosperity.

When inflation does arrive, the FOMC is going to find it very hard to raise Fed Funds or shrink its balance sheet.? The banks will not react well as you try to shrink, and the long rates that you have held down will react violently.

You haven?t thought through all of the ?second order? effects of your policy.? Even the ?first order? effects, which favor the rich over the poor, seem to elude you.? Assets rise, helping the rich.? Interest rates fall, helping the rich who can borrow.? Commodity prices rise, harming the poor.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result.? When will you realize that the policies of the Fed aren?t helping, and need to be abandoned?

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Central Banking

 

  • Records Show Fed Wavering in 2007 http://on.wsj.com/SgLPoG 4 all of their vaunted intelligence, the Fed was worried, but clueless in 2007 $$
  • Three Stages of Fed Grief: Key Quotes From 2007 http://t.co/X4ygwdqU Slowly realized the economy they overlevered was getting worse $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • Fed Concerned About Overheated Markets Amid Record Bond-Buying http://t.co/wDckfD77 The sourcerer’s apprentices note there is a problem $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Paul Moreno: Gold, Greenbacks and Inflation: A History and a Warning http://t.co/75M1jNRo Ppl forget the degree the Fed has debased $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Once you turn base money into short-term debt, can you go back? http://t.co/pG3gxBwA @interfluidity ideas getting deserved attention $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • First Shots Are Fired in Global ‘Currency War’ http://t.co/y6GJi0V5 Japan leads “race 2 the bottom.” Who will b first 2 stop sterilizing? $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Currency Moves? & Central Bank Bravado http://t.co/zt7BI1As Posit that the yen is falling due to war risks & Japan biz risks in China $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Abe Rocket-Start Lowers Sony Risk With Market Fuel http://t.co/J4cLgQKJ Loose monetary has spillover benefits 2 indebted corporations $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • I’ll grant this: the government always has some role in money, even commodity money like a gold standard… http://t.co/QtVI3oeC Jan 12, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Pressure Rises on China to Scrap One-Child Policy http://t.co/iDfZ0Ssl No better way 2 have a demographic crisis; change long overdue $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • Default Alarm Rings as Trust Loans Jump Sevenfold http://t.co/2tr1vFnq China is so messed up that it makes the Eurozone look good $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Singapore Curbs Industrial Property Sales to Avert Bubble http://t.co/vZQhsdya Increases bid-ask spread; can’t fight fundamentals $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Mongolia?s Erdenes TT Halts Coal Exports to Biggest Buyer China http://t.co/hoTHAxxZ Probably either gross malfeasance or bribery $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • European Dividends Tumble to Four-Year Low as CEOs Hoard http://t.co/D6YdzVqD Favor European Exporters over their Domestic companies $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Euro at 10-Month High Poses Economic Threat, Juncker Says http://t.co/bk0FsVEE The #currencywars continue. Rule: Beggar thy neighbor $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Russia Says World Is Nearing Currency War as Europe Joins http://t.co/OvVu0ZMH Accept export slowdown? Monetize debt? Stupid QE-like stuf? Jan 17, 2013
  • Rio Tinto CEO Steps Down http://t.co/lqWyRPES Every CEO should have etched on his wall: “Paying up 4 scale acquisitions is dumb” $$ $RIO Jan 17, 2013
  • China Capital Flow: Foreign Direct Dis-Investment http://t.co/V8erkuxL Foreign inv’t inflows falling, domestic inv’t outflows rising $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • China Starts Losing Edge as World’s Factory Floor http://t.co/pG7uOFqX SE Asia benefits as China becomes more expensive 2 operate in $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Norway Sees Deeper European Job Pain as Default Fears Recede http://t.co/ztbfvp0H Rising NOK makes exports less competitive &fewer jobs $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Often when FX vols spike it means something might break, like the SNB not able continue its EUR peg. But if… http://t.co/fydAlRSX Jan 16, 2013
  • HSBC needs 2 end its Ping An silence with simple answers http://t.co/8xVAWiHD much alleged insider deal information has been circulating $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Mainland alchemists turn damaged zinc into solid gold http://t.co/W4zu69k7 An example of how Chinese banking system papers over bad debts $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Rumor: large backlog of Chinese companies want to IPO, but having hard time slowing the required 2 years of rising earnings $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Neighbors Grow More Wary of China http://t.co/aYMUvLs2 Ex-pat Chinese moving in, looking a little graspy w/respect to resources, etc $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Mineworker Debt Mounts as South African Lending Booms http://t.co/hTkXyCTc There are few places in the world without debt overages $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Deutsche Bank Derivative Helped Monte Paschi Mask Losses http://t.co/PeqTdPBT Bad investing led to losses 2 hide. Enter Deutsche Bank $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • reaching for yield http://t.co/zFaWCA7h @researchpuzzler notes tight junk spreads, but + Ed Meigs & Dan Fuss r ?naysayers on junk credit $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Short-term Debt and Financial Crises: What we can learn from US Treasury Supply http://t.co/UG1RvuHm Qty issue ST fin’l sector debt->crisis Jan 17, 2013
  • 22 Insights From The Most Successful Investors In History http://t.co/4u3QVRJL Very nice assemblage of quotes from the best investors $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • [Will] the Bond Bubble Finally Burst? http://t.co/1c7hOX4W Synthesis of a variety of views: Yes, but not in the short-run… $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • FINRA to brokers: know your high-yield securities http://t.co/DJHC5NvT Intelligent words from FINRA; b able2show clients all possibilities Jan 16, 2013
  • The High Yield Market is “Completely Out of Control.” http://t.co/GBUfGOa9 Watch risky debt buyers; c if they need things 2go right2survive Jan 16, 2013
  • Gold Forecasters Splitting on Peak for Bull Market http://t.co/EIEgk2Al Most-accurate gold forecasters>price will probably peak in 2013 $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Whatever Happened 2 Good, Old-Fashioned Accountants? http://t.co/aFofQ4Mv @retheauditors explains y basic blocking&tackling go a long way $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Yale May Buy More Hedge Fund Assets After Favoring Cash http://t.co/D0cP9LDV Timing feels wrong here w/credit spreads tight & vol low $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Baupost Group Sitting On 116% Return From Madoff Claims http://t.co/u4MYuhJI Bankruptcy judge said ?seller?s remorse,? denied his effort $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Leeway on Repo Rules Is Cut Back http://t.co/B16EXZfR “…we’re basically saying all repos should be accounted for as borrowings,” $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Inside the Self-Driving Index Funds That Finish First http://t.co/XPEfHyE4 @jasonzweigwsj $BLK low fees, shares sec lending revenue $$ Jan 15, 2013
  • How2use Twitter & Facebook 2 make $$ from shares http://t.co/lXXw321E Just watch: this causes the next ‘flash crash’ h/t: @abnormalreturns Jan 14, 2013
  • KRS Spin Machine Is Smearing The Truth Again http://t.co/VGGSkxHX Kentucky Retirement Systems does not use RFPs -> “pay to play” @ KRS $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • US Not So High Yield Bonds : “It’s Starting To Feel A Lot Like 2007” http://t.co/QUGhAMqC Will supply grow, or will misfinancing start? $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • SP500 Revisited – Testing 1484/1500 zone and reversal after? http://t.co/8TMktTjD Argues for a correction in stocks in the near term $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Hedge-Fund Leverage Rises to Most Since 2004 in New Year http://t.co/rwFVhRmz H0: flexible $$ overallocated to stocks now> correction due Jan 14, 2013
  • 39% of Fund Managers Beat the S&P in 2012 http://t.co/xRx3Juik It was a growth year & not a value year. 48% would b the 10-yr average $$ Jan 13, 2013

 

Billionaires

 

  • I suppose Bloomberg could write a book about hidden billionaires, and call it “The Billionaire Next Door.” http://bloom.bg/WN9Jo8 ?#yeah $$
  • Erie Billionaire Hagen Revealed as Car Premiums Surge http://t.co/BsMEp8gu $ERIE interesting company w/a unique asset-lite biz model $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Hidden Billionaire Milking Saudi Dairy Fortune in Desert http://t.co/XAoRKBRp Bloomberg likes ‘outing’ obscure billionaires like this $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

Personal Finance

 

  • Why you can?t avoid dumb 401(k) mistakes http://t.co/fffPsn0k Plan sponsors chase hot managers & avoid passive options $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Behind the indexed annuity curtain http://t.co/Qo7RdSX9 Avoid. Surrender charges r long & high 2pay commission; opaque int crediting $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • One in four savers has 401(k) ?leakage? http://t.co/TRBsFfwx Retirement seems far away, but $$ needs r near, so ppl tap their 401(k)s Jan 16, 2013
  • Seven Resolutions to Get Your Nest Egg in Shape http://t.co/cqNqpxJF Good basic advice 4 ordinary people taking care of the nest egg $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • E-Filing and the Explosion in Tax-Return Fraud http://t.co/9SAE6oPL Identity theft; 1 reason y I do it myself & file on paper $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Housing Problems: Where To Get Help http://t.co/3hrCyQFy @retheauditors gives advice to those having issues with foreclosures $$ #goodstuff Jan 13, 2013

 

Banks and Investment Banks

 

  • More Ideological Excuse Making for Bad Banks http://t.co/0wjkQq3n It takes two to tango; it takes two to make a loan. Both deserve blame $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • A tempest in a spreadsheet http://t.co/W2mwYeHO A reason y having robust “smell tests” r needed when mathematical models get complex $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Mortgage Nanny Added to Lender Job Description http://t.co/nRRonPBL Caveat Emptor:May make probs worse by creating illusion of safety $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Wells Fargo to Start Jet-Leasing Venture http://t.co/a0FwgcNn FD: + $WFC | I like the fact that theyr starting small #organicgrowth $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Jefferies Sets Table in Pay Clash http://t.co/s6utAuEy Or, they could jump 2 $JEF soon 2b $LUK. $$ motivates better, but conflicts occur Jan 16, 2013
  • Bankers Get IOUs Instead of Bonus Cash http://t.co/fKrpWXZL Will tie employees more tightly, unless they jump to related industries $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Report of $JPM Management Task Force Regarding 2012 CIO Losses http://t.co/i7x0Ifi4 [132pp PDF] If interested in $JPM, summary in 17 pgs $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Municipalities Should Ditch Wall Street Derivatives Deals http://t.co/Jqmgjllk If Wall St is on other side of table, watch your wallet $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Banks say new agency’s oversight is slow, costly http://t.co/aHIGFRUh Banks pine away over the regulatory laxity they had 6-10 years ago $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Goldman?s ?Secret? Team Shows Volcker?s Folly http://t.co/fovIyDRf Difficult to stop prop trading, better 2 remake I-banks partnerships $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Bank Deal Ends Flawed Reviews of Foreclosures http://t.co/7DoTN8yA absurd, $$ will b distributed w/little regard 2 who was actually harmed Jan 13, 2013

 

Economic Policy

 

  • Portfolio Manager Creates Dazzlingly Deep Presentation On What’s Really Going On With The US Economy http://t.co/vcRHWwEe Long but good $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Obama Finds Path to Congress Deals Goes Through McConnell http://t.co/B763HV1u Give him his due; has a nose that can sniff out deals $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • The Next Tax Increase http://t.co/7beI2QUO What the US Govt has belongs 2 the US Govt. What belongs 2u is subject 2 negotiation $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Swap the Debt Ceiling for a Rule That Makes Sense http://t.co/NVYjvTD8 Maybe limit total liabilities of US Gov’t to 2x GDP? Way past that Jan 16, 2013
  • Why U.S. might be ?a nation of deadbeats? http://t.co/UuOHrKlt Consumers have been paying down debt, but walking away from more $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • A Credit Downgrade Warning Both Sides Should Listen To http://t.co/TbB3Gbdn Rating agencies r more honest than US Govt. Fitch may d/g US $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Treasury Bill Rate Curve Inverts Amid Debt-Ceiling Showdown http://t.co/0KOQqC7A Bill curve showing some inversion due 2 debt ceiling $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Money-Printing Will Lead to an Inflation in Another Guise http://t.co/erqP71P7 Debt overload & slack capacity short circuit credit growth $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Two Warning Signs for Treasuries http://t.co/BdAcNkHE “yield curve btw 2&10 years is starting to steepen” Resistance 2 neg real rates up $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • TIPS Implied Inflation 4 2018-22 rose over 2012; flat now http://t.co/R28O77bX 2014 Inflation rising http://t.co/VCfupYLT $$ Fed target 2.5% Jan 16, 2013
  • US states flirt with major tax changes http://t.co/EnZmtggx Red states moving toward sales & away from personal/corporate income taxes $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

States & Municipalities

 

  • California, Unsaved, Speeds Toward a Wall of Debt http://t.co/pyrObgbr Constants in life that r not comforting: gimmicks in CA budget $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • California Could Be the Next Shale Boom State http://t.co/r0QChYDh Energy could flow from the Land of Squandered Advantages $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Pension Funding Gap Widens for Big Cities http://t.co/a76JAJT0 Expect 2c many fights where bens cut 4 new, active & retired employees $$ Jan 16, 2013

 

Companies

 

  • Suitors Interested in H-P’s Autonomy, EDS Units http://t.co/AXdvxjei Wouldn’t put 2 much into this; $HPQ won’t get good prices $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Genworth Shares Soar Amid Plan for Mortgage Insurer http://t.co/Jqmgjllk $GNW moves deck chairs on the Titanic; rewarded for now $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Chevron Signs Deal for More Oil Exploration Acres Off China http://t.co/Yqb7yY7g FD: + $CVX smiles as it rides the tiger $$ #risks Jan 16, 2013
  • My Favorite Tobacco Stock Is Intel? http://t.co/Wupvh1qk @CharlesSizemore explains y it should deliver returns, amid hatred $$ FD: + $INTC Jan 16, 2013
  • TNT Left at Altar Gets No Immediate FedEx Deal http://t.co/QSdDHarC “FedEx in a good position to wait this out & let TNT come to them.” $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Latest IPOs Arrive In The Form of New MLPs http://t.co/cq7XuIKv All of the new MLPs r energy-related $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • ARM CEO East Says Phooey to the ?Transistor Cliff? http://t.co/wfiIeQau Cost, speed, & power use r the key factors 4 logic chips $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • Davos Pitch for Dynamism Rams Into End-of-Growth Debate http://t.co/1bNvkwD7 I don’t think growth is ended, but bad finances interfere $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Global Piracy @ 5-Yr Low http://t.co/YgJlRQSh 2012: Pirates boarded 174 ships globally v 439 in 2011, people taken hostage 585<-802 $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • NRA Labels Obama Hypocrite on Guns for Child Protection http://t.co/DqIsubsA Administration doesn’t like the argument; hits close 2home $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Kidnap insurers eye sales as euro crisis bites http://t.co/w5CfiwOe Stable rates: More competition, & armed guards 4 sea transport $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Mathematicians coming of age to become the most sought after professionals http://t.co/thXJdgsS Nerds of the world unite! Big data 2analyze! Jan 16, 2013
  • The Margin Debate http://t.co/zE6p5oO1 Labor share of US GDP has fallen because growth in the global capitalist labor force, wages fall $$ Jan 13, 2013

 

Financial Blogging

 

  • Your guide 2the financial blogosphere http://t.co/9mkoln2n Comprehensive list of finance bloggers. I’m listed under “Trading & Investing” $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • What are the 100 Top (Anglo-Saxon) Finance Blogs? A Pseudo-Scientific Study http://t.co/I9UU32zP I ranked higher than I expected 🙂 $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • The purpose of this site http://t.co/Bp4sqw5o @reformedbroker ‘s excellent piece on how his blogging helps him think & invest better $$ Jan 14, 2013

?

Painting Kate Middleton

 

  • @judehere Perhaps this then? http://t.co/hstcUqPq Jan 16, 2013
  • @judehere That’s okay. You say he painted the Queen? That’s interesting. Is there an image of that out on the web? Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @judehere She seems to be a nice lady, so I wouldn’t be a fan of that. But Freud died in 2011, so the possibility is not there. Jan 16, 2013
  • But this portrait of Kate Middleton is worse in my opinion http://t.co/LBMKplpo No wonder only 19% like it. (2/2) $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Learning to draw, I copied a photo of a friend w/pencil. Another friend said “You took a very pretty girl, & turned her in2 pretty girl” 1/2 Jan 16, 2013

 

 

Michael Pettis

 

  • Pettis: What I will watch in 2013: 10 things: hard commodity prices, trade numbers, Spanish Bonds, Target 2, & Japan (2/2) $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: What I will watch in 2013: 10 things: China growth, Debt trajectory, financial scandals, bank activities, inflation (1/2) $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: Imbalances can continue for many years, I argue, but at some point they become unsustainable & the world must adjust by reversing $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: Policymakers do this by shortening their time horizons &managing from crisis2crisis, rather than sorting out the underlying problems Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: policymakers… taking steps that protect them from the consequences of the crisis but that also make the crisis worse. $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: It is interesting that policymakers are so pleased by an end (temporarily, I assume) to the financing crisis. $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis:We ended 2012 in a burst of optimism for Europe, w/everyone cheering Mario Draghi 4having ?saved? the euro, but I am deeply skeptical Jan 14, 2013

 

Wrong

?

  • Wrong: How to Find a Fund Manager Who Can Beat the Market http://t.co/2Nq1Z9b2 Doesn’t understand difference btw correlation & beta $$ Jan 15, 2013
  • Wrong: US Budget : Federal finances continue to improve http://t.co/HKzv6pLK It is a *spending* problem that started w/Bush 43, not revenue Jan 15, 2013
  • Wrong: Municipal Bonds May Not Be Safe From Income Taxes http://t.co/MnIQIdor Would be a big shift, hit blue states hard. Won’t happen $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Chris Hayes’ Brilliant Explanation Of Money Is One Of The Best Things We’ve Ever Seen On TV http://t.co/e0kxN5oZ #goldstandard $$ Jan 13, 2013

 

Comments and Retweets

?

  • Good night. Blessings to all. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Think of judges in a court. No one will forgive a man for doing wrong in one area, because he has done good in others Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling It’s not a question of weakness but wrong. Divorce your wife for no good reason, cheat at your craft, all amounts 2 wrong Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Good question. God created Lance with a weakness. If Lance had trusted God, he could have overcome it, but he didn’t. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Not those that are God-given. Mt 5:48: “Therefore you shall be perfect, just as your Father in heaven is perfect.” Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling One last point: in the view of Jesus is there is no balancing. The least amount of evil poisons any good. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Read some of the writings of Kahneman & Tversky. Bad things have 3 times the force of good things. Good doesn’t erase bad Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Okay, I get it. But doing good things does not erase bad things. Doing things that are notably bad tarnishes anything good. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling I have heard the word as a part of popular culture, but have no idea what it is beyond a phrase. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Okay, I’ll bite. His charitable endeavors, but what else? Jan 18, 2013
  • @sallyeastman1 Well said Jan 18, 2013
  • My view: Lance Armstrong is best ignored. Close the browser window, change the channel on the TV, he will go away. I don’t care about him $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • @AboveAvgOdds Off to meet w/u & Chris Mayer in downtown Baltimore Jan 17, 2013
  • Endorse. I have read over half of these $$ RT @TheStalwart: The 22 books that Dylan Grice says you must read. http://t.co/QSOWvuBc Jan 17, 2013
  • @graemehein good point, but most simple models have obv intuition. Complex models have more potential 4 error b/c of 2nd+ order effects $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Others that did the same in 1994: Piper Jaffray’s Institutional Gov’t Income & FPA’s Fundamental US Gov’t Strategic Income funds Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Combined w/levering them, and not having the mathematical savvy to price them right http://t.co/5vkUxgO6 Story near the bottom Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Cate, you’re right, I’m wrong. At the time, David Askin & those like him were notable. W/Citron it was mostly structured notes Jan 17, 2013
  • @kirstensalyer Sorry, that honor belongs to the first quantitative hedge fund manager, Ben Graham, who was doing that in the 1920s Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Also used complex RMBS. There was kind of a contest 2c how much negative convexity one could absorb in exchange 4 yield Jan 17, 2013
  • RT @maxrudolph: #unintendedconsequences when pension regs set up EA designation cut off practitioners from ALM development. Still catchi … Jan 17, 2013
  • Well done $$ RT @LaurenLaCapra: Jim Chanos talks to @Reuters about Herbalife & whether Ackman or Loeb will win out: http://t.co/sV7B604o Jan 17, 2013
  • @finsovet @prieur @vitaliyk Honored 2b included in such a group Jan 17, 2013
  • Think this analysis is correct, but uncertain $$ RT @mickwe: 3D printing is a lot of hype and it’ll never go mainstream http://t.co/8wkr5oxp Jan 17, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “7 gut checks before the stock market?s opening bell” http://t.co/MrSqVXZF Jan 17, 2013
  • @niubi If so, good for him. He revolutionized my economic thinking with his last book. Looking forward to the next one. Review copy coming Jan 17, 2013
  • +1 RT @dpinsen: Paging @TomFriedman: comment on How a ‘model’ employee got away with outsourcing his work to China http://t.co/wukYAV8T $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • +2, scrap IFRS RT @Alea_: +1 Britain should scrap IFRS accounting standards, MPs told http://t.co/woWmyC2v Jan 16, 2013
  • @oddballstocks very different mindsets; marketing and operations r different from finance, which is still different from investing Jan 16, 2013
  • @oddballstocks I did that as well from 1992-1998. Tried very hard to select non-name-brand mgrs w/durable competitive advantages Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @ClayNickel It depends on how equitylike the bonds r, & the financing composition of the holders. If the bonds r financed w/sig debt.. $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • RT @Matthew_C_Klein: The big deal about the German gold story isn’t that they’re taking some of it out of NY but that they’re moving *al … Jan 16, 2013
  • RT @Matthew_C_Klein: @izakaminska has a thoughtful take on the base money debate between @interfluidity and @NYTimeskrugman http://t.co/ … Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @joshuademasi Good point. After all, most nations would love to swap for Norway’s economic situation. $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf Good insights both. We live in “interesting times” in the full meaning of the Chinese curse Jan 16, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker Rieder is a bright guy, as is my friend Ed Meigs at First Eagle; HY is okay for the short run, but 2 years out… $$ #Boom! Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf Yes Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf No, I don’t really find them persuasive. I do think that some Central Bank will stop sterilizing asset purchases, start new phase Jan 16, 2013
  • @JacPatterson I thought about that too, & think he really meant “English Language” Finance Blogs Jan 15, 2013
  • “But that also means you have to keep more $$ around if the puts get exercised, which Buffett had & many don’t.” http://t.co/uEIRn5i3 Jan 15, 2013
  • @joelight @spbaines the paragraph that starts ‘To screen out such “closet indexers,”‘ is factually wrong, does not understand statistics Jan 15, 2013
  • @joelight @spbaines I’m not arguing w/R2 as a proxy for active share, though there r better measures; article says correlation, means beta Jan 15, 2013
  • +10 Mmmmm… RT @dpinsen: Bresaola, lemon, olive oil, Parmesan, and basil joining forces for a great sandwich. http://t.co/pMMVmoI5 Jan 14, 2013
  • @abnormalreturns I’ve run into a *lot* of people trying to do this. Some are cleverer; not sure how it will work out… Jan 14, 2013
  • @JayLeonard but gold does control inflation and limits the government’s ability to use monetary policy for its own ends Jan 13, 2013
  • @JayLeonard Much of the difficulty is not gold vs not gold, but how banks were regulated — short liabs carrying long assets Jan 13, 2013
  • @GuldbergPeter Thanks, though I have heard that Canada *may* have issues. Jan 12, 2013
  • RT @GuldbergPeter: “@AlephBlog: Is there anyplace in the world that hasn’t overlent on real estate? Sweden, Canada and actually to some … Jan 12, 2013

?

FWIW

?

  • My week on twitter: 40 retweets received, 1 new listings, 67 new followers, 65 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 17, 2013
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Basel III

?

  • Betrayed by Basel http://t.co/dzH7crDt Additional Liquidity & Capital will always lower the bank’s ROE; banks always protest over safety $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • International rules & regs r also easier to co-opt, b/c the normal political opponents r easier to shut out of the process $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • BaSell Illiquid Liquidity Rules (Under Basel 3) http://t.co/mIww29wC International acctg rules & regulations r easier 4 companies 2ignore $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Banks Win an Easing of Rules on Assets http://t.co/8eealPyW If u want stronger banks, their costs go up b/c liquidity reduces profits $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Rules for Lenders Relaxed http://t.co/HIaunjdU Basel III Regulators Cave 2 Banks;Ease Requirements for Meeting Guideline on Liquidity $$ Jan 07, 2013

?

Rest of the World

 

  • Morocco Stalled Tourist Drive Traps Lenders http://t.co/pUdxfQUg Is there anyplace in the world that hasn’t overlent on real estate? $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • A Protest Unites Far-Flung Activists http://t.co/hGR0J8IQ China does not tolerate protests that seem to be coordinated $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • Google Chief Urges North Korea to Embrace Web http://t.co/XjXOBr4c Wait till they learn how poor they r compared 2 the rest of the world $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Gold Lures Japan?s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation http://t.co/ORqqGIuu Didn’t think Gold, Japan & inflation allowed in 1 sentence Jan 09, 2013
  • Japan to Buy European Debt With Currency Reserves to Weaken Yen http://t.co/qTW7RbqA Make a bunch of bad investments w/your monetary base $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • The Oslo Housing Bubble Syndrome http://t.co/UbXKjTvE Keep interest rates low to protect your exporters, and so inflate a housing bubble $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Pakistan Loving Fatburger as Fast Food Boom Ignores US Drones http://t.co/TlNm0DGc Something endearing about Pakistanis eating burgers $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Inconvenient Truths About Al Jazeera http://t.co/F8JdS1Co Perhaps it should be renamed “The Wahhabi Islam Ministry of Propaganda” $$ Jan 07, 2013
  • Record India Deficit May Limit Rate Cuts as Rupee Drops http://t.co/B9e24zwt India badly-run compared2 other EM Countries; feeling stress Jan 05, 2013
  • Ch?vez’s Appointed Heir Prepares 4 Battle http://t.co/JEvNVwJa Maduro Faces Factional Infighting Amid Campaign 2Win Venezuelan’s Hearts Jan 05, 2013

Fixed Income

 

  • Fitch Places Illinois GO Bonds on Negative Watch, Says Large Unfunded Pension Liabilities Unsustainable http://t.co/73qh5vg8 No Surprise $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • Is High Yield Overvalued? http://t.co/8ATkkF8B The high-yield category has increased risks and low absolute yields $$ High yield nulla est Jan 10, 2013
  • Fed Governor Tarullo pressing 4 banks 2fund themselves w/more long-term debt. http://t.co/vCT1tyy1 Good idea, I may have misjudged him $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Banks to Boost Liquidity With Illiquid Assets http://t.co/CzObiq31 Chart of the Day http://t.co/wD6VJRLi BBB bonds illiquid in crises $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Junk Bonds’ Fire Is Poised to Fade http://t.co/zSLNRXX3 Avg yields dropped below 6% 4the 1st time ever; Avg prices highest since 2004 $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Jack Lew


?? 10 Things You Need 2 Know About Jack Lew, Obama’s Next Treasury Secretary http://t.co/5kaGstrc Interesting summary of an influential guy $$ Jan 10, 2013

  • Is Jack Lew A Friend to Wall Street? http://t.co/SoK6kyw1 Like Tim Geithner, the new Treasury nominee may owe his views to Robert Rubin. $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Trading 1 type of cronyism 4another http://t.co/vCT1tyy1 & http://t.co/gx4cTK4U Lose Fed crony [Geithner], get political crony [Lew] $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Obama to Nominate Lew as Treasury Secretary http://t.co/D6rAids5 Strategy: nominate a lot of controverial ppl & wear down the Senate $$ Jan 09, 2013

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Debt Ceilings, Platinum Coins, Etc.

 

  • This impresses me as 6 of one, a half dozen of the other. Both try to make something out of nothing. http://t.co/5afNZxY9 Jan 10, 2013
  • Platinum-Coin Punditry Poses Threat to Dollar http://t.co/0pyjh2x3 Takes my view that it will decrease demand in the Treasury market $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Only Thing Wrong With the Debt Ceiling Is the Lag http://t.co/L7LFyqeD First Congress decides on how much 2 borrow, then sets budget $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • Why we won?t mint a platinum coin http://t.co/xbDdI5IA The reaction of foreign $$ obligation holders would be swift & negative #rsvcurrency Jan 08, 2013
  • Rebranding the ?trillion-dollar coin? http://t.co/YoqGgFWQ You can’t get something for nothing; this will makes foreigners distrust the $$ Jan 05, 2013

?

Economic Policy

 

  • Fed?s Plosser Says Stimulus May Backfire, Fuel Inflation http://t.co/qtp04uVT “?stimulus? may not help speed up the process…may prolong” Jan 12, 2013
  • James Buchanan, a Star Economist Who Understood Obamacare http://t.co/qn34aQPO Bureaucrats have a natural interest in seeing gov’t grow $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Economist Who Argued Public Officials R Ruled by Self-Interest Dies http://t.co/fx8ss0r7 James Buchanan founder of Public Choice Theory Jan 10, 2013
  • Button-Down Central Bank Bets It All http://t.co/Udzx5QCF What does it mean when central banks downgrade asset quality? Very trendy $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • US Consumers Obligation to spend http://t.co/stw01ER3 America’s Cars and Appliances Are Getting Old, may presage demand 4 durable goods $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Why Austerity Works and Fiscal Stimulus Doesn’t http://t.co/nJhXmjFK Austerity exalts free actions of humans; stimulus exalts bureaucrats Jan 08, 2013
  • The Education of John Boehner http://t.co/OgUWkXUw Leverage 4the next clash: GOP willingness 2let the spending sequester take effect $$ Jan 07, 2013
  • Ending the Era of Ponzi Finance http://t.co/oaPG7s8h 24 pgs PDF | John Mauldin has Daniel Stelter describe what’s unsustainable in policy $$ Jan 05, 2013

 

Companies

 

  • Mohawk Chief Lorberbaum Emerges as Billionaire With Tiles http://t.co/lQeR5B45 $MHK CEO owns 14% of the company; he’s a clever acquirer $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • What?s at the Center of the Debate Over Herbalife http://t.co/B4GV7Fi5 Ackman is hoping the FTC will declare $HLF 2b a pyramid scheme $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • News Corp. Tabloid Swaps Sex for Cats Among Brands Buffing Image http://t.co/4wILocCG No one is immune from aiming 4 irrelevance $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Buffett Railroad Sees Crude Cargo Climbing 40% http://t.co/JmbE7HmT Makes up for a loss of revenue in hauling coal $$ FD: + $BRK.B Jan 08, 2013
  • Secret Goldman Team Sidesteps Volcker After Blankfein Vow http://t.co/mTCwjoZ8 Wagers ~$1B $GS own funds on unaffiliated stocks/bonds $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Bill Ackman Says Just Getting Started Exposing Herbalife http://t.co/Cp40Zuqu Most of my summary acctg test #s look okay on $HLF. ?? $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Housing? Finance

 

  • The latest foreclosure horror: the zombie title http://t.co/b7hkmKDX Long article about people stuck w/homes b/c banks won’t foreclose $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • Rules Set for Home Lenders http://t.co/jg7QqiwQ Rules seem overly lenient; has the CFPB been co-opted already? That was fast $$ Jan 10, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Hedge Funds Squeezed With Shorts Beating S&P 500 http://t.co/55EpCxpb Positive momentum has led many shorts to cover, performance drags $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Finra to Shine Light on Dark Pool Trading http://t.co/Nt9OjmIb Does FINRA have the talent to analyze this? That would surprise me. $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • In Search of Family Ties http://t.co/g5SGaY1Z Families w/control can b valuable if they r interested in growth & not milking da biz $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • What’s Hot?And What’s Not (in mutual funds) http://t.co/W3blerlL Hot: Low Vol, Local $$ EM bonds, Active Bond ETFs Not: Vol ETPs, 130/30 Jan 07, 2013
  • Above the Market?s Leading Investment Indicators http://t.co/j54Dl3vu Long-term val’n measures like Q-ratio, CAPE10, Total Cap/GDP, etc $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Well done, Henry. I write this as one who enjoys BI, though I was won over bit-by-bit. Keep up the good work. http://t.co/cWecMkPh Jan 10, 2013
  • Check These Out at the Library: Blacksmithing, Bowling, Butchering http://t.co/teaqR76s Who knew Libraries would try 2b so relevant? $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Excellent Police http://t.co/qKpoliWR What the Baltimore P.D. can teach your office about multitasking and incentives. $$ #whoknew Jan 07, 2013
  • East St. Louis Cops Outgunned as Cuts Let Killers Thrive http://t.co/zHGmesXX Cut the Federal budget; don’t cut the local budget $$ Jan 06, 2013
  • Keystone Pipeline Clears a Big Hurdle in Nebraska http://t.co/Y1WqqCiE Local review says small impact on the environment at most $$ Jan 05, 2013

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong: Buffett Says Banks Cleared of Excess Risk Pose No Threat to US http://t.co/KWtOOcxo Excessive reliance on Fed funding $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Wrong: Why we need a currency war with China (and Denmark and Singapore ? ) http://t.co/b8XqDqfa You may as well say “Smoot-Hawley” $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Replies & Retweets

  • RT @cate_long: While savers forgo ~$200B in interest payments “@nytimesbusiness: Fed transferred $88.9 billion to Treasury in 2012 http: … Jan 10, 2013
  • @NickTimiraos Steep yield curve helps too, though it isn’t *that* steep thanks 2 QE-infinity Jan 10, 2013
  • @Kathleen_Hays Not necessarily. My friend Caroline Baum shared this article w/me: Is Jack Lew A Friend to Wall Street? http://t.co/SoK6kyw1 Jan 10, 2013
  • RT @ajkurki: @AlephBlog Absolute yields below 1st percentile of all observed observations since mid-90s (BofAML data). What could go wrong?! Jan 10, 2013
  • @cabaum1 Dear Caroline, thank you for replacing my bias w/a good article. Rubin’s influence is significant; didn’t know Lew was part of it Jan 10, 2013
  • @CharlesSizemore That it did. Jan 10, 2013
  • @CharlesSizemore I’m sorry, Charles. In my busyness, I didn’t catch that, and I should have. Apologies. Jan 10, 2013
  • Not a chance $$ RT @CharlesSizemore: Is Sears the Next Berkshire Hathaway? http://t.co/NNro3uuu $SHLD $BRK-A $BRK-B $WMT $HD #WarrenBuffett Jan 10, 2013
  • @EddyElfenbein Just a general mindset, but the penny stock promoters irritate me to the max. Jan 10, 2013
  • Investment banks r bull market babies $$ RT @ReformedBroker: Morgan Stanley still searching for a reason to exist $MS http://t.co/Zux43Z7C Jan 10, 2013
  • @howardlindzon @researchpuzzler Happy new year to both of you as well. May you have joys and constructive challenges. Jan 10, 2013
  • @howardlindzon @researchpuzzler Have fun reading tonight’s Aleph Blog piece then 😉 $$ (Not published yet) Jan 10, 2013
  • Eisenstadt discovers momo RT @researchpuzzler: “Go to it then.” Arnold Bernhard, in 1959, sounding like @howardlindzon http://t.co/jyCz1Fhi Jan 10, 2013
  • @Kelly_Evans It’s okay… given all that you do, an occasional blip is fine. I make lots of mistakes…. Jan 09, 2013
  • @Fullcarry I *don’t* think it will be an equilibrium. Besides, equilibria are rare in economies, they are ultracommon in journals though Jan 09, 2013
  • @Kelly_Evans Perhaps you mean inversely? Jan 09, 2013
  • @Fullcarry My problem is that most of the major central banks r doing this, not just Japan. What happens when all CBs have corrupt $$ bases? Jan 09, 2013
  • @moorehn @katierogers There were more revenues behind the Bowie bonds than the worth of the platinum in a coin. $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • @macrotourist Thanks, did not have time to listen to the webcast, but the slides are interesting. Jan 08, 2013
  • @LaurenLaCapra you’re right, wasn’t thinking — tweet deleted Jan 08, 2013
  • You can say that again. $$ RT @profithuntergrp: @AlephBlog agreed Iceland proved it early on – do the hard thing! Jan 08, 2013
  • Something looks wrong w/slide 3 — the bar lengths don’t compare with the numbers next to them. $$ http://t.co/kECnkBA0 Jan 08, 2013
  • Shouldn’t black holes be stable? They exist because all mas in a given area collapses under its gravity… http://t.co/4xJVsykF Jan 08, 2013
  • @JacobWolinsky It is more accurate, so I made the change… Jan 07, 2013
  • @munilass Do you have any opinion on BAM? I’m a little skeptical because credit risks r more correlated than life, P&C, etc. Jan 07, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “Lou Simpson’s top stock picks – MarketWatch” http://t.co/uTBPy1QW Jan 07, 2013
  • @JacobWolinsky That’s a fair point. I’ll delete the last tweet, & send out a better one. Jan 07, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “Lou Simpson’s top stock picks – MarketWatch” http://t.co/nC1KnTr2 Jan 07, 2013
  • RT @ModeledBehavior: A trillion dollar coin really feels like the U.S. jumping the shark. We’ve been on for too many seasons, the plots … Jan 05, 2013

?

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 63 retweets received, 2 new listings, 50 new followers, 56 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 10, 2013

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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Greetings

 

  • To all of my readers: Happy New Year. Here is to a blessed and fulfilling 2013, amid troubles and joys – no year is w/o them, glory 2 God $$ Jan 01, 2013
  • To all of my readers: 2012 had its joys and sorrows, but I appreciate that you read me. I will always try to bring you my best on twitter $$ Jan 01, 2013

?

?

US Fiscal Policy

 

  • Why the fights over disaster relief in Congress keep getting worse http://t.co/NZCEwU7N Local disasters increasing funded by Feds $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Sorry Folks, The $1 Trillion Coin Is Unconstitutional http://t.co/RXav6MlY h/t: @carney | Congress controls $$ policy, can’t delegate 2exec Jan 04, 2013
  • Why were there so many special interest provisions in the fiscal bill? Why didn’t the president veto it & ask 4a clean bill? #fiscalcliff411 Jan 04, 2013
  • Fresh Budget Fights Brewing http://t.co/lOdAltk7 Markets Breathe Sigh of Relief After Fiscal Clash, but Tax-and-Cut Battles Loom $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Infighting in GOP Follows Scuttling of Storm-Aid Vote http://t.co/cUQxnnu5 “Tin ear” When something big hits smaller principles must bow Jan 03, 2013
  • How Deal Was Made, Unmade, Then Saved http://t.co/xhHj15fs Surprising deal between Biden & McConnell did an end-around on other tries $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • A trifecta of articles on pork in the fiscal cliff bill: http://t.co/0ymE51HH & http://t.co/iEvwLdxE & http://t.co/CCuMAXnS Shame $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Senate-Passed Deal Means Higher Tax on 77% of Households http://t.co/WvIyEkJT What! You thought your taxes would not increase?! Hahaha! $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Deductions Limits Will Affect Many http://t.co/D0rteMMC Taxes are going up more than you think due to the phasing-out of deductions $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Ron Paul Rips Government in Last House Speech http://t.co/UuwfSI9o He was 2good 2b in DC; now he can be a rock star on college campuses $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Sequestration Threat To Defense Sector Begins To Recede http://t.co/QYACs66b Grateful that I did not sell my defense stocks $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Bipartisan House Backs Tax Deal Vote as Next Fight Looms http://t.co/Ns4SgHKX Both sides claim victory & decry dishonesty of the other $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • As an aside, when I had the chance to ask Ron Paul whether the Fed’s policies favored rich over poor, he immediately said, “Of course.” $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • House Balks at Cliff Deal; Down2Wire as Republicans Object2Lack of Spending Cuts in Senate Bill http://t.co/FkS6o1Ms Fall off cliff $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Lawmakers push one-year extension of farm bill in bid to avert spike in milk prices http://t.co/bRroFoo4 Please, just free milk prices $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • US loses if we go over the Fiscal cliff = US wins if we go over the Fiscal cliff | Some will be b affected 4 better/worse; US will b ok $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • US petroleum rail shipments up nearly 50% in 2012 http://t.co/kQnGw63v Only way to get additional crude to the coasts in the short-run $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Buffett Like Icahn Reaping Tank Car Boom From Shale Oil http://t.co/ekehRs3Y Buffett keeps all tank cars he produces-> BN can ship oil $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • A Novel Ship Extends Shell’s Reach http://t.co/RAEtM1fH High technology at work in offshore oil drilling. Impressive! $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Shale-Gas Revolution Spurs Wave of New US Steel Plants http://t.co/XEuaDiKY Ask this: what other impacts exist from cheap natgas? $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Financials

 

  • “Did the authors look at the “Call Reports” filed with the FDIC? More public data there. Kinda sloppy to miss that.” http://t.co/vCtQkZmu $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Why Bank Disclosure Is So Awful and How to Fix It http://t.co/RwW45LG5 Did they try reading the call reports? http://t.co/vAYMh7wE @carney Jan 04, 2013
  • BofA Joins JPMorgan in Having Units Ripe for Sale, Mayo Says http://t.co/4DtCCVdR Is there enough slack $$ around 2 absorb all of these? Jan 03, 2013
  • US Money Fund Exposure and European Banks: Eurozone Rises for Fifth-Straight Month http://t.co/nfWYO4jv “Risk on” MMF trade returning $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Insurer Sues Paulson Firm http://t.co/XFGKNGWB Does not seem like an easy win. ACA should have done more due diligence; they r pros $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Basel Becomes Babel as Conflicting Rules Undermine Safety http://t.co/1QIyVdR5 Rules, not principles. External models, not internal $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Big RIA Firm Uses Bible to Advise Clients http://t.co/9mtmySTo Almost every Evangelical w/$$ knows of Ron Blue; never knew he was so big $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Buffett Combines BofA With Buybacks to Beat S&P 500 http://t.co/zo8kLdNz FD: + $BRK.B | BRK is a conglomerate fueled by insurance prems $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Carlyle Agrees to Buy Duff & Phelps for $665.5 Million http://t.co/VoFVh6Oi Cheap price 2 become part of the ratings triopoly $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Fixed Income, Gold & Monetary Policy

 

  • Gold Heads 4 Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since 2004 http://t.co/xBRfbJ8P Key Q: What happens to real interest rates; will Fed tighten? $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Gold Set for Worst Run Since ?04 as Fed Signals End of Purchases http://t.co/xBRfbJ8P I would b skeptical here; no idea what the Fed does Jan 04, 2013
  • Risk Seen in Some Mortgage Bonds http://t.co/c7rROhEE Many CMBS bonds seem 2b priced 2 perfection, while some fundamental weakness $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Does the Fed need a new mandate? http://t.co/NkfjhSeG Fed should have one mandate: tighten policy when goods or asset markets go crazy $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Fed Officials Divided on Bond Buys http://t.co/7Gh6y8tn & increasingly worried about stimulus side effects http://t.co/SomUi1uK $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • While still holding $TLT, my bond strategy did well today b/c of all the emerging market bonds.TLT is a deflation hedge http://t.co/TiTMg6So Jan 02, 2013
  • TCW to Pimco Bet on Housing Bond Rally After 41% Gain http://t.co/DcXmVEj9 Feels like squeezing last drop of juice out of the lemon $$ 😉 Jan 02, 2013
  • Credit Has Best Rally in Europe Since 2009 With Central Bank Aid http://t.co/csZD3K8n At a cost of socializing future losses $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Why Bernanke?s policies could hurt the economy more than going over the ?fiscal cliff? http://t.co/EZDkZ6Sv Favors rich over poor $$ Jan 02, 2013

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • TV is Next: Why Investors Are Getting the Media Industry Wrong http://t.co/yLoZRU55 52 pp PDF | $AMCX $CBS $DIS $NWSA $VIAB $TWC $TWX $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • U.S. Electricity Use on Wane http://t.co/dEiZBCDe A good time to avoid overpriced electrical utility stocks, and alternative energy $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Of $30.9B Special Dividends in Q4, 28.6% Went To Insiders http://t.co/QTalSmva Interesting skew on who decided to do special divs $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • A Really Good Year?Wins and Losses of 2012 http://t.co/zS69udit Fridson: “Rather than being reassured, investors should be worried,” $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Avis?s smart Zipcar buy http://t.co/SEgD8JPJ Too early. Depends on refinancing, expenses saves, & uncertain synergies & mgmt attention $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Tribune Co. Emerges From Bankruptcy http://t.co/mUGITwmt So who owns the equity interests in Tribune now? Dec 31, 2012
  • Risk defined. http://t.co/eC3U00Lb @microfundy gives us three common definitions of risk & explains the virtues & deficiencies of each $$ Dec 30, 2012
  • The Six Biggest Investing Lessons of 2012 http://t.co/XWHRu0nG @reformedbroker takes us through mean reversion, momentum, & optimism $$ Dec 30, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • China Poised for 2013 Rebound as Debt Risks Rise for Xi http://t.co/0P9o0HzX Investment will not work, but will the Govt free the economy? Jan 04, 2013
  • El Al?s Shamir Parachutes Into Israeli Vote as Liberman Fades http://t.co/Yyi2iGAv Would heighten tension level if Shamir is elected $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Chavez Cancer Imperils $7 Billion Caribbean Oil Funding http://t.co/j5MLSeYx Lot of “
  • Why 49 Is a Magic Number http://t.co/F2DPpmtV France has a lot of firms that have only 49 workers b/c onerous regulations kick in at 50 $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Great Canadian Maple Syrup Heist http://t.co/mCMokL6T Cartel reminds of De Beers. Competitive supply makes it impossible 2 fix prices $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Used to Hardship, Latvia Accepts Austerity, and Its Pain Eases http://t.co/9v7Sf1AH If u haven’t let debt get too large, austerity works $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Chinese Fly Cash West, by the Suitcase http://t.co/L0NCTpo7 Kind of fitting that they come to Canada & US 2gain freedom after wealth $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • At Europe’s Doorstep, Fierce War Against TB http://t.co/2Z41atWb Makes good case4 quarantine when diseases r highly infectious/deadly $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Japan?s Population Falls by Record in 2012 as Births Decrease http://t.co/OTHuGOY1 Economies don’t work well when population falls $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Chavez Suffers New Complications After Fourth Cancer Operation http://t.co/fqIwxz8R If he dies by 1/10, there will b a new election $$ Dec 31, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Then I Watch ‘Em Roll Away Again http://t.co/2uF2LKhf The fascinating story of Otis Redding’s final hit. cc: @reformedbroker $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Threatening Asteroid Will Narrowly Miss Earth in 2040 http://t.co/buih448d That means it will come within twice the distance of the Moon $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Outmaneuvered at Their Own Game, Antivirus Makers Struggle to Adapt http://t.co/wD6LAA7l Whitelisting, Petri Dishes, Cleanup programs $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Disease Rips Through Florida Citrus http://t.co/zXlZEXX0 Bacteria Deal Slow Deaths to Trees; diversify to Brazil & California $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Pattern time: 1-1-13 11:13 PM $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • For-Profit Nursing Homes Lead in Overcharging While Care Suffers http://t.co/6RTKMhdq Choose nursing homes 4 your loved ones w/care $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • “Minds work best when they r castles, w/a moat, drawbridge raised, defenders ready 2destroy thoughts of deceivers w/arrows & boiling oil” $$ Jan 01, 2013

 

Wrong

  • Wrong: In a Diverse New Congress, Several ‘Firsts’ http://t.co/Xy3HVjlo Congress not genuinely diverse; 2 types of thought @ most $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Wrong: This Dow Component Has A 4.5% Yield And Sells For Less Than Book http://t.co/f9AFrt4t My comment: http://t.co/5T9XMJZW $$ Jan 01, 2013
  • Wrong: Benevolent Billionaires Should Buy Out Bushmaster http://t.co/iicdOxOd Monstrously dumb column asks liberal billionaires 2 lose $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • Wrong: Gauging the Guidance That Models Give the Fed http://t.co/J63vKEWM Neoclassical macro models r not capable of getting turning pts Dec 31, 2012

 

Replies, Comments & Retweets

  • @finemrespice @merrillmatter DB plans could have been managed better. Funding rules were too loose @ creation, & IRS discouraged overfunding Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice It would then send out notices to the oldest people not yet retired, bringing the retiree pop up to 1/3 size of workers $$ 😉 Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice At ~3 workers : 1 retiree. Yearly the government would measure the number of workers & announce the # that can retire (2/3) $$ Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice It’s a good idea. It would stabilize %age of people retired vs working. Another way would b2 set the ratio directly (1/2) $$ Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice Good idea – Make it a %age (~80%) of the life expectancy of a 20-yr old. %age goes up if pop proj 2 shrink & vice-versa $$ Jan 05, 2013
  • @carney Thanks, appreciated. Jan 04, 2013
  • .@Carney delegate so much of its rulemaking to study committees. Most of the Dodd-Frank law is getting designed by bureaucrats. $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • .@Carney Having a hard time commenting at @CNBC on yr articles. If Congress can’t delegate significant lawmaking, how does Dodd-Frank 1/2 $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • “I think you are right. Why is it that bad monetary ideas get more “currency” than good ones? 😉 ” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/VbCZpinR $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • You can read my comment $$ RT @BloombergView: It’s time for Japanese women to honor their Gloria Steinem | http://t.co/8brsJJ1v Jan 04, 2013
  • ‘ @TheEconomist Cover preview: America turns European. January 5th ? 11th 2013 http://t.co/JuBYRyZW Europe is in far worse shape $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Bigtime $$ RT @NorthmanTrader: @AlephBlog speaking fees in 4 years….. Jan 04, 2013
  • @insidermonkey Bigger firms chain together a bunch of 49-person subsidiaries. The French allow it to happen. $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • @Dirty_Alfred @TFMkts Key Question: Do financial institutions have enough capital & liquidity to absorb losses,turning debt into equity? $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • @groditi I like the added duration so I don’t have to hold so much of it. More room 4 other diversifying bonds w/more potential Jan 02, 2013
  • Bigtime $$ RT @mcgilcoli: @AlephBlog a pox on both their houses! Jan 02, 2013
  • RT @AsifSuria: Agreed but they should have replaced Black Swan with Fooled by Randomness. MT @AlephBlog: This is a great list. http://t. … Jan 02, 2013
  • This is a great list. I have read almost all of them. Here are my disagreements. Aswath Damoradan… http://t.co/ATKQ6wkG Jan 02, 2013
  • If he can stop that weird grin, I can stop $$ RT @BloombergView: Can we all please stop laughing at Joe Biden? | http://t.co/xJlpt8wI Jan 02, 2013
  • @ritholtz I have a Tex-Mex Lasagne recipe near me. There r a lot of unusual/fusion recipes that borrow the layering idea from Lasagne $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • “This is why I use momentum positively in most of my investing, even though I buy a lot of undervalued companies” http://t.co/WlFQV6Py $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • “This applies to wealthy people anywhere; at times of crisis, give up 5-20% to preserve 80-95%.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/XFa6akOC $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • @carney Great, I respect you, Carney. We don’t always agree, but I respect those that say what they think, contra politicians. $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • @McCainBlogette I am sorry, but every generation from the Baby Boomers & prior deserves progressively more blame. You don’t deserve blame $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • @carney Am I MSM, or am I just a blogger? I support the debt ceiling. Jan 02, 2013
  • Sad but true $$ RT @The_Analyst: making early call that’s your best/most accurate tweet of the year. Somehow she’s worth like $200mm. Ugh. Jan 02, 2013
  • Does she realize the she herself is a natural disaster? $$ RT @MicroFundy: Pelosi explaining how natural disasters happen. #nightisyoung Jan 02, 2013
  • Bigtime $$ RT @volatilitysmile: @TheStalwart best motivation to close a negotiation: being tired, wanting to just go home. cc @HarvardBiz Jan 02, 2013
  • U do it well RT @TheStalwart: Not to get sappy, but had a great 2012. Awesome year. Thanks everyone following and reading and all that stuff Jan 01, 2013
  • Yes, default is often the major form of deleveraging $$ RT @ZH_Crown: @AlephBlog @cate_long http://t.co/1nZlMA36 Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long & the other point is during a financial bust, enough debt has 2b liquidated/compromised/paid 4 things 2 become “normal” Dec 31, 2012
  • @fbaseggio @interfluidity @rfraserTX That could work; only difficulty is getting the data; oh, &getting the politicians 2 give up control $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long Yeh, saw that at the time; one reason we were short so many financials at the hedge fund I worked at — too early Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long Good bond mgrs know that when as class of debt is plentiful, you have to avoid it. Hard 2do amid benchmarking though $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long Bad institutional incentives like the CDO mkt had 1998-2007, fed by fin’l institutions reaching for yield even in AAAs Dec 31, 2012
  • @cate_long Consumers may not be as leveraged as they were in 2008, but they r still highly levered relative to history amid high unemp $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • @GonzoEcon @cate_long Businessmen do not take risks when their own leverage is high &

they know their customers r in the same boat $$ Dec 31, 2012

  • ‘ @cate_long No such thing as “animal spirits.” If leverage high, caution is warranted. Low leverage allows 4 borrowing 4 new projects $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • RT @TheStalwart: RT @tylercowen: So many say Obama is bad negotiator, but isn’t he actually rolling “the left” and secretly in league wi … Dec 31, 2012
  • @dpinsen That *is* cheap. Pity I can’t use them 4 clients — self-imposed simplicity Dec 30, 2012
  • Fingernails, def RT @ReformedBroker: Should I take the kids to the Les Miz movie? Or just stay home and pull my fingernails out one by one? Dec 30, 2012
  • “If you didn’t mention #4, I was going to. I am still long $TLT for clients, but toward the end of?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/9CGLXgiT $$ Dec 29, 2012

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 36 retweets received, 3 new listings, 57 new followers, 69 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 03, 2013

 

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