Category: Banks

Book Review: Banking and Financial Institutions

Book Review: Banking and Financial Institutions

Banking and Financial InstitutionsMany readers ask me for a good book on financial institutions, and this is a good one, if limited to depositary financials, not including insurance companies and asset managers.

This is a comprehensive book for depositary financials, even covering Islamic finance, which I will admit I learned from it.? It is a good thing to understand in depth those with whom you you disagree. Islamic finance imbibes the errors of Aristotle, who deemed money to be sterile.? Why force everyone into a mold where there can’t be loans at interest?? Why restrict that freedom?

But that is a small part of the book.? Most of the book deals with how banks operate.? It is very good at describing how banks create profitable lending, and how they act within regulatory boundaries.

It’s a good book, and I recommend it to all.

Quibbles

That said, there were many small errors in the book, which if the author had been an intelligent bond trader, the errors would not have been in the book.

As an example, on page 32, he called an MBS to be a CDO.? Yes, in an attenuated way that might be so, but for professionals that know the market, we would never phrase it that way.

Who would benefit from this book: Almost anyone will benefit from this book, but those who will benefit most are those who analyze banks.? If you want to, you can buy it here: Banking and Financial Institutions: A Guide for Directors, Investors, and Borrowers (Wiley Finance).

Full disclosure: The publisher sent me the book after he offered me a review copy.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

On Understanding and Valuing Financial Companies

On Understanding and Valuing Financial Companies

I have readers all over the world.? Here is an example:

Hi Dave

I am a 25 year old from Pretoria, South Africa. I have been reading your blog for around 2 years and I thoroughly enjoy it (especially the book reviews). I might not agree with a few things you say, but it is rare that I don’t learn something while reading your work. I love how your personality shines through in your writing…a personality based on God.

I have had this fascination with finance and investing since I ran into a popular finance magazine here in South Africa around 2008 while stile in university. Since then I have been reading everything I could on business, investing and finance. I am also about to start training with a large wealth management firm in south africa to be 1 of their financial advisors. Training I am wholeheartedly looking forward to.

In all my reading, there is something I still struggle to wrap my head around, and that’s how to value Financial companies. You are undoubtedly the most informed person on financial company investing nd financials that I read. Hence my email: I was wondering if you could suggest a few readings for me to tuck into (preferably books) as I have found most of the things I have read only scratch the surface. Reading with maths that is not too elaborate.

I hope I am not asking too much.? Thank you in advance for any suggestions you might have, and I hope you keep up the good work on your blog.

Financial companies are difficult for several reasons:

1) The cash flow statement has almost no meaning.

2) It is very hard to know how much capital is needed to keep things going.? That data gets disclosed to the regulators, and not directly to stockholders.

3) It is difficult to know the riskiness of the assets that a financial company holds.

4) With complex financials, it is difficult to tell what the “run on the bank” risk is.

I will be reviewing a book on banks this month, but I have run into few books in my life analyzing financials.? It is a real hole in the investment literature.

Financial companies are valued off of their net worth, and their expected path of earnings.? Earnings retained, rather than paid out in dividends, or used to buy back stock, adds to net worth, and is new capital that can be used for growth.

The capital of financial companies can be divided in two: that which is required by the regulators for solvency purposes, and that which is free for deployment into new business.? With banks, look at the call reports to analyze the capital needs of subsidiaries.? With insurers, get the statutory reports.

To the extent you can, analyze the quality of assets owned.? Also analyze when liabilities may require cash, particularly if assets are financed by repurchase agreements.

Now over the last seven years, I have written a lot on financials, particularly insurers.? Here are the articles at my blog that would deserve attention:

A Summary of my Writings on Analyzing Insurance Stocks

A compendium of the best articles written prior to mid-2010.

Then there was the Flavors of Insurance Series.? In 12 parts, it went through the entire insurance space, explaining what make each area different.

Thinking about the Insurance Industry

Describes the changes that have happened since the financial crisis.? Bad financial models have been destroyed.

On Life Insurance and Life Reinsurance

Explains how life insurance is saturated but reinsurance is not.

On Complexity in Financials, and Insurers Specifically

Explains why complex financials are usually a bad investment.

Investing In P&C Insurers

Once you understand the model, many are simple companies, and easy to invest in.

Evaluating Regulated Financials

An attempt to explain to college students why financials are different from other companies.

On Insurance Investing

This seven-part series explained a wide number of factors in analyzing insurance stock investing.

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

On some of the pathologies inside badly-run insurance firms.

Two Insurance Questions

On reserving and valuation questions.

On the Designation of Systemically Important Financial Institutions

Why Insurers, no matter how large, should not be considered a threat to systemic risk.? (Please ignore AIG — no other insurer was a major party in derivatives.)? Also see: On Risk-Based Liquidity, and Financial Regulation

On Captive Insurers

Explains some of the nuances of statutory reserving/capital, and why some insurers want to fuddle it.

Classic: Financials are Different

A piece from 2006 at RealMoney, describing how financials are different from industrial stocks.

That should give you a start.? There aren’t many books dealing with the intricacies of financial companies, and of what few there are they are written by the big four auditors, or the rating agencies, for their own purposes.? I don’t own any of them.

But what I have written, from that you can benefit.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Japan

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  • Japan World-Beating Stocks Seen Repeating Gains in 2014 http://t.co/v5QR4nVKd3 Analysts follow trends; they r wrong at turning points $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Abenomics Drives Japan Hedge Funds to World?s Top Performers http://t.co/fDmMBWIxgL Let’s c if Japan can survive the increase in debts $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Asia: From baby boom to bust http://t.co/eaDLDS3oAL Watch Japan 4a preview of what will happen across all of Asia; it won’t b pretty $$ Dec 28, 2013

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China

 

  • China Confronts Workforce Drop With Retirement-Age Delay http://t.co/TdsDKG1p5u China gets to the problem very late & way too small $$ $FXI Dec 26, 2013
  • China is so worried about its cash crunch that it banned the term http://t.co/y0eN3A58iB Worry when central bankers care about language $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • China Credit Squeeze Eases as Central Bank Resumes Using Regular Cash-Injection Tool http://t.co/D5UNiQuQSv Papers over solvency issues $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • China’s Pain Points http://t.co/Ry2XaZHYT8 underfunded health&pension systems; environment probs; water shortages; corruption; rigged courts Dec 26, 2013
  • China Promise Clashes With Clampdown on Foreign Business http://t.co/ycKPAWqGa2 They want the best of both worlds, and can’t get both $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • PBOC?s Opacity Leaves Markets Guessing Amid Cash Crunch http://t.co/TsgynBHdo6 No guess what PBOC policy will b, makin’ it up as they go $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • China Cash Crunch Pushes Up Short-Term Rates http://t.co/MgWmHwdQuC The fragility of the Chinese financial system comes into view $$ $FXI Dec 23, 2013
  • Was 2013 the Year We Lost China? http://t.co/Fmz3RixLW7 It’s difficult 2 say whether we ever “had” China, it pursues its own goals $$ $FXI Dec 23, 2013

 

PPACA / Obamacare

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  • Obamacare Hits Snag in States as US Site Finds Footing http://t.co/3q1SnLxu59 Surprised that some of the states would do worse than Feds $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Obamacare’s Web site Exchange Woes Trace to Cato’s Michael Cannon http://t.co/SDhb9sdATZ One Q is whether the natl exchange can subsidize $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • What to Do When ObamaCare Unravels http://t.co/w2iNS1HhWd Cute alternative 2 PPACA, but I think it could b even more expensive than PPACA $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Rule Change on Health Insurance Rattles Industry http://t.co/Fyntbs0rjS The lowball estimate of what Obamacare would cost comes back2bite $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Obama Repeals ObamaCare http://t.co/0RerlzDqA2 It was bad enough under Bush, y does Congress tolerate a president behaving like a king? $$ Dec 23, 2013

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Rest of the World

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  • Thai General Refuses to Rule Out Coup as Unrest Drags On http://t.co/PfqhKwIpSD A Thai friend of mine said military is needed in politics $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • BlackRock Buys Turkey Shares After Turmoil Spooks Markets http://t.co/bbcxmWIXHM $TUR down >26% in 2013 http://t.co/cHkL6E2TUd; $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Iranians Pile Into Stocks as Nuclear Deal Spurs 133% Gain http://t.co/mZ7J47vnPp Wall Street getting slow; no $IRAN ETF available yet $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Even in Straitened Times, Portugal Loves Its Bimby Cooking Robots http://t.co/j8a732IuKA Y isn’t this sold in the US? It does it all $$ $SPY Dec 26, 2013
  • Jihadists in Syria Draw Children of Muslims Who Settled in Europe http://t.co/r5suj7cZ6l Romantic youths want their lives 2b more than $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • UN to nearly double peace-keepers in South Sudan as violence explodes http://t.co/X9Z94O0mXF UN always increases malfeasance, bad 4 all $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Ukraine Upheaval Spurred by 28% Rates Limiting Buyers http://t.co/5VFiYvnpRk Capital flees when civil disturbances arise, thus high rates $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • US Plans to Ask UN for More Troops in Turbulent South Sudan http://t.co/I60iRC1Nmb UN is not a lot of help in situations like this $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Swiss Banks Employ Army of Advisers for US Amnesty Plan http://t.co/qRLXTt1JS7 Differing strategies as US exposure & reporting varies $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • South Sudan Refugees Swell As Americans Are Evacuated http://t.co/Iq2VxuFYNz Throw a bunch of warlords together, call it a govt & u get? $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Russia Crisis Haunts Deutsche Bank?s Smith Seeing China Bust http://t.co/nRm4PPTlvA Suspect a China debt crisis would not affect US $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Venezuela Devalues Bolivar for Tourist Dollars by 44% http://t.co/rOdpVu4xRd Almost 2 the point where the dollar will replace the bolivar $$ Dec 23, 2013

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NSA

 

  • Report on NSA ‘secret’ payments to RSA fuels encryption controversy http://t.co/1YTaHu4mfK Put in a backdoor so that NSA could access $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Edward Snowden, after months of NSA revelations, says his mission?s accomplished http://t.co/MdMFbSKaYK His life’s work is complete @ 29 $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • The One Big Question About RSA and Its Relationship With the NSA http://t.co/vR7GCsCa38 RSA builds “backdoor” 4 NSA 2 use, gets secret $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • NSA Struggles to Make Sense of Flood of Surveillance Data http://t.co/0gjztWYMSM Inside look at how data surveillance got out of control $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Finnish Security Researcher Cancels RSA Talk in Protest http://t.co/v0hsM2y548 RSA deliberately built faulty random number generator 4NSA $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Snowden Criticizes US Panel Overseeing Surveillance http://t.co/kLI7XmeKlN Panel exists 2whitewash bad behavior of intelgnc establishment $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Market Impact

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  • A Fund That Invests Like Buffett http://t.co/u9duSaR9oA I’m impressed; I’m putting their firm on my 13F list to track them quarterly $$ $SPY Dec 28, 2013
  • Our Outlook for the Stock Market http://t.co/N1IV6w32dj Morningstar gives their relatively bullish view of what 2014 will hold 4 stocks $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Muniland?s ?Best of 2013? http://t.co/KhaiAVmjzg @catelong is one of the best on municipal bonds & here is her summary of 2013 $$ $MUB Dec 28, 2013
  • 40% of fund managers surveyed r overweight euro-area equities http://t.co/vPYGQFvagC Bull Calls United in Europe, Strategists C 12% Gain $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • So, I’m skeptical of the article in the last tweet, unless the managers r long term investors & value players b/c flexible $$ runs in crises Dec 26, 2013
  • Half & Half: Why Rowing Works http://t.co/h46bRNMLAR A 50-50 mix of stocks & bonds w/rebalancing outperforms 100% stocks in choppy mkts $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • You Too Can Invest Like Warren Buffett?Maybe http://t.co/FU6MZzsmyj U would have to able to predict moats & not lever up too much $$ #tricky Dec 26, 2013
  • Investment Strategy Rises From Obscurity http://t.co/O8yIIqjTpZ US Govt loses $7B/yr on MLPs; Article features $IEP $CVR $CVRR $KMP $ETP $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Wall Street Landlord Loses Round 1 in Ohio School Tax Fight http://t.co/FgKOrnq283 Maybe school district should pass landlord profits tax $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Companies Binge on Share Buybacks http://t.co/JyW5QaRRP4 2% divs +3% buybacks ~5% shareholder yield. Is that enough reward 4 equity risk? $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • The TSC Streetside Chat: Robert Wilson, Part 2 http://t.co/IzzNlzE776 13 years old but prescient; he died in a suicide yesterday $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Financial Scammers Increasingly Target Elderly Americans http://t.co/raIvTr0B9a Tonight’s topic @ Aleph Blog – watch out 4 older friends $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • How Investigators Untangled the ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ Scandal http://t.co/AJwcx4XONC Penny stocks, overtrading, market manipulation $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • The Buyback Rally http://t.co/ZkBJsWBpe4 From @eddyelfenbein : 2% dividend yield + 3% buyback yield = 5% total yield on the market $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Hunt for Returns Prompts IPO Renaissance as US Leads Way http://t.co/dVURwoYGkn Capital will b deployed unproductively as the rally ends $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Secret Handshakes Greet Frat Brothers on Wall Street http://t.co/0t2zWLzL1A Part of what led to the crisis- connections&no smarts $$ $MS $GS Dec 23, 2013
  • Junk Loans Top ?08 Record as Safeguards Stripped http://t.co/9uZAwYeEaN Amazing how much biz u can do if u just leave aside risk control $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • The lavish lifestyles of placement agents http://t.co/0NU8cD5yl0 With pension monies, there is almost never a reason to pay commissions $$ Dec 22, 2013

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Companies & Industries

 

  • Twitter Posts Biggest-Ever Decline After Macquarie Downgrade http://t.co/zopyq0AKeb $TWTR needs 2show real income to validate valuation $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Twitter?s Ballooning Market Cap http://t.co/vm1xl8MRwb Every sell is a good sell. At worst, wait for relative strength to shift $TWTR $$ Dec 27, 2013
  • GM Robo-Glove to Meat Hook Smooth Human-Machine Teamwork http://t.co/G0dbUgbXIc The future of manufacturing: human-robot teams $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 26, 2013
  • $AMZN Makes Up to Customers After Backup Hits $UPS http://t.co/UUNGKJVJvI It is possible to overload the shipping system; $20 giftcards $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Panasonic Debt Goes to First From Worst on Revamp http://t.co/MsBhqKmMee Amazing what can happen when a mgmt team rationalizes businesses $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Bug Bites Cut Florida Orange Crop to Lowest in 2 Decades http://t.co/0muOIlUFmI Fortunately Brazil is having a good crop; citrus greening $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Reactors on Slow Road to Demolition http://t.co/jd3sbJiMHk Much hangs on creating a long-term site for storing nuclear waste $$ $D $EXC $ETR Dec 26, 2013
  • Twitter?s Ballooning Market Cap http://t.co/mhik2Xp8Nn The price discounts more than the future, it discounts the hereafter $$ $TWTR $SPY Dec 26, 2013
  • If Cadillac Keeps Growing Like This, It’ll Be America’s Bestselling Luxury Car http://t.co/YnijUf5SiC We r talking $GM; they will fail $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Wind Farms in Maine Stir a Power Struggle http://t.co/lhpmyeD75l I’m sorry, most people know that they don’t own their view, give it up $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • V.F. Corporation Common Stock Stock Chart http://t.co/5zEipUBEWf; Interesting 2c @Bloomberg & @yahoofinance mess up on $VFC ‘s 4 for 1 split $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Financial Sector

 

  • Banking Needs a New Regulatory Structure http://t.co/tgx7X4lSrq Rather, end interstate branching, & hand bank regulation back2 the states $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Will the Regulatory Screws Loosen in 2014? http://t.co/vxkuqAUCe9 Both sides r dreaming. Neither the regulators or banks r giving up $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • FDIC Recommendations to Curb Interest Rate Risk http://t.co/uRJw5tTcNS But will they bifurcate repo 2reveal the interest rate risk inside $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Examiners-in-Residence Should Be Pulled Out of Megabanks http://t.co/UcrvNoAmzu They will resist pressure better if they work together $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • How Thomas Curry Is Trying to Redeem the OCC http://t.co/iIbFR7Lqqv U can get a lot done in DC if u don’t care who gets the credit $$ $TLT Dec 26, 2013
  • Target?s Redcard Proves Less Vulnerable to Data Breach Than Bank Cards http://t.co/GDBN5KHvsK Added security makes the card harder2hack $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Angry Bart Takes His Parting Shot http://t.co/Wi5YChLExh How Wall St fights regulation: Direct kill; defund; exemptions; litigate $$ $GS $MS Dec 26, 2013
  • Why the US Leaves Its Credit-Card System Vulnerable to Fraud http://t.co/QN4egphZ8c Expensive to add more security & change hardware $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Politics & Policy

 

  • Deaton on US inequality and the Pareto criterion http://t.co/pdhMXzehju Hard to equalize; rich families have more resources 4 their kids $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Moguls Rent South Dakota Addresses to Dodge Taxes Forever http://t.co/4IYvqqrr66 Our own tax haven in Black Hills; set up a trust in SD $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Government Pulls in Reins On Disability Judges http://t.co/psmXNK7fXZ Disability Trust fund goes bust in 2016, judges urged 2b stricter $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Five Lessons of 2013, Guaranteed to Be Forgotten http://t.co/dCXEniOv8U I like # 3. The law of the land is subject to executive action. $$ Dec 26, 2013

 

Other

  • The marriage gap: Think again, men http://t.co/T45sDRYDFC People who r single rely on government more, v. married who rely on each other $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Two trends I’m watching next year http://t.co/Cx1gKdLaSR Cultural changes may limit HH formation & much capital formation is intangible $$ Dec 28, 2013
  • Detroit Wins $55M in Concessions From 2 Banks http://t.co/wOEsceACAR Derivatives around munis usually have something crooked w/them $$ $MUB Dec 26, 2013
  • The LEET Pure PC – A PS4 And Xbox One Killer For Your Entertainment Room http://t.co/3mDBrtTHb0 Pretty cool. Powerful, flexible & stylish $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • White Chocolate, a Blank Slate for Flavor, Wins Converts http://t.co/WflwRKYYJg A platform to allow other flavors to show their stuff $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Colleges Trim Staffing Bloat http://t.co/bRtEMsnfqG Finally the bloat of making college into “country clubs” starts to decline $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Most Twitter User Have Few Followers – Study http://t.co/ghZfDqVjUJ U have 2get2 over 2000 followers b4u can b certain that any1 listens $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • A Pill to Cure Addiction? http://t.co/ORYsOeoNXN “huge amount of progress understanding what drives alcoholism & makes it difficult2stop” $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Are Cranberries a Better Way to Long Life? http://t.co/o0YJDa0Uhy The antioxidants in cranberries may prolong your life $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Fake Knee Surgery as Good as Real Procedure Study Finds http://t.co/Ucvi50nsqW Result Likely2Fuel Debate Over Common Orthopedic Operation $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Study: Eating Nuts in Pregnancy May Lower Child’s Allergy Risk http://t.co/X2IQwj1QfN Something new 4 children 2 blame their mothers over $$ Dec 24, 2013
  • Almond Spike Hits Germany’s Markets http://t.co/DpEJXxwWir Bad weather in California & Spain & demand in China push prices 2 record highs $$ Dec 23, 2013
  • Unwanted Memories Erased in Electroconvulsive Therapy Experiment http://t.co/nfo3lDmHDH Great. Another way to remove humanity from people $$ Dec 23, 2013

 

Wrong, Etc.

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  • Wrong: The Air of Unreality in NSA Reform http://t.co/8psN0iSI1r Being a free country means we have 2 allow 4 possibility of bad events $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Disagree:Snowden Says Surveillance Is Worse Than Orwell Envisioned http://t.co/2AEb3tNk0G It may b more pervasive but it is low intensity $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • Central Error: that inflation & real growth are positively correlated [1970s] http://t.co/yLXk2UnQWu Dec 23, 2013
  • Wrong: GOP lawmaker: NSA spying in US could have prevented 9/11 http://t.co/cHAnKSOsqY At best, fighting the last war; live free or die $$ Dec 23, 2013

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Comments, Retweets & Replies

 

  • Commented on The Economist | The 2016 election: Flight of the Huckabees http://t.co/Yh3tym96OO Dec 27, 2013
  • ‘ @SonofGodMovie The 2nd Commandment says it’s wrong to portray God. Your movie makes Jesus a mere man; you can’t portray his divinity $$ Dec 26, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker Nailed it. Dec 25, 2013
  • RT @minefornothing: The economy of Cyprus is now also experiencing a major credit crunch http://t.co/uRMUjaUCyf Dec 24, 2013
  • http://t.co/60MjQwGbNz “It’s the thought that counts, which is worth more than money.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Ij9Ttfesye $$ Dec 24, 2013
  • RT @michaelsantoli: Trust me, in Dec ’87 no one said “Only 1/3 done” RT @CiovaccoCapital: Bull Markets can last a long time – see 82-’00 h? Dec 24, 2013

 

Classic: Financials are Different

Classic: Financials are Different

The following was published at RealMoney in March 2006:

When you are a corporate bond manager, one of the lessons that you learn early is that financial companies (or, financials) are different from industrials or utilities.? Why?? First, the novice manager wants to buy a lot of financials, because they yield more at equivalent ratings.? Second, you have a staff of analysts, and you realize that only a few of them can do financials, whereas almost all of them can do industrials or utilities.? Again, why?? Here are a number of related reasons:

  • Tangible assets play only a small role in a financial company.? What constrains the growth of an industrial company?? The fixed assets (plant and equipment) limit the technical amount of product that can be delivered in a year.? With services, workers? Finally, demand is the ultimate limiting factor, but this affects financial, industrial, and services businesses alike.? With a financial company, sometimes the limits are akin to a service business (?If only we had more trained sales reps!?), but more often, capital limits growth.
  • The cash flow statement plays a big role with industrials and utilities, but almost no role with financials.? One of the great values of the cash flow statement is the ability to attempt to derive estimates of free cash flow.? Free cash flow is the amount of cash that the business generates in a year that could be removed, and the business is as capable of functioning as it was at the start of the fiscal year.? Deducting maintenance capital expenditure from EBITDA often approximates free cash flow.? Cash flow statements for financials cannot in general be used to derive estimates of free cash flow because when new business is written, it requires capital to be set aside against the risks.? Capital is released as business matures.? In order to derive a free cash flow number for a financial company, operating earnings would have to be adjusted by the change in required capital.
  • Sadly, the change in required capital is not disclosed anywhere in a typical 10K.? Depending on the market environment, even the concept of required capital can change, depending on what entity most closely controls the amount of operating and financial leverage that a financial institution can take on.? Sometimes the federal or state regulators provide the most constraint; this is particularly true for institutions that interact closely with the public, i.e., depositary institutions, life and personal lines insurers.? For entities that raise their capital in the debt markets, or do business that requires a strong claims paying ability rating, the ratings agencies could be the tightest constraint.? Finally, and this is rare, the probability of blowing up the company could be the tightest constraint, which implies loose regulatory structures.? Again, this is rare; many companies do estimates of the economic capital required for business, but usually regulatory or rating agency capital is tighter.
  • Financial institutions are generally more highly regulated than non-financial institutions.? There are several reasons for this: the government does not want the public exposed to financial risk, systemic risk, guarantee funds are typically implicitly backstopped by the government (think FDIC, FSLIC, state insurance guaranty funds, etc.), and defaults are costly in ways that defaults of non-financials are not.? The last point deserves amplification; in a credit-based economy, confidence in the financial sector is critical to the continued growth and health of the economy.? Confidence can not be allowed to fail.? Also, since many financial institutions pursue similar strategies, or invest in one another, the failure of one institution makes the regulators touchy about everyone else.
  • Rapid growth is typically a negative; financial businesses are mature, and there is a trade-off between three business factors: price, quantity and quality.? In normal situations, a financial institution can get only two out of three.? In bad times, it would be only one out of three.
  • Because of the different regulatory regimes, financial institutions tend to form holding companies that own the businesses operating in various jurisdictions.? Typically, borrowing occurs at the holding company; the regulators frown at borrowing at the operating companies, unless the borrowers are clearly subordinate to the public served by the operating company.? This makes the common stock more volatile.? In a crisis, the regulators only want to assure the safety of the operating company; they don?t care if the holding company goes bust, and the common goes to zero.? They just want to make sure that the guaranty funds don?t take a hit, and that confidence is maintained among consumers.

All of these factors together lead to the following conclusion: financials are more complex than other types of companies, and are not correctly analyzed in the same way as non-financials.? Earnings quality is hard to discern, and growth is not always a positive thing.? Bankruptcies are rare, but when they happen, recoveries are poor for common stockholders and holding company debtholders.? Finally, management conservatism and competence are paramount, given the less certain nature of accrual accounting at financial companies, and the inability to calculate free cash flow with any precision.

In part 2 of this two-part series, I will give my approach to analyzing a sector of the insurance space in order to demonstrate some of these ideas.

Give Them a Small Bank

Give Them a Small Bank

It takes a thief to catch a thief. ?Thus I have a modest proposal for bank regulation. ?This could be applied more broadly to other forms of financial regulation also.

Why not require that all regulators spend time managing banks before they are appointed to be regulators? ?I think this would be very instructive to those who would become regulators, because they would see how issues at banks appear from the other side.

I am not suggesting that potential regulators “go native” and become sympathetic to banks. ?Working inside a financial institution can do the very opposite, and inform a regulator on what to be careful about. ?I want regulators to have the smarts that an insider perspective gives.

Think of me for a moment. ?I am not a fan of the insurance industry; I also don’t hate it, but I know it well. ?I know where the warts are. ?If I were a regulator, I would be feared by the industry, because there is almost nothing that I don’t know about insurance in broad. ?(I.e., I am not trying to brag, but I think that I am competent in analyzing insurers.)

My point is that we want intelligent regulators that cannot be bamboozled. ?That only comes with significant industry experience.

But industry experience isn’t enough. ?You want people who are intelligent critics, who can look at the industry and say that certain practices are wrong from a solvency or market conduct standpoint.

And thus I say, “Give them a small bank.” ?Let the Federal Government set up a bunch of small banks for prospective regulators to help manage for a few years. ?Being part of a senior management team would cue them into a wide number of problems as they try to make money in a competitive market. ?Let them interact with their regulators as well.

I write this because when I read what most broad bank regulators at the highest levels say, I think, “All you can do is suggest things should be tighter, but you have no good reasoning for what or why. ?Would that you understood the industry you are regulating.”

In general, it is a bad idea to have academic economists in regulatory positions, because they do not understand what they are doing, but merely follow their ideology. ?Far better to have practitioners that are skeptics be regulators, because they really know what is going on, and will not spare the industry over abuses.

As a dear friend of mine once said, “To truly loathe the public schools, you have to be one of the teachers.” ?In the same way, I say make the regulators work for the banks before they regulate them, so that they can properly loathe them.

When to Worry — An Asset-Liability Management Perspective on Financial Macroeconomics

When to Worry — An Asset-Liability Management Perspective on Financial Macroeconomics

At the end of the day, the world is net flat.? Every asset is owned 100%; every liability is someone else’s asset.

If everything is 100% owned, why are there ever crises?? Financial companies owning illiquid assets financed by short, liquid liabilities.? Liquidity crises are credit crises; a company going through a liquidity crisis did not do sufficient stress testing to realize that they were weakly financed.

Crises are never accidents, aside from things like Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy.? And guess what?? How many insurers failed from those two events?? None.

Crises happen because things are inverted.? Under ordinary circumstances, prudence dictates that long-term assets be financed by equity or long-term debt.? Before a crisis, long-term assets are owned with short-term debt, and wealthy guys like Buffett and Klarman hold cash and shun long-term assets.? That’s inverted.? Those that should not be bearing risk are bearing risk, and those the could bear risk aren’t.? Why?? Because the prices on risk assets are high, and smart investors lighten the boat as the envious buy into momentum at the end of a doomed rally.? Ben Graham’s weighing machine takes over from the voting machine.

So what are reasons to worry?? Here are a dozen, not in any order:

  • The combined balance sheets of investment banks grow, and the complexity of their assets rises.
  • The repo market grows, as less liquid assets are financed by very liquid liabilities.
  • Poor-to-middle class people begin taking risk by buying homes, or speculating in stocks.? These people have weak liability structures, because they live paycheck to paycheck.
  • Mortgage finance moves to ARMs or even more exotic loans.
  • Downpayments on homes get low.
  • Rich hold more cash while the poor and middle-class borrow.? The rich can take losses — they have long time horizons.? When they play defense, it is a time to be concerned.
  • In a given sector there has been a large increase in debt, and there are concerns over ability to repay.
  • Shadow banking has increased dramatically.
  • Financial commercial paper issuance has increased dramatically.
  • People rely on certain large financial firms to not default, even if they have taken on too much credit risk relative to their capital.? (Think of Fannie and Freddie.)
  • Increased financial complexity makes everything opaque.? Bad things happen in the dark.
  • The credit cycle gets long in the tooth, and credit spreads/yields tighten to levels that are far too low for the risk taken on.

Now, I leave aside pure macroeconomic concerns like the possibility that the Fed might face a greater problem with stagflation than it did in the ’70s.? When long illiquid assets are financed by short liabilities, all sorts of bad things can happen.? Keep your eyes open.? Hey, aren’t Buffett and Klarman letting cash levels rise?

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Rest of the World

 

  • Ghana Farms Miss Out on Oil-Fueled Middle Class Food Demand http://t.co/IwEsoXVy20 Middle classes introduce changes into societies $$ $SPY Dec 07, 2013
  • Are the Baltic Dry Index Telling Us to Expect a Stronger Economic Activity? http://t.co/aqnFaUuGkg Could be, but only in exports $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Yuan Passes Euro as 2nd-Most Used Trade-Finance Currency http://t.co/yeNQzNYLWD If China’s banks were exposed 2 market, would b impressed $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Big Oil to Get Brazil-Like Terms in Plan to End Mexico Monopoly http://t.co/SWqSEyVnU0 Maybe Mexico can gain the technical help it needs $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Panasonic in Deal Talks With Auto Parts Makers for Expansion http://t.co/vjECK9hnD5 Desperation drives the company 2 seek more markets $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Pirates Wielding Grenades Spur Japan to Ease Samurai-Era Gun Ban http://t.co/jsOtaI0J7c Force must b opposed by force; no other way $$ $SPY Dec 07, 2013
  • Rich Kazakhs Revive Polygamy as Women Seek Poverty Escape http://t.co/vTn2h9eSZx Young Kazakh women would rather b second wives than poor $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Iran Wants US Companies to Develop Oil Fields http://t.co/E1NUUEo5t4 The Great Satan is quite useful under the right conditions $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 07, 2013
  • China Cinda Attracts $65B in Orders for Up to $2.5B IPO http://t.co/6i5nvsWhSD Those are bubbly conditions; 2 much $$ 2 put 2 work $SPY $TLT Dec 07, 2013
  • Wrong: OECD Warns Riksbank Against Obsessing Over Record Debt http://t.co/fYu3CcY31M OECD should learn excessive debt harms $$ $TLT $SPY Dec 07, 2013
  • Banks in Safest Euro Nation See Credit Drought as Finns Save http://t.co/HZ6IDctQzk Many want to save; few want to borrow. Rational $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Spain Credit Falls to ?05 Shadow After Price Collapse http://t.co/y9VUnLcszp Even that is too much credit. Wait 4 hard money buyers $$ Dec 06, 2013
  • China Bans Financial Companies From Bitcoin Transactions http://t.co/i8yhbAcKAW Wealthy Chinese want to get value out of China $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 06, 2013
  • “Wealthy Chinese could use it to funnel flight capital out of China” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/XRD6rOfsGg How Bitcoin functions in China $$ Dec 02, 2013
  • China?s Largest Bitcoin Exchange Seeks Recognition for Currency http://t.co/hNtBu9e2MU Communist Party will eventually ban Bitcoin $$ $SPY Dec 02, 2013

 

PPACA/Obamacare

?

  • Obamacare’s New Goal: Stay Alive Until 2015 http://t.co/tJpT20oW6K The idea is 2 survive until 2015, so the law can’t b destroyed in 2017 $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • How Much More Will Smokers Pay for Obamacare? http://t.co/Rd3eWeVynR Answer: not much more & no, it will have little effect on quitting $$ Dec 04, 2013
  • Obamacare Website Repair Goals Reached, Administration Says http://t.co/PfJ5tgLrSu Big Problem: the insurers are not getting the data $$ Dec 03, 2013
  • Deep Inside The Hot Mess Called Obamacare: It’s Time For Honesty http://t.co/uY6P8JnakO Sophomoric, doing a dumb thing, calling it wise $$ Dec 01, 2013
  • Obamacare Payment System to Insurers Changed in Setback http://t.co/0d26PCyQh6 Complex law, difficult to change w/o affecting other parts $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Inside the Company That Bungled Obamacare http://t.co/EbcR6VQ3rs B wary of companies that grow 2 fast w/shaky revenue recognition $$ $GIB Nov 30, 2013

?

Pensions

?

  • Change Illinois’ pension benefits to match the Social Security system http://t.co/LuA3nkw50C The bill passed will harm Illinois long-run $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • The Best and Worst Run States in America: A Survey of All 50 ? http://t.co/Kq5ElC567u You might be surprised by the rankings $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 07, 2013
  • Pension Threats in Illinois, Detroit Rattle Government Workers http://t.co/t2rqvoK3cl If the local government can’t pay, it won’t $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Pension Threats in Illinois, Detroit Rattle Government Workers http://t.co/Hd0Wr0TL0b Blame Union strategy of extracting pension gains $$ Dec 06, 2013
  • Illinois Passes Pension Overhaul http://t.co/8svwzeiTuK Fake overhaul that leaves Illinois taxpayers worse off, will go to court & die $$ Dec 05, 2013
  • Detroit Retirees Got Extra Interest After Guaranteed 7.9% http://t.co/WmvpH4PHWI What Detroit did w/”excess” pension earnings was evil $$ Dec 03, 2013
  • Illinois Legislative Leaders Try to Sell Pension Agreement http://t.co/vU1O1qKSO6 Dreamland vs Hard Choices. So far Dreamland is winning $$ Nov 30, 2013

?

US Politics & Policy

 

  • Gun Patents Set 35-Year Record as Limits on Sales Fail http://t.co/lZKuBqkheu When GOP has Presidency sales will fall $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • What You Don?t Know About Mortgages http://t.co/dmKPgFMAqL! Mortgage documents don’t reflect the full cost of getting the mortgage $$ $TLT Dec 07, 2013
  • Obama war chiefs widen drone death zones http://t.co/E47ZKFgBex If we want to make the US odious to the rest of the world, use drones $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Paul Krugman Consigns To Hell An Economic Slump Of His Own Devise http://t.co/qgrKFSBG8W We have 2 turn the lights off near Krugman $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • The Fed Must Inflate http://t.co/nBKutizEDw I think this is the most likely conclusion, but not certain $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Is the Fed increasingly monetizing government debt? http://t.co/1I3twSCfaY Yes, Fed is monetizing government debt, get ready 4 inflation $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Angry Self-Insured Voters Dim Democratic Takeover Plans http://t.co/MMjVZi16LU Many feel robbed by the loss of choice in healthcare $$ $SPY Dec 06, 2013
  • Henninger: Obama’s Red-Line Presidency http://t.co/tOjc5UV88s What doe the US stand for? What will we defend? Who r our allies? Confusing $$ Dec 06, 2013
  • “You can’t regulate what you don’t understand. The SEC looked in on it several times, with more?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/g9jqwD0En1 $$ Dec 03, 2013
  • Uninsured-Driver Dilemma http://t.co/DSBWcNLyMk Have Assurant track non-payment at the insurers, & inform the MVAs of lapsation $$ $AIZ Dec 03, 2013
  • Magic Johnson, Tom Hanks Join Obama on Cash-Grabbing Trip http://t.co/z2AOd9C8yC Cash works in the short run, voters decide the long run $$ Dec 03, 2013

 

Financial Sector

 

  • Why FDIC is Running Out of Time for Resolution Planning http://t.co/5PTdNU6LPb As w/all complex laws, things move slowly, no surprise. $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Why Capital Is Key Battleground in GSE Reform Debate http://t.co/21pFcfRhfU Appropriate capital 4 new system:a political &technical issue $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Penny Pricing for US Stocks Said to Get Scrutinized http://t.co/grStNTieJR I don’t think this is a big problem, helps small investors $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Examiners-in-Residence Should Be Pulled Out of Megabanks: OCC Report http://t.co/QGyvc9RkDz Familiarity breeds acquiescence, not contempt $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Buyers Give Up Their Names to Seal Merger Deals http://t.co/zmAgQ2J5Zo Who cares what a bank is named, so long as you have control? $$ $FXF Dec 07, 2013
  • Volcker Rule to Force Banks to Comply With Five Regimes http://t.co/7H0s7dhCnm Recipe 4 disaster. When many r responsible, no one is $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Slate Writer Is Dead Wrong to Root Against Community Banks http://t.co/TAL566KB0n Getting banks is tough 4 neophytes like Matty Yglesias $$ Dec 06, 2013
  • Private equity firms brace for ?mafia? style scrutiny http://t.co/dRaXIvfztv This looks a lot more difficult than the article indicates $$ Dec 03, 2013
  • Fed Eyes Financial System’s Weak Link http://t.co/ShsZIBcWT4 Solution is simple; bifurcate repo acctg 4 statutory cash flow testing $$ $XLF Dec 03, 2013
  • Creating a Black Swan http://t.co/wMnfc81Ai0 Attempts 2 explain how negative black swan events get created in financial markets $$ $SPY $TLT Nov 30, 2013
  • The Black Swan http://t.co/IBQL7AG4XJ A good piece that explains positive & negative “Black Swan” events, & how 2 thus position for them $$ Nov 30, 2013

 

Companies & Industries

 

  • Crude Oil Refiners Are In A Sweet Spot | Commodities http://t.co/HjtUJOe0gZ Because crude oil can’t b exported, refiners benefit $$ $SPY Dec 07, 2013
  • Retailers Are in a Deflated Holiday Mood http://t.co/Rd7JLXlRj8 One reason why I rarely invest in retailers, aside from grocery $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 07, 2013
  • Heavy Inventories Threaten to Squeeze Clothing Stores http://t.co/t542Zlltcf That said, clothing is dirt cheap, so why worry much? $$ $SPY Dec 07, 2013
  • Hidden U-Haul Billionaire Emerges With Storage Empire http://t.co/YRE2pc6Tf4 Fascinating tale of how brothers rescued the family business $$ Dec 06, 2013
  • UnitedHealth Projects 2014 Results Below Analysts’ Estimates http://t.co/c9fGK1QUzp Health Insurers take one for Obama’s errors $$ #FTL Dec 03, 2013
  • Olin Corporation Common Stock up 9% today http://t.co/HwlrL4TD9z Something is happening w/OLN today. Anyone know what? FD: + $OLN $$ $SPY Dec 02, 2013
  • Microsoft, Yahoo Upgrades Shows Snowden Won, Obama Failed http://t.co/sqzBmoIY8n Encryption keys double, squaring time needed to crack $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Fair-Weather Friends or Raining on Your Parade http://t.co/uVksfLp84u Good snarky post. Time to lighten up on property-centric reinsurers $$ Nov 30, 2013

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Gen Re?s Gilbert Says Fed Sets Up Stocks for a Decline http://t.co/o28udyUMGC The Fed will learn the limits of its power in a few years $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • The Blessing of a Declining Stock Price http://t.co/Ta2eE12QW7 This is how I do it; I buy companies that have moved against me $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 07, 2013
  • The Stock Market Is ‘Shrinking,’ Despite Record-High Indexes http://t.co/cj6YcrhBYL Interesting argument of stock scarcity pushing prices $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Buffett’s Alpha http://t.co/D3UrTxePlp Finally a paper from academics that gives Buffett the credit he deserves. Efficient markets? No. $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Gross to Run Pimco Unconstrained as Dialynas Takes Leave http://t.co/rgLxxVp3Xj Unconstrained is no guarantee of good performance $$ $TLT Dec 06, 2013
  • ?Quant? hedge funds: Computer says no http://t.co/ZCXplVsnnA Runs in cycles as more or less focus on anomalies in investing $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 01, 2013
  • Don?t Ignore Doctor Copper http://t.co/JYw6XNcR5z Copper is indicating a punk economy $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 01, 2013
  • Howard Marks: Too Cute for His own Good? http://t.co/BWZ2bDD0xP Unfair. Marks says that the opportunity set is small, get it? $$ $SPY $TLT Dec 01, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Fixing What’s Wrong With Economics 101 http://t.co/BR8Lt8Z19H We need 2 scrap neoclassical economics, and move economics away from math $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • Madoff Behaved Like a Lunatic Over Fund Probe, Jury Told http://t.co/CUfV17a9tA Seems like Madoff employees kept their heads down $$ Dec 07, 2013
  • CS50, a computer science course, breaks stereotypes and fills halls at Harvard http://t.co/wnc2WYQbpo Making IT relevant across cultures $$ Dec 01, 2013
  • Caveat Emptor: Lovers of Latin Try to Sell a Dead Tongue http://t.co/d5YuHQQZtd Looks like wishful thinking 2me. Esperanto, anyone? $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Why Taylor Swift Is the Reigning Queen of Pop http://t.co/sTEJPtyp66 Swift’s popularity secret? My take:she appears more humble than most $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Build a Better Turkey Sandwich http://t.co/mM42sClsuL Thanksgiving keeps on giving in six inspired takes on the leftover-turkey sandwich $$ Nov 30, 2013
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Rest of the World

?

  • Morgan Stanley Leads Japan M&A for 1st Time Since 1997 http://t.co/QnzC26Wj7a Global expertise is @ a premium w/many deals across borders $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Can Phone-Charging Stove Cut Wood Pollution and Save Lives? http://t.co/XY66nqo3xO Cook food w/less fuel & pollution; make electricity $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Carney?s Housing Alarm Bell Nudges BOE Toward Stimulus Exit http://t.co/001OJ0Nj4o But will he really do it? Economic growth isn’t fast $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • In Thailand, It’s Crippling D?j? vu All Over Again http://t.co/wKMJIarSij Democracy does not fit the cultures of some nations well $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • OPEC Rift Emerging Over Iraq Output, Possible Return of Iran http://t.co/o329Mykhxa OPEC? Forgot about them. Iraq oil production grows $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Aussie Set for Longest Drop Since 1997 After Takeover Rejected http://t.co/H2NqgiyDbP A currency is less valuable when use is restricted $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Rice Bond Flop Adds to Yingluck Protest Misfortune http://t.co/3IFN70XXof Feels a little like 1997, could b messy in emerging markets $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • How Poland Became Europe’s Most Dynamic Economy http://t.co/mZCypvUwd8 Great, but just watch the outsized entitlement liabilities $$ $SPY Nov 29, 2013
  • Paul Krugman’s Blind Spot http://t.co/CsdsuCEMLb The countries that did not increase their deficits have done better than those that did $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Zeppelins Seen Hauling Caterpillars to Mine Siberia http://t.co/u6gK2dcwMv Fascinating way 2 move heavy machines 2 mines in Siberia $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Rich Russians Sparring With Putin Over $48B Olympics Bet http://t.co/oZYB1yjLc7 Cloudy view of who pays 4 & benefits from building Sochi $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Pope Urges Countries Regulate Markets in Poverty Battle http://t.co/3IBNhhdqaV Jorge Bergoglio doesn’t understand the Bible; thus he errs $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • In Iran, Obama Achieves 50% of His Goals http://t.co/sOrvEn0zPK If everyone is unhappy, it might be a good deal; looks like Iran is happy $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Europe’s Easy-Money Policy Snubs German Savers http://t.co/4Dx9vNk2nd Germans should take vacations in Portugal, Italy, Greece, & Spain $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Islamists Settle on Turkey-Syria Border as War Blurs Lines http://t.co/cytuvPcIg8 Multiple player wars r inherently unstable & risky $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Extremist Tide Poses Growing Threat to Europe, Katainen Says http://t.co/oZpeYEvTpi Euro puts nations in a straitjacket, fuels extremists $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • All for One: Xi Jinping and China’s New Deal http://t.co/ZReOpUO5ro Argues that the Chinese govt continues to centralize, not so sure $$ Nov 24, 2013
  • The Weekend Interview with Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal http://t.co/pMd7xoDxjr Policies that favor Israel & Saudi Arabia r the same $$ Nov 24, 2013

?

Financial Sector

 

  • San Jose Pension Crush Spurs Bid to Ease California Pacts http://t.co/rLYJrZE3OT State laws will change 2allow cuts 2 nonaccrued benefits $$ Nov 30, 2013
  • Foreclosed Sales at US Auctions Double as Prices Gain http://t.co/AG75jENQ14 This is a good sign; B careful 2get a clean title if buying $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Wall Street Props CLO Boom as Rules Lift Costs http://t.co/BZPdxJePL2 Get them out the door b4 new regulations require risk retention $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Banks may pay $105B more to settle mortgage tab http://t.co/BhJdAHIwpR Did the banks even *make* $150B from 2005-8? Who gets the fine $$ ? Nov 27, 2013
  • Could banks charge fees for deposits? http://t.co/six4Q4UG8U Yes they could if the Fed tries to loosen policy further $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • How Regulators Will Toughen the Volcker Rule http://t.co/j5N620NF7P This is an impossible task & will result in lawsuits galore $$ #fail Nov 27, 2013
  • Speed Traders Meet Nightmare on Elm Street With Nanex http://t.co/k6ZUSSIprs Slanted article downplays Nanex’s insights on the markets $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • London Gold Fix Calls Draw Scrutiny Amid Heavy Trading http://t.co/cVB0xib8bZ Very difficult to eliminate all unfairness in benchmarks $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Wall Street May Take Derivatives Regulator to Court http://t.co/R9KrxGlPn6 Arbitrariness in issuing regulations leads 2 pushback $$ $SPY Nov 25, 2013
  • Tackling The Fed: Jeb Hensarling’s Promise At Cato http://t.co/z2JqO2fAfQ After 100 yrs, it is time to review our $$ state of affairs Nov 25, 2013
  • Nonprofit that flipped homes to investors faces scrutiny http://t.co/tIBCJ9hfYC Not necessarily illegal, perhaps unethical, sneaky $$ Nov 25, 2013

 

Companies? & Industries

 

  • Repsol Deal With Argentina Was Propelled by Pemex http://t.co/trdr6hL6Oe Pemex mediates/wins, $REP loses, gets $$, $YPF free, Argent wins Nov 29, 2013
  • How Alyssa Milano Created a Fan-Gear Fashion Empire for Women http://t.co/XhCMON9WC8 Create clothes women like in team colors, not pink $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Judge Approves ResCap Settlement W/Housing Regulator http://t.co/5sVjJyEIkw Unsec debt recovers 35%; I remember when they were hot stuff $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Maker of Nutella and Tic Tacs Confident in Family Hands http://t.co/SmFZnx3YUT Profitable organic growth &staying private. Smart strategy $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Clean Wind Farms Catch Up to Dirty Big Oil http://t.co/flu7fSKHXb The comments section is replete w/replies on the many ways birds die $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Kobe Bryant’s $50M Shows Salary Cap Is Ruining NBA http://t.co/LPGUIX4vH2 Easiest way 2ruin a professional sports team is pay star 2much $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • For-Profit Colleges Face Consumer Bureau Probe on Lending Roles http://t.co/6EwvbpIYKf Student debt is a lousy deal avoid it if u can $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Western Digital unwraps hybrid-data-storage system http://t.co/yiz1SR1HE1 Best of both worlds @ reasonable cost SSD&HDD $$ FD: + $WDC Nov 25, 2013
  • Monsanto vs. Mutant Crop Developers in Global Seed Market http://t.co/rYzs7109QS There r multiple ways of creating new strains, y fight? $$ Nov 24, 2013

 

Politics & Policy

 

  • Obama?s call to close Vatican embassy is ‘slap in the face’ to Roman Catholics http://t.co/BcN3f8za2s True enough, but I don’t c the need $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Stay Home, America http://t.co/r11xLhn31Y Commentary on trying to turn Thanksgiving into a shopping day & what it costs us as a culture $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • What a Higher Minimum Wage Does for Workers and the Economy http://t.co/zawtVXr35p Democracy doomed if people vote 4 $$ from Treasury->them Nov 27, 2013
  • Should We Bail Out Cities? http://t.co/k64XxNAiR5 Answer: no, we shouldn’t. Most bailout r in areas we knew were high risk already $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Not so sure: Democrats Give Up 2014 With the Filibuster http://t.co/AV5HU94NLH It’s a long way to the 2014 & 2016 elections $$ $SPY $TLT Nov 25, 2013
  • Rebirth Eludes Baltimore as Camden Reality Lags Promises http://t.co/e8NKriEsWV Professional sports arenas r economic idol 4 destruction $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • The Senate Goes Nuclear, Fallout to Come http://t.co/GBifaO09X8 A discourse on protecting the rights of the minority, a la the Founders $$ Nov 24, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Warren Buffett and Time-Horizon Arbitrage http://t.co/92rVk5rbYF Buffett as a quality GARP manager; challenge is finding durable moats $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Why Are Takeover Prices Plummeting? http://t.co/23tjJCDIkl Interesting 2c a lack of fervor among acquirers during high valuations $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Madness & Sanity http://t.co/4HJTIUOLi8 It is flattering to be quoted at such great length; Good thing that I do not enforce copyright $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Stock Market Trading: The 20 Rules Of Engagement http://t.co/Hnm2anKYVx Useful rules 4short-term traders from the estimable Todd Harrison $$ Nov 27, 2013

 

PPACA / Obamacare

 

  • Hit-and-Miss Obamacare Site Still Frustrating at Deadline http://t.co/Urchj3yyQc It could never have been fully fixed by 11/30 $$ $TLT $SPY Nov 29, 2013
  • A Fight Over Contraception Won’t Help Obamacare http://t.co/Wv0iQ10e2c Tie PPACA 2 abortion & the fight is unlikely 2 ever end $$ Nov 29, 2013
  • Even Subsidized Obamacare Plans Haven’t Found Takers Yet http://t.co/ERjKs9etHm Particularly among the young & healthy it doesn’t help $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Is Obamacare Challenging Enough for Obama? http://t.co/8ICoSBbtT1 Astounding to hear an ideologue like Margaret Carlson criticize Obama $$ Nov 27, 2013
  • Manias, Panics and ObamaCare Crashes http://t.co/2xklhLaW8p PPACA was fatally flawed, the work of ideologues who don’t get healthcare $$ Nov 24, 2013

Other

 

  • Startup Scrambles to Replace the Egg http://t.co/h2RU6UXGuY Intriguing idea 2try 2replace eggs w/ingredients commonly fed 2 chickens $$ $TSN Nov 25, 2013
  • When Marketing Is Strategy http://t.co/aiUTS3C3O5 Adapt your products & services 2 meet needs of consumers 4 convenience & effectiveness $$ Nov 25, 2013
  • Magnus Carlsen’s Win in Chess Championship Shows Powerful Role of Computers http://t.co/pyG2He9iz9 Computers improve the abilities of men $$ Nov 24, 2013
An Alternative To Federal Reserve Forward Guidance

An Alternative To Federal Reserve Forward Guidance

I hesitate to write this piece, because I think doing this would be a bad thing.? Then again, I don’t believe that most of the jawboning done by the Fed is useful.

So let the Fed put its money where its mouth is, and, hey, improve its asset-liability match in the process.? After all, over the last five years, the Fed discovered that they have an asset side of their balance sheet.? They decide that they can try to twist the Treasury curve, lowering long rates, and stimulate the housing market via QE.

But aside from monetizing debt, which often leads to serious inflation, QE has not shown much potency to do anything good.? Thus the Fed thinks that enhanced guidance will be the tool to use to breathe life into this over-leveraged economy.? A possible example: “We promise not to raise the Fed funds rate until 2017.”

Deeds, not words, I say.? I challenge the Fed to do the following: Offer multiple tenors (maturities) of Fed funds.? At present, Fed Funds is an overnight rate.? Offer 1, 3 and 6-month Fed funds.? Offer 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10-year Fed funds.? Give the banks the ability to lock in funds for lending or investing for longer amounts of time.? Create the Fed funds yield curve.

Rather than merely promise that Fed funds will remain low for so many years, offer banks a way to have a guarantee of low Fed funds rates for that time period.? That would be powerful.? Whether it would be powerful for good is another matter.? Personally, I doubt it would be good, and I think the same of enhanced guidance.

In doing this, the Fed might realize that they have a liability side of the balance sheet, and one that does not have a zero duration.? If they have long term assets, why not long term liabilities?

Sigh.? In the old days it was easy.? The Fed did not have an over-leveraged economy, and so they invested in short-dated Treasuries, and adjusted Fed funds as their major policy lever.? Open market operations took care of the rest.

Introducing long term liabilities to the Fed means that policy accommodation can no longer be removed instantly.? The longer dated Fed funds would only shift as it matures.? It would give strength to monetary policy in the short run, but weaken it in the long run.? But hey, we are a short-run society, so why should we care?? Bleed our grandchildren dry, and have the great-grandchildren ready to be bled for our good.

Eventually we have to question why we are pursuing policies that harm the long-run in order to goose the short-run. Once we start doing that, we might be on the road to maturity, even if it means we get a severe recession, or even a depression.? The “greatest generation” was the greatest because of character formed out of depression and war.? Sad that they sucked the blood of their grandchildren via Social Security and Medicare.? We live with the results of their short-term thinking.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

US Government Shutdown

 

  • To Lead Is to Negotiate http://t.co/AJTjPESgiI Elements of an interview w/James Baker describing Reagan the pragmatic dealmaker $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Pig Sales Fly Blind as Data Cut by Shutdown Hampers Firms http://t.co/MHHnn29XXH Guess what? That’s the way most markets operate $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Troops Forage for Food While Golfers Play On in Shutdown http://t.co/Y9HV5IpF3A “the appropriations process has completely failed” $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Obama Rewrites Debt-Limit History http://t.co/BIRNHLH7Pm D&R Congresses have used the borrowing limit as political leverage w/a president $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • US banks fearing default stock up on cash http://t.co/tYXMlQXcIe If money markets freeze, currency will be needed to mediate exchange $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Loose monetary policy needed to counter Washington gridlock: Fed officials http://t.co/AmJqqcMQPQ Fed enables intransigence of congress $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Republicans Are No Longer the Party of Business http://t.co/Vwa5U0pENS Case not proven; as if the Democrats think of any biz but big biz $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Frustrated Republicans Pressure Boehner to End Shutdown http://t.co/m6eSEtXQ5n Likely endgame: Democrats & liberal GOP ally in House $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • US Stocks Rise as Investors See Limited Shutdown Impact http://t.co/nB5WCCcsd4 Will they say the same thing today off neg mkt action? $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Behind the Noise, Entitlement Reform http://t.co/Ed2ug8HoCN This is the elephant in the room; the economic problem behind all the rest $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • More Than 800,000 Federal Workers Are Furloughed http://t.co/GP0XdAxugH Oddly, this helps point out what true priorities of the govt r $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • In Government Shutdown, Few Parallels With Most Recent One http://t.co/RmJ7X3iL0Q Maybe shutdown is an alternative mode of running govt? $$ Oct 01, 2013

?

Companies & Industries

?

  • Twitter Look-Alike Ticker Triggers 684% Advance in Penny Stock http://t.co/hLf2VRP6Hs Big difference btw Twitter $TWTR & Tweeter $TWTRQ $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Mars Repays $4.4B of Berkshire Bonds Tied to Wrigley Deal http://t.co/U5uSgTXBd8 Now Buffett has tough job of redeploying capital $$ #cash Oct 04, 2013
  • Twitter Sends Different Message Than Facebook in Filing http://t.co/azMDDPHVwz 32 pages of risk factors, no classified stock, refreshing $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Blackstone Opens Europe Spigot as Distressed Deals Surge http://t.co/yYQl2dwhzS As EU banks get reasonable, $BX sees opportunity 4 deals $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Alcoa on ?low risk financiers? and parallel metal markets http://t.co/ganjSH2aZg With low interest rates, cheaper to store metal $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Beanie Baby Creator Pleads Guilty to Swiss Bank Tax Dodge http://t.co/V8PrsbKEAO He’ll make up the $$ w/a line of Ty the Jailbird dolls Oct 03, 2013
  • We Are Googling the New York Times to Death http://t.co/OLJ0XsSCRA Use Google 2get free access to the $NYT – broken media revenue model $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • OGX Upheaval Portends Deeper Bond Loss for Pimco http://t.co/m9Do3MALyM BK is tough on creditors in Brazil; long process, low recoveries $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • How BlackBerry blew it:The inside story http://t.co/4K7Kw4Y5bL Long article as $BBRY focuses on core biz, misses threat from new entrants $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Schwarzman Says Selling BlackRock Was ?Heroic? Mistake http://t.co/G8ZKjxNOZ0 Missed out on 79%/yr returns compounded over 19 years! $$ $BLK Oct 01, 2013
  • BlackBerry Rare Breakup Fee Seen Deterring Bids http://t.co/uyo9Ra1zzA Watsa gets a free look, while others effectively locked out $$ $BBRY Oct 01, 2013
  • Why Anglo American Walked Away From Pebble Mine Gold Deposit http://t.co/QwqmjykuD9 Interesting, but only speculations on y $AAUKY left $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Commodities ?Super Cycle? Is Seen Enduring by McKinsey http://t.co/Jnj1XwZNKO Marginal costs keep rising as lower costs ores deplete $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Storage Wars Seize Metals Market http://t.co/WkX0fsOx3o Aiming 2end games that lock up metal in storage as collateral for loans, I think $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Falcone?s Funds Sell Harbinger Group Shares to Leucadia http://t.co/2l8dSyEPKP $HRG funds sell shares 2 $LUK @ a 20% discount 2 mkt price $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Of course $LUK has 2 hold onto the shares 4 a while, but still that’s a pretty stiff price 2 pay 4 liquidity $$ $HRG Oct 01, 2013

?

Finance, Pensions, Etc.

?

  • More Than 5,000 Stockbrokers From Expelled Firms Still Selling Securities http://t.co/E5lczvdLJP Don’t buy what someone wants 2 sell 2u $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • How to Look Under a Hedge Fund’s Hood http://t.co/oKy6ZQWo1q There’s more 2ask than this, but these 7 questions r a good start $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Hedge Funds Used Obscure Bond Bet to Win in GM Bankruptcy http://t.co/SaLKh7sg9Q They did hard work with their brains, & won $$ #distressed Oct 04, 2013
  • 8 Incredible Shares On StockTwits About Hedge Fund Market Wizard Ray Dalio http://t.co/tjQ9ecAF1A I added two more resources $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Time to Ditch the Yale Endowment Model?http://t.co/aYWfleXE7R Similar to an article I wrote 4 years ago http://t.co/2ox3Zzdaac $$ @M_C_Klein Oct 04, 2013
  • S&P 500 Pension Status Continues to Improve in September http://t.co/tyL1fqCivB Rising prices for risky assets & more contributions help $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Peak-population investing http://t.co/0I5s49iBBC Demographics affect inflation – goods inflation w/many young asset inflation w/many old $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • 10 Terms Investment Pros Use to Raise Money @Reformedbroker http://t.co/cHivwK8uvh Points @ 10 buzzwords w/fuzzy meanings & little truth $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Option-Selling Is Not Income http://t.co/zdiP91nKsK Well written,& it needs 2b said. Option “income” vs capital losses & opportunity costs $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Eric Schneiderman, Wall Street Time-Machine Sheriff http://t.co/trSBh80ObO Dig deep enough in2 any multiparty trnsctn & u will find dirt $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • In multiparty transactions, u have 2b careful. Who has more info than u? How r incentives aligned? Y r u lucky one invited 2play w/them? $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Student-Loan Straitjacket http://t.co/1keTvDykpV They should look at income-based repayment plans; in many cases they would pay far less $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Fab Tourre Wants Another Chance to Explain http://t.co/X4H8b70hVi Did Tourre withhold mind-chging information deal players were entitled2 $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Inter-dealer brokers? inside information @FelixSalmon http://t.co/cCcVMM3foF What is fraud vs making/arbing a mkt? http://t.co/6aKN6t0Abw $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Top 20 Films about Finance: From Crisis to Con Men http://t.co/nDv0Rz4P4P I added on the film “The Billion Dollar Bubble” Equity Funding $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Gibraltar Seen as Europe-Beater for Finance Professionals http://t.co/YzHgQRv82A Perhaps more money per hectare than any other place $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Commodity Trader Didn’t Really Believe in Market Prices http://t.co/qVEC4lQB8u Citi mismarked illiquid exchange-traded ethanol contracts $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • This Sociological Theory Explains Why Wall Street Is Rigged 4 Crisis http://t.co/ff6NWs1GOO Technological efficient w/odd feedback loops $$ Oct 01, 2013

?

PPACA / Obamacare

 

  • Overwhelming Demand 4 Obamacare Shows Potential Success http://t.co/4i3Kb6P8SN Success?? Show you what happened 2me http://t.co/vlrqUxFXzr Oct 04, 2013
  • How ObamaCare Wrecks the Work Ethic http://t.co/3U2z8PKPwR Saw this a month ago, subsidies raise marginal tax rates 4 lower middle class $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • The Republicans Fighting Obamacare Aren?t Crazy http://t.co/A61poB4ArU PPACA *can* b repealed, but would take a GOP swing in 2016 2do it $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Why must the American people suffer when even so many Democrats don’t want Obamacare? http://t.co/uJfncEetS7 Congress exempts itself $$ Sep 28, 2013

 

Civil Liberties in Cyberspace

 

  • NSA chief admits misleading numbers, adds to Obama administration blunders http://t.co/wsS2qrIW74 Politicians overstate metadata value $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • NSA Involvement in NIST Encryption Standards Could Make Companies Less Competitive http://t.co/RzRVSYVtiv Does NSA demand backdoors? $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • On NSA’s encryption defeating efforts: Trust no 1 http://t.co/afq1Fjngzv Big companies r in cahoots w/NSA, can’t b trusted, r lying 2us $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • NSA Gathers Data on Social Connections of U.S. Citizens http://t.co/oVIYLWdHFi The NSA endangers our civil liberties; we need to end it $$ Sep 30, 2013

 

Monetary Policy

?

  • Will Unconventional Monetary Policy Be the New Normal? http://t.co/nN00ta4UIM Fed is hopeless; they don’t get they r inflating assets $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Aluminum Prices: Blame It on the Fed http://t.co/kgjOTbNeqd Low interest rates lead to loans collateralized by aluminum $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Don?t Cry for Me, Ben Bernanke http://t.co/unN01G8N8K Developing Countries should get ready for the eventual Fed tightening, if they can $$ Oct 01, 2013

?

Banking

 

  • The Bailout That Never Came http://t.co/cROhzGqjYB Bailout for homeowners was half-hearted at best; 4 banks it was a warm friendly hug $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Banks abandon mortgage preapprovals http://t.co/ro6NE8T5Yb Makes the purchases of homes more complex b/c likelihood of financing down $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Are Banks Forward-Looking in Their Loan Loss Provisioning? http://t.co/1V6ytChwB2 I would be more inclined to think it is a “cookie jar” $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • The JP Morgan apologists of CNBC http://t.co/HJgOH3NGvT Media often panders 2 power or they lose access to the powerful people $$ Oct 01, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Duke to NYU Missteps Abroad Lead Colleges to Reassess Expansion http://t.co/1ZoHGD2CeP Have 2 make sure of a good cultural fit first $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Freak Grape-Razing Hail Crushes Burgundy Winemakers? Dreams http://t.co/rxSiKaRpvl 2years of hailstorms destroy the prospects of vintners $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Migrant Ship Sinks Off Italian Island, Killing Dozens http://t.co/KCYgVt0Bx8 Europe is Elysium 4 these migrants; US is the same 4 others $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • NFL Free-Agent Lawyer to Unlock $16B in NCAA Athletes http://t.co/nfitchpsSt Free student labor may disappear; may hit big programs hard $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Moon walker demo lets wannabe astronauts feel 0.17G http://t.co/BsenBrl8ck Cool. Could b used 4physical therapy after severe leg injuries $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Educators in the art of life must have chance of their own http://t.co/HxiCZUOyP3 Certain college depts survive on low paid p/t academics $$ Oct 02, 2013
  • Worried About Cancer? Get Married http://t.co/PQFp8Q67SD A man & a woman who get & stay married tend to take care of each other $$ #healthy Oct 01, 2013
  • Gangnam-Style Nip and Tuck Draws Tourists to Seoul?s Beauty Belt http://t.co/2nC182RWtV Plastic surgery becomes a tourist draw 2 Seoul $$ Oct 01, 2013

 

US Politics & Policy

 

  • Small town, big impact: Supreme Court case could define religion’s role in public http://t.co/oD09WqaOaT Govt Ceremonial deism may end $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • Who Do You Believe: The White House and Wall Street ? or the American People? http://t.co/ZIRZDU1i5p Economic Confidence continues 2drop $$ Oct 03, 2013
  • Bankrupt Stockton Plan Favors Retirees Over Creditors http://t.co/yZ80M5s5lz Will b difficult 2get thru BK city, unless emplyee benes cut $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • ‘Strings Attached’ Co-Author Offers Solutions for Education http://t.co/BMF9zPqMU6 I learned the most from teachers that were hard on me $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Panel Finds Planes Can Handle Use of Electronic Devices http://t.co/hCnZNFfR98 At last, the bad science crumbles & freedom increases $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • The most predictable economic crisis? http://t.co/XAqVj9QZ9S Implicitly, entitlement reform lies behind almost all our problems in DC $$ Oct 01, 2013
  • Why I Am Cancelling My Documentary on Hillary Clinton http://t.co/oKxLjUwRDZ No openness from the Clintons dooms a documentary from CNN $$ Oct 01, 2013

 

 

Replies, Retweets & Comments

 

  • 2 all who follow me on Twitter, my account was hacked, & someone sent out a bunch of spam tweets & DMs that I would never send. My apologies Oct 01, 2013

 

  • @kltblom when the amount of range for premium variation is only three, it is not a workable system. Anti-selection will occur. Oct 05, 2013
  • @M_C_Klein I started out as an Asset-Liability Management actuary, and I have traded in illiquid securities, makes me think differently Oct 05, 2013
  • @kltblom Removed deduction for employer-paid healthcare. Encouraged HSAs, and try to move to predominantly first-party payer model Oct 05, 2013
  • @TheUncorrelated I willprobably write an article on this next week. Will sound like the one I cited b4 & like: http://t.co/Y8CA0LX9Qi Oct 05, 2013
  • @kltblom I’m an actuary; since the PPACA was proposed, the health actuaries I have talked with have said tht PPACA won’t work Oct 04, 2013
  • ‘ @JonathanWeil Say run rate EBITDA for 2013 is $50M. If Market Cap of $TWTR is $12B, that is an astounding EV/EBITDA of 240 $$ #nosebleed Oct 04, 2013
  • @_DM0_ I can confirm that, they have taken down the slides. Pity, quickest way to absorb the material Oct 04, 2013
  • @Kitsune808 It is not infrequent that @BloombergNews Headlines are misleading, or quirky. They march to the beat of a different drummer Oct 04, 2013
  • @PlanMaestro I know, but given attention to the video, I thought I would show the PDF that better fleshes out his position. and the slides Oct 04, 2013
  • Thanks @onlineawards @TightTalk @valuetakes for being top new followers in my community this week (insight via http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Oct 04, 2013
  • “”Spain?s public debt in 2014 is expected to be the equivalent of 98.9 percent of total economic?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/HPR50Rjijp $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • “Two more: 9) And for those that want to read Ray Dalio’s economic template book, it is free here:” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/QLWdRs1odG $$ Oct 04, 2013
  • @ToddSullivan A computer could do it anywhere by minimizing the distance of internal boundaries subject to equal popoulations. Not hard. Oct 04, 2013
  • @ToddSullivan We need structural reform 2 end that given gerrymandered districts. A lot of people want change, but districts not competitive Oct 04, 2013
  • @kltblom If PPACA were mere risk pooling, I might agree. It is a messy ugly law that ignores basic actuarial principles & will not work well Oct 04, 2013
  • @volatilitysmile They give us different pieces of the puzzle (insight by http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Oct 04, 2013
  • #FollowFriday Thanks @ReformedBroker @pelias01 @researchpuzzler for being top influencers in my community this week 🙂 Oct 04, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker The Baby Boomers gray, and money socked away, let finance guys play, make dough every day. Thus so many wealthy $$ managers. Oct 04, 2013
  • Thanks @ToddSullivan @ReformedBroker for being top engaged members in my community this week (insight via http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Oct 03, 2013
  • Thanks @TightTalk @BabyFreshNuggz @X9T_Trading for being top new followers in my community this week (insight via http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Oct 01, 2013
  • Thanks @moneyscience @TopInvestBlogs for being top engaged members in my community this week (insight via http://t.co/sern3wLA13) Sep 30, 2013
  • @RexHuppke You are a real man, unlike many today. You may be stupid, but at least you are taking action, rather than compromising w/losers Sep 28, 2013
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