Macroeconomics – Page 36

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 10 August 2012 by David Merkel

Life Insurance Secondary Guarantees

Hartford Mulls Client Buyouts to Cut Risk Buffett Called Ungodly http://t.co/Nv4jRlUC Advice: don’t take the Variable Annuity buyouts $$ Aug 10, 2012
The original: Buffett Says Insurers Took ‘Ungodly Amount of Risk’ http://t.co/pXfXv8ME Warren Buffett again is prescient cc: @PlanMaestro $$ Aug 10, 2012
@PlanMaestro Thanks4 flagging this. Together w/companies scaling back gtees 4 new prods, the buyout offers show the probs in the life biz $$ Aug 10, 2012
@PlanMaestro I am not in favor of peer review. Actuaries call themselves a “profession,” but they really technicians. Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Regulators not crazy for this, because they can’t understand it, & almost makes the companies self-regulating. Peer Review? $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro But actuaries are trying to get regulators to cmove to a Canadian-style principle based approach. In Actuaries we Trust! $$ + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro But the devil is in the details, and GAAP reserving does not always reflect antiselection. Stat tries to do that, but + $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro But you’re right, the 10Ks do contain approximate partial sensitivity data on economic value for most important variables $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro In 1999, I saw a VA that guaranteed 7% minimum return if held till death or annuitization $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro I said “Wow, how do you guarantee the better of 5%/yr and performance of the underlying 4 just 2.25%?” $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro I have a friend who is a $PRU agent. One day he showed me his hottest-selling VA product, and ask me how I liked it. $$ + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Acctg can get really screwy if you hedge NPV or FMV; gets really noisy because the results pile up in the current year $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro hedging long-dated options, w/complex contingencies built into them. Do you hedge next few years, or NPV sensitivity? $$ + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro I was an ALM actuary for many years, typically we hedged partial durations; fixed income hedging is easy, what’s hard is $$ + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro many exposures are impossible to hedge b/c the contracts r long-term, and hedge instruments r usually far shorter $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro That’s one of my concerns about the life industry; secondary guarantees r virtually impossible to reserve, getting big now $$ Aug 09, 2012

Insurance Industry

@ReformedBroker Good post, same thing happens with young life insurance agents to a degree http://t.co/LbMyo48G $$ Aug 10, 2012
@Bonfire_Sherman P&C – P/TB vs ROTE, adjusted 4 business mix, reserve life & conservatism, mgmt quality, U/W cycle, never premiums $$ Aug 09, 2012
@Bonfire_Sherman Most of it is change in required capital. Life actuaries typically calculate “distibutable earnings” reflting stat & RBC $$ Aug 09, 2012
Anytime anyone talks about Financial Cos & tells u about Free Cash Flow, ask how they did the calc. C if they mention chg in req capital $$ Aug 09, 2012
Wrong: 3 Life Insurance Stocks Undervalued By Levered Free Cash Flows http://t.co/gF5HYRZb GAAP financials don’t have data4 FCF calcs $$ Aug 09, 2012
Aviva profits fall as it cuts the value of its US unit http://t.co/t816IjAZ Amerus IR was annoyed @ me 4saying the orignal deal expensive $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro HIG is next on my list Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Thanks, I know where to get them, but I have enough GNW on my plate for now, I took me two weeks to write my AIG piece. $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Have not looked at HIG, after I am done with GNW may take a look. If u r looking at stat acctg, look @ pg 5 indiv annuities $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro That’s the thing, like AIG prior to the crisis, and Scottish Re, they are capital constrained; things have 2go right 4 them $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro & not so sure about the rest if investing for more than five years. $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Aye, agreed. Oddly, my interest stemmed from a reader who asked me if I would invest in GNW bonds. Yes 4 GIC-MTNs + Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro I’m going to write a broad piece about it, but follow it up, with a narrow piece focusing on the specific problems. $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro Intercompany surplus notes and preferred stock too. Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro There’s a ton. Underreserving, capital stacking, capital interlacing, intercompany reinsurance, & I’ve ony been looking 2 hours Aug 09, 2012
@Bonfire_Sherman Good guess, I need to look at the life co stmts someday, esp. page 5 for Indiv annuities Aug 09, 2012
Ding! We have a winner! RT @RennieScinto: @AlephBlog gnw? Aug 09, 2012
I’m a fun guy, looking @ statutory statements of a major US insurer, though AIG in 2008 looked worse, this company doesn’t look good $$ Who? Aug 09, 2012
Online Dating for Homes Stumps Insurers http://t.co/R2fmztPa Y not have both deposit $$ w/the insurer plus a premium payment? #wouldwork Aug 08, 2012
Regulators Probe ‘Captives’ http://t.co/xbXQ5aYO How to bend life insurance reserves. Catch my comment: http://t.co/9WQWYZ3W $$ Aug 06, 2012
Berkshire Trims Municipal-Debt Bet http://t.co/9zhhbdtD Meredith Whitney, no. Buffett, yes. But even he is only selectively reducing $$ Aug 05, 2012

Poway School District

Article near issuance of Poway School District CAB http://t.co/kxAWCNxT Letter from CA AG: http://t.co/UiZM0j3K cc: @munilass @jamessaft $$ Aug 06, 2012
@jamessaft I’m not a muni expert like @munilass, but no, I would try to find another way to refinance prior debts. $$ Aug 06, 2012
Ideal buyer4the preceding bond would b Buffett, or a P&C company w/long-tail liabilities. Prospectus 4 wonks only http://t.co/nIKJvJje $$ Aug 06, 2012
Where Borrowing $105 Million Will Cost $1 Billion: Poway Schools http://t.co/IPaABoXY Paying 7.6% IRR at a duration of 25. Astounding! $$ Aug 06, 2012
@munilass Also, I found the prospectus here: http://t.co/nIKJvJje Last Q: Do county tax levies into a sinking fund ever fail to work? $$ Aug 06, 2012
@munilass I get the holder taxes now. Poway was structured as a series of zero coupon notes, followed by 2 series of long lottery bonds $$ Aug 06, 2012
@munilass Used to be an asset-liability manager, so I look for that. 1 question: do you know how holders are taxed on a deal like that? Aug 06, 2012
@munilass This is just a crude estimate, but the IRR on the Poway deal is around 7.7%, and is nonrefinancable. Duration estimate 25 years $$ Aug 06, 2012

Rest of the World

China Export Growth Slides as World Recovery Slows http://t.co/u4YEUPQB China sneezes & the world catches a cold? no, important anyway $$ Aug 10, 2012
India?s Biggest Corporate Loss Shows Singh?s Dilemma on Deficit http://t.co/6xl7lsZD Force oil company to lose $$, eventually lose oil co. Aug 10, 2012
Housewives With Frying Pans Protest Japan Tax Hike as Debt Soars http://t.co/z3aeqjEv Taxes to double; can’t keep borrowing 4ever $$ Aug 10, 2012
Virus found in Mideast can spy on finance transactions http://t.co/V2GgyjpV Can spy on financial transactions, email & social networking $$ Aug 09, 2012
Toronto Condo ?Roller Coaster? Peaks as Flaherty Acts http://t.co/c6sJ0CqE Is Canadian housing a basketball (sss) or a bubble (pop)? $$ Aug 08, 2012
Iran?s Big Crisis: The Price of Chicken http://t.co/WXlUIIdL Describes some the economic difficulties of Iran under sanctions $$ Aug 08, 2012
Article makes a good point. The industries where China has overcapacity are power-intensive & are shrinking. Simple. http://t.co/IzyV0Bxe Aug 08, 2012
China’s answer to subprime bets: the “Golden Elephant” http://t.co/MP7LviwT Illiquid investments touting high returns w/lousy business $$ Aug 07, 2012
RE: Things are getting less equal in the US, because we allow more freedom here.? Globally, things are getting more e? http://t.co/WeGEEJF9 Aug 07, 2012
Presidential candidate up by 15%+ in August will win. If merely ahead, 9 times out of 12 he will win the Presidency http://t.co/soCj7Kf9 Aug 08, 2012
Swiss Banks Face Slow Death as Taxman Chases Assets http://t.co/13I9NkiQ Life’s tough when u can no longer help people cheat the taxman $$ Aug 06, 2012
Germany has the most to lose from a meltdown http://t.co/9JTwRfii Basically encourages an inflationary “solution.” Prob won’t work $$ Aug 06, 2012
If policymakers are worried about this, they are worried about the wrong thing. EU does not have that big… http://t.co/eCBlZg5I Aug 06, 2012
Summary: greater structural unity, mutualization of sovereign debts and a weak euro $$ Tough order for the… http://t.co/KN9pc0Pt Aug 06, 2012
Rogoff Sees World Wishing It?s America Year After S&P Downgrade http://t.co/MpStm7ww Relative flexibility pays off $$ Aug 06, 2012

Fixed Income

Lending in the offshore markets developed because of bad regulations here. It is outside US control & we should not m? http://t.co/C8y9rVFw Aug 10, 2012
In hunt for yield, hybrids flourish anew http://t.co/GCugG6A6 Credit rally revsup ppl grab yield in exchange 4 higher poss loss severity $$ Aug 09, 2012
Please, no $$ RT @CapitalCityIFR: In hunt for yield, hybrids flourish anew http://t.co/ZWbdRRl5 Aug 09, 2012
For a bad 30-yr Tsy auction, nice rally since then $$ Aug 09, 2012
A Greek banker, the Shah and the birth of Libor http://t.co/ibvVs9mE ht: @alea_ Started w/a loan 2 the Shah. Inauspicious start 4a big # $$ Aug 09, 2012
Definitely a weak auction, surprised long end not selling off $$ RT @ritholtz: 30 yr bond auction weak as well http://t.co/1gU89HMb $$ Aug 09, 2012
“Credit default swaps are easily manipulated. Rather, watch the bond market; it’s much bigger. $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/tESmTJsK Aug 09, 2012

Politics

The Neocon War Against Robert Zoellick http://t.co/vZreHf1n If Romney wins, pragmatic Zoellick could be influential on foreign policy $$ Aug 11, 2012
Christie Does Tenure http://t.co/J8krPlim Tenure is one of those sacred cows that hides the intellectually weak from consequences $$ Aug 10, 2012
In New York City, Microsoft Really Is Watching You http://t.co/trNOkU2d Interesting partnership w/NYC & $MSFT Civil liberties? $$ Aug 09, 2012
Postal Service $1 Million-an-Hour Loss Puts Abyss in View http://t.co/FVXMn5Di Raise stamp prices & costs 2 $FDX & $UPS $$ #simple Aug 09, 2012
Here’s The Real Reason The Feds Are Furious At The NY Regulator Going After Standard Chartered http://t.co/OmpwBILH Made Feds look dumb $$ Aug 08, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Dream, the Republicans will block this because it favors blue states over Red. $$ http://www.bloom? http://t.co/jT7EmSS0 Aug 08, 2012
I think it is a fair tradeoff to lose 2% of GDP in 2013 in order to get the economy growing. I agree with… http://t.co/mwuvnogX Aug 07, 2012
The Numbers Inside a Hot-Button Issue http://t.co/Fwois4YN Something to make everyone unhappy. Me: Don’t focus on rates, but deferral $$ Aug 07, 2012

Pensions & Endowments

State Pensions Get High Fees, Low Profits-Study http://t.co/3LRIL23c Add to that the lack of adequate funding &you have a serious crisis $$ Aug 10, 2012
Cornell, MIT Scale Back Aid Even as Endowments Rise http://t.co/WUoWDLLB Endowments provide less when rates r low, future cashflows smallr Aug 10, 2012
Defined contribution assets hit all-time high despite conservative shift http://t.co/7s9Stabd Amazing 2c bond alloc rising w/low rates $$ Aug 06, 2012
U can say that again $$ RT @e_d_sanders: @AlephBlog now this is an issue I know something about. Public pensions for execs are a nightmare Aug 05, 2012
Police Chief?s $204,000 Pension Shows How Cities Crashed http://t.co/ZorpuSjX Sloppy pension negotiating leads2 L-T cash flow crises. $$ Aug 05, 2012

Energy

Let the market decide.? If people want to pay a lot for gas, let them.? Why is Obama discouraging consumer spending? http://t.co/VT8xCyU0 Aug 10, 2012
Refiners Awash in Shale Oil Offer 10 Times Exxon Returns http://t.co/IIw9xXlb Buy cheap shale oil, ship to coasts, refine, sell & make $$ Aug 10, 2012
Louisiana sinkhole roils local natural gas network http://t.co/IkZxHLAs Now, who could have seen that coming? Risk is pervasive. $$ #sloorp Aug 09, 2012
Coal stocks typically have a lot of debt, beware $$ RT @MKTWBurton: Don?t mine this coal stock – Chuck Jaffe – http://t.co/nCQWfYzQ Aug 09, 2012

Other

Passed 10,000 tweets today. I quit Twitter after my first month, but came back to it after I saw its usefulness. Thanks 4 reading me $$ Aug 10, 2012
Heavy rain in Baltimore w/sleet and sunshine. Really weird weather. Sleet is neat, is hard to beat & will repeat, to make me tweet. $$ #ugh Aug 09, 2012
After Moods & Markets, Bailout is my next book to review. http://t.co/zkioUQ5N Aug 09, 2012
5 Questions Great Job Candidates Ask http://t.co/JpnpVWtu Questions show initiative, intelligence, & give u good jump pts 2 sell yrself $$ Aug 09, 2012
Novel Cure for Ailing Hearts http://t.co/RAiv4FYj Nanotech combines w/vascular endothelial growth factor to grow new heart muscle $$ Aug 09, 2012
Wrong: Business Is Booming in Empirical Economics http://t.co/aTNu4qfu U might get cute papers out of it, but nothing that generalizes $$ Aug 07, 2012

Companies

Yahoo Reviewing Business Strategy, Alibaba Proceeds; Shares Tumble http://t.co/ikk3dpeC Marissa Mayer has plans, & they require $$ Aug 09, 2012
Why Honda?s New Accord Looks Like the Old One http://t.co/6Ez8uL5i FD: + $HMC Designers tire of their designs long b4 users do $$ Aug 09, 2012
The WARN Act dilemma http://t.co/ilbxFsXD Defense, Fiscal cliff, DOL Guidance Letter saying ignore WARN act on 11/1, & elections $$ Aug 09, 2012
Hewlett-Packard?s Whitman Dismantles Hurd-Era Empire http://t.co/ySeeVM9w FD: + $HPQ She seems 2b evaluating each biz separately $$ #good Aug 09, 2012
The New York Times Is About to Say Goodbye to About,com http://t.co/frzrVlUq gives more details on the lossesv$$ Aug 08, 2012
New York Times Shares Rise on Deal to Sell About,com http://t.co/k5GarxXV Amazing how much $NYT lost on it, capital losses, neg income $$ Aug 08, 2012
Judge in Google, Oracle case seeks names of paid reporters, bloggers http://t.co/7vhmK5N3 Fascinating 4bloggers 2b paid $$ by corps quietly Aug 08, 2012
I do not get how http://t.co/ROsNYak3 could be worth $270M. What’s the revenue model? Ads? $$ http://t.co/n1ddWxvU Aug 08, 2012
Wrong: The PC looks like it’s dying http://t.co/IqeVAbi6 Like most tech, when it matures, it finds & stays there. Think of “dead” radio $$ Aug 07, 2012
Amazon Is No Wal-Mart…Yet http://t.co/cmEjPHHu Relatively neutral article on $AMZN by Martin Sosnoff; prob: treats AMZN as retailer $$ Aug 07, 2012
Why FedEx and UPS Want the Postal Service to Survive http://t.co/MAaCfOXQ Solution: raise stamp prices, and prices to $FDX and $UPS $$ #easy Aug 05, 2012

Monetary Policy

Fisher Says More Stimulus May Overburden Central Banks http://t.co/5ZMlKO5G 3-time winner of coveted “FOMC loose cannon award” speaks $$ Aug 08, 2012
Economic Musings – Fed eyeing a new kind of twist? http://t.co/aUezU2XE $$ Extending duration in MBS; creating larger losses later $$ Aug 08, 2012
RE: @bondtrader83 That’s not all that much different than the 1st Twist. It’s duration extension in MBS. Wait till ra? http://t.co/PrMHBSGh Aug 08, 2012
How about quantitative easing for the people? http://t.co/inHK9NF2 Would work better than current QE/Twist etc, but this frightens me. $$ Aug 08, 2012
Wrong: Bernanke to Economists: More Philosophy, Please http://t.co/9638QlHo Been down this road; utility theory doesn’t explain mankind $$ Aug 07, 2012

Housing & Related

Public-Housing Parking Lots Make Everyone Poorer http://t.co/2gensCd8 Set rates to achieve 15% vacancy; Rather than lots, have garages $$ Aug 08, 2012
Home Prices Climb as Supply Dwindles http://t.co/hMoZBsNZ Good news for the low end of the market, high end will take time $$ Aug 08, 2012
Fannie Mae profits rolled into rainy day fund http://t.co/bDWphSuE Good for Fannie & Freddie preferred, not worth anything 4 the common $$ Aug 08, 2012

Financial Companies & Markets

NYSE in talks with SEC to settle data probe http://t.co/FkxBtlbz Wow, faster data feeds 4 some special clients; level the playing field $$ Aug 09, 2012
Are Diamonds an ETF?s Best Friend? http://t.co/RHbSghCw Bad things happen when you take something illiquid and try to make it liquid $$ Aug 08, 2012
Richest Family Offices Seeing Fastest Growth as Firms Oust Banks http://t.co/NqY9650P UberWealthy get $$ talent; tax savings >> costs Aug 07, 2012
4 ETF Lessons From Knight http://t.co/st6wbNgR Lead Market Makers matter, Markets Work, Settlement Works, Illiquid ETFs Need Helpers $$ Aug 06, 2012
Other problem: active etf gives away trading information it might rather not divulge, leading to front-running. $$ http://t.co/q4XXZwRv Aug 06, 2012
A Tale of Two Fund Giants: American Funds vs Vanguard http://t.co/46rFsL9e Key advantage for Vanguard was embracing ETFs early $$ Aug 06, 2012

Repos

Banks? Liquidity Hinges on Risky Assets http://t.co/45Iw5Dz9 Repo lending is subject2runs during credit panics which depress collateral $$ Aug 08, 2012
Good one $$ RT @pdacosta: Watch out for the grim repo-er RT @cate_long Banks? liquidity hinges on risky assets http://t.co/9lk0GjA0 Aug 08, 2012
The danger of repo http://t.co/mZDG9Ocb Repo is weak financing in crisis; 3-mo T-bills would b a better index 4 Tsy floating rate notes $$ Aug 06, 2012

The Equity Premium

That would get the advantage of stocks over high quality bonds down to ~1-2%/year. Outperforms with a *lot* of noise $$ Aug 11, 2012
Bill Gross Is Wrong About Stocks: GMO http://t.co/c6gJwfUB Truth inbetween; have GMO adjust 4 $$ -weighted returns, not time-weighted Aug 11, 2012
Bonds for the Long Run http://t.co/MmkoYk3U @ritholtz nails it. Advantage of stocks over bonds is ~1%/yr over the long haul. Limited data $$ Aug 10, 2012

Comments

@LDrogen After reading this, I have more certainty that airbnb has already worked out some of the bugs http://t.co/Xx3ztVZv $$ Aug 10, 2012
@LDrogen Fine, Leigh, I hope it works. When single party lending gave way to securitization, it was unstoppable, until lending stds died. $$ Aug 10, 2012
RE: @ldrogen Multiple party economic dealings have their issues.? Consider: http://t.co/Z2rRNeTS? http://t.co/gCrEYzX2 Aug 10, 2012
‘ @TheOneDave In a word: depletion. Costs are rising to incremental barrels of oil, and ounces of gold. $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PlanMaestro $CLD LTD/E ~89%, take a look at $HNRG Hallador Energy. I’m not looking @ coal names until I see a few go BK, like steel 2002 $$ Aug 09, 2012
@PragCapitalist Depends on slope of demand curve 4 Tsys. Compare it2the former on-the-run. Jump of 6 bps high for that spot on the curve $$ Aug 08, 2012
@groditi Effective Yield series. Was trying to show that junk yields don’t compress as much when HQ-yields are low. Would have liked OAY $$ Aug 08, 2012
@PragCapitalist If it gets enough assets to survive $$ Aug 08, 2012
@footnoted …and maybe adjs for a year, but large writeoffs mean that prior earnings were overstated; testifies to bad mgmt quality $$ Aug 08, 2012
@footnoted That’s one reason why I tell investors to look at LT growth in BV + Divs rather than op income. I accept adjustments 4 a qtr + $$ Aug 08, 2012
RE: @bloombergview The single period cost to fix might be small, the continuous transfer cost would be considerably l? http://t.co/9gyFVvh4 Aug 08, 2012
RE: @bloombergview When games change from two players to three players, things get messy if no single player has most? http://t.co/TU09OZml Aug 08, 2012
Most pessimistic he’s been on China debts RT @groditi: Wow. I’m used to Pettis’ Euro-pessimism, but he’s not holding back here. U MAD, PROF? Aug 07, 2012
Always a great read RT @groditi: yaaaaaay new Pettis! Aug 07, 2012
@AnaCapMgmt Ain’t true. The foolish models of economists do not take into account political realities, and when inflation runs, no ammo. $$ Aug 05, 2012
@LisaCNBC Ask him how confident he is in India’s power grid. After that, the water supply. $$ Aug 05, 2012
‘ @pvitha Gold moves inversely to real interest rates, a.k.a. cost of carry, that’s all I know. $$ Aug 06, 2012
‘ @WTOP Romney shouldn’t worry about the Fed; they are out of ammo. QE is a joke, as is Operation Twist, and forward fed funds guidance. $$ Aug 05, 2012
+1 I like to say that 🙂 RT @BarbarianCap: “there are more debt claims than resources to pay them at par” Aug 05, 2012

On the Poway School District

Posted on 10 August 201210 August 2012 by David Merkel

I am not an expert on Municipal Bonds, so if an expert reads this, and has corrections for me, please leave corrections in the comments.

In general, I am a conservative guy who avoids situations with a lot of debt.? I am also an actuary and a financial analyst who has a lot of experience with long dated assets.? I know how illiquid they can be, and how violent the price moves can be when they happen.

Most of the discussion here stems from this article: Where Borrowing $105 Million Will Cost $1 Billion: Poway Schools.

There are a few other notable writers who have picked up on this:

But unlike them, I want to give you more data, and less opinion.? For a start, here is the dense prospectus, should you want to review it.

As an aside, I looked at buying a house in Poway back in 1989, when I was considering a job in San Diego with the soon-to-be gone First Capital Holdings.? Poway was what I could afford in such an expensive area.

Financial crises always come at the wrong time.? In 2007, the Poway School District borrowed money to fix up the physical plant of the schools.? They financed it short-term, then in early 2009 issued the “A” notes, financing much of the project, encumbering tax revenues out to 2032, and allowed the rest to float via General Obligation Anticipation Notes.? The “A” series were also capital appreciation bonds, which means they are zero coupon bonds, and the interest comes from buying the bonds at a discount to the face value, and receiving the face value at maturity.? The time period was shorter then the “B” notes, so they were cheaper, and hence less odious.

Given that they had already encumbered tax revenues all the way out to 2032, and had a large amount of debt that they needed to refinance, they needed to issue more permanent debt.? They were already at their maximum level of what they could expect given assumed growth in the property tax base, so what could they do if they wanted to issue more general obligation debt without raising the tax rate?

After getting the assent of the voters in February 2008, to extend tax rates for an estimated additional 11 to 14 years, they issued the “A” notes, and then in 2011, the “B” notes.? The “B” notes picked up where the “A” notes left off.? They would make payments from 2033 through 2051.

Now, anyone who has worked with long duration fixed income (there aren’t many of us) know a few things:

It’s illiquid because there aren’t that many that can fund it for so long.?? It becomes the province of strong balance sheets and speculators.
It’s rare for people to give up current income for capital appreciation over the long haul.? Most people need income over the next 20-30 years.
Slight changes in the interest rate can make a lot of difference to the value of the debt.
When you issue very-long-dated credit-sensitive notes, expect to pay a high yield.? Poway SD is rated Aa2/AA-.? That’s a high rating, but when you say you will pay nothing for 20 years, that injects a lot of uncertainty/risk into the likelihood of payment.

After all, what will the courts be like 20 years from now?? What will the nation be like?? What will we default on or inflate away?? I know that present rules make it difficult for any entity to not repay General Obligation debt, but 20 years from now, things could be different.

The “B” notes, capital appreciatin bonds, that they offered in 2011 refinanced prior debts, and left $21 million to be used as they wished, which raised the hackles of the California Attorney General, though nothing came of that.? Letter from the Attorney General Article on the topic — Second article on the topic

Take a look at the sources an uses of funds:

ESTIMATED SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS

The proceeds of the Series B Bonds are expected to be applied as follows:

Sources of Funds

Principal Amount of Series B Bonds??? $105,000,149.70
Original Issue Premium?????????????????????????????? 21,360,189.45
Total Sources???????????????????????????????????????????? $126,360,339.15

Uses of Funds

Deposit relating to partial payment of
Lease Revenue Bonds(1)????????????????????? ?? ? $98,707,473.55
Deposit for full payment of 2010 Notes 26,270,000.00
Costs of Issuance(2) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? 569,114.44
Underwriter?s Discount????????????????????????????????????? 813,751.16
Total Uses????????????????????????????????????????????????? $126,360,339.15
____________________
(1) Includes $98,327,473.55 for partial payment of the Lease Revenue Bonds and $380,000 for payment of costs associated with refinancing the Lease Revenue Bonds.
(2) Includes, among other things, the fees and expenses of Bond Counsel, the fees and expenses of Disclosure Counsel, the fees and expenses of District Counsel, the fees and expenses of the Paying Agent, the fees and expenses of School District consultants, rating fees, the cost of printing the preliminary and final Official Statements and other costs associated with issuing, selling and delivering the Series B Bonds, as well as costs associated with refinancing the 2010 Notes.

I would note that the premium was entirely applied to the reduction of existing debts.? They may not be debts of the same class, and that makes me wonder.

Now capital appreciation notes are politically controversial.? Here is a White paper from the LA Treasurer, and here is an article about it.? It’s not that different than what you have heard already.? Borrowing using long zero coupon notes is expensive.

Let me show you the cash flow table for the “A” and “B” bonds.

Year	Series A	?	Compounded	Series B	Total
Ending	Total Annual	Principal	Interest	Total Annual	Combined
August 1st	Debt Service	Payment	Payment	Debt Service	Annual
?	?	?	?	?	Debt Service
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017	$3,720,000	$3,720,000.00
2018	4,580,000	4,580,000.00
2019	5,525,000	5,525,000.00
2020	6,560,000	6,560,000.00
2021	7,690,000	7,690,000.00
2022	8,925,000	8,925,000.00
2023	10,275,000	10,275,000.00
2024	11,745,000	11,745,000.00
2025	13,355,000	13,355,000.00
2026	15,095,000	15,095,000.00
2027	17,005,000	17,005,000.00
2028	19,070,000	19,070,000.00
2029	21,350,000	21,350,000.00
2030	23,800,000	23,800,000.00
2031	26,455,000	26,455,000.00
2032	48,960,000	48,960,000.00
2033	16,615,000	6,570,615.00	23,929,385.00	30,500,000.00	47,115,000.00
2034		9,192,225.60	37,487,774.40	46,680,000.00	46,680,000.00
2035		8,803,904.00	39,516,096.00	48,320,000.00	48,320,000.00
2036		8,305,119.90	41,464,880.10	49,770,000.00	49,770,000.00
2037		7,923,383.30	43,086,616.70	51,010,000.00	51,010,000.00
2038		7,522,497.40	44,507,502.60	52,030,000.00	52,030,000.00
2039		7,107,169.80	45,702,830.20	52,810,000.00	52,810,000.00
2040		6,607,225.80	46,732,774.20	53,340,000.00	53,340,000.00
2041		6,072,404.70	47,537,595.30	53,610,000.00	53,610,000.00
2042		5,268,942.40	48,470,788.40	53,739,730.80	53,739,730.80
2043		4,900,657.60	48,974,867.45	53,875,525.05	53,875,525.05
2044		4,557,796.80	49,449,334.50	54,007,131.30	54,007,131.30
2045		4,239,633.60	49,909,078.80	54,148,712.40	54,148,712.40
2046		3,942,536.00	50,332,464.00	54,275,000.00	54,275,000.00
2047		3,237,210.90	51,177,273.40	54,414,484.30	54,414,484.30
2048		3,000,734.10	51,554,365.20	54,555,099.30	54,555,099.30
2049		2,780,993.25	51,904,836.75	54,685,830.00	54,685,830.00
2050		2,577,771.00	52,248,044.00	54,825,815.00	54,825,815.00
2051		2,389,328.55	52,575,671.45	54,965,000.00	54,965,000.00

The “B” bonds kick in after the “A” bonds give out, which means that if future politicians want to do capital improvement projects in the Poway school district, they will have to wait a while, until debt gets paid down.? The present has stripped flexibility from the future.? Who should be surprised, this is the USA.

Now one should argue over whether the expenditures reflect the life of the bonds.? Poway SD says that structures have a 45 year lifespan, and this fits inside that.

But maybe there was a cheaper way to fund this.? Rather than using Capital Appreciation Bonds, maybe a mortgage-style note could have done it, even over 40 years, and at a much cheaper rate.? Even accepting the premium boosted the combined yield of the “B” notes from around 6.9% to 7.6%.

As it is the deal bets on the appreciation of real estate:

Right now, the district receives about $11 million a year from homeowners towards paying off its bonds.

So, to be able to afford its debt payments 20 years from now, the total assessed value of property within the taxed area would have to quadruple.

That’s about 7%/year, which is not impossible if inflation comes.? It is still a difficult target to manage against.

Personally, I think it would be cheaper to do with out the improvements, or add user fees, or raise taxes.? The benefits are going to those living there in the short run, taxes should be similar.

Finally, I would like to note that the “B” bonds appreciated dramatically from their issue prices.? You can see it here: data for the “B” series.? My view is that it was a period of falling interest rates, but that the rate on the Poway “B” note fell more.? Whoever bought and held has made a lot of money, and at the expense of Poway SD taxpayers, who will have to pay more, because of the lame way that the district borrowed.

That said, if you think your area is in better shape, spend some time digging into the numbers, and prove it.

PS — Who would buy a bond like this?? P&C insurers with long tail liabilities, like asbestos and environmental.? But Buffett is cutting down on his munis.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 4 August 2012 by David Merkel

Monetary Policy

Central Banks Can?t Save the World http://t.co/SLzVcZ0r No duh, since printing $$ isn’t productive it can’t do anything to help us. $$ Aug 04, 2012
Another example of how loose monetary policy in the West inflates bubbles in the fringe economies. http://t.co/xA3cKNFh Aug 03, 2012
Central Banks Seek New Crisis Options http://t.co/z3pLZdbw Fed & ECB straining @ the political limits of what they can & should do $$ Aug 02, 2012
SNB-central bank or hedge fund? http://t.co/LFuad30w Policy makers err in thinking they can control markets: task beyond ability of mortals Aug 02, 2012
Ghost of 2008 Haunts Fed as Companies Take Short View on Risk http://t.co/Wl6KgzdS When policy is not sustainable, businessmen cautious $$ Aug 01, 2012
Ben Bernanke Could Lose for Same Reason as Olympic Sailor http://t.co/aPBZLuwN Strong growth resumes when bad debts are liquidated $$ Aug 01, 2012
Deflation Dismissed by Bond Measure Amid QE3 Anticipation http://t.co/pK0cLw5e Link2 5yr inflation 5yrs forward http://t.co/ZVA74EmF $$ Jul 30, 2012

Energy

Tesoro lifts volumes of Bakken rail project http://t.co/eKzsyOu2 Coastal v. central difference in oil prices incent rail delivery of oil $$ Aug 02, 2012
Buffett Railroad Beats Coal Slump With 75% Gain in Oil http://t.co/VK50miRq From coal to crude oil, frack sand, automobiles, pipes &c $$ Aug 02, 2012
Oil Can?t Go Down http://t.co/CV73DUqW Offers long term arguments that we aren’t finding cheaper-to-produce oil, short-run YMMV $$ Jul 30, 2012

Financials

Where Are the Move-up Home Buyers? http://t.co/MDlos0oL Low end of housing in good shape, will take a while for the high end 2 recover $$ Aug 01, 2012
Libor Punishment Could Be Worse Than the Crime http://t.co/jyRCvVtw There’s a lot to unscramble here, and first do no harm should apply $$ Aug 01, 2012
RE: @bloombergview First do no harm. LIBOR dampens volatility during a crisis vs market-derived measures, which are m? http://t.co/q7cLqTpI Aug 01, 2012
“Really doubt getting closer to zero will make banks lend. Fear >> Greed $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/ajgZ7K60 http://t.co/M2DtNp4p #fedup Jul 30, 2012
Bank Breakups: Not So Fast http://t.co/CB4TYM4o Think most of TBTF came from allowing interstate branching, not investment banking $$ Jul 30, 2012
10 Things Credit Scores Won’t Say http://t.co/3KIeIqH0 More powerful than most people imagine, & less uniform, customized 4 diff uses $$ Jul 30, 2012

Investing

If I use your framework, that gets me to a 2% real return assumption for stocks. Current dividend yield is… http://t.co/ssMBpc2L Aug 03, 2012
Wrong: Verizon, AT&T, Altria Among Top CDS-Adjusted Dividend Stocks http://t.co/fHEfo9jF This is another misuse of CDS spreads $$ Aug 02, 2012
Fair disclosure for last tweet: Long $HPQ common Aug 01, 2012
Wrong: Debt Markets Aren?t Only Worried About HP, but Dell and Others, Too http://t.co/ho8hqt8R CDS mkt spooked, bigger bond mkt calm $$ Aug 01, 2012
RT @KidDynamiteBlog: hearing NYSE is reviewing trades from this AM. Cancelling them would be the worst thing they could possibly do. @r … Aug 01, 2012
“You need to learn more about bonds & CDS before you write about them.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/zcTji7O6 $$ Aug 01, 2012
Seeing a weird inverted market in $PSX w/bid $1 > ask. Weird, why doesn’t it clear. FD: long $PSX for myself & clients Aug 01, 2012
Cult Figures http://t.co/7yDHHbqn Bill Gross explains why future equity returns won’t b as high as the past, unless it is due 2 inflation $$ Aug 01, 2012

International

The Crushing Burden of Old Debt http://t.co/SHXhIYbN True of many places; there are more debt claims than resources to pay them at par $$ Aug 04, 2012
Shock, Ore and Chinese Steel http://t.co/j7HBuIHI When you can no longer cover variable costs, time to shutter high cost capacity $$ Aug 02, 2012
RE: Europe hasn’t tried austerity yet. The debts are still growing as a % of GDP. $$ http://t.co/NbaAxKZN Aug 01, 2012
India’s Power Grid Collapses Again http://t.co/BmQKGyJZ “half of India’s population ? reportedly impacted” $$ Jul 31, 2012
Merkel Allies Harden Opposition to Granting Bank License to ESM http://t.co/cgca4EW4 Right hand taking back what left hand gave $$ Jul 31, 2012

TheStreet.com

How to Fix http://t.co/pm2ctIIK http://t.co/vJlqaUbx ?Good thoughts from @reformedbroker. My long comment: http://t.co/D7ZZ8tSE ?$TST $$ Jul 30, 2012
Thanks for writing this, Josh.? Cramer gave me my start in investment writing; I will be really bummed if $TST doesn’? http://t.co/g9QTXIWG Jul 30, 2012
How to Fix http://t.co/pm2ctIIK | The Reformed Broker http://t.co/DyLiX5AP Excellent advice, but it really may be too late for $TST $$ Jul 30, 2012

Politics

The Bad History Behind ?You Didn?t Build That? http://t.co/Yd8vyYlA Obama was deliberately ambiguous; prime motive was 2 dis entrepreneurs Aug 04, 2012
Obama authorizes secret US support for Syrian rebels http://t.co/s0PJ8Hx1 US allies itself w/Turks & Saudis against Alawite dictatorship $$ Aug 02, 2012
California Says Tax Revenue ?at Risk? From Facebook Drop http://t.co/ZLzQuFHE Normal 4 bad surprises 2 happen 2 those w/liberal acctg $$ Aug 02, 2012
Protesters Break Into Nuclear Complex http://t.co/yhn1WRvV Gotta admire the tenacity of a bunch of aged Catholic old-style liberals $$ Aug 02, 2012
Republicans Buoyed by Freshmen Seek Rewrite of Tax System http://t.co/TE8HeV3s SImplify, flatten, elim deductions/credits 4 corp/indiv $$ Aug 02, 2012
Postal Service to Miss $5.5B Payment to US Treasury http://t.co/zcgaQDWa Raid Employee benefits, or raise stamp, $UPS & $FDX prices? $$ Jul 31, 2012
The Man Who Saved Capitalism http://t.co/6qBtGnXI Milton Friedman did many good things, but saying he saved Capitalism is hagiography $$ Jul 31, 2012
Indirectly, tax $$ would fund principal reductions RT @diana_olick: #Obama gets a big NO on slashing #mortgage debt: http://t.co/N1vHNnDj Jul 31, 2012
Punctuation Nerds Stopped by Obama Slogan, ‘Forward.’ http://t.co/uRjpoBdq An ! would have worked better. What state’s motto is Forward? Jul 31, 2012
Why Capitalism Has an Image Problem http://t.co/xQIwll6s We need to save capitalism from capitalists *&* the enemies of capitalism $$ 😉 Jul 30, 2012
US loves cops and firefighters – but not their pensions http://t.co/ioSglMne The pension cost is 2high, and politicians ignore the cost $$ Jul 29, 2012
@MikeImbery Then explain why we support anti-freedom governments that support our political aims. Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, India, etc. Jul 29, 2012
That last tweet was meant to highlight the dual nature of US foreign policy, & while it is not lily white, it is better than alternatives $$ Jul 29, 2012
Charles Hill: The Empire Strikes Back http://t.co/9oY16P9A The US is an anti-empire providing freedom, so long as its aims endure $$ Jul 29, 2012

Other

I also don’t do #FF often but I ask my followers to follow @japhychron Aug 04, 2012
Just spent a fun 90 minutes discussing economics, banking, etc. w/ @japhychron in beautiful Ellicott City. It was a great time $$ Aug 03, 2012
WSJ home page is causing Firefox to lock up as it absorbs more and more memory until the system dies. Anyone else experiencing that? $$ Aug 03, 2012
This article reinforces the notion that the mainstream media does not understand conservative evangelicals. Chick-Fi? http://t.co/WoANS3bi Aug 03, 2012
Will Publishers Perish? http://t.co/2qveRV4I Arends: As self-publishing gets easier, the book business faces a major shake-out $$ #yup Aug 02, 2012
WSJ Olympic Medal Tracker http://t.co/P4kKLdcb #WSJLondon2012 Interesting graphical depiction of the Olympic Medal Standings $$ Aug 01, 2012
My Education in Home Schooling http://t.co/jXFF2BTT She makes more fuss than most homeschoolers do; it is easy to beat public schools $$ Jul 29, 2012

Comments

RE: @bloombergview Simplify: “Customer account segregation should never be compromised.” Fits in a tweet. $$ http://t.co/e6TnFVbT Aug 02, 2012
@kaylatausche Buffett doesn’t believe in the Sabbath, but likes high-margin focused entrepreneurs w/ethics. Many Christians buy there $$ Aug 01, 2012
@kaylatausche 1 logical buyer for those wanting 2 preserve corporate culture: Buffett. Has 1-2 retail businesses closed on the Sabbath $$ Aug 01, 2012
@izakaminska I though the same when I looked at the moon this evening over Ellicott City, MD. $$ Aug 01, 2012
@izakaminska I hear you, and think similarly. If nothing else, the “terms of Service” will become tighter. Love your work, Izabella. $$ Aug 01, 2012
@izakaminska Okay, it’s not a perfect solution, but it is good enough that 10% of the time, the account has been suspended when I try it $$ Aug 01, 2012
@izakaminska I regularly use the “block & report spam” feature of twitter to get rid of trolls and spammers, shouldn’t that solve it? $$ Aug 01, 2012
@sandbergadvisor Ding, you were the first to get Wisconsin’s motto, “Forward” $$ Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon On medals, original link: http://t.co/h8cEhIHo ultimately coming from story here: http://t.co/8C2vQR3P Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon “The value of the materials in the gold medal is about $644, silver about $330, and bronze about $4.71” http://t.co/6MWND6Mz $$ Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon The silver medal is 92.5% silver, the rest copper. Bronze medal is 97% copper, 2.5% zinc & 0.5% tin. S/b “Copper medal” $$ Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon oops, here’s the metallic composition: http://t.co/SP3zXzs9 The 2012 gold medal is 92.5% silver, 1.34% gold, rest copper. $$ Jul 31, 2012
@felixsalmon At the relative prices, that’s a gold medals table, assuming the medals are the same size and are purely that metal $$ Jul 31, 2012
“The solution is simple. Raise stamp prices, and the fees they charge UPS & Fedex for “going the?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/0zaUbegb $$ Jul 31, 2012
@munilass I’ve reviewed enough crisis books that I can’t read them anymore; I scan 2c what they observe & ignore $$ http://t.co/Zy8nfeZh Jul 31, 2012
@TFMkts I agree; I’ve written about the problems w/levered ETFs. Kass is big enough, he can short bonds directly if he wants. Not hard $$ Jul 30, 2012
I know and agree; I’ve written about it. Suspect he shorts bonds directly RT @tradingpoints: you can’t hold $TBT on that time-frame – wow – Jul 30, 2012
“Small cap Japan: low valuations, low leverage, low expectations.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/LfuLH8WD Jul 30, 2012
RE: @CharlesSizemore I think you gave a good summary.? Here’s my more bearish take: http://t.co/1gW2Js52? http://t.co/LVwWQEJj Jul 30, 2012
I disagree w/Kass here, though he is generally a clever investor. He is also more of a trader than most… http://t.co/BpynxRQR Jul 30, 2012

Redacted Version of the August 2012 FOMC Statement

Posted on 1 August 2012 by David Merkel

Comments

This was a nothing-burger.? Shades down GDP and household spending.? No change in policy, except that the FOMC might act ahead of the next meeting in September.
In my opinion, I don?t think holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt will have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself.
Also, the reinvestment in Agency MBS should have limited impact because so many owners are inverted, or ineligible for financing backed by the GSEs, and implicitly the government, even with the recently announced refinancing changes.
The key variables on Fed Policy are capacity utilization, unemployment, inflation trends, and inflation expectations.? As a result, the FOMC ain?t moving rates up, absent increases in employment, or a US Dollar crisis.? Labor employment is the key metric.
Do they want the yield on 30 year TIPS to go negative?? Only 0.30% of real yield there, and the 20-year real yield in negative.
GDP growth is not improving much if at all, and the unemployment rate improvement comes more from discouraged workers.? Inflation has moderated, but whether it will stay that way is another question.

Questions for Dr. Bernanke:

Is it possible that you don?t really know what would have worked to solve the Great Depression, and you are just committing an entirely new error that will result in a larger problem for us later?
Why do think extending the period of accommodation by a little more than two years will have any significant effect on the economy, aside from stock and bond prices?
Discouraged workers are a large factor in the falling unemployment rate. Why do you think the economy is doing well?
Couldn?t increased unemployment be structural, after all, there is a lot more competition from labor in emerging markets?
Why do you think that holding down longer-term rates on the highest-quality debt will have any impact on lower quality debts, which is where most of the economy finances itself?
Why will reinvestment in Agency MBS help the economy significantly?? Doesn?t that only help solvent borrowers on the low end of housing, who don?t really need the help?
Isn?t stagflation a possibility here?? I mean, no one expected it in the ?70s either.
If the Fed ever does shrink its balance sheet, what effect will it have on the banks?

Forget Your Cost Basis

Posted on 31 July 2012 by David Merkel

All good investment decision-making is forward looking.? Whether you are buying or selling, it doesn’t matter where prices have been in the past.

Now, that said, price and volume charts may occasionally indicate where there is support or resistance.? That might be worthy of consideration in the short-run.? When I was an institutional bond manager, competing against few others, but larger others, that was more important.? Not sure it is so important when competitors are smaller.

My main concern is that investors focus forward.? Use your best data. and estimate future advantage.? Be aware of mean reversion, so don’t let mere changes in price affect your opinion.? Always aim for the best possible future return.

We win and lose constantly in the market.? Don’t let past successes delude you, they may be historical accidents. Instead, focus forward to try to see what opportunities and threats are in front of you.

There were two hard things I had to learn when I was a corporate bond manager: 1) learning to sell lower than my original sell. 2) Learning to buy higher than my original buy.? That meant I had to forget my original cost basis, and try to estimate the best forward value that I could.

That is a tough place to be, but it is rational.? Always look forward, and estimate where you will have the best outcomes going forward.? You will get superior results from doing that.

On Life Insurance and Life Reinsurance

Posted on 30 July 2012 by David Merkel

I get good questions from readers.? Here’s one from this post:

Is there a reason why life reinsurance companies are better positioned then life insurers?

Don?t they face the same problems that they won?t be able to generate as they roll their portfolios into lower yielding bonds going forward (since rates have come down so much)?

Basically just wondering why you think RGA is cheap at 84% of AOCI adjusted book but not the rest of the life insurance industry at 35%-75% of tangible book?

Is it mostly due to your opinion of management?

I started to leave a reply and the normally reliable software glitched, and I lost it. Dejected, I decided to make it a post.

First, life reinsurance is much less competitive than life insurance.? Globally and in the US, the top 5 life reinsurers have ~80% of the market share.? Life insurance is far more fragmented, and has a decent slug of mutual insurers who don’t have an explicit profit motive.? (Note: many of the large mutuals are exceedingly well run, which makes the competition even stiffer.

Second, life reinsurance is mostly mortality exposure-based, versus life insurers which are mostly investment spread based.? The law of large numbers favors the life reinsurers over the insurers.? Low interest rates will not affect reinsurers as much as insurers.? Hint to those who analyze life insurers and reinsurers: look in the statutory statements, which have a lot more data than the GAAP statements for odd reserves that indicate a significant chance of losses if interest rates continue to remain low.

Third, life insurers have weaknesses in reserving practices for variable products with secondary guarantees.? There is no good way to calculate what a proper reserve should be.? The implied options are odd, and have no natural hedges.

That’s why I only own one life insurance company; one that has simple products.? Aside from low interest rates, valuations are low at life insurers because of lack of certainty over reserves.

So, much as I like RGA management, they are not the main reason why I like the company.? RGA executes well, and has an excellent reputation in its industry.

Here’s another question that I received via e-mail:

Prices of financial services stocks are too cheap for me to resist these days. ?I see companies like Citigroup as being just given away by Mr. Market.

?Within insurance, my equity exposure is limited to AIG, which I consider to be well managed, misunderstood, and priced attractively enough to continue holding. ?Over the past month other insurers have started to grab my attention (HIG, MFC, MET, PRU). ?HIG stands out as being the least sensitive to the possibility of a decade of financial repression. ?Do you have any favorites that you would care to share? ?This topic could make for a timely blog posting.

I responded:

Value trap.? Focus on sustainable ROEs that will validate book value.? The accounting of AIG is a quagmire, even after their disposals.

There is a further difficulty with life insurers at present.? The GAAP accounting standards do not fairly reserve for secondary guarantees on insurance and annuity policies; truth, as a life actuary and a financial analyst, the options offered are so complex and long-dated, that I?m not sure there is a way to value them.? Over the last 10-20 years, we knew that this could be an issue, but we are now seeing the issue creep in as stock performance ebbs.

But if you disagree, consider PNX, it has all of the issues, and then some.? Be sure to get the Statutory books of the companies you buy here, because that drives dividend payments to the indebted holding company.

And one more e-mail:

Hi David,?? I have enjoyed reading your blog for many years (even before GGG recommended it)

I have two questions for you about insurance companies in general — I know you are very busy, I am just hoping you can point me to some websites where I can do my own homework.

(1) If I want to check the financials of a number of mutual insurance companies, is there a consolidated source??? Do I need to pull the annual statements of each one and are the different state accounting rules comparable?

(2) As I understand it (and I am quite new to this so I may have this wrong) — mutual insurance companies use “statutory accounting”, which is different from US GAAP.??? Is there a website or library book that explains the differences between these two methods????? Does statutory accounting differ from state to state?

Again, I am sure you are very busy and I will have to do my own research / homework.? You seem to be more knowledgeable than most about insurance accounting, and I am hoping you can point me to some documentation that will help me gain a better understanding.

My response:

1a)? Consolidated source: https://eapps.naic.org/insData/ , but most companies will send it to you if you ask.? Haven?t been turned down yet, aside from Berkshire Hathaway? and I?m working on that.

1b) Generally, you have to pull each one.? Some companies will do a combined set of schedules for their investments.? When I got AIG 3 years ago, there were 60+ books?

1c) There are slight differences by state, but most of the time you can neglect that.

2a) Mutual companies use statutory accounting, but so do stock companies for the state?s analysis of insurance subsidiary solvency.? And, though stock companies use GAAP for reporting to shareholders, many mutual companies will have an internal pseudo-GAAP basis for analyzing long-term profitability, and for management bonuses, yeh.? Statutory accounting is in some ways more critical than GAAP even for stock companies, because that determines how much cash can be distributed to the holding company, which is crucial if the holding company needs to make interest payments, or wants to make dividend payments.? This is one reason why actuaries often price products by calculating marginal distributable earnings.

2b) I have attached what I think is a short primer on GAAP vs Stat accounting.? This is a big topic, and the NAIC sells all manner of resources at high prices with all of the gory details.? This should give you a good start.? I general, the volunteers from the actuarial societies put out some good summary stuff, but you have to hunt for it.

Keep fighting the good fight.? Bloggers are the conscience of Wall Street and DC?

=-=–==-=-=–=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==–=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Life insurance is tough because there is uncertainty on claim payment on timing, and uncertainty of investment earnings.? The latter is usually more serious, because the law of large numbers does not help.? Add in the valuation issues, and now you know why a life actuary primarily invests in P&C insurance companies, life reinsurers, and simple life companies.

Full disclosure: long RGA

Book Review: Visual Guide to Financial Markets

Posted on 28 July 201228 July 2012 by David Merkel

This is a good book and I recommend it to certain people.? Thus when you see the number of stars I give it at Amazon, know that for those whom the book is good, it is really good.? But there are some who will get less out of the book.

The author, David Wilson, is an excellent explainer of markets to those who are just learning.? He frequently does “The Chart of the Day” at Bloomberg, giving considerable insight to neophytes and professionals as he boils down complex topics into one graph.

As I began to read the book, I noted to myself, “Oh, in a number of places, they are using Bloomberg Terminal formats without mentioning it.? At the end of the book, they give a list of Bloomberg Terminal codes that would be useful to those who subscribe to the ~$2,000/month service. (Yeh, it costs that much, and it is worth it if you can afford/use it.)

I say this partly because I was a rare Bloomberg user that had expertise with all of the “yellow keys” of Bloomberg.? I’m intellectually curious, so when I first used a Bloomberg terminal back in late 1992, I played around with it to see what it could deliver.? It could deliver a lot, and it has expanded exponentially since then.? It is one amazing system.

But what if you could cobble together the most important 50% of what you get on a Bloomberg terminal, ad pay nothing?? That’s me.? It takes extra work, but you can do it.? I miss my Bloomberg terminal, because I can’t afford it now, but for those that can afford it, it is a wealth of information.

Thus, back to the book.? The book reads like one who imbibes both Bloomberg’s editorial ideals: “keep it simple. explain, give them the facts,” and teaching beginner users of a Bloomberg terminal on how to think about the markets.? Note that the terminal never gets mentioned until an appendix at the end.? But those that use a Bloomberg terminal to a high degree understand how the market is segmented.? We don’t ask the same questions with municipal bonds as we do with stocks.

This book is a very good book for beginners in the markets.? It explains a lot of things well, with reasonable detail.? It is not a good book for experts — you know all this, but if you want to get an introduction to some tangential areas you might not know, this could still help you.? This book brings you up to an intelligent beginner level in a wide number of areas.

What areas does it cover:

Stocks
Bonds (of many sorts — corporate, government, municipal, mortgage, etc.)
Money markets
Indexes
Commodities
Derivatives (options, swaps, futures, forwards)
Mutual Funds (open-end and ETFs)

The book highlights at the edges of its pages the main ideas, processes for using the information described, and definitions of financial terms.

Quibbles

When the book gives definitions, it is white on a vivid green background, and is hard to read.? The text should have been black against the vivid green.

The book implicitly assumes that people get quotes from a Bloomberg terminal.? Aside from professionals, few people do.? Until Bloomberg markets a retail service for individuals, offering the basics for 5% of the cost, there is little utility from explaining the nuances of a Bloomberg quote.

The title is slightly misleading, because the the book is no more “visual” than most.? There are a decent amount of graphs, but for a book that calls itself visual, I would have expected more.

Who would benefit from this book:?? This book is best for those that have access to a Bloomberg terminal, but are not expert in using it. Second best, it could help those without a Bloomberg terminal, but want to learn the basics of investing.? Dave is a good teacher.? Finally, for those with experience, this book is redundant.? If you want to, you can buy it here: Visual Guide to Financial Markets (Bloomberg Financial).

Full disclosure: The publisher asked if I wanted the book.? I said ?yes? and he sent it to me.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 28 July 2012 by David Merkel

LIBOR

Six ways big banks screwed Grandma http://t.co/ltisCJ2P Poorly argued. It’s as if LIBOR could be manipulated without reaction. $$ Jul 28, 2012
Fidelity Joins BlackRock in Weighing Libor Action Against Banks http://t.co/9DKR48NY This isn’t as easy as it seems; much 2 prove $$ Jul 26, 2012

Eurozone

Draghi Said to Hold Talks With Weidmann on Bond Purchases http://t.co/SunXLadO If the Buba plays ball, the sky is the limit. $$ #inflation Jul 28, 2012
Draghi Says ECB Will Do What?s Needed to Preserve Euro http://t.co/xc4iQ9ji Uncertain that the ECB will buy lots of Italian & Spanish debt Jul 26, 2012
Europe Is Cheap?So Why Can?t I Pull the Trigger? http://t.co/yHGHjmoN Wait until things stop getting worse $$ Jul 25, 2012
Spanish, Italian Notes Rise on Bets for ESM Enhancement http://t.co/3CBLXOmK ?The idea of making the ESM a bank is a game changer,? $$ #no Jul 25, 2012
Spain to struggle to fund 2012 debt crunch http://t.co/iOefCfxz How long until the next last minute rescue? 10-yr yields over 7.5% $$ Jul 25, 2012
Europe Stymies Private Equity as Corporate Buyouts Stall http://t.co/QXNGEnQj If the banks won’t lend, private equity deals don’t fly $$ Jul 24, 2012
Hollande Transaction Tax Drives Investor Quest for Loopholes http://t.co/hDvZnQfL New trans tax drives investors2use contracts4difference Jul 24, 2012
Euro-Zone Government Debts Hit Record http://t.co/o9lXW7f1 Govt debt / GDP 4 whole E-Zone goes from 87.3% @ 12/11 -> 88.2% @ 3/12 $$ Jul 24, 2012
Greece Back at Center of Euro Crisis as Spain Yields Soar http://t.co/GLCWfi9e IMF/Core begins to doubt ability to hold it together $$ Jul 23, 2012
YIKES: Spanish Yields Are Surging To Record Highs http://t.co/qIQhvlUE Time 4 the Germans to buy summer homes in Spain $$ #evercloserunion Jul 23, 2012

US Politics

There. MMF reform that works, fit into a single tweet. $$ 🙂 Jul 27, 2012
Let MMFs keep a stable NAV, pass through losses thru unit reduction if real NAV<.995, reset real NAV @ 1.0025. Runs would strengthen NAV $$ Jul 27, 2012
Why Investors Are Dumping Money Market Funds For Short-Duration ETFs http://t.co/TNEpH9F9 My point: treat MMFs like modified ETFs $$ Jul 27, 2012
Maryland Governor Defends ‘Millionaires’ Tax’, Denies Job Losses http://t.co/yqfVRYCB Can bend rules, since MD is next 2 DC, which slurps $$ Jul 27, 2012
Drilling Strains Rural Roads http://t.co/2tUr6bJY Simple solution: tell energy companies you will not repair roads. They will do it $$ Jul 27, 2012
Treasury Eyes Funds Hidden Overseas http://t.co/g38s8z1c IRS goes after foreign trusts, seems 2ba piddling amount of money 2 go after $$ Jul 27, 2012
Wrong: How2Break NRA?s Grip on Politics: Michael R. Bloomberg http://t.co/I9vm6KKg The Ethanol lobby is a lot weaker than the gun lobby $$ Jul 27, 2012
Estate Tax: Ezra Klein is Wrong! http://t.co/1o5sumfN Never trust anyone whose profession starts w/an “A.” 😉 Accts, Attys, Advisors &c $$ Jul 26, 2012
Making the Rich Poorer Doesn?t Enrich the Middle Class http://t.co/fvsUgDfk The govt exists to grow itself until we die. Sad but true $$ Jul 26, 2012
The gender wage gap is a myth http://t.co/cNpTi1uZ Diana Furchtgott-Roth makes the same case that many economists have since the 70s $$ Jul 26, 2012
New Geithner disclosures further cloud his record http://t.co/heblaDAH Geithner was point man 4the Fed on derivatives. Dropped ball $$ Jul 26, 2012
Justice Scalia Disputes Accuracy Of ‘Leak’ http://t.co/OMVCtlAg Wide-ranging interview of Scalia, whose juridical impact may outlive him $$ Jul 25, 2012
Former Citigroup CEO Weill Says Banks Should Be Broken Up http://t.co/zftFGEQ6 Good, he changed his view, my view changed on that also $$ Jul 25, 2012
10 Everyday Items That Cost Way More Because of US Taxes http://t.co/KjXUu8Im Interesting list, mostly comprised of protectionist taxes $$ Jul 25, 2012
The hidden Mitt Romney http://t.co/rPVcQR7C Romney & Obama have one thing in common: the more you know about them, the less you like them $$ Jul 24, 2012
Romney to Attack Obama on Leaks, Defense Cuts http://t.co/hiCrTCtX ?the greatest force for good the world has ever known? US naivete $$ Jul 24, 2012
Scalia Offers Up 57 Varieties for Interpreting Legal Texts http://t.co/sSdqUE1m His manifesto on originalism/textualism $$ Jul 23, 2012

China

Lies, Damned Lies, and China’s Economic Statistics http://t.co/Fqpn8YMS I have some skepticism to US statistics, how much more China? $$ Jul 27, 2012
Xi Jinping Millionaire Relations Reveal Fortunes of Elite http://t.co/iFz7e6dg Communist Party members have access2loans & IPO allocations Jul 27, 2012
Capital Outflows Chime With China?s Bears http://t.co/GIaMbM8g “any currency exchange >$2,000 needs to have a prior reservation made.? $$ Jul 25, 2012

Companies

Alierta Abandons Dividend Penchant to Save Telefonica http://t.co/AHhbFucX Now more interested in $TEF, good cashflow, div shld resume $$ Jul 26, 2012
Unilever Warns of Worsening Economy http://t.co/wscXplAV Global economy is weak, even for staple goods. $$ Jul 26, 2012
Zynga?s ?Draw Something? Isn?t a Pretty Picture http://t.co/nSrHWTG3 Always be wary of fads that have no balance sheet $$ Jul 26, 2012
Sanofi Dengue Vaccine Is Promising http://t.co/7EFL5ioC Good news. Perhaps Dengue Fever may be conquered for the good of mankind $$ Jul 26, 2012
Industrias Bachoco Announces Second Quarter 2012 Results http://t.co/n0amblWp Tough read, Q looks good, US acq prob paying off FD:+ $IBA $$ Jul 25, 2012
Assurant Reports Second Quarter 2012 Financial Results http://t.co/jdaB09Kh FIring on all cylinders, & shrinking share count FD: + $AIZ $$ Jul 25, 2012
Warren Buffett: Great Investor, Lousy Insurance Salesman? http://t.co/4KfZNNP3 Poor article; Buffett is very intelligent insurance exec $$ Jul 25, 2012
link 4 last tweet: http://t.co/sj75tC5q You could short the 2.6% bonds and go long default protection for an almost risk-free profit. $$ Jul 25, 2012
Someone Is Getting Really Nervous About HP?s Debt http://t.co/Zqj1xEhp If you look at bonds vs CDS, bonds aren’t panicking. FD: + $HPQ $$ Jul 25, 2012
Contra: Campbell Chases Millennials With Lentils Madras Curry http://t.co/MBdpXGsJ @ $3/pouch I don’t c a mkt 4 gourmet instant soup $$ Jul 24, 2012
Google buys Sparrow for ‘new Gmail project’ http://t.co/q0i3TfZv Sell your company 2 $GOOG 4 $$ . Get new tasks while old technology dies Jul 24, 2012
Iraq blacklists Chevron for Kurdish oil deals http://t.co/23opiYYs Not as big as it seems $CVX has no biz in Arab Iraq $$ FD: +CVX Jul 24, 2012

Rest of the World

North Korean Mystery Woman Is Leader Kim Jong Un?s Wife http://t.co/CK8seZPc I find it optimistic that he wants to live a normal life $$ Jul 26, 2012
Global economy?s cure is worse than the disease http://t.co/isJuL3rn Indirectly suggests the best policy would be benign neglect $$ Jul 25, 2012
Cyber Attacks on Activists Traced to FinFisher Spyware of Gamma http://t.co/ZITxw1bu Practice safe computing; scan for rogue processes $$ Jul 25, 2012

Public Radio

Public Radio International acquired by Boston public broadcaster WGBH http://t.co/Mck9Gx0n Interesting when a non-profit corp gets bought $$ Jul 26, 2012
If it is the same, could NPR or the Corporation 4 Public Broadcasting sell out also? Buffett could give them a good home. Or the Kochs 😉 $$ Jul 26, 2012
Grew up in the insurance world, so I’ve seen non-profit (mutuals) buy another mutual or stock company, but is it the same w/WBGH buying PRI? Jul 26, 2012
Renaming 2 Private Radio International 😉 RT @timjeby: Big Public Radio News: WGBH in Boston to acquire Public Radio International #pubmedia Jul 26, 2012

Municipal Bonds

For further reading consider: Some perspective on the recent California bankruptcies by @munilass aka Bond Girl $$ http://t.co/2jwUeNOX Jul 26, 2012
Muni Blues Worry Investors http://t.co/r4VvKP4g Municipalities aiming4 strategic default face challenges in courts; favor bondholders $$ Jul 26, 2012
Some perspective on the recent California bankruptcies http://t.co/RFAgUt5u @munilass on how unusual wud b4 muni bonds 2not pay principal $$ Jul 24, 2012

Federal Reserve

Bernanke the unready http://t.co/6ppUDOMl Fed is impotent, but can’t admit it. Bernanke is wrong on monetary policy near 0%. $$ Jul 26, 2012
Fed strives to replenish depleted toolkit http://t.co/Yhy4pMy2 Doing the same thing, over & over again, but expecting different results $$ Jul 25, 2012
Fed Sees Action if Growth Doesn’t Pick Up Soon http://t.co/2TddWIZz Doing the same thing over&over again&expecting different results $$ Jul 24, 2012
Coming: The End of Fiat Money http://t.co/jHhnlPs0 Nice try. Lot of good stuff 2 read here, but no clincher 4 the return of gold $$ Jul 23, 2012

US Housing

By October of 2005 the prices of residential real estate peaked, which led to most of the leverage unwind that was about to happen. $$ Jul 25, 2012
Office of Financial Research Annual Report http://t.co/w9Xm4i9J Pp 8-9, first difficulty: by 2005 it was too late to stop the crisis $$ Jul 25, 2012
Is This What a Housing Bottom Looks Like? http://t.co/pSwtryX4 Lazy recovery, as people sell when they can avoid losses $$ Jul 27, 2012
Wrong: Reverse mortgages as popular as IRAs in 10 years http://t.co/pp7qoG63 Must have equity & creditworthy rev mtge lenders. Complex 2 $$ Jul 25, 2012
Home Values Post First Year-Over-Year Increase Since 2007 http://t.co/VHFnG83k Prices rising on the low end; higher priced problematic $$ Jul 24, 2012
Subprime Rally Building as Dealers Sop Up Supply http://t.co/s7BVK0v2 Combination of yield lust & rising housing prices drive up bonds $$ Jul 24, 2012

Miscellaneous

Pig Tissue Seen Fixing Injury That Sidelined Lin http://t.co/ys0kWDNb New tech uses pig tissue undoes painful damage from torn meniscus $$ Jul 27, 2012
Can a Food for Cows Make Healthier Snickerdoodles? http://t.co/o8vF4h5e Adding some DDG 2baked goods adds protein & fiber, good yes? $$ Jul 26, 2012
Closing In on a Cure for Vision Loss http://t.co/QCNZohN7 Testing “gene therapy, stem-cell therapy & a modified version of vitamin A” $$ Jul 24, 2012
Will the world’s greatest startup machine ever stall? http://t.co/R1wFzGsM Long interview w/President of Stanford re Silicon Valley ties $$ Jul 24, 2012
Breadbaskets of Last Resort See Once-in-a-Lifetime Prices http://t.co/A0AePuJx Focuses on upper Midwest; great time to have good corn $$ Jul 24, 2012
MIT Researchers’ `Cool’ Idea http://t.co/SMPitSjO Way cool, allowing 4 cheaper, better milk in rural areas where power is spotty. $$ Jul 24, 2012
Contra: The One Capitalism That Dare Not Speak Its Name http://t.co/jaZfeluf State Capitalism more prone 2 bubbles than laissez-faire $$ Jul 24, 2012
America’s Energy Situation In 15 Maps http://t.co/lw0vOwnc Refining, production, prices, intl concerns, natgas, crude, coal, solar, wind $$ Jul 23, 2012
THE DEFINING DECADE: Why You Can’t Afford To Waste Your Twenties http://t.co/8gl9RqGG Early success compounds; so does early failure $$ Jul 23, 2012
Lobbying Works! Big Spenders Reap Big Stock Gains Says Trennert http://t.co/2vsJyEXB But what happens if the US Government has to shrink $$ Jul 23, 2012
Who Really Invented the Internet? http://t.co/LkvW1xwM Many did, & they were standing on the shoulders of giants. $$ #ittakesavillage 😉 Jul 23, 2012

Market Dynamics

Fidelity Targets Securities Lending http://t.co/stEvATII The buyside is beginning to fight back against the trust & investment banks $$ Jul 27, 2012
Study: High-Speed Trading Hurts Long-term Investors http://t.co/ZhMhkiCG This probably affects those w/higher turnover more $$ Jul 27, 2012
Currencies: from Nullifying to Negative http://t.co/lxqwZZKw What is the game? To make money, or avoid losing a lot? Neg int rates a pain $$ Jul 25, 2012
Bond Trading Loses Some Swagger Amid Upheaval http://t.co/l93Vp7xL Except 4 the most liquid corporates, need broker2find liquidity/bonds $$ Jul 25, 2012

Comments

Our Olympic Gold in Wit $$ RT @TheLondonWhale: RT take a bow @ReformedBroker: Switzerland tough to beat in gold vaulting Jul 28, 2012
“Cultural change cannot be achieved by outsiders, in 1 generation, no matter how much $$ gets spent.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/5eBdsBlO Jul 27, 2012
@brettsimonson Think the direction I would have headed was public policy, which involves a finer view of asset/liab mgmt, run avoidance etc Jul 27, 2012
@brettsimonson Hi Brett, no part 2 from what I can see. Very disorganized that week — no power for a week Jul 27, 2012
Ditto, well-deserved $$ RT @ReformedBroker: we love you, simone RT @SimoneFoxman: Yay, 5K! Thanks for following, everyone!! Jul 27, 2012
@munilass Also, if a kid was disconsolate for a while, before 2AM it was mine. After, it was hers. Jul 27, 2012
@munilass When the family was young, my wife & I had a deal. I took midnight feedings, she took the early morning feedings. Jul 27, 2012
@munilass My house works like this: I work late b/c it is quiet. My wife who homeschools the kids gets up early b/c it is quiet. Jul 27, 2012
@munilass I know many classes of bonds and other fixed income instruments. But I only know enough about munis to be dangerous. Thus I ask. Jul 27, 2012
@munilass Decided to review the book “Investing in the High Yield Municipal Market” by Triet Nguyen. If I have Qs, can I ask you? Jul 27, 2012
@e_d_sanders Both parties stand for different shades of nothing. They give rhetoric to their bases, do little, and cling to power. $$ Jul 27, 2012
RT @Convertbond: Sell the US equity rally hard when Spain’s 2s \ 10s curve starts to re-flatten #Government #Bonds 2 year & 10 year … Jul 26, 2012
“”Of course this food is organic. We used Organic Chemistry to create it.”” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/CvYhIQ7p $$ $DF Jul 26, 2012
Happy 2b your 1st subscriber $$ RT @SNLFinancial: Follow SNL Financial reporters so you?re always in the know: http://t.co/Rbwi9Jn3 Jul 26, 2012
“Why we need to dismantle the Democrat & Republican parties: the national budget slaves for local interests” Merkel http://t.co/gllFMcec $$ Jul 26, 2012
A weather forecaster for either WBAL or WTOP said that Maryland gets a derecho once every 5-10 years. Two in one year? Hope not. $$ Jul 26, 2012
Just what we need, another derecho $$ RT @BloombergNews: Severe storms, possible derecho forecast for Northeast US http://t.co/XPGdJQoC Jul 26, 2012
RE: @bloombergview Not worthy to be read $$ http://t.co/TsRQZdTI Jul 26, 2012
RE: Loads of 12% coming out mean that only 88% of the money is going to work for the investor.? Doesn’t matter where ? http://t.co/hJgSPGrT Jul 26, 2012
Commented on The Economist | Monetary policy: Bernanke the unready http://t.co/rsqLZm7A Jul 26, 2012
“Marriage civilizes, & gives us some hope that he will normalize N. Korea. He lived outside NK 4?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/uxDl62iM $$ Jul 26, 2012
RT @ReformedBroker: RT @jamielissette: *MOODY’S CHANGES OUTLOOK ON 17 GERMAN BANKING GROUPS TO NEGATIVE Jul 25, 2012
“For what it is worth, that’s the way Canada does it. Income taxed @ FMV @ death. No estate tax.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/lQx4RjYN $$ Jul 25, 2012
RE: @CSMonitor The book “Hungry Ghosts” documents The Great Leap Forward very well. Worth a read. $$ http://t.co/LQ5dChjQ Jul 25, 2012
“It would be cleaner to tax unrealized capital gains at death, and eliminate the estate tax.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/GqPiMZ5r $$ Jul 25, 2012
“Rating agencies are supposed to be behind the curve. They rate over the full credit cycle?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/z80RTQCv $$ Jul 25, 2012
@e_d_sanders He could have included 1 or 2 more words & it would have been crystal clear. I think the ambiguity was deliberate. I cud bwrong Jul 25, 2012
“Don’t open suspicious attachments. Use procexp to review processes. Disable processes you can’t?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/PUaCZKOf $$ Jul 25, 2012
“When computers screen applicants, a skills shortage emerges. Computers seek current perfection, not?” David_Merkel http://t.co/HVRm6HOP $$ Jul 25, 2012
“A case where so many things went wrong, it is amazing that they almost won. Really, they were?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/hJcw4tCX $$ Jul 25, 2012
@e_d_sanders I’m voting third party; I don’t like the GOP either; it’s obvious that no one man builds infrastructure; not a point 2 make Jul 25, 2012
@e_d_sanders It’s not a misquote. Read the two paragraphs in context; he is downplaying individual initiative. Jul 25, 2012
@havocp I copied the quote from the WH website. Given what O said in the above that, both interpretations are legitimate. Could b clearer. Jul 25, 2012
@havocp and I appreciate your comment. I like those that comment, and even those that disagree with me highly. Jul 25, 2012
@havocp Doesn’t matter to me. Concentrating effort is significant and deserves a reward, not condescension. $$ Jul 25, 2012
RT @pdacosta: Crisis contained, to inhabited areas. RT @SJosephBurns: “The Subprime Crisis will not affect the economy overall.” – Ben B … Jul 25, 2012
RT @ritholtz: WSJ reporting ?Federal Reserve moving closer to action to spur growth” Bond buying, rate guidance, lower reserve rate amon … Jul 24, 2012
RE: @bloombergview You’re still going to need LIBOR, however calculated, for existing contracts. Replacement will be ? http://t.co/smOdgXbd Jul 24, 2012
“Ethics comes before competence. Doesn’t matter how good you are, if you are unethical. The?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/6bgcT6nT $$ Jul 23, 2012
RT @AmityShlaes: “The post office ought to be self supporting. At present business men are deluged with useless mail.” — Calvin Coolidg … Jul 22, 2012
@niubi No, b/c many babies do not sleep through the night @ 3 months Jul 21, 2012
If I could ship the rain in Maryland 2 the Midwest, I would. But Maryland farmers r having a good year. Corn looks normal & prices r high $$ Jul 21, 2012

On Bond Investing

Posted on 26 July 2012 by David Merkel

When it comes to bonds I have four main ideas.

Those are my strategies and simple enough.? But what do I do when they are disagreeing with each other?? I play for time.? I play my best ideas, and wait for the market to make a big move that I can ride.

I have owned long duration Treasury bonds for the past year, but have not owned them only, but other ideas as well.? Being long credit has worked, whether in:

Floating rate loans,
Long duration corporates, or
Bank preferred stocks

That does not mean I did not have my failures.? I lost a decent amount of money expecting that the Swiss National Bank [SNB] would eventually break its peg versus the euro.? I still have a small bet on that, and still expect that I will make money on the trade, as the position of the SNB is becoming more difficult by the day.

My goal as a fixed income investor is to make money.? Unlike most fixed income investors, my goal is to make a lot of money when it is favorable to do so, and tread water the rest of the time.? I?m treading water now.? Rates are low; yields are low ? there aren?t that many distortions to take advantage of.

I await an environment with more opportunities.? I wonder if this is how Seth Klarman feels toward the end of a bull market.? I?m just schnitzeling, and waiting for some real opportunities to show up.

As it is, I use two proxies to guide me: AGG and CSJ.? My performance over the last year was between the two.? In the short run, I look to exceed CSJ.? In the long run, I look to exceed AGG.

Full disclosure: long CSJ

Concentrated Interest

Posted on 24 July 2012 by David Merkel

I used to think that Barack Obama was one of the more intelligent Presidents of the United States, but I no longer do.? Consider his recent statements, which show his socialistic attitude:

???? There are a lot of wealthy, successful Americans who agree with me — because they want to give something back.? They know they didn?t — look, if you?ve been successful, you didn?t get there on your own.? You didn?t get there on your own.? I?m always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart.? There are a lot of smart people out there.? It must be because I worked harder than everybody else.? Let me tell you something — there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there.? (Applause.)

???? If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help.? There was a great teacher somewhere in your life.? Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive.? Somebody invested in roads and bridges.? If you?ve got a business — you didn?t build that.? Somebody else made that happen.? The Internet didn?t get invented on its own.? Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.

No man is an island.? We know that.? But in any big enterprise, there is the difficulty of organizing the efforts of all to create something that will satisfy the needs/desires of many.? It is true in business; it is true in war; it is even true in politics, more’s the pity.

Those that structure and plan, who create work so that others can do relatively simple tasks and be paid are valuable people; they have unique skills, and deserve to earn a lot if their efforts result in a lot of satisfied customers.

Our public schools do not train people to be entrepreneurs; they train people to be clerks and technicians.? That said, one advantage the US has over other nations is that we are willing to be flexible, and let failures figure out how they will survive.? Not knowing how you will pay the bills is a great incentive toward initiative.

Back to the main topic.? If you have built a successful business, you have done an amazing thing that most people could not do.? You took the efforts of many men and concentrated them toward a specific task of satisfying the needs of customers.? That is tough stuff, and few can do that well.

Bureaucrats can’t create a business.? Okay, maybe they can create failures like Fannie and Freddie.? They might be able to create a technology by accident, but not know what it could be used for.? Though Arpanet was the precursor to the Internet, it could not create the wide diversity of services created in the private sphere.? It’s like talking about the things the Chinese invented ahead of the West, but they never exploited those inventions.? The private sector did far more to make the Internet useful than the US Government did.

Having a concentrated interest for profit is what sharpens businesses, and makes them more responsive to the needs of people.? This is preferable to having a big government dictate what businesses and individuals ought to do, because the government by its nature is either “one size fits all” (good, sort of) or cronyist, playing favorites (bad).

Everyone has people who helped them and trained them in this life.? That doesn’t mean the government can take credit and demand full allegiance and high taxes.? Most of the time, productive people had good parents, and as one of my mentors said to me, “Children who are not taught by their parents do not get taught.”? He put five children through the public schools, all of them bright.

It takes thought and effort to create a big organization and prosper.? Don’t let naysayers deceive you.? If you built a successful business, you did something significant.? You built it.? Yes, the common resources of society support many of us, but using the common resources and the efforts of those who are only capable of doing a job is significant, and worthy of praise, not condescension from a man who has never built anything significant in his life, and presently destroys opportunities through bad policy.

June 2012	August 2012	Comments
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately this year.	Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year.	Shades the GDP view down.
However, growth in employment has slowed in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.	Growth in employment has been slow in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.	No real change.
Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed.	Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some further signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed.	Shades down household spending.
Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.	Inflation has declined since earlier this year, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.	No change in ?their view of inflation. TIPS are showing flat inflation expectations since the last meeting. (5y forward 5y inflation implied from TIPS.)
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.	Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.	No change. Why bother saying this?
The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.	The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.	No change.
Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.	Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.	No change.
The Committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.	The Committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.	No change.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy.	To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy.	No change.
In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.	In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.	No change.
The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less. This continuation of the maturity extension program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.	The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June,	No real change, drops the expanded explanation ? this is small potatoes.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.	and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.	No real change.
The Committee is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.	The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.	Raises the possibility that they could act before the next meeting in September.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen.	Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen.	No change
Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed continuation of the maturity extension program.	Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant an exceptionally low level of the federal funds rate.	Confirms that Lacker doesn?t like promising Fed Funds will remain low until 2014.