Category: Personal Finance

Book Review: Abnormal Returns

Book Review: Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

I consider Tadas Viskanta to be a friend of mine.? I write my eclectic blog, and Tadas occasionally features me on his daily curation of the economics/finance/investment blogosphere.

But it is not friendship that leads me to write the following: this is a really good book.? Why?? Every day, Tadas curates the best thoughts in finance.? He finds them, he motivates them, and links to them.? If I had just one site to visit everyday, it would be his, not mine.? He’s really good at finding the best content in finance.

But it goes a step further than that.? Tadas is a very good blogger in his own right.? It’s not that he comes up with new insights, but he is very good at taking the insights of others and weaves them into a greater insight than the separate thoughts of the individuals.? He finds themes, and he finds disagreements.? Each provides good food for thought.

Now, if Tadas can do this on a daily basis, let’s call him the Chief Synthesizer of the economics/finance/investment blogosphere — then, what happens if he decides to take several steps back, and synthesize the grand themes he has seen in six years of writing his blog.

It’s been a violent period, after all.? Tadas has been blogging from the peak of residential real estate (October 2005), through the tail of the boom (October 2007), to the bust (March 2009), to the present.? He keeps it relevant, and he doesn’t take sides, which allows him to source the best content better.

So as he synthesizes the themes of the last six or seven years, he comes down to really basic ideas for each chapter: Risk, Return, Stocks, Bonds, Portfolio Management, Does Active Investing Work, ETFs, Global Investing, Alternative Assets, Behavioral Finance, Using Media, and the Lost Decade.? He handles them deftly, highlighting differences, but giving a consensus opinion.

The book is modest, in that it does not promise you greater profits if you follow his advice.? It is a realistic book, because most of us know that the basic principles of investing are straightforward, but they get clouded by academics and hucksters.? After you read this book, you may or may not earn more, but you will probably be safer.

Also, the book is an easy read; I glided through it in less than three hours.

Quibbles

The editor could have done more work to make the index complete; I was surprised to find myself mentioned in the book more times than the index noted.

Who would benefit from this book: Most amateur investors would benefit from the book, and many, though not all professionals would benefit from the book’s basic approach. Think of it this way — what if you could explain basic concepts to the uninstructed more clearly? Wouldn’t it help you in your business?? If you want to, you can buy the book here: Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere.

Full disclosure: I asked the publisher for the book and he sent it to me.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

Simple Retirement Calculator

Simple Retirement Calculator

Sorry that I have not been posting much of late.? April is always rough for me.? Taxes play some role in April, because I get a certain amount of my tax data late, but the main reason stems from some charitable boards on which I serve, which meet in/near April.

One of the questions that came to me was how we could educate some of the workers to put away more of their income for retirement, because we don’t have a Defined Benefit plan.? After a little discussion, I said that I could give them good friendly advice.? As most committees go, when someone volunteers to solve a problem, discussion ends.

Now, what I have done is pretty simple, and violates one of my rules — I don’t believe in constant compound interest.? Markets don’t work that way, but for some perverse simplifying reason, retirement planning models do.

What I have done is create a model for retirement income, attempting to express it in terms that someone non-knowledgeable could understand.? You can download the Simple Retirement Calculator (free to download) that I created.

My base case assumes 3% inflation, pay keeps pace with inflation, and the real return on investing is 2% over inflation.? Other assumptions: one works for 45 years from age 25 to 70, and that the options for payout are limited to those that respect spouses and heirs.

So what can one 25 years old expect from saving over a 45 year period of time?

Savings Rate
Salary Replacement 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
J&S 100% Cash Refund 22.9% 27.5% 32.0% 36.6% 41.2% 45.8% 50.4% 54.9% 59.5% 64.1% 68.7%
J&S 100% CR Indexed 15.1% 18.1% 21.1% 24.1% 27.1% 30.1% 33.1% 36.1% 39.1% 42.1% 45.2%
4% year 14.6% 17.6% 20.5% 23.4% 26.4% 29.3% 32.2% 35.2% 38.1% 41.0% 43.9%
Accum Years Ending Pay ?? 3.66 ?? 4.39 ?? 5.13 ?? 5.86 ?? 6.59 ?? 7.32 ???? 8.06 ???? 8.79 ???? 9.52 ?? 10.25 ?? 10.99

This table expresses what is needed in order to have effective income during retirement.? The average investor can’t control asset returns.

J&S 100% Cash Refund -> Spouse gets 100% after death of annuitant, heirs get a payment annuitants got less than the lump sum value at retirement.? Indexed benefits increase at the rate of the CPI.

With a 2%% real return, it takes a lot of saving to replace current income in retirement, even over 45 years. Note that the real return assumption has the largest impact on the results.

Much as I think DB plans are superior to DC plans for the average person, most companies in the present environment will not subsidize a DB plan to the degree that will allow a person to retire at the same level of purchasing power that they had while employed.

There are many ways that I could improve the results of this model, but the improvements would only be incremental.? The main point of this model indicates that most people do not save enough, if all of their retirement outcomes rely on a defined contributions plan.

Let me know what you think? in the comments below.? Thanks.

Book Review: The Facebook IPO Primer

Book Review: The Facebook IPO Primer

There is more money to be lost than made in most controversial IPOs, on average. Don’t get me wrong, this is a good book, and the author knows what she is talking about, but whether one should buy Facebook in its IPO next month is a huge open question, and I would encourage you to read this book to think through the problem.

If you read the book, you will get a healthy dose of skepticism, mixed with the idea that many large IPOs in tech have been successful, like Google.? The main idea is that you have to do due diligence.? All snowflakes have six corners, but they are all different.

The book gives you five different ways to value Facebook, and those methods are all over the map, as they should be for a company where the economics are yet to be determined.? At least it is profitable.

The range of valuation gives everyone something to hang onto, but the thought process should force everyone to think about how Facebook will monetize all of their users.? Will the users behave in a way that allows Facebook to make money off them?? So far, yes, but the future is far more volatile than I can imagine.

In general, I would advise readers to avoid IPOs.? Most people lose money in buying them on the secondary markets.? Better you should buy stock in less flashy businesses like utilities, insurance, and energy stocks.? You will make more money there — businesses with a high earnings yield tend to do better than other stocks, and Facebook does not make it there, for now.? Buying Facebook implies a company that will grow far more rapidly than most, and far a long time, which is not common.

If you are thinking about buying shares of Facebook, spend five bucks or so, and get this book.? It’s less than a brokerage commission, and worth more than most in educating you about the value of Facebook.

Quibbles

None; this is a good book.? What matters most is how you think about it.

Who would benefit from this book: If you want to buy the Facebook IPO, buy this book and learn something.? Be aware before you buy, or be dissuaded before you do nothing.? If you want to, you can buy the book here: The Facebook IPO Primer.

Full disclosure: The publisher asked if I wanted to read the book electronically.? I said ?yes? and I downloaded it and read it.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Busy week last week.? Here’s the economic and other news:

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China

 

  • Bloomberg: Inflated Notions http://t.co/hvMoIFH6 Patrick Chovanec questions whether Chinese economic statistics are correct. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • China?s Political Stability Questioned, while Deposit Withdrawals Accelerate http://t.co/X9kJ9oZb Deposits exit China’s banks; many worry $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Asia dominates new treasury purchases http://t.co/BXvgGQRi If you want to favor your exporters, you have to suck in the debts of the buyers Apr 22, 2012
  • China?s Achilles heel http://t.co/3TPxHEvL Very difficult to change the practice of having fewer children once it is entrenched $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Son is a good man, more worthy than Dad $$ RT @mprobertson: & the first wife had a son. http://t.co/dFzgm1kp extra extra, read all about it Apr 19, 2012
  • Chinese Move to Wealth Products May Undermine Bank Stability http://t.co/bYK4qImP Disintermediation happening increasing shadow bank risk $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Chinese Officialdom Indulges in the Almost-Free Lunch http://t.co/tTMkP8JK A modest subsidy/perk looks big if the 1 looking in is poor $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • The Power Shift in China http://t.co/bgxN7t8h Shifts: 1.weak leaders < strong factions 2. government < interest groups 3. party < country $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • More Chinese get US green card http://t.co/ZU30ahwF They know where they’ve got it good, not in the Socialist worker’s paradise! $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • So many Chinese officials r arrested 4 embezzling funds through Macau that 2 scholars devoted a study to the subject http://t.co/YZbDqX57 $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • That?s Governor Zhou to you http://t.co/AkXcHbPZ Check out chart of central bank balance sheet growth http://t.co/VG0bySGA China leads $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • China widens the range 4 currency fluctuations. Is it really making x-rate more flexible? http://t.co/Rv79vI0q PBOC still targets x-rate $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Rotting From Within http://t.co/vAwKBTzb Investigates the massive corruption of the Chinese military; makes corruption in the US look small Apr 18, 2012
  • Bo Xilai’s first wife gets her revenge at last http://t.co/UsrGejSF Some Chinese r very good @ maintaining a grudge 4a long time $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • China Doubling Yuan Band Signals Drive for Convertibility http://t.co/FK9OohMh Importance overstated; will not have a big effect on x-rate Apr 18, 2012
  • China Adds Treasuries for Second Month on Reserve Growth http://t.co/Ev9Fqi8s Export earnings have 2b invested somewhere $$ is best of bad Apr 18, 2012
  • China New Yuan Loans Surge in March as Money Supply Quickens http://t.co/DmXg6QB5 Sounds inflationary, if not 4 goods, then 4 assets $$ Apr 18, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Peak oil goes mainstream (again) http://t.co/BijPuVFG Oil & Gas will never run out, but the price to get them could get high $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Feeling peaky http://t.co/4mefPCBR “But there is a simpler explanation: that supply is inadequate to keep up with rising demand.” $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Could US natural gas run out of storage capacity? http://t.co/8R1aYxjM Yes, it could, and we could see the price of spot gas go 2 zero $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Delta?s Oil Refinery Plan Flies Against Economic Sense http://t.co/0xAnIV2z It rarely makes sense to be vertically integrated. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Obama’s oil market plan more politics than substance http://t.co/w2vwKhNx Crude oil market is so big; would be difficult 2 game secretly Apr 18, 2012

 

Eurozone

 

  • Odds of bankruptcy http://t.co/v0xBexrW Short table of bankruptcy odds: European banks = E-Zone Fringe > US Banks > Other nations $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • The bank-sovereign linkage in the Eurozone http://t.co/9q7Sx9cn Not 2 surprising; governments & banks comprise most systemic risk $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Spain’s loan delinquencies accelerate http://t.co/3Nlf2QDu Really ugly graph: http://t.co/iJVux7fj The Spain issue is not dead $$ #ezonedead Apr 22, 2012
  • Paulson Said to Short Europe Bonds Amid Spain Concern http://t.co/hJQwSc9n This one isn’t as easy as shorting subprime. Be careful $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Modell Deutschland ?ber alles http://t.co/DtrBNHDL Suggests EZone imitate German labor rules, but not austerity $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • French Campaign Enters Final Week With Hollande Extending Lead http://t.co/whQhmUb1 & widening recently; could make Ezone matters messy $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Downgrades Loom 4 Banks http://t.co/EdDRDGQa Moody’s Weighing Ratings Cuts to 114 Institutions in 16 European Countries $$ #lookoutbelow Apr 18, 2012
  • Spanish Minister Asks ECB to Buy Bonds as Crisis Deepens http://t.co/cUcLRHLW Things r calmer now but this is the path of least resistance Apr 18, 2012
  • Spain?s Surging Bad Loans Cast New Doubts on Bank Cleanup http://t.co/QQT2BSsB NPLs /totallending jumped to 8.16% in February, <1% in 2007 Apr 18, 2012
  • Weidmann says not ECB job to tackle Spain’s problems http://t.co/kRUWSfyQ Famous last words $$ ECB only entity w/flexbility 2act fast Apr 18, 2012
  • Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Says Spain Is Worse Off Than It Was Before The LTRO http://t.co/nVMDpG5c It’s a solvency, not a liquidity problem Apr 18, 2012
  • GEORGE SOROS: The Euro Crisis Just Entered A ‘Less Volatile But More Lethal Phase’ http://t.co/uzIev7nm LTRO papers overinsolvency probs Apr 18, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Argentina’s shadow FX rate shows total loss of confidence http://t.co/RVRicp1p Dishonesty in one area makes others distrust u elsewhere $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Cristina: she is not alone http://t.co/gBWcllwU Many nations engage in expropriation from foreigners. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Pakistan And India To Go To War Over Water? http://t.co/2mx9a7u9 Whiskey’s for drinking, water’s for fighting over — Mark Twain $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Unlikely but never say never RT @SCMITHA: @AlephBlog Sir No chance of war bet India & Pakistan both Nuclear Army Chief Kayani wants peace Apr 18, 2012
  • Mexico Manifesting its Own Destiny http://t.co/kLwx5A6l “Mexico has clearly stood out to me for its relative and absolute strength.” $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Japan?s Teachers Fund to Start Investing in REITs, Hedge Funds http://t.co/9nKnY0zM Trend following; late to the alternative assets party Apr 18, 2012


US Tax Policy & Pensions

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  • Congress Eyes 401(k)s Again http://t.co/nRL9IkeO Interesting article on some possible/unlikely proposals to change 401(k)s $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • How to Pay No Taxes: 10 Strategies Used by the Rich http://t.co/ljjgefpc The main problem is defining income, not tax rates on the rich $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Occupy defined-benefit pension funds! http://t.co/eQooNetC Employees would be better off with DB plans, even if had to fund them themselves Apr 22, 2012
  • New Suits Over Do-It-Yourself IRAs http://t.co/B6UYpG5m They aim for the wrong target; the custodian is only a conduit, not a referee $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • As population ages, institutions reduce equity holdings http://t.co/rPfescwH A first: US pensions have allocated more to bonds than equities Apr 18, 2012

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Miscellaneous

 

  • The New York Times Company in 2015 http://t.co/qp451VDA An optimistic view of $NYT three years from now. I will not buy it. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Joel Kotkin: The Great California Exodus http://t.co/WOvr2BFE Y California is in deep trouble & will shrink as better places r found $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Contra: Climate Change Has Nothing to Do With Al Gore http://t.co/GO0S60J3 Misinterprets Lk 16:2, & I am to believe he is a Christian? $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • The Celestial Event That Sparked a Revolution http://t.co/Kn3E9XJb Fascinating tale on the transit of Venus across the Sun $$ #June6th Apr 22, 2012
  • The Downside of Cohabiting Before Marriage http://t.co/a1fFySzW For a man & woman 2 live together long run requires decisive commitment $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Amazon’s knock-off problem (35 Shades of Grey, anyone?) http://t.co/oRJNKhVB Fascinating that some r knocking off books & selling on $AMZN Apr 18, 2012
  • Median age for first marriage spikes to record, holding back family formation http://t.co/Uf2SbCTI Long-run effect on society won’t b good Apr 18, 2012
  • To Pay Off Loans, Grads Put Off Marriage, Children http://t.co/G72NieZI Far better to skip college than put off marrying & children $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • The 101 Finance People You Have To Follow On Twitter: http://t.co/pIaCWK1n A good list, but where’s @moorehn, @interfluidity, @edwardnh $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Dark Meat Getting a Leg Up on Boring Boneless Breast http://t.co/7BDSaTru “Every single day we have shortage of dark meat.” Who knew? $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • ?Pink Slime? Furor Means Disaster for U.S. Meat Innovator http://t.co/uGwKSIhw The other side of the story; fighting bacteria in beef $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • RAIL TRAFFIC CONTINUES TO SOFTEN http://t.co/EnhWT7Ay Economy slowing; just another straw blowing in the wind. $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Freeport Deal Talk Intensifies on Cheap Copper http://t.co/DH26Nf1s Would be a big deal & difficult to pull off; Interesting idea tho $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Taxes are filed and now I have some time to tweet, making up for lost time… Apr 18, 2012
  • @danprimack Private Investment Limited Partnership. Features: asset & profit-based fees. Limited liquidity & information. Aims high gets low Apr 17, 2012?(DM: defining ?hedge fund? in 140 chars)

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Economics & Finance Theory

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  • Is modern portfolio theory bunk? http://t.co/NrplQvbp Low volatility anomaly says bunk; if you didn’t know MPT was bogus alre ady-> #hopeless Apr 22, 2012
  • U.S. money supply growth offers bullish signal http://t.co/aqV6oP0c It is bullish in nominal terms for risk assets; not bullish for the rest Apr 22, 2012
  • Slump Taught Profligate Americans Value of Saving http://t.co/22jWf3OL Having slack assets & not being in debt is a virtue not a vice $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • The Great Depression as a Credit Boom Gone Wrong http://t.co/OBXRGeY2 Until the great depression is viewed as the bust after a credit boom + Apr 22, 2012
  • …we won’t get policy right. The credit cycle is real, & the Fed ignores it, providing liquidity as if it were not a structural problem. $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • El-Erian Breaches The Final Frontier: What Happens If Central Banks Fail? http://t.co/pRcdN42N Goal: print enough credit until promises -> 0 Apr 18, 2012
  • Deflation Does Not Lead to a Depression, suggests Research http://t.co/2VTu2bAd Separate probs; falling inflation vs systemic impaired debts Apr 18, 2012
  • Depression is a choice http://t.co/F4YdBn8x Every creditor wants 2b paid off @ par; many debtors would like compromise, enabling econ growth Apr 18, 2012
  • Difficulties in forecasting the impact of shadow inventory on the housing market http://t.co/xcALioOb Mtge > value makes sales slow, $$ low Apr 18, 2012

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Financial Markets

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  • Are fixed income ETFs the new “securitization” product? http://t.co/6qo2U7Zg Shows the many ways that sponsors make $$ off of ETFs Apr 22, 2012
  • Time for the SEC to institute new disclosure rules on CEO leverage http://t.co/nMJZslXg Insider CEO deals r material & should be revealed $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • Fear Barometer Bubbling http://t.co/HjXre23p Puts getting more expensive relative to calls on the S&P Apr 22, 2012
  • Is This the Book that Inspired Jamie Dimon’s Warnings About Regulation? http://t.co/ikzuXwlD Regs make banks behave alike ->systemic risk $$ Apr 22, 2012
  • @historysquared One question I always ask is how mgmt/directors treat outside passive minority shareholders. Do we ride the back of bus? $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • @historysquared Yeh, don’t let management control audit, nominating, or compensation committees. Split Chairman & CEO, etc., etc., etc… $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Regulators should encourage more diversity in the financial system http://t.co/xhfvsTlS Consistent regs create less diversity forces conform Apr 18, 2012
  • In New Funds, Old Flaws http://t.co/h931mglc Some have high fees, longer-term tracking error, hidden counterparty risk, enable stupidity Apr 18, 2012
  • Why Investors Should Pay Attention to the JOBS Act of 2012 http://t.co/kk9seYVH Here’s what Hunter thinks are the positives of the JOBS Act Apr 18, 2012
  • Fannie Mae Fix Said to Retain Some US Mortgage Role http://t.co/YPAFyygs Crazy people @ UST. 2much debt on housing in general->instability Apr 18, 2012
  • Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Label More Junior Liens as Bad Assets http://t.co/QpwE2S43 Wow, this took a long time to finally happen $$ #reality Apr 18, 2012
  • Structured-Note Fees (etc) http://t.co/rYf5WXBS IBs must disclose likely value of securities, fees incurred in creation of the notes $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Citadel, Millennium Above $115 Billion With Rule Change http://t.co/j53AMUGG Many hedge funds have borrowed lots; now we know how much $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Year’s first outflows from HY bond funds http://t.co/mUmIq0Yw May eventually lead to $$ weakness Apr 18, 2012
  • Green Light for Hedge-Fund Ads Means Caution on Main Street http://t.co/4mh9LNgW Most people will not fare well w/complex investments $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Doing the Right Thing: Upside? Zero. Downside? Financial Ruin? http://t.co/eZlNDJJA We aren’t paid 2b sheriffs a la: http://t.co/egqIsb9V $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Do Jubilee shares make any sense? http://t.co/2LxtggJ1 I don’t think so. Unnecessary complexity; increased illiquidity; would not work $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • 12 Intriguing Insights on Mutual Funds http://t.co/6U3JZegh Interesting mutual fund trivia from Morningstar $$ Apr 18, 2012
  • Interesting post. But a successful spec on 1 risk can morph into credit risk post-crisis. … http://t.co/Vzlb5xdT Apr 17, 2012
  • Falcone looks like a one-trick pony who made one lucky bet and won. Now he loses regularly. http://t.co/dsivgMCs Apr 16, 2012

 

Misunderstanding the Tax Debate (II)

Misunderstanding the Tax Debate (II)

I’m going to do something different to start this post.? I’m going to highlight those that disagreed with the last post.? Thanks for disagreeing, because it makes this post better.

Response 1:

It?s all well meaning but it?s likely to fail in practice, with unintended consequences and nasty corner cases where you have to reintroduce complexity.

For example imagine a taxpayer with one, liquid but volatile asset, which is essentially long term flat. It goes up +X in one year, -X the next, etc. So the taxpayer has essentially zero income (amortised) but must pay on the +X on the positive years. The no deferral rule prevents creating an offsetting tax credit on -X years, so he?s either paying tax on non-existing income, no good (>100% tax rate), or requires a refund on the down years, which creates a new class of enforcement problems that didn?t exist before (people creating fake losses to get actual cash, when they could only get tax credits before).

Another example is a taxpayer with a single illiquid asset, say a small business owner who owns nothing else, and the business is with tight cash flow, or a disabled/elderly person who owns their house outright but nothing else and who lives on welfare. If the business/house valuation goes up, these guys have a tax bill. So now they must raise money out of an illiquid asset just to pay tax, and as it?s illiquid and they don?t have cash flow they might have to either pay distressed credit rates on their tax borrowing, or just sell the business/house which is a bit of a harsh punishment for a tax-cashflow issue.

Income is intrinsically a tricky problem. You can clean up the crud from time to time, indeed you must as some nonsensical rules will inevitably accumulate, but a simple tax idyll is unfortunately not realistic I believe.

Response 2:

I respectfully don?t think so. The example of the taxpayer with the volatile asset could also be compared with a person who pays income taxes on a salary. If they lose their job next year (volatility) they would have paid too much this year by your model. The issue is that it seems less fair to tax work (salaries) at a higher rate than wealth (dividend income). Perhaps it could be separated from capital gains ? which isn?t real income until it is sold at a profit. It could also be argued that salaried people contribute more to the economy than dividend income does. I?m not a job creator if I go sell a $100K of stock on the NY Stock Exchange ? what have I added to the economy?

Response 3:

This does not strike me as a good idea. It isn?t practical to tax appreciation of illiquid untraded assets, and the overhead and intrusion involved in doing something like this fairly would be tremendous.

I don?t see why we should be so reliant on taxing income anyway. Pigovian taxes would be better for the economy, and consumption taxes would be easier to levy. Even a Henry George style single-tax would seem preferable to trying to impute income to people as a result of asset fluctuations.

I like my readers.? Why do I like my readers? One, they are bright people, even if I might disagree with them.? Second, they are relatively polite.? I was walking through Times Square with another prominent blogger, and he said to me, “When I see the comments at your blog, David, you have nice commenters, whereas those at my blog are not.”? I said to him that there were three factors in play:

  • He has more readers than I do.
  • His format did not allow for filtering.? I filter, but rarely.??? Also, it’s harder to comment on my site, and that’s a feature, not a bug, because I want people who are determined to comment, not something that is off the top of the head.
  • I pointed out to him that his rhetoric had bomb-thrower tendencies, and what kind of crowd would that attract?

So, I like my readers, and commenters.? In general, if you comment here, and I don’t delete it, I respect you.? (Deletion rate is less than 0.1%.)

But now to my main point.? Much as I like Buffett, I disagree with him on tax policy, because he is a hypocrite.? Let him argue that stock holdings should be taxed annually on the unrealized increase, and I would agree with him.? He doesn’t pay as much taxes as he should because:

  • Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t pay a dividend.
  • He never sells shares of his company.
  • He engages inside his company to avoid taxes in every legal way.? He is not interested in paying taxes in the slightest.

My tax proposals would make Buffett and those like him pay, and others who game the system as well.? The critiques above miss the point in a major sense.? Much avoidance of taxation comes from having companies that are heavily indebted.? I don’t believe that having heavily indebted companies is a good thing.? If they faced taxation on the presumed increase in their value annually they would be forced to have more liquidity, and that is a good thing.

My proposal would lead to companies not being so heavily indebted.? That’s a feature, not a bug.? We need to discourage debt in the financial sector, because it tends to create booms and busts.? If you want to do a big capital investment, save for it, or borrow on a very short term basis.

My proposal on taxation should be phased in gradually.? Mr Buffett should not be presented with a bill for $12 billion, but rather a request for $1.2? billion for 10 years, reflecting the value he has obtained untaxed.? With respect to taxation, he is the ultimate hypocrite.? If he did not speak on such matters, I would respect him, because he is generally such a wise man, but he has prostituted his position to the current political scene.? Thus I don’t respect him here.

(As an aside, we could drop the estate tax after instituting this, because appreciation would be taxed annually.? As such, the cost basis at death would be very near market.? One thing that was little noted in the one year elimination of estate taxes in 2010 was that if you inherited something in that year, your tax basis did not step up to market, but remained at the cost basis of the decedent.? The taxes may be delayed, but they weren’t eliminated.? That’s still quite an advantage.)

I believe that a less levered system is better for the economy as a whole.? It is far better to disallow interest as a deduction for corporations. and allow corporations to dividend to shareholders without taxation.? Or, eliminate corporate taxation, and tax dividend receivers directly, combined with a tax that taxed profitable companies that did not pay dividends.

The economy is better off when it is less levered.? Debt obligations make the economy less flexible, demanding fixed payments, regardless of how likely they are.? For modeling, it is best to think of the unlevered economy. What is the native demand, leaving aside the? speculative demand?? Borrowing to create speculative demand should not be encouraged by the tax code.? After a phase-in, interest should not be tax-deductible, but would add to the cost basis of assets.

My views are relatively simple:

  • Taxes should be moderate, and levied on the approximate increase in value annually.
  • Corporations and individuals should avoid borrowing to finance investment/consumption, at least, it should not be tax-favored to borrow in the short run.
  • Everyone should be taxed; there is no way to avoid it.? This ensures fairness.
  • All classes of income should be taxed at the same flat rate.
  • There are no non-income deductions/credits, and no use of the tax code for social engineering.
  • This should be phased in over ten years to avoid a shock.
  • For illiquid situations, businessmen would have to plan in advance for taxation, which would impose a cost on illiquidity in the economy.
  • We would not favor savings over consumption — goodbye to the complexities of IRAs, life insurance, pensions, and all other deferral vehicles.

The overarching idea is to create a flat taxation system, where the increase in value is taxed annually, and where there is little incentive to engage in any sort of action to convert one sort of income into another.? This would level out many of the advantages that the wealthy have, while leaving in place a relatively transparent taxation system with few preferences which would be stable, and create predictability in taxation.

Those are my views.? I am trying to create something more stable, fair, and transparent (can’t hide income).? Those are desirable goals.? Why shouldn’t everyone love this, aside from the rich that use the overly generous tax code?? Feel free to comment below…

PS — this would have implications for US entities owning foreign assets, but I haven’t figured out how to make this work globally without making people/firms flee the US.? Ideas are welcome.? Thanks to all readers/commenters, I appreciate all of you.

Ways to Buy Cars

Ways to Buy Cars

To start, I will extensively quote a prior article that I wrote on the topic:

When I buy a car, I analyze what car I would like to buy.? I look at reliability, repair costs, overall costs, and style.? I use Consumer Reports to help me analyze this.? Then I go to the website(s) of the manufacturer in question, and copy the data on all of the used models on offer at the dealerships within 30 miles of me.? With price as the dependent variable, I then run a regression with model year as dummy independent variables, and total miles as an independent variable.? After I run my regression, I look at the cars with the biggest price deviations, the predicted price is a lot higher than actual.? I then look at the features of the underpriced cars, and choose one where there are good features with a discounted price.

I go to that dealer, review the car, test drive it, and if it passes my tests, I haggle over the price, and buy it. ? In my experience, this cuts thousands off the price of the car.? What a great reason to have studied econometrics.

But then there is another way to do it, and I have done it before with success, and you can review it here.? Decide what car you want to buy, and solicit offers from nearby dealerships, and buy the cheapest offer. ? For used car, you will have to adjust for quality.

I will offer you one more tweak which stems from this article from my bond manager days.? Call up all of the dealers offering the car that you want and tell them that you will buy from the dealer that offers the best offer, but at the second place price.? You’ll have to explain it on average at least once more.? If you want bonus points, mention that this idea stems from the research of a Nobel Prize winning economist William Vickery.? In my experience Vickery auctions even the odds against the experts, because it takes them out of their comfort zones, and makes them bid.

=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

One final note: I have one idea that I think is a hole in the system — an area that I think harbors inexpensive cars relative to their value.? In applying the first method — gathering prices and mileages and running a regression, I found one class of vehicles to almost always trade cheaper than they should.? Cars with low mileage that are old tend to be underpriced.? There is a lot of variability here, but if you want to buy a car cheaply that is in good shape, it is a good initial screen to find some good vehicles because people prize younger cars overly, even if they have been driven heavily.

My idea here gives you a way of buying something of greater quality, though unusual, for a lower price.? There’s usually a story behind the vehicles, but it often involves vehicles that had owners that rarely drove them, then had an accident, and the insurance company bought the vehicle as part of a settlement, an a used car dealer rebuilds the car, buys it cheaply, and sells it for what is for him a large markup, but cheap compared to the mileage and condition of equivalent cars of later vintages.

There.? Some practical ways of saving some money for you.? Hope it works well for you.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

 

China

 

  • China’s first bond default could be good market medicine http://t.co/8ShFniYM Bond trader: “We don’t really have a credit risk culture.” $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • Is China’s slowdown worse than previously estimated? http://t.co/CkZw8tLK Could b business conditions that are worst since 2009. $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government Risks http://t.co/qpPicyEe China has a clever bureaucracy; always has; big CYA $$ Mar 25, 2012
  • Chinese capitalism is just another knockoff http://t.co/w2hSozQL China is not Capitalist; it rewards Party members, not citizens. $$ Mar 25, 2012
  • Debating a ?Hard Landing? http://t.co/NMnYk2XX friendly debate – Andrew Batson & Patrick Chovanec over China facing a ?hard landing? in 2012 Mar 25, 2012
  • I Am Jordan’s Complete Lack of Surprise: Chinese Co’s Forced to Falsify Data http://t.co/BMj7ux0T Command & control economy, not free $$ Mar 25, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • The Nature of a Crowded Trade http://t.co/sf1phJjP A July 2008 article of mine where I reflected on the high correlations of the prior 3 yrs Mar 31, 2012
  • A Market Lacking Diversification http://t.co/khXUVjaL Correlation conditions similar to 2006-2008, only diversifier hi-qual long bonds $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • Pension Deficit for 100 US Company Plans Increased 41% in 2011 http://t.co/FdIZTltW Low long hi-qual rates & cruddy returns on risk assets Mar 31, 2012
  • 2277 Stocks and Still Not Diversified? http://t.co/iu0Pw8Ty Recommended solution is similar 2a levered version of the Permanent Portfolio $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • New from Aleph Blog The Rules, Part XXXI: The offering of liquidity through limit orders is a real service to th… http://t.co/ZiuzWIo5 Mar 30, 2012
  • Passive Aggressive: Index-Linked Securities and Individual Investors http://t.co/ZrjMCKCz Curbs stock picking, encourages factor timing $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Bankers are telling corporate clients this is their chance to refinance http://t.co/Eh9tHEX6 The window of cheap junk financing is open $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • New from Aleph Blog Replacing Defined Contributions: I think that it is pretty certain that defined contribution… http://t.co/Dis34ql2 Mar 27, 2012
  • What Will Replace the 401(k)? http://t.co/miLAuoYc How about DB pensions where it depends on how much the employee kicks in plus match? $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • US Stocks Advance Following Bernanke?s Comments http://t.co/D7sORuIU Stox react 2 increases in inflation expectations. TIPS & Bonds fall $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • Hedge Funds Capitulating Buy Most Stocks Since 2010 http://t.co/XHwxzxNO Short-term money alert! Will propel mkt 4 a while, then… $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • If Bloomberg Business Week is a better magazine than old Businessweek (I think so), what magazine should we use now 4 a dumb $$ indicator? Mar 26, 2012

 

Asset Management

 

  • Nontraded REITS should be a nonstarter for clients http://t.co/O1ZuMvX8 And here’s one that just announced a 72% loss: http://t.co/la8d29my Mar 31, 2012
  • Oaktree IPO Could Pay 2 Founders $117.2M Each http://t.co/Yufla6Jk The Most Important Thing is getting rewarded 4 building AUM 😉 $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • The Trouble With Exchange Traded Notes http://t.co/ZL7dVpjO Unsecured credit, total return swaps, low level of regulatory protection $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • Good 4 all of us RT @frankvoisin: My interview Research Magazine’s April issue: http://t.co/zioono6R Also features @VitaliyK @alephblog $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Bain Gave Staff Way to Swell IRAs by Investing in Deals http://t.co/4LlAExBt Letting employees in on the fun shares the wealth. Good $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Lying By Omission: Mutual Funds, Track Records & Departing Managers http://t.co/4MUyNRYs Track recrds shuld b suspended when critical ppl go Mar 29, 2012
  • New from Aleph Blog A Pox on Promoted Stocks (2): By this time, I would think that it would be worth the the tim… http://t.co/DJkH6E4W Mar 28, 2012
  • The Measured Approach to Value http://t.co/XiZOUMOn Features investors Vitaliy Katzenelson & Croft-Leominster, & smaller Frank Voisin & me Mar 28, 2012
  • GoodHaven Realizes Its Vision http://t.co/zJVmCFMa The CIO of Markel, Tom Gayner showed them favor and invested with them. Good for them. $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • What This Industry Needs is a Good Disruption http://t.co/imKDcElR There r a few areas of the financial industry that justify their fees $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • Found PDF slide presentation: http://t.co/0GfhME7m The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study $$ Worth a read, paper not free @ SSRN Mar 26, 2012
  • Treasuries Rise for Fourth Day on Global Growth Concern http://t.co/JYpanHTu Funny how the sentiment has reversed; who is surprised? $$ Mar 25, 2012

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • @kyles09 No, not a believer in MMT, MMR, or neoclassical macro. 2 much aggregation, not everything happens at once, goods/services central + Mar 30, 2012
  • @kyles09 and $$ only facilitates goods/services. Debt is important, but not central, some goods owned outright, w/no liabs. Money is a + Mar 30, 2012
  • @kyles09 creation of a culture, not the government, because @ the edges, FX & commodities will crowd out bad currencies. MMT -> inflation $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • What Does Bernanke Know? http://t.co/LydpOqk1 Introduces “The Guy Rate” http://t.co/zNVeUYmP Unemployment of older guys has hi costs Mar 29, 2012
  • Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless http://t.co/NWKHcpCD In 2011, the Fed purchased 61% of Treasury issuance. That can’t last. $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Bitter Money Fights Shaped U.S History http://t.co/36jWnkQq Abandoning Gold Helped Dollar Gain Preeminence http://t.co/QbYMkTNL $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • For the last tweet, those r2 good articles by Simon Johnson & James Kwak, authors of ?13 Bankers? & co-founders of The Baseline Scenario $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • Housing bubbles and interest rates http://t.co/9TfzMpt2 Makes my point that asset price levels should be part of monetary policy $$ Mar 31, 2012

 

Banking & Finance

 

  • FiveBooks Interviews > @Ritholtz on Causes of the Financial Crisis http://t.co/RQQZfHTz Many good perspectives from 6 authors on the crisis Mar 31, 2012
  • Geithner?s Math Puzzle Beyond Numbers for DeMarco http://t.co/Eg9BjcgE Principal forgiveness would have moral hazard impacts. $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Why not make LIBOR off of binding offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group $10M short-term unsecured? Avg — LIBOR/LIBID $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Libor Links Deleted as UK Bank Group Backs Away From Rate http://t.co/HOy8TOof British Bankers? Association distances itself from LIBOR $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Branson?s Virgin Money Seen Disrupting U.K. Retail Banks http://t.co/bPcD8im7 Always been a Branson skeptic; he have audited financials? Mar 30, 2012
  • Why not make LIBOR off of binding bids/offers of the banks to borrow/lend to any of their group 10 million dollars sh? http://t.co/wK3HyopV Mar 29, 2012
  • Is Hartford Financial’s market exit a death knell for the annuity crowd or just more Hartford haplessness? http://t.co/AUEVqxWQ Both. $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • The Birth (and Death) of the Moral Age of Wall Street http://t.co/eStszd7i At one point the moral code of $GS had some meaning, not much now Mar 29, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap More subtle than that; for insurance accounting &the concept of release from risk, it is the conservative side of realistic $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • A Proposal for the Resolution of Systemically Important Assets and Liabilities: The Case of the Repo Market http://t.co/WYQGAVVx +1 $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • But, disagree. Would b simpler and more effective to disallow repo financiers unrestricted access to collateral even in counterparty default Mar 26, 2012
  • Obama Relies on Debt Collectors Profiting From Student Loan Woe http://t.co/pYWwgLq2 How independent debt collectors get people 2 pay $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • A Bailout by Another Name http://nyti.ms/GRTNMM GSE writedowns would constitute a direct & sizable gift from taxpayers 2 the largest banks Mar 26, 2012
  • Banks? preemptive strike against Dodd-Frank http://t.co/wjHW0nyv Banks adjusting strategies in order to keep doing as much biz as possible Mar 26, 2012
  • MF?s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says http://t.co/cYaT9sHy The most likely cause may prove to b correct $$ #corzine Mar 26, 2012
  • BOE’s Tucker: Rehypothecation Consequences ‘Under the Radar’ http://t.co/0X8ZQMMH Good. Rehypothecation should b reviewed, perhaps limited Mar 26, 2012
  • @EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest I would still lay the blame @ the door of $GS mgmt. Could have grown via retained earnings &stayed private $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • @EpicureanDeal @dsquareddigest Also, there r real advantages 2 partnership culture in an investment bank; risk control works a lot better $$ Mar 26, 2012
  • The Age of the Shadow Bank Run http://t.co/deJRQGgy Borrow short, lend long; clip a spread. Surprise! During the crisis you lose big! $$ Mar 25, 2012
  • The Interest Rate Swaps that Are Bankrupting Local Governments http://t.co/yHQZ1r3u Not true. Gov’ts tried to minimize taxes w/swaps, failed Mar 25, 2012
  • Three?s a Crowd http://t.co/KHtbrqpe Disagree w/the conclusion, because $GS did not have to go public; problem is mgmt, not shareholders $$ Mar 25, 2012

 

Pensions

 

  • Brazil?s pension system http://t.co/90O97tQ4 They allow people to retire too early & offer too much. More unsustainable than Medicare $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • @AlexRubalcava Perhaps a cash balance plan would do that. DB plans are not expensive because of explicit costs. They r expensive b/c + Mar 28, 2012
  • @AlexRubalcava during boom times benefits look free and get set too high, leading to high costs in the bust phase & plan terminations. $$ Mar 28, 2012

 

Politics

 

  • Obama Is a Loser Who Wins, Like FDR in 1936 http://t.co/K0x9go0T Don’t assume a bad economy insures the defeat of Obama. FDR won in ’36 $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • The Rejection of Austerity Begins http://t.co/CgWKa9x6 Until failure, ppl vote 4 politicians who promise magic prosperity thru govt fiat $$ Mar 30, 2012
  • Germany: The Final Frontier… Whose True Debt/GDP Is Now 140% http://t.co/KgW2d76E When you add up the guarantees, doesn’t look so good. $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Justices Suggest Parts of Health-Care Law May Be Thrown Out http://t.co/cMvKHR20 B best 2 throw the whole law out; let Congress start over Mar 29, 2012
  • Contra: Court Can?t Let Broccoli Get in Way of Health Care Law http://t.co/5Yp2o8tB Sup Ct is moving 2 define interstate commerce better Mar 26, 2012
  • Death Tax Defying http://t.co/FrkL5yLB Eliminate the estate tax; Tax everyone on unrealized capital gains. $$ Same result. Mar 25, 2012
  • Intelligence community can keep data on Americans with no ties to terrorism for up to 5 years http://t.co/PCM7ldiG Stinks; call the ACLU $$ Mar 25, 2012

 

US Economy

 

  • Why Natural-Gas Prices Could Fade to Red http://t.co/GApb0xie When everyone tries 2 frack @ once, there is too much natgas, price falls Mar 30, 2012
  • US coal production declines as industry faces further stress http://t.co/l3WpZtDC Fracking has unpredictable consequences; affects energy $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Bidding Wars Erupt as U.S. Supply of Homes for Sale Falls http://t.co/JsgIdewr In certain locales, & on the low end, there r bidding wars Mar 29, 2012
  • The Biggest Bellwether In The World Is Giving Some Ominous Comments About Growth http://t.co/vHWs9lwB $FDX says things r slowing down $$ Mar 29, 2012
  • Planned Pipelines to Rival Keystone XL http://t.co/qQZ1Dsj2 Enterprise Products Partners & Enbridge may build competing pipelines $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • ‘Pink slime’ producer suspends operations http://t.co/CvptYPhU Goes from 4 factories to 1. 600 people will probably lose their jobs $$ Mar 28, 2012
  • @valuewalk @The_Analyst It is better for students to start small businesses. Forget economics, it is a waste. Profit/loss best teacher $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • The Economic Surprise Index is now trending down http://t.co/eJCEEdvy @soberlook reminds us that not everything is going well $$ Mar 27, 2012

 

Miscellaneous

  • Like it? I’ve actually bought cars that way! RT @mprobertson: http://t.co/UHdFL0Eu How to buy a car using game theory. very interesting. $$ Mar 31, 2012
  • Eating Chocolate Regularly May Make You Leaner, Survey Suggests http://t.co/l8c6MMpA This means one dark chocolate Dove promise/day $$ Mar 27, 2012
  • The second most dangerous people in the world are smart people with wrong postulates. Mar 25, 2012
  • The most dangerous people in the world are politicians who peddle the views of the smart people with wrong postulates. $$ Mar 25, 2012
  • Madoff FBI Files Reveal How He Fooled His Own Employees http://t.co/lmq2AoZG Gives hope to those accused; Madoff controlled data tightly. Mar 25, 2012
Replacing Defined Contributions

Replacing Defined Contributions

I think that it is pretty certain that defined contribution [DC] plans 401(k)s, 403(b)s, 457s, much as they have grown to be dominant, have been a failure.? Many, though not all people like the illusion of control, and seeing their cash balance — makes the pension plan tangible, even if they don’t get what they will really need at retirement.

Pension plan reform has to face three realities.? The first is people don’t know how much to put away for retirement.? I’ll give you a hint: for almost all people, it should be over 10% of your gross pay.? The second is that people don’t know how to invest, so hand it off to advisors who will do it for them, and cheaply.? The third is silent, and leaves a lot of money on the table — most people would be better off taking an annuity from their pension plan than a third party, or trying to manage a lump sum on their own.? This is usually an option only for defined benefit [DB] plans.

On the last point, annuities from insurance companies will almost always be inferior to those from DB plans — the investment policy of the DB plan will likely yield more than the investments of the life insurance company.? The DB plan has more ability to take risk, and its expenses are lower.

And speaking of lower expenses, that’s another reason to replace DC plans.? Not only do DB plans provide better security, they have lower expenses.

But employers don’t want to fund expensive DB plans, particularly in a low interest rate environment.?? Fine, that’s not what I am arguing for.? I am suggesting an odd sort of DC plan:

  • Participants can contribute what they wish
  • Employers can contribute what they wish
  • Professionals manage the assets; no asset management by participants.
  • During active employment, the cash balance can transfer with a change of employment.
  • At retirement, it converts to a DB plan, and an annuity is granted, more generous than could be obtained privately.? The retiree does not get the agony of managing a lump sum.

I think this would lead to much better results for plan participants.? The case would have to be made to participants that they have not done well managing their own funds — they will underperform by less through third party managers.? Also, few are good at managing lump sums for income.

This is the sort of plan that would yield better results for most, given that DB plans are out of favor, and participant-directed DC plans lead to high expense lousy results.? Best to have a hybrid plan.? Trustee-directed DC plan for accumulation.? DB plan for distribution.

That’s how I would structure it at present.? Better ideas are welcomed.? Thoughts?

Misunderstanding the Tax Debate

Misunderstanding the Tax Debate

This should be a short post, because my comprehensive view on tax reform is found here.? The summary is that the problem is not tax rates.? The problem is the definition of income.? Just as in ancient times, people would make themselves look poor when the taxman came, so do the wealthy do today.? “Income? I hardly earn any income.”

And that is because of loopholes in the tax code for social engineering purposes, but even more for the ability to defer taxation of what should be income.? My view is that we should all be taxed like traders, with no opportunity to defer taxation.? No tax deferral for IRAs, HSAs, 401(k)s, DB pensions, insurance, annuities, endowments, stock (even private stock will have to report transactions).?? As asset prices rise, you would get taxed.? No deferral.

You might think this is an ugly system, and it is, though Zillow would have one amazing business when the government uses it to tax increases in housing values, with a true-up at the eventual sale.? They might even find new business by creating pricing grids for other sets of illiquid assets.

The idea is that taxation should follow value creation, which is income, even if it is not cash income.? Gone would be the days where one has an appreciating asset, and borrows against it, and pays no tax.? All increases in value would be taxed, and assets where the increase can’t be measured would assume a 15% annual return for taxation purposes, with a true-up at the sale of the asset.

Deferred tax liabilities would be made payable in a few years, and deferred tax assets would receive payment in the same period.? Deferred gains in stock would be immediately taxable.? Hello, Mr. Buffett, you want the rich to pay taxes, here is your bill.

This would include an elimination of all deductions, corporate and individual.? And, I would beef up the IRS to enforce this.? Once the concept of income gets simple and immediate, enforcement gets easier.? The IRS could focus on one question: how much are they prospering?? Tax in proportion to that.

A proposal like this could rapidly balance the budget without raising tax rates.? Now none of the midgets running for President would adopt such an idea — it offends both the left and the right.? But it would raise taxes on the rich, unlike what an otherwise bright guy like Buffett proposes.? Rates aren’t the question, the question is the definition of income.

And until we focus on the definition of income, we will continue to drift as a nation, at least until a crisis hits that reveals our weakness.

Book Review: Backstage Wall Street

Book Review: Backstage Wall Street

I have long wanted to see a book that would teach ordinary investors how to avoid being cheated by those that create/sell financial products.? If this book isn’t it, the one that surpasses it will be astounding.? If Wall Street is a show, this book gives you a peek behind the curtain.

This book is really four mini-books in one:

1) How the author became a broker, and the ethical difficulties that were forced on him in the process.

2) The difficulties faced by do-it-yourself? investors, and the benefits of exchange-traded funds [ETFs].

3) On Brokerages, and all their conflicts of interest, culminating in the straight line pitch.

4) Investments to avoid, and advice from the wise.

That it is four in one is not a weakness but a strength.? Wall Street has many ways to skin investors, and each section provides insights that different people will benefit from.? It is a more comprehensive book in its short 240 pages as a result.

On Brokers

The first part of the book describes Wall Street as it was and is, with all of the players and their motives.? Josh spares no one; the tone of the book is cynical, but not unduly so, noting all of the problems with a profane sense of humor.? Some of the funniest bits of the book are recollections of conversations with greedy parties seeing an edge.

There is a certain level of despair for young brokers as they “cold call,” knowing that if they don’t succeed, they will be let go, but driven by the possibility of riches should they succeed.? Those who are successful gain money, prestige, bragging rights, and some level of freedom from tight control.

I have my own experience with this. though mostly on the institutional side where I told such brokers “Why would my client want that?!”? It’s astounding what level of deception those who sell investments will engage in, until they realize you can’t be conned, and then they use your ideas to con others.? (The institutional brokers only make money on transactions; if they know you are smart, they facilitate your ideas at the expense of those less talented.? Ugly, I know, but I didn’t invent this.)

On Do-it-Yourselfers

Now, if you are a total “do-it-yourselfer” like I was in the ’90s, where I researched and bought my own stocks for myself, with some success, this is not for you.? This is for those who research and use mutual funds and ETFs.? It goes into the history and development of asset management fund structures, explaining why they are how they are.

He also describes how the modern era came into existence with discount brokerages in the ’70s, and how during the bull of the ’90 it morphed into anyone can make tons of money, just buy stock!? One thing Josh does not talk a lot about, but was significant, was how when fixed commisions ended, the real reason for maintaining research staffs died.? And, when tick sizes moved from a eighth to a sixteenth to a penny, the reasons for having market makers and specialists dried up.? But you can’t cover everything.

One particularly funny part is page 110, with its real-life definitions of fund types.? Josh is at his best in the section where goes after leveraged and inverse ETFs, where a lot of investors lose money because they are meant to track daily performance of indexes, and generally lose money for those that hold them long-term.? He is similarly good when he criticizes the proliferation of ETFs that are too unique, and will never get a broad following.

On Brokerages

Brokers position themselves as experts, when they are really order-takers.? They hire analysts that are not that good on average, and issue more buy than sell opinions, which facilitate the investment banking and trading businesses.? It talks about the stories that brokerages tell in order to captivate people and make them invest.

And then, Josh discloses the “Straight-Line Pitch,” which has been used on many investors to make them invest with the brokerage.? I have to admit, given some of the initial publicity on this point, and my own experience with brokers, I was dubious about this part of the book, and, Josh leaves it to the end — this is the climax!

I was pleasantly surprised, and I would recommend that all investors read chapter 20.? Why?? To immunize yourself from the clever talk that boxes you in as they offer slick answers to your objections.? That is a major reason why I read books on marketing: I can’t be tricked!? (But it does force me to do my own research.)? If you don’t want to be tricked by clever brokers, read chapter 20.? It isn’t necessarily the best chapter of the the book, that will depend on your own needs, but chapter 20 is unique.

Oh, and why have I not experienced this? Being a total do-it-yourselfer, I told brokers that I knew better than they did; it led to some weird conversations as they found I knew more about it than their talking points.

Investments to Avoid — Advice from the Wise

Most bad investments are either volatile or illiquid.? Why do brokers sell illiquid investments?? Because they get high commissions.? Same for insurance agents.

Then there are investments that sneak between the regulatory cracks, like Chinese reverse mergers, Special Purpose Acquisition Corporations, and anything with secondary guarantees, or the sale of options to enhance income.

Ask the broker this: who can I sell this to if I don’t like it someday?? Who makes an active market in this?? Any pause on this, and don’t buy.? No pause, but an answer — write it down, and check it out.

In one sense, part of the answer to the problems this book brings up is to realize there is no urgency.? If it is a good idea today, it will be good a week from now, let me talk with smart friends and figure out if the idea makes sense.

As for advice from the wise, he invites about eight of his friends to opine on a variety of topics.? Most of them are well-known, but at least a few of them are obscure, unless you are in the business.? I found the counsel to be sound, aside from an obscure former actuary who writes on investments.

Quibbles

On page 118, he talks about how Vanguard would have been a natural for the ETF business, and how Bogle delayed them from getting in.? This is true, but Bogle resigned in 1999; I was at a dinner for his retirement in 1998 in Philadelphia, and met him and Brennan, his successor.? The first Vanguard ETF was created in 2001, VTI is the ticker.? Vanguard did not play a large role in ETFs until 2005, but to say they weren’t in the business is not correct.

Also, ETFs are not as good as they seem, because average investors in them trade them wrong, buying high and selling low.? ETFs do not correct for bad investor timing, even if they are lower-cost.

Who would benefit from this book: If you aren’t a total Do-it-Yourselfer in investments, you can benefit from this book, because it will teach you about the motivations of those who try to sell investments to you, and those who manage money for you.? If you want to, you can buy it here: Backstage Wall Street: An Insider?s Guide to Knowing Who to Trust, Who to Run From, and How to Maximize Your Investments.

Full disclosure: The author is a friend of mine, so I asked for the book.? He said ?yes? and he sent it to me.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

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