Category: Public Policy

At the Cato Institute Monetary Policy, Part 2

At the Cato Institute Monetary Policy, Part 2

The next panel:

Lawrence H. White
Professor of Economics, George Mason University

Richard H. Timberlake
Author, Constitutional Money

Scott B. Sumner
Professor of Economics, Bentley University

Lawrence White begins with obstacles to alternative means of exchange.? Why should the government have a monopoly on what is money?

Liberty Dollar — one ounce silver pieces denominated in dollars. When silver was $5 denominated at $10.? When silver was $10 re-denominated at $20.? Arrested based on code 18-486 outlaws minting your own coins, dating back to the Civil War to compete with greenbacks.? Still awaiting sentencing.

eGold — Accused of money laundering, and transmitting money without a license, even though gold is not “money.”? Essentially a gold credit card.

Ability to transfer money is a human rights issue.? Government interest not just legal tender laws and trying to tax capital gains.

Moderator: FATCA compelling every bank to disclose customers.

Dick Timberlake

Talks about clearinghouse loan certificates, and how they became less than fully reserved over time, prior to the Fed.? Warns against tight relationships between the Fed and the Treasury.

Scott Sumner

NGDP targeting was a right-wing view, now viewed as left-wing.? Argues that monetary policy has been too tight over the last five years.? Again, ignores the overindebteness of the economy.? Confuses and ignores the loose monetary policy 2001-2007.? Views the fall of asset prices as evidence of tight monetary policy.

Makes lame argument that bubbles are hard to spot.? Gives a false dichotomy that the crash in housing did not cause rise in unemployment.? Of course, but that misses the real cause, that the US economy was over indebted.? Wages/GDP is his proxy for unemployment.

Europe worse than US…

Q&A

Q1 — argues NGDP targeting has forecasting problems.? Sumner says if Fed had followed TIPS, would have loosened policy sooner.

Q4 — Sumner says he does not trust the CPI.? All the questions are going to Sumner.

Q5 — Can the internet outsmart the regulators and create alternative money?? White: alternative currencies flourish in extreme situations.

Q6 — My question: was monetary policy policy too loose 2001-7?? Sumner downplays the monetary policy effect on the housing bubble, and says the banks were misregulated (I agree with the latter, but not the former).

Q7 — Weren’t clearinghouses exclusive? Timberlake seems confused.? Poor guy.? Argues clearinghouses were not exclusive generally.? It was a free banking era of sorts.

Ten Years of Investment Writing

Ten Years of Investment Writing

I’m late on this.? My first foray into public writing on investing was when I started writing at RealMoney on October 17th, 2003.? But how did I get there?

Sadly, almost all of the works of RealMoney prior to 2008 are not accessible.? My first effort was writing Jim Cramer the day after General American Life Insurance failed on August 10, 1999.? He wrote a short piece asking why no one was paying attention to the failure of a major life insurer.? He wanted to know what happened.? I had heard about the failure, and so I searched for more data on it, and I saw Cramer’s article, only one hour old, so I sent him an e-mail as “your friendly neighborhood investment actuary.”

I explained the situation to him in about three hundred words, and lo and behold, my e-mail was featured in a post by Cramer that very day saying how amazing it was that he could get such a cogent explanation that was not available elsewhere on the web.

Not wanting to wear out my welcome with Cramer, I e-mailed him maybe eighty times over the next four years, with occasional e-mails to Herb Greenberg and Howard Simons.? I e-mailed mostly bond market and insurance information.? But in the period from 2000-2003, information on the bond market from an active institutional participant was interesting.? At least, I thought so, and Cramer usually returned my e-mails, as did Herb Greenberg.

In August 2003, after I had taken a job as an insurance equity analyst at a financial services only hedge fund, Cramer e-mailed me, asking me to write for RealMoney.? I don’t have the actual e-mail, but he said something to the effect of “You write better than most of our contributors.? Please come write for us.”

I went to my boss to ask permission, and he refused.? After some pleading on my part, he eventually relented.? That said, when Cramer wanted me to appear on “Mad Money,” he refused, and did not give in.? He did not want the name of his firm associated with Cramer.? I was disappointed, but I understood.

At RealMoney, I wrote about a wide variety of topics as I do at Aleph Blog.? My editor one day called me and after we chatted for a while she said to me, “Did you know that you are our most profitable columnist after Cramer?”? I expressed surprise, and asked how it could be.? She said that I wrote more comments in the columnist conversation than most, and my comments were substantial.? Also, readers would read and re-read my posts, which was rare at RealMoney.

My objective was to teach investors how to think.? I did not want to get into the “buy this, sell that” game.? My most unpleasant memories revolve around bad calls that I made on a few stocks.? I think it was fewer than five stocks, but when you get it badly wrong, passions are heightened.

Cramer and I often disagreed with each other at RealMoney.? I felt I had friends with Cody Willard and Howard Simons, and a few others like Aaron Task, Roger Nussbaum, Peter Eavis, etc.? If I didn’t mention you, please don’t take that as a slight, I just can’t remember everything now.? I thought highly of most of the cast at RealMoney, including the news staff, who would occasionally call me for advice on bonds, insurance, or investing theory issues.

I resisted the idea of starting a blog.? I said to my editors at RealMoney, “The Columnist Conversation is my blog.”? But in early 2007, while trolling the comment streams on Jim Cramer’s blog, and making comments defending him, a number of readers told me that I was one of the best writers on the site, so why didn’t I emerge from Cramer’s shadow?

I thought about this hard for about a month, and then I did it, after doing my research.? I created Aleph Blog, with the first post coming on 2/17/2007, and the first real post on 2/20/2007.? That first real post was prescient, and laid out a lot of what would happen in the bust.

But as I started, the Shanghai Market crashed, and Seeking Alpha pushed one of my posts to the top of their front page.? Cody Willard pushed another post of mine to his media contacts.

I was off and running without doing that much to advertise my blog.? I appreciated that because I think the best way of advertising my blog is to write good content.? I don’t generally like to quote large amounts of the writing of others, and add a few comments from me.? To me, that seems lazy.? I would far rather spend some time, and give you my thoughts.? I’m not always right, but I am always trying to give you my best.

After ten months of blogging, I stopped contributing to RealMoney because I liked the editorial freedom that bloggng offered.? I was never writing for RealMoney in order to get paid, so not getting paid at Aleph Blog was not a problem.

At Aleph Blog, I write about what resonates within me.? That usually produces the best results, though because I write about a wide variety of topics, some people don’t know what to expect of me, and aren’t interested in what I write.? I understand that, and I am not unhappy with a smaller audience.

What I did not expect when I started blogging was that I would do:

  • Book Reviews
  • The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager
  • The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager
  • The Education of an Investment Risk Manager
  • The Rules

and other series at my blog.? I did not consider that I might be a conference blogger for notable institutions like Bloomberg and the Cato Institute.

I also did not realize that I would take aggressive stances against a wide number of semi-fraudulent financial practices like penny stocks, structured notes, private REITs, and a wide variety of other bad investments.

It’s been a lot of fun, and I did it to give something back.? With great power comes great responsibility, and that is why I blog.? Nothing more, nothing less.

May the Lord Jesus Christ bless you.

Thanks for reading me.

David

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Companies & Industries

 

  • Twitter Sold Some Stock http://t.co/oIwxhl5BAh Valuing speculative companies is tough. Ask how much of sectoral profits they could grab $$ Nov 08, 2013
  • Then discount that at 20%/year, and decide whether you have enough margin for considerable error. I don’t think Twitter gets there. $$ Nov 08, 2013
  • Most US Blockbuster Stores to Close http://t.co/Q77XgZEYGI The internet changes everything; anything that can be bytes is blown to bits $$ Nov 07, 2013
  • Utilities in Pain Selling Renewable Assets at Record Rate http://t.co/0v5YgeAoVj Utilities don’t want 2 allocate capital to low returners $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • FHFA Takes Aim at ‘Forced’ Insurance http://t.co/FZslhVSyLp Won’t happen, b/c banks won’t lend if proprty is uninsured against casualties $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Coconut Crisis Looms as Postwar Palm Trees Age http://t.co/C5Ub4BnEgu Coconut Trees have aged w/not enough replanting, cuts into yields $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Makes me wonder whether the life companies didn’t also raise mortality charges in order to make up 4 compressed/negative interest margins $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Universal Life Policies Hurt by Low-Rate Era http://t.co/qEcwGR3gTQ Guaranteed rates high relative to current interest rate environment $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Western Digital Adds Helium to Enterprise Hard Drives http://t.co/tCj4H6ksC4 More storage, less power use,aids big data | FD: + $WDC $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Here’s How Much Berkshire Hathaway Made On Financial Weapons Of Mass Destruction In Q3 http://t.co/F7actdnrmv Buffett wins | FD: + $BRK.B $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • The new American capitalism: Rise of the distorporation http://t.co/KKp7BK91xA Thinly capitalized corporations that distribute profits $$ Nov 03, 2013

 

Politics & Policy

 

  • Obamacare Website Frustrations Persist as Deadline Looms http://t.co/NA5zV7cze1 Harder to fix bad code than to rewrite the system $$ #loser Nov 08, 2013
  • Artificial Trans Fats in Food Deemed Unsafe by US FDA http://t.co/sXf5r5DjjO Y R we limiting freedom in something so basic as food? $$ Nov 08, 2013
  • Obama’s Catastrophic Victory http://t.co/Z9gryN2oA7 Wait till people with bronze policies have to pay their costs prior to the deductible $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • It would involved tort reform, & encouragement of charities to aid the sick, & would shrink Medicare & Medicaid, moving 2a free market $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Real health reform would remove all government preferences, including the employer deduction, & move to a client pays directly model $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Colorado Education-Tax Measure Fails http://t.co/GV5rpq9NSQ Interesting datapoint; even 4 local schools, difficult 2 raise income taxes $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • SEC Fines Greater Wenatchee Regional Events District4Misleading Investors http://t.co/oDHpxG5o6I Failed2disclose certain finl projections $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • CFPB Debt Collection Rules May Move in Unprecedented Direction http://t.co/G5LBwfc3em May even affect ability to collect on private debts $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • BlackRock, Fidelity Face Initial Risk Study by Regulators http://t.co/SwyaxP14HB That they would consider this proves they r clueless $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Obama repeatedly promised people could keep their health insurance under Obamacare http://t.co/dS84R05kzH Law affected ability 2 do that $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Jonathan Tepper on Obamacare http://t.co/L163WSrcaL A relatively neutral assessment of PPACA, which does not reduce oligopolies & costs $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Wells Fargo Said to Face US Mortgage-Bond Probe http://t.co/nrbZQOiGHy FIRREA statute used. $BAC $CSGN $JPM $C $WFC all face these probes $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • A tax break for wealthy landowners under scrutiny, from @BBGVisualData http://t.co/lTxFAEPwwk Many parties allied to keep low value break $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • IRS Cracks Down on Breaks 4 Rich Americans http://t.co/dN6dtnTCQG Cracks down on conservation easements; graphic: http://t.co/8jKqjCi7na $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • McDonnell v. Royal Dutch Shell Plc 13-cv-07089 http://t.co/HMbTcvLdEV <– If anyone wants 2c the complaint on Dated Brent Crude Rigging $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Congress May Push Milk Prices to $8 a Gallon http://t.co/kPPeJ42YlP The solution is 2 end milk price supports; have a free market in milk $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Obamacare Expedited Bidding Limited Who Could Build Site http://t.co/EEa2UKZQ78 US Medicare&Medicaid Services preapproved 16, only 4 bids $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Obama’s Broken Promise of Better Government Through Technology http://t.co/eaYVdiAYAj Technology is only as good as its implementation $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • A Stage-4 Gallblader Cancer Survivor Says: I Am One of ObamaCare’s Losers http://t.co/9nZLusmknt PPACA sob story #2 loses coverage & docs $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Mr. Obama, I Am Unhappy That Obamacare Threatens To Kill Me. http://t.co/T3YnjqYzRJ PPACA sob story #1, loses his healthcare coverage $$ Nov 04, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • The Biggest Little Secret In Money Management http://t.co/zeIzMWJmIz Most new fancy strategies can mostly be replicated in simple ways $$ Nov 08, 2013
  • The Dividend Challenge http://t.co/icI80BpcoR E.g., In 1993-1994 dividend-oriented funds did horribly as rates soared. Divs aren’t magic $$ Nov 07, 2013
  • Of Debt, Growth, Interest Rates and History http://t.co/ZEG4za0XLg High debt & real interest rates tend to dampen economic growth $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Many bonds only have a small number of holders, so it gets easier to guess who the big traders might b, thus affecting the market price $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • When bonds don?t trade http://t.co/71JD7XbJ9S Difficult to facilitate buyside trading w/each other; they want to keep their moves quiet $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Gross Loses World?s Largest Mutual Fund Title to Vanguard http://t.co/HfpH7pURgE Wonder if Pimco is 2big 4 Gross’ quant strategies 2 work $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Over the last 10 years investing in venture capital has not outperformed public equity (Pg 5) http://t.co/GnBTZPRhz0 Capital Index.pdf $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Investors Return to IPOs in Force http://t.co/Hn9RFceouq Fresh Fruits r opposite of IPOs, good when plentiful, IPOs bad when plentiful $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • New Homes Get Built With Renters in Mind http://t.co/j4NYgVS54n If investors r truly long-term 4 running rentals, this could b stable $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Reduce the noise levels in your investment process http://t.co/XUE0HYpWGt @ritholtz guides us in telling us what chatter 2 avoid hearing $$ Nov 03, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • China?s Soviet-Style Suburbia Heralds Environmental Pain http://t.co/7Sk5too1g1 Central planning fails again $$ Nov 07, 2013
  • Kyoto Veterans Say Global Warming Goal Slipping Away http://t.co/DCqPxzIJcE No incentive to cut carbon emissions; eg, Germany’s coal use $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Rankings That Rankle http://t.co/xB5bftp7yb Rather than reform further, China would rather shoot the messenger bearing bad tidings $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Merkel Facing Power Dilemma as Coal Plants Open http://t.co/fMLyBrg7Zz Note that Germany does not care much about CO2 emissions $$ Nov 04, 2013

 

Central Banking

 

  • Greenspan?s Bequest to Yellen Is Board Harmony Shown in Records http://t.co/gIdq6MQjnX more interesting is Volcker offering 2resign in 86 $$ Nov 07, 2013
  • MSNMoney’s Jubak:Fed Has No Way Out of Its Mountain of Debt http://t.co/TVhTheDWSj No surprise. Central bank balance sheets rarely shrink $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Kozicki Shows Central Bankers Only as Good as Forecasts http://t.co/GwhwxkRLYe Proves we shouldn’t rely on neoclassical economic models $$ Nov 06, 2013

 

Personal Finance

 

  • The red-blue divide in personal finance http://t.co/OgS2PL0jgh Shares my view on Dave Ramsey; useful 4 $$ management, avoid on investing Nov 06, 2013
  • Can I repo a car if I co-signed the auto loan? http://t.co/2xJp83ppnt Rather, lend them the $$ w/a formal loan document; NEVER co-sign!! Nov 05, 2013
  • Mom co-signed, now stuck with student loan payments http://t.co/uVenTWv2Oc Never co-sign, not for a child, parent, friend, anyone, ever $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • The 4% Safe Withdrawal Rule Declines to 3% http://t.co/pSvGBLgXhC My rule: Take 10Y Treasury yield, +1% if neutral, +2% if bullish $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Banks offering mortgages with only 5% down payments http://t.co/w62w0qwnOX Financing long-term assets w/low equity helped create crisis $$ Nov 05, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Excel monkeys unite! For today, we are cancelling the circular reference! http://t.co/6D7H9NekSi On the challenging Modeloff competition $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • The siren call of Microsoft Excel http://t.co/g5isxFXJJS Excel has its uses, but not for security, audit & production. Use 2 prototype $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Symbolic Family: De Blasio Success Shows Sea Change for Interracial Couples http://t.co/uzJWeUY0zq We’re one race: We’re human $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • More Commuters Self-Driven, Census Finds http://t.co/XRcRJ7fSo3 Surprising that no one has found an internet-based solution 4 carpooling $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Game of thrones with world chess champion Viswanathan Anand http://t.co/HnEv9GbmRh Long piece on the reigning chess champ & new challenge $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Anand On How Computers Have Changed Chess http://t.co/UPjZs61f70 Most openings have become transparent; only odd openings offer surprise $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Simple Tech Fix Could Allow Millions to Hear – Bloomberg http://t.co/1HrLV8Vj2u Transmits sound directly to a listener?s hearing aid $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Capt.James A. Kirk Takes Command of Navy Vessel http://t.co/DYj4Noyp8z His nickname is “T.” His vessel has advanced cloaking abilities $$ Nov 04, 2013

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong Fed Study: Lengthen Low-Rate Guidance to Fix Unemployment Faster http://t.co/Sf3X2lsDOz No data on unemployment in liquidity trap $$ Nov 07, 2013
  • Wrong: Why ‘Rate Shock’ Is An Essential Part Of Health Reform http://t.co/jxxmJQcpTo People should not be forced 2buy more than they want $$ Nov 06, 2013
  • Wrong: Think inside the (right) box; 5 must-read business books http://t.co/VmxZHuFqsf I read “Big Data.” Good, not great. Rest look iffy $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • “Disagree. I read “Big Data.” Good, not great. Others look iffy, particularly ‘Antifragile.'” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/wcVPO5mmxK $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • Wrong: Economists overvalue stock markets http://t.co/vaWef32JS7 Stock prices provide valuable economic signals: http://t.co/XyaEJqXwGn $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Wrong: Americans? Debt Hangover Seen Ending in Boost to Growth http://t.co/pJXgAYeEwt The consumer remains highly leveraged vs history $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Wrong: If It Looks Like a Bank, Regulate It Like a Bank http://t.co/8BA1XlrLAJ Money market funds don’t look like banks; very safe assets $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • Wrong: Asymmetric Return With A Catalyst http://t.co/FTHYYP2Rwx Writer doesn’t get difficultly of getting free $$ from life insurers $HRG Nov 04, 2013
  • http://t.co/jH200iYZyT Comps of $MET & $PRU – horribly optimistic. $NWLI would be better. Another reason I don’t read seeking alpha $$ $HRG Nov 04, 2013

 

Comments, Replies & Retweets

 

  • RT @pdacosta: “Forward guidance is a stupid academic fantasy grabbed by those who wish to escape making real policy.” – @AdamPosen h/t @NHe? Nov 07, 2013
  • RT @pdacosta: A tragedy and a travesty: Unemployment in Spain http://t.co/u4UlylupKH Nov 06, 2013
  • http://t.co/fwt1rLXORs You could try applying the same to Title and Mortgage insurer kickbacks.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/El8F8V0690 $$ Nov 05, 2013
  • @ritholtz First Bloomberg View Column: Welcome http://t.co/rqAqgL8slw Bloomberg picks up a great columnist grown from financial blogging $$ Nov 04, 2013
  • “Well done, Barry. Your writing skill has taken you above and beyond.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/c42lp6sH6i @ritholtz new @bloomberg $$ Nov 04, 2013

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Market Impact

 

  • Keep the Economists off the Trading Desk http://t.co/3E3OoDJLrS As Howard Simons said, “Stocks are not GDP futures.” Ignore the economy $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • ‘Skew’ Measure Points to Excessive Market Optimism http://t.co/sT8aVfJ2MI Calls priced high, puts priced low & we r not so bad u know? $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Bear hunting http://t.co/nvnCpNfl1G Bear shortage has a few wondering who is left to buy from existing stockholders $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Amazing fact #1: Market has been unexpectedly strong since May 1 | Amazing fact #2: Market?s YTD 2013 returns have never been negative $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • 3 ?amazing? facts about the stock market http://t.co/SKog36iBgE Amazing fact #3: The stock market?s Sept and Oct have both been positive $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Wall Street is way too bullish http://t.co/dBNe8oaeho Collapsing time horizons may presage a bearish turn for the risky asset markets $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • BlackRock?s Fink Says There Are ?Bubble-Like Markets Again? http://t.co/cgj8MI5vls “Fed policy is contributing to ‘bubble-like markets.'” $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Five Bad Ways to Pick a Mutual Fund http://t.co/9ZXV7y0lWv Good as far as it goes. Important: don’t chase performance or ratings $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • How Our Brains Betray Us http://t.co/ZFzTZT4t1t We tend 2b 2 optimistic about the future,& not realistic enough about the present $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • JP Morgan’s Subprime Troubles Ran Deep http://t.co/df0Ok7fQG4 The originators r all dead, so they go after one of the last standing $JPM $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Bond-fund charts of the day, rising-rates edition http://t.co/q7DDAectXI Where @felixsalmon finds the speed of rates rising matters a lot $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Six Ways to Ensure Qualified Borrowers Can Get Mortgages http://t.co/S7XBegLn4k Unrealistic article, though the part on servicing is good $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Is Your Pension Courting Catastrophe? http://t.co/0kMj4FdCpO Good summary & resources, but few pensions invest 2much in CAT bonds $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Are CAT Bonds The Answer to Today?s Retirement Planning Woes? 2 Early 2 Tell?More Transparency Needed! http://t.co/M7taq4X2XE Not4retail $$ Oct 28, 2013

 

Companies & Industries

 

  • Phillips 66 to Build Texas Terminal to Export Propane, Butane Overseas http://t.co/XIUbREChpH Exporting nonstandard fuels from fracking $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • PwC Agrees to Purchase Booz to Expand Advisory Services http://t.co/TW21OqwH5Q Conflict of interests: auditing firms 4 which they consult $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Now Amazon Is Just Giving Money Away http://t.co/mdtioUbM4K $AMZN -> great nonprofit that eats businesses continues like Galactus $$ #nomnom Oct 31, 2013
  • Stop Subsidizing Colleges? 100-Year Debt Binge http://t.co/76w7ngChue Colleges r more fragile than 2 last 100 years; don’t lend 2 them $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Dell?s Mitzvah Rescued Buyout as JPMorgan?s Lee Warned of Perils http://t.co/hKyGu1VCnj Da dirt, da whole dirt & nuttin but da dirt $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Who?s Right About Apple?s Cash Pile: Cook or Icahn? http://t.co/ZJNFMpVtXu Simple: Cook. Most of the $$ is overseas & can’t easily return Oct 30, 2013
  • How Mobile Technology is Changing the Way We Dine Out http://t.co/Su0Po5ezxx Social media affects how people choose restaurants $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Why Consol is Diving Into Natural Gas While Others Jump Out http://t.co/m3nIsWFv8a Oil > Natgas > Coal | Simple, huh? $CNX $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

Insurance News

?

  • Harbinger Insurer Switches to Iowa Watchdog From Maryland http://stks.co/hsV7 Decamping 4 a more friendly & sophisticated regulator $$ $HRG Nov 02, 2013
  • Berkshire Hathaway defends asbestos claim-paying record vs stories by Mark Greenblatt of Scripps News http://t.co/lYcEQH13Ea FD: + $BRK.B $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Buffett?s $40B Cash Pile Provides Acquisition Fuel http://t.co/WYZ5AWsBaj Would view largest private companies look4 transitional probs $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Lincoln National Wins $4 Billion Annuity Reinsurance Deal http://t.co/E3v9AwvDb4 I find this dubious, but $WFC is the likely loser $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Crop Insurance Hazards Shown in Lost Pheasants in Grasslands http://t.co/s96GcQn8jw W/Ag doing so well, we need to end the Ins subsidies $$ Oct 30, 2013

?

Other

 

  • No Bones About It: Day of the Dead Is Finding New Life http://t.co/AGzU8olA1b Life is for the living; let the dead bury their own dead $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Little Sign of Housing Bubble in Land Prices http://t.co/P8LyXzvyZu Overinvested for a long time; we shouldn’t subsidize home ownership $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • The 50 Greatest Breakthroughs Since the Wheel http://t.co/Hy0ePPNa9W Ambitious article that explains why innovation benefits us all $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Drones Delivering Pizza? Venture Capitalists Wager on It http://t.co/njvc3uysge Sadly, the pizza was cold when it arrived. $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • If New York Freezes in January Blame Siberian Snow Now http://t.co/7oMGUa8poK These tendencies r weak, like most things on global warming $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Cheaper Laser Sensors for Self-Driving Cars Are on the Way http://t.co/Nx09HA3zEW If sensors r that expensive, driverless cars r far-off $$ Oct 30, 2013

?

NSA / Privacy

 

  • Furious Tech Giants Fight Back Against NSA Surveillance http://t.co/KSNmBfE2v4 Ripple effect from Snowden’s revelations get bigger weekly $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Edward Snowden Has Japan Copying China?s Playbook http://t.co/iZ1sKibSSd Excessive secrecy creates environment for government wrongdoing $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • How anti-NSA backlash could fracture the Internet along national borders http://t.co/gswU55LYiS Democratic nations hate being NSA snooped $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • NSA infiltrates links to Yahoo, Google data centers worldwide, Snowden documents say http://t.co/Sr5YZD4u74 $$ shot: http://t.co/fTFufojKwz Nov 01, 2013
  • Tax delinquents by the thousands have security clearances, GAO finds http://t.co/8VnAziQSVN Easier 2 suborn someone who is in debt $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Obama Unaware as US Spied on World Leaders: Officials http://t.co/DTz36LPrPE The surveillance state takes on a life of its own $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • The NSA?s Rent Is Too High http://t.co/xSGkk8GZvy Even if what they do were legitimate, they cost Americans far too much $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

PPACA / Obamacare

 

  • Health Policies Canceled in Latest Hurdle for Obamacare http://t.co/eT3EkcotYp I’m grandfathered for now, but how long will that last? $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Obamacare?s Biggest Threat Isn?t the Website http://t.co/az9Imf0qBK burdensome complexity subsidy-based plan; failure universal coverage $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • You Can Keep Your Health Plan* http://t.co/Wi5xqZvdrB *Except if it not a health plan that the Obama Administration does not like $$ #lies Oct 31, 2013
  • Obama Tempers Insurance Pledge as Health Fight Rages http://t.co/fpZPH27KML An arrogant man who doesn’t understand economics and lies $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Yes, People Are Losing Their Insurance Under Obamacare http://t.co/8aqWoASQfl Affects some people who buy their health plans on their own $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • The ObamaCare Awakening http://t.co/P01zM98SNZ Americans are losing their coverage by political design. That’s a feature, not a bug $$ #lose Oct 30, 2013
  • Insurers Oppose Obamacare Extension as Danger to Profits http://t.co/nsIz2wSoyT Clever Obama got the insurance companies2carry water4him $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Americans lose coverage, Democrats say Obama too rosy about health care law http://t.co/jGg1lWtJA7 My plan was canceled; i had no choice $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • How Jon Stewart became President Obama?s biggest problem http://t.co/YAJ8fOnFJZ Lousy efforts from the govt deserve 2b exposed $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Desperately Needed: More Geriatricians http://t.co/THkwfgtFqn We cannot create more Geriatricians via fiat in the sort run $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • The First Cracks http://t.co/UAnrYjlzXQ Some Democrats begin to question PPACA/Obamacare $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Will Toilet Rules Prove EU’s Waterloo? http://t.co/0jLUpeIA1a Standardizing toilet specifications across different cultures is futile $$ Nov 02, 2013
  • Japan Stocks Sink to Monthly Worst in Developed Markets http://t.co/XHJewfR5NZ Really difficult 2c how Japan normalizes econ policy $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Ignore Greek Elections: Stocks Might Be the Best Buy in over 60 Years http://t.co/7tKWQ365RW Good call from @valuewalk timely/contrarian $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Greek Recovery Makes Stocks World?s Best as Paulson Buys http://t.co/m25XYjWQsE Buy on the rumor, sell on the news, stick a fork in it $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Eike Batista’s Empire Soared, Then Melted Into Bankruptcy http://t.co/3lh9catSFf At best, a huckster. At worst, a robber. A cheater $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Japan Salaries Extend Fall as Abe Urges Companies 2 Raise Wages http://t.co/jOprQhpTsk Abe has quite an imagination; markets will dictate $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • OGX Bankruptcy Filing Caps Batista?s $30 Billion Demise http://t.co/MkIdlrCKNv He seemed incredible to me at first, he is credible now $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Political Gridlock, Beijing Style http://t.co/xCrcTd2htZ Entrenched economic interests fight Party leadership seeking economic reform $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Rebuilding Reserves Means U-Turn on Treasuries http://t.co/5EH3t378gb The $$ is not the only game in town, better liquidity than others $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • India Breast Cancer Surge Hinders Private Exams for Women http://t.co/Fumyl2WHTO Big problem, few resources; makes me feel sorry for them $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Study Sheds Light on the Dark Side of China’s Urbanization http://t.co/GZFyxNKEHn Communism alienates from the means of production $$ #China Oct 30, 2013
  • The Lust Beneath Japan’s Sex Drought? http://t.co/APyIFrlth7 Japan’s sex culture is perverse, & their society shrinks as a result $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • The China Americans Don’t See http://t.co/E8FwXk1H6W China is weaker than it looks b/c it can’t handle dissent against the Party $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers http://t.co/9LiFTr8BED Every dog has its day, & this bond mgr rates a healthy “arf” $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Man Making Ireland Tax Avoidance Hub Proves Local Hero http://t.co/Iy2CVenb3f Controversial fellow who is not universally admired $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

Monetary Policy

 

  • Fed?s Bubble Alarm Stuck on Snooze http://t.co/Wwx4fARLH4 Not in Fed’s interest 2 go bubble hunting, do bad enough w/inflation & unempmt $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • JP Morgan sees ‘most extreme excess’ of global liquidity ever http://t.co/WurN40hJfP Global QE leads to a surfeit of spendable funds $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Yalies Yellen, Hamada Put Tobin Twist Theory to Work in QE http://t.co/Okj2CGXZfo Op Twist might work at low debt levels, not at high $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Sen. Paul Ties His Fed Bill to Vote on Yellen Nomination http://t.co/5hBSNbsOCg Auditing Fed’s monetary policy decisions is a good idea $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • http://t.co/SrNx6yfP2T Negative interest rates are a way for the government to steal from those that want to keep their risk profile low $$ Oct 28, 2013

?

Politics & Policy

 

  • Prosecutor Pleasantly Surprised to Find There’s a Law Against Fraud http://t.co/nqneLdc6JP Regulators use FIRREA to prosecute finl fraud $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Wife Poisoning Husband?s Lover Tests Weapons Law at High Court http://t.co/0p7Otz5hyD Upheld, would federalize all crimes using chemicals $$ Nov 01, 2013
  • Speedy Lunches Urged at SEC as Union Decries Time-Clock Watching http://t.co/RpXErNaSct Never knew SEC workers had a union $$ #huh Nov 01, 2013
  • Policymakers think of investment like magic; just because u invest does not mean everyone will be better off; investment can b a waste $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • 12 Steps toward a Simpler, Pro-Growth Tax Code http://t.co/vQWaVnHUw8 Problem is 2Much deferral of income tax & favoring investment $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Gross Says America?s Privileged 1% Should Pay Higher Taxes http://t.co/c9i5W8i9R2 Real problem is definition of income; 2much deferral $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Counties Made for Horse and Buggy Reject Savings http://t.co/oZshDLJGA6 Ppl value tangible/local govt & don’t begrudge its costs so much $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Budget Deficit in US Narrows to 5-Year Low on Record Revenue http://t.co/9puVuXTbNm But it needs 2 shrink further, it is 2 big $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Obama’s Broken Promise of Better Government Through Technology http://t.co/bWn3F3Pphy Bigness of govt tends to sabotage tech development $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Christie Confounded as Padded Services Send New Jersey Taxes Soaring http://t.co/HTRKeQwchD NJ & corruption? We r supposed 2b surprised? $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • The expected future payments from defined benefit plans is the acid test for municipal finances; that includes social security & medicare $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Pension Pinch Busts City Budgets http://t.co/dUid8OAyuI W/underfunded plans, watch the cash cost curve: what u expect to pay going fwd $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • The Great Pension-Bonus Giveaway Fiasco http://t.co/JWiO616X5e One of the stupidest things in pensions, allowing ppl 2spike benefits $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Evangelical Pastors, Marriott CEO United on Immigration http://t.co/1AG0STUpK2 So long as we do not give them benefits, immigrants r good $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Armed agents seize records of reporter, Washington Times prepares legal action http://t.co/NCJ33BSDjG State & Military abuse reporter $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Software Helps GOP House Majority Leader Isolate ?Astroturf? Emails http://t.co/eDPLGwo1a7 Easy 2c lazy ppl who only have time 2 copy $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Mystery of the ‘Missing’ Global Warming http://t.co/3xkNAd50JA Argues that rising water temperatures r more indicative of the problems $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Colorado Secessionists Struggle as Trend Lifts Democratic Votes http://t.co/BJ9g0CbS6K Secessionists r unrealistic; Congress won’t do it $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Reagan Revolution Misses Tax Fiefdoms Flourishing in US http://t.co/feUsHyGL5B Many local municipalities levy taxes; some do little $$ #IL Oct 30, 2013
  • Obamacare and the Death of Liberalism http://t.co/VLVk1GiJrT Liberalism ends when entitlement promises fail; I say give it 10-15 years $$ Oct 30, 2013

 

Wrong

  • Wrong: Germany Hits Back at US Over Economic Criticism http://t.co/hsoeuvvtLd Neomercantistic Germany’s surpluses will not get paid back $$ Oct 31, 2013
  • Wrong: Startup Defeats the Captcha, Wins One for the Machines http://t.co/vVAMnaBdJG Captchas have evolved beyond what has been cracked $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Wrong: The political middle is dying. But it?s not redistricting?s fault. http://t.co/zRplttRK5w We need to force the middle to govern $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • An interview with Alan Greenspan http://t.co/eLgAExy6bQ One constant w/Greenspan is he will not accept blame for the mistakes he made $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • Wrong: PPP and Japanese Inflation Expectations (Extremely Wonkish) http://t.co/1G5MpBSnhw As usual, Krugman says inflation won’t hurt $$ Oct 30, 2013

?

Replies, Retweets, & Comments

  • $$ @ritholtz It is a plan if you prefund the deductible, which many medical service providers r requiring w/PPACA plans b4 service granted Oct 31, 2013
  • @viccan1 I don’t believe in conspiracy theories Oct 31, 2013
  • First, this isn’t new. I had professors talking about this in the early 1980s. Second, what may work when… http://t.co/MDJSt6EHaQ Oct 30, 2013
  • I do not want to spend my days, writing out the i’s & j’s. But i’s & j’s are an enigma, when squashed between a double sigma $$ #mathpoetry Oct 30, 2013
  • If you too should choose to skew sir, with the skew-goose, please sir, do sir — w/apologies to Dr. Suess $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • http://t.co/prav9FGJ2h “Now Fink tells us. He was more of a cheerleader for QE at its start.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/MNHiiBTfnp $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • “The difficulty w/prosecution is apportioning blame. Easier to go after the corporation.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/qOh82vAqvU $$ Oct 30, 2013
  • RT @RCdeWinter: This seems truer and truer every day. http://t.co/cKGi6IBdJH Oct 30, 2013
  • RT @TFMkts: Exactly how has QE helped jobs? NFP pattern no looks no different before and after QE http://t.co/Y0IUuDxT3B Oct 30, 2013
  • RT @mccarthyryanj: Amazing hire of @MattGoldstein26 by @DealBook. A really big loss for Reuters Oct 30, 2013
  • “Consider Stocktwits. They created cashtags. To refer to Google, you would type $GOOG. Twitter?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/ZxWfSQjwze $$ Oct 28, 2013

 

The Municipal Pension Payment Curve

The Municipal Pension Payment Curve

This article was originally going to be titled, “Dying Cities, Dying States, Dying….”? I thought that would be correct but too pointy.? The key to thinking about pensions is to look at the likely cash flows for current and former employees.

Here’s my scenario: a municipality decides to terminate its overly generous defined benefit [DB] plan, and though it is 30% underfunded, they agree to not let underfunding get greater than 30%.? Sadly, the discount rate on the pension cash flows is 8%/yr, but the likely investment earnings rate is 6%/year.

Here’s the graph of pension payments to beneficiaries, and contributions to the plan:

Pension Payment curve_14804_image001

At the beginning of this scenario, pension payments were 10% of the municipality’s budget.? Assuming taxes only grow at the rate of 2%/year,? contributions to pensions are not less than 10% of the municipality’s budget until 2049.? As a share of the budget, it peaks out at 32% from 2032 to 2035.? It’s over 20% from 2022 to 2043.

30% underfunding isn’t that uncommon, and discount rate assumptions of 8% aren’t that uncommon either.? Would that all municipalities were at discount rates of 6%, or at my more likely view, 4%.

But it doesn’t matter.? We can argue over assumptions.? The cash flows actually paid to beneficiaries do not rely on assumptions.? The assumptions exist to try to allow pre-funding, so that municipalities fund their plans to the same degree that benefits are accrued.? Some municipalities have done that with pensions, almost none have done it with retiree healthcare, but the retiree healthcare promise is much weaker one.? You can turn it from a Cadillac plan to hospice care, in many cases.? In this case the state constitution matters a great deal, so do your own homework here.

Part of my advice to you is to watch weaker states and municipalities, like Puerto Rico, Illinois, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and many others.? I don’t have all of the data in front of me.? This is one of those cases where relative standing is important.? People will migrate out of areas with low funding, and high expected payments, and into municipalities with higher funding, and lower expected payments in relative terms.

You will see municipalities depopulate, because the taxes are disproportionate to the increasingly slim services rendered, because much of the revenue pays for the overly generous past promises to retirees.? As a result, you will see more municipal bankruptcies.? I would expect that you would see most of the bankruptcies in the 2020s.

I know that’s vague, but I think it is more defensible than Meredith Whitney’s notable statement a few years ago.? The pension cost curve is inexorable, and I suspect most municipalities can bear it for the next six years, but will have a hard time with it as the tail end of the Baby Boomers retires in the 2020s.

Advice

1) If you are in an area under pension stress, if you at all can, not harming your existing earnings, move to an area not under that stress.? Remember, as other people move, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain existing services.? Think of the slow police response times in Detroit, and packs of stray dogs that roam the city.

2)? If you work for a municipality, consult your state constitution to see what you are guaranteed.? In many cases, healthcare will not be covered.? Even existing pension benefits in payment now may be under threat in a default.? Be aware.

This is one of those cases where the rich will get richer, and the poor will get poorer — better to be on the rich side of the line, and sooner.

Final Note

All that said, we face the same issues with Social Security and Medicare, though both are unfunded.? At present, Social Security’s payments will be cut by 25% or so in 2026, unless some adjustment is made to the system.? Medicare is another issue, and the question is what will it cover.? It could be stripped back a great deal when the US realizes it can’t fund a generous system that extends life a few years at high cost.

My main point to all of my readers is to be aware of the imbalances in the existing systems, and be ready for the coming adjustments, because the US economy will not be willing to make all of the payments that have been promised to oldsters who have served the public.

The Rules, Part LVII

The Rules, Part LVII

The more that markets are united through derivatives, the more systemic risk is created.

Derivatives exist to subvert regulations, at least the regulations that don’t involve derivatives.? Ideally, derivatives allow those that want to take on a given risk, to have the ability to do so.? And the same for laying off risk.

But here’s the difficulty.? You can create all the derivatives you want, but total risk never goes away, it is only shifted.? There are many idiosyncratic risks for which there is no natural counterparty, i.e., one that faces the opposite risk.? What does it take to get someone to speculate on a risk?? Well, you have to offer them good terms, such that on average, they have the expectation of a profit.? The speculator may try to delta-hedge, and/or cross-hedge his risks, or he may not.? But the speculator is usually in a weaker financial position than the hedger.? Let me give an example:

In the insurance world, with a few exceptions, large direct writers have higher ratings than reinsurers.? And for what few reinsurers of reinsurers there are (“retrocessionaires”) they usually have lower ratings than the reinsurers.? There is a tendency for the economic world to arrange itself like a Collateralized Debt Obligation.

Think about it.? In a CDO, the junior tranches insure those that are more senior against loss.? In exchange, they are offered a higher yield.? That’s what goes on with those that speculate with derivatives.? The one being insured typically gives up some economics to the speculator.

Now if this goes on in a small way, there is no trouble.? But if large numbers of parties lay off their risks in this way, a large amount of? risk is in the hands of speculators which don’t have the best balance sheets.? It’s not as bad as people holding stocks in 1929 on 10% margin, but you get the idea.

Anytime risk is concentrated in the hands of those less well capitalized, there is heightened systemic risk.? Think of AIG writing gonzo amounts of subprime AAA RMBS CDS for a pittance.? Everyone on Wall Street took advantage of them, except for one thing — because everyone was insured by AIG, no one was truly insured by AIG.? If the Fed hadn’t stepped in, who knows who could have been insolvent — and that’s what should have happened, with the regulators letting holding companies fail, but protecting regulated subsidiaries, so that ordinary people would not be harmed.

When risks are in the hands of those with weak abilities to bear risk, not only are the weak affected but the strong also.? The strong, thinking their risks are covered, lever up more because they aren’t worried about the risks.? When the weak fail, and the strong find that risk is shifting back to them, they find that they themselves are hard-pressed, because they don’t have so much equity to cushion the losses.

There is no free lunch with risk.? The most we can do is try to analyze who is bearing the risk.? If it is in strong hands, we don’t have to worry.? If it is in weak hands, perhaps it is time to reduce risk, and not synthetically, but by genuine sales of assets.

If we want to solve this problem we should require insurable interest, and only let hedgers initiate transactions.? But who will take on the lobbyists?

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Interest Rates

  • How Sensitive we are to Interest Rates: A Scary Picture? http://t.co/gkKi3sSLbs Argues moderate rise in rates inverts banks & governments $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Fixing Economy As Easy As 1-2-3 http://t.co/sbW97kL2n7 Axel Merk says 2 make policy predictable, let interest rates rise & allow failure $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Low Rates Bring Bond Bonanza http://t.co/f8gQ0rjcTB Corporations act to lock in cheap long-term financing 2pay dividends & buy back stock $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Fed QE Taper Seen Delayed to March as Shutdown Bites http://t.co/v2Bo85GP9m Would not b so sure here; this is only a survey of economists $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • The ‘Rate Gap’ Is Rising http://t.co/w9dSYfQCl5 Gap between deposit rates & borrowing rates is higher than it’s been in 32 of last 40 yrs $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • Alan Greenspan: Where the Economy Went Wrong http://t.co/a7t3RGvbSZ Fed does not get they created the housing bubble; learn the bond math $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • Javelin Files 2 Trade Interest-Rate Swaps, Spurring SEF Shift http://t.co/B6KOHsmmpy Smart. Start w/simple liquid derivatives @ exchanges $$ Oct 20, 2013

?PPACA/ Obamacare

 

  • Court could block Obamacare subsidies in 34 states http://t.co/ej65x9fALf Legal challenge could knock out the federal exchanges $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Botched Launch of Health Site Blamed on Poor Coordination http://t.co/iwH5vsbftX The software developers point the finger at one another $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Federal Centers 4 Medicare and Medicaid Services acted as its own systems integrator for the site: unusual arrangement 4a complex project.$$ Oct 25, 2013
  • White House Sets Late-November Target for Fixes to Health Site http://t.co/WebNZLBebq UnitedHealth Group Unit Tapped to Oversee Repairs $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Obama Says Health Care Law More Important Than Website http://t.co/SopPqG99ky If a law can’t b administered properly what good is it? $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Why Obamacare Is Like Three Mile Island http://t.co/STOU4Ng3KL Problems in overall plan design were foreseeable; not merely and accident $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Noonan: ObamaCare Takes On Water http://t.co/cpKjIyJZWg Software development is difficult when no single party responsible for everything $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Contractors See Weeks of Work on Health Site http://t.co/WUoqiaiMtZ Have friends that once worked 4 CGI; to them this is no surprise $$ Oct 22, 2013

Rest of the World

 

  • Top China Banks Triple Debt Write-Offs as Defaults Loom http://t.co/DYNZ8shAV5 They trying to get ahead of the problem, but it’s too big $$ Oct 26, 2013
  • Local Governments Have Borrowed a Pile of Money in Recent Years, Leaving Even Beijing Wondering How Much $$ http://t.co/YZKTKDUjs0 Oct 25, 2013
  • Jail Time No Bar to Tea-Server Turned Top Woman Bureaucrat http://t.co/WKWO4MmPwu While detained, she used the free time 2 read 150 books $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Yakuza Bosses Whacked by Regulators Freezing AmEx Cards http://t.co/qCKQI7Mo4s Money is often the easiest thing to track; leaves a trail $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • I realize that @Borderscrossed , & I phrased that tweet wrong — the Chinese typically play w/lower risk ventures. This is unusual 4them $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • China Inc. Battles Big Oil for Century?s Biggest Find http://t.co/CCm4QxgpC8 They have capital, but not expertise, & r rolling the dice $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Obama Joins Putin War as Syria Jihadists Stalk Olympics http://t.co/zxwpTvWiv1 The Winter Olympic games in Sochi could be a real blast $$ 😉 Oct 25, 2013
  • Saudi Women Plan to Hit Roads in New Push for Right to Drive http://t.co/Iu78Zmsxp0 Fear: if they r allowed 2 drive, will drive out of SA $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • 40 Years After Embargo, OPEC Is Over a Barrel http://t.co/6CcliMnOkv Few things r truly certain. Dead Worries: OPEC, Russia, Japan, China $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • The Chinese Characters Dictation Competition Is a Test Few Could Pass http://t.co/5MnpMaMozF Chinese spelling bee w/ideographs; tough $$ Oct 20, 2013

US Politics & Economics

 

  • Financial Report of the US Government http://t.co/9rknzA89Te Here’s my piece. The unfunded liabilities of the Fed Govt r ~$78T $$ 5x GDP Oct 26, 2013
  • If you call a crash & you get the reason right, that *is* impressive; timing is always tough. Hint: look for a arb that has gone negative $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • ?Outrageous? tax loopholes in Democrat?s sights http://t.co/ibntGjND15 Every loophole has coalition to block its elimination; won’t work $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Budget Discord Simmers Among Democrats http://t.co/gdNJqQTXEI Some Liberal Groups, Lawmakers Worry About Cuts 2Entitlements $$ biggest issue Oct 25, 2013
  • Treasuries Lose Cachet on Lowest Foreign Demand Since ?01 http://t.co/0PhlcmXXqv Bondholders have short memories; wouldn’t worry $$ $TLT Oct 25, 2013
  • Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Chances: The Coming Train Wreck http://t.co/JN61FbNNrY Will test whether having a long political resume is good $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Never believe anything in Washington, DC until it is explicitly denied. The US Government has lied to us in the past $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • The Lessons of Classified Information: From Mossadegh to Snowden http://t.co/Ab7ytJrdRA CIA plot in Iran widely suspected, now confirmed $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Middle Class Americans Face a Retirement Shutdown; 37% Say ?I?ll Never Retire, But Work Until I?m 2 Sick or Die,? $$ http://t.co/oGDNMful7I Oct 25, 2013
  • Reality is setting in if 37% think they won’t b able to retire. http://t.co/LA9KI4Tvrx Reality will arrive when number is 80% $$ $TLT $SPY Oct 25, 2013
  • Selling the Good Life on the Great Plains http://t.co/fKl4Jh8syI Rural areas pitch the slower pace to city dwellers in order to survive $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Stanley Druckenmiller: How Washington Really Redistributes Income http://t.co/Cbkv9FyRu9 Baby Boomers suck the blood of those younger $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • Banks Pushed by Regulators Send ?Nastygrams? to Car Dealers http://t.co/W9RC6BJP7x Discrimination in lending is taking heat from the CFPB $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • Two articles on States Clamping Down on Workers as Contractors http://t.co/QQXoTSRZOU & http://t.co/a1OUq8MvNE Develop significant skills $$ Oct 20, 2013

Companies & Industries

 

  • Abby Johnson, the rarely seen face of Fidelity http://t.co/6dJHDIm7ES Wonder if the Washington Post pulled the story under pressure $$ $WPO Oct 25, 2013
  • Might Google Have a Sly Motive Behind Motorola? http://t.co/FwtqFYXYoV Argues that $GOOG bot Motorola 2 poison profits 4 $AAPL & $SSNLF $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Cruise Prices Sinking: Some Now Cheaper Than Motel 6 http://t.co/dhjvxc8ytS They will leave the light on 4u; the buffet will b open 2 $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Buffett says he passed on buying Washington Post http://t.co/dvZciwJDJh Definitely one to avoid, or throw in the “too hard” bin $$ $WPO Oct 25, 2013
  • Wal-Mart Now Draws More Solar Power Than 38 US States http://t.co/ysFvCFHWgr Drop the solar subsidies, and see if $WMT would still do it $$ Oct 25, 2013

The Financial Sector

 

  • Margin Debt Hits New High http://t.co/r0bXQwBs6X Where will additional buying power come to push up stock prices? Only game left is QE? $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • House flipping makes a comeback http://t.co/VAIcl86lQk Speculation returning to housing market; remember, only cash flows matter 4 prices $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • PCAOB Warns on Internal-Control Problems http://t.co/ZKZQwBnICe 15% of Auditors didn’t get enough data on internal control effectiveness $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Weitz to Yacktman Hold Cash as Managers Find Few Bargains http://t.co/RXFoMbBJfX Not many places 2 compound value w/margin of safety $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • US extends backing for higher-priced mortgages http://t.co/Yk5zHr9CcW Continuing to subsidize overinvestment in residential real estate $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Buffett Says Gains in Housing Fall Short of Equilibrium http://t.co/aMp5aawapZ Rare wrong Buffett; US overinvests in residential RE $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Dollar Drops to 8-Month Low as Risk Appetite Swells on Fed Bets http://t.co/KtQDmkS4Yf Fed surprising w/unexpected looseness so $$ falls Oct 20, 2013

Other

 

  • A CIO?s First Task: Understanding the Culture http://t.co/4cg1GdKBZo Understanding the culture is a key to most leadership roles $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Never Shop in October and Other Secrets From a Retail Guru http://t.co/KoWB9NYsmt Tips on how to avoid how retailers try 2 influence u $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • The Boss Is Watching: Tracking Technology Shakes Up Workplace http://t.co/WDAzYg1MJK Little brother watches 4 employees who shirk $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Ex-Madoff Employee Tells Jury of ?Cut And Paste? Trades http://t.co/SJCd2TU13b Employees claim they were duped by Madoff. Q: were they? $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • Book Review: ‘Johnny Carson’ by Henry Bushkin http://t.co/OTB8HMQK6e Bombastic Bushkin gets 2 dance on the grave in this tell-all book $$ Oct 20, 2013
  • So You Want to Go to Winemaking School? http://t.co/JdpI5QCE6t Visit the UC-Davis viticultural & oenology program. $$ #wine Oct 20, 2013
  • It isn’t only one of the oldest winemaking programs in the country, but arguably the most prestigious $$ #wine Oct 20, 2013
  • The First Car You Can Build Yourself… in an Hour http://t.co/bZF43gH3ti Pretty cool for a little more than $8000 $$ Ships in a box Oct 20, 2013
  • The Gap Between Schooling and Education http://t.co/zJGqxgkoTT @AnnieLowrey interviews author of forthcoming book: http://t.co/bgftBBsT7d $$ Oct 19, 2013
  • Schools amplify parenting cultures. Motivated parents create good schools; too many top-down demands on schools inhibits true learning $$ Oct 19, 2013

Wrong

  • Wrong: Another billionaire is predicting doom. Ignore him. http://t.co/qh8BBp0izo Rather ignore this writer; doesn’t understand the stats $$ Oct 26, 2013
  • Wrong: Does the United States have $128 trillion in unfunded liabilities? http://t.co/D5Z3dkPICT Writer does not understand the figures $$ Oct 26, 2013
  • Wrong: Stanley Druckenmiller crisis predictions: Anyone can call a bubble years in advance. http://t.co/0W9FhMyHKT But few succeed $$ Oct 25, 2013

Retweets, Replies & Comments

  • I wrote about that more than once @DividendMaster . E.g. http://t.co/SrBiSHsHVZ $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • “They are reinvesting their free cash flow, which is different than profits.?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/bt0CCZW9zH $$ $AMZN Oct 25, 2013
  • Same Old Amazon: All Sales, No Profit http://t.co/FL6ZbcGh8j $AMZN borrows2fund investment & uses free cashflow, much like private equity $$ Oct 25, 2013
  • RT @JimPethokoukis: 11.2%: What the unemployment rate would be if labor force participation was the same as when the recession started Oct 23, 2013
  • Experian Sold Consumer Data to ID Theft Service http://t.co/tjJbAXXxuN @japhychron yes, significant reason to worry & watch 4 ID theft $$ Oct 22, 2013
Pursue Generational Accounting

Pursue Generational Accounting

I am one of the endorsers of the INFORM Act.? I have believed for over 25 years that younger people need to understand the costs that they are undertaking for the comfort of older people.? The government has resisted such clarifying measures because they don’t want younger people to know how badly they are getting hosed.? Since the creation of Social Security and Medicare, each succeeding decade of people has gotten w progressively worse deal.? Young people should know that they are going to get a decidedly negative return out of Medicare, so that they can be politically active to reduce their losses.

I encourage you to support the INFORM Act — after all, what should be the problem with telling the American people the truth?

Traveling with David

Traveling with David

Sometimes I over-commit my time.? That’s been the last few days.? Recently I went to visit a friend who had lost his job at a large company, to look over his severance papers, and advise him.? He is older, a “minority,” and only been with the firm 5-6 years.

Severance agreements have gotten a lot tighter since the two that I have personally experienced.? Corporations dangle some compensation to eliminate possible future legal costs.? I pointed out to my friend the most likely reasons he might sue, but added two things:

  • The company has a large number of sharp lawyers, so you had better have an open-and-shut case.
  • We’re Christians, so we don’t go to court over small matters.

But what impressed me in reading the agreement was how airtight it was — can’t sue over Federal, State, Local, or common law offenses, or anything else.? Which made me think about another thing… the connection between entrance and exit doors.

In investing, people are more wiling to invest if they can have their money back at any time.? With employment, it is the same — employers are more willing to employ if they can fire people for any reason.

Every protection for those employed makes it harder for those without work to be employed.? This also forces jobs to go underground — if advertising them publicly subjects them to regulation, then the good jobs will be filled via “word-of-mouth.”

This takes me back to the early days of the Reagan Administration.? They deregulated a lot of things, and the economy grew far more rapidly.? We could do the same now, starting with labor and healthcare.

My friend may do fine, but the things that “protected” him at his last job now hinder him in seeking another job.? Better to eliminate the protections, and let people compete based on skill and assiduousness.

Part Two

Then I was a judge in a financial analysis competition at a local college.? The analysis involved a stock that faced a large investment decision, larger than the current enterprise value of the junk-rated company.? Should the hedge fund buy, sell short, or do nothing with the stock?? The simple part of the case study was working through the intricacies of the discounted cash flow model, together with changes to the assumptions about cash flows and the weighted average cost of capital.

What I found interesting was the lack of attention to:

  • Details of the case study — did you even read it?
  • Common sense — we are sorry, but a stock can’t lose 113%.? Perhaps you would like to tell us to short the bonds?
  • Limitations of complex techniques in finance.? Yes, there’s many nifty formulas available to you, but do you understand what they really mean, and what limitations they imply?? When are they not valid?
  • What markets can and can’t do.? No, you can’t do an public issuance of junk debt at the level of current debt.? You can’t do an issuance longer than ten years.? You can’t do one that is really big without changing market pricing (and the answers from the case study had this wrong as well).? Same applies to large secondary IPOs for equity.

Now, I know these are students.? They can’t know what an experienced market professional does.? To their credit, they dug up many bits of useful data that the case study did not contemplate.? But the case study itself should have noted these things, and to that degree I fault Darden for writing up a subpar case study.

The main thing I would say again to the students is to ignore the academic models with their false certainty, and try to understand the qualitative aspects of the business, out of which the quantitative modeling will grow.

When we were done, each of the judges gave comments to the students.? I started off with, “Sorry for being such a hard-nose.”? I got a decent laugh from the students, and then explained to them what I have said to you.

Part Three

That evening I went to a talk by CareFirst on the PPACA/Obamacare.? It was a genuinely useful 20-minute presentation, with one annoying thing: all of the pictures in the slide deck were of healthy smiling people.? If you are healthy, you will pay more, unless you are really poor.? A realistic presentation would have had people that are stoic, sad, or crying, if they are healthy and not poor.

The best part of what CareFirst gave me was premium rates for PPACA.? The lowest level plan would increase my premiums by 50%, and would increase the areas in which I would have to pay.? More expensive in every way.

It is only an affordable care act to those who were previously uninsurable; to those who were insurable it is a tax on your health and income.? In 2016, we will rip it out by its roots, and have people pay for healthcare directly, with no tax deduction for employer-provided healthcare.? That will reduce healthcare spending, and shrink healthcare to a more reasonable part of the economy.

If you want healthcare to be affordable, get the government out of it in entire.

Part Four

Dr. Kathryn Crecelius spoke to the Baltimore CFA Society on Thursday.? She is the Chief Investment Officer of my alma mater, The Johns Hopkins University.? She talked to us about endowment investing.? Very common sense stuff, very well said, and much like you would hear from me.? I found myself nodding through the whole talk.? It was all very much like my last piece on endowment investing.? I learned a lot, which makes me happy, because I always like to learn.

My travels are done for a while.? I like that too, because being home is a happy place.

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

US Politics & Policy

 

  • How the Tea Party Will Die?http://t.co/EgEnMQVsZB?Gets 1thing right: gerrymandering is behind much of our gridlock $$ http://t.co/rOugB104TN?Oct 18, 2013
  • Even When the GOP Loses, It Wins?http://t.co/6CLe41CJDp?New baseline favors deeper cuts as we may go through sequestration again $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • The Tea Party and the GOP Crackup?http://t.co/a3wLOJ7raO?t-party represents Jacksonian America: angry & in full revolt against new elite $$?Oct 17, 2013
  • How Delayed Inflation Data Mess With Social Security and More?http://t.co/d8BKFRd1g3?US Treasury will have 2 estimate best they can $$?Oct 16, 2013
  • Though it might b better if the govt weren’t calculating the data; gives them too much power to fiddle w/the #s. But no one is neutral $$?Oct 16, 2013
  • McConnell?s Favored Dam Project Included in Debt Deal?http://t.co/8d9jraD29v?Pork is not dead in DC, whether GOP or Democrats $$ #shame?Oct 18, 2013
  • Crop-Insurance Cuts Test Farm Power as Lobbies Push Back?http://t.co/p59uqsRgDX?If can’t be cut when Ag does well, then nothing can b cut $$?Oct 16, 2013
  • Factional conflicts have the power to destroy empires – and republics?http://t.co/TeuFlo7tsW?Reminds me of Europe in 1840s: too much debt $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Reformers hail limit on US crop insurance subsidies?http://t.co/EEn5n9jOYX?Let’s c if it actually gets passed; Ag subsidies tough 2 kill $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • EPA?s McCarthy Says No Decision Made on Renewable Mandate?http://t.co/wi7kzgGl0L?Believe no rumor until it is officially denied $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • A Slowdown on the Road to Recovery?http://t.co/3Pd6dDeVgL?Decaying Bridges, Highways Raise Costs for Truckers, Manufacturers $$ $SPY $TLT?Oct 14, 2013
  • Fiscal negotiations sputter as deadline looms?http://t.co/h73IOeaS36?Obama could end this here by tossing the GOP a bone 2 avoid MAD $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • America?s default on its debt is inevitable?http://t.co/jLSqxj42gG?America has defaulted 3 times already. No way we can fund entitlements $$?Oct 13, 2013
  • Republicans Need a Graceful Exit Strategy, Now?http://t.co/9hjoD6L0hV?@asymmetricinfo explains y the GOP should cut their losses here $$?Oct 12, 2013
  • Is US Political Bubble About to Burst??http://t.co/bipVe5brA0?If there is no permanent default, no, b/c the world needs flexibility of US $$?Oct 12, 2013
  • How to Handle a Debt Default. You Know. Just in Case.?http://t.co/m3j1wilU7R?In a longwinded way comes 2 correct answer: no good strategy $$?Oct 12, 2013
  • 10 ‘Poorest’ Members of Congress Owe Big?http://t.co/cmMpRI2rNR?The same list with a little more data to flesh it out $$?Oct 12, 2013
  • The 10 least wealthy members of Congress, from Roll Call?http://t.co/pO7HBfAlkh?They r not just least wealthy; they r broke 8 Ds, 2 Rs $$?Oct 12, 2013

PPACA / Obamacare

 

  • Health Website Woes Widen as Insurers Get Wrong Data?http://t.co/kNIQrXoDVK?4 something so critical, the healthcare website has failed $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • Another reason y PPACA is a sham; resources don’t appear from nowhere; low cost plans don’t chg the underlying cost of services $$ $SPY $TLT?Oct 16, 2013
  • Patients Pay Before Seeing Doctor as Deductibles Spread?http://t.co/SGly5lDxX7?Big: as deductibles rise, so does prepayment, b/c bad debt $$?Oct 16, 2013
  • Obamacare Needs a Drop-Dead Date?http://t.co/Qe4OORe5AV?@asymmetricinfo ably argues if exchanges aren’t functioning by 11/1, delay PPACA $$?Oct 16, 2013
  • Petco, Applebee’s employees join growing list on private exchanges?http://t.co/00tiYWUrPz?If this works, maybe can replace govt exchanges $$?Oct 16, 2013
  • Obamacare marketplace could get partial rebuild?http://t.co/cwjqbEakyT?If ppl have a hard time signing up, they will have to fix or delay $$?Oct 14, 2013

 

Rest of the World

?

  • Time to take bets on Frexit and the French franc??http://t.co/McwX1vZNvG! Weird: Marine Le Pen’s Front National most popular French party $$?Oct 16, 2013
  • China CPI Speeds Up in September, Mainly on Food Prices?http://t.co/blyIxmplSq?Woe betide when Chinese Inflation starts running hot $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Merkel Faces Decision on Coalition Partner?http://t.co/0BqUYzoiV6?Grand coalition coming, may have impact on German Constitution $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • The Long, Slow Process of IKEA Design?http://t.co/O6FWUi8RHh?Company’s Commitment to Shaving Costs Makes Designing a Kitchen a 5-Yr Task $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Japan May Hire Firms to Manage Foreign Reserves?http://t.co/EWOzlEKp1d?A small experiment where they take illiquidity & credit risk $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Malaysia Rules Catholic Paper Can’t Use ‘Allah’?http://t.co/OLNJiLId6q?Go back to the original, and use “Elohim,” not the Arabic version $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • French Fume Over Speed Traps That Cut Hollande Budget Gap?http://t.co/solddgufg3?An irritating way 2 tax people, would try 2 avoid that $$?Oct 14, 2013

?

?

Berkshire Hathaway

?

  • Buffett?s Son Calls Junk Bonds Model for Charities?http://t.co/QF89ou2F0S?Howard Buffett wants charities 2try hard projects, risk failure $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • Buffett Adds Stocks in Pension Handoff to Lieutenants?http://t.co/zdgnFteYp3?Long duration, higher cost float 4 $BRK.B 2 invest $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • Buffett Defends Dimon, Says Regulators Take Ton of Flesh?http://t.co/Ax3YjbANui?Difficult to pin down liability w/large complex firms $$?Oct 16, 2013
  • As a result, there is the bias toward fines, a little criminal prosecution. Fines should go to those harmed, rather than govt $$ $JPM $BRK.B?Oct 16, 2013
  • Tracy Britt Cool on Management Lessons From Warren Buffett?http://t.co/7s5QP3I9Pw?Buffett gives his managers freedom & flexibility $$ $BRK.B?Oct 16, 2013
  • Buffett Turns to Deputies to Help Find Successors for Unit CEOs?http://t.co/YLt3NquVbM?Berkshire is a complex company; requires much mgmt $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Warren Buffett’s Lieutenants at Berkshire Hathaway?http://t.co/nclA8Vqsep?Possible Buffett replacement Matthew Rose, CEO of BNSF $$ $BRK.B?Oct 14, 2013
  • CEOs to Face Berkshire-Loyalty Test?http://t.co/peoPfaJ2Hb?How will $BRK.B retain managers after there is no Warren Buffett 2 disappoint? $$?Oct 14, 2013

 

Companies & Industries

 

  • Can Coke and Pepsi Overcome Shrinking Juice Demand??http://t.co/6JzH27NKSQ?Far better to have fruit & get the fiber, not just the sugar $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • A SWAG Surprise in the $19 Billion Chevron Case?http://t.co/PUrxEMlmvp?Defense atty surprised when witness says the damage # was made-up $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • Ursula Burns: ‘Chill out a little bit’?http://t.co/j80WyoKUQq?Pick the places where u want 2b great, focus energies there & then go do it $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • Hollywood Steps Up Security to Keep Scripts Secret?http://t.co/We49CbLssh?Interesting: tech & methods Hollywood uses 2 protect scripts $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • ‘Clean Coal’ Costs Are on Display at Mississippi Plant?http://t.co/omVqqflAl7?Clean coal is likely a pipe dream 4 coal producers $$?Oct 14, 2013

 

Finance

 

  • Dimon Said to Have Given Up Role at Bank Unit on OCC Request?http://t.co/KC09IBMymM?He stepped down, but not w/o the OCC giving a push $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • Stockbroker Requests to Scrub Complaints Are Often Granted?http://t.co/Hpiir2YBtg?Bad stuff; makes u want to beef up the SEC & end FINRA $$?Oct 17, 2013
  • NY Fed Fired Examiner Who Took on Goldman?http://t.co/z2CBD8DmLw?$GS $$ $SPY She analyzed conflict of interest rules & found them lacking.?Oct 16, 2013
  • Simon Says: ?Toughen Up??http://t.co/yDmroZcNDz?Simon Business School attempts to get students ready 4 the hard aspects of business $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Big Banks Can Be Dismantled, Say US & UK Regulators?http://t.co/i0KCOMIl4d?I will believe it when I see it. Regulators r2 optimistic $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Debt moves the world?http://t.co/knHet0TrjN?This article moves the ball forward; overall debt levels should help decide monetary policy $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Beyond Earnings: A Simple Method 2Pick a Winning Stock?http://t.co/N2AlhUTX2K?”Quality” or gross return on assets, measures moat strength $$?Oct 12, 2013
  • When Analysts Sober Up?http://t.co/yPt8kJO8gr?Sell side analysts tend 2b very optimistic & revise as reality intrudes. CFOs don’t mind $$?Oct 12, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Houston Texans Running Back Arian Foster Is Going Public?http://t.co/GG11tRFIbe?Step right up, buy a share of a football player’s pay $$ #no?Oct 18, 2013
  • How I Learned to Haggle Over Prices?http://t.co/LMgLRP1GQs?Never thought I would b good at haggling until I traded corporate bonds $$?Oct 17, 2013
  • Harrisburg?s Parking Bond Sale Avoids Chicago Regret?http://t.co/sT0dSsUmhS?Key is 2align incentives; Harrisburg/investors both make $$ same?Oct 16, 2013
  • Axel Merk: In our assessment, a central bank pursing an employment target… has given up its independence?http://t.co/tp4MDrixjm?$$ $TLT?Oct 16, 2013
  • Regional Fed Bosses Struggle With Communication Issue?http://t.co/aOZ2CQ2iGt?Talk is cheap 4 the Fed; the expenses get charged to us $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • BuzzFeed’s Brazen, Nutty, Growth Plan?http://t.co/YMYFpymfEI?Translation by foreign-language speakers learning English using Duolingo $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Google Is Going to Include Your Face in Its New Ads?http://t.co/MbV0XgLphb?U did not know that u have signed up 2b an ad pitchman w/G+ $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • The Cheap Way to Watch Every NFL, NBA, NHL Game Online?http://t.co/hsrxfC4XDm?The genie is out of the bottle, will b hard 2get it back in $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Bit by Bit, Virtual Reality Heads for the Holodeck?http://t.co/U1l99HThFa?Think the technology will get bogged down on multiple players $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • ‘Jumping Genes’ Bring Unexpected Twists 2 DNA?http://t.co/0IXG7BvBlO?1 shouldn’t b overly impressed w/idea of strict genetic heritability $$?Oct 12, 2013
  • Wire Fraud Is on the Rise?http://t.co/dlDn7nBMHK?Double check transfer requests; you could be on the hook for any losses $$?Oct 12, 2013

 

The Swedish Central Bank Prize

 

  • If you have 2shorten it further, call it The SCB Prize. But it is not a Nobel Prize; none of the economists winning it deserve the honor $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • The official name is The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. Call it the Swedish Central Bank Prize. $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Note2journalists: there is no Economics Nobel Prize . Nobel knew economics was not a science. We should agree given failures of ec theory $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Fama, Shiller, Hansen Win 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics?http://t.co/R5Vg7XM67P?Can anyone explain why Hansen shared the SCB prize? $$?Oct 14, 2013

 

?

Wrong

  • Unreliable research: Trouble at the lab?http://t.co/hXsQYejcTR?The main problem is that scientists do not understand statistics $$?Oct 19, 2013
  • Also, they r incented to find positive results, when there may be none, & they are not neutral observers, sometimes they push an agenda $$?Oct 19, 2013
  • Wrong: Fed Official Says Big Banks Should Be Required to Hold Long-Term Debt?http://t.co/9KVgFf66NW?Job is 2 protect subs not holdcos $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • Wrong: Hey China, Stop Laughing at the US?http://t.co/t9dulVuJ6z?W/any fair rendering, China’s economic &political problems > those of US $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • Wrong: Al Gore: ?Carbon Bubble? Is Going to Burst ? Avoid Oil Stocks?http://t.co/ShdX90aLeD?The “carbon bubble” is between his ears $$?Oct 18, 2013
  • Difficult to say: Investors Seek Bargains in Battered Munis?http://t.co/LoBJgds82u?2 many major weak credits & 2 many weak holders $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Tenuous: US Corporate Profit Growth Slows as Shutdown Risks Rise?http://t.co/EPZedodSTn?Link more tenuous as economy was slowing already $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Bad HL: Default Doubters Repudiated by Republican Economists?http://t.co/GClDYBVnLF?Comments of GOP economists r more nuanced than that $$?Oct 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Don’t Shoot the Messaging?http://t.co/prnAskf4ZB?Fed puts 2much effort into fwd guidance, should not b surprised @ mkt reactions $$?Oct 12, 2013

 

Replies, Retweets & Comments

  • @marcmakingsense A competitive market in data. Let the best data win. Democracy ain’t what it used 2b w/gerrymandering, thus current fight?Oct 16, 2013
  • @JPDesloges not my article, but the Economist’s. Do what you like.?Oct 16, 2013
  • @pkedrosky I wouldn’t have said it that way, but you are correct.?Oct 15, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: Good point. The successor will have 2go2 great pains to prove he will keep the old hands …?http://t.co/ky8jWaL9n3?Oct 14, 2013
  • RT @EpicureanDeal: Want cleaner banking? Pay litigation, settlement, and penalty costs directly out of the employee bonus pool. $JPM?Oct 13, 2013

 

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