Category: Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Currency Wars

 

  • Battling the unknowns of currency devaluation | Reuters http://t.co/3kiN75eT A tough game to play, particularly w/changed policy in Japan $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • This is what a currency war looks like http://t.co/ibWgIZTg Japan is leading the #currencywar by no longer sterilizing monetary policy $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • The Dark Side of Japan’s Creating Inflation http://t.co/3O384dKU Risk is interest rates rise and Japan can’t finance itself. #tippingpoint Feb 07, 2013
  • Japan Inc.?s appreciation of the yen?s depreciation http://t.co/zdYFkcYR Japanese stocks rally as their exports get relatively cheaper $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Falling yen set to spark renewed currency wars http://t.co/1QXtUFoA Japan has finally “thrown the hammer down.” No more sterilization $$ Feb 05, 2013

 

LBOs

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  • Dell?s largest outside shareholder thinks it?s worth $10 more a share – Quartz http://t.co/1gr8dTZb Let Southeastern et al bid 4 control $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • The Three Scariest Letters for Bondholders: L-B-O | Fox Business http://t.co/wEEHVJUR Note: junk bonds r protected from this, not invt grade Feb 09, 2013
  • New Worry for Bondholders: LBOs http://t.co/KumxFjws Company is cheap & has good Bal Sheet, it could LBO, harming current bondholders $$ Feb 04, 2013

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Pensions

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  • Danger Seen in Pension Fund Cuts on Abe Inflation http://t.co/wDu6fWjE Guess what? Inflation can harm pensioners. Sad 4 them. $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Pension Funds Cut Back On Commodity Indexes http://t.co/ZSvFgIoG Hoarding not a panacea, also, can get clipped on the roll $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • The Asset Mix (Stocks-Bonds) will make the Difference – 2 many Bonds Mr Abe? http://t.co/AOHm6p5X On pension asset allocation globally $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Baby Boomers Sicker Than Parents? Generation, Study Finds http://t.co/Xy7VIs0n Will live longer too; big reason to reshape Medicare $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Americans Rip Up Retirement Plans http://t.co/s5UARuld Nearly 2/3rds of Those Between 45 & 60 Plan Delays, Steep Rise From 2 Yrs Ago $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Low Rates Force Companies to Pour Cash Into Pensions http://t.co/32JNXekQ Low long rates push pension liabilities higher, req $$ payment Feb 04, 2013

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High Yield

 

  • US High Yield Bonds: HYG On the support http://t.co/Gcj35TAJ In order 4 HY 2 rally from here, need dumb buyers 2 apply leverage $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Fed?s Stein: Signs of Overheating in Credit Markets http://t.co/TAT7QcwB Junk yields less than in June 2007. Replace CDO bid w/Fed $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Two Things about High-Yield Bonds Investors Must Understand Today http://t.co/w3n4IODi Low yields & spread relatives & high $$ prices Feb 07, 2013
  • A Mad Rush Could Be Coming In The Corporate Credit Markets http://t.co/KFGkM3gQ Possible, but it depends on how levered investors are $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • No, there probably isn?t a bond bubble http://t.co/92p5SJBz Misses key question: how much debt is being issued to acquire other debts? $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • US Higher Yield Bonds: A Corrective Update http://t.co/RITd5UGl Corrections may be happening w/ both credit & high-quality long-duration $$ Feb 04, 2013

 

 

S&P Lawsuit

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  • State Lawsuits Could Add to S&P Exposure http://t.co/oQSwfYFR Attorneys General for states become profit centers; opportunistic thieves Feb 07, 2013
  • Wrong: Levitt Says McGraw-Hill ?Foolish? to Not Settle S&P Lawsuit http://t.co/dEL4g1ja There’s a good chance that S&P will win, y give up Feb 07, 2013
  • S&P Lawsuit Undermined by SEC Rules That Impede Competition http://t.co/GCUE01zz Will not be simple for the govt to win its case $$ #FTL Feb 07, 2013
  • S&P Lawsuit Portrays CDO Sellers as Duped Victims http://t.co/rAI69G1G Stretching truth; CDO sellers knew credit better than agencies $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • S&P feels Justice’s lash, but can law ever conquer greed? http://t.co/SVDZVZtG Diffcult 2 single out people/firms 2 prosecute in big crisis Feb 05, 2013

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Companies

 

  • Top NY court throws Travelers asbestos award into question http://t.co/GAujEmCH Case started in 1948, when USF&G insured Western Asbestos Feb 08, 2013
  • Buffett?s Son Says He?s Prepared Whole Life for Berkshire Role http://t.co/xYWVlMu8 As Chairman, Howard will be “cultural guardian.” $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • San Francisco Gasoline Rises as Tesoro Seen Cutting Rates http://t.co/4Rmvbcz1 It’s tough when state governments discourage refineries $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Bond insurers aren’t the only winners in Rakoff’s Flagstar ruling http://t.co/6A2IICLD All can rely on reps & warranties of mtge origin8rs Feb 07, 2013
  • Berkshire-Insured Muni Sees Good Demand http://t.co/yKX1lGPy Nothing amazing; some $BRK.B businesses r part of the development borrowing Feb 07, 2013
  • Life Insurer CFOs Say Their Financial Models Fall Short: Survey http://t.co/zJ3f2DJc Surprising, another reason 2b bearish on life ins Feb 07, 2013
  • BlackRock Cautious as Sales End Dollar Bond Rally: China Credit http://t.co/4LZDSoMf Questions over credit quality, maybe 2 much supply $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • Herbalife Drops After Report of Law-Enforcement Probe http://t.co/zC0a9GGv $HLF rises today. $$ Worries over being named “pyramid scheme” Feb 04, 2013
  • Was the AIG Rescue Legal? http://t.co/LUTVHQa9 Of course not. Gov’t should not play favorites; emergencies b a DIP lender of last resort Feb 02, 2013

 

US Politics & Policy

 

  • House Speaker: Washington Has to Address Spending http://t.co/lZcQcinD Yes it does, but will the Senate and President ratify that? $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Party Eyes ‘Red-State Model’ to Drive Republican Revival http://t.co/qrlp6Zn5 First balance budget on an accrual basis; no state does $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • House Leaders Weigh US Spending Bill Below $1T http://t.co/0nBcoURd Good luck w/Senate & President on that, you will need it $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Study Says States Lose Billions in Offshore Tax Avoidance http://t.co/qTnlUpTX Just an effect of federal tax policy, which needs change $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • The Fed?s Worst Fear http://t.co/nanNt52c Losing control of long interest rates; the bond market will eventually trump the Fed $$ Feb 04, 2013

 

Market Impact

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  • Americans Are Tapping Into Home Equity Again http://t.co/gLLrlDEx Does this mean a return to the reckless equity withdrawals? Likely not $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Banks Should Defer Bonuses for Up to 10 Years, Jenkins Says http://t.co/udabGhNT Better that banks become partnerships; creates caution Feb 08, 2013
  • Insiders now aggressively bearish http://t.co/vWogX2LF Last Fri: sell-to-buy ratio for NYSE-listed shares listed stood at 9.20-to-1 $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • SP500 Complacent Divergence – Risk Factors http://t.co/CPqaNYY4 Decelerating earnings growth threatens valuations. Econ surprises falling 2 Feb 08, 2013
  • Interdealer Brokers Emerge as Key Enablers in Libor Scandal http://t.co/bTgMtUOa & http://t.co/yBo7oxKJ Them & Rain Man Tom Hayes $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Schwab Unveils Game-Changing Commission-Free ETF Platform http://t.co/yqCaunnJ Part of the ETF’s fees go to $SCHW . No free lunch here $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • H-P Aside, Corporate Splits Are Wholly Worth Investors? While http://t.co/e9dptR0E Managements gain new focus; Behemoths lack true mgmt $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • U.S. to Offer Floating-Rate Notes Within a Year http://t.co/eXCUd3Ni Money-market funds take heart; yield (w/spread duration risk!) $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Small lenders ride US mortgage wave as big banks cut back http://t.co/KbACkvJk Interesting 2c little independent mortgage brokers return $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • America’s Baby Bust http://t.co/CaWPjZVU Heard on Radio C-SPAN yd http://t.co/Ow86Jsfs ?Economies don’t work well when popul shrinks $$ Feb 02, 2013

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Rest of the World

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  • Mind the Liquidity Gap – Credit Gap http://t.co/m2xTMEIs 3 factors: global monetary policy, global credit supply & global credit demand $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • German Hope French Despair and EU Rescue: PMIs http://t.co/qioLvblN Eurozone PMIs r rising, but economies r still contracting $$ #France Feb 07, 2013
  • Basel Seen Rotten in Denmark as Banks Bypassed http://t.co/HX9a6vOI Denmark has many covered mtge bonds; Basel doesn’t care much 4them $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Shades of ’80s for Japan’s Stocks http://t.co/68rhfLmX What, Japanese stocks can go up after the demographic dividend has faded? Feb 07, 2013
  • Desperate Greeks scuffle at free food handout http://t.co/XpQUEBMM Total desperation. Democracy started there, and it may end there too $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Canadians back2borrowing: avg consumer debt hits new hi http://t.co/wtSpy1pB overall debt low | cred: evergreen http://t.co/ndpBH0Ch Feb 07, 2013
  • Last tweet derives from this article http://t.co/wjSwNztf I believe in freedom, and small biz capitalism, with equality 4 all. $$ Feb 06, 2013
  • We need Obama/Hollande 2create economic barriers average people can’t surmount, so the clever rich can get richer. Cynical, but true $$ Feb 06, 2013
  • ECB Executive Board Member Asmussen: ‘German Interest Rates Will Rise Again’ http://t.co/oIJZtFtK Thinks *real* interest rates will rise $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Top Iranians Trade Barbs in Rare Public Feud http://t.co/W1uR6M1p Corruption is endemic to Iran; rare 4 the mafiosi 2 fink on each other Feb 05, 2013

 

Other

 

  • An Insider’s Guide to Counterfeiting Wine – Businessweek http://t.co/SoVp0OrF 3 ways to counterfeit expensive wines & how to avoid them $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Most Australian Wine Exports Ship in Giant Plastic Bladders http://t.co/jL1S9KLF ?We don?t ship glass around the world, we ship wine.? $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Super Bowl Blackout Caused by Faulty Relay, Entergy Says http://t.co/GKd5619I That was what I guessed; weak spot in many power grids $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Asteroid to Traverse Earth?s Satellite Zone, NASA Says http://t.co/ZnpmCxXD Interesting we only get one week’s notice on the near miss $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • What Abraham Lincoln Liked About Richard III http://t.co/oAp8PQjg Lincoln was Shakespeare buff; 1 controversial man’s thoughts on another Feb 08, 2013
  • Lease Surprise in Stuyvesant Town http://t.co/O7DQsILq “clause that allows landlord to increase the rent in the middle of the lease” $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Nine Questions for Peter Levine, Andreessen Horowitz?s Enterprise Dude http://t.co/yiubWsqj How SDN commoditizes much special hardware $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • On Pins and Needles: Stylist Turns Ancient Hairdo Debate on Its Head http://t.co/RgrZqc80 Kinda of a quirky story, but interesting $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • ‘They Owe It to Me’: FBI Identifies Top Email Phrases Used by Fraudsters – Compliance Week http://t.co/9FtlTkEH Set up filters, compliance Feb 06, 2013
  • Legacy of Benjamin Graham: http://t.co/GztBNt53 via @youtube In last minute, BG anticipates the Efficient Markets Hypothesis years ahead $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Legacy of Benjamin Graham: http://t.co/GztBNt53 via @youtube Fascinating video w/Buffett, Kahn (2), Schloss, & other students of his $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • US Construction Jobs – A very Constructive Story http://t.co/Gqy8YIU0 Construction jobs coming back, looks like a dead cat bounce $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • Sending electronic money to friends catching on http://t.co/zRBh8tkT Creating next great avenue 4 money laundering; cheap & convenient $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • Hitler Awakes in 2011 Berlin, Becomes YouTube Hero http://t.co/ore3XtWB Hard 4 me 2 believe. Does humor have any limits anymore? Funny $$ Feb 04, 2013

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Replies & Retweets

  • @dpinsen 16x deteriorating free cash flow @ $24/sh. There’s some bluster there. Wouldn’t want to be a bondholder here $DELL $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: Wait, I’m wrong. Didn’t look far enough — they have 8.5% of shares, but 7.5% of votes. Onl… http://t.co/18jIZ94S Feb 08, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: Here: http://t.co/a3SdyNFq http://t.co/4OBGCIp0 Feb 08, 2013
  • ‘ @ampressman Thanks, Aaron. Reading it now. http://t.co/aGpdRr8R Good stuff. SE recently bought more http://t.co/UGh12nkp $$ $DELL Feb 08, 2013 ?(This tweet was wrong, SE has been a seller of $DELL shares, and even recently?)
  • Owns 7.5%, what could they b thinking? $$ RT @BloombergNews: BREAKING: Dell holder Southeastern Asset plans ‘All Options’ to stop deal Feb 08, 2013
  • Worth the read RT @cate_long: Is the U.S. growing, or just issuing debt? – #MuniLand http://t.co/KLB1838k Feb 08, 2013
  • Seems reasonable to me $$ RT @TFMkts: @AlephBlog the high yield market is on cusp of some stop losses getting triggered Feb 08, 2013
  • @GaelicTorus Did not know that, thanks Feb 08, 2013
  • Small caps +7% http://t.co/ewRvffTb $$ RT @credittrader: Gentle Reminder Japan Nikkei 225 +0.75% YTD in USD http://t.co/cxxhjMoG Feb 07, 2013
  • @anatadmati Twitter is too small for this. Read: http://t.co/JDnLfhJ5 & http://t.co/yo7C05d0 Biggest problem isn’t capital, but liquidity $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • @Nonrelatedsense @credittrader Thanks, missed that Feb 07, 2013
  • @BlandDexter In a word, yes. Feb 07, 2013
  • @The_Analyst What floors me are professional investors that don’t read the prospectus the first time they analyze a new type of investment. Feb 07, 2013
  • @SapienQuis A lot of investment banks got pinned w/crud they could not sell whether due to secondary trading or origination Feb 07, 2013
  • @The_Analyst Yes, they did have staff. If u r a professional firm, you must independent vet out credit quality; ignore rating read writeup Feb 07, 2013
  • Well done! RT @jasonzweigwsj: 2 things about high-yield bonds investors should understand today, from @DavidSchawel http://t.co/EYo8KSEQ $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • @anatadmati A better idea would be double liability, where mgmt & directors lose their capital before shareholders do. Change incentives Feb 07, 2013
  • @anatadmati At current margins, banks could not earn their cost of capital w/30% E/A. Banks & credit would shrink a lot -> crisis Feb 07, 2013
  • @DavidSchawel Where will it be? Feb 06, 2013
  • Bondholders will get badly hurt $$ http://t.co/i7Fxa10p RT @DougKass: HPQ mulling a break up. $HPQ Feb 05, 2013
  • It’s starting $$ RT @LisaCNBC: The Japanese are going to overdo it and create an inflation problem. #Yen will spike in 2013. @PeterSchiff Feb 05, 2013
  • @TFMkts People made absurd predictions about capital mkts off of the experience 1982-2000, culmination ing tech bubble / lost decade $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Mersenne Primes RT @motokorich: Largest Prime Number Discovered, and it’s 17,425,170 digits long. http://t.co/U8GzYFj1 via @sciam Feb 05, 2013
  • @TFMkts Would be interesting 2c a firm try that. The wind seems to still b blowing the wrong way there, w/discount rates so low. Feb 05, 2013
  • He was/is a bright guy $$ RT @munilass: Picking on S&P just isn’t as much fun without @EconOfContempt around. Feb 05, 2013
  • RT @LaurenLaCapra: “big exchanges therefore stand to gain tremendously from even a relatively small shift twd futures & away from sw … Feb 05, 2013
  • “I only want to add one thing: its not what pundits say that matters, it is what people rely on economically… http://t.co/zAPlxIHU $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • RT @moorehn: Pffft. MT @nycjim: Washington Post says it, too, was victim of hacking attack that appeared to originate in China. http://t … Feb 03, 2013
  • Good marketing kills bad ideas, people & products $$ RT @MattVATech: Marketing is never a substitute for substance. Feb 03, 2013
  • “Only if you think that by waiting a little while you might have higher yields to invest at. Can’t?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Vt16DKeU $$ Feb 02, 2013
  • “Hi, KD… my bond mandate is unconstrained, so I just aim for total returns. Right now I am pretty?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/4x41D4D2 Feb 02, 2013

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FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 77 retweets received, 4 new listings, 86 new followers, 81 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Feb 07, 2013

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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

  • God gave proverbs to the Jews; Epigrams were of the Romans. Now we do the same through tweets, why do I sense bad omens? #badpoetry Feb 02, 2013

 

Credit

 

  • One of Warren Buffett’s Greatest Trades http://t.co/wnU2g1z4 Comparing Buffett winding up his partnership to lack of distressed opps now $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Be Very Afraid When Fear Disappears From Markets http://t.co/t8wKalsQ Low implied vols, low yields, High Q-ratio & CAPE10 $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • How a $91 million loan on the Marlins ballpark will cost Miami-Dade $1.2B http://t.co/F2u2rZbP Poway-style debt in Florida $$ cc @munilass Jan 31, 2013
  • Big, Rich, and Wobbly: Wall Street Banks Are Still Sicker Than You Think http://t.co/irKmQqLy Mohamed A. El-Erian explains the problems $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • In US Debt We Trust- The Transfer from Private to Public Debt http://t.co/2nq1pGCn Total debt hasn’t declined much from peak, gov debt up $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Chavez?s 681% Returns Mean Socialism Buoys Goldman http://t.co/IYPD6fEJ Give Chavez credit, at least his country paid what they owed $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • 4 Reasons the Junk Bond Rally Will Continue in 2013 http://t.co/r7SF05NJ Check my comments. I like this site, but disagree w/the thesis $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Pimco to DoubleLine Leveraging as Yields Retreat http://t.co/LBUsmfQ6 Here comes leverage; PIMCO and Doubleline gear up to get returns $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • US Not So High Yield Bonds : “It’s Starting To Feel A Lot Like 2007” http://t.co/PZ0dOyzC More like 2005-6, we need more leverage 4 2007 $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • The US High-Yield Corporate Bond Conundrum http://t.co/w0wlsn7s & this leads to buybacks & M&A. It all depends on how aggressive it gets $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Investors Pivot Back to Banks http://t.co/ixvSSGf8 Bank bonds are likely safe, the stocks r another matter $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Too Soon to Celebrate for Europe’s Banks http://t.co/cKT6OXli Let them deal with the mountains of bad debt & restructure them $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Can anyone tell me why HY loan defaults are up, while HY bond defaults are down? http://t.co/gxfVA5za Usually they move in tandem $$ Jan 29, 2013
  • And very few LP CEFs at discounts, which is also true for HY bond CEFs. Preferred funds look a little more promising, but still pricey $$ Jan 29, 2013
  • Looking at bank floating rate closed end funds, a few r at high prems 2 NAV, such that if u bot the trust 2 liquidate would get 0% return $$ Jan 29, 2013

 

Companies

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  • Newell Rubbermaid Goes After $127B Health Market http://t.co/lcarSSmS Interesting 2c consumer prods comps go after the healthcare mkt $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Chevron Realigns Its Gas and Midstream Organization http://t.co/u1WoIl2Y Sort of thing u do, prior to splitting co into 2 | FD: + $CVX $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Good 4 refiners $$ http://t.co/q3lVpoI5 US crude oil inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year Jan 31, 2013
  • Container Shipping Faces Merger Urge as Money Dries Up http://t.co/7Kur08t6 Capital-intensive biz is tough when financing not plentiful $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Oh, Full disclosure two tweets ago, I am long Valero, $VLO Jan 30, 2013
  • $ACE ?s Greenberg Asks ?Why R We Doing Guidance?? http://t.co/dKtvopDX Evan has impressed me after leaving $AIG | Chip off the ol block $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Valero Looking at Rail, Barges to Ship Canadian Crude to Gulf http://t.co/diLQGBZC Cheap oil in middle of N. America wants2get2the Gulf $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Singer Chases Icahn With Stake in Cheapest Oil Company Hess http://t.co/Hk4ynp6q Worth reading 2 understand activist investors $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Fund Outflows? Blame the ‘Cliff’ http://t.co/QOq13Jn8 $TROW is a good firm. If anyone should not get fund outflows, they would b one $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Fannie To Allow Walkaways by On-Time Borrowers http://t.co/Nnx00VfR & so taxpayers will pick up the losses for walkaways on FNMA mtges $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Software Firms Find Tax Advantages http://t.co/5G2QXmmD A good transfer-pricing accountant is worth his weight in gold. $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Apple Reverse Convertibles: How Brokerage Firms Pervert Everything http://t.co/4ugTpgTe Don’t buy structured notes. Listen2 @reformedbroker Jan 29, 2013
  • How Apple’s Fall Bit Bondholders, Too http://t.co/60fmfhle Structured notes: Wall St. gives u a small increase in yield & lots more risk $$ Jan 27, 2013

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Central Banking

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  • Japan’s lessons for America’s budget warriors http://t.co/ftUKEJPa Think this might be the start of unsterilized monetary policy globally $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • What finally convinced me to sell my long bonds 30 bps lower than now was market’s reaction to the Fed in December. http://t.co/vQONtgBC $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • The Fed?s Actions Are Counterproductive http://t.co/THDwyijc If printing $$ or issuing credit could bring prosperity, it would be here now Jan 31, 2013
  • 2 early to celebrate ECB’s balance sheet reduction http://t.co/srQiQJ4Q @soberlook right again: off-Bal Sheet gtees dwarf BS improvement $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Fed Policy Is a Drag on the Economy http://t.co/T3Wx0ezh I have argued the same here: http://t.co/l7MyjNLM John Taylor 4 Fed Chairman $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Anyone else notice that all FOMC meetings are now 2 days long? Gives them more time to come up with creative errors in monetary policy $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • The Ghosts of 1994 http://t.co/Hdf2UFLi 2 things are different now: Fed was hawkish in ’94, few expected prepays 2 decrease so much then $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • What Happened To Markets The Last 15 Times The Fed Tightened… http://t.co/zq4TRGxg Long article, but instructive on tightenings $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • With Each Central Bank Move, Nations Are Impoverished More http://t.co/70lBSDeQ Combined actions of Central banks create global infation $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • USD-JPY: Short Term Reversal? – Hara-kiri http://t.co/K9N3Viom Japan leads the race to the bottom. Will they stop sterilizing asset buys? $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • There are two things lacking that were present in 1994: a hawkish Fed, and expectations that RMBS prepays… http://t.co/DHekaqIN Jan 29, 2013
  • The Unintended Consequences Of The Greatest Economic Experiment http://t.co/0hEH3VS1 The Fed won’t admit it, but it is flying blind $$ Jan 28, 2013

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Rest of the World

 

  • Greek Companies Test Bond Waters as Exit Risks Fade http://t.co/fOgUn41S I guess every dog has its day. Sleep w/dogs, wake up w/fleas $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Best Stock Pickers Trawl Frontier Markets as US Funds Lose http://t.co/yfAKqI7t When mgrs seek unusual venues 4 investing, risk is up $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Deutsche Bank Improved Its Capital Ratio By Changing Risk Measures http://t.co/jWTc73pR Risk mgmt is easy when you can alter standards $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Spain’s crisis strategy under fire as economy buckles again http://t.co/Qeaeotx0 The ECB?s Mario Draghi is ?itching? 2buy Club Med bonds $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Japan?s Government Proposes First Spending Cut in 7 Years http://t.co/DHpOH3II The journey to fiscal sanity begins w/a single cut $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Canadian Mega Housing Bubble http://t.co/GwbpWMGs Quietly, the average Canadian HH has accumulated more debt than US & UK HHs. Who knew? $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Chinese currency 2 loosen exchange rate: business chief http://t.co/q6zNLSGh Easier said than done; is China willing 2 absorb volatility $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Scandal of Italy’s Monte Paschi means questions for Draghi http://t.co/mufcYFkI Had some reg oversight over Monte dei Paschi solvency $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • The Super Bowl, Chicken Wings and the FED – a Risky Mix ? http://t.co/EDCV958k The Fed has no idea what it is doing, the same as in 2007 $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Why We?re at the End of Cheap China http://t.co/kSW2tbWG Argues there is more consumption going on in China, hidden in coprporate perks $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada? http://t.co/GgUfyM74 Interesting 2c France, Sweden, HK, & Singapore on the list $$ Jan 26, 2013

 

Speculation

 

  • Forget the ‘Rotation’, Here’s the Source of the Money Pouring Into Stocks http://t.co/tn4Dxs39 ~$30B of special dividends get reinvested $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • ML Fund Managers Survey – Jan 2013 http://t.co/GR19wML6 Professionals r hedging less equity risk, flexible capital increasingly committed $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Bill Gross: Be very afraid of the markets http://t.co/k7Ouhax3 Favors: Currencies of creditworthy countries, short bonds, gold, HQ debts $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Whan financial institutions start buying gold as an inflation hedge, only 2 possibilities remain: a top in gold prices, or hyperinflation $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • SP500 Earnings Optimisim : But let’s revise them lower! http://t.co/bPXqFSos We should expect actual earnings 2 come in below projections $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Upside Risks http://t.co/AuT58IEC @reformedbroker gives us the bull’s case; I’m agnostic on market direction; think long yields will rise $$ Jan 29, 2013

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Goodwill Is Bad News for US Assets http://t.co/8ctt5UeQ Not all goodwill is bad; if it produces extra cash deserves 2b treated as asset $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • It’s the Stocks You Don’t Own That Matter http://t.co/M3pDaeFl @herbgreenberg talks about new Forensic Accounting ETF $FLAG | Good idea $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Your ETF Owns Too Little Amazon, &Other Index Quirks http://t.co/UOZINiEc Float-weighting underweights ?owner-operators? which do better $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Asset Allocation & Rebalancing: (Still) Competitive Together http://t.co/FrLCygAY Rebalancing global value-weighted index: good strategy $$ Jan 31, 2013

 

US Economics

 

  • US GDP Q4 2012 Weaker with a Strong Mix http://t.co/ZmVlZZ52 In Q3, few talked about the weak mix, but yes, result better than headline # $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Contracts in Fourth Quarter http://t.co/dmKSsHlf After getting upside surprises, shouldn’t we get one down? $$ Jan 30, 2013

 

US Politics

 

  • US government warns of hack threat 2 network gear http://t.co/lZvMgyOe Disable feature known as Universal Plug & Play on your network $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • How President Obama Lost His Shirt to John Boehner http://t.co/VZwfxqiw Interesting argument; not sure it’s correct. Seemed like a tie $$ Jan 28, 2013
  • Women?s Path to Ground Combat Strewn With Obstacles http://t.co/DkVG9UDM Only the strongest ~5% of women will be able 2b in combat $$ Jan 28, 2013
  • Bipartisan Immigration Plan Counters Republican Orthodoxy http://t.co/nL9Q8RFp Has some chance of passing 4 the 1st time in 6 years $$ Jan 28, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Psst…This Is What Your Co-Worker Is Paid http://t.co/3lUOLmT9 I’m not sure this is a good idea. What someone is paid is personal $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Bombarded by Ads, Few Drivers Switch Car Insurer http://t.co/LsyjydyM Average ppl have an agent they trust until they get burned $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Backyard Farming Gets Fancy http://t.co/0FqwgxRr High-End ‘Homesteaders’ Want Pricey, Stylish Tools; The $1,300 Chicken Coop $$ #noway Jan 30, 2013
  • 15-Year-Old Creates Test for Pancreatic Cancer http://t.co/qrRalNtv This fellow beat the child of a friend of mine who came in third $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Derivatives trader: ‘The trouble is, regulators are idiots’ http://t.co/PTJpQe9G In general, true. This is why dumb regulation is better $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Liability Issues Create Potholes on the Road to Driverless Cars http://t.co/VDVux7vV If a driverless car has an accident who pays? $$ Jan 28, 2013

?

Wrong

?

  • Wrong:Piracy and Fraud Propelled the US Industrial Revolution http://t.co/JONyDRPd Doubt that explains more than 3% of American Success $$ Feb 01, 2013
  • Wrong: Alan Blinder:Everything You Think You Know About the Crisis Is Wrong http://t.co/gTVjTm4t TARP a failure; encourages moral hazard $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Wrong: Morgan Stanley Buys Argentine Stocks as YPF Deal Lures BlackRock http://t.co/MdXXq1uu Until expropriation ends, avoid Argentina $$ Jan 31, 2013
  • Wrong: Bitcoin?s Gains May Fuel Central Bank Concerns http://t.co/bXNdgp9c Chart here: http://t.co/Xaz8cxbh Thin speculative market $$ Jan 28, 2013

?

Comments & Retweets

 

  • RT @japhychron: The Real, and Simple, Equation That Killed Wall Street | Guest Blog, Scientific American Blog Network http://t.co/9YDmZu … Feb 02, 2013
  • RT @BankersUmbrella: @AlephBlog …buying on margin at 5y high in NYSE, fund inflows higher than just before techbubble burst, net sales … Feb 01, 2013
  • You can say that again $$ RT @paulnovell: @AlephBlog unless you own an east coast refinery. Mid continent refiners are killing it Jan 31, 2013
  • @GlennBusch I almost moved to Poway to work for the last remaining large life insurer in San Diego; Offer fell through, company failed later Jan 31, 2013
  • @steve13smith So how are you doing at Minyanville & otherwise? Jan 31, 2013
  • @steve13smith Are you my friend from RealMoney days? Good to hear from you. Yes, I signed up on a Wednesday. It’s a useful summary to me. Jan 31, 2013
  • You can say that again RT @credittrader: $SPY vs $VIX – oops – http://t.co/ARvpNfRP Jan 30, 2013
  • Feels like it to me. RT @StockTwits: Has Value Turned a Corner? http://t.co/GQnUMCcw via @eddyelfenbein $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • @RossJaklik I don’t market. People ask me to manage their money. They get a clone of how I invest my own money. If that is not legitimate… Jan 30, 2013
  • @RossJaklik @faithmight @abnormalreturns In order to receive fees for investing OPM, you must pass the regulatory hurdles Jan 30, 2013
  • @RossJaklik @faithmight @abnormalreturns And to manage OPM legitimately, u have to start a firm like $TROW $LM $JNS $BEN $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • @wesbury @cabaum1 I want to get rid of the neoclassical economics monoculture at the Fed, & replace w/Actuaries & Value Investors $$ #dreams Jan 30, 2013
  • @prchovanec Enjoy it, friend. I have 8 kids, 5 adopted. Every age is fun, & has sorrows. Enjoy your kids while u can; they grow up fast $$ Jan 30, 2013
  • Little kids r so cute $$ RT @prchovanec: 3-year-old son William on new twin baby sisters: “Can they talk? What did they say?” Jan 30, 2013
  • Thanks, have ~3 more to go $$ RT @BarbarianCap: Great “101-level” series in the last few days on insurance investing over on @AlephBlog #ff Jan 30, 2013
  • +2 RT @niubi: ?@prchovanec: Twin baby girls Alice and Rachel Chovanec born at Amcare hospital in Beijing at 6:45am this morning!? Congrats Jan 30, 2013
  • premiums r so migh my nose is bleeding! $$ The RT @groditi: HY and Levered Loan CEF discount snapshot http://t.co/HH8tyX7x Jan 29, 2013
  • “You are not going to get as much from me, then. Not going 2 use Stocktwits as my Twitter client.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/78eWsIVF $$ Jan 29, 2013
  • +1 RT @allstarcharts: Here is one chart that bothers me: $IWM vs $DJIA spread peaked weeks ago as $SPY makes new highs http://t.co/Bt9c6mlB Jan 29, 2013
  • @aenbrnood @GuldbergPeter I think both of your ideas have merit, thanks Jan 29, 2013
  • “”As for the part of the budget that won’t take care of itself, President Obama fought an ugly and?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/ueQBGOkp $$ Jan 29, 2013
  • @prchovanec Leverage at each point in the chain of lending amplifies the impact of dodgy nonbank lending, esp when loans r short-dated Jan 29, 2013
  • A weakness in investment grade bonds RT @Convertbond: $DELL 5 Year CDS, Lesson on what an LBO can do to a credit.. http://t.co/foe7W2gf $$ Jan 28, 2013
  • @Danny_5079 That covenant is only common with junk bonds, though a few BBB bonds have it. That’s all. Jan 28, 2013
  • @Danny_5079 via arbitrage. Should have no effect on the deal, unless the bonds had a covenant requiring buying the bonds @ 101% in a buyout Jan 28, 2013
  • @Danny_5079 of the company & its pre-existing debt, thus leading to a decline in the value of debt, raising yield spreads. CDS reacts to it Jan 28, 2013
  • @Danny_5079 In a buyout debt is issued to finance the purchase that is equal or senior in terms of claim priority, reducing creditworthiness Jan 28, 2013
  • “They have to lure retail back in before the next bear?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/lCQ1ex1c Jan 27, 2013
  • “If the risk parity players r still levered long credit, then they r the CDO equity of this cycle. End will b ugly” http://t.co/uR8ji9Ty $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • My problem is this: we have a dysfunctional credit market where yields are too low, and protections are… http://t.co/7mYgP0VQ Jan 26, 2013

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 46 retweets received, 7 new listings, 87 new followers, 32 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 31, 2013

 

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Rest of the World

 

  • Cyprus?s now-certain default http://t.co/H7TO0rQy Cyprus is not substantial to the EU, but it does raise issues as to precedence $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • Jobs At Al Jazeera http://t.co/HzukJDoL Hiring in the USA! Join the Wahabist Ministry of Propaganda; certainly more talented than most! $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Mali Exposes Flaws in West’s Security Plans http://t.co/yixTdjVP Lack of proper gear, or American assistance, hinder Mali efforts $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Manpower Sees French Labor-Deal Boon Matching Skills to Jobs http://t.co/OdD7JaGG $MAN helps sclerotic French labor find flexibility $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Peso Beating Rupee Threatens Call Center Growth http://t.co/EkiG1wBU Phillipines will continue w/loose $$; everyone being forced2 loose $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Cairo Slum-Dwellers Despair of Mursi on Uprising Anniversary http://t.co/5TlSMPkA What did u expect? Muslim Brotherhood best organized $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Chavez Ally?s Once-in-Century Debt Exposes Neglect http://t.co/qpZqu0rQ Dumb2lend @ 5% 4 10yrs 2a nation has expropriated 15 companies $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Merkel hints at European deal for Cameron http://t.co/2ugJjTzA Ever-closer union gives way 2Europe a la carte $$ UK has better deal w/US? $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Yahoo, Dell Swell Netherlands? $13 Trillion Tax Haven http://t.co/d78DxoHN Corporations scour the globe 4 tax advantages. Wouldn’t you? $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Spain?s Lost Generation Spends Salad Days Toiling in UK http://t.co/dBMcRGGw High bad debts & unemployment, yes Mario the worst is past $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Suicide of Minister Turns Focus on Crash Taking Toll in Ireland http://t.co/8uXbcdNK The more severe the recession, the more suicides $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Draghi Says ?Darkest Clouds? Over Europe Have Subsided http://t.co/hUqda4z7 Tell that2 Slovenia! http://t.co/TJDdbTyT $$ #debtdeflation Jan 24, 2013
  • Spanish Bank Bad Loans: still tending upward http://t.co/LERSIed3 Calling Mario Draghi! Another fire to douse w/your unlimited liquidity $$ Jan 24, 2013

 

China

 

  • Feeding the Dragon: Why China?s Credit System Looks Vulnerable http://t.co/9aFA9Ivk GMO analyzes the mess that is credit in China $$ #danger Jan 25, 2013
  • China Overheating Risk Resurfaces, Ex-PBOC Adviser Says http://t.co/DcjkkslU Total debt levels comparable to dev nations prior 2 crisis $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • China’s Potential growth may slow later in decade- Older population shrinks its labor force http://t.co/Sr6zsqa8 China demographic articles Jan 24, 2013
  • In China, Widening Discontent Among Communist Party Faithful http://t.co/626NiBMR Small cracks emerge in Party loyalty #interestingtimes $$ Jan 21, 2013
  • EU remains a big external challenge to China’s economy http://t.co/YvV52N5n 5-yr plan 2 dom consumption will fail: based on transfer pmts $$ Jan 21, 2013
  • “Gehnen said most crucial for a lasting strengthening of China’s domestic demand…further development of basic systems of social security” Jan 21, 2013

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • ?Don?t work on financial crises, don?t work on contagion,? they said, according to Forbes. ?There?re not going to be anymore crises.? $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • The last tweet reflected the views of Kristin Forbes’ tenure advisors 10+ years ago http://t.co/X7MhwG9b Economists were complacent $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • The Temptation of Risk http://t.co/BLjgGwye Buying any risk asset @ this juncture feels like succumbing 2 the peer pressure of the market $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • ?The fundamental law is we can?t raise debt faster than income from now on,? Dalio said. http://t.co/rTAJfFhf Dalio Sees ?Game Changer? $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • “The worst investment decisions have generally been made when dumb money is chasing yield.” Edward Chancellor and Mike Monnelly at GMO $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • Investors See a Way Forward: Buybacks http://t.co/Q8JQHwgs Organic growth is best, but companies w/cheap stock should buyback shares $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Visual History Of The S&P 500 http://t.co/17rWiDpw 20th birthday for $SPY — Watch how the top 10 companies have varied over last 33 yrs $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Egan-Jones Faces 18-Month Ban on Sovereign, Asset-Backed Ratings http://t.co/FzPbV2zo Should have stuck w/their expertise in corporates $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Calpers Buy-Hold Rule Recoups $95B Recession Loss http://t.co/R7Hc02Hm Still short $87B, only 74% funded, asks CA & struggling cities 4 $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Investors Get a ?Perpetual? Headache http://t.co/IM5Y94IM It is usually dumb to give away your principal 4a fixed rate w/no upside $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Wrong: Money Magic: Bonds Act Like Stocks http://t.co/RNGh92EV This is little different than buying the equity of CDOs & diversifying $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • More on having technical analysis taught in financial classes in academic circles @reformedbroker @ppearlman http://t.co/WCxBcfDo $$ Jan 21, 2013
  • We must fix the broken Western state model http://t.co/L6jxLYQm Liabs, deficits & policy uncertainty lead2 economic gridlock as DC wastes $$ Jan 21, 2013

 

Companies

 

  • It Pays to Own an Energy Pipeline. Thanks, Tax Code http://t.co/2UCSALOo Almost all are set up as MLPs, which pass income to partners $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • Financial Crisis Suit Suggests Bad Behavior @ Morgan Stanley http://t.co/OkML3jhh The buyers did not do due diligence, & were yield hogs $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Explosive Charge: Morgan Stanley Peddled Security Its Own Employee Called ?Nuclear Holocaust? http://t.co/QTelsPmK Untold story: yield hogs Jan 24, 2013
  • Microsoft Risks Strain to PC Partnerships With Dell Investment http://t.co/5t0Eok5k All of $MSFT ‘s relationship’s r strained somewhat $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Firms Keep Stockpiles of ‘Foreign’ Cash in US http://t.co/r2MAumPL You want they should keep it elsewhere? At least it is safe here $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • #SYMC offers capital allocation program, plans to initiate company’s first cash dividend http://t.co/51H0zECN FD: + $SYMC 2.5% div, nice $$ Jan 23, 2013
  • Western Digital Hits 15-Yr Peak on Talk of Buyout http://t.co/GRk0JucB FD: + $WDC | $WDC more cyclical than $DELL, harder 2take private $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Loan start-up Prosper raises $20 million, led by Sequoia http://t.co/SJLnKHGa Peer-2-peer lending comes of age, Prosper attracts $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Microsoft in Talks to Help Finance Dell Buyout http://t.co/xpbAntVf Odd, indicates that $MSFT has more $$ than they know what to do with Jan 22, 2013
  • Schools Hit by Morality of Wal-Mart Guns Funding Charity http://t.co/8KgGKSQe $WMT makes <1% of its profits from guns; >1% from tobacco $$ Jan 22, 2013
  • Inside H-P’s Missed Chance to Avoid a Disastrous Deal http://t.co/tqJ6xsEx Could have walked away after firing Apotheker for ~$100M $$ Jan 22, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Senate Changes Rule on Filibusters, Keeps Supermajority http://t.co/fHOlwYmw Modest good changes made, but the filibuster stands as is $$ Jan 25, 2013
  • Facebook Friends Fronting Debt Collectors Draw US Regulation http://t.co/wZkVpdTu Debt collection harassment goes social, for now $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Fast-changing social media makes advisers scramble http://t.co/wlZ4Py1P Note to RIAs w/LinkedIn: u may need 2turn off recommendations $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Who Can Outgrow or Recover From Autism http://t.co/D3H2MrPO Autism is an overused word. Some males take longer to develop $$ Jan 22, 2013

 

Benefits now, Payment with Interest Later

?

  • Backs to the Future http://t.co/RuftcKsF by @agnestcrane | But as interest rates rise, asset values should fall; the gap should remain $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • Big Ben?s Big Bite Out of Corporate Pensions http://t.co/2Ez3PkUJ QE-infinity raises the costs of defined benefit pensions & other liabs $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • The RomneyCare Bill Comes Due http://t.co/eQ2wAqdn Coming soon to a nation (US) near you: pay more for health care or get less of it $$ Jan 24, 2013

 

Comments & Retweets

  • “I’ve always been skeptical of Bremmer & Roubini — too promotional.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/FtmDU3Th $$ Also too bearish on the US. Jan 25, 2013
  • @JackHBarnes @finemrespice I would be surprised if a bunch of Hungarians have better insight than most. Jan 26, 2013
  • @finemrespice @The_Analyst I am proud to know the both of you virtually. To all my followers, please follow. #FF Jan 26, 2013
  • @finemrespice Many apologies, I get what u r going for. Clever. Jan 26, 2013
  • ‘ @finemrespice Personally, I would like 2b more perverse — they have 2 invest their wealth in companies which they have refused 2 favor $$ Jan 26, 2013
  • @jckhewitt as you will note from my last tweet, the economics profession believed in the early 2000s that we had banished financial crises Jan 26, 2013
  • An example of an ETF that buys companies that buy back stock on net $$ $TTFS RT @jvnash1: @AlephBlog $ttfs float shrink Jan 24, 2013
  • Another good example of shrinking shares outstanding $$ RT @dwk24: @AlephBlog $COH Jan 24, 2013
  • RT @DavidBCollum: @AlephBlog Indeed. They also forget the highly complex systems improve by evolution, not human fiat. FOMC suffers “Fat … Jan 24, 2013
  • @BarbarianCap I agree, though I think developed nations should try to co-ordinate tax policy, & suggest 2 tax havens NATO has other uses 😉 Jan 24, 2013
  • ‘ @DavidBCollum I think the Fed forgets that every liability is someone else’s asset, but that every asset isn’t someone else’s liability $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • @Skrisiloff You’re welcome, Scott. Keep up the good work! Jan 24, 2013
  • @flounder_MA @smartfootball It’s a valuation question. Price below 1.3x tangible book, buy back stock. Otherwise, special dividends $$ Jan 24, 2013
  • @JMucken @DanSWright I think that’s the only utility I let auto-tweet; nice utility that sums up what I did publicly on Twitter wed-to-wed Jan 24, 2013

?? @djoalpha11 This Dan Dorfman http://t.co/XlQQXj49 ? Or another one, because the famous one is dead… Jan 22, 2013

  • @GaelicTorus @danielckoontz They serve different needs. Main point: Use your specialized knowledge 2 choose ins 2 best serve yr likely needs Jan 21, 2013
  • @danielckoontz But no, I don’t have anything in the archives on LTC, except don’t buy the stock of those whose liabilities r a hi % LTC Jan 21, 2013
  • @GaelicTorus @danielckoontz LTC is for people of in-between health; likely to live but not be so healthy, eases the unpleasantness of aging Jan 21, 2013
  • @danielckoontz also look & compare all of the terms & conditions & compare different specimen policies. Get quotes from a wide # of writers Jan 21, 2013
  • @danielckoontz LTC is useful for someone who thinks they will need lots of care, but is likely to live a long time. Best bought when younger Jan 21, 2013
  • RT @ToddSullivan: RT @Convertbond: RT ?@finansakrobat: Milton Friedman (via Morgan Stanley): ?nothing is so permanent as a temporary go … Jan 21, 2013
  • “Difficulty: few people, even professionals, are good enough to go against the grain when the masses are panicking” http://t.co/MXrg8o06 $$ Jan 20, 2013

 

FWIW

?

  • My week on twitter: 40 retweets received, 6 new listings, 81 new followers, 58 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 24, 2013

?

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Central Banking

 

  • Records Show Fed Wavering in 2007 http://on.wsj.com/SgLPoG 4 all of their vaunted intelligence, the Fed was worried, but clueless in 2007 $$
  • Three Stages of Fed Grief: Key Quotes From 2007 http://t.co/X4ygwdqU Slowly realized the economy they overlevered was getting worse $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • Fed Concerned About Overheated Markets Amid Record Bond-Buying http://t.co/wDckfD77 The sourcerer’s apprentices note there is a problem $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Paul Moreno: Gold, Greenbacks and Inflation: A History and a Warning http://t.co/75M1jNRo Ppl forget the degree the Fed has debased $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Once you turn base money into short-term debt, can you go back? http://t.co/pG3gxBwA @interfluidity ideas getting deserved attention $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • First Shots Are Fired in Global ‘Currency War’ http://t.co/y6GJi0V5 Japan leads “race 2 the bottom.” Who will b first 2 stop sterilizing? $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Currency Moves? & Central Bank Bravado http://t.co/zt7BI1As Posit that the yen is falling due to war risks & Japan biz risks in China $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Abe Rocket-Start Lowers Sony Risk With Market Fuel http://t.co/J4cLgQKJ Loose monetary has spillover benefits 2 indebted corporations $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • I’ll grant this: the government always has some role in money, even commodity money like a gold standard… http://t.co/QtVI3oeC Jan 12, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Pressure Rises on China to Scrap One-Child Policy http://t.co/iDfZ0Ssl No better way 2 have a demographic crisis; change long overdue $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • Default Alarm Rings as Trust Loans Jump Sevenfold http://t.co/2tr1vFnq China is so messed up that it makes the Eurozone look good $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Singapore Curbs Industrial Property Sales to Avert Bubble http://t.co/vZQhsdya Increases bid-ask spread; can’t fight fundamentals $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Mongolia?s Erdenes TT Halts Coal Exports to Biggest Buyer China http://t.co/hoTHAxxZ Probably either gross malfeasance or bribery $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • European Dividends Tumble to Four-Year Low as CEOs Hoard http://t.co/D6YdzVqD Favor European Exporters over their Domestic companies $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Euro at 10-Month High Poses Economic Threat, Juncker Says http://t.co/bk0FsVEE The #currencywars continue. Rule: Beggar thy neighbor $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Russia Says World Is Nearing Currency War as Europe Joins http://t.co/OvVu0ZMH Accept export slowdown? Monetize debt? Stupid QE-like stuf? Jan 17, 2013
  • Rio Tinto CEO Steps Down http://t.co/lqWyRPES Every CEO should have etched on his wall: “Paying up 4 scale acquisitions is dumb” $$ $RIO Jan 17, 2013
  • China Capital Flow: Foreign Direct Dis-Investment http://t.co/V8erkuxL Foreign inv’t inflows falling, domestic inv’t outflows rising $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • China Starts Losing Edge as World’s Factory Floor http://t.co/pG7uOFqX SE Asia benefits as China becomes more expensive 2 operate in $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Norway Sees Deeper European Job Pain as Default Fears Recede http://t.co/ztbfvp0H Rising NOK makes exports less competitive &fewer jobs $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Often when FX vols spike it means something might break, like the SNB not able continue its EUR peg. But if… http://t.co/fydAlRSX Jan 16, 2013
  • HSBC needs 2 end its Ping An silence with simple answers http://t.co/8xVAWiHD much alleged insider deal information has been circulating $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Mainland alchemists turn damaged zinc into solid gold http://t.co/W4zu69k7 An example of how Chinese banking system papers over bad debts $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Rumor: large backlog of Chinese companies want to IPO, but having hard time slowing the required 2 years of rising earnings $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Neighbors Grow More Wary of China http://t.co/aYMUvLs2 Ex-pat Chinese moving in, looking a little graspy w/respect to resources, etc $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Mineworker Debt Mounts as South African Lending Booms http://t.co/hTkXyCTc There are few places in the world without debt overages $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Deutsche Bank Derivative Helped Monte Paschi Mask Losses http://t.co/PeqTdPBT Bad investing led to losses 2 hide. Enter Deutsche Bank $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • reaching for yield http://t.co/zFaWCA7h @researchpuzzler notes tight junk spreads, but + Ed Meigs & Dan Fuss r ?naysayers on junk credit $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Short-term Debt and Financial Crises: What we can learn from US Treasury Supply http://t.co/UG1RvuHm Qty issue ST fin’l sector debt->crisis Jan 17, 2013
  • 22 Insights From The Most Successful Investors In History http://t.co/4u3QVRJL Very nice assemblage of quotes from the best investors $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • [Will] the Bond Bubble Finally Burst? http://t.co/1c7hOX4W Synthesis of a variety of views: Yes, but not in the short-run… $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • FINRA to brokers: know your high-yield securities http://t.co/DJHC5NvT Intelligent words from FINRA; b able2show clients all possibilities Jan 16, 2013
  • The High Yield Market is “Completely Out of Control.” http://t.co/GBUfGOa9 Watch risky debt buyers; c if they need things 2go right2survive Jan 16, 2013
  • Gold Forecasters Splitting on Peak for Bull Market http://t.co/EIEgk2Al Most-accurate gold forecasters>price will probably peak in 2013 $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Whatever Happened 2 Good, Old-Fashioned Accountants? http://t.co/aFofQ4Mv @retheauditors explains y basic blocking&tackling go a long way $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Yale May Buy More Hedge Fund Assets After Favoring Cash http://t.co/D0cP9LDV Timing feels wrong here w/credit spreads tight & vol low $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Baupost Group Sitting On 116% Return From Madoff Claims http://t.co/u4MYuhJI Bankruptcy judge said ?seller?s remorse,? denied his effort $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Leeway on Repo Rules Is Cut Back http://t.co/B16EXZfR “…we’re basically saying all repos should be accounted for as borrowings,” $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Inside the Self-Driving Index Funds That Finish First http://t.co/XPEfHyE4 @jasonzweigwsj $BLK low fees, shares sec lending revenue $$ Jan 15, 2013
  • How2use Twitter & Facebook 2 make $$ from shares http://t.co/lXXw321E Just watch: this causes the next ‘flash crash’ h/t: @abnormalreturns Jan 14, 2013
  • KRS Spin Machine Is Smearing The Truth Again http://t.co/VGGSkxHX Kentucky Retirement Systems does not use RFPs -> “pay to play” @ KRS $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • US Not So High Yield Bonds : “It’s Starting To Feel A Lot Like 2007” http://t.co/QUGhAMqC Will supply grow, or will misfinancing start? $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • SP500 Revisited – Testing 1484/1500 zone and reversal after? http://t.co/8TMktTjD Argues for a correction in stocks in the near term $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Hedge-Fund Leverage Rises to Most Since 2004 in New Year http://t.co/rwFVhRmz H0: flexible $$ overallocated to stocks now> correction due Jan 14, 2013
  • 39% of Fund Managers Beat the S&P in 2012 http://t.co/xRx3Juik It was a growth year & not a value year. 48% would b the 10-yr average $$ Jan 13, 2013

 

Billionaires

 

  • I suppose Bloomberg could write a book about hidden billionaires, and call it “The Billionaire Next Door.” http://bloom.bg/WN9Jo8 ?#yeah $$
  • Erie Billionaire Hagen Revealed as Car Premiums Surge http://t.co/BsMEp8gu $ERIE interesting company w/a unique asset-lite biz model $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Hidden Billionaire Milking Saudi Dairy Fortune in Desert http://t.co/XAoRKBRp Bloomberg likes ‘outing’ obscure billionaires like this $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

Personal Finance

 

  • Why you can?t avoid dumb 401(k) mistakes http://t.co/fffPsn0k Plan sponsors chase hot managers & avoid passive options $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Behind the indexed annuity curtain http://t.co/Qo7RdSX9 Avoid. Surrender charges r long & high 2pay commission; opaque int crediting $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • One in four savers has 401(k) ?leakage? http://t.co/TRBsFfwx Retirement seems far away, but $$ needs r near, so ppl tap their 401(k)s Jan 16, 2013
  • Seven Resolutions to Get Your Nest Egg in Shape http://t.co/cqNqpxJF Good basic advice 4 ordinary people taking care of the nest egg $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • E-Filing and the Explosion in Tax-Return Fraud http://t.co/9SAE6oPL Identity theft; 1 reason y I do it myself & file on paper $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Housing Problems: Where To Get Help http://t.co/3hrCyQFy @retheauditors gives advice to those having issues with foreclosures $$ #goodstuff Jan 13, 2013

 

Banks and Investment Banks

 

  • More Ideological Excuse Making for Bad Banks http://t.co/0wjkQq3n It takes two to tango; it takes two to make a loan. Both deserve blame $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • A tempest in a spreadsheet http://t.co/W2mwYeHO A reason y having robust “smell tests” r needed when mathematical models get complex $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Mortgage Nanny Added to Lender Job Description http://t.co/nRRonPBL Caveat Emptor:May make probs worse by creating illusion of safety $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Wells Fargo to Start Jet-Leasing Venture http://t.co/a0FwgcNn FD: + $WFC | I like the fact that theyr starting small #organicgrowth $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Jefferies Sets Table in Pay Clash http://t.co/s6utAuEy Or, they could jump 2 $JEF soon 2b $LUK. $$ motivates better, but conflicts occur Jan 16, 2013
  • Bankers Get IOUs Instead of Bonus Cash http://t.co/fKrpWXZL Will tie employees more tightly, unless they jump to related industries $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Report of $JPM Management Task Force Regarding 2012 CIO Losses http://t.co/i7x0Ifi4 [132pp PDF] If interested in $JPM, summary in 17 pgs $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Municipalities Should Ditch Wall Street Derivatives Deals http://t.co/Jqmgjllk If Wall St is on other side of table, watch your wallet $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Banks say new agency’s oversight is slow, costly http://t.co/aHIGFRUh Banks pine away over the regulatory laxity they had 6-10 years ago $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Goldman?s ?Secret? Team Shows Volcker?s Folly http://t.co/fovIyDRf Difficult to stop prop trading, better 2 remake I-banks partnerships $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Bank Deal Ends Flawed Reviews of Foreclosures http://t.co/7DoTN8yA absurd, $$ will b distributed w/little regard 2 who was actually harmed Jan 13, 2013

 

Economic Policy

 

  • Portfolio Manager Creates Dazzlingly Deep Presentation On What’s Really Going On With The US Economy http://t.co/vcRHWwEe Long but good $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Obama Finds Path to Congress Deals Goes Through McConnell http://t.co/B763HV1u Give him his due; has a nose that can sniff out deals $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • The Next Tax Increase http://t.co/7beI2QUO What the US Govt has belongs 2 the US Govt. What belongs 2u is subject 2 negotiation $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Swap the Debt Ceiling for a Rule That Makes Sense http://t.co/NVYjvTD8 Maybe limit total liabilities of US Gov’t to 2x GDP? Way past that Jan 16, 2013
  • Why U.S. might be ?a nation of deadbeats? http://t.co/UuOHrKlt Consumers have been paying down debt, but walking away from more $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • A Credit Downgrade Warning Both Sides Should Listen To http://t.co/TbB3Gbdn Rating agencies r more honest than US Govt. Fitch may d/g US $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Treasury Bill Rate Curve Inverts Amid Debt-Ceiling Showdown http://t.co/0KOQqC7A Bill curve showing some inversion due 2 debt ceiling $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Money-Printing Will Lead to an Inflation in Another Guise http://t.co/erqP71P7 Debt overload & slack capacity short circuit credit growth $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Two Warning Signs for Treasuries http://t.co/BdAcNkHE “yield curve btw 2&10 years is starting to steepen” Resistance 2 neg real rates up $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • TIPS Implied Inflation 4 2018-22 rose over 2012; flat now http://t.co/R28O77bX 2014 Inflation rising http://t.co/VCfupYLT $$ Fed target 2.5% Jan 16, 2013
  • US states flirt with major tax changes http://t.co/EnZmtggx Red states moving toward sales & away from personal/corporate income taxes $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

States & Municipalities

 

  • California, Unsaved, Speeds Toward a Wall of Debt http://t.co/pyrObgbr Constants in life that r not comforting: gimmicks in CA budget $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • California Could Be the Next Shale Boom State http://t.co/r0QChYDh Energy could flow from the Land of Squandered Advantages $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Pension Funding Gap Widens for Big Cities http://t.co/a76JAJT0 Expect 2c many fights where bens cut 4 new, active & retired employees $$ Jan 16, 2013

 

Companies

 

  • Suitors Interested in H-P’s Autonomy, EDS Units http://t.co/AXdvxjei Wouldn’t put 2 much into this; $HPQ won’t get good prices $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Genworth Shares Soar Amid Plan for Mortgage Insurer http://t.co/Jqmgjllk $GNW moves deck chairs on the Titanic; rewarded for now $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Chevron Signs Deal for More Oil Exploration Acres Off China http://t.co/Yqb7yY7g FD: + $CVX smiles as it rides the tiger $$ #risks Jan 16, 2013
  • My Favorite Tobacco Stock Is Intel? http://t.co/Wupvh1qk @CharlesSizemore explains y it should deliver returns, amid hatred $$ FD: + $INTC Jan 16, 2013
  • TNT Left at Altar Gets No Immediate FedEx Deal http://t.co/QSdDHarC “FedEx in a good position to wait this out & let TNT come to them.” $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Latest IPOs Arrive In The Form of New MLPs http://t.co/cq7XuIKv All of the new MLPs r energy-related $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • ARM CEO East Says Phooey to the ?Transistor Cliff? http://t.co/wfiIeQau Cost, speed, & power use r the key factors 4 logic chips $$ Jan 14, 2013

 

Miscellaneous

 

  • Davos Pitch for Dynamism Rams Into End-of-Growth Debate http://t.co/1bNvkwD7 I don’t think growth is ended, but bad finances interfere $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Global Piracy @ 5-Yr Low http://t.co/YgJlRQSh 2012: Pirates boarded 174 ships globally v 439 in 2011, people taken hostage 585<-802 $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • NRA Labels Obama Hypocrite on Guns for Child Protection http://t.co/DqIsubsA Administration doesn’t like the argument; hits close 2home $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Kidnap insurers eye sales as euro crisis bites http://t.co/w5CfiwOe Stable rates: More competition, & armed guards 4 sea transport $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Mathematicians coming of age to become the most sought after professionals http://t.co/thXJdgsS Nerds of the world unite! Big data 2analyze! Jan 16, 2013
  • The Margin Debate http://t.co/zE6p5oO1 Labor share of US GDP has fallen because growth in the global capitalist labor force, wages fall $$ Jan 13, 2013

 

Financial Blogging

 

  • Your guide 2the financial blogosphere http://t.co/9mkoln2n Comprehensive list of finance bloggers. I’m listed under “Trading & Investing” $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • What are the 100 Top (Anglo-Saxon) Finance Blogs? A Pseudo-Scientific Study http://t.co/I9UU32zP I ranked higher than I expected 🙂 $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • The purpose of this site http://t.co/Bp4sqw5o @reformedbroker ‘s excellent piece on how his blogging helps him think & invest better $$ Jan 14, 2013

?

Painting Kate Middleton

 

  • @judehere Perhaps this then? http://t.co/hstcUqPq Jan 16, 2013
  • @judehere That’s okay. You say he painted the Queen? That’s interesting. Is there an image of that out on the web? Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @judehere She seems to be a nice lady, so I wouldn’t be a fan of that. But Freud died in 2011, so the possibility is not there. Jan 16, 2013
  • But this portrait of Kate Middleton is worse in my opinion http://t.co/LBMKplpo No wonder only 19% like it. (2/2) $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Learning to draw, I copied a photo of a friend w/pencil. Another friend said “You took a very pretty girl, & turned her in2 pretty girl” 1/2 Jan 16, 2013

 

 

Michael Pettis

 

  • Pettis: What I will watch in 2013: 10 things: hard commodity prices, trade numbers, Spanish Bonds, Target 2, & Japan (2/2) $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: What I will watch in 2013: 10 things: China growth, Debt trajectory, financial scandals, bank activities, inflation (1/2) $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: Imbalances can continue for many years, I argue, but at some point they become unsustainable & the world must adjust by reversing $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: Policymakers do this by shortening their time horizons &managing from crisis2crisis, rather than sorting out the underlying problems Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: policymakers… taking steps that protect them from the consequences of the crisis but that also make the crisis worse. $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: It is interesting that policymakers are so pleased by an end (temporarily, I assume) to the financing crisis. $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis:We ended 2012 in a burst of optimism for Europe, w/everyone cheering Mario Draghi 4having ?saved? the euro, but I am deeply skeptical Jan 14, 2013

 

Wrong

?

  • Wrong: How to Find a Fund Manager Who Can Beat the Market http://t.co/2Nq1Z9b2 Doesn’t understand difference btw correlation & beta $$ Jan 15, 2013
  • Wrong: US Budget : Federal finances continue to improve http://t.co/HKzv6pLK It is a *spending* problem that started w/Bush 43, not revenue Jan 15, 2013
  • Wrong: Municipal Bonds May Not Be Safe From Income Taxes http://t.co/MnIQIdor Would be a big shift, hit blue states hard. Won’t happen $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Chris Hayes’ Brilliant Explanation Of Money Is One Of The Best Things We’ve Ever Seen On TV http://t.co/e0kxN5oZ #goldstandard $$ Jan 13, 2013

 

Comments and Retweets

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  • Good night. Blessings to all. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Think of judges in a court. No one will forgive a man for doing wrong in one area, because he has done good in others Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling It’s not a question of weakness but wrong. Divorce your wife for no good reason, cheat at your craft, all amounts 2 wrong Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Good question. God created Lance with a weakness. If Lance had trusted God, he could have overcome it, but he didn’t. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Not those that are God-given. Mt 5:48: “Therefore you shall be perfect, just as your Father in heaven is perfect.” Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling One last point: in the view of Jesus is there is no balancing. The least amount of evil poisons any good. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Read some of the writings of Kahneman & Tversky. Bad things have 3 times the force of good things. Good doesn’t erase bad Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Okay, I get it. But doing good things does not erase bad things. Doing things that are notably bad tarnishes anything good. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling I have heard the word as a part of popular culture, but have no idea what it is beyond a phrase. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Okay, I’ll bite. His charitable endeavors, but what else? Jan 18, 2013
  • @sallyeastman1 Well said Jan 18, 2013
  • My view: Lance Armstrong is best ignored. Close the browser window, change the channel on the TV, he will go away. I don’t care about him $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • @AboveAvgOdds Off to meet w/u & Chris Mayer in downtown Baltimore Jan 17, 2013
  • Endorse. I have read over half of these $$ RT @TheStalwart: The 22 books that Dylan Grice says you must read. http://t.co/QSOWvuBc Jan 17, 2013
  • @graemehein good point, but most simple models have obv intuition. Complex models have more potential 4 error b/c of 2nd+ order effects $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Others that did the same in 1994: Piper Jaffray’s Institutional Gov’t Income & FPA’s Fundamental US Gov’t Strategic Income funds Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Combined w/levering them, and not having the mathematical savvy to price them right http://t.co/5vkUxgO6 Story near the bottom Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Cate, you’re right, I’m wrong. At the time, David Askin & those like him were notable. W/Citron it was mostly structured notes Jan 17, 2013
  • @kirstensalyer Sorry, that honor belongs to the first quantitative hedge fund manager, Ben Graham, who was doing that in the 1920s Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Also used complex RMBS. There was kind of a contest 2c how much negative convexity one could absorb in exchange 4 yield Jan 17, 2013
  • RT @maxrudolph: #unintendedconsequences when pension regs set up EA designation cut off practitioners from ALM development. Still catchi … Jan 17, 2013
  • Well done $$ RT @LaurenLaCapra: Jim Chanos talks to @Reuters about Herbalife & whether Ackman or Loeb will win out: http://t.co/sV7B604o Jan 17, 2013
  • @finsovet @prieur @vitaliyk Honored 2b included in such a group Jan 17, 2013
  • Think this analysis is correct, but uncertain $$ RT @mickwe: 3D printing is a lot of hype and it’ll never go mainstream http://t.co/8wkr5oxp Jan 17, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “7 gut checks before the stock market?s opening bell” http://t.co/MrSqVXZF Jan 17, 2013
  • @niubi If so, good for him. He revolutionized my economic thinking with his last book. Looking forward to the next one. Review copy coming Jan 17, 2013
  • +1 RT @dpinsen: Paging @TomFriedman: comment on How a ‘model’ employee got away with outsourcing his work to China http://t.co/wukYAV8T $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • +2, scrap IFRS RT @Alea_: +1 Britain should scrap IFRS accounting standards, MPs told http://t.co/woWmyC2v Jan 16, 2013
  • @oddballstocks very different mindsets; marketing and operations r different from finance, which is still different from investing Jan 16, 2013
  • @oddballstocks I did that as well from 1992-1998. Tried very hard to select non-name-brand mgrs w/durable competitive advantages Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @ClayNickel It depends on how equitylike the bonds r, & the financing composition of the holders. If the bonds r financed w/sig debt.. $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • RT @Matthew_C_Klein: The big deal about the German gold story isn’t that they’re taking some of it out of NY but that they’re moving *al … Jan 16, 2013
  • RT @Matthew_C_Klein: @izakaminska has a thoughtful take on the base money debate between @interfluidity and @NYTimeskrugman http://t.co/ … Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @joshuademasi Good point. After all, most nations would love to swap for Norway’s economic situation. $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf Good insights both. We live in “interesting times” in the full meaning of the Chinese curse Jan 16, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker Rieder is a bright guy, as is my friend Ed Meigs at First Eagle; HY is okay for the short run, but 2 years out… $$ #Boom! Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf Yes Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf No, I don’t really find them persuasive. I do think that some Central Bank will stop sterilizing asset purchases, start new phase Jan 16, 2013
  • @JacPatterson I thought about that too, & think he really meant “English Language” Finance Blogs Jan 15, 2013
  • “But that also means you have to keep more $$ around if the puts get exercised, which Buffett had & many don’t.” http://t.co/uEIRn5i3 Jan 15, 2013
  • @joelight @spbaines the paragraph that starts ‘To screen out such “closet indexers,”‘ is factually wrong, does not understand statistics Jan 15, 2013
  • @joelight @spbaines I’m not arguing w/R2 as a proxy for active share, though there r better measures; article says correlation, means beta Jan 15, 2013
  • +10 Mmmmm… RT @dpinsen: Bresaola, lemon, olive oil, Parmesan, and basil joining forces for a great sandwich. http://t.co/pMMVmoI5 Jan 14, 2013
  • @abnormalreturns I’ve run into a *lot* of people trying to do this. Some are cleverer; not sure how it will work out… Jan 14, 2013
  • @JayLeonard but gold does control inflation and limits the government’s ability to use monetary policy for its own ends Jan 13, 2013
  • @JayLeonard Much of the difficulty is not gold vs not gold, but how banks were regulated — short liabs carrying long assets Jan 13, 2013
  • @GuldbergPeter Thanks, though I have heard that Canada *may* have issues. Jan 12, 2013
  • RT @GuldbergPeter: “@AlephBlog: Is there anyplace in the world that hasn’t overlent on real estate? Sweden, Canada and actually to some … Jan 12, 2013

?

FWIW

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  • My week on twitter: 40 retweets received, 1 new listings, 67 new followers, 65 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 17, 2013
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Basel III

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  • Betrayed by Basel http://t.co/dzH7crDt Additional Liquidity & Capital will always lower the bank’s ROE; banks always protest over safety $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • International rules & regs r also easier to co-opt, b/c the normal political opponents r easier to shut out of the process $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • BaSell Illiquid Liquidity Rules (Under Basel 3) http://t.co/mIww29wC International acctg rules & regulations r easier 4 companies 2ignore $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Banks Win an Easing of Rules on Assets http://t.co/8eealPyW If u want stronger banks, their costs go up b/c liquidity reduces profits $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Rules for Lenders Relaxed http://t.co/HIaunjdU Basel III Regulators Cave 2 Banks;Ease Requirements for Meeting Guideline on Liquidity $$ Jan 07, 2013

?

Rest of the World

 

  • Morocco Stalled Tourist Drive Traps Lenders http://t.co/pUdxfQUg Is there anyplace in the world that hasn’t overlent on real estate? $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • A Protest Unites Far-Flung Activists http://t.co/hGR0J8IQ China does not tolerate protests that seem to be coordinated $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • Google Chief Urges North Korea to Embrace Web http://t.co/XjXOBr4c Wait till they learn how poor they r compared 2 the rest of the world $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Gold Lures Japan?s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation http://t.co/ORqqGIuu Didn’t think Gold, Japan & inflation allowed in 1 sentence Jan 09, 2013
  • Japan to Buy European Debt With Currency Reserves to Weaken Yen http://t.co/qTW7RbqA Make a bunch of bad investments w/your monetary base $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • The Oslo Housing Bubble Syndrome http://t.co/UbXKjTvE Keep interest rates low to protect your exporters, and so inflate a housing bubble $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Pakistan Loving Fatburger as Fast Food Boom Ignores US Drones http://t.co/TlNm0DGc Something endearing about Pakistanis eating burgers $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Inconvenient Truths About Al Jazeera http://t.co/F8JdS1Co Perhaps it should be renamed “The Wahhabi Islam Ministry of Propaganda” $$ Jan 07, 2013
  • Record India Deficit May Limit Rate Cuts as Rupee Drops http://t.co/B9e24zwt India badly-run compared2 other EM Countries; feeling stress Jan 05, 2013
  • Ch?vez’s Appointed Heir Prepares 4 Battle http://t.co/JEvNVwJa Maduro Faces Factional Infighting Amid Campaign 2Win Venezuelan’s Hearts Jan 05, 2013

Fixed Income

 

  • Fitch Places Illinois GO Bonds on Negative Watch, Says Large Unfunded Pension Liabilities Unsustainable http://t.co/73qh5vg8 No Surprise $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • Is High Yield Overvalued? http://t.co/8ATkkF8B The high-yield category has increased risks and low absolute yields $$ High yield nulla est Jan 10, 2013
  • Fed Governor Tarullo pressing 4 banks 2fund themselves w/more long-term debt. http://t.co/vCT1tyy1 Good idea, I may have misjudged him $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Banks to Boost Liquidity With Illiquid Assets http://t.co/CzObiq31 Chart of the Day http://t.co/wD6VJRLi BBB bonds illiquid in crises $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Junk Bonds’ Fire Is Poised to Fade http://t.co/zSLNRXX3 Avg yields dropped below 6% 4the 1st time ever; Avg prices highest since 2004 $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Jack Lew


?? 10 Things You Need 2 Know About Jack Lew, Obama’s Next Treasury Secretary http://t.co/5kaGstrc Interesting summary of an influential guy $$ Jan 10, 2013

  • Is Jack Lew A Friend to Wall Street? http://t.co/SoK6kyw1 Like Tim Geithner, the new Treasury nominee may owe his views to Robert Rubin. $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Trading 1 type of cronyism 4another http://t.co/vCT1tyy1 & http://t.co/gx4cTK4U Lose Fed crony [Geithner], get political crony [Lew] $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Obama to Nominate Lew as Treasury Secretary http://t.co/D6rAids5 Strategy: nominate a lot of controverial ppl & wear down the Senate $$ Jan 09, 2013

?

Debt Ceilings, Platinum Coins, Etc.

 

  • This impresses me as 6 of one, a half dozen of the other. Both try to make something out of nothing. http://t.co/5afNZxY9 Jan 10, 2013
  • Platinum-Coin Punditry Poses Threat to Dollar http://t.co/0pyjh2x3 Takes my view that it will decrease demand in the Treasury market $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Only Thing Wrong With the Debt Ceiling Is the Lag http://t.co/L7LFyqeD First Congress decides on how much 2 borrow, then sets budget $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • Why we won?t mint a platinum coin http://t.co/xbDdI5IA The reaction of foreign $$ obligation holders would be swift & negative #rsvcurrency Jan 08, 2013
  • Rebranding the ?trillion-dollar coin? http://t.co/YoqGgFWQ You can’t get something for nothing; this will makes foreigners distrust the $$ Jan 05, 2013

?

Economic Policy

 

  • Fed?s Plosser Says Stimulus May Backfire, Fuel Inflation http://t.co/qtp04uVT “?stimulus? may not help speed up the process…may prolong” Jan 12, 2013
  • James Buchanan, a Star Economist Who Understood Obamacare http://t.co/qn34aQPO Bureaucrats have a natural interest in seeing gov’t grow $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Economist Who Argued Public Officials R Ruled by Self-Interest Dies http://t.co/fx8ss0r7 James Buchanan founder of Public Choice Theory Jan 10, 2013
  • Button-Down Central Bank Bets It All http://t.co/Udzx5QCF What does it mean when central banks downgrade asset quality? Very trendy $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • US Consumers Obligation to spend http://t.co/stw01ER3 America’s Cars and Appliances Are Getting Old, may presage demand 4 durable goods $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Why Austerity Works and Fiscal Stimulus Doesn’t http://t.co/nJhXmjFK Austerity exalts free actions of humans; stimulus exalts bureaucrats Jan 08, 2013
  • The Education of John Boehner http://t.co/OgUWkXUw Leverage 4the next clash: GOP willingness 2let the spending sequester take effect $$ Jan 07, 2013
  • Ending the Era of Ponzi Finance http://t.co/oaPG7s8h 24 pgs PDF | John Mauldin has Daniel Stelter describe what’s unsustainable in policy $$ Jan 05, 2013

 

Companies

 

  • Mohawk Chief Lorberbaum Emerges as Billionaire With Tiles http://t.co/lQeR5B45 $MHK CEO owns 14% of the company; he’s a clever acquirer $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • What?s at the Center of the Debate Over Herbalife http://t.co/B4GV7Fi5 Ackman is hoping the FTC will declare $HLF 2b a pyramid scheme $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • News Corp. Tabloid Swaps Sex for Cats Among Brands Buffing Image http://t.co/4wILocCG No one is immune from aiming 4 irrelevance $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Buffett Railroad Sees Crude Cargo Climbing 40% http://t.co/JmbE7HmT Makes up for a loss of revenue in hauling coal $$ FD: + $BRK.B Jan 08, 2013
  • Secret Goldman Team Sidesteps Volcker After Blankfein Vow http://t.co/mTCwjoZ8 Wagers ~$1B $GS own funds on unaffiliated stocks/bonds $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Bill Ackman Says Just Getting Started Exposing Herbalife http://t.co/Cp40Zuqu Most of my summary acctg test #s look okay on $HLF. ?? $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Housing? Finance

 

  • The latest foreclosure horror: the zombie title http://t.co/b7hkmKDX Long article about people stuck w/homes b/c banks won’t foreclose $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • Rules Set for Home Lenders http://t.co/jg7QqiwQ Rules seem overly lenient; has the CFPB been co-opted already? That was fast $$ Jan 10, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Hedge Funds Squeezed With Shorts Beating S&P 500 http://t.co/55EpCxpb Positive momentum has led many shorts to cover, performance drags $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Finra to Shine Light on Dark Pool Trading http://t.co/Nt9OjmIb Does FINRA have the talent to analyze this? That would surprise me. $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • In Search of Family Ties http://t.co/g5SGaY1Z Families w/control can b valuable if they r interested in growth & not milking da biz $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • What’s Hot?And What’s Not (in mutual funds) http://t.co/W3blerlL Hot: Low Vol, Local $$ EM bonds, Active Bond ETFs Not: Vol ETPs, 130/30 Jan 07, 2013
  • Above the Market?s Leading Investment Indicators http://t.co/j54Dl3vu Long-term val’n measures like Q-ratio, CAPE10, Total Cap/GDP, etc $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Well done, Henry. I write this as one who enjoys BI, though I was won over bit-by-bit. Keep up the good work. http://t.co/cWecMkPh Jan 10, 2013
  • Check These Out at the Library: Blacksmithing, Bowling, Butchering http://t.co/teaqR76s Who knew Libraries would try 2b so relevant? $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Excellent Police http://t.co/qKpoliWR What the Baltimore P.D. can teach your office about multitasking and incentives. $$ #whoknew Jan 07, 2013
  • East St. Louis Cops Outgunned as Cuts Let Killers Thrive http://t.co/zHGmesXX Cut the Federal budget; don’t cut the local budget $$ Jan 06, 2013
  • Keystone Pipeline Clears a Big Hurdle in Nebraska http://t.co/Y1WqqCiE Local review says small impact on the environment at most $$ Jan 05, 2013

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong: Buffett Says Banks Cleared of Excess Risk Pose No Threat to US http://t.co/KWtOOcxo Excessive reliance on Fed funding $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Wrong: Why we need a currency war with China (and Denmark and Singapore ? ) http://t.co/b8XqDqfa You may as well say “Smoot-Hawley” $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Replies & Retweets

  • RT @cate_long: While savers forgo ~$200B in interest payments “@nytimesbusiness: Fed transferred $88.9 billion to Treasury in 2012 http: … Jan 10, 2013
  • @NickTimiraos Steep yield curve helps too, though it isn’t *that* steep thanks 2 QE-infinity Jan 10, 2013
  • @Kathleen_Hays Not necessarily. My friend Caroline Baum shared this article w/me: Is Jack Lew A Friend to Wall Street? http://t.co/SoK6kyw1 Jan 10, 2013
  • RT @ajkurki: @AlephBlog Absolute yields below 1st percentile of all observed observations since mid-90s (BofAML data). What could go wrong?! Jan 10, 2013
  • @cabaum1 Dear Caroline, thank you for replacing my bias w/a good article. Rubin’s influence is significant; didn’t know Lew was part of it Jan 10, 2013
  • @CharlesSizemore That it did. Jan 10, 2013
  • @CharlesSizemore I’m sorry, Charles. In my busyness, I didn’t catch that, and I should have. Apologies. Jan 10, 2013
  • Not a chance $$ RT @CharlesSizemore: Is Sears the Next Berkshire Hathaway? http://t.co/NNro3uuu $SHLD $BRK-A $BRK-B $WMT $HD #WarrenBuffett Jan 10, 2013
  • @EddyElfenbein Just a general mindset, but the penny stock promoters irritate me to the max. Jan 10, 2013
  • Investment banks r bull market babies $$ RT @ReformedBroker: Morgan Stanley still searching for a reason to exist $MS http://t.co/Zux43Z7C Jan 10, 2013
  • @howardlindzon @researchpuzzler Happy new year to both of you as well. May you have joys and constructive challenges. Jan 10, 2013
  • @howardlindzon @researchpuzzler Have fun reading tonight’s Aleph Blog piece then 😉 $$ (Not published yet) Jan 10, 2013
  • Eisenstadt discovers momo RT @researchpuzzler: “Go to it then.” Arnold Bernhard, in 1959, sounding like @howardlindzon http://t.co/jyCz1Fhi Jan 10, 2013
  • @Kelly_Evans It’s okay… given all that you do, an occasional blip is fine. I make lots of mistakes…. Jan 09, 2013
  • @Fullcarry I *don’t* think it will be an equilibrium. Besides, equilibria are rare in economies, they are ultracommon in journals though Jan 09, 2013
  • @Kelly_Evans Perhaps you mean inversely? Jan 09, 2013
  • @Fullcarry My problem is that most of the major central banks r doing this, not just Japan. What happens when all CBs have corrupt $$ bases? Jan 09, 2013
  • @moorehn @katierogers There were more revenues behind the Bowie bonds than the worth of the platinum in a coin. $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • @macrotourist Thanks, did not have time to listen to the webcast, but the slides are interesting. Jan 08, 2013
  • @LaurenLaCapra you’re right, wasn’t thinking — tweet deleted Jan 08, 2013
  • You can say that again. $$ RT @profithuntergrp: @AlephBlog agreed Iceland proved it early on – do the hard thing! Jan 08, 2013
  • Something looks wrong w/slide 3 — the bar lengths don’t compare with the numbers next to them. $$ http://t.co/kECnkBA0 Jan 08, 2013
  • Shouldn’t black holes be stable? They exist because all mas in a given area collapses under its gravity… http://t.co/4xJVsykF Jan 08, 2013
  • @JacobWolinsky It is more accurate, so I made the change… Jan 07, 2013
  • @munilass Do you have any opinion on BAM? I’m a little skeptical because credit risks r more correlated than life, P&C, etc. Jan 07, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “Lou Simpson’s top stock picks – MarketWatch” http://t.co/uTBPy1QW Jan 07, 2013
  • @JacobWolinsky That’s a fair point. I’ll delete the last tweet, & send out a better one. Jan 07, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “Lou Simpson’s top stock picks – MarketWatch” http://t.co/nC1KnTr2 Jan 07, 2013
  • RT @ModeledBehavior: A trillion dollar coin really feels like the U.S. jumping the shark. We’ve been on for too many seasons, the plots … Jan 05, 2013

?

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 63 retweets received, 2 new listings, 50 new followers, 56 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 10, 2013

?

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Before I give you the Tweets, I just want to tell you that I will be blogging? this fine accounting conference on IFRS/ US GAAP.? Those that want to attend at a discount can use this code Aleph10 to save 10%.? CFAs get a code that saves 20%.? I think the conference will be valuable, so I will be heading up to NYC on January 10th.? See you at NYSSA’s conference center near Times Square.

Now for the Tweets:

THE FISCAL CLIFF!!! AUGH!!!

 

  • The Fiscal Cliff Could Last Forever http://t.co/ay6gKOrc The upward curve in entitlement expenditures could make “fiscal cliff” normal $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • Fed Helps US Dance on Ceiling http://t.co/g2X0UijU Seiniorage revenue (stealth tax on savers) keeps the deficit lower than otherwise $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Grand Bargain Shrinks as Congress Nears US Budget Deadline http://t.co/Dr2GCk6l No incentive 4 either side 2 do a deal $$ #shiftblame Dec 26, 2012
  • No Fiscal Cliff Deal Could Cause Jails To Release Inmates http://t.co/07gm3Drm We need less costly alternatives 2 incarceration $$ Dec 25, 2012
  • Campaign on US Debt Gains Steam http://t.co/CwdnN21X ?4 the longest time, nobody cared, nobody listened-it was 15 years of irrelevancy.? $$ Dec 24, 2012
  • Cliff Would Strike Low Incomes Hard http://t.co/aEENGola Difficult 2 say who would b most affected if we went over the fiscal cliff $$ Dec 24, 2012

 

China

 

  • China Tightens Rules for Internet Users http://t.co/HRACEhue Problem: very difficult to enforce when u have so many users $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • Chinese Scholars Demand Communist Leaders Relax Their Grip http://t.co/1bdCHHDL They think another Cultural Revolution can’t happen?… $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • Billionaire Princelings Ruin a Chinese Vision http://t.co/mTHFPt8R Crony capitalism w/Chinese “Communist” characteristics ->princelings $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • 3rd&last long article on Chinese political succession: Xi Jinping Relations Reveal Fortunes of Some Elite in China http://t.co/iFz7e6dg $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Heirs of Mao?s Comrades Rise as New Capitalist Nobility http://t.co/ALYa5e7V It’s becoming an aristocracy in China & will that last? $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Defying Mao, Rich Chinese Crash the Communist Party http://t.co/UTcNO2oj Looong article on wealthy in China gaining political power $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Too big to fail? China’s wealth management products stir debate http://t.co/UM5Z5vxr China gets its turn to decide: bailout or failure? $$ Dec 26, 2012
  • Bell tolls for Beijing’s Drum Tower homes http://t.co/SJrkVhXO Forced evictions from old homes to enhance a touristy area in Beijing $$ Dec 24, 2012

 

Michael Pettis

 

  • Pettis: …illicit money out of China totaled US$420 billion in 2010… 94% of the illicit $$ flows occur through mis-invoiced trade Dec 22, 2012
  • Wow. Pettis: Trade misinvoicing is the preferred method of transferring illicit capital from all regions except the MENA region Dec 22, 2012
  • Pettis: problem is the inexorable tendency of the current development model 2generate debt faster than it generates debt-servicing capacity. Dec 22, 2012

 

Rest of the World

?

  • Euro Zone Set to Continue Contraction http://t.co/rFOZlSjy Successful austerity eliminates much debt for small GDP losses; but this? $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • Cinnabon Finds Sweet Success in Russia, Mideast http://t.co/IFewJw5p Interesting print&video interview; they customize 2 local tastes $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • Putin Set to Sign Russian Adoption Ban http://t.co/ODMcwtTP The kindness of the wicked is cruel, Pr 12:10b $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Betting on Yen to Fall Further in 2013? Think Again http://t.co/38zvTYmk Depends on how much expectations change in the race 2 the bottom $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Iran Says ?Irresponsible? GCC Raises Regional Tensions http://t.co/Xqut7V9z Iran cries “foul” when the Sunnis take them seriously $$ Dec 26, 2012
  • GCC to Form Unified Military Command Amid Iran ?Threats? http://t.co/EBO0aaaW Great, not. The Sunnis join forces to fight the Shia $$ Dec 25, 2012
  • Norway Looks to Spread Wealth to US http://t.co/qsDYlE3o Norway’s SWF likes 2 buy irreplaceable real estate; lotsa kronor 2put 2work $$ Dec 25, 2012
  • Deciphering the Decline in Spanish Mobile Accounts http://t.co/ckXo2TT7 Mobile subscriptions usually 1 of last things to go when $$ tight Dec 24, 2012
  • Yen Weakens to 20-Month Low on Abe?s BOJ Pledge; Euro Up http://t.co/aEENGola The race to the bottom continues, w/Japan running hard $$ Dec 24, 2012
  • Looting Tests Leader in Argentina http://t.co/mhwSo7AG Yes, cry 4 Argentina. What should b a wealthy place suffers from bad leaders $$ Dec 24, 2012

 

Fixed Income & Real Estate

 

  • Housing Wealth and Wage Bargaining http://t.co/etoJ7w7A When people think they r going to lose their houses they get desparate $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • Gross Doubles New York Bet as California Loses Lead http://t.co/l0w0wBJr NY is less of a dirty shirt than CA $$ Keeps adding to Munis Dec 27, 2012
  • Mortgage-Bond Sales Soar on Fed?s Refinance Push http://t.co/xX7Do3TY “Sales of U.S.-

backed mortgage bonds soared to a three-year high” $$ Dec 27, 2012

  • A Banner Year for Riskiest Debt http://t.co/zdb83zAa End of Affair With Corporate Bonds http://t.co/rkb2jdtZ 2013 should b ok $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Home Prices Hit a Milestone http://t.co/cwpVuhfn Nice Graphic: http://t.co/sQggRNj8 Portrait of a dead cat bounce $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Home-Price Gains Pick Up as US Real Estate Market Rebounds http://t.co/8ZHWeMkU Too early to say much about this dead cat bounce $$ #mew Dec 26, 2012
  • ‘Hope Note’ Strategy Is @ Times Hopeless http://t.co/5TDgdL6z 0% certificate that if everything works perfectly, might get a recovery $$ Dec 24, 2012

 

Stocks, Industries, and Market Dynamics

 

  • Refiners Beating Exxon Join Pipeline Boom for Lost Margin http://t.co/VdzNxkn4 Oil Boom Spurs New Investment http://t.co/4pGXup4P $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • Look at this graph of Barrick Gold Corporation $ABX http://t.co/T4DD2JYU Is the main reason 4 underperforming $GLD rising mining costs? $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • ICE Chief Challenges Stock Views of Trading http://t.co/9OvrtlSF Now watch $CME buy out $NDAQ & we can transform mkts, but2 what end? $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Garbage Time http://t.co/deDDfsmp @reformedbroker on the lack of liquidity/activity @ year-end. Every real player is looking forward $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Gus Sauter is at the Vanguard of Roping In Trading Costs http://t.co/OtLi9XBk Sauter likes HFT, uses algorithms 2 lower Vanguard’s costs $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • SEC going high-tech with real-time trade data http://t.co/AWpNNDjd The SEC can get some really fancy tools, but can they use them well? $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • It’s Time for Cramer 2 Short His Show http://t.co/QZ4UUqFF Cramer invests differently than his show; show on how he invests would b dull $$ Dec 26, 2012
  • How to Tell When a Stock Buyback Is Good for Investors http://t.co/SnnQeDoV If price rises on the announcement, it is usually LT good $$ Dec 24, 2012
  • Retiring Vanguard CIO Gus Sauter Looks Back http://t.co/q9rUbE0L A true titan of mutual funds as Vanguard served clients, not Vanguard $$ Dec 22, 2012

 

Macroeconomics And the Fed

 

  • The Mythology of Chained CPI http://t.co/UbtRkVAF Better to cut benefits directly, & not b sneaky by making a technical adjustment $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Puzzle of weak investment jeopardizes growth rebound http://t.co/7ya8nkks People & firms will not invest 4 the future if present is weak $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Push for Cheaper Credit Hits Wall http://t.co/48PKxWSf Watch the Fed push on a string; my aren’t they diligent? $$ #untestedtheories Dec 24, 2012
  • Evans Won New Fed Consensus Linking Rates to Unemployment http://t.co/NOelrxXm One day we will call bad economic ideas “Evans.” $$ Dec 24, 2012
  • Usage: “Where did you ever come up with an Evans like that?” “I was so embarrassed for him. At the meeting, he uncorked a real Evans.” $$ Dec 24, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Curbs on Smokers Continue to Grow http://t.co/8APeHuzz I’m allergic 2 cigarette smoke, but we r disadvantaging smokers 2 much $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • Perfect 10? Never Mind That. Ask Her for Her Credit Score. http://t.co/LWb4B7lE Even true love can be thwarted by a lousy credit score $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • 2013 Threats Predictions from McAfee, 16 pages PDF http://t.co/atec8Hpm Introduction article here: http://t.co/LTcjeTxR Surf carefully $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Anatomy of an Air Attack Gone Wrong http://t.co/EBt24vfj A botched attack on a terror suspect kills 12 civilians & destroys a community $$ Dec 26, 2012
  • Do Unmarried Poor Have Bad Values or Bad Jobs? http://t.co/ukj2Mg99 Only 57% of couples in the program were still together after 3 yrs $$ Dec 26, 2012
  • The Great Chicago Christmas Credit Card Fiasco of 1966 http://t.co/zKR9oFjr Figures it would happen in Chicago, a sandbox 4 corruption $$ Dec 25, 2012
  • NY, Unlike Most States, Treats Education Achievements & Even Talents as Property to Be Divided Between Spouses http://t.co/totejhuX $$ Dec 25, 2012

 

Comments & Replies & Retweets

 

  • Just had a great time w/ @japhychron & @Daily_Pinch $$ RT @japhychron: Getting ready to meet @AlephBlog @ Starbucks http://t.co/f7k3gCTY Dec 28, 2012
  • Gas. Large family only buys 7 gals milk/wk max $$ RT @fundmyfund: what would cause more distress for american households? $6 gas or $6 milk. Dec 28, 2012
  • @mattrixDOTinfo @fundmyfund We had eight (5 adopted) — we briefly maxed out @ 8 gals/week, only 5 @ home now but bigger, so 7 gals/wk 4 us Dec 28, 2012
  • Fiscal Cliff: Boo! Dec 28, 2012
  • RT @randomroger: Fiscal Cliff: Boo! Dec 28, 2012
  • @DavidSchawel Mostly a fair observation, the only exception is that if u think the economy will shift & u r right, the returns can b big $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • @tarhinitrade @ReformedBroker Sound money allows businessmen to be more rational & enterprising. Also, macroeconomists r pretend 2 know $$ Dec 28, 2012
  • @XacAngXiangYin You’re welcome. China is fascinating to me. Dec 28, 2012
  • Just bought: ‘Financial Fine Print: Uncovering a Company’s True Value’ by Michelle Leder via @amazon cc: @footnoted $$ http://t.co/VKc1jdRp Dec 28, 2012
  • ‘ @TheStalwart Yeah, watching $LLL run higher over the last few months. Glad I didn’t sell. FD: + $LLL $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • So far people don’t seem 2b panicking. $$ RT @Alea_: We’ve Already Gone Over the Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/LyzU2bqo from: @cabaum1 Dec 27, 2012
  • @jucojames Thanks, that helps. Dec 27, 2012

?? @dpinsen @footnoted The price of helium is ballooning 😉 Dec 26, 2012

  • @TheStalwart Not much, man. Stocks are likely to sell of a little on the open. Bonds will rally a little. Dec 26, 2012
  • @BUDDIEE18 You have clever phrasing but you don’t have proof. Dec 26, 2012
  • ‘ @Jesse_Livermore @scott_matagrano I know one or two guys that do it professionally; I just don’t know how they get the borrow Dec 26, 2012
  • ‘ @BUDDIEE18 You may find this difficult to believe, but $TSM has a really strict policy against market manipulation for its writers Dec 26, 2012
  • ‘ @scott_matagrano Promoted penny stocks are better: -93%/yr if you can get a borrow. http://t.co/jJ79L4Ac Dec 26, 2012
  • “Given the predominance of S-T $$ in professional $$ mgmt, I think most smart $$ is slow $$. But if?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/04qie15E Dec 26, 2012
  • Excitement @ the Merkel house today: a water main breaks, brings 5 trucks & 10 men paid triple 2 avoid annoying relatives & icky food $$ Dec 25, 2012
  • Make that 6 trucks. De bossman jus showed up, so the fine art of sitting around ceases, & swing around in2 what is loosely called action $$ Dec 25, 2012
  • @rudibest Reminds my of an article I wrote in 2009 called, “Voted for Change, Got Bush-Plus” & it has only been more so since then $$ Dec 24, 2012
  • Well said. The law was against them from the start $$ RT @munilass: Congratulations @CalPERS on your new status as Just Another Creditor Dec 22, 2012

 

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong: High-Frequency Trading Prospers at Expense of Everyone http://t.co/jG4mgsRt This just looks like intelligent arbs doing business $$ Dec 27, 2012
  • Wrong: People Hate Losses & That Affects US Budget Talks http://t.co/uDNqcQeE Not good logic. More like envy 2 deny other side a win $$ Dec 25, 2012
  • Americans Miss $200 Billion Abandoning Stocks http://t.co/vO4s2t4S Better H/L: Open end Mutual Fundholders Miss $200B Abandoning Stocks $$ Dec 24, 2012
  • Wrong: India?s Unfinished Journey to Economic Success http://t.co/CnJ7I69y Gary Schilling’s musings on India in need of cultural reform $$ Dec 22, 2012

 

FWIW

?

  • My week on twitter: 53 retweets received, 57 new followers, 33 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Dec 27, 2012

 

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Macroeconomics

 

  • Here’s my plan for reducing the deficit: http://t.co/XJPjf8A5 #mydeficitplan via @wsj Draconian, I know, but the budget shoould b balanced Dec 21, 2012
  • Canada?s exports crucial as sluggish growth continues: IMF http://t.co/iIOJ6PoF Bank of Canada should raise rates 2 reduce excessive debt $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Everything You Need To Know About the Economy in 2012, in 34 Charts http://t.co/aXnjSkR0 Good stuff; could have been formatted better $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Fiscal Cliff’s Dirty Secret: It’s Not About Taxes At All, But Too Much Spending http://t.co/UY8rKW9h We need 2 deal w/SS, Medicare & Defense Dec 20, 2012
  • We?ve Nationalized the Home Mortgage Market. Now What? http://t.co/YSCrvVmK Congress loves 2 have cows around that they can milk for $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • EU Banking Re-Unions http://t.co/khSA0co0 The lack of a timetable indicates that things aren’t really finalized; not sure this will fly $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • ?Spending Cuts? Lose Something in Translation http://t.co/DYFxVMno Only in DC is reducing planned growth in spending called a cut $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Money Funds Brace for Flood http://t.co/4J7VWuxx MMFs r between a rock & a hard place: loose Fed policy & regulatory over-reach $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Wall Street’s Biggest Geniuses Reveal Their Favorite Charts Of 2012 http://t.co/at12mMsV Very long, but lots of good stuff $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • My forward estimates, derived from TIPS are rising, 2014 inflation, and 2018-2022 inflation. The latter has… http://t.co/tgrGfiDG Dec 19, 2012
  • Estimated 2018-2022 inflation rate continues to rise: http://t.co/ebqeM5KJ Stagflation may be coming. cc: @federalreserve #stagflation $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Estimated 2014 inflation rate continues to rise: http://t.co/ZrvIc5Nk Stagflation may be coming. cc: @federalreserve #stagflation Dec 19, 2012
  • Economics may be dismal, but it is not a science http://t.co/I6B9LbSw No universal economic theory, & new economic thinking must be eclectic Dec 18, 2012
  • Fisher: Fed Risks ‘Hotel California’ Monetary Policy http://t.co/fRKOYl9d When the Fed starts 2 tighten, it will b hard 2 do $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • FDIC Guarantee Program Set to Expire After Senate Block http://t.co/qPdQNWQF Will squeeze the short end of the yield curve further $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • US Banks Lack Liquidity to Withstand Crisis, Study Says http://t.co/psmQEP1z Liquidity mismatches r pernicious; key risk gets ignored $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Mkts r discounting mechanisms. Temporary events like bond ratings, debt ceiling & fiscal cliff should not affect market much $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • So, as an example, if the govt runs a deficit, it should not stimulate much b/c people discount future econ adjustment b/c of more debt $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Same 4 monetary policy; the Fed can “stimulate” as much as it likes; mkt players discount the future removal of policy, inflation, etc. $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Cliff? What Cliff? http://t.co/QEvklDQU Or maybe, just maybe investors don’t care whether we go over the “fiscal cliff” or not. $$ Dec 17, 2012

 

Stocks & Sectors

 

  • There are 272 gold & silver companies trading on US exchanges or OTC. 59 of them have mkt caps > $100M. 22 of them have mkt caps > $1B $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Aviva Sells US Life Business to Apollo for $1.8B http://t.co/UqM2kqyr When Aviva bot Amerus, I said that they overpaid massively. Proof $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Value Investing In Practice: A Conversation About Oaktree Capital http://t.co/4FVok5wz Good value investing does not hyper-diversify $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • ICE in Deal to Buy NYSE http://t.co/ik348vsZ New era; expect 2c more deals like this. As an aside average holders of $NYX stock lost $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Buffett’s Leading The Corporate Buyback Surge http://t.co/U3piJgDv He has the $$, & 1.2x BV is a defensible floor ||| FD: + $BRK.B Dec 19, 2012
  • Investment Fads and Themes by Year, 1996-2012 http://t.co/cvLFKyRE @reformedbroker on what the broad themes this year & back to 1996 $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Alterra up after deal, analyst positive on Bermuda peers http://t.co/Y5jTB40c Room 4 a new round of consolidation. $MKL buys $ALTE $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • $ALL Bets on Home Insurance as Stock Rally Withstands Sandy http://t.co/XBQOOSB5 Insured damages (excl flood) low4 Sandy; premratesflat $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Stocks Held Hostage as CEOs Plan Spending Cuts http://t.co/5c7nBKAS It is difficult to avoid deflation; so much uncertainty presently $$ Dec 18, 2012

 

Credit & Fixed Income

 

  • Swaps ?Armageddon? Lingers as New Rules Concentrate Risk http://t.co/QK3s19Hz Clearinghouses r not a panacea; it is possible 4 them 2 fail Dec 21, 2012
  • Americans Hacked Don?t Know Chamber Left Them Alone http://t.co/DSBDUijq Common programs place yr computr @ risk; CoC defends SW makers $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • The Indianapolis 500 of Corporate Bonds Yields http://t.co/dCamXED3 Too much $$ flowing into corporate credit; feels like 2006 Dec 20, 2012
  • India Cash-for-Gold Loans Hide Shadow-Banking Risks http://t.co/BGnO4YWI 2much lending creates a mess; 2much secured lending creates a panic Dec 20, 2012
  • Pimco Sees Spreading Slowdown Boosting [Australian] Bonds http://t.co/oDFSkGoF Pimco buying the debt of fringe developed nations $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • CAB Legislation Expected in January http://t.co/TSuxBmM4 California legislation proposed 2 limit issuance of Capital Appreciation Bonds $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Why China May Be Facing US-Style Credit Crunch http://t.co/99xMzC3M “To some extent, this is fundamentally a Ponzi scheme,” [Xiao] said. $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Pimco’s Gross Cuts Back on MBS http://t.co/4FaxLTKq Lightening up on MBS & Corporates, buying developed fringe, sticking w/TIPS $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Mind the rate risk http://t.co/nVqjlWW9 Rates may stay low 4 a while, but when they run up, total returns could b worse than 1994 $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Spain House Prices – Deconstructing Spain http://t.co/7ARRPZqS Housing prices continue 2fall, more foreclosures, setting up bad bank fund $$ Dec 17, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Valero Received Approval 2 Ship US Crude 2 Quebec Refinery http://t.co/ojABCqu1 Could b start of something big: US exports oil FD:+ $VLO Dec 20, 2012
  • Extracting shale oil from a Dead Cow http://t.co/bok4bNE7 Interesting: after the expropriation of Repsol that oil majors line up4more $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Gasoline at US Pumps Drops to Lowest in a Year on Supply Gain http://t.co/4pI5SXiV Good news coming to users of refined fuel products $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • California refiners dreamin’ of shale oil face hurdles http://t.co/vJgiW4rm Many efforts t get cheap oil 2 CA; $24/bbl price difference $$ Dec 17, 2012

 

Other

 

  • CEOs Concerned about the Time and Cost of Implementing Predictive Analytics http://t.co/QcABrcFH Big data facilitates cluster pricing $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • In the Flesh: The Embedded Dangers of Untested Stem Cell Cosmetics http://t.co/de2aio1V Adult stem cells can do as much harm as good $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • The First Time Tech Ruined the Music Business http://t.co/d0RE4002 As technologies improve all manner of “rights” issues crop up $$ Dec 18, 2012
  • Advisers Question Modern Portfolio Theory http://t.co/lLbCVvgL Look through the security 2 the underlying economics of the investment $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Twitter has started rolling out the option to download all your tweets http://t.co/IIOVO6mJ Not common yet, but may b coming soon $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Schools Safer Than 1990s as Educators Anticipate Killers http://t.co/aQaB6G6Q Students r far less likely2b killed in school than elsewhere Dec 17, 2012
  • Highest-Paid California Trooper Is Chief Banking $484,000 http://t.co/JwgYWfg2 Giving officers comp time rather than $$ 4 unused vacation Dec 17, 2012
  • ‘Followers for sale’: Twitter’s very own black market http://t.co/HKCqo074 Fake Follower Check will estimate how many followers r real $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • SEC Says Asset Firm Manipulated Trades to Enrich Some Clients http://t.co/L8IJQ77k I remember their ads, proclaiming their track record $$ Dec 17, 2012

 

Wrong

  • Bad idea: Africa Dreams of Building Telescopes to Study Space http://t.co/gSwkKIBs Would make more sense 4 Africa to fix agriculture $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Wrong: US should intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh process at the highest level http://t.co/2tJTKtht We should stick 2r own business $$ Dec 18, 2012
  • Wrong: This is why I generally don’t like Quartz; pretending to be smart $$ RT Our favorite charts of 2012 http://t.co/w2bvLDvX Dec 18, 2012

 

Replies & Comments

  • “This would have been a better article if you had put separators between each graph/explanation.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/uoMy61H1 $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein Thanks, Eddy. Dec 19, 2012
  • @geekpryde Hey, thanks for the kind words, I appreciate that you follow me. Dec 19, 2012
  • @VIXandMore Ludwig is letting us down, and 3 days after his birthday. Call Schroeder 😉 Dec 19, 2012
  • @Alea_ Cool new avatar, I like it Dec 19, 2012
  • @Money_in_Stereo Well said, though I am not an expert there. Thanks for sharing that. Dec 18, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap Hint: if company is offering u a nice buyout, they r offering less than its worth, unless u no more about when u will die $$ Dec 18, 2012
  • @volatilitysmile @carney I knew a close adviser of Mozillo; he told me stories of how disconnected Angelo was w/reality in 2009 $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • @nicster There have been many changes, but they are all local, and don’t make the news. US Govt was stupid on the shoe bomb. Local better $$ Dec 15, 2012

Retweets

  • Amazing RT @moorehn: “the average lifespan of American musical superstars in the pop, rock and rap genre is only 45.” http://t.co/uXVNuStF Dec 20, 2012
  • Practically. Old bond mgr rule: underweight the most rapidly growing debt class $$ RT @ToddSullivan: didn’t they already do student loan? Dec 20, 2012
  • Remember deriving formula when younger $$ RT @munilass: Twelve Days of Christmas and tetrahedral numbers http://t.co/VVNnyU2V (via @ptak) Dec 20, 2012
  • You can say that again $$ RT @japhychron: @AlephBlog Always funny the way they call economics a science. Studying people is anything but. Dec 18, 2012
  • Banks are insolvent & w/large & rapidly growing budget deficit $$ RT @FGoria: DJ: Cyprus May Be Days Away From Default — Fin Min Official Dec 17, 2012
  • Sad & dumb $$ RT @carney: You’d never guess who has a completely self-serving & bonkers theory of the financial crisis. http://t.co/LIAd8WqB Dec 17, 2012

 

Twitter Summary

  • My week on twitter: 72 retweets received, 1 new listings, 85 new followers, 132 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Dec 20, 2012

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Who to Follow

 

  • #FF @researchpuzzler @newrulesinvest @felixsalmon @interfluidity @Alea_ I go through my follow list twice/yr & highlight those I respect $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • #FF @EddyElfenbein @ReformedBroker @smallcapanalyst @BarbarianCap @abnormalreturns @TheStalwart @The_Analyst @mickwe @marketfolly @bondscoop Dec 15, 2012

 

Stupid political things I have said

 

  • @jpgriffard When I say great, I mean “large.” I hate them both. Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde Me too, thanks 4 interacting w/me Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde Wrong time of year, and Congress is tied up with the budget, so I guess no. NYC mayor provoked me, demanding immediate action Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @JoshForde Yes. Unintended consequences. 9-11 and the wars it engendered r my leading exhibits there. The US messed up badly. Dec 15, 2012
  • @Borderscrossed No they don’t, have a good night. Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde That I can agree with as well, w/rights come responsibilities, bigtime. Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde Second-order effects; our policy usually omits those. Example: the Fed & Central Bank freedom; what if they act irresponsibly? Dec 15, 2012
  • @trmcloughlin I would agree with that also Dec 15, 2012
  • @incakolanews I would agree w/that Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde Okay, but I’ve said that before on other topics… this has been a general position of mine on a wide # of issues, not just guns Dec 15, 2012
  • Auughh! Blam! Drones r another ethical issue that I hate $$ RT @Borderscrossed: @AlephBlog NSA has logged our tweets. Drones on the way. Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @jpgriffard He has two great achievements PPACA & Dodd-Frank Dec 15, 2012
  • @Borderscrossed Wait, you said “Obama” & “do something” in the same tweet. Isn’t that illegal? 😉 Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde I’m willing to consider… what was insensitive? Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @ross_marketment I agree, freedom requires some laws, and here’s one to consider… liability for not securing your gun. Dec 15, 2012
  • Behind every economic view there is a political view. Unavoidable. All I know is that I get more grief from writing on politics. $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • @laGiocondaVinci That’s fine hope u do well Dec 15, 2012
  • My politics r complex; I am mostly a libertarian: I was against Iraq 1 & 2, Afghanistan. I did not like Bush 43, don’t like Obama either $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • RT @dpinsen: @AlephBlog The same people who now regret the TSA, the PATRIOT Act, etc. rushed through after 9/11 want to rush through mor … Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @Borderscrossed I am just saying 4 all legislation consider the second order effects; never act in heated emotion, consider all effects $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @ross_marketment Again, 9/11 is my best example. It has harmed Americans more than our enemies. I have been against all our recent wars $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • @streetbrief Take care Dec 15, 2012
  • @ross_marketment Not sure. I am saying is consider wide range of effects from policy change; we do not typically do that & we get bad policy Dec 15, 2012
  • I’m willing 2c intelligent limits on firearms & some degree of liability 4 those that don’t secure them, but rushed policy is bad policy $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • @ross_marketment Problem: there may be fewer murders, but in the UK they have more “hot robberies” than we do; robbers have more 2fear in US Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @trmcloughlin What we don’t know is how many lives have been saved by firearms. We don’t hear the sound of one hand clapping. #2ndorder Dec 15, 2012
  • No doubt; I have 8 kids; 5 adopted – I feel sorry 4 the parents; grief RT @ross_marketment: and for the minority as well. 26 today Dec 15, 2012
  • And we get salvation through a plethora of ineffective statutes RT @JamesMarsh79: our society demands intervention $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @ross_marketment I don’t own a gun, probably nevr will. I serve the Prince of Peace. I know that a few people ruin freedom 4 the majority Dec 15, 2012
  • So after a really ugly event like the killing of 6-7 year olds, we need to mourn, leave policy decisions 4 a calmer time, weighing +s/-s $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • 2 many people react 2 an ugly event saying, “This must never, Never, NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN!!” w/o considering what 2nd order effects will b $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • After 9/11, we made many policy decisions in haste that left us less free. Part of being a free culture –> we must accept some disasters $$ Dec 15, 2012

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong: Former HP CEO Shifts Blame for Autonomy Deal to Chairman http://t.co/p8xH0BoR No deal can get done w/o sponsorship of the CEO $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: As Dollar Loses Reserve Status Central Banks Diversify http://t.co/lfq2UGNW Bad as the $$ is, no other currency is as investable $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: Canadian Exceptionalism in Compensation http://t.co/Q6VDqm5P France is no exemplar in paying bureaucrats a lot of $$ a % of GDP Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: Our Hero, Ben Bernanke: Why Central Bankers (Not Politicians) Are Saving the Global Economy http://t.co/BawbK79N First do no harm $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: Mozilo Unbowed Says Countrywide Was ?World-Class Company? http://t.co/6pzQQyos Big, yes, but horrible underwriting, 2much debt $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: Bernanke Wields New Tools to Reduce Unemployment Rate http://t.co/M3GXZomh No new tools, only wishful thinking $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Wrong: Oil at $60 or $120 Doesn?t Prevent US Supplanting Saudi Arabia http://t.co/sWB1CqEa Decay curve 4 fracking means short advantage $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Wrong: Krugman, Krauthammer and Their Implied Authors http://t.co/seOKbPdg U r what u write; Just another aspect of your personality $$ Dec 11, 2012

 

Companies

 

  • And with that, I sign off Twitter 4 the evening (aside from robotic posts). One note b4 I go, $HPQ has not filed its 10-K @ its due date. $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • Apple Falls as UBS Projects Growth Slowdown http://t.co/f7Gi1Wwm Size is an enemy of growth. Channel check indicates slowdown 4 $AAPL $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Hurd was an accounting manipulator; he boosted asset accrual items to paper over flagging profitability. $$ http://t.co/ubjkmR9C $HPQ Dec 14, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Alberta-Quebec Oil Pipeline Reversal Study Done by June http://t.co/CkqBZul2 Let Quebec find its own oil then $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Refiner Phillips 66 would support U.S. crude oil exports-CEO http://t.co/lvKXNlcg More important: infrastructure 4 LNG exports FD: + $PSX Dec 14, 2012
  • Tokyo Steel Shifts Output as Power Costs Rise Post-Fukushima http://t.co/jYPrhUDA There r real costs to doing w/o nuclear power $$ Dec 14, 2012

 

Federal Reserve & Central Banks

 

  • We would b better off in the long run if the central banks of the world stopped QE & low rates & let us work out bad debts 4 a decade $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Houston We Have a Problem – The Abe Approach http://t.co/V9XlZ7pw Fed adopts an approach similar 2 the proposals of Shinzo Abe $$ #FTL Dec 13, 2012
  • Inside the Risky Bets of Central Banks http://t.co/rKRwTgb9 They talk together, but the central bankers of the world share ignorance $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Biggest Opportunity Will Be Shorting the Bond Market: Dalio http://t.co/GdGIGNkQ Shorting bonds is tough b/c of negative carry $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • RAY DALIO: The US Economy Is Facing A Rare Set Of Circumstances That Will Be Bad For Markets http://t.co/7lgVsmRR Bull mkt 4 cash & gold $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • BoE’s King warns of growing currency competition http://t.co/zTsohWHT “Beggar thy neighbor” characterizes Central Bank policies globally $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • “Economists at the BIS, meanwhile, have grown more skeptical about the central bank tilt.” http://t.co/Fje7WTFI All lean the same way $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • “There is a lot we don’t understand,” said Donald Kohn, the Fed’s former vice chairman. http://t.co/Fje7WTFI You can say that again $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Most interesting move of the day was watching long Tsy bonds sell off after Fed said it would buy more http://t.co/wk4ZFhAR “Et tu, QE?” $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • PS: long a little bit of $TLT 4 me & bond clients, short a little bit of $SPY for hedged clients Dec 12, 2012
  • Love the DJ reporter asking about Fed forecast accuracy. The answer is they missed financial crisis, & have been shocked by slow recovery $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Love those reporters who assume monetary policy can do anything, & that monetary policy can change unemployment w/a snap of the fingers $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Change since September in Central tendency of Fed funds Fed forecasts 2013-2015 & longer run: 0.01%, -0.20%, -0.32%, -0.15% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Change since September in Central tendency of PCE inflation Fed forecasts 2013-2015: -0.08% -0.08% -0.05% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Change since September in Central tendency of Unemployment Fed forecasts 2013-2015: -0.27% -0.18% -0.05% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Long Treasuries not liking the Fed Statement, even w/the promise of additional buying FD: long $TLT Dec 12, 2012
  • Change in Central tendency of GDP Fed forecasts since September 2013-2015: -0.07%, -0.16%, 0.08% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Steve Liesman actually asks a decent question, wow. Dec 12, 2012
  • Here’s one year forward, one year inflation implied from TIPS over the last 40 days: http://t.co/dmzjrO9W moving up, currently @ 2.01% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Using TIPS, the figure for inflation between one and two years ahead is already 2.01%. Fed did not do its homework, again. $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Fed Seen Pumping Up Assets to $4 Trillion in New Buying http://t.co/YkZo23sl Doing same thing over & over & expecting different result $$ Dec 11, 2012

 

US Politics

 

  • How to Keep All of Huck Finn in the Classroom http://t.co/rPo5syl2 We need 2 eliminate the pseudo-intellectual “common core” standards $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Dispatches from the public pension wars: http://t.co/rvD9zmAU & http://t.co/oWgfJYGQ & http://t.co/EYvaGTJ2 End pension spiking $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • It really seems stupid to spend $151B to upgrade Acela when it only has revenue of $0.5B/year http://t.co/SNbmuXJW Slow trains r better $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Whose job is it to stop an asteroid from hitting the Earth? http://t.co/dNFyVjJR Would need at least 2 years of lead time, preferably 5 $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Big Banks Flunk OCC Risk Tests http://t.co/2f1veBS8 2big2b effectively regulated; left hand doesn’t know what right does, centipede-level $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Pimco?s Gross Says Fed Policy Means ?Free? Debt for Treasury http://t.co/d7K7wHm1 Ah, seigniorage; it is good 2b king Dec 13, 2012
  • Amtrak Plans to Replace All High-Speed Acela Trains http://t.co/SNbmuXJW I like the Acela, but I can’t see how 2 recoup $151B 4 new trains Dec 13, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Islam in Egypt’s new constitution http://t.co/0oqRk11B Kind of interesting; gives u a feel 4 different types of Islamic casuistry $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Assad Losing Syria, Say Russia and NATO http://t.co/rNeKVmhS Could Chavez & Assad lose their power in the same week? $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • EU Reaches Deal on Bank Supervisor http://t.co/YNFGjnjk A lot of the details have 2b worked out; will b interesting 2c it in action $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • China’s Economy – weaker than we think http://t.co/FwbPNviK The math is pretty clear: rebalancing will inevitably require lower growth. $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • What Mario Monti?s Exit Tells Us About Europe?s Debt Crisis http://t.co/Ak8zB6N4 Problems r cultural; politics can’t bring prosperity $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • ?Reckless, Wrong-Headed? Pension Rules Could Savage Europe?s Economy http://t.co/OP7xDSGM Key Q: how large is the equity prem over Tsys? $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • US Schoolchildren Lag Asian Peers on Academic Tests http://t.co/PEJufbTb Phonics & going back to the “old math” would help considerably $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Argentine mom rescues hundreds of sex slaves http://t.co/9dz9sZw9 In rescuing her kidnapped daughter, gains a quest & rescues hundreds $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Germany displaces China as US Treasury’s currency villain http://t.co/7giRsoJE Germany > China; biggest source of global trade imbalance $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • BIS: Policy measures and reduced short-term risks buoyed markets http://t.co/M4k5j2Oq True now, but will make eventual tightening harder $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Honey Laundering http://t.co/x2Dl5sdr No way India is now producing so much honey. Imports from China, escapes duties, exports 2 US $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Hitler Has a Following in India http://t.co/Mksfyv6R India dislikes the British enough, & desires a strong leader to save them, & thus $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Sony Loses Science Talent as Student Resumes Go to Dairies http://t.co/dKJsVDIN Can’t obsolete food; shows caution among Japanese youth $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Carson Block Goes Short Unafraid as Chinese Gangsters Chase http://t.co/QVRFxy1i Trying 2 hide information does not change negative FCF $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • China November factory output jumps to eight-month high http://t.co/Y0HNSoqp And consumer inflation bounced off 33-month lows $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Chinese Group Buys 80% of AIG Plane Unit for $4.2B http://t.co/7YLMn3ro Good 2c $AIG simplify. I suspect the seller is the winner here $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Raging Oil Price Will Burn OPEC http://t.co/xRnGN9Pa Suggests downward pressure on oil prices. Sell high-cost E&P, maybe $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Slowing China Forex Reserves May Spell Trouble http://t.co/Bcy9KnW9 Suggests gold and Singapore $$ off of weakness & capital flight in China Dec 10, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Those Diabolical Anonymous Commenters http://t.co/hl7tGZJ1 If we have to sign our names to what we write, we will b more judicious $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • The five most disruptive technologies of 2012 http://t.co/AbNJyUSF Pretty fascinating, particularly power storage & cheap internet $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Finally did it. Joined the cult of Warren the Wonderful http://t.co/8p67b2yl Now my clients & I can get a discount @ GEICO. FD: + $BRK.B $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • America’s Milk Business in a ‘Crisis’ http://t.co/ANb8xN6d Maybe if they got rid of the growth hormones, more people would want milk $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Bloomberg Weighs Making Bid for The Financial Times http://t.co/E2r3t7hw Creating a more powerful Bloomberg, LP piece-by-piece $$ #FTW Dec 11, 2012
  • Green energy will come into existence without subsidies when crude is $200/bbl $$ http://t.co/Ufz0Kig2 Dec 11, 2012
  • They Know What You’re Shopping For http://t.co/MuBloNPi Interesting. Shows how auto dealers get data on you $$ Get “do not track” $$ Dec 08, 2012

 

US Politics & Economics

  • When the CPI is up, journos point at the bogus “core” figure. When the CPI is down, journos point at the CPI. Bias http://t.co/ODXMyo1V $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • The Myth Of Cash On The Sidelines Remains A Myth http://t.co/c6UKgvxV Also have 2 count the cash that collateralizes derivative positions $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Mortgage Rates in the US Drop to Near-Record Lows http://t.co/ciJ8b4rd Attractive credit, if u can get it; hey, rhymes and scans $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • If u r a professional bond investor, researcher would like you 2 take survey on Investor Preferences for Climate Bonds http://t.co/NP4X0iPV Dec 13, 2012
  • Beef in America is plentiful & affordable, spun out in enormous quantities @ high speeds: bonanza w/hidden dangers. http://t.co/ZhYQcleo $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • States Faulted Over Teacher Pension Shortfall http://t.co/bMnCE92x (non) Payback coming to teachers 4 negotiating 2 high pension bfts $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • How Republicans engineered a blow to Michigan’s powerful unions http://t.co/pll6Uo1r Hidden in plain sight; careful planning achieved it $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • For-Sale Signs Sprout in Heartland http://t.co/Fs7sB8b4 Likely sustainable as there are low levels of debt used to effect buys $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • I care more for how a man weighs ideas & opinions than what he weighs. http://t.co/9Cf51G9e Dec 12, 2012
  • “Ferri’s reasoning only looks easy in hindsight. I agree with Barry’s reasoning, though. Consistent w/Q-ratio, etc. $$ http://t.co/I8MPtJlh Dec 12, 2012
  • Before the public pension crisis ends, some states will remove pension protections in their constitutions, & retroactively cut benefits $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • $822,000 Worker Shows California Leads U.S. Pay Giveaway http://t.co/YfcZsCWU People r finally getting how big this problem is $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Social Security ? 2012 Results http://t.co/GgxzcD4q Social Security & Medicare get worse and worse; US Govt will not b able 2 afford them $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Hawaii Real Estate Paradise Returns With Goldman Loan http://t.co/eMAJl5IM Japanese & Korean travelers driving hotel visits $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • LOOMING CRISIS: State Budgets Soon to be Under Siege http://t.co/IwGIK90g Cash payments r curving up rapidly 4 public employee benefits $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Don’t forget the unforced give up of stricter bailout terms, made when $$ was impossible to get; $AIG deal… http://t.co/G9zwHuDV Dec 11, 2012
  • Please ignore special tax benefits given $AIG & unforced renegotiation of original deal. A loss in economic terms http://t.co/gShXtNIq $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Better Gas Mileage, Thanks to the Pentagon http://t.co/rmVBspJ0 As w/the space program, rarely we get positive spillover from Defense $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • 13 Insights From Paul Tudor Jones http://t.co/BsAnkdgS He is not only a successful hedge fund manager but a very original & clear thinker $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • $GOOG Revenues Sheltered in No-Tax Bermuda Soar 2 $10B http://t.co/az2KrBhI Shock in Hamilton as NATO blockades, seizes shell companies $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Hostess Maneuver Deprived Pension http://t.co/tyvhsCF2 Multi-employer pension trusts r weak; PBGC coverage is < single-employer plans $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Climate Treaty Hinges on Obama Making Case: Ex-Aides http://t.co/zIA5j27p Obama doesn’t want 2 waste political capital on low odds win $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic US Expansion http://t.co/e0nDazST Economic Lethargy girdles the globe, everything slowing $$ Dec 09, 2012
  • SEC’s Aguilar Warms Up to Money-Fund Overhauls http://t.co/mkLQNYAX Will destroy MMFs & won’t significantly help systemic risk $$ Dec 08, 2012

 

Retweets

  • To the main point: High speed rail is a boondoggle. Slow will do. RT @finemrespice: @AlephBlog http://t.co/UKb2A9hO Dec 14, 2012
  • Not indice, index $$ RT @weigu: Shanghai Composite Index is the 2nd-worst performing stock indice in the world this year, just after Spain. Dec 13, 2012
  • RT @randy_cass: Hint #1 that we’ve gotten conditioned to stimulus. Journalist asked question and referenced ‘$45 Billion a month’ as ‘a … Dec 13, 2012
  • Inertia RT @AsifSuria: Why does Best Buy still pay a dividend? $BBY Dec 13, 2012
  • Here’s a graph of it for those who don’t know where 2c it: http://t.co/G2P4kknG RT @TheStalwart: @AlephBlog tanked right at 8 PM ET $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • RT @Convertbond: Scary US Percentage of High Yield Bonds Trading ABOVE next Call Price 2012 40% 2011 30% 2010 22% 2009 0% 2008 5% 2007 … Dec 12, 2012
  • You said it RT @credittrader: umm benny – look at 5y5y fwds! come on man…. Dec 12, 2012
  • He can’t mean that $$ RT @davidgaffen: “I don’t think any policymaker, including the Fed, should respond to markets.” -BB 12/12/12 Dec 12, 2012
  • RT @Kathleen_Hays: CBS news guy asks Bernanke how does tying rate change to 6.5% jobless help economy? Bernanke says better communicatio … Dec 12, 2012
  • RT @LaMonicaBuzz: Where’s Chuck Barris? The Bernanke press conference is approaching the hour-long mark. Time for someone to ring a big … Dec 12, 2012
  • Muted response from $GLD, $TLT down, $SPY up/down since stmt RT @jamessaft: it is not the reporters who scare me, it is the investors $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • I assume we r both “persona non grata” there RT @cabaum1: @AlephBlog Use my name. It’ll get you a seat in the very back. Dec 12, 2012
  • You made me laugh; I applied to be in the press, they didn’t take me RT @cabaum1: @AlephBlog Be nice. He’s playing Helen Thomas. $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • RT @WildestFacts: Only 70% of people will understand the following: 2 + 2 = Fish. 3 + 3 = Eight. 7 + 7 = Triangle. RT if you get it. Dec 12, 2012
  • RT @tracyalloway: So long European aversion? Yankee bonds of European issuers now trading at pre-debt crisis levels, BarCap says: http:/ … Dec 11, 2012
  • Can’t make this up $$ RT @Alea_:[ pictures ]Mayan apocalypse: Chinese farmer builds survival pods in case of a disaster http://t.co/zWWNTWdr Dec 11, 2012
  • RT @MKTWBurton: What if the stock market is rigged? @abnormalreturns @felixsalmon @alephblog @bclund @nastrading: http://t.co/mkaMbNBE … Dec 11, 2012
  • +1 RT @fmanjoo: The University of California’s new logo is just unbelievably bad http://t.co/SFMdC22j Dec 10, 2012
  • Faith too RT @Mctaguej: It’s the growing number of collectivists among us that most concerns me. American individualism is in steep decline Dec 08, 2012

 

Replies

  • @e_d_sanders But once they are set up, most of the costs are incurred already, even the externalized ones. Dec 14, 2012
  • ‘ @JonathanProber My advice to all investors is to be wary of asset accrual items that seem too big relative to assets & profits $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • @JonathanProber I grew up on life insurance acctg, which is probably the most complex acctg of any industry, except investment banking Dec 14, 2012
  • @bundesbank Die Buba ist jetzt auf Twitter. Feiern Sie mit! Holen Sie sich eine Currywurst, Sauerkraut und ein Bier! $$ 😉 Dec 14, 2012
  • @finemrespice Living near Baltimore, idea of turning it in2a toxic nuclear waste dump could b an improvement. Better 40 miles SW, though $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • @quartznews Queen: “At least we don’t have to worry about whether this gold exists. Pity about the colonies & Fort Knox…” Dec 14, 2012
  • @Pedant_Bot This *is* Twitter, u know. Often we use less than optimal words 4 space reasons. Or, r u referrring to a blog post of mine? $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • @ritholtz I’m agreeing w/u, Barry – there is less cash available 2b invested than most think, b/c much of it is encumbered Dec 14, 2012
  • @ReformedBroker Thanks, Josh. You have my respect; it’s tough to put out quality content w/frequency, variety & regularity Dec 13, 2012
  • @SimoneFoxman “At least we don’t have to worry about whether this gold exists. Pity about the colonies & Fort Knox…” Dec 13, 2012
  • @finemrespice Got me to laugh. Yeh, hedge funds r the financial equivalent 2 alchemists. Let them propose alternative math, c who buys it $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • @finemrespice Alas, but mathematics is a tough foe. Let alternative mathematics try to make $$ by outcompeting traditional math 😉 Dec 13, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Not much in today’s trading… why, is something happening in Asia? Dec 13, 2012
  • @LaurenYoung The saints will laugh, the sinners will cry http://t.co/5cwaOtbH Dec 13, 2012
  • ‘ @Healey_trades I think the market is adjusting to the idea of higher future inflation, the Fed will not be able to maintain its policy $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial I’ve never agreed with that — that would be why median CPI or trimmed mean CPI would be preferred Dec 12, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial And if you use chained CPI vs chained PCE, they are virtually the same over the last 10 years Dec 12, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial Over the last 10 years that would shave 0.2% off CPI inflation Dec 12, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial I understand that Fed uses PCE $ TIPS r CPI-based, but there are no objective forward measures for PCE Dec 12, 2012
  • @cate_long Here’s 1-yr forward, 1-yr inflation implied from TIPS over the last 40 days: http://t.co/dmzjrO9W moving up, currently @ 2.01% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • @cate_long Here’s a graph for that: http://t.co/dmzjrO9W Dec 12, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Ready at the criticism turret! Dec 12, 2012
  • ‘ @Kevin_Holloway As the market has run, $$ has grown, approaching max cash limit; 1.2x BV $BRK.B is below; well-run, difficult to replicate Dec 12, 2012
  • @WildestFacts 70% sounds high, but the process is simple, flip one and paste over the other for a picture Dec 12, 2012
  • “4 of 6 companies graphed are housing related. $CLGX is not an insurer. Maybe you need to revise?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/vTGZv3i2 $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Many thanks to my 6000th Twitter follower @syedasyraf4 . Wherever you are, I pray things go well for you. Dec 09, 2012
  • ‘ @muffiehbs05 @carney I guess you’re right, Muffie, much more than a fund http://t.co/78kXw5Rf A home 4 student & alumni moral decay $$ Dec 08, 2012
  • .@historysquared The slow corruption of the last set of strong balance sheets in the US. Leverage is being substituted for organic growth $$ Dec 08, 2012

FWIW

 

  • My week on twitter: 57 retweets received, 1 new listings, 54 new followers, 65 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Dec 13, 2012

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Eurozone

 

  • Depression Deepens Greek Middle Class Despair With Crime http://t.co/PlMwTLpw They need to leave the euro & end early retirement $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Global Shipping Industry?s Troubles R Threat for Biggest German Banks http://t.co/ZKojm5iZ During good times bankers forget cyclicality $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • All recent French Presidents are good examples of why the power of the office should be weakened & term shortened http://t.co/NbtxCyJY $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Don?t Tax Our Wine Irish Cry as Austerity Finds Threshold http://t.co/HdL8bkLI Alcohol exists 2 prevent the Irish from ruling the world $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Paris Faces Darkness as City Set for Illumination Ban http://t.co/sbmoaBEv French politicians r the worst enemies France has $$ #inthedark Dec 05, 2012
  • Paulson Said to Blame Bet Against Europe4 Most of Loss http://t.co/AHDHtUNK Betting on disaster is tough; getting timing right tougher $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Merkel’s euro push leaves E. Germany out in the cold http://t.co/3T9Yw6Uu Angela faces weakness in E. Germany politically & economically $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • France Sexy No More for Entrepreneurs Escaping Hollande http://t.co/S8OVxgRu The “invisible foot” opposes increasing taxes in France $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Central Banking

 

  • Fed Exit Plan May Be Redrawn as Assets Near $3 Trillion http://t.co/u4Ek0vbc The Fed will never significantly shrink its balance sheet $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Bernanke Cliff Analogy Overstates Immediate Economic Harm http://t.co/dSQxcMtP After the cliff, 2014 will be a good year, &2015 better $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • At Press Conference After ECB Interest Rate Decision, Draghi Faces Frustrations & Mistrust http://t.co/nzpJhUE3 No magic, only illusions $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • How canceling central banks? holdings of government debt could be a useful thing http://t.co/mOdKposd I don’t agree, but worth reading $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Fed holds lenders’ feet to the fire on mortgages http://t.co/PpeKIjQm Simple: absence of competition w/the lack of shadow banking $$ Dec 04, 2012

 

US Politics

 

  • Fannie and Freddie Are Not Piggy Banks http://t.co/8H5VVXg2 Tosh, Congress loves a slush fund, Fed’l Financing Bank, FHA, Ag credit sys $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Obama?s Tax Increases Will Find the Middle Class http://t.co/8ai0z1ID @cabaum1 After all, that is where most of the income 2 tax is $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Push to Curb Union Power Advances in Michigan http://t.co/Qiw3HyyU No one should be forced to join a union, or pay dues 2 get any job $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • The Real Reason Warren Buffett Should Pay More Taxes http://t.co/UOWtRvA9 Labor & Capital should b taxed @ same rate, w/no deferral $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Obama?s Tax Plan Would Spare Many Affluent Families http://t.co/C33CRpGi Why the definition of income is more important than tax rates $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Defense Industry Cuts Exceed 500,000 Workers Over Cliff http://t.co/065xIlv2 Living on the DC side of Baltimore, the effect will be big $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Greenspan Says Painless Solution to US Debt is Fantasy http://t.co/fO15WZ1P This is one of the two times per day for this stopped clock $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Medicare is unsustainable in current form http://t.co/WNoFEsKo “As it stands now, Medicare cannot keep its promises 2future seniors” $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Deck the Halls with Macro Follies http://t.co/7gGKMN4R A new video from the guy who brought you Keynes vs. Hayek at EconStories.tv $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Sallie Krawcheck should not run the SEC http://t.co/AECw2pun Her prior career does not suggest that she would be a good regulator $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Elizabeth Warren would bring real smarts to the position. Now if we can find spots for Barofsky and Kauffman. http://t.co/sTf2Piy8 Dec 05, 2012
  • Wrong: Five States 2Increase Class Time in Some Schools http://t.co/BNY4Twj4 Little correlation btw class time & educational progress $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Republicans Reprise 2011 Debt-Limit Threat in Cliff Talks http://t.co/njnFXhVO This is not a 2-player game but a 3-player game: t-party $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Obama Bets Re-Election Gave Him Power to Win Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/1hA1Xn4j Think this idea is overplayed; players same now as b4 $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • +1 We need genuine capitalists, & not defenders of Wall Street & big business @ the SEC $$ @davidgaffen @footnoted @nminow @Reuters Dec 03, 2012

 

Pensions

 

  • Benefits Leader Reins In 401(k)s http://t.co/Z8foHZLK $IBM defers 401(k) match 2 yearend; if u leave early, except retiring, u lose $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Baby boomers need annuity simplicity http://t.co/34gJlJKA SPIAs r good annuities don’t sell b/c agents never earn another commission $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Milwaukee task force studies changes to pension system http://t.co/GHBuGNGf Will raise retirement ages & lower the multipliers 4 svc yrs $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Officials call pension reforms a must http://t.co/64PzD8UI Kentucky reduces future pension benefits; good 4 taxpayers, bad 4 employees $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Other

 

  • #FF @Fullcarry @KidDynamiteBlog @Convertbond @foxjust @EconOfContempt @GregorMacdonald @edwardnh @MatthewPhillips @srussolillo $$ Dec 08, 2012
  • To Quote Thomas Jefferson, ‘I Never Actually Said That’ http://t.co/mA9MzDbb Yogi Berra, “I never said most of the things I said.” $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • Big Test at Johns Hopkins (biz school) http://t.co/fbf5FeKP Scuttlebutt is that it is not doing so well w/their Int’l student focus $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • http://t.co/0fOBmunB “[Ransomware] is the new Nigerian email scam,? Mr Haley said. ?We?ll be talking about this for the next two years.? $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • The Insourcing Boom http://t.co/h67gWIA3 Can improve labor costs, morale, R&D, product quality, time to market. Wave of the future $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • My week on twitter: 42 retweets received, 3 new listings, 26 new followers, 65 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Dec 06, 2012
  • Dial-a-maid, get-a-slave in middle class India http://t.co/LRlkfbTg No, slavery is not dead yet & women bear the brunt of it $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Hospital Incentives Help Babies Determine Own Birth Dates http://t.co/rAKVBv4X Washington State finds a way 2reduce caesarean-sections $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • While at RealMoney, Steve Smith & I tried 2 get Lenny Dykstra 2 explain the risks of his strategies; he never responded http://t.co/ynHZJgoa Dec 05, 2012
  • Deere Gets the Wright Stuff http://t.co/88RdyGkb My friend Bill Wright is now making standing lawn mowers 4 $DE ; both firms benefit $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Warren?s Way http://t.co/cW8OQQq4 I respect Buffett a lot, but he is a hypocrite on taxes. Pay off the DTL, Sell $BRK shares, pay a div $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Online Classes Mean No Dorm, Gym or Debt http://t.co/gPttIwpJ My wife thinks there is room 4a quality college w/o the frills $$ #worthatry Dec 03, 2012
  • Not news: Burying the “Fed model” http://t.co/BTCVsigi Have 2 decompose in2 real rates & inflation expectations. Result known since 1994 $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Wall Street finds a foreign detour around U.S. derivatives rules http://t.co/4Ypf0atI Do foreign biz through their London subs $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • A Free-Market Fix for the Copyright Racket http://t.co/RDPofMPk Keep copyright protections, but limit them to 28 years $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Fixed Income

?

  • Despite Risks, Investors Just Can’t Quit US Treasurys [sic] http://t.co/AefCG5rw One of the better deflation hedges out there $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Talking Macro, Fixed Income, & the Strategic Alpha Bond Fund w/Loomis Sayles? Matt Eagan http://t.co/PTWJKX22 w/ @DavidSchawel Well done $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • California moves toward open source ratings for city bonds http://t.co/hn8GCnMa Researcher makes case here: http://t.co/r04PVuWA $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Yield-Starved Investors Hoarding EM Bonds http://t.co/kvShvcx5 There is yield & their govts r running finances more orthodox way $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • We Were Stunned By The Brand New Patent That’s Been Awarded To Bill Gross http://t.co/zYuLDREM Easy ideas should not be patentable $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Women analysts dominate muniland http://t.co/dQwgDg5U Funny, but when I was a corporate bond mgr, most of my analysts were bright ladies $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • BlackRock’s new bond plan http://t.co/rdUd5zmG $BLK does a kind of structuring of covenants (buyer’s due diligence) & coinvests in volume $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Scrounging for Income http://t.co/hfFtkhm4 Okay advice, but if you can reduce need 4 income or harvest capital gains would b better $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Leveraged loans return 0.31% in November; YTD return is 8.8% http://t.co/loDwDKW9 Interesting part of article is strength of CLO bid $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • The Great Yield Gamble http://t.co/fRspStAj When risk-free rate is being used as a policy tool, it is harder 2 make rational choices $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Panasonic Swings Ruin Funds? Appetite for BBB Debt http://t.co/w36bv9nQ No notes rated <BBB+ by Japanese assessors offered in November $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • High Yield Exhaustion http://t.co/zLSy4GaC High yield feels tired between high supply, and potentially weakening demand $$ Dec 03, 2012

Rest of the World

 

  • China listings may soon flee US, expert says http://t.co/0EuxyoAC I usually don’t like when foreign listings leave; exception: China $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Sellers in Toronto, Vancouver just say no as housing markets sink http://t.co/HUTgOVnh Feels like the US in late 2006 $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Russia’s problem is not a petrified Soviet economics but corrupt politics impeding growth w/o fully blocking it $$ http://t.co/YL7QGR9j Dec 05, 2012
  • Top US Firms Are Cash-Rich Abroad, Cash-Poor at Home http://t.co/EZcwLITM Buy foreign businesses & hire clever transfer pricing accts $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Are We Watching Another North American Financial Crisis Unfold? http://t.co/BmwRzIPp Canadian taxpayers r on the hook for >C$1T in mtges $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Shangai broken dreams – changing gear? http://t.co/nWX3jIuz Argues Chinese mkt has broken support, but might have value 2 locals that dig $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Companies

 

  • Cook Says Lives Enriched Matters More Than Money Made http://t.co/cJ7XWQkM Summary & Manufacturing Macs in US http://t.co/hyvQAdRB $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Apple?s Halo Cracked http://t.co/EHrFjZGG $AAPL ‘s valuation requires that their products remain competitive for a long time to come $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Banks book record profits off Fannie and Freddie http://t.co/Z4Ej4Zlu It’s more that much origination capacity is gone -> wide spreads $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Freeport to Buy Plains, McMoRan for $9 Billion http://t.co/avB6cIII I prefer resource extraction firms to be focused, not diversified $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • Steak Price Rising as Cattle Seen 20% Higher at JBS http://t.co/58h0CsHp Combination of loose $$ policy & high feed prices from weather Dec 05, 2012
  • That fiscal cliff? $DOW Chemical says China’s a bigger worry http://t.co/H1viDTWR Not a good sign for commodity chemical producers $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Trucks — Boats – Planes – Trains http://t.co/vFirg2PB Transports are hinting at more economic weakness $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • Diamonds Dug in Gusty Arctic Too Remote for Diesel Fuel http://t.co/AZiGApP4 How mining companies generate power in remote areas $$ #wow Dec 03, 2012

 

Insurers

 

  • Insurers’ Sandy Claims Estimates Show No Long-Term Damage http://t.co/HJq6Ufmk Prudent insurance underwriters & investors bounce back $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • Re: Principles based stat reserving. As a life actuary, I wonder what will happen to old blocks of biz that get reinsured 2 get new acctg $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Insurers Add Reserve Power http://t.co/5X4htlOh Move 2 principles-based reserving 4 Stat acctg is a mistake; lower margin of safety $$ Dec 03, 2012

 

Retweets

 

  • Kind of fitting that $UBS discovered it $$ RT @graemehein: Swiss counter-intel is making Canada look good! http://t.co/394i35mW Dec 04, 2012
  • OTOH, many other schools r athletic progs glued2 educ charity $$ RT @carney: Is Harvard really just a giant hedge fund? http://t.co/9AgVniPZ Dec 07, 2012
  • I believe it has a small educational charity attached $$ RT @carney: Is Harvard really just a giant hedge fund? http://t.co/9AgVniPZ Dec 07, 2012
  • I think Andrea encourages him to get fresh air now & then $$ RT @ecchymosis2009: Who let him out of his crypt? Dec 06, 2012
  • Barofsky 4 SEC Chair RT @matthewstoller: Important statements from @neilbarofsky on how to reform the SEC. http://t.co/Tty50eQi $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • +1 Good news $$ RT @cate_long: .@matthewstoller reporting that Sallie Krawcheck seems to have been knocked out of the running as head of SEC Dec 06, 2012
  • Probably correct $$ RT @munilass: CalPERS likely 2 lose next court battle, San Bernardino bankruptcy observers predict http://t.co/QxsiiNUD Dec 05, 2012
  • You got it RT @James_Karn: @AlephBlog Don’t forget ethanol policy as a factor in high feed prices. Dec 05, 2012
  • UN = Useless Nations $$ RT @marykissel: Debacle-in-the-making: @UN takes a step toward regulating the #Internet http://t.co/tngedHds Dec 05, 2012
  • +1 true $$ RT @LorcanRK: congrats to whoever is running the @euromoney account these days. Has completely transformed a semi-dormant feed. Dec 04, 2012
  • RT @ritholtz: ENOUGH ALREADY! I propose the hashmark #CLIFFHYPE to mark conversations about the excess hype regarding the so called Fis … Dec 04, 2012
  • Incongruous, huh? Or maybe it takes a thief… $$ RT @felixsalmon: Bob Merton on a financial stability committee??? http://t.co/tnJvIOIJ Dec 03, 2012
  • Yes, & I lost some $$ on it last year RT @GaelicTorus: @AlephBlog panasonic is a value trap, imo $PC Dec 03, 2012
  • +1 For sure RT @footnoted: @joshuademasi @AlephBlog Well, nobody would accuse me of being a defender. That’s for sure. Dec 03, 2012
  • +1 RT @neilbarofsky: The more things change…Good for @benlawsky for voting no: New Rules for Life Insurers http://t.co/gVW1Zl80 $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • Had good ideas in 2001 now jumps shark $$ RT @LDrogen: Taleb should have quit while he was ahead, this is just nonsense http://t.co/rRPrCLLT Dec 02, 2012

 

Replies

 

  • @Ryknow16 Not yet.. I expect the Fed to overdo it until it is obvious that they have to shift & then some; when shift comes it will b brutal Dec 08, 2012
  • “Thanks for writing this… this will be an important signal when the Fed finally hints at tightening,” David_Merkel http://t.co/AXbhvTBv $$ Dec 08, 2012
  • @DividendMaster Granted, but I have a rule of thumb: Removal of policy accommodation always is tougher than the Fed claims & imagines $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • @DavidSchawel You are welcome. Excellent interview & ideas. I also follow Pettis & Lacy Hunt — I’m an information hound $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein It was a good indicator, but now it is used for policy purposes in Operation Twist, making it useless as an indicator now. $$ Dec 07, 2012
  • “Challenge for Apple is perpetuating successful innovation. Difficult to continually get high ROEs?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/WfTxOVbJ $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • @neilbarofsky I have a compromise proposal on MMFs that gives everyone 90% of what they want. Can I show it to you? http://t.co/uTaSQoIv Dec 07, 2012
  • @DoubleDeuce Women I was speaking of were investment analysts, not actuaries, but u r right there also; famale actuaries tend 2b junior $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • @USTreasury Don’t care if this came from McConnell or Paul Krugman. The executive is *not* supposed to have any power over spending. Dumb $$ Dec 06, 2012
  • @DoubleDeuce Yo, friend. Men tend to be better at the risk-return tradeoff. Women tend to be better at estimating risk. Dec 06, 2012
  • @ivorroy I won’t live longer; eating meat in moderation is good 4u, &enjoying your life prolongs life far more than avoiding a few toxins $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • @Dan_Dicker Wrote a piece similar 2your “Embrace the Cliff” http://t.co/pseXvwlP last June. “Might not be so Bad” http://t.co/pYICXUOq $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • @cate_long I have a compromise proposal b4 the SEC on MMFs. Talked w/senior lawyers there: http://t.co/OG4zyTQy Really tough 2do good $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • @cate_long Personally, I think running the SEC is beyond everyone. The $$, the politics, can’t easily fire/hire people, etc. Dec 05, 2012
  • @cate_long Only be Chairman of the SEC. Only difficulties r managing the politics & incompetence. I would be willing 2 help. Dec 05, 2012
  • @rszbt Maybe we should nominate Cate Long. never reada bad article from her. Dec 05, 2012
  • @CondorOptions Ted Kauffman, Sheila Bair, Neil Barofsky, (giggle) Harry Markopolous, David Merkel (who?), Jack Ciesielski, I have more $$ Dec 05, 2012
  • @nelson3748 I expect nonsense from academics. Dec 05, 2012
  • @nelson3748 How has she been a disaster for consumer banking, and local and regional banks? Many of her proposal seem reasonable. Dec 05, 2012
  • @AppFlyer Yes, I heard about that… thought it was more dumb than lying… it was lying, but I didn’t see how she would gain from it. Dec 05, 2012
  • @AppFlyer Maybe I’m out of it. How is she a liar & a cheat? Links welcome. Dec 05, 2012
  • ‘ @StockRealist Hello from another member of the penny stock truth squad. Article of mine: http://t.co/jJ79L4Ac Got $IMNG today #spitspit $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • .@drVTC It’s more what u do w/whatever time u spend w/kids, than the amount of time. I agree, tho; character is the most important factor $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • @paulvieira Typically u hear a few pops b4 the tree falls; inn the US that was mid-2007 $$ Dec 04, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein Makes sense, thanks Dec 04, 2012
  • @buzzfeedben What r u looking for from someone to run your possible business vertical? I know of a lot of talent in financial writing… Dec 04, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein your latest piece deals w/correlations — how well do the betas match up? Dec 04, 2012
  • @Fechtmeyer Thanks, I get it now. But technology is creative destruction, while Wall Street’s risk control methods were just wrong. $$ Dec 03, 2012
  • @Fechtmeyer SV? WS? Dec 03, 2012
  • @LDrogen “They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither safety nor liberty.” Ben Franklin $$ Dec 02, 2012
  • @kyles09 That is, how much profit there is in the deal 4 the originator, whether in % upfront, or in the excess interest strip Dec 02, 2012
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Credit Markets

 

  • Credit Suisse Raises $802M CLO; Prudential Closes Fund http://t.co/RbXDgtPU Watch arb from creation of CDOs & CLOs: clue 2 bond rally end Dec 01, 2012
  • Caisse Thinks Bond Party Is Over? http://t.co/j6lWdJjA Shifting $$ from bonds 2 infrastructure; usually good though liquidity is underpriced Dec 01, 2012
  • Bond Yields May Fall Short of Corporate Pension Fund Needshttp://on.barrons.com/VkWekV Bonds in DB plans r4 risk reduction not just yield $$ Dec 01, 2012
  • My point is that it is difficult to tell whether we will be getting inflation or deflation. My bond portfolios are barbelled: long &short $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Investors Unprepared for Bond Danger, BlackRock?s Rosenberg Says http://t.co/56kv1CrS B wary of owning 2 much or 2 little long bonds $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Safe or junk, bonds in bubble trouble http://t.co/Nd5iEYPy Fuss told the summit in New York there was evidence of “a spread bubble” $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Overnight Rates Surge in Fed?s Operation Twist http://t.co/xwvKCPGb Large supply of short Treasuries raises Repo rates over LIBOR $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Muni Markets and Pensions

 

  • Bankruptcy threat back on the table in Pennsylvania city as filing ban ends http://t.co/NgMGQs2Z Will b tough to stiff muni bondholders $$ Dec 01, 2012
  • Calpers Seeks to Sue San Bernardino Over Pension Payments http://t.co/xv0OqQV9 Will have2show a place in CA law/constitution reqrng pmt $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Fierce Debt Puts Pensions at Risk in Puerto Rico http://t.co/w2oGk8YW Future curse: May u starve like a Puerto Rican pensioner! Uh, yeh $$ Nov 27, 2012
  • Proponents of pension reform face steep hurdles http://t.co/n2AYvghT Choose: raise taxes, reduce services, attempt constitutional change $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • San Bernardino?s ?Toxic Politics? Snarl Calpers Debt http://t.co/N4YWPCTD Be careful what you put into your city’s Charter. $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • The Great 2012 Cashout http://t.co/i4lZvD0c Special dividends r coming fast & furious; last call 4 low tax rates; next stop: Caymans $$ Dec 01, 2012
  • Wells Fargo CEO: ‘Bad players are gone’ from finance http://t.co/AwSGY8gz FD: + $WFC | Sadly, false. There may be fewer, but not all gone $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Nontraded BDC sales on a tear despite closing of first fund http://t.co/ML7oVkIu Poison, beware. BDCs are bad enough w/o the illiquidity $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Beware the Smart Money: Hedge Funds Issue Sell Signal http://t.co/HXBKD5ZO When fast money is “all in” it just takes a jolt2make mkt fall $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Home Equity Loans Make Comeback Fueling US Spending http://t.co/3WULRzOO We never learn, we never learn, we never learn, we never learn $$ Nov 27, 2012
  • Private-Equity Managers Make Moves as Tax Increases Near http://t.co/eKKsH5w6 refinancing investments, accelerating gains, etc. $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • The Faustian Bargain between States and Banks http://t.co/gGUHGWIa I lend 2u, u lend 2me. I lend 2u, u lend 2me. What could go wrong? $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • The Manufacturing Boom You Won’t Notice http://t.co/R62nFiae Productivity continues 2 improve -> more mfg in US, but not more mfg jobs $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • Overlooking Overvaluation http://t.co/nWfA1KMe Hussman interacts w/long-term valuation measures. He finds the market overvalued $$ #whatelse Nov 26, 2012
  • Everything You Know About Investing is Wrong http://t.co/v8wAYPg6 Single-vble measures of valuation fail in short-run, some in long-run $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • The prior BB article is a little deceptive, because regulated entities use them under regulation. Many r quite safe, like auto ABS, etc. $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • Shadow Banking Grows to $67 Trillion Industry, Regulators Say http://t.co/houN2uhM Many are SPV securities held by banks & ins cos $$ Nov 24, 2012

 

Companies

 

  • How a desperate HP suspended disbelief for Autonomy deal http://t.co/qv1vIWcQ If $HPQ had been focused on organic growth, wouldnta happened Nov 30, 2012
  • Berkshire Hathaway, CaixaBank Agree to Reinsurance Deal http://t.co/RDQqXhMl Berky hasn’t done well w/Life Re — I would be cautious $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Google Has Officially Eaten the Newspaper Industry http://t.co/TGqEWK7T $GOOG now has more advertising revenue than all print media $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Investors Demand CEO Face Time http://t.co/4CPugaAV CEO griping about time spent on investors is wrong; a good CEO is Mr. Outside $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Global Steel Industry Faces Capacity Glut http://t.co/DhU7BaWa We need to see 20% of the steel industry fail b4 buying steel stocks $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Lehman Sells Archstone in Deal Worth $6.5B http://t.co/f2V5K7tk Losses taken; Lehman more liquid; Sam Zell lives 2 gravedance $$ $EQR $AVB Nov 27, 2012
  • $AMZN ‘s bond offering will b a bit of a “museum piece.” I.e. unusual issuer unlikely to issue more; should get tight deal spreads $$ yld<2% Nov 26, 2012
  • $ICOA Says $GOOG Didn’t Acquire the Company http://t.co/y3XXagL7 Whoever put out the press release will be an easy target 4 the SEC $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • France to ArcelorMittal: if you don?t like losing money, get out of France http://t.co/gYQ31NOk Invisible foot punishes France 4 bad policy Nov 26, 2012
  • Flowers Foods Sizes Up Hostess http://t.co/4DYwu6p6 Might buy brands, marketing arrangements, factories., etc. Won’t hire unions $$ $FLO Nov 26, 2012

 

Central Banking

 

  • Japan?s Ill-Fated Experiment With Money Doctoring http://t.co/OgCSJ4KB Interesting tale of Asia conquest; what does it imply 4 the US? $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • The death of volatility? http://t.co/04RNO7z1 “Central bank puts have done a great job of removing tail risks.” for now h/t: @izakaminska Nov 29, 2012
  • When the Credit Transmission Mechanism Breaks? http://t.co/HvCddUDh While we r delevering monetary policy won’t work well. h/t: @pragcap $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • The Indiana Jones economy http://t.co/GqjOk5Ql @izakaminska explains how economic transmission mechanisms r short-circuited by hoarding $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Brazil real jumps as central bank eclipses Mantega http://t.co/xUpU6tE2 Loose developed mkt $$ polcy forces choice: exports or inflation? $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Politics & Policy

 

  • Mortgage interest rate tax deduction scores political points ? but little else http://t.co/xiaLfUkT Limit to $20K of interest $$ @hnmoore Nov 30, 2012
  • IMNSHO, the PPACA was designed to destroy the parts of the US health care system that worked well, in order 2 move 2a single-payer system $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Unaffordable Cost Seen for Some Under Affordable Care Act http://t.co/iEPsMhdh When this law goes live in 2014, people will hate it $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • In D.C., Social-Media Surveillance Pays Off http://t.co/XkLcZ3nm What they glean from social media aids service to constituents $$ Nov 29, 2012
  • 10 Things the SEC Won’t Tell You http://t.co/QOfbkvhC 11) U r your own best defense; we can’t help u much if u r stupid, b skeptical $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Going to college is not of itself a good thing economically. You have to choose something that will pay off if you dare borrow money $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Federal Student Lending Swells http://t.co/Wvi2d6vT We need to eliminate student loans. They do more harm than good. $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Time running out on debt ceiling http://t.co/iZ6BLqdP Follows months behind the “fiscal cliff.” Will probably cause as much angst. $$ Nov 27, 2012
  • “Y is the burden of proof on those who want 2 return 2 the proven statutory & regulatory approaches of the past?” http://t.co/GJuNCS1X $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • Disabled parents face bias, loss of kids: report http://t.co/SvW3g3Xn Found this 2b disturbing; govt should avoid meddling w/families $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • A Minimum Tax for the Wealthy http://t.co/THiT0YGK Let Warren pay tax on his deferred gains in $BRK.A shares, & pay the large DTL also $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • China?s over-investment problem http://t.co/WJVLvnMD IMF working paper says what China skeptics have said for years: 2 much investment $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • China Mafia-Style Hack Attack Drives California Firm to Brink http://t.co/cmnb4qco Chinese hackers steal software & hack software firm $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • A UK Exit From EU Offers No Promise of Better Fortunes http://t.co/TBmi6as7 EU is a failed experiment; Y should the UK continue there? $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • French jobless total hits 14-yr high http://t.co/NYdjc6Rs Francois Hollande getting costly economics lessons, paid4 by the French people $$ Nov 27, 2012
  • China Wage Gains Hurt by Weaker Profit Damp Consumption http://t.co/tESRToBZ Malinvestment leads2 lower profits, then wages can’t grow $$ Nov 27, 2012
  • China?s nemesis: bribes, banquets and backslapping http://t.co/D7V7yF06 Difficult 2 develop highly when rule of law is not followed $$ Nov 26, 2012

?? Sovereign CDS trading plummets http://t.co/jKBj47bv Will eventually lead discretionary holders to lighten sovereign positions $$ Nov 26, 2012

  • Egyptian Army allowed Morsi in2 power 2 avoid riots & allow him 2 mess up, so that Egyptians would support military rule again. US wins 2 $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong: Misconceptions 101: Why College Costs Aren?t Soaring http://t.co/nZWYKQSQ Doesn’t square w/the rise in delinquent student loans $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Wrong: Obama To Meet Romney Tomorrow Amid Fiscal Cliff Talks http://t.co/2VfO7Fxz Doesn’t Obama realize Romney has no power in the GOP? $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Wrong: Fed’s Easing Yields Hidden Benefit http://t.co/6bJejPB1 1994 is not 2013. The banks/financials/households were in good shape $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Taleb Mishandles Fragility http://t.co/qIGbLQHl Taleb needs new ideas, but does not perceive that. He is mired in the past. $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • Russell Napier’s “Most Important Chart In The World” http://t.co/XYKdagZm While we’re at it let’s reprise the Nikkei vs Nasdaq charts $$ Nov 28, 2012

 

Other

 

  • THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL [SLIDE DECK] http://t.co/RabKP5EC Good but long piece from BI on the future of digital media $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Alleged Insider Group Includes Website Editor http://t.co/Llnmz2aE In general insider info is a curse to the upright; ties your hands $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Texas Feral Hog Wrecks Mark Losing Battle With Animals http://t.co/TMPpFNh6 This is Texas, no one said anything about losing. $$ Nov 29, 2012
  • He Carries On, She Likes to Check http://t.co/4D1Fd5Td Men and women are different when they fly. This explains it. $$ Nov 29, 2012
  • . @izakaminska is a favorite writer of mine. She helps me with the nuances of tightly nested markets, finding the variable that is valuable Nov 29, 2012
  • American Housing Casino Revives After Big Drop: Mortgages http://t.co/lZmmHo9s Setting up conditions for the naive 2 lose again $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • FHA?s Biggest Loser: No-Money-Down Mortgages http://t.co/bJgwTdtV Surprise! Lend2 someone w/nothing 2 lose & they default a lot more $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

Teaching Math

 

  • Helping Parents Score on the Homework Front http://t.co/7FPGjA0n 6-yr olds should not be doing fractions. Parents aren’t the problem $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • The push to think abstractly about math does not work w/kids. You can start with girls around 13, boys around 14; misguided idealism $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • Children learn math best through drill, giving way to problem-solving, giving way to algebra (abstraction), further abstraction Calculus Nov 26, 2012
  • A New Kind of Problem: The Common Core Math Standards http://t.co/VGxxQGqr This is as bad as the “New Math” of the 1960s; utterly idiotic $$ Nov 26, 2012

 

 

Retweets

 

  • RT @prchovanec: Market should be rooting for China to buckle down to real econ adjustment, not hit yesterday’s growth targets with yeste … Dec 01, 2012
  • Would put the fraction at 80%, but I agree $$ RT @GMRobertson: if they are risk free they are solely for risk reduction, IG is about 2/3 so Dec 01, 2012
  • Wow! RT @prchovanec: Chinese company debt climbed to 122% of GDP in 2012 from 108% last year, highest level in 15 years http://t.co/ujKmHpTx Dec 01, 2012
  • Probably $$ RT @merrillmatter: @hnmoore I think eliminating (slowly) the 2nd home tax deduction is more palatable and possible. Nov 30, 2012
  • Blameworthy RT @grossdm: anybody ask boehner about the time he voted for massive new medicare entitlement without a funding mechanism yet? Nov 30, 2012
  • +1 RT @jonsticha: as is mine. Large bets on rates either way are a bad bet IMO Nov 30, 2012
  • RT @MuniTrader: @AlephBlog completely agree. credit risk front end, high coupon quality on the back end. pretty obvious but best way to … Nov 30, 2012
  • RT @PlanMaestro: If you don?t know enough to know about the business instantly, you won?t know enough in a month or in two? ? Buffett H/ … Nov 29, 2012
  • Needs2meet an actuary RT @TheStalwart: James Galbraith is only economist who talks about lowering the retirement age http://t.co/3srMzYX3 Nov 29, 2012
  • Recognizing reality, & verbally shading down fwd GDP $$ RT @carney: What does the beige book change from “moderate” to “modest” growth mean? Nov 28, 2012
  • Thanks, still think Eurozone should dissolve, replace w/mere free trade zone $$ RT @euromoney: Another take (quick): http://t.co/WxSquHKf Nov 28, 2012
  • RT @John_Hempton: Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a humourless git… and his publishers censor the internet. Do not buy his book… http://t.c … Nov 28, 2012
  • RT @munilass: Over 300 drone strikes and 2,500 people killed without a policy in place for when such attacks should be authorized http:/ … Nov 27, 2012
  • To the best of my knowledge, never RT @merrillmatter: do humans ever (in toto, as a society) voluntarily deleverage? Nov 27, 2012
  • Sad but true RT @AppFlyer: we never learn. Nov 27, 2012
  • That’s a big gap w/Moody’s @ Baa1 – S&P looks at balance sheet, Moody’s at Income Stmt? $$ http://t.co/C4wCNzaM RT @jonsticha: AA- @ S&P Nov 26, 2012
  • Rated Baa1 $$ RT @SimoneFoxman: RT @chrisadamsmkts: Amazon is today set to issue its first bond in more than a decade http://t.co/k03iJNi4 Nov 26, 2012
  • That’s why we homeschool RT @Nonrelatedsense: @AlephBlog pull kids from public schools if you can afford it. Nov 26, 2012
  • Bigtime $$ RT @Pawelmorski: Though anyone who thinks Canada is bubble-free might care to follow @garthturner and read his blog. Nov 26, 2012
  • Can we get the PBOC to take Yellen? $$ RT @TheStalwart: I’m definitely on board with this Central Bank poaching/global market place thing… Nov 26, 2012
  • Wow. Whoever published the original release will be an easy target $$ RT @mickwe: @AlephBlog so did all these guys http://t.co/sdUtAnlN Nov 26, 2012
  • AP goofs RT @mickwe: oh… RT @allthingsd: Google Sources: Acquisition of ICOA Wireless Are ‘Not True’ -by @ahess247 http://t.co/aGVCteBf Nov 26, 2012
  • RT @mickwe: That wifi co Google just bought for $400m? Loses $ and ‘Cash and cash equivalents were $10 at June 30, 2012’ http://t.co/PXB … Nov 26, 2012
  • Warranties r usually ripoffs RT @danielckoontz: Anybody who’s ever bot an extended warranty should read this post twice http://t.co/Ryl1AkKn Nov 25, 2012
  • A good guy; I appreciate him $$ RT @PlanMaestro: Retail Industry’s Ninja Mind Tricks http://t.co/DxJfueu4 #biases Nov 25, 2012

 

Replies

 

  • @LSilverspar as @EpicureanDeal says: “Names will be changed to protect the innocent, if we find any.” Few clean hands among banks, S&Ls, etc Nov 30, 2012
  • @Frank_McG Consider it a different way… I think it would b more likely to see a case prosecuted over insider information w/ CDS trading $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • @Frank_McG I’ve never seen a case tried for insider information on bonds, because gains r less, but technically, legally it is possible $$ Nov 30, 2012
  • Congress controls the purse strings, not the Presidency, which is too powerful as an office already. Bad… http://t.co/iGBUVgtw Nov 30, 2012
  • But when she became CEO, she could have paid the ~$100MM breakup fee. She didn’t, so she is partly to blame. http://t.co/N1xiZ0mh Nov 30, 2012
  • @ritholtz Dear Barry, is that a real plus? We have increasing delinquencies there, in the face of nondischargability in bankruptcy $$ Nov 29, 2012
  • @danielckoontz Thank you, dear friend Nov 29, 2012
  • @munilass I’m no expert, but CALPERS would have2 point @ California statutes/constitution requiring the payment http://t.co/UJpO1m3T Nov 28, 2012
  • @williamalden Not surprising. Academics & pseudo-academics r easy to co-opt. Most of the members worked in finance & r its friends $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • @Sir_Strangelove Free trade is a simple concept, & is hindered by Eurocrats. Free trade means fewer laws & regulations, not more $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • @Sir_Strangelove No. The Euro is the worst of it, but nations need to have their own unique rules to function well, not standardization $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein Funny in a way, because at the beginning of his career, his main research tools were S&P and Moody’s stock reports $$ Nov 28, 2012
  • “You have more to say than Taleb. He has not had a useful new idea in 10 years.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/sSh4Qetw $$ @reformedbroker Nov 28, 2012
  • @JayLeonard So, more like $2.0-2.5T per year Nov 27, 2012
  • @JayLeonard I think they are wrong. Other statistics I have seen indicate the amount is 8% of GDP, or $1.2T plus whatever the current gap is Nov 27, 2012
  • @carney My comment: If you pay $400M to get $500M over 30 years, the IRR is 1.45%. Better to buy a ladder of muni or corporate bonds. $$ Nov 27, 2012
  • @AppFlyer Care 2 clarify? Nov 27, 2012
  • @BryanMortenson Thanks, appreciated. Nov 27, 2012
  • @BryanMortenson Has the latest Financial Report of the US Government come out yet? Due soon. Thought I was on the email list… Nov 27, 2012
  • @carney Best place to look would be Canadian Mortgage bubble articles like this: http://t.co/w1Zk7Uhc Nov 27, 2012
  • @TheStalwart This is why I don’t follow any monthly numbers for my investing: noise/signal is high. Even a year of data, noise swamps signal Nov 27, 2012
  • @richtoscano I largely agree. My main disagreement is that the majority says rates must go up, and for some time, but they don’t $$ Nov 27, 2012
  • @richtoscano They R the best comparisons that we have 2 the current situation. I respect U, Rich, but wht wld B a better comparison? $$ Nov 27, 2012
  • “You may have a long wait. Great Depression & Modern Japan went on over 10 years.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/YlMSAU9c http://t.co/XVq1wgWO Nov 26, 2012
  • @jonsticha Used 2 manage corporates for Fidelity & Guaranty Life. I only guessed, but big rating gaps mean there r two stories told $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • @japhychron I don’t know. So many things are messed up that it is impossible to say… 🙁 Nov 26, 2012
  • “But Buffett’s tax proposal barely nicks him because he makes little income. His shadow income is?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/7zWRb4SV $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • @mickwe Basically, $GOOG bot out a penny stock, $ICOA, virtually inactive & broke. Pays a ~nickel/share for something $.0001 Friday. Huh? $$ Nov 26, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap $HOGS Tough company to analyze; doubts as to the reality of assets, financials, according to some Nov 26, 2012
  • @GaelicTorus I’ve been through the social work system five times in my life, each time to rescue a child & adopt him. I am not naive. Nov 26, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense I knew that, but I still think that Taleb had great insights in his first book, and has not grown from there. Nov 25, 2012
  • @volatilitysmile A good warning to all of us who put our opinions forthto the public. Nov 25, 2012
  • “Taleb has jumped the shark” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/QNdVE57V Sorry to be so blunt $$ Nov 25, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro I have friends working in South Sudan on that. Bigger problem is a lack of tending the fields; the culture is not aggressive $$ Nov 25, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro One of the most important initial things a developing nation can do is get agriculture right; other things tend to follow $$ Nov 25, 2012
  • @moorehn I liked Taleb’s first book a lot. His insights since then have not increased. I think he is on his 16th minute of Warhol’s fame. $$ Nov 24, 2012
  • @Convertbond Is there a link for that? Investment dept @ ins co in 93 was reaching for yield through duration @ wrong time 94 bad year 4 dur Nov 24, 2012
  • @JamesGRickards If you’re in Baltimore/DC and want to talk, I would be interested in what you are thinking. Let me know. Nov 24, 2012
  • @JamesGRickards Too speculative. We should be happy saying that we don’t know. The Bible does not speak to the issue, nor do the Fathers. Nov 24, 2012

For what it is worth

  • My week on twitter: 51 retweets received, 3 new listings, 48 new followers, 106 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Nov 29, 2012

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