Search Results for “insurers” – Page 13

The Education of an Investment Risk Manager, Part IX (The End)

Posted on 3 October 2013 by David Merkel

I’m bringing this series to a close with some odds and ends — a few links, a few stories, etc.? Here goes:

1) One day, out of the blue, the Chief Investment Officer walked into my office, which was odd, because he rarely left the executive suite, and asked something like: “We own stocks in the General Account, but not as much as we used to.? How much implicit equity exposure do we get from our variable annuities?”? The idea was this: as the equity markets go up, so does our fee stream.? If the equity market goes up or down 1%, how much does the present value of fees change?? I told him I would get back to him, but the answer was an easy one, taking only a few hours to calculate & check — the answer was a nickel, and the next day I walked up to the executive suite and told him: “If we have 20% of our liabilities in variable annuities it is the equivalent to having 1% of assets invested in the stock market.

2) This post, Why are we the Lucky Ones? could have been a post in this series.? At a small broker-dealer, all sorts of charlatans bring their ideas for financing.? The correct answer is usually no, but that conflicts with hope.? Sadly, Finacorp did not consult me on the last deal, which is part of the reason why they don’t exist now.

3) The first half of the post, The Education of a Mortgage Bond Manager, Part IX, would also fit into this series — the amount of math that went into the analysis was considerable, but the regulatory change that drove it led us to stop investing in most RMBS.

4) While working for a hedge fund, I had the opportunity to sit in on asset-liability management meetings for a bank affiliated with our firm.? I was floored by the low level of rigor in the analyses — it made me think that every bank should have at least one actuary to do analyses with the level of rigor in the insurance industry.

Now, this doesn’t apply to the big banks and investment banks because of their complexity, but even they could do well to borrow ideas from the insurance industry, and do stress testing.? Go variable by variable, on a long term basis, and ask:

At what level does this bring line profits to zero?
At what level does this bring company profits to zero?
At what level does this imperil the solvency of the company?

5) This story is a little weird.? One day my boss called me in and said, “There’s a meeting of corporate actuaries at the ACLI in DC.? You are our representative.? They will be discussing setting up an industry fund to cover losses from failures of Guaranteed Investment Contracts.? Your job is to make sure the fund is not created.”

His concern in 1996 was that it would become a black hole, and would encourage overly aggressive writing of GICs.? He didn’t want to get stuck with losses.? I told him the persuasion was not my forte, but I would do my best.? I said that my position was weak, because we were the smallest company at the table, but he said to me, “You have a voice at the table.? Use it.”

A few days later, I was on the Metroliner down to DC.? I tried to understand both sides of the argument.?? I even prayed about it.? Finally it struck me: what might be the unintended consequences from the regulators from setting up a private guaranty fund?? What might be the moral hazard implications?

At the meeting, I found one friend in the room from AIG.? We had worked together, and AIG didn’t like the idea either.? In the the early parts of the meeting it seemed like there were 10 for the industry fund, and 3 against, AIG, Principal, and us.? Not promising.? We talked through various aspects of the proposal, the three representatives taking the opposite side — it seemed like no one was changing their minds, but some opinions were weaker on the other side.

By 3PM the moderator asked for any final comments before the vote.? I raised my hand and said something like, “You have to think of the law of unintended consequences here.? What will be the impact on competition here?? What if one us, a large company decides to be more aggressive as a result of this?? What if regulators look at this as a template, and use it to ask for similar funds more broadly in life insurance??? The state guaranty funds would certainly like the industry to put even more skin into the game.”

The room went silent for a few seconds, and the vote was taken.

4-9 against creating the guaranty fund.

The moderator looked shocked.

The meeting adjourned and I went home.? The next day I told my boss we had won against hard odds.? He was in a grumpy mood so he said, “Yeah, great,” barely acknowledging me.? This is the thanks I get for trying something very hard?

6) In early 2000, I had an e-mail dialogue with Ken Fisher.? I wanted to discuss value investing with him, but he challenged me to develop my own proprietary sources of value.? Throw away the CFA syllabus, and all of the classics — look for what is not known.

So I sat down with my past trading and looked for what I did best.? What I found was that I did best buying strong companies in damaged industries.? That was the key idea that led to my eight portfolio rules. Value investing with industry rotation may be a little unusual, but it fit my new view of the world. I couldn’t always analyze changes in pricing power directly, but I could look at industries where prices had crashed, and pick through the rubble.

In Closing

My career has been odd and varied, which has led to some of the differential insights that I write about here.? In some ways, we are still beginning to understand investment risks — for example, how many saw the financial crisis coming — where a self-reinforcing boom would give way to a self-reinforcing bust?? Not many, and even I did not anticipate the intensity of the bust.? At least I didn’t own any banks, and only owned sound insurers.

Investment risk is elusive because it depends partly on the collective reactions of investors, and not on external shocks like wars, hurricanes, bad policy, etc.? We can create our own crises by moving together in packs, going from bust to boom and back again.

It is my hope after all these words that some will approach investing realizing that avoiding risks is as important as seeking returns, and sometimes, more important.? It is not what you earn, but what you keep that matters.

The Education of an Investment Risk Manager, Part VII

Posted on 1 October 2013 by David Merkel

In late 2007, I was unemployed, but had a line on a job with a minority broker-dealer who would allow me to work from home, something that I needed for family reasons at that point.? The fellow who would eventually be my boss called me and said he had a client? that needed valuation help with some trust preferred CDOs that they owned.

Wait, let’s unpack that:

CDO — Collateralized Debt Obligation.? Take a bunch of debts, throw them into a trust, and then sell participations which vary with respect to credit risk.? Risky classes get high returns if there are few losses, and lose it all if there are many losses.
Trust preferred securities are a type of junior debt.? For more information look here.

I got to work, and within four days, I had a working model, which I mentioned here.? It was:

A knockoff of the KMV model, using equity market-oriented variables to price credit.

Uncorrelated reduced discrepancy point sets for the random number generator.

A regime-switching boom-bust cycle for credit

Differing default intensities for trust preferred securities vs. CMBS vs. senior unsecured notes.

It was a total scrounge job, begging, borrowing, and grabbing resources to create a significant model.? I was really proud of it.

But will the client like the answer?? My job was to tell the truth.? The client had bought tranches originally rated single-A from three deals originated by one originator.? There had been losses in the collateral, and the rating agencies had downgraded the formerly BBB tranches, but had not touched the single-A tranches yet.? The junk classes were wiped out.

Thus they were shocked when I told them their securities were worth $20 per $100 of par.? They had them marked in the $80s.

Bank: “$20?! how can they be worth $20.? Moody’s tells us they are worth $85!”

Me: “Then sell them to Moody’s.? By the way, you do know what the last trade on these bonds was?”

B: “$5, but that was a tax-related sale.”

Me: “Yes, but it shows the desperation, and from what I have heard, Bear Stearns is having a hard time unloading it above $5.? Look, you have to get the idea that you are holding the equity in these deals now, and equity has to offer at least a 20% yield in order attract capital now.”

B: “20%?! Can’t you give us a schedule for bond is worth at varying discount rates, and let us decide what the right rate should be?”

Me: “I can do that, so long as you don’t say that I backed a return rate under 20% to the regulators.”

B: “Fine.? Produce the report.”

I wrote the report, and they chose an 11% discount rate, which corresponded to a $60 price.? As an aside, the report from Moody’s was garbage, taking prices from single-A securitizations generally, and not focusing on the long-duration junky collateral relevant to these deals.

In late 2008, amid the crisis, they came back to me and asked what I thought the bonds were worth.? Looking at the additional defaults, and that the bonds no longer paid interest to the single-A tranches, I told them $5.? There was a chance if the credit markets rallied that the bonds might be worth something, but the odds were remote — it would mean no more defaults, and in late 2008 with a lot of junior debt financial exposure, that wasn’t likely.

They never talked to me again.? The bonds never paid a dime again.? I didn’t get paid for running my models a second time.

The bank wrote down the losses one more time, and another time, etc.? How do you eat an elephant?? One bite at a time.? It did not comply well with GAAP, and eventually the bank sold itself to another bank in its area, for a considerably lower price than when they first talked to me.

So what are the lessons here?

Ethics matter.? Don’t sign off on an analysis to make a buck if the assumptions are wrong.
Run your bank in such a way that you can take the hit, rather than spreading the losses over time.? (Like P&C reinsurers did during the 1980s.)? But that’s not how GAAP works, and the CEO & CFO had to sign off on Sarbox.
A model is only as good as the client’s willingness to use it.? There are lots of charlatans willing to provide bogus analyses — but if you use them, you know that you are committing fraud.
Beware of firms that won’t accept bad news.

I don’t know.? Wait, yes, I do know — I just don’t like it.? This is a reason to be skeptical of companies that are flexible in their accounting, and that means most financials.? So be wary, particularly when financials are near or in the “bust” phase — when the credit markets sour.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 21 September 2013 by David Merkel

Monetary Policy

Buffett Calls Fed History?s Greatest Hedge Fund http://t.co/vToZwL7D21 Buffett great on practical business economics, lousy on politics $$ Sep 21, 2013
Bernanke Faith in Housing Seen Shaken in Bonds http://t.co/F0xtRsM13v The Fed never had control of the long end of the yield curve $$ #barmy Sep 20, 2013
The Fed has lost all credibility http://t.co/NhXbQjxiNa For an institution that values clear communications, things have been murky $$ Sep 19, 2013
Excellent question on financial regulation from the lady from the American Banker. $$ Sep 18, 2013
Good question from @pdacosta on the labor force participation rate and unemployment. $$ #Fed Sep 18, 2013
Less Tapering Becomes Tightening Credit No Matter What Fed Says http://t.co/rQMp900dxA Q: what total pkg does 2 forward rate expectations $$ Sep 17, 2013

Janet Yellen (we get what we deserve)

White Houses Urges Democratic Senators to Defend Yellen http://t.co/pBd1U1dz7u She seems like a lock: to QE Infinity & Beyond! $$ #FTL Sep 21, 2013
Yellen Chances Grow as Obama Aides Test Senate Support http://t.co/kbDdWmlX4L “She will make Bernanke look like a hawk.” Marc Faber $$ Sep 19, 2013
White House official says Yellen front runner for Fed chair http://t.co/wGor8xIJoI This is to make us oppose the uber-dove #anyonebutyellen Sep 19, 2013
Yellen No Lock for Fed Chair Despite Summers Exit http://t.co/ycEBcedvTe “This was an unprecedented struggle for leadership of the Fed.” $$ Sep 17, 2013
Yellen Now Front-Runner for Fed Chief http://t.co/H4xh8vmot1 Yellen means no change from the current failed policies $$ #anyonebutyellen Sep 17, 2013
Fed Leader Doubt Erodes Low-Rate Message as QE Taper Looms http://t.co/CgyxacYaap Can’t appoint Yellen now, lest it look like a loss $$ Sep 16, 2013
Why Larry Summers Bailed on the Fed http://t.co/lVn10kgYIL Bring on Don Kohn, better still, bring on that monetary dissident John Taylor $$ Sep 16, 2013

Rest of the World

Bermuda’s Search for New Wealth http://t.co/LPMJJvD6QE I like Bermuda a lot, & learned a lot here. No paparazzi, much privacy $$ #humble Sep 20, 2013
Rebel-on-Rebel Violence Seizes Syria http://t.co/LsZUvpQTuo Two player games r easy; Three-or-more player games r tough & confusing $$ Sep 20, 2013
What Happens When the US Isn?t the Biggest Gas Guzzler? http://t.co/pl8X9TkOUM 1 reason y I am long energy stocks: rising global demand $$ Sep 20, 2013
Olympic Athletes in Tokyo Risk Hottest Weather in 120 Years http://t.co/4E9MnDTzv5 Same for FIFA in Qatar, but humidity in Tokyo is a factor Sep 19, 2013
Why Even the Worst Bloggers Are Making Us Smarter http://t.co/PhztCBG6kP It is amazing how many people are writing their ideas on the web Sep 19, 2013
China?s Choking Cities Means Job Cuts at Steel Town: Commodities http://t.co/3Xmz1Z7zqh China has over-invested in heavy industry #japan1989 Sep 19, 2013
In Post-Tsunami Japan, Homeowners Pull Away From Grid http://t.co/kPUIVdYq8b Power is now less reliable, some move to solar & fuel cells Sep 19, 2013
What Egypt Wants: Cheaper Bread http://t.co/S8NE6Zo8JU Demand for Subsidized Food Vexed Ousted President and Pressures Interim Government Sep 19, 2013
Obama Rifts With Allies on Summers-Syria Limit Debt Dealing http://t.co/M8f1f1fPm6 Weakened by bad choices but he is the President! $$ Sep 18, 2013
How Did Advanced Economies Get in So Much Debt? http://t.co/QGF1acUQf8 They absorbed bad private debts, rather than letting them fail $$ Sep 18, 2013
On Putin, his NYT editorial: http://t.co/eb45qkGBq1 Peggy Noonan responds: http://t.co/qwFRsk83cR Avoid interfering in foreign wars $$ Sep 18, 2013
Canadian Household – Drowning in Debt http://t.co/hJz8057OMF Total Canadian Household Debt-to-Income Ratio Rises to Record 165.6% @ 6/13 $$ Sep 17, 2013
$$ @paulvieira Point taken. Q: If someone bot an avg house in Canada 2 rent it out, would he make money; if arb is neg, Canada faces probs Sep 17, 2013
Eleven Countries with Soaring Inflation http://t.co/xl6Ivzr5bx Soaring means >6%/yr; leading the parade are Venezuela, Argentina & Egypt $$ Sep 17, 2013
Political Risk: What Should Investors Know About China’s Interest In Peru? http://t.co/85wGZJ1x3W Biz in Peru means negotiate w/locals $$ Sep 17, 2013
Smallest Ships Profitable Again as Logs Feed China Boom http://t.co/YsPOJMW9ul Chinese demand for wood raises freight 4 small ships $$ Sep 17, 2013
Vladimir Putin, the Richest Man on Earth http://t.co/bpLFDXtPWw Who needs wealth when you control a country? Putin makes his cronies rich $$ Sep 17, 2013
China Reins in Popular Voices With New Microblog Controls http://t.co/0tlX38uI1q The internet is a threat & an aid 2 every government $$ Sep 17, 2013
No Confidence in China Markets Inflates Housing Bubble http://t.co/G8qgXC8OEW Distrust other assets leads Chinese 2 invest in real estate $$ Sep 17, 2013
Germany’s Migrating Seniors http://t.co/Bhsqr6TePo Good care cheap, but you have to move 2 Poland to get it. Solves some old age problems $$ Sep 17, 2013
Germans Export Grandma to Poland as Costs, Care Converge http://t.co/e9w45mHkQe But where will the Poles export their Grandmas? $$ #long Sep 17, 2013

US Politics & Policy

Benghazi investigators gave Hillary Clinton heads-up on findings http://t.co/6Oimx1LhSx Mrs. Clinton appointed 80% of the review board $$ Sep 21, 2013
Weeds amidst the ivy |http://t.co/nvMFuNioFN A long & relatively thorough analysis of for-profit colleges & how they milk student loans $$ Sep 21, 2013
House GOP Ties Government Funding to Health Law http://t.co/rcNBBl2c6m This is a Q of short- vs long-run. Balancing budget best 4long-run $$ Sep 20, 2013
Big Insurers Skip Health Exchanges http://t.co/JWvGJSYVdQ Y deal w/ markets that attract sick people w/limits on underwriting & pricing? $$ Sep 20, 2013
What caused the financial crisis? The Big Lie goes viral http://t.co/1qFMg1BYGo The crisis was not merely caused by bad regulation Sep 19, 2013
The Queen Mary of macro trends: Rising rates http://t.co/OSgaYzIQkg Less certain than article says, as the economy weakens, no loan growth Sep 19, 2013
Walgreen will drop its traditional health insurance and instead give its 160,000 workers payments 2buy plans http://t.co/dpvbC8IigC via @WSJ Sep 19, 2013
National pension group challenges Pew?s work http://t.co/iiZROFHzRy! Cash balance plans give lower benefits, but maybe that’s affordable Sep 19, 2013
Puerto Rico can only cover 11.2% of pension costs http://t.co/wdnQJFniEF! Puerto Rico exists 2 make Illinois think it is prudent $$ Sep 19, 2013
Obama Feels a Pinch From Congressional Democrats http://t.co/d78z6b9a2c Obama gets constrained by the Left as much as the Right $$ Sep 18, 2013
Republicans Weigh Defunding Health Law, Avoiding Shutdown http://t.co/cbiqo2vBoW Ignore the economists, they don’t know anything, & cut! $$ Sep 18, 2013
Republican Newcomer Influence in Congress Risks Shutdown http://t.co/dtdHcg59po 3-player games r much less stable then 2-player games. $$ Sep 18, 2013
The Financial States of America http://t.co/xGQ8c6uajo Clever infographic; click a state 2c how it ranks; click on categories 4 diff maps $$ Sep 17, 2013
States With The Most Zombie Homes http://t.co/Dj6hphkUrM >20% of foreclosed homes vacant: Indiana, Nevada, Georgia, Florida, MD, AZ, SC $$ Sep 17, 2013
Heroin Pushed on Chicago by Cartel Fueling Gang Murders http://t.co/GmuhpbSxIk Getting a receipt from the Indiana police 4 forfeited cash $$ Sep 17, 2013
Armed EPA raid in Alaska sheds light on 70 fed agencies w/armed divisions http://t.co/90YKg3TWB2 Interesting how many have police units $$ Sep 16, 2013
Obama stands firm on refusal to negotiate over US debt ceiling http://t.co/kUDp9Q4ZL2 Nothing bad happened from sequester; do it again $$ Sep 16, 2013
How the SOPA law got defeated politically http://t.co/X3ZJiTiJ48 Creation of a website to highlight & affect legislative markups was key $$ Sep 16, 2013
Health Law Faces Skepticism http://t.co/AYf9IjdUL9 Complex laws typically don’t work well; Obamacare/PPACA is the epitome of complexity $$ Sep 16, 2013

Market Impact

The Long, Sorry Tale of Pension Promises http://t.co/6Pi2V0yiPA It started w/accounting rules allowing2much flexibility4funding/valuation $$ Sep 21, 2013
ING CEO Says Stress Tests Without Safety Net Bring Risks http://t.co/Bi7IKXvuYK If u fail the stress test, y would anyone recapitalize u $$ Sep 21, 2013
Challenging the Imperial Boardroom http://t.co/VW6IrzKIF9 @Carl_C_Icahn argues 4 mgmt transparency, competence, & shareholder orientation $$ Sep 20, 2013
Money Market Funds Ready for Battle with Regulators http://t.co/1VIxWqfVLE Floating NAVs will kill money market funds; better solutions $$ Sep 20, 2013
Banks? $10B Sweet Spot Sets Off Buying Spree for Lenders http://t.co/2oDNEEqEdY Bank capital rules r helping create medium-large banks $$ Sep 20, 2013
Avoid ?Dividend Yield Traps?, Look To Releveraging Stocks http://t.co/0k3Qs4mJHx 2 risks: higher bond yields compete; free cash flow 2low $$ Sep 20, 2013
Longevity-Proof Your Future http://t.co/0MB5S7Yx5S The main point is that you need to save. Beyond that, invest well, but savings r capital Sep 19, 2013
Novogratz to Burbank See Stocks Surviving First Fed Taper http://t.co/Xeig2UVtvT So what? We already know “Three steps and a stumble.” Sep 19, 2013
How Social Responsible Investing Can Be Irresponsible — Pension Fund To Sell Energy Stocks? http://t.co/JE6g2S8hHC Vacuous city council Sep 19, 2013
Remembering the families at the center of the financial crisis http://t.co/ICSLkY2TcD If finances were related 2 finance/housing it hurt $$ Sep 19, 2013
Judge Dismisses Bank Lawsuit Over Mortgage Foreclosures http://t.co/aJ5VmA64x2 Richmond needs supermajority 2 use eminent domain $$ Sep 17, 2013
Dr Copper & his funny friends disagree tremendously with SP500 level http://t.co/uNpdfvlbC9 On the divergence of stocks & commodities $$ Sep 16, 2013
Is Fiscal Austerity Good for the Economy? http://t.co/gQif4JHXqc “austerity is costly in the short run, it can provide long-run benefits” $$ Sep 16, 2013
Gross?s Trade Sours as Bonds Lose Faith in Fed Guidance http://t.co/YGZgvVries Depends on level of future GDP growth, keep watching $$ Sep 16, 2013
Montepeque of Platts Caught in Battle Over Oil Assessments http://t.co/4o0wvVyCEz All human systems r gamed, just a question of how much $$ Sep 16, 2013
Wall Street trading in US fuel credits hurts consumers http://t.co/8hZ8shAIJJ Very difficult 2manipulate prices in long run: sup/dem chgs $$ Sep 16, 2013
Uh oh. People buying houses fear rising prices http://t.co/FWAAeHwKdz Bubbles persist until financing costs more than implied rents $$ Sep 16, 2013

Companies & Industries

Twitter announces IPO: The Pricing Game begins http://t.co/GlR7MWJz4X Daring Damodaran gives a value 4 $TWTR w/out having any financials $$ Sep 21, 2013
Secret Rocks and Gem Hunters http://t.co/4Dpm6jGavk Colored gems r like small cap stocks, they r unique & illiquid mkts w/odd characters $$ Sep 20, 2013
Companies Seize on Rate Reprieve to Issue Bonds http://t.co/qQJzknEqhp Many think rates will go higher, & so they issue debt now $$ Sep 20, 2013
Google May Stop Using ‘Cookies’ to Track Web Users http://t.co/MgvZtEHo1Q Could concentrate marketing power in hands of a few companies $$ Sep 20, 2013
How ?Cord Never? Generation Poses Sales Drag for Pay TV http://t.co/10M73Td7jL Once you get used to not paying for your video, u don’t pay Sep 19, 2013
Verizon Pays $5.1 Billion in Extra Interest http://t.co/om7PsDAwzO That was the price of getting a big deal done in the short-run. Sep 19, 2013
Companies are increasingly choosing to generate their own power, delivering a jolt to utilities http://t.co/brVyNOWokp Disintermediation Sep 19, 2013
For TV Shows, It’s a Seller’s Market http://t.co/eja7JEhl1t Producers have many more outlets for content & networks must pay up 4 content $$ Sep 18, 2013
Capstone Metering Provides Smart Water Management Solution, Powered By Verizon Wireless Network http://t.co/0xd77Bnz0q fascinating tech $$ Sep 17, 2013
Berkshire Billionaire Found With More Shares Than Gates http://t.co/wqoceUXHJW Tales of old buyers of $BRK.A & cpmny sellers taking stock $$ Sep 17, 2013
Retailer REI Ends Era of Many Happy Returns http://t.co/0xDYFXDV95 Abuse leads REI to end returns on items bought more than one year ago $$ Sep 16, 2013
Wildcatter Hunch Unlocks $1.5T Oil Offshore US http://t.co/4lTsK10aj0 Longish story of how a hunch led2 deepwater drilling, amid failures $$ Sep 16, 2013
How Did Wal-Mart’s IPhone Discount Defeat Apple’s Price Controls? http://t.co/F3ZuYFvbWM $WMT takes a low margin on sales of $AAPL phones $$ Sep 16, 2013
Home, Sweet (Crude) Home in Fort McMurray, Alberta http://t.co/GpuUq289T8 Economies based on resource extraction flourish 4 a time & die $$ Sep 16, 2013

Economics

Women Waiting Tables Provide Most of Female Gains in US http://t.co/eoetZdyRAi Not so much demand 4 workers w/degrees in certain majors $$ Sep 20, 2013
Martin Feldstein: How to Create a Real Economic Stimulus http://t.co/bH2e2Z67mb Suggests mild entitlement reform; we need retirement @ 72 $$ Sep 17, 2013
Want Marital Bliss? Pool Your Money http://t.co/mJQb3XEkZn The more things r shared in marriage the better/tighter the bond becomes $$ Sep 17, 2013
Mysterious Disappearance of James Duesenberry http://t.co/LD3GfjTyka Old article on relative income hypothesis. Ppl r envious not greedy $$ Sep 16, 2013
Explanation of the discrepancy is that poverty is relative. Ppl r not maximizers & economists resist this b/c the pretty math falls apart $$ Sep 16, 2013
& if the pretty math falls apart, economists can’t publish & there goes their jobs. That is y they would rather hang onto a wrong theory $$ Sep 16, 2013

Other

The Time a Cleveland Newspaper Divulged Manhattan Project http://t.co/mFDKvhJTlW Fascinating tale; clever reporter http://t.co/o5CzDU61nL $$ Sep 21, 2013
Our Chat With Jeremy Grantham http://t.co/FSlADefGi0 In general, need 4 technological change has driven technological change; we will win $$ Sep 21, 2013
Marc Faber’s Biggest Mistake http://t.co/Dui1ZehA09 Really pretty minor. Interesting guy who gets things right, but speaks bearish Sep 21, 2013
Pope Warns Church Focusing Too Much on Divisive Issues http://t.co/2yEMa3O89I More than other Popes, this one is a slave2 liberal opinion $$ Sep 20, 2013
How a 91-Year-Old Geek Helped Keep the Aged Independent http://t.co/GD1AmUK6OQ Small cheap sensors monitor oldsters, watching their needs Sep 19, 2013
Say Goodbye to the Password http://t.co/pTnQ4ng2Xn New technology aims to offer security that is more convenient and more effective $$ Sep 18, 2013
Veggie-Heavy Stress Reduction Regimen Shown to Modify Cell Aging http://t.co/b3KNrSOdSY Cooking from scratch improves your life & health $$ Sep 17, 2013
Jonathan Jacobs: As Education Declines, So Does Civic Culture http://t.co/tk7WHue1mS Biggest complaint about new analysts: can’t write $$ Sep 17, 2013
Gonorrhea Among Drug-Resisting Germs Sickening Millions http://t.co/Fbgw14Q4ZQ Add C. difficile & E. coli; resistance 2 antibiotics grows $$ Sep 17, 2013
Twitter Co-Founder Evan Williams Lays Out His Plan For The Future Of Media http://t.co/e7nv4u8Z0T Need the equivalent of @abnormalreturns $$ Sep 16, 2013
Google?s Boss and a Princeton Professor Agree: College Is a Dinosaur http://t.co/ffUTIQFxdV True, but what do we do 2prove knowledge then $$ Sep 16, 2013

Replies, Retweets, & Comments

Thanks @MarshaCollier @EdmundSLee for being top new followers in my community this week 🙂 | insight by http://t.co/sern3wLA13 Sep 20, 2013
#FollowFriday Thanks @ReformedBroker @pelias01 @researchpuzzler for being top influencers in my community this week 🙂 Sep 20, 2013
@dpinsen I almost never read fiction. Sep 20, 2013
RT @interfluidity: the Fed has learned the trick about stretching your feet out beyond the covers then pulling them back in to feel warm. Sep 19, 2013
RT @BloombergNews: Sold for sex at puberty is village girls’ fate in wealthier India | http://t.co/oZsp9d2LcV Saddest article I have read Sep 19, 2013
@ppearlman Congratulations, Phil. One of my favorite websites is going to get better still. Sep 17, 2013
$$ @joebrusuelas Wrong. Yellen is an imitation of the policies of Bernanke & QE. They don’t work. Summers — rejection of the Rubin clique. Sep 17, 2013
@rj_trades Worked 4 me. Don’t know what’s wrong… Sep 16, 2013

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 14 September 2013 by David Merkel

Rest of the World

Chinese Buy Sydney Homes at Unprecedented Rate, McGrath Says http://t.co/EsRV6O2E99 Stylish flight capital does not come cheaply, mate $$ Sep 14, 2013
Rajan Hailed as Swings Drop Amid Gundlach Warning http://t.co/Cxn6tDBDqe Rajan has courage to defend the Rupee & slow the Indian economy $$ Sep 14, 2013
Aniston?s Salad Isn?t Enough as Quinoa Farmers Reap Golden Crop http://t.co/CkkKzTR5lC Bolivian farmers rejoice growing quinoa makes $$ Sep 14, 2013
Catalan Separatists Pull Off Human Chain But Referendum Is Harder http://t.co/Yy15a6AfPW Reaching the limits of bad policy, risking wars $$ Sep 12, 2013
Norway Pledges to Limit Oil Spending http://t.co/IzVJKwunbq Probably smart, because it is easier 2 overspend an endowment than underspend $$ Sep 12, 2013
Shipping Rates Seen at 2010 High on Record Ore to China http://t.co/rCXg6JUlzf Means China is likely not rebalancing to consumption yet $$ Sep 10, 2013
Youngest Japan Boards Beating Oldest With Stocks Rising 139% http://t.co/JDXARNyCku Returns were 52% for other firms over the last 3yrs $$ Sep 10, 2013
Syrian Christians Pack Passports Fearing Islamist Onslaught http://t.co/vcaHMVzJpz More Coptic churches in US, next comes Syrian Orthodox $$ Sep 10, 2013
Russia to Brazil Intervention Adds to U.S. Debt Distress http://t.co/wPiBAG35Z7 The real Q is what they are buyingw/the $$ they sell? Sep 09, 2013
Syria Vote May Derail Obama?s Agenda in Congress http://t.co/oGoHtSGUzD Argues that Obama has to win the Syria vote 2 avoid looking weak $$ Sep 09, 2013
Ancient Golden Treasure Found Near Jerusalem Temple Mount http://t.co/tLRWZfsNEm Byzantine coins dating from 4th – 7th centuries $$ menorah Sep 09, 2013
India?s Middle Class Hit as Rupee Plunge Pushes Up Prices http://t.co/AlN4xRJKI3 Another example of how inflation hits the poor hardest $$ Sep 08, 2013
Tokyo Defeats Madrid, Istanbul for Rights to 2020 Olympics http://t.co/gikYyiO4pY Tokyo wins the prize to build Olympic white elephants $$ Sep 08, 2013

US Politics & Policy

US Faces Long-Term Care Crisis, Report Says http://t.co/uu68sNvNWz Unsolvable unless we rein in costs, redefine what Medicare will cover $$ Sep 14, 2013
States Face Decision on Saving Trains http://t.co/Ps5L9Wk631 Federal subsidies end on short Amtrak routes, will states pick up tab? $$ #bus Sep 14, 2013
Walmart Wins in DC http://t.co/ixe7uC1U6C “Mayor Gray has chosen jobs, economic development and common sense over special interests” $$ Sep 14, 2013
Republicans Holding Next Fed Chairman?s Fate Stay Quiet http://t.co/k7oIqCtP6w GOP sits & grins over no-win situation 4 democrats & Obama $$ Sep 14, 2013
How Wal-Mart?s Waltons Maintain Their Billionaire Fortune http://t.co/duLt9Ogtod This is y defining income more important than tax rates $$ Sep 12, 2013
How to Preserve a Family Fortune Through Tax Tricks http://t.co/xHI585uI8W Graphic showing how GLATs, CRATs & Family LPs work $$ #lowertaxes Sep 12, 2013
Even a Railway Line Can?t Dodge the Keystone XL Controversy http://t.co/ykz7FdFdoS Given the delay, new projects replace the need 4 K-XL $$ Sep 12, 2013
New York Mayor Race Worries Business http://t.co/AQUazQsdYa De Blasio pursues policies that made Detroit the great city it is now $$ #FTL Sep 12, 2013
California city backs plan to seize negative equity mortgages http://t.co/LmTGRhptuK Fail: loss of financing for city & new homeowners $$ Sep 12, 2013
GE, IBM Ending Retiree Health Plans in Historic Shift http://t.co/Plbc1CK4fG Obamacare leads large corporations 2shed retiree healthcare $$ Sep 12, 2013
Fraud Stealing $100M Shows Flaws in US Crop Insurance http://t.co/zTEg7Z0UG4 System relatively easy2cheat.Graphic: http://t.co/GkJ8RT0BLn $$ Sep 12, 2013
NSA Violated Privacy Protections, Officials Say http://t.co/b4cEoloHz5 Much as it would unemploy my friends, we need 2 end the NSA $$ Sep 11, 2013
Five Revelations From New NSA Documents http://t.co/khGGuAsqpU Government violated its own rules repeatedly, showing no respect 4the law $$ Sep 11, 2013
Intel clashes w/Obama’s election-year al Qaeda claims http://t.co/r6vM2wtjMz The successes against al Qaeda undone by spread 2 new areas $$ Sep 10, 2013
Kerry’s ‘Gaffe’ Beats Military Strikes http://t.co/Il4bA172Y1 Hey, getting the chemical weapons out of Syria is @ least a small win, yes? $$ Sep 10, 2013
Crop Insurers? $14 Billion Some See as Money Laundering http://t.co/39r6zZQrcz Difficult 4 crop insurers 2 lose as US Taxpayers foot bill $$ Sep 10, 2013
DeVry Lures Medical School Rejects as Taxpayers Fund Debt http://t.co/Ek4gXsIkHB Long article on how Caribbean med schools compete w/US $$ Sep 10, 2013
The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act: Time to End the Corporate Welfare http://t.co/NPlTkozP4n There is no need to subsidize terror insurance $$ Sep 10, 2013
Taxpayers Turn US Farmers Into Fat Cats With Subsidies http://t.co/aLE07PrkFt Crop insurance sends all the risk of farming to taxpayers $$ Sep 09, 2013
In Conversation With Michael Bloomberg http://t.co/dtJ4WJZnaZ Long somewhat hostile article asking Bloomberg his views, plans, etc. $$ Sep 09, 2013
Dear NSA, Thanks for Making Us All Insecure http://t.co/3sfMaeyR1L NSA weakens security 4all, harms interests of US Internet Corporations $$ Sep 08, 2013
it also lowers global trust in the US, fragments the internet, & encourages nations that censor & monitor the internet by US bad example $$ Sep 08, 2013

Financial Sector Today

Why looser lending standards won’t help you http://t.co/p36wvJj6YC Lending standards fall in markets hit by crash & now prices r rising $$ Sep 14, 2013
Berkshire, AIG Join Battle Over Lucrative Business http://t.co/P87xoC3YZp $BRK.B roils industry expanding in excess-and-surplus insurance $$ Sep 14, 2013
House Talk: When an HOA Forecloses http://t.co/7Auan3ZFg2 Yes, your homeowners association can foreclose if you don’t pay your dues $$ Sep 08, 2013
Upside: Emerging-Market Bond Bargains http://t.co/2wIcJ5a8r5 They look cheap, but Q is how they adjust 2 tighter world monetary policy $$ Sep 08, 2013

Financial Crisis Fifth Anniversary

TARP didn’t save banks, it ruined them: Kovacevich http://t.co/o6BjBjNqbK Contradicts Paulson who said the TARP funds were voluntary $$ Sep 14, 2013
By every measure, the big banks are bigger http://t.co/nmfyAJ2CG9 The top 6 banks hold 67% of all assets in the banking industry $$ Sep 14, 2013
A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond’s Legacy Lives On http://t.co/NdJy3NLyih Story of CWABS 2006-7 Borrowers, Investors & Others Touched by It $$ Sep 14, 2013
Lehman’s Cold Dead Hand Is Still Reaching Out For Money http://t.co/tbqVCB32LV Many games can b played w/derivatives of a BK counterparty $$ Sep 14, 2013
Five years after Lehman, risk moves into the shadows http://t.co/9hootI4MGa Bank runs still possible due2 repo, margining, putable debt $$ Sep 12, 2013
2008-2013: The Financial Crisis in 9 Charts http://t.co/2JmO98tqzA GDP, S&P500, Finance profits, employment, income, cars, homes & more $$ Sep 12, 2013
Lehman Brothers Abyss Had Paulson Seeking Prayer Amid Crisis http://t.co/y5ucZK5dNX I’m getting tired of seeing Paulson in the news $$ #long Sep 12, 2013
Embracing Wynne Godley, an Economist Who Modeled the Crisis http://t.co/dEm8njuXmT The right answer involves Minsky and the Austrians $$ Sep 12, 2013
Financial Crisis: Lessons of the Rescue, A Drama in Five Acts http://t.co/EIdEVqnkWa John Taylor blames Govt policy for creating crisis $$ Sep 09, 2013
Henry Paulson Defends Fannie Mae Bailout http://t.co/Rtvjlv8vsF As a result, we have maintained an overleveraged economy, more govt debt $$ Sep 09, 2013

Central Banking

Why Michael Woodford Thinks the Fed Should Taper http://t.co/Lyy1oLnhfC Contends that we need more safe assets in the financial system $$ Sep 14, 2013
Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness? http://t.co/SDaTi4zItG Older ppl react less 2changes in interest rates $$ Sep 10, 2013
Fed wants yet another tool in its swelled policy kit http://t.co/5BvNPM0ro6 fixed-rate, full-allotment overnight reverse repo agreements $$ Sep 09, 2013

Other

Detroit?s Bankruptcy and Pension Solution Depends More on its Planned Recovery and Rebirth – Not Just Cutting Costs http://t.co/RbkP5qNbeo! Sep 14, 2013
The prior article tweeted I disagree with. There r many high sounding words, amounting 2 “If we all clap, Tinkerbell will live!” $$ #nohope Sep 14, 2013
Insight: In Silicon Valley start-up world, pedigree counts http://t.co/tg1ox11QsK The school u went 2 or the firm u worked 4 matters $$ Sep 13, 2013
MIT?s Williams Decodes Economics of Gene Sequencing http://t.co/jPeJXSGK7d Economist connects intellectual pprty & incentives 2 research $$ Sep 12, 2013
Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Admits Global Cooling? http://t.co/qZCWogzNwD Climate changes; it always changes $$ Sep 12, 2013
Financial Secrets Revealed! (Just Don?t Ask Where They Came From) http://t.co/5U6tugKpWV @retheauditors tells journos&readers2check facts $$ Sep 11, 2013
Fate or Destiny? http://t.co/FyEmhLLK0K @reformedbroker goes on hiatus? My but I will miss him. The financial blogosphere will miss him $$ Sep 11, 2013
The Weak Recovery Explains Rising Inequality, Not Vice Versa http://t.co/5fWR45Z3gi When growth was strong, incomes more even $$ Sep 10, 2013
Alcoa, H-P & Bank of America to Be Replaced on DJIA http://t.co/lDsl4dYVTL Nike, Visa & Goldman Sachs enter $$ $V $GS $NKE $AA $HPQ $BAC Sep 10, 2013
10 ways to wipe out your retirement savings http://t.co/HjTw5raXEd Complexity, leverage, low diversification, self-custody, slick-talkers $$ Sep 09, 2013
Are the Baltic Dry Index Telling Us to Expect Stronger Economic Activity? http://t.co/5xZSe3HvTT BDI has been turning up lately, so maybe $$ Sep 09, 2013
http://t.co/Ti2RuDFD37 Did you read the deal terms? Looking at a special dividend of ~$5/share plus ~0.23 shs of $VZ per sh of $VOD. $$ Sep 09, 2013
AT&T Gets Tentative Approval to Fund Pension With Preferred Stock http://t.co/FS7tWqkxo8 In BK, pref stock worth little;PBGC holds bag $$ $T Sep 08, 2013

Verizon Bond Deal

How to Borrow $49B with a Stroke of a Pen http://t.co/v4djHDzgjh Bond deal of $VZ had weak covenants versus most investment grade deals $$ Sep 12, 2013
Verizon Nets $2.09 Billion Windfall for Bond Sale Buyers http://t.co/3EWb3AvE6z In order to get the deal done $VZ had to offer 4%+ gift $$ Sep 12, 2013
Verizon Pays Premium to Top Apple Bond Record http://t.co/VqnMkvWvn4 I would b wary of holding much long $VZ debt. Who doesn’t own it? $$ Sep 12, 2013
Verizon Plans $20B Debt Sale http://t.co/uwWhFrvlwY Biggest ever, & on top of $48B+ of existing debt, will have 2have juicy yields $$ $VZ Sep 10, 2013
Verizon may boost size of bond offering: sources http://t.co/CGF0NsXD24 $VZ gets ready 2 issue biggest USD corporate bond deal EVER $$ $25B+ Sep 10, 2013

Wrong, Etc.

Gundlach Says Fed Is Mistaken in How It?s Ending Easing http://t.co/LPAZUFia7n This article does not make clear what Gundlach objects to $$ Sep 12, 2013
4 investment tips that you should never use http://t.co/hjfumLxV3u Mixed analysis where the author knocks down falsehoods and straw men $$ Sep 12, 2013
Confused: Buffett?s investing advice is a portfolio killer http://t.co/nQF65PRnaD More a criticism of Peter Lynch than Warren Buffett $$ Sep 12, 2013
Wrong: Systemically Important Banks in the Post-Crisis Era http://t.co/seuYEsF5L4 Long, and misses liquidity issues like repo financing $$ Sep 10, 2013

Retweets, Replies, and Comments

@munilass I read this and thought that things haven’t changed much since Heraclitus and Parmenides. Would like to hear his thoughts on Godel Sep 14, 2013
@jeffdanoff1 Of course I know that. I detest Paulson’s 5-year anniversary self-justification obfuscation. Kovacevich shoots straight. Sep 14, 2013
RT @munilass: Feynman’s lectures are now available online (Volume 1) http://t.co/K4TfrMkQuD (via @jtc_19) Sep 14, 2013
@munilass @BarbarianCap I too have appreciated your writings. They are worth keeping. If you don’t want to pay to do it, I could host them Sep 14, 2013
I just left a comment in “Buffett?s investing advice is a portfolio killer – Jeff Reeves’s Strength in Numbers – Ma?” http://t.co/6oyVHvcKgK Sep 12, 2013
Thanks @munilass | I knew u had written about this in the past. I’m a generalist w/bonds, so I thought I would show it 2u4 your thoughts $$ Sep 12, 2013
Hey @munilass — I would b interested in your opinion on this from The Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget http://t.co/GwHTQNSzfy Sep 11, 2013
Commented on StockTwits: @Financial_Iceberg Saw that & tweeted it yesterday. The question is how long China can c… http://t.co/b7dmG6PvE3 Sep 10, 2013
I just left a comment in “David Einhorn was right about this stock – MarketWatch” http://t.co/koU5CehwBZ Sep 09, 2013
@mcuban @howardlindzon Here is my reply, 2 large for twitter: http://t.co/qSgjjTYFRe Yes, most retail investors r dumb, but money can b made Sep 07, 2013

On Reinsurance

Posted on 31 August 20132 September 2013 by David Merkel

From a reader:

Was reading a history of AIG and it was discussing the early years. There was a line to the tune of ‘anything Hank reinsured paid off’.

You’ve written many times usually in the context of LTC, that insurers should not insure anything where the customers have a better idea of future claims than the company does. How is this rule not violated by reinsurance? Are reinsurance actuaries better, or are most deals in agreement about the risk and more about regulatory arbitrage/capital relief?

My response:

Which history are you talking about?

His response:

Fatal Risk – “They pretty much hit it perfectly. Whatever they laid off risk-wise seemed to result in claims and it was during a period where reinsurance was fairly cheap. They got the best part of the deal, by far.”

Okay, now I get it.? I’ve reviewed Fatal Risk, and have the most helpful 5-star review at Amazon.? I also have a special discussion with Roddy Boyd here.? I regard him as a friend of mine.

If insurers are supposed to be conservative, their reinsurers should be doubly so.? But AIG was a big company, and a plum to have as a client, many imagined.? But AIG would hand off underpriced risks to reinsurers, and there was a saying current when I worked at AIG 1989-92 “Never give a reinsurer an even break.”? This varies from the clubby reinsurance world pre-1980, where reinsurers and insurers would adjust terms of agreements in order to be fair, whatever that means.

AIG broke from that, and stressed the strict letter of the contract, and did not compromise.? An example from my time at AIG: a reinsurer of annuity business was caught short when Congress implemented the “DAC tax,” which was really a tax on new insurance premiums.? The reinsurer lost and asked us to compensate them.? We refused; there will always be more reinsurers.

Much reinsurance on the life side does cover regulatory arbitrage and capital relief.? With P&C, that’s not a big factor; rather it is risk reduction.

Reinsurers see more of the industry than a single insurer, that partially compensates for the reinsurer not having as much detail as the ceding insurer.? Reinsurers underwrite insurance companies and their management teams, in addition to the exposures at hand.? If an insurer gets a reputation for being too slick, reinsurers back off.

AIG may have been different because they were so big.? But even AIG had rough times with reinsurers: rescission of annuity treaties with Lincoln National in the mid-90s (costing hundreds of millions), and earnings management with General Re, on a reinsurance deal that did not pass risk, which led to the downfall of Hank Greenberg.

P&C reinsurers have other ways of mitigating risk as well, for example, requiring the company to take the first $XX million of losses, and limiting total losses covered.

So, no, reinsurers aren’t brighter than insurers, but they have to be selective, and not write business just to deploy capital.? If they are disciplined, they will turn down business when they can’t make money on underwriting, and send shareholders the excess capital.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on 30 August 2013 by David Merkel

Companies & Industries

Falling gas prices this Fall http://t.co/EQkgsyKoSm Pollution requirements fall, people drive less, overcomes geopolitical effects $$ Aug 30, 2013
Wal-Mart vs Costco, Why My Critics R Wrong http://t.co/2eBuKkJ8G2 $WMT offers more variety vs $COST | thus more people lower wage rates $$ Aug 30, 2013
Brazilian Billionaire Who Controls Your Beer, Condiments, & Whopper http://t.co/CbfdxNQLAP Long piece on Jorge Lemann $$ #Heinz $BRK.B Aug 30, 2013
New York to Seattle Buyers Tap Brakes After Rates Rise http://t.co/uU0NS9CiCU Rising prices & mortgage rates mean loan payments 2 high $$ Aug 30, 2013
US Bank Legal Bills Exceed $100B Bloomberg http://t.co/BklYyebbFV Just think how profitable they will be when the dust settles 😉 $$ Aug 29, 2013
Cheap Corn Deters Buyers in US Sugar-for-Ethanol Plan http://t.co/sAYPAt1G9g Corn scarcity becomes corn glut, reinforcing sugar glut $$ Aug 29, 2013
Why Wal-Mart Will Never Pay Like Costco http://t.co/EPVjeV0OvF $WMT has much wider diversity of products, so more workers @ lower pay $$ Aug 29, 2013
Why Is Chicken More Expensive? Ask McDonald’s http://t.co/iU7OzuIF8f When $MCD adds a new ingredient to their menu, drives prices higher $$ Aug 29, 2013
Xerox Can Fix Number-Switching Scanners, but Not Altered Docs http://t.co/6HfzO8IqtV Could b a lot of work 2 re-scan originals if u havem $$ Aug 27, 2013
JPMorgan Worth 30% More If Broken Up, KBW Says http://t.co/b5eJc14Lio Pure play financial institutions always get better valuations $JPM $$ Aug 24, 2013
Apple, Samsung, IBM, World’s Universities in Graphene Gold Rush http://t.co/riFRiMHAzN Crystalline Carbon 1 atom thick sheets are amazing $$ Aug 24, 2013
College is like gasoline, demand for it is inelastic. Thus any subsidy gets captured by the college, & taxes get eaten by gas consumers $$ Aug 24, 2013
The Real Reason College Costs So Much http://t.co/NJNV3Ksovg Richard Vedder explains how federal subsidies push up the price on college $$ Aug 24, 2013
djco_corresp-031513.htm http://t.co/VwvVLv7mZi Munger’s law firm explains y $DJCO shouldn’t b viewed as an investment company. Well done! $$ Aug 24, 2013

US Politics & Policy

Obama Is About 2Undermine His Mideast Doctrine http://t.co/VveJslt6LM Obama has mostly tried 2disengage US from Mideast, this reverses it $$ Aug 30, 2013
The Rising Cost of Social Security Disability Insurance http://t.co/4sEVmFKDfc SSDI’s trust fund runs out is 2016; 2EZ 2get on disability $$ Aug 29, 2013
And Next Year There Will Be an Eighth Budget ?Showdown? http://t.co/2nflqEZLPM Rate of budget growth slowed, but scope of govt expands $$ Aug 29, 2013
Regulators Ease Mortgage Rules http://t.co/LuEU9uY1Hz Swiss cheese regs destroy direct incentives 4 originators 2 produce quality loans $$ Aug 29, 2013
Regulators Back Away From Tougher Mortgage Rules http://t.co/4WQwGVNnF9 More capital needs to be held against exotic mortgage loans, good $$ Aug 29, 2013
Obama Meets Panel Reviewing US Surveillance Programs http://t.co/kjDsoD3K7D Repeal the Patriot Act; modifications r not enough $$ Aug 28, 2013
College Leaders Wary of Obama Plan Linking College Aid to Rank http://t.co/jw7K3X29TV Plan could hurt the very parties Obama wants 2 help $$ Aug 25, 2013
Samantha Power on the Duty to Intervene http://t.co/B4ttOrPB3T This argues that the US should be the cop of the globe 4 the worst things $$ Aug 25, 2013

Rest of the World

Sinopec-Apache Deal Shows China’s Resource Appetite http://t.co/90Yr1G9aUN China learns how 2negotiate minority stakes in oil properties $$ Aug 30, 2013
Hollande Draws Heat From Biz 4 Tax-Driven Pension Revamp http://t.co/62E5lKMHqr France?s tax burden is ~46% of GDP, 3rd highest in Europe $$ Aug 30, 2013
Scandinavia?s Weakest Nation Finds Welfare Habits Too Costly http://t.co/UCNH3umT7p Denmark looks forward, realizes it must cut welfare $$ Aug 30, 2013
The Abenomics Mirage: In Reality, Too Many Challenges? http://t.co/542B5V4JHw Japan imports on net so a lower yen doesn’t help much $$ Aug 30, 2013
Schaeuble Snubs Greek Plea for Direct Bank Recapitalization http://t.co/lCStBdF3Qc Perhaps Greece needs 2 establish effective taxation $$ Aug 29, 2013
Spaniards Fleeing Jobless Scourge Seek Jobs in Morocco http://t.co/pZZexcIzCY Can’t earn as much but can earn something as Spain shrinks $$ Aug 29, 2013
Start-Ups Fill Void Left by Spain?s 26% Unemployment Rate http://t.co/9a2RqRUG6i If u can’t work 4 someone else u can work 4 yourself $$ Aug 28, 2013
Czech Zero Percent Lending Rate Feeds Home-Buying Frenzy http://t.co/cWZ24eKjxb Bad things happen when there is seemingly free $$ available Aug 28, 2013
Vietnam Rises as Middle Power at Defense Summit http://t.co/tHVz8Yn4SP Wants to stay neutral btw the US & China, while protecting itself $$ Aug 28, 2013
Teachers Roil Mexico Capital http://t.co/qrQif3mpsY Maybe it’s time 2 move the capital out of Mexico City, to someplace more hospitable $$ Aug 28, 2013
Emerging-Market Rout Intensifies on Syria Jitters http://t.co/U4upWVYVAE Jitters affect oil mkt & it spills over in to weak emerging mkts $$ Aug 28, 2013
Fed Officials Rebuff Coordination Calls as QE Taper Looms http://t.co/kTaFgn7CwT Emerging markets whipsawed as US monetary policy shifts $$ Aug 28, 2013
Veteran Saudi Power Player Prince Bandar Works To Build Support to Topple Assad http://t.co/cXFO7hLG9W Islamic proxy war continues $$ Aug 27, 2013
Emerging Europe Is a Haven in Selloff http://t.co/OErr8eqJjt Hard to damage nations w/more orthodox fiscal policies, but still part of EZ $$ Aug 27, 2013
Emerging market slump highlights Fed’s global reach http://t.co/mxmfLY6ya2 The US sneezes & the world catches cold, again $$ Aug 27, 2013
Charlene Chu Interview with Goldman on China?s Credit Bubble http://t.co/ytHhrZYm7H Excellent Interview showing future China weakness $$ Aug 27, 2013

Other

Scientists Shed New Light on Black Holes http://t.co/oNyfGEJKHM The speed w/which gas is pulled toward a black hole repels some entering $$ Aug 30, 2013
Is It Evil to Send Your Kids to Private School??http://t.co/SljCeNm7qq Parents will always find ways 2keep children out of subpar schools $$ Aug 30, 2013
Age-Related Forgetfulness Tied to Diminished Brain Protein http://t.co/fFe2U2eqQw This may have some promise in reducing dementia $$ Aug 30, 2013
Definitive merger agreement between 2 business journalists http://t.co/Pup53ksizg Do some R&D, & create subsidiaries that will b spun off $$ Aug 30, 2013
How Haute Vegetables R Conquering $500 Tasting Menus http://t.co/QTAxKlwm1S Borage is a well-known medicinal herb; interesting 1st course $$ Aug 29, 2013
Six Reasons the US Will Dominate http://t.co/ZreqluzZJS Immigrants, more workers, entrepreneurship, labor flexibility, <Financing, strong $$ Aug 28, 2013
P2P lending pulls in big investors – should you bite? http://t.co/jyg3kdaSrr Soon 2 come, a peer2peer lending closed-end fund $$ #ohno #FTL Aug 28, 2013
Shoeshines Keep Wall Street in the Black (or Maybe Brown) http://t.co/LQNtODrhcP A unique institution stays alive on Wall Street $$ Aug 27, 2013
Sometimes I think Federal education policy is designed to weigh down the system, making it easier 4 private & home schools 2 outperform $$ Aug 27, 2013
Biggest Changes in a Decade Greet Students http://t.co/BIgJHbqiLN Some Teachers, Parents Push Back on New Standards “Common Core” $$ Aug 27, 2013
Home Births on the Rise for New York Families http://t.co/MYxaaeEWua Fascinating trend, though I think the best is a midwife @ a hospital $$ Aug 27, 2013
Midwives provides far better care than doctors w/normal deliveries, & they r cheaper. Being @ a hospital provides insurance if trouble $$ Aug 27, 2013
Are You Ready for the Post-College SAT? http://t.co/WyscN8A7W6 College is not valuable to some employers -> a new test 2 show your smarts $$ Aug 27, 2013
Regarding that last tweet, could testing replace college? Credentialing is important, but do we need to waste four years to credential? $$ Aug 27, 2013
Jail Becomes Home for Husband Stuck With Lifetime Alimony http://t.co/Mb4Q8Q0PjH Debtors prison returns in a new form $$ long article Aug 27, 2013
Muriel Siebert, First Woman to Buy Seat on NYSE, Dies at 84 http://t.co/qzeE9csU2K Used to have an account w/her firm; good company $$ Aug 27, 2013
Ben Franklin Gets a Makeover http://t.co/Rxm3ipFY0g Ben Franklin owned slaves?! Whouda thunk it! New presentation about a complex guy $$ Aug 25, 2013
Dishwashers Beat Clothes as US Moms Use Hand-Me-Downs http://t.co/cbcn0ENrp1 People buy things w/longer-term value, reduce luxuries $$ Aug 25, 2013

PPACA / Obamacare

A New Kind of Insurance Head-Scratcher: Estimating Future Income http://t.co/YeW19BKNhf Incentive will b2 under-report until checked $$ Aug 30, 2013
The Young and the Healthy http://t.co/PuODKsJBSZ One more calculator 4 Obamacare subsidies 4 young & not well-paid $$ Old win, young lose Aug 30, 2013
Senior Discounts http://t.co/Do37iNPq7I Interesting illustrative calculator on premium subsidies under Obamacare. Incentives to earn less $$ Aug 30, 2013
Thus PPACA will have an incentive 2 destroy working, & the exchanges will fail, as they will only attract the sick, young ppl stay away $$ Aug 30, 2013
Also, look at this graphic http://t.co/WTV8HAcVVZ As incomes go from 25K to 55K, subsidy is lost & an implied 17% tax from the loss $$ Aug 30, 2013
Subsidies for Older Buyers Give Health Insurers a Headache http://t.co/0eOfVj33XU Subsidies will will older poor in2 exchanges, not young $$ Aug 30, 2013

Harbinger Group Life Insurance IPO
?? Falcone Insurer Said to Seek $1 Billion Valuation in IPO – Bloomberg http://t.co/RoHy0ODzQu & my tart comments: http://t.co/JSu9QvtXhf $$ Aug 30, 2013

Harbinger’s insurance unit files for $100M IPO http://t.co/72DBoMSG6C $HRG pays itself a dividend; dig the 28pp of risk factors @ the SEC $$ Aug 29, 2013

Market Impact

Pimco Sees Taper in Worst MBS Slump Since 1999 http://t.co/UdXVCkajVo Bond market summary, particularly noting taper effect on MBS market $$ Aug 30, 2013
Some IPOs Aim for Small Investors http://t.co/3hh47lfQ6K Keep your hand on your wallet, alternative stock distribution methods untested $$ Aug 30, 2013
Currency Spikes at 4 PM in London Provide Rigging Clues http://t.co/fyG78r3RhI All human systems r gamed; need 2 acct 4 that w/benchmarks $$ Aug 28, 2013
How ?black squirrels? infested Wall Street http://t.co/6CIVfJcpAF Efforts to level playing field made it more opaque & hazardous $$ #complex Aug 27, 2013
Cyclical Stocks Looking Historically Cheap http://t.co/FomqlE3ZDq Yes, cheap. What will happen 2 cyclical earnings if the economy slows? $$ Aug 25, 2013

Central Banking

Fed’s IG says central bank violated document rules http://t.co/YCtbIbhfAJ Issued minutes of policy meeting a day b4 the scheduled release $$ Aug 30, 2013
Did Fed?s Forward Guidance Backfire? Paper Says Probably http://t.co/C4Ew7T2AXR The idea that clear Fed communication works is unproven $$ Aug 25, 2013
Summers as Obama Voice of Authority Rides Car Rescue in Fed Race http://t.co/EKKOnRhvq1 Good piece on y Obama may pick Summers 4Fed Chair $$ Aug 25, 2013

Wrong, Etc.

Wrong: CLO Rule Aimed to Pass Retention to Banks Won?t Work, RBS Says http://t.co/KkQQ8l2lqw Will shrink the # of issuers, that’s not bad $$ Aug 29, 2013
Bad title: Why Is Vladimir Putin Acting So Crazy? http://t.co/ILtxIFNOSO He’s acting rationally in response to changing conditions $$ Aug 29, 2013
Wrong:Will Obama Make the Fed Even Worse? http://t.co/YZblnIKzOe Not well argued. More about his view $$ policy is 2 tight, less about Obama Aug 27, 2013
Sort of: The Strong Case for Optimism About US Growth http://t.co/5LJgQuli4v Except it is optimism after 5 more years of deleveraging $$ Aug 27, 2013

Retweets, Replies & Comments

RT @EddyElfenbein: Happy 83rd Birthday to Warren Edward Buffett @WarrenBuffett. The Dow was at 240.42 eighty-three years ago. Aug 30, 2013
#FollowFriday Thanks @ReformedBroker @pelias01 @researchpuzzler for being top influencers in my community this week 🙂 Aug 30, 2013
Thanks @OGMarcusC @Metalbanker for being top new followers in my community this week 🙂 | insight by http://t.co/sern3wLA13 Aug 30, 2013
@ledbetreuters If you had your own website, & had a Google Page Rank over 5, u would get around two of those per week. Very pesky. Aug 30, 2013
RT @azizonomics: Nobel War Prize Aug 30, 2013
RT @ianbremmer: Knock knock. Who’s there? The international community. The international community who? Precisely. Aug 30, 2013
RT @treehcapital: Yet another reason to love New Zealand @pkedrosky: New Zealand bans software patents http://t.co/6ah7N84QtA Aug 29, 2013
Thanks @researchpuzzler @AndreCimini for being top engaged members in my community this week 🙂 | insight by http://t.co/sern3wLA13 Aug 26, 2013
@alisonforns And I see the glass as 70 fewer than 140. What a wonderful world! Aug 26, 2013

The Fed Needs Valuation Actuaries (and More Steel in the Spine)

Posted on 20 August 2013 by David Merkel

I reviewed the following report from the Federal Reserve to Congress today, and found it disappointing.? From my prior experience as an actuary, and the time that I spent on the asset-liability committee of a small bank, I know that? the banking industry is far behind the life insurance industry on risk control.? The Fed would have done far better to have studied the works of the Society of Actuaries and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, and learned from their efforts.

Now, I know that the contingencies of banks are far less predictable then those of life insurers.? Further, life insurers have long liabilities, whereas the liabilities of banks are short, and thus, they are more subject to runs.? But liquidity risk management does not play a large role in their document — and this is a severe defect in what they write.? Almost all failures of financial firms are due to loss of liquidity.? The word liquidity only appears once in the document, on page 15.? This shows the amateurish work of the writers.

The Fed focuses on a lot of process issues that don’t matter as much as the substantive issues of discovering forward-looking measures of risk, and changing business processes to reflect those risks.

Here are some examples:

1) Internal controls matter, but it is a rare internal control auditor that can truly analyze a complex mathematical process.? They don’t have the capacity to review those processes, or they would be doing it and earning far more.

2) Risk identification is important, but the Fed document would have not helped in 2007-2009.? How do you detect risks that have (seemingly) never happened before?? Further, if you do detect a major problem that has happened before, and it would impair some very profitable businesses, why do you think management will kill profits to appease your lunacy?

3) Governance is important, but the board gets data so late that it is useless.? This is not worth bothering with.? Management has to do the job here.

4) The language on capital targets is weak, and allows the banks way too much latitude in performing their own calculations.? The Fed needs to be far more specific, and prescribe the scenarios that need to be tested.? It need to prescribe the loss severities, asset class by asset class.? It needs to prescribe the correlations, if any, that can be used in the models.

5) The document does not speak of ethics.? Valuation Actuaries do the same work on a higher level, and they have an ethics code.? That may occasionally make them oppose the management team that pays them, but it is a necessary check against managements trying to manipulate results.

6)? The piece spends too much time on the dividend policies of bank holding companies, and no significant time on the abilities of the subsidiaries ability to dividend to the bank holding companies.? The proper focus of a bank regulator is on the health of the operating subsidiaries.? Who care if the holding company goes broke?? Big deal, at least we protected depositors.

Banking regulators should adopt the same policy as insurance regulators.? Outside of ordinary limits, they can deny any special dividends from subsidiaries to the holding company.

7) The piece does not get forward-looking estimates of risk.? On new classes of assets, you don’t have historical data to aid in estimates of risk.? At such a point, one must look at similar businesses that have gone through a failure cycle, or do something even more difficult: do a cash flow model to estimate where losses will fall if asset values decline for an unspecified reason (okay, no more ability to buy…)

8 ) Macroeconomic factors rarely correlate well with the factors that lead to losses on assets.? Most of that effort is a waste.

9) As Buffett said (something like): “We’re paid to think about things that can’t happen.”? This is why the Fed has to specify scenarios, and be definite.? The mealy-mouthed language of the document can be gainsayed.? Life Actuaries have better guidance.

10) So all of the banks did not pass the mark.? With the vagueness of the guidelines, no surprise.? Let the Fed put forth real guidelines for bank stress tests, and let the banks scream when they get them.? Better to have slow growth in the banking sector than another crisis.

On Credit Quality in Life Insurance

Posted on 17 August 201318 August 2013 by David Merkel

When I was 20+ years younger the new chief actuary of a subsidiary I was in came and told me his tale of woe.? At a prior company he had worked for, the company had terminated the defined benefit pension plan, and went to a low-credit quality insurer to purchase annuities to match the terminated benefits.

His complaint was that he had no say in the matter.? With ordinary debt agreements, the debtor has no right to assign his debt to another debtor, without the assent of the creditor.

In the same way, those that buy policies from insurance companies run the risk that their policies could be sold to a weaker insurance company.

20+ years ago, my friend said there was a simple solution, and I agree with it.? When a financial company takes over the liabilities of another financial company, those who have lent to the original company should have the right to receive their assets back at full value, with no deductions for surrender charges, etc.

This is basic.? Debtors should not be able to assign debts to another party, without the assent of the creditor.

I have seen the same thing recently in this article, as aggressive life insurers buy up policies of less aggressive life insurers.? Those insured should have a way out, as the creditworthiness of the insurer has gone down.

I am arguing that life insurers should not be able to sell their liabilities without the insured having an option to cash out at full value.? I realize that this would limit valuations among life insurers, but so what?? The basics of what is fair in debtor/creditor relations should prevail.? Big insurance companies should not have a different set of rules than would be common to other debtor/creditor relationships.

Industry Ranks August 2013

Posted on 7 August 2013 by David Merkel

My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the question, ?Where are trends under-discounted?? Price momentum tends to persist, but look for areas where it might be even better in the near term.

If you are a value player, look at the green zone, and ask where trends are over-discounted. Yes, things are bad, but are they all that bad? Perhaps the is room for mean reversion.

My candidates from both categories are in the column labeled ?Dig through.?

You might notice that this time, I have no industries from the red zone.? That is because the market is so high.? I only want to play in cold industries.? They won?t get so badly hit in a decline, and they might have some positive surprises.

If you use any of this, choose what you use off of your own trading style. If you trade frequently, stay in the red zone. Trading infrequently, play in the green zone ? don?t look for momentum, look for mean reversion.? I generally play in the green zone because I hold stocks for 3 years on average.

Whatever you do, be consistent in your methods regarding momentum/mean-reversion, and only change methods if your current method is working well.

Huh? Why change if things are working well? I?m not saying to change if things are working well. I?m saying don?t change if things are working badly. Price momentum and mean-reversion are cyclical, and we tend to make changes at the worst possible moments, just before the pattern changes. Maximum pain drives changes for most people, which is why average investors don?t make much money.

Maximum pleasure when things are going right leaves investors fat, dumb, and happy ? no one thinks of changing then. This is why a disciplined approach that forces changes on a portfolio is useful, as I do 3-4 times a year. It forces me to be bloodless and sell stocks with less potential for those with more potential over the next 1-5 years.

I like some technology names here, some telecom related, some basic materials names, particularly those that are strongly capitalized.

I?m looking for undervalued industries. I?m not saying that there is always a bull market out there, and I will find it for you. But there are places that are relatively better, and I have done relatively well in finding them.

At present, I am trying to be defensive. I don?t have a lot of faith in the market as a whole, so I am biased toward the green zone, looking for mean-reversion, rather than momentum persisting. The red zone is pretty cyclical at present. I will be very happy hanging out in dull stocks for a while.

That said, some dull companies are fetching some pricey valuations these days, particularly those with above average dividends.? This is an overbought area of the market, and it is just a matter of time before the flight to relative safety reverses.

The Red Zone has a Lot of Financials; be wary of those.? I?m considering paring back my insurers.

What I find fascinating about the red momentum zone now, is that it is loaded with noncyclical companies. That said, it has been recently noted in a few places how cyclicals are trading at a discount to noncyclicals at present.

In the green zone, I picked most of the industries. If the companies are sufficiently well-capitalized, and the valuation is low, it can still be an rewarding place to do due diligence.

That said, it is tough when noncyclical companies are relatively expensive to cyclicals in a weak economy. Choose your poison: high valuations, or growth that may disappoint.

But what would the model suggest?

Ah, there I have something for you, and so long as Value Line does not object, I will provide that for you. I looked for companies in the industries listed, but in the top 5 of 9 balance sheet safety categories, an with returns estimated over 15%/year over the next 3-5 years. The latter category does the value/growth tradeoff automatically. I don?t care if returns come from mean reversion or growth.

But anyway, as a bonus here are the names that are candidates for purchase given this screen. Remember, this is a launching pad for due diligence, not hot names to buy.

I’ve loosened my criteria a little because the market is so high, but I figure I will toss out? lot when i do my quarterly evaluation of the companies that I hold for clients and me.

Advice to Two Readers

Posted on 3 August 2013 by David Merkel

I get a lot of requests for advice.? Here are two of them.

David,

?I really appreciate you discussing your trading/haggling strategies in the Education of a Corporate Bond Manager. ?It’s definitely given me new ideas and helped me get better pricing in my purchases the last couple of years. ?I still refer to them every few months or so.

I have a question about changing jobs in the fixed income industry – I work in a treasury division, managing my company’s cash and short-term investments. ?I’ve done well, but we use yield-based benchmarks, as part of the portfolio is used to immunize short term liabilities. ?When I interview with asset management shops, they want previous total return portfolio management experience. ? ?

Do you know any particular types of firms or sub-industries that use yield-based benchmarks? ?Does managing to a yield benchmark stunt my learning growth compared to a total return mandate?

Yield-based benchmarks exist when:

The liability structure being invested against is short (We could need this cash at any moment for business use!)
The liability structure is long, but well-defined, such as a bank or insurer that wants predictable income versus their liabilities, and so the game becomes maximize spread net of default costs, subject to matching asset and liability durations (and maybe partial durations if the liability stream is long).

You are doing the first of these.? Truth, what you are doing could be measured on a total return basis, but it wouldn?t make a lot of difference.

The second one applies to banks and insurers, and can be done on either basis as well.? The difficulty comes with trying to calculate the total return of the liabilities. ??If that it too hard to do, they create a bond benchmark that they think represents when they think the liabilities may pay out.? If the liabilities possess some degree of optionality, like that of residential mortgage prepayment, the benchmark could include bond options (long or short).

The yield on the bond benchmark is easy to calculate, as is the total return.?? Thus relative performance can be calculated either way.? I had to do this for an insurance client once who insisted that our performance was poor when we had returned more than 0.70% year more than single-A corporate, which was quite good.

Thus, one place you could try working is for is an insurer, bank, or other financial intermediary.? But what of those that manage funds for retail.? What then?

Aside from unconstrained funds, even a mutual fund has a liability to invest against ? the expectations of the client.? In that sense, most mutual fund managers aren?t doing full total return either ? they have to stay within a certain range for interest rate sensitivity. They also could be evaluated on the basis of yield realized versus that of a generic portfolio meeting their interest rate sensitivity targets.? More commonly, they would be ranked against their competitors on a total return basis.

In closing, it you don?t want to manage money for a bank or insurer, you?ll have to try to wedge your way into work in a total return environment ? taking a junior level position, and showing competence.? Believe me, most firms would love to promote from inside, if possible.

Sincerely,

David

Dear Mr. David Merkel,

I really appreciate your hard work you are putting in your site and I am an avid reader of it. I would like to seek your advice regarding a decision I am facing. My goal is become a value investor and establish my own asset management firm to manage my own money and other people’s money. Right now, I have the opportunity to pursue partnership in my family business and be able to run it along with my father. I am 23 years old, and I am a freshman student at the _+_+_+_+_.? If I am to be a partner in my family business, I have to drop out from the university and travel to +_+_+_+_+_+_+_, where the business is. I am still a freshman student because when I was 19 years old, I dropped out to establish my own business in the same industry as my family in +_+_+_+_+_. I had an experience running a business and I had the opportunity to sell my business after two years of operation to my cousins, and, thankfully, it was a profitable venture.

My family business is somehow facing sales shrinkage and cash flow problem due to low capital (my family made terrible mistakes in managing it) and economic downturn. They are specialty contractors and manufacturers of fenestration products (windows, doors, kitchens, curtain walls, and rolling shutters). If I am to work with them, I can be able to help them in reorganizing the company. It might be risky for me, but if everything worked out well enough, I will have earnings that I believe is better than being an employee.

I am facing a decision that I need to make. You might not be able to advice me, but whatever advice you give me, I appreciate it. If my goal is to manage my own money and other people’s money by establishing my own asset management firm, is it helpful to have a university degree or the experience of having ran a business? Shall I drop out and pursue my family business opportunity? If I am to continue studying, I will incur student loan debt which I won’t prefer. But, alas, I will do it if it need be to accomplish my goal. Thank you a lot.

You have my sympathies on two fronts:

1) Choosing between family obligations and personal goals is never easy.? I have had to face that in deciding what jobs I could take while raising my family.? I was recruited for a managing director position in an investment bank in the mid-90s, but passed it up because I could not peel away that much time from my family and church.? It took a lot of time for me to become an institutional investor as a result.? I became an investment actuary at the age of 31, started working in an investment department at age 37, started work at a hedge fund at age 42, and started my own firm at age 49.? By 49, I had more than enough assets to care for my family if my business failed, at least to put the kids through college.?? After that, I could be stretched.

2) Good operational businessmen can be very good investors.? There are synergies between the ability to operate a business, and the ability to make good investment decisions.? Don?t think that building another business is a waste of your time.? It will sharpen you in ways that most institutional investors never grasp.? I benefited a great deal from building profitable business within insurance companies, and it sharpened my knowledge on how to invest.

Now, all that said, if you take time out to rebuild your family?s business, don?t neglect your education.? Read good books on value investing, and study those who have been great.? I?m not saying that college is useless, but I am saying that much of the knowledge that academics teach on economics is deficient.? In some ways, it is better to be a clever businessman than an academically trained man.? The latter will not gain much insight into how to invest.? The businessman has a better chance.

Perhaps a good compromise would be to study for the CFA credential in your spare time.? I did that.? Along with that, invest some of your money in ideas that you think are worthy.? I did that from 1992-2003, before I began investing in stocks professionally, and I did very well.

You need to find out whether you have significant insights versus the rest of the markets.? Academic learning will not help that.? Operational business experience *might* help that.

Don?t give up your goal of managing your own value investing firm, but realize that there are many paths to getting there, and the most important thing is trying to develop insight into the markets that others don?t have.? Typically, academic study does not develop that.

I hope things work out for you.? Let me know how you do.

Sincerely,

David