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Advice For Would-be Bloggers

Advice For Would-be Bloggers

Today I read the following article 2014 Resolution: This Year, I Will Blog.? Good article, and it features useful advice from Susan Weiner, who writes the blog Investment Writing.? I think highly of Susan, and we are having her come speak to the Baltimore CFA Society on March 24th.? Writing is not so well-learned among many investment analysts, and employers of analysts would like to see better quality writing out of their employees.

But in response to the blogging article, I would like to give a few tips on blogging.? Most of these won’t be very profound, but there is basic “blocking and tackling” to do if you want to be a good blogger.

1) Choose the periodicity of your blogging.? Will it be multiple times per day, once a day, a few times per week, once a week, a few times a month, or monthly?? I think that is the limit in terms of keeping the attention of readers — you can’t blog less than monthly.

Now, the less frequently you blog, the higher the quality has to be.? Length is not an issue here.? Post length is not correlated with quality.? Make your thoughts and words count.? There is no prize for number of words.? There are only prizes for value added.

One more thing: once you choose how often you want to blog, stick with it.? Regularity is needed to establish an audience.

2) Define the area in which you want to blog.? What is your differential insight?? Where are your thoughts strongest versus the consensus?? There are relatively few bloggers that can cover a wide area.? (And as one that does cover a wide area, it means that posts covering different areas may not interest some of your readers.)

3) Start small.? You don’t have to write masterpieces from day one.? Commenting on articles that you excerpt can be a great way to begin.

Another great way is to start assembling linkfests a la Abnormal Returns.? You will not likely do better than Tadas, but I have seen many small linkfests that are worth reading.

4) Ask who your target audience is.? Are you aiming at professionals, intelligent amateurs, or Joe Lunchpail?? Then tailor your language to fit the audience, as well as your choice of topics.

Also remember that other bloggers and journalists may link to you, so consider what your extended audience might be like.? (I’ve seen my articles translated into so many languages that I have lost count.? I never thought that would happen.)

5) Get ready to be hurt.? The internet is a cruel place, and there is all manner of anonymous backbiting that goes on.? But there are way to minimize it:

  • Have a comments policy, and block people from commenting who violate it.
  • Be humble in your writing; more attacks come to those who are brash.
  • Double-check what you say before clicking “publish.”
  • When you are wrong, own up to it.? That establishes credibility, it does not destroy it.
  • Avoid profanity.? Bloggers that use profanity attract a bad crowd of commenters.

6) Reach out to other bloggers.? Link to good stuff from other bloggers, and when you write something good, send a copy to bloggers you respect (not too often).? Respect the time of leading bloggers, and only send the best.

7) Use Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook to expand your distribution.?? Social media can enhance your influence; just be sure not to annoy your readers.

8 ) Be ready for the long haul.? Don’t enter into this unless you are thinking of doing this for years.? Of the major bloggers I knew back in 2007 when I started Aleph Blog, most of them are still in the game, and they are still hot stuff.? But I have seen many promising bloggers put out a few significant posts and fold.? It is like what Jesus said [Luke 14:28-33]:

For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it??lest, after he has laid the foundation, and is not able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him,?saying, ?This man began to build and was not able to finish???Or what king, going to make war against another king, does not sit down first and consider whether he is able with ten thousand to meet him who comes against him with twenty thousand??Or else, while the other is still a great way off, he sends a delegation and asks conditions of peace. So likewise, whoever of you does not forsake all that he has cannot be My disciple.

Think about what it will cost you to blog before you start doing it.? Figure out what you can sustainably do without destroying important relationships that you have.? Blogging is about consistency, not occasional genius.

9) Don’t worry about your writing skills.? They will improve over time.? Oh, if you could read the turgid stuff that I wrote thirty years ago.? Between a writing Nazi who was my boss at AIG, and writing for RealMoney, my writing style improved dramatically as an adult.? Hint: Flesch Test your writing, and use the grammar and spelling checkers within Microsoft Word.? Aim for language that high schoolers should be able to read.

10) Every time you write, look into your heart and ask what you feel strongest about.? Then write about it, and be bold (yet still humble).? (Catch the balance.)

Summary

Blogging is not easy, but it is rewarding.? It may help you build a business.? It may gain new friends for you.

You won’t be perfect from the start, but aim for continuous improvement.? Aim to be “good enough,” and improve from there.

If you try and need advice, feel free to e-mail me.? I will try to aid you in what limited time I have.? After all, I write long blog posts once a day on average.

May you prosper more than me, and achieve far more.? May I see your name five years from now, a star, and say, “I knew him when…”

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Politics

 

  • Bernanke Letter Defends Fed Actions http://t.co/COYtCtzg Hope the election brings enough change that we end up w/a fresh Fed Chairman $$ Aug 25, 2012
  • Private equity tax questions for Mitt Romney http://t.co/hXaAu0sR 1) Carried interest 2) Corporate interest deductions 3)Mgmt fee waivers $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Sorry, Henry Blodget, You’re Wrong About Election 2012 http://t.co/5DghXuzI Religious Conservatives r viewed as suckers 2 support the GOP $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Obama Supporter Suggests Anti-Mormon Whisper Campaign http://t.co/ism2YbbR Too obvious. Democrats pay Evangelicals to describe Mormonism $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • The Treasury?s Oversimplified View of Its Mortgage Relief Effort http://t.co/cwm1rrX8 The program did wonderful things… for the banks $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Top six myths about Medicare http://t.co/qKYGtsLT Mostly correct but #3 brings lower quality & #6 is wrong, see: http://t.co/WvPr4giZ $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • White House Worked With Buyout Firm to Save Plant http://t.co/KPKHvZC5 Government help to get deals done begets more of the same $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Consider keeping Bernanke, top Romney adviser says http://t.co/3Kp575gA This is rhetoric, if Romney is elected, Hubbard will chair Fed $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Is BUBB (breaking up the big banks) now a ?conservative imperative? ? http://t.co/exRI726x I like $BAC so much; there should b 50 of them $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Why Democrats think taxes will need to rise by more than 50% http://t.co/VUlfCM6K Entitlements will drive change in America but what change? Aug 21, 2012
  • How the tea party beat Occupy Wall Street http://t.co/SAUzzNog No contest. The t-party organized politically, & #OWS didn’t $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Lanai owner Larry Ellison used tax loopholes for payouts http://t.co/la7HJMh6 The problem isn’t Larry, it’s the politicians’ bad tax code $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • The Real Conservative Opportunity This November http://t.co/m5nXtCUH Urges Republicans 2 champion banking reform. $$ #nixonwent2china Aug 20, 2012
  • Effective protest requires wide organization and general respect for the property rights of others, which these three women did not have $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Fannie and Freddie: The Walking Dead http://t.co/u0Y4CgAt Fannie & Freddie may be dead, but the US Govt’s role in housing is not dead $$ Aug 19, 2012

 

Companies

?

  • There?s Warren Buffett ? and then there?s the rest of us http://t.co/rgMH0kjX The new paper on Buffett’s investing has gotten attention $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Take that Square! eBay still a leader in mobile payments http://t.co/CxHkNQkG Am I wrong, or is most of the value of $EBAY in Paypal? $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Yellow Pages’ Last Lifeline: Clinging to Each Other http://t.co/X347LfLD $DEXO $SPMD hit sell button, internet destroys yellow pages $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • The Beginning of the End of Print: The Lessons of an Amazingly Prescient 1992 WaPo Memo http://t.co/hVa62p0A No one listened 2 Cassandra $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Last tweet FD: long $PSX . Frankly I’m surprised that an oil refiner, transporter, marketer would help come up w/an advance on solar $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Phillips 66, South China U of Technology, & Solarmer Energy Set a World Record in Solar Power Conversion Efficiency http://t.co/95ND020R $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Zynga Spurning Sale Strands Owners @ Worst Web Value http://t.co/zrKw0fjv Remember u r a outside minority investor. Choose mgmts w/care $$ Aug 22, 2012

http://t.co/xW9zcuWY $AMZN does amazing things as nonprofit $$ Aug 21, 2012

  • Monsanto Genetic ?X-Ray Glasses? Speed Tastier Tomatoes http://t.co/AJQZDJY9 Interesting comment thread, no one defending $MON $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Facebook Shares: Still Too Pricey http://t.co/z38X4OsZ The lack of a reliable revenue model makes $FB a buy at prices ~$9-15 $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Barnes & Noble Falls After Second Straight Nook Sales Drop http://t.co/nWNxr3Pw $BKS losing to $AMZN . Slow-motion train wreck $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Up Against Retail Giant Amazon, BufferBox Aims to Jump-Start Parcel Delivery http://t.co/MhW35CeB Any of these should team up w/USPS $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Amazon Wins Race to the Bottom With Radical Pricing on Long-Term Data Storage
  • Facebook Investors Brace for More Shares Coming to Market http://t.co/GE7usIDt Test of how much insiders truly believe in Facebook $FB $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Aetna to Acquire Coventry Health Care http://t.co/sFRdRDv3 The People’s Republic of Maryland loses another large company $$ #BDK #USFG Aug 20, 2012
  • Stocks: The ‘Lockup’ Effect http://t.co/SG5sZIXL A lesson learned during the dot-com bubble is forgotten & must b re-learned. $$ #lockup Aug 18, 2012

 

Financial Markets

 

  • Stock Market Indicators http://t.co/sf0D3BDY Interesting take from the normally bullish Ed Yardeni $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Hedge funds are betting on disaster http://t.co/dDtO6Cd3 Maybe some hedge funds r putting on “big shorts” through CDS, but most avoid vol $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • ‘Insider Trucking’ Drives Strategy at J.P. Morgan Fund http://t.co/JZyRVZ5P This brings “bottoms up” analysis to a much lower bottom $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • The bond bubble still has room to grow http://t.co/DNM9teW1 High yield bond defaults typically peak 2-3 years after issuance peaks $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • FDIC files lawsuit tied to failed bank RMBS investments http://t.co/63GYJ7Zn I know many investors that did due diligence & avoided the prob Aug 22, 2012
  • The Profession’s Faulty Assumptions: A Top Ten List http://t.co/lAeCIRzq A worthy article displaying common errors for financial planners $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Wrong: Why hedge funds may not be right for you http://t.co/SdPmZeRN Only global macro benefits from volatility, other HFs like calm $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Is Your Credit-Card Company Secretly Screwing You Over? http://t.co/7ptHex0g Excellent advice from @eddyelfenbein . Follow it & prosper $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Goodbye, Growth. Hello, Dividends. http://t.co/AO2STJhx Companies pay divs get more efficient w/capital. Doesn’t slow growth much $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • When Wall Street Watchdogs Hunt Whistle-Blowers http://t.co/YyY6UREt Really a sad article. Try to do the right thing & many fight u $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • A Flock of Black Swans http://t.co/ClDRJYho Study history & other cultures &u may find possible some things considered impossible by many $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Russell To Close All But One Of Its ETFs http://t.co/wjKsHrEp A trend that I think will come to most marginal ETF providers $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Calpers Defends Pension Benefits While Risking Losses http://t.co/1nnyYD7t CALPERS relishes its importance, but not its performance $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Five Myths about Glass-Steagall http://t.co/hgzzPkgM What’s the other side of the argument here? The Fed was hollowing out G-S b4 GLB $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Revisiting Stocks For The Long Run http://t.co/b1Dz4mOk DIfficulty of using & rolling the 30-yr Tsy… it’s a very special bond $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Wrong: Six Investment Moves to Make Now http://t.co/kkoarfR8 Reads like this: missed the rally, so take more risk now to make up 4 it $$ Aug 18, 2012

 

China

 

  • China Confronts Mounting Piles of Unsold Goods http://t.co/qXaOoX0h As w/any command & control economy, eventually get gluts & shortages $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • How China Sees America http://t.co/Cv0d61KI Believe US a revisionist power, seeks2curtail China’s political influence & harm its interests Aug 24, 2012
  • Caterpillar Cuts China Production as Digger Slump Reaches Mining http://t.co/Rprs0FS2 China’s coming slump has ripple effects $$ $CAT Aug 24, 2012
  • China Has Become One Big “Stuffed Channel” http://t.co/aAFwHUyj Strategies of promoting exports & forced industrialization have failed $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Weak Demand Drags on Chinese Carmakers, Earnings Growth Stalls http://t.co/dvIrhc0D China slowing rapidly, also c http://t.co/po7PVA3a $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • For China, Too Much Steel Isn’t Enough http://t.co/af9MjbWT Economic growth happens when actions expand options 4 society as a whole $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • China’s Brewing Pension Crisis http://t.co/pHq4Ijgg Still at $3T, it’s a lot smaller than what the developed nations r facing $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • China Reluctance on Reserve Cut Signals Inflation Concern http://t.co/WcH0kKkM If inflation starts running in China, the game changes $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • China?s Yuan Decades From Challenging Dollar http://t.co/J3hmRaID It takes a long time to create deep/transparent capital markets $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • China Said to Order Action by Banks as Developer Loans Sour http://t.co/EUj63rb3 This is a liquidity crisis, not a solvency crisis, NOT $$ Aug 18, 2012

 

Money Market Funds

?

  • Statement Regarding Money Market Funds by Commissioner Luis A. Aguilar http://t.co/6RNScb0L Well-thought out dissent on MMFs. Good job $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Wrong: The lurking dangers in money market funds http://t.co/q2X3gSe8 Another scare piece. MMFs are more stable than banks $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Just sent Mary Shapiro my compromise proposal on money market funds. Hope she grabs it and runs with it http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Big Blow for Money-Fund Overhaul http://t.co/jnRnfA97 Yay! No changes for MMFs, which are better managed than banks. $$ Aug 23, 2012

?

Municipal Bonds

?

  • The 5 Biggest Muni Defaults Ever http://t.co/BlqI96wY Instructive. CA & OH tobacco bonds, Jefferson County, AL, American Air & WPPSS $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Should Muni Investors Follow Buffett to the Exits? http://t.co/6w7wgnzg Sound advice: B selective, only buy what funds necessity $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • U.S. muni market riled by Fed report on defaults http://t.co/6XC0OmS8 Corrects many false impressions generated by the NY Fed muni piece $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • School district debt, representing lgst % of California net par insured (35.5%), is ineligible for Chapter 9 BK http://t.co/TU0uG87h $$ $AGO Aug 22, 2012
  • Buffett?s Exit From Muni-Bonds Signals Trouble Ahead 4 Local Govts http://t.co/Ay9eG3uj Don’t think so; Buffett still owns lotsa munis $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Meredith Whitney?s Muni Prediction Gets No Boost From Fed http://t.co/hVWiQBrx Fed study focused on risky areas, non-rated & IDBs $$ Aug 21, 2012

 

Other

 

  • College Tuition’s 1120% Increase http://t.co/632ueDsX Outstrips even the rising cost medical services $$ Graph: http://t.co/bvYQljFC Aug 24, 2012
  • The closing of American academia http://t.co/MTQjCPQv Adjunct professors earn little&teach a lot. But getting a PhD in Anthropology: Fail $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Lawyer separates variable annuity investor & annuitant, allowing him 2 benefit from the deaths of sick people http://t.co/C2xwCtRc $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • My Last Post – Arnold Kling http://t.co/YvJPt3RH One of the best hangs up his blogging. It’s the way of the internet, ephemeral $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Blind Mice Given Sight After Device Cracks Retinal Code http://t.co/pIaxnTtH Looks like a huge advance $$ #goodnews Aug 23, 2012
  • Wrong: How algorithms will help us spend, spend, spend http://t.co/of3Bhyll People will start blocking it, like telemarketers $$ #FTL #fail Aug 21, 2012
  • Hopes for Chestnut Revival Growing http://t.co/Y58WfC9n Efforts to restore the chestnut tree seem to be succeeding $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Historians, rather than mathematicians usually make better economic predictions, but that’s not saying much… http://t.co/db7NDOKf Aug 20, 2012

 

Eurozone

 

  • Greek Crisis Evasion to Fore as Merkel Hosts Hollande http://t.co/wlXKlz8h Not sure how this will lead to a long-term solution $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Last Man Standing Means Europe Investment Banks Resist Cuts http://t.co/eIauqQj1 Total capacity must fall, the survivors get better biz $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Wrong: Spain and Italy Are (Probably) Fine http://t.co/5jiC6zRQ Add in the social welfare obligations & dysfunctional politics $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Finnish Euro Doubts Hide Business Plea to Commit to Currency http://t.co/rDbf5isL Euro weak 4 core EZ countries, & 2 strong 4 EZ-fringe $$ Aug 20, 2012

 

Around the World

 

  • First Solar to Build India Farms as Outages Propel Sun Power http://t.co/MJGiIrhj Sunshine is more reliable than India’s electric grid $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • The ECB: Europe’s Conditional Bank http://t.co/6abGujtg “these ideas fail to take account of a key ECB requirement: conditionality.” $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • A Tax Revolt in Japan, and a Bond Bubble Too http://t.co/CoL7Ticw Unrealistic view; financial claims exceed Japanese resources $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • What a Tangled Financial Web Terrorist Networks Weave http://t.co/84eBN6Mc In a networked era, difficult2avoid leaving digital breadcrumbs Aug 22, 2012
  • “The FSA warned that its [risk] survey results were based on self-assessments by individual [hedge fund] managers” http://t.co/KWb6ktQy $$ Aug 21, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Think Gas Prices Are Bad Now? http://t.co/l4srlshm Between Iran & refinery outages, gas prices are rising particularly on the coasts $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • The Exquisite Symmetry of the Natural Gas Revolution http://t.co/QSit1HWT 10 points on how cheap natural gas is an aid 2 the economy $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Methanol Wins http://t.co/yYP0Z1Qp Interesting experiment fueling a car w/methanol did not take much effort, cheaper & cleaner $$ Aug 20, 2012

 

Comments

 

  • “None of the things you mentioned are markets. The article above is about manipulating markets, not?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/OcU9gn4O Aug 25, 2012
  • Tropical storm Isaac is likely to miss Tampa anyway, storm is consistently moving west of the forecast track of NOAA $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Haiti has trouble w/rain & 40 mph winds, much less 60 mph $$ RT @AnnieLowrey: Forget Tampa. Pray for Haiti. http://t.co/eJBxmukv Aug 24, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro Thanks 4 passing the article along; some of those benefit designs are astounding $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • @BubblesandBusts I don’t think so Aug 24, 2012
  • @AnaCapMgmt Very good points. There are others trying to do things his way, but difficult 2 manage an insurance investing conglomerate $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan Yes, and here it is: http://t.co/SqXcFiqI Aug 24, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview The only way medical costs will decline is to move to a first-party payer system. When its your ow? http://t.co/Dzjy8j6b Aug 24, 2012
  • “Impossible to manipulate markets without leaving accounting trial. Conspiracies r bunk.” http://t.co/WaXMpySm http://t.co/TPnCsHiB $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • RT @fundmyfund: again why is Japan stock market not up 100% of %,they did many QEs and CB can buy equity assets there.Its mostly psychol … Aug 24, 2012
  • plus ?a change, plus c’est la m?me chose $$ RT @munilass: So Glenn Hubbard has started blogging and Arnold Kling is giving it up. Egads. Aug 24, 2012
  • @rajivatbarnard Nice piece. Did not know you had written it, because my RSS reader broke 2 months ago & I have not rebuilt it yet $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • @ShawnMcFarlane My proposal makes MMF holders take losses in bites, and avoids “runs of funds.” U can read it here: http://t.co/vuNGATPK Aug 24, 2012
  • RT @merrillmatter: @ShawnMcFarlane @alephblog I disagree. They should not be FDIC insured and should be allowed to ‘break buck’ on occasion. Aug 24, 2012
  • @politicoroger Isaac may hit the gulf coast on FL panhandle or further west. God is not man or woman, but he represents himself as a man Aug 24, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview Hasn’t worked so far. Doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results $$ http://ww? http://t.co/tIOtLhYh Aug 23, 2012
  • @nereidadin Yes, no response yet Aug 23, 2012
  • @foxjust Just sent it off to her. Commented on her article, but Reuters is having issues w/blogs and comments these days Aug 23, 2012
  • @SallieKrawcheck @Reuters Would you be willing to review my compromise proposal on money market funds? http://t.co/6vrVXVGS Thanks. Aug 23, 2012
  • @foxjust Been pushing this idea for 3 years, have sent it to the SEC, but I’m a disinterested nobody. Felix Salmon liked it, as have others Aug 23, 2012
  • @eisingerj Would you be willing to look at my compromise proposal on MMFs, & tell me what you think? http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @foxjust Would you be willing to look at my compromise proposal on MMFs, & tell me what you think? http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @merrillmatter I’ve even heard that Dihydrogen Monoxide is making is way into the water supplies! $$ #help #thereisalwaysenoughtimetopanic Aug 23, 2012
  • @TFMkts @The_Analyst Good points, seems to be more mkt timing than disaster, though I know of some putting on CDS trades. Pay prem & hope $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @munilass Yes, that’s correct, but I could not fit that in. Aug 23, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Really seems like Romney was on the aggressive side of legal on taxes, but his investments aren’t unusual for a rich guy $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Do I have this right then: a company that Romney invested in was 1 of the lenders through CLOs to American Media Operations? $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap Thanks for the praise. I just try to write about what is most motivating to me on any given night Aug 23, 2012
  • @moorehn Read some of the comment letters at the SEC, a non-stable public NAV 4 MMFs would cause significant harm to users. $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @Dvolatility Yes, I heard, that was a decade or so in the making. Actuaries sometimes joke that we keep GASB around 2 make FASB look good $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @Dvolatility does that affect Poway School district’s ability to service their debt? Yes, data quality varies more with munis than corps Aug 22, 2012
  • @Dvolatility don’t knowhow to bring their thinking up a level of complexity, and say, if CA is in trouble, and San Diego County, then how + Aug 22, 2012
  • @Dvolatility Just read a few articles on overlapping debt. Interesting; love to learn. I think some investors don’t look at it b/c they + Aug 22, 2012
  • @Dvolatility Yes, but I am not an expert on it; as investors go, I am a generalist Aug 22, 2012
  • @Dvolatility What do you mean by overlapping? I just found it interesting that CA schools can’t use BK Ch 9… Aug 22, 2012
  • RT @TheStalwart: In the old days, the idea that None Of The Above could actually ‘win’ (thus making an office go unfilled) was promoted … Aug 22, 2012
  • RT @historysquared: The $Fed is like the frustrated driver who keeps pumping gas into a car that won’t start, eventually flooding the en … Aug 22, 2012
  • @GaelicTorus I might be inclined to the bank debt of $ZNGA or $GRPN. No way $FB goes broke; it has a franchise $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • @joshuademasi I’m saying that Japanese society has not yet come to grips with its inability to fund future promises, that’s all $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Clever and not what I expected $$ RT @AnnieLowrey: “But at least now we know.” http://t.co/mh5Ldk62 Aug 22, 2012
  • Just finished complex stock screening: 28 candidates, auto parts, airlines, insurers, regional banks, infotech, retail, etc. $$ #bizarre Aug 22, 2012
  • “At that price, bondholders will scour the Globe 4 external assets of Belize, and place liens on them” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/rZGmkSgQ Aug 21, 2012
  • “Maybe they should team up with the US Postal Service. Lotsa locations, and they need $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/lKe9ShxQ Aug 21, 2012
  • @LarryThompson5 Historically, successful political movements do 1 of 2 things: form a 3rd party, or gain influence over1 of the parties $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • @LarryThompson5 I would agree w/u that #OWS is not Dem-driven. Some tried to use it, couldn’t figure out how, vs repubs co-opting t-party $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Catch my comment http://t.co/FHwMSyLX Yes, 4 2 reasons RT @ritholtz: Is Pension-Plan Shift Into Bonds Permanent? http://t.co/OWjdqPjH $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • @WatersLogan Good, keep it up. 12% of my readers are Canadian. Aug 21, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Here it is: http://t.co/fBvKxQXq Aug 21, 2012
  • @TheStalwart I wrote a data-intensive post on the Poway School Distirict, and you didn’t post it to BI, but lesser posts did make it to BI. Aug 21, 2012
  • @ETFProfessor1 I understand and that is fine. Aug 21, 2012
  • @e_d_sanders I’m interested in stopping the next crisis; I would like to end interstate branching, and hand regulation back to the states $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • @milktrader Thanks, nice to know it is not just me. Aug 20, 2012
  • Anyone else finding Yahoo Finance to be squirrelly now? $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • @ritholtz I live near Baltimore. B4 my father-in-law died, wud visit in-laws in La Jolla every few years. Wife’s favorite beach near Romney Aug 20, 2012
  • I know I have walked past it; didn’t know Romney owned it $$ RT @ritholtz: Mitt Romneys water front LaJolla shack http://t.co/ee8AwnEN Aug 20, 2012
  • @asymmetricinfo Most homeschoolers in Howard County, MD r secular, many r liberal; the schools r not performing well; HS kids get peer time2 Aug 20, 2012
  • RT @asymmetricinfo: Why worry homeschool kids won’t get socialized? It’s spending most of your time around a mob of your own age that is … Aug 20, 2012
  • As a class yes, some won’t gain critical mass $$ RT @GaelicTorus: but bond etf doing ok, right? low costs, asset growth – as a class Aug 20, 2012
  • Too much honesty there $$ RT @RNPJHP: @The_Analyst @AlephBlog RBC Dominion told me they can’t make 5% returns on client’s money! Aug 20, 2012
  • @wesbury @ 1st Tsy-blogger summit, I encouraged the high-level people there to do that, & what are they considering now — floaters! $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • @ETFProfessor1 You would probably know better than me. It seems economics of running a bunch small funds is poor. Open to your thoughts $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • @abnormalreturns I would consider $FB @ around $8, a touch over book value and a PEEG ratio of 50%, mainly b/c revenue model is unclear $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan I knew you were being sarcastic, just wanted to flesh out my thoughts further Aug 20, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan Of course that’s easier; I use a technique like that to try to deal w/high growth situations that r uncertain $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Hard to compete against $AMZN, which doesn’t have an immediate profit motive. $BKS http://t.co/SC5gA1Ps Aug 20, 2012
  • “Corporate spread tightening is highly correlated w/VIX, another reason $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/R9vTpa7s $$ http://t.co/M7X60pC5 Aug 20, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan I would try this 4 $AAPL — est mkt size @ maturity, time 2 maturity, value of biz then & discount @ 12% 2 get NPV/sh $$ #swag Aug 20, 2012
  • “Almost no one arrives early to a fad/motif, so investing of this sort is likely to lose.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/yCJ0K9SY $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Much wisdom from Mr. Berra $$ RT @JATranfo: @AlephBlog As Yogi said, “Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.” Aug 20, 2012
  • “I get surprised by what gets attention when I write. To have two pieces on the top 10 list is?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/UpaKEY0I $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview Pray tell, what interest does Putin have in liberalizing? Current system favors his retention of p? http://t.co/RjR8WI0C Aug 20, 2012
  • @geronimo2003 It means that mortgage bonds will lose net demand, but F&F will still gtee conforming MBS. Pvt sector can absorb supply $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • +1 Well done $$ RT @AmityShlaes: Lobsters as metaphor for everything, including Obama trade policy: http://t.co/qDn83Fqs Aug 19, 2012
  • @StockTwits got the ticker wrong. Mosaic is $MOS , Monsanto is $MON . Both in agriculture… $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • @prchovanec They should listen to Pettis, Walter, & Shih also Aug 18, 2012
  • @prchovanec If they are listening to you, that is good for all of us. $$ Aug 18, 2012
Got Cash?

Got Cash?

Ecclesiastes 10:19 (NKJV)

A feast is made for laughter, And wine makes merry; But money answers everything.

 

There has been a small flurry of posts off of James Montier’s piece on the virtues of cash.? I wrote a piece like it recently (not as comprehensive, but possessing brevity): Chasing Your Tail Risk.

Like gold, cash is special because it doesn’t do anything.? Even money market funds do nothing, or almost nothing.? It just sits there, waiting.? It waits for the day when the Fed is forced to raise rates because inflation is running faster, even though the economy is still underemployed.? It waits for the day when bond yields rise and stock prices fall, where there are good opportunities to use the cash.

Having cash on hand allowed my church to buy a building cheaply in March 2009, and allowed me to help rescue a friends business, as well as buy some cheap stocks.? The same was true for me in October 2002, when I fully deployed my cash into stocks.

Cash is flexibility.

Cash says, “I don’t know.”

Cash says, “I don’t care.”

Cash says, “I’m ready.”

When opportunities are numerous, I am more than willing to part with my cash.? But when yields are low, and valuations are high if profit margins mean-revert, I would rather have more of a cash buffer.

For my account, and client accounts, I did buy some stock last week.? If the weakness had persisted, I would have bought more.

I still have an above average amount of cash (for me).? I am waiting for opportunities to get better before I deploy it.

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part XII (The End)

The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part XII (The End)

Tonight I pick up on the odds and ends.? Going along with last night’s theme of making mistakes, we had a saying in our office, “Great minds think alike.? Fools seldom differ.”? It helped us stay humble about our culture.? If we agreed, it might be because we were all bright, or all dumb.

As an aside, one of the brighter associates at the main office pulled me aside to ask about the foolish behavior of the client.? Having worked for a much larger and more professional firm, he was shocked.? I simply said (regarding the client), “It may be a rusty tub, but its OUR rusty tub.”? He gave me the grim smile of understanding.

Timing Purchases and Sales

I developed my own view of technical analysis while trading corporates.? I wrote about it in this post, A Fundamental Approach to Technical Analysis.? Here is the most relevant excerpt:

But not every fundamental investor agrees on what the proper prices are for buying and selling. As the old saying goes, ?It takes two to make a market.? Sometimes, I will make it into the office and my trader will tell me that someone is aggressively selling a company that we own. I might ask him if our brokers have any feel for the size of the seller, and how desperate he is. The answer is usually ?no,? but if we do get an answer, that can help dictate our trading strategy. We would want to buy more as the big seller is closer to being done. In fact, we want to buy his last block of shares from him, if possible. Sometimes that can be arranged by talking to our broker; other times not.

As another aside, this is simpler to do in the bond market than the stock market. The large brokers generally know who is doing what. Be nice to your sales coverages, and you?d be amazed what they will tell you?. Here?s a stylized example.

Broker: ?You sure you want to buy that Washington Mutual bond??

Me: ?Yes, why??

Broker: ?Uh, there?s someone with size selling the name.?

Me: ?How much size??

Broker: ?Best indications are eight times your order size.?

Me: ?I can?t take that much down. Keep me in mind, and when he gets down to about double the size of my order, call me, and I?ll take the tail [everything that?s left].?

Broker: ?You got it.?

There were other rules that helped me. Keeping the VIX on my screen helped me accelerate or slow down purchases and sales in a given day. Yield spreads lag behind option volatility even though the two should be closely related. Momentum of spreads also helped — falling and rising spreads tended to persist, so be more aggressive when the market was hot, and not when it is not. Beyond that, there were credit default swap [CDS] spreads, which were just becoming a factor then. I came to the conclusion that credit spreads moved a lot slower than CDS, so I developed a rule that said, “Don’t buy if CDS is above the credit spread. Wait for the CDS to fall below, then buy.” Worked well, and kept me out of deteriorating situations.

These rules also left me more calm and capable when the market was falling apart.? I also tended to build up a cash buffer when things were going awry, waiting for the eventual turn in the market.

Time Horizons

If I had to summarize it, it boils down to managing three time horizons:

  • Daily — watch daily momentum and deal flow.
  • Weekly-Monthly — how is the momentum going?? Gauge the speculative nature of the market.
  • Credit cycle — where is the credit cycle in heading to the next peak or through?? How long till we get there, and what will it feel like as we near the peak or trough?

Thinking of it this way aids daily trading, and allows for clever trading in bear market rallies, and bull market pullbacks, while still watching the overall macroeconomic credit cycle.? You can’t get all three horizons in full; they fight each other at times.? Doing this means you can more intelligently weigh the costs of action and inaction, because the client needs income, and it helps you determine how long can you delay in providing income in order to avoid capital losses.

The client was growing like a weed.? That made my job easier and harder.? Easier because I could snap up every mispriced bond that was money good.? Harder, because during sharp rallies, I could not let cash build up too much.? I took the opportunity to buy AAA & AA bonds rather than A & BBB bonds, which gave up yield, but it was better than cash.

Scaling

One concept that aided me in trading was realizing that I did not have to be a big trader.? Moving in and out of positions slowly, as market conditions warranted was useful.? If the liquidity was available, and you were facilitating someone else’s bold move, that is another thing.? But the cardinal rule was, “Never demand liquidity unless it is an emergency, and you meet the strenuous test that you know something everyone else does not.? But, make others pay up for liquidity where possible.? You are doing them a service.”

Those ideas affect me today in my equity investing.? Most of the time I do small trades around core positions, and adjust my companies at a slow pace.? I make money while I wait.

Income Replacement

I was the risk manager as well as a corporate bond manager.? I understood that the policies written by the client had implied hurdle rates attached to them.? Selling a bond that was a good buy two years ago would realize a great capital gain, but would lead to a reduction in income most likely upon reinvestment of the proceeds.

The question was, and always will be, how to maximize the long-term well-being of the client.? Short-term gains matter little.? How can you build up a sustainable interest margin is the key.? Thus in my trading I looked at income replacement, adjusted for quality, maturity, liquidity, optionality, premium/discount, and a wide number of lesser variables.? Given that the client foolishly wanted me to trade aggressively, I did so, but matched off interest-rate related gains and losses, while building interest margins.

The End

No good deed goes unpunished.? The neophyte corporate bond manager that excelled was eventually told by his boss in early 2003 that they were losing manager searches because he was not in the home office (far away), and that fund management consultants told them that multi-city firms did not work.? (Those who can’t do, consult.)

I was offered a move to the main office, or be severed.? Hearing this, I went and called my wife, using my cell phone in an out-of-the-way place.? Little did I know that there was a betting line in the main office favoring that I would come by 3-1.? My gift to those who knew me in the main office was that little win, because in early 2003, investment jobs were hard to find, and would I just give my job up?

Well, yes.? I had enough confidence in my abilities (under God/Jesus), that I looked to the needs of my family first.? We had friends that we did not want to give up in our congregation for the first time, and I gave my family the benefit of the doubt, saying that I would try other possibilities in the area for a year or so.

Informally, I let my colleagues in my office know in advance; they were friends.? So on the last day for my decision, I announced that I would take severance.? Then something weird happened.? They left me with trading authority for the next two weeks.? Ordinarily that is cancelled, because the unscrupulous use that to reward friends at the expense of the client.? Rather than do that, I used the opportunity to sell down positions that I was comfortable with, but were too large forthose that would inherit the portfolio I built.? I managed to get all positions but one down to a reasonable level, leaving a clean portfolio for my successor.

Parties

My colleagues in my office took me out for lunch; they gave me a great time.? The analysts came and thanked me because I genuinely listened to them, and never blamed them.? They even told me that I was the only portfolio manager they knew who could be a credit analyst.

A few days before that, Legg Mason took me out to dinner with a few of my colleagues.? I was mystified as to why.? Yes, I had traded with them a lot, but they had given me good value on my trading.? In the middle of the dinner, I said, “This is really nice, guys, but why so much for me?”? They looked at my sales coverage and said, “Didn’t you tell him?”? They picked up and said, “What you don’t know is that your willingness to trade with us allowed us to build up our corporates coverage; without you we would not have a business today.? Also, you were honest with us and kept us from mistakes when we were out of the market context.”

I was floored.? Really?? I did that much for you?? They said, “Whatever we can do for you, just ask.”? I asked for an interview with Bill Miller.? That probably exceeded their notional credit line, because that never happened.

As it was, I landed a job with a wonderful hedge fund, Hovde Capital, in two months, and was very grateful to them for hiring me.

Postscript

There is one story that I left out from the beginning, which still needs to be told.? When our little money management firm was being acquired by an arm of Old Mutual, the CEO of that firm balked at paying our credit analysts the salaries they were receiving, and was really annoyed at the bonus structure.? He said to me and the high yield manager, “Look, the only people I need are the two of you, and we can hire other analysts.”? The two of us knew that our analysts/friends were golden — analysts that would be hard to replace.

The prospective buyer of our little firm called the two of us to a phone conference.? Somehow it leaked to the analysts what was being proposed and when.? As we headed off to the meeting, one analyst who was Jewish, called out to me, “David, don’t forget you are a Christian!”? Surprised, I turned and said, “I won’t.”? What determination I had doubled.

The high yield manager and I went into the teleconference and held our ground.? Then the counterproposal came, “If you want to protect your analysts, are you willing to put your bonuses on the line?”? We looked at each other.? I nodded; he nodded.? I said, “If we don’t meet your expectations as a group, you hit our bonuses first.”

As it was, we did well, and we all got our bonuses.? But it was never lost on the analysts that we put them first, both as colleagues and friends.? It was one big reason why we continued to do great business together.

Though I was only a corporate bond manager for two very special years, where I did well against a tough market, the way I did business helped us to do well, by being ethical above all else.? In a bad environment, that can really help.? Even Wall Street differentiates between who keeps their word and who does not.

I would have loved to continue in that business.? It was a lot of fun, but jobs like that are not handed out willy-nilly.? All that said, I went out knowing that I had done my best, and was ready to do more for my next employer.

Avoid Debt Unless it is to Purchase an Appreciating Asset

Avoid Debt Unless it is to Purchase an Appreciating Asset

I’m generally against debt.? I’ve been debt-free for the past five years.? It allows me to take prudent risks with my investments.? So, when I read things like this in The Economist’s Free Exchange Blog, I shake my head.? Here’s the main quotation:

My friends who study humanities are shocked and do not believe me when I, a pension economist, tell them they should not be saving. Prudent advice has become: You should always save some fraction of your income. You should save not only for retirement, but also for adverse income shocks. But, Mr Becker points out, these new lines of credit help workers cope with income shocks.

The pension economist is wrong, mainly.? So is Dr. Becker.? It is reasonable to take on debt to gain an education for a career that is lucrative; it is not reasonable for something that does not pay well.? Following your heart into a career is a good thing, but if the field doesn’t pay well, don’t saddle yourself with debt to get there.? I know too many young people with large debts in their 20s with no reasonable way to pay them off.? They may be in the field that they love, but they are miserable due to the debt.

It is also reasonable to take on debt for an asset that will appreciate over time at a rate greater than the financing rate on the debt.? Note that I did not say housing here, though that is normally the case.

I counsel all of my kids, and all of my friends to avoid debt where it does not pay, particularly for consumption.? Pay off your credit cards in full each month.? If you can’t do that, cut up your credit cards, and learn to make do without them.

The advantage in life always comes to the man who has surplus, who receives a discount for paying upfront, rather than over time.? You should live below your means, and build up a buffer against the future.? Theoreticians like Dr. Becker essentially say, “Don’t worry, they’ll loan you the money.”? Ridiculous.? First, if they do loan, it is at horrendous rates.? Second, during a credit crunch, all cheap sources of financing disappear for all but the most creditworthy borrowers.? Credit disappears when you need it most.

Saving at young ages sets the tone for the rest of life.? The lifecycle saving hypothesis (of Milton Friedman) is wrong, because most people don’t possess the discipline to switch between being a borrower to being a saver.? Many do it, but not the majority. I saved money when I was a grad student, though most of my colleagues did not.

My advice to you is to develop careful spending habits, particularly if you are young.? What you do now will affect your ability to save for the rest of your life.? Borrow for things that have large long-term payoffs.? Delay purchases for short-term gratification.

Personal Finance, Part 11 ? Your Personal Required Investment Earnings Rate

Personal Finance, Part 11 ? Your Personal Required Investment Earnings Rate

Everybody has a series of longer-term goals that they want to achieve financially, whether it is putting the kids through college, buying a home, retirement, etc.? Those priorities compete with short run needs, which helps to determine how much gets spent versus saved.

To the extent that one can estimate what one can reasonably save (hard, but worth doing), and what the needs of the future will cost, and when they will come due (harder, but worth doing), one can estimate personal contribution and required investment earnings rates.? Set up a spreadsheet with current assets and the likely savings as positive figures, and the future needs as negative figures, with the likely dates next to them.? Then use the XIRR function in Excel to estimate the personal required investment earnings rate [PRIER].

I’m treating financial planning in the same way that a Defined Benefit pension plan analyzes its risks.? There’s a reason for this, and I’ll get to that later.? Just as we know that a high assumed investment earnings rate at a defined benefit pension plan is a red flag, it is the same to an individual with a high PRIER.

Now, suppose at the end of the exercise one finds that the PRIER is greater than the yield on 10-year BBB bonds by more than 3%.? (Today that would be higher than 9%.)? That means you are not likely to make your goals.?? You can either:

  • Save more, or,
  • Reduce future expectations,whether that comes from doing the same things cheaper, or deferring when you do them.

Those are hard choices, but most people don’t make those choices because they never sit down and run the numbers.? Now, I left out a common choice that is more commonly chosen: invest more aggressively.? This is more commonly done because it is “free.”? In order to get more return, one must take more risk, so take more risk and you will get more return, right?? Right?!

Sadly, no.? Go back to Defined Benefit programs for a moment.? Think of the last eight years, where the average DB plan has been chasing a 8-9%/yr required yield.? What have they earned?? On a 60/40 equity/debt mandate, using the S&P 500 and the Lehman Aggregate as proxies, the return would be 3.5%/year, with the lion’s share coming from the less risky investment grade bonds.? The overshoot of the ’90s has been replaced by the undershoot of the 2000s.? Now, missing your funding target for eight years at 5%/yr or so is serious stuff, and this is a problem being faced by DB pension plans and individuals today.

While the ’80s and ’90s were roaring, DB plan sponsors made minimal contributions, and did not build up a buffer for the soggy 2000s.? Part of that was due to stupid tax law that the government put in because they didn’t want pension plans to shelter income from taxes for plan sponsors.? (As an aside, public plans did less than corporations, even though they did not face any tax consequences.)

But the same thing was true of individuals.? When the markets were good, they did not save.? Now when the markets are not good, the habit of not saving is entrenched, and now being older, saving might be more difficult because of kids in college, interest on a mortgage for a house larger than was needed, etc.

Now, absent additional saving, when investment earnings lag behind the PRIER, that makes the future PRIER rise, to try to make up for lost time.? Perhaps I need to apply the five stages of grieving here as well… trying to earn more to make up for lost time is a form of bargaining.? It rarely works, and sometimes blows up, leaving a person worse off than before.? Most aggressive asset allocation strategies only work over a long period of time, and only if a player is willing to buy-rebalance-hold, which only a few people are constitutionally capable of doing.? Most people get scared at the bottoms, and get euphoric near tops.? Few follow Buffett’s dictum, “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.”? Personally, I expect the willingness to take investment risk over the next five years to rise, but over the next ten years, I don’t think it will be rewarded.

Now, as time progresses, and the Baby Boomers gray, unless the equity markets are returning the low teens in terms of returns, there will be a tendency for the average PRIER to rise, absent people realizing that they have to save more than planned, or reduce their goals.? This problem will be faced in the ’10s, bigtime.? The pensions crisis will be front page news, and I’m not talking about Social Security and Medicare, though those will be there also.? The demographics will be playing out.? After all, what drives the funding of retirement at a DB plan, but aging, where the promised expected payments get closer each day.

Well, same thing for individuals.? Every day that passes brings a slow weakening of our bodies and minds.? Dollars not saved today, or bad investment returns mean the PRIER rises, making the probability of attaining goals less achievable.

Now, is there nothing that can be done aside from increasing savings and reducing future plans?? In aggregate, no.? You will have to be someone special to beat the pack, because few do that.? Better you should take the simple solution, which is a humble one: save more, expect less.? For those that do have the talent, you will have to take the risks that few do, and be unconventional.? Note: for every four persons that think they can do this, at best one will succeed.? My own methods are always leaning against what is popular in the markets, and I think that I am one of those few, but it takes work and emotional discipline to do it.

Then again, I have done it, as far as my PRIER is concerned — it is below the rate on 10-year Treasuries.? Most of that is that my goals are modest, aside from putting my eight kids through college, and I am not planning on retiring.

With that, I leave to consider a post I wrote at RealMoney two years ago.? It’s kind of a classic, and Barry Ritholtz e-mailed me to say that he loved it.? Given what we are experiencing lately, it seems prescient.? Here it is:


David Merkel
Make the Money Sweat, Man! We Got Retirements to Fund, and Little Time to do it!
3/28/2006 10:23 AM EST

What prompts this post was a bit of research from the estimable Richard Bernstein of Merrill Lynch, where he showed how correlations of returns in risky asset classes have risen over the past six years. (Get your hands on this one if you can.) Commodities, International Stocks, Hedge Funds, and Small Cap Stocks have become more correlated with US Large Cap Stocks over the past five years. With the exception of commodities, the 5-year correlations are over 90%. I would add in other asset classes as well: credit default, emerging markets, junk bonds, low-quality stocks, the toxic waste of Asset- and Mortgage-backed securities, and private equity. Also, all sectors inside the S&P 500 have become more correlated to the S&P 500, with the exception of consumer staples. In my opinion, this is due to the flood of liquidity seeking high stable returns, which is in turn driven partially by the need to fund the retirements of the baby boomers, and by modern portfolio theory with its mistaken view of risk as variability, rather than probability of loss, and the likely severity thereof. Also, the asset allocators use “brain dead” models that for the most part view the past as prologue, and for the most part project future returns as “the present, but not so much.” Works fine in the middle of a liquidity wave, but lousy at the turning points.

Taking risk to get stable returns is a crowded trade. Asset-specific risk may be lower today in a Modern Portfolio Theory sense. Return variability is low; implied volatilities are for the most part low. But in my opinion, the lack of volatility is hiding an increase in systemic risk. When risky assets have a bad time, they may behave badly as a group.

The only uncorrelated classes at present are cash and bonds (the higher quality the better). If you want diversification in this market, remember fixed income and cash. Oh, and as an aside, think of Municipal bonds, because they are the only fixed income asset class that the flood of foreign liquidity hasn’t touched.

Don’t make aggressive moves rapidly, but my advice is to position your portfolios more conservatively within your risk tolerance.

Position: none

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