Search Results for: insurance investing

Using Life Insurance Products to Fund Long-Term Needs

Using Life Insurance Products to Fund Long-Term Needs

I have noted recently a number of advertisements offering risk-free investing.? When I dig into them, they are selling life insurance and annuities.? They claim high rates of return with virtually no risk.? Here are the problems:

  • Life insurers have come off of 3+ decades of falling interest rates, portfolio yields are high relative to what you can get in the market today.? Some insurers may show above average rates, but if enough take advantage of them, the rates will fall to market levels.
  • Commissions to agents are relatively high, which has two effects: 1) less investment performance goes to the insured, and more to the agent, and 2) High surrender charges.? If you ever need your money in full, you will never get it back from an insurance contract.
  • People have forgotten the 1970s, with rising interest rates, where many insurers were near bankruptcy, and on a market value basis, many were technically bankrupt.
  • Life insurers that have written a lot of variable business or a lot of indexed business have taken on a lot of hidden equity risk.? Imagine a Great Depression scenario, where equities fall 90% over 3 years, and it takes 20 years more for values to recover.? Guess what?? Virtually all of the life insurance industry dies, whereas most survived the Great Depression.
  • From Mutual Insurers, life insurance dividends are not guaranteed.? In a real crisis, dividend scales could drop to zero.? The insurance you thought was free regains a price.
  • Equity indexed products rarely return well.? When I analyzed them back in the early 2000s, T-bill yields were the result of my models.? Today, T-bill yields are so low that the returns must be better.? That said, you will have to accept low returns versus a long surrender charge.

Insurance is meant for protection, not savings.? It is also meant for scamming the tax man, especially with respect to estate taxes.

Just be wary here, I’m not naming names, because many of these parties are litigious, another sign of weakness.? But there is no “one size fits all” method for Wealth Management.? One of my clients recently complimented me because I don’t try to get all of the assets of a client.? Indeed, I want my clients to feel that they have chosen me for their purposes.? I do not want them to allocate more to me than they are comfortable allocating.

So, be aware of the limitations inherent in life insurance products.? And when you hear that something is virtually risk-free, take a step back and hold onto your wallet.? Nothing is risk-free.? Even with the guaranty funds backing the insurers, the full value of large policies is not guaranteed, much like large depositors in the banks.

The regulation of the solvency of life insurers has been better than that of banks for the last 30 years, but it hasn’t been perfect.? I was on the takeover team that tried to have AIG to take over the Equitable.? AXA overbid, and bought a bad situation just as it was about to turn.

As for AIG, some of those promoting insurance products say that AIG’s life insurance subsidiaries did not need a bailout in the crisis.? That was false, because of the securities lending agreements, and a few other things.? Most of the domestic life companies of AIG received bailout money.

The good record of life insurance lack of default over the last 30 years is the result of three things:

  • Falling interest rates
  • Better solvency regulation than banks
  • AIG’s life insurance subsidiaries were bailed out.

Be diversified, and don’t use just one set of entities to fund your retirement.? Using only insurers runs a lot of regulatory and taxation risk.? A future government may find clever ways to undo the clever tax avoidance that has been achieved there so far.? Spread your regulatory risk.? If you are wealthy enough, spread out your country risk, but be wary as you do so.? Who will support the rule of law better than the US?? Where will governments not tap assets under custody in a crisis?? Remember Cyprus.? It will not be the last place where assets are expropriated for the good of locals, even if locals got hurt as well.

 

Two Insurance Questions

Two Insurance Questions

First question:

Good afternoon.? I’m an avid reader of your blog and want to thank you for the work that you’ve done. I’m reading through the 10-Ks of insurers to try and educate myself and wanted to see if you can provide some advice.? I’m trying to find a guide/book that can help me understand the mechanics of the loss reserve developments show as an adjustment to each “vintage” year.? For example, I’m trying to understand if these are rolling reserves or if they are standalone on an annual basis.? I’m also trying to understand how changes in reserves flow through the income statement.? If you have a book that you can point me to, I’d really appreciate it.? Thanks for your help and have a nice weekend.

First, to any casualty actuaries reading me, if I get this wrong please correct me.? I am a life actuary by training, though I’ve tried to learn your discipline in broad from outside.

There are two main exhibits for P&C reserving in 10Ks — there are the loss triangles that go by accident year (i.e. the year in which the claim is incurred, rather than paid).? But the triangles show what has been paid, and how the incurred estimate changes over time.? With this, you can see how estimates of losses have proven liberal or conservative over time.

The second main exhibit breaks down reserve setting? for the current year.? It breaks into two main parts:

  • What reserves have you set for the business written in the current year?
  • How have you changed your estimate of losses incurred for prior years?

My article last night dealt with the latter of those questions.? What this implies is that good companies are very conservative in setting reserves for the current year, and lets the excess of those reserves release over time.? This may not juice stock performance in the short run, but in the long-run, it will lead to good results, because there will be few negative surprises from reserving.

Here’s the second question:

I?ve been intrigued by the recent reader questions, specifically the last couple questions on insurance stocks (RGA, AIZ and others). It sparked a mini research project this weekend for me and I read through a bunch of your old posts, along with some of the company reports and conference call transcripts. I don?t have in depth knowledge of the insurance industry?. I like the business model and understand the basic business, but am not yet well versed with reading and deciphering balance sheet items and insurance industry specific metrics-although I?m getting there

My question is very general in nature. As a value investor, each month I go through 6 or 7 different screens (basic value metrics like P/E, P/B, P/FCF, etc?). I know you?ve said that insurance stocks tend to follow their book value over time, but can trade in ranges from 0.5 to 2.0 times book? and I?ve read through your thoughts on adjusting book value for intangible items and AOCI. But my question is basically: ?Why is the market pricing so many insurance stocks so far below book value?? I know that the near term outlook for interest rates is that they?ll stay low, and I know the near term outlook for the industry isn?t great, but it seems like the market is pricing these stocks for poor results for years.

I know you can?t answer this question specifically, but I just wanted to hear your expertise on why you think these stocks are so far below their book value. I subscribe to Value Line and was reading the latest section on Life Insurers (section 8 from last month)? Value Line covers 10 or 12 of these stocks- RGA, LNC, MET, AFL, PRU, AIZ among others? and all of them seem to be priced at very low prices to earnings and/or book value. In the stock you like, National Western Life Insurance (NWLI), as I?m sure you know-it?s priced at .44 x book, and 6x forward earnings. Almost all of the stocks I looked at in Value line are single digit current P/E ratios as well.

The other thing I?ve noticed as I looked at the 10 year financial histories of these stocks is this: most of them are successfully growing their businesses (premium income seems to be steadily rising each year with most of them), and most of them are growing their book values. Some had the bad year in 2008, but many of them seem to be growing their book values at 10-15% per year consistently for the past decade.

So you have stocks that are selling at very low P/E ratios, very low P/B ratios (and low relative to their own historical valuations in both those categories), AND they are growing their book values (most of them at least).

I guess I?m just looking for some help as to what I could be missing? What does the market see that warrants these valuations?

Insurance is a mature industry.? It’s not a sexy industry.? Further, the accounting in insurance is complex, and few outside the industry understand it.? I have a huge book explaining the nuances of GAAP accounting for life insurers… it is complex.

Now there are some reserving issues with life insurers.? With secondary guarantees, there is little way to tell that reserving is adequate with Variable Products, or Universal Life with no lapse guarantees.

As such, I avoid the companies that are heavy with these products.? Part of the discount there is the distrust of the accounting, but the taint spreads to the industry as a whole,? and as such, the whole life insurance industry trades at a discount.? Some more so, some less.

That said, well-run insurance companies pay great dividends and compound book value at high rates.? Aside from NWLI, I don’t own any pure play life insurers,? Yes, I own SFG, but it is mostly a disability insurer.? AIZ offers funeral insurance, but it is #1 there, with weak competition.? I own RGA. a life reinsurer, but the issues are very different.

There are concerns in life insurance about crediting rate guarantees that can’t be met.? I don’t own any companies with that problem; that is a real problem.

I’m happy to own the insurers without accounting problems, which have low P/B & P/E ratios.? In the long run, their ability to compound returns will benefit any portfolio — it is only a question as to when serious and large investors realize this.? I am willing to wait for this.

Full disclosure: long NWLI SFG AIZ RGA AFL

Investing In P&C Insurers

Investing In P&C Insurers

When I was half my current age, an actuary in my life insurance firm said to me, “Property-Casualty insurance is not real insurance.? When they lose money, they just raise rates, and they make the money back.”? Today, with greater knowledge, I know that he was half-right.? Here is where he was wrong:

  1. If a P&C insurer risks a significant fraction of its surplus, such that if they could lose enough in a single year that they would not be able to write more business, that is an insurer to avoid.? Good P&C insurers do not bet the farm.? They manage such that they will always stay in the game, allowing themselves to write good business at good rates after a disaster.
  2. If a few badly-run insurers die after a disaster, that is all the better for those that remain.? Capacity exits, and those left standing raise rates and earn strong profits.? P&C insurers and reinsurers that “swing for the fences” tend to die.
  3. As with most things in life, it is those that take moderate risks that do best.? Invest in those P&C insurers.
  4. P&C insurance is insurance on a micro level.? It is not as if losses are directly rated back to insureds.? On a macro level, conservative P&C insurers and reinsurers are toll-takers.
  5. This applies more closely to short-tail and mid-tail insurers.? Long-tail insurers take a long time to validate their underwriting, and in certain environments, can go broke more easily than other P&C insurers.

That said, P&C insurers and reinsurers that underwrite and invest carefully tend to make money regularly, and with a better return on equity than most industries.? It is one big reason why Warren Buffett has done so well over the years.? Small underwriting gains combined with small investing gains can compound quite well, leading to a very nice overall return.

There is one more advantage here.? Insurance fuses the twin problems of uncertainty and time [accruals].? This is difficult enough, but the accounting treatment discourages many from analyzing the insurers.? Complexity in business begets accounting complexity.

That is why I think that my main job with insurers is analyzing the management team. Good management teams think like owners, and reduce exposure when times are aggressive.

That’s why 15% of my portfolios for clients & me are in P&C insurers.? They have done well in the past, and there are no changes indicating why they won’t do well in the long run if they are conservative.

 

Problems in Life Insurance

Problems in Life Insurance

I am not an FSA, but I am an actuary.? That said, I am not presently practicing inside a life insurance company, so as I write this, there may be some things that I get wrong.

There are two areas that concern me in life insurance accounting at present.? The first is that there is no good way to estimate the reserves for products that have secondary guarantees.? Yes, many actuaries can create models to try to estimate what the reserves should be.? But when you are dealing with variables that are less than predictable ? withdrawal assumptions, investment performance, etc., the results are often less good than desirable.

As a result, there have been reinsurance deals done to eliminate or reduce the formulaic reserves on secondary guarantees.? As a former boss of mine at AIG liked to say, ?I drop my deficiency reserves in the Atlantic Ocean.?? In other words, a Bermuda reinsurer with weaker reserving standards would absorb the secondary guarantee risk, even if it was another AIG subsidiary.? The same can be done through securitization and Special Purpose Vehicles.

Two articles on the topic:

  1. Experts Fear Life Insurers Are Courting Reserve Risk
  2. Captive SPVs: Shadow industry or necessary tool for life insurers?

But here is the more recent problem: allowing insurance companies to use their own models for reserving.? If the results of banks using the Basel Standards were bad, this has the potential to be worse.

You want all setting of reserves/accruals in financial companies to be conservative, and not manipulable by the companies, lest solvency be compromised.

When I was active in pricing, reserving, and cash flow modeling, I felt I had some of the best modeling out there, because most actuaries don?t understand complex regression models, and the components of investment return.

But I would never use my models to set the reserves.? That goes too far.

You don?t want to hand over reserving rules to one hired by the company, no matter how ethical he might be.? That way lies disaster.? There are always subtle pressures put on actuaries to be less conservative, because companies face pressure to show good earnings in the short-run.

Think of the mostly European quants, accountants and actuaries using the Basel standards.? Giving them the authority to set their own reserves for credit using internal models led to setting the reserves too low.? You want to have checks and balances.? You don?t want to have players serving as their own umpires.? So what if the statutory standards are too tight?? That just means earnings will be delayed, not eliminated.? Risk margins should be received as earned, and never capitalized.? Besides, the current crisis shows us that we never truly understand the parameters of the distribution.

Now, the rules in question are Statutory rules, affecting solvency, but not earnings, which come from GAAP.? What Statutory affects is the degree of solvency for subsidiaries, and the amount of free cash flow available to the holding company in the short-run.

This gives a lot of flexibility to management teams, and there is a lot more room to be liberal or conservative in terms of overall leverage policy.? In the short run, there could be a self-reinforcing cycle driving up the prices of life insurers as the less conservative buys the more conservative, resets their reserves, and uses the excess cash flow in the short run to acquire more companies.

Now for three quotations from this Wall Street Journal article on the topic:

Critics of the plan say they fear insurers will go overboard in their effort to placate investors who have grumbled for several years about subpar returns, draining the industry of reserves that could be needed in future financial crises. Many publicly traded life insurers are struggling to post the midteens returns on equity that shareholders want. Analysts say it is too soon to calculate how the new method will filter through to returns.

“This a significant and historic vote for the NAIC, moving forward on a substantive change in policy,” said Thomas Sullivan, a partner with PwC’s regulatory advisory business, and a former Connecticut insurance commissioner.

Once insurers can free up capital, “you could see more competitively priced products to consumers and/or improved financial flexibility for insurers,” Mr. Sullivan said.

Others are less optimistic. The move to principles-based reserving “is one of the most important developments in the history of life insurance,” said Joseph Belth, a professor emeritus of insurance at Indiana University and editor of the Insurance Forum. “Future generations of executives, regulators and consumers will have to deal with the financial carnage.”

Benjamin Lawsky, superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services, had urged fellow regulators to vote no in a letter dispatched last week.

“The insurance industry weathered the financial crisis well precisely because of the careful reserving state regulators have historically required,” Mr. Lawsky said Sunday. “To ignore the lessons of the financial crisis and deregulate the industry, allowing them to keep less in reserves, is unwise.”

Listen to the New York Department of Insurance, which is the giant among pygmies.? They understand insurance regulation, versus most of the others states that don’t, who don’t deserve? a vote.? Listen to Joe Belth, who has fought against all manner of insurance frauds.? He deserves to be listened to as an elder statesman, unlike many others who think loosening up standards will produce some great outcome.

Principles based reserving will be less transparent than current standards.? Think of it this way.? Under the old rules, everyone was using the same algorithm.? You could ask questions about the inputs to it, and whether they were reasonable.? Under the new rules, regulators not only have to ask questions about inputs, but about the algorithms.? I can tell you from my experience, New York and the large states will be challenged trying to regulate that.? The small states?? They can’t even handle the present standards.

Now, it is not a done deal that these standards will come into existence.? Note from this article:

With the adoption of the Valuation Manual and prior approval of revisions to the Standard Valuation Law, the NAIC and Academy can present this as a package to state legislatures for consideration in early 2013. This package must be approved by 42 jurisdictions that represent states in which at least 75 percent of direct premiums are written before PBR takes effect. ?

Both New York and California are against this, and they have 18% of the market.? 8% more against, and this is dead.? Also, I know from my own forays back in 2000, when I led the effort to modernize Maryland’s life insurance investing code that it is very difficult to convince legislators to adopt new standards that they don’t understand.? I succeeded, and mainly because I was able to explain how excesses would be curbed.? With this legislation, I have no idea how you pitch it, aside from the braindead “More flexibility is good for the life insurance industry,” pitch.
I do not stand behind the American Academy of Actuaries.? I was a member of that for years, but I do not see them as promoting the good of all, but only that of the insurance/benefits industries.
Two more articles:

And to put my money where my mouth is, I am willing to testify against this legislation in state capitols as needed.? Maybe I get the fun of going back to Annapolis, but where else might I go?

Book Review: Secrets in Plain Sight: Business & Investing Secrets of WARREN BUFFETT

Book Review: Secrets in Plain Sight: Business & Investing Secrets of WARREN BUFFETT

I consider myself a lesser light compared to many following Warren Buffett.? Yes, I am a value investor and an actuary, so I guess I have some punch in attempting to analyze the actions of one far greater than me.

The book is organized around two main trips that the author made to the Annual Meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, with some notes from the the 2011 tacked on.

This book tries to distill the ideas of Buffett into simple concepts, and largely succeeds.? It also alleges weaknesses? in Buffett’s reasoning.? Why not consolidate similar, less profitable businesses?? Why not invest a little more in existing businesses? I partially agree: I used to call Berkshire Hathaway “a grab bag of undermanaged businesses.”? But I’ve changed my mind, mostly.

The cost of doing the first of those could be considerable.? Buffett gets certain deals because the seller knows that he will leave the business alone.? The unique culture, friendships, family relationships will be maintained.? The seller doesn’t get top dollar, but he gets the satisfaction that he was true to those he worked with and served him.? Getting these businesses cheaply is a competitive advantage for Berkshire Hathaway, even if it means a certain amount of inefficiency.? Personally, I expect the next CEO or two will centralize the company, and turn it into a normal company.

As for investing more in existing businesses, all the manager has to do is put forth the case to his boss, Buffett.? Buffett will give him a quick decision.

But the author is right, in general, Buffett has not focused on organic growth.? He has acquired all of the businesses that the owns, aside from the reinsurance business.

This book has many strengths:

  • It recognizes that there is a cult following around Buffett.? He’s a bright guy, no doubt, but few questions get asked him by shareholders about his main duty, that of being CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.
  • It points out the significance of Charlie Munger, who got Buffett to think more broadly about value, served as a “Dr. No” to Buffett’s more optimistic demeanor.
  • It doesn’t spend a lot of time on Buffett as an investor in public equities, which has contributed much less to the growth of Berkshire than the acquisition of whole companies.
  • The demographics of Berkshire’s Annual Meeting are older and white, and in general, are the patient shareholders that Buffett likes.
  • Omaha is an unusual place for such a large company, but the isolation is a plus if you are trying to do something different.
  • Understands the basic safety rules of Buffett’s investing: margin of safety, patience, think like a businessman, simplicity, read a lot, be a good judge of character, think independently, get the big ideas right, the value of cash, don’t risk the firm, etc.
  • Notes the value of ethics at Berkshire, even when significant mistakes are made, like the handling of the David Sokol incident.? Reputation matters; you only get one reputation, and it affects all aspects of your business.

Quibbles

  • Berkshire is primarily an insurance company.? I would have spent more time on that.
  • I would have spent less time on non-business ethical issues, like abortion, religion, etc.? Buffett is no good guide there; he is merely justifying his past actions.
  • The bit about the Hoopa Indians was interesting, but when Buffett said, ?I agree that we will not exercise decisions except those ministerial in nature,? he was being very clear and simple.? Buffett is not a Christian, but he was raised in a Presbyterian household.? A minister is one who does things on behalf of another.? The issue is that there are 4 California hydroelectric plants that are old.? If the Federal government destroys them, it may help in salmon production, or farmers might like the extra water for their own use.? Buffett will simply do what the authorities want done if they are willing to pay to do it.? It is not his call in a regulated industry.
  • Buffett’s hypocrisy on taxation is not addressed.? He backs high estate taxes and high personal income taxes, but he doesn’t pay those.? The increase in his wealth though Berkshire, which does not pay a dividend is sheltered from tax, because he never sells a share.

Who would benefit from this book: Anyone who wants to invest better could benefit from it. At five bucks, it?s cheap. A Kindle application for my laptop was free with the purchase.? If you want to, you can buy it here: Secrets in Plain Sight: Business & Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett, 2011 Edition (eBooks on Investing Series).

Full disclosure: I bought the e-book with my own money.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

Flavors of Insurance, Part XI (Banks and the Insurance Business)

Flavors of Insurance, Part XI (Banks and the Insurance Business)

My bias in understanding banks in the insurance business is that banking and insurance are fundamentally different businesses, but there are areas of overlap where the participation of banks sense. In Europe, indiscriminate mingling of the two businesses has usually led to losses. Why?

Though banking and insurance are both described to be financial services, they are different in the terms of financing done, arid service provided. Here are some of the key differences:

  • Product complexity: Insurance liabilities are typically more complex than bank liabilities; there are more factors that can affect the overall cost of the promises that an insurer makes to a policyholder, than a bank makes to a depositor.
  • As a result, the liabilities underwritten by an insurance company are usually riskier than those underwritten by a bank.
  • Because of the relative riskiness of the asset and liability structures, including the greater length of guarantees made, insurance companies generally run at a higher ratio of book equity to assets.
  • With the longer liability structures, and a highly competitive environment, the investment policy of most insurance companies is more aggressive than that of most banks. Interest rate risk is not generally a problem; most companies attempt to squeeze out interest rate risk by approximately matching assets and liabilities. Most of the risk comes from investing in equities, lower grade corporate debt, and equity risk from the writing annuities. (As the market rises and falls, so do fees received.)
  • Liabilities are more expensive to originate and service at insurance companies.
  • There is a high amount of idiosyncratic expense associated with running an insurance company. When a bank buys an insurance company, there are usually few expense savings.
  • Though there are diversification advantages from a holding company owning both banks and insurers, this advantage often outweighed by the different skills needed to manage the different entities well.

The European experience with banks and insurance companies under the same roof has been mixed. One success has been banks coming to dominate distribution of life insurance products. Banks distribute more than 50% of all life insurance policies in most countries in developed continental Europe. The tendency for banks to sell insurance is strongest in countries where banks are dominant financial institutions aside from insurance.

But there have been failures as well. Most of the failures have been due to a lack of understanding of how different banking and insurance really are. Others have been due to taking too much risk, particularly in unfamiliar countries. Here are some examples:

  • CSFB buying Winterthur did not grasp how sensitive the performance of Winterthur was to the performance of the equity markets. When the equity markets fell, CSFB had to pump in $2.4 billion of capital.
  • Allianz did not grasp the poor asset quality of Dresdner, particularly in the midst of a bad market for investment banking
  • Zurich Financial Services was overly aggressive in the expansion plans in the US, leading them to overpay for marginal asset management companies like Kemper and Scudder.
  • Aegon, ING, and Prudential plc all suffered by building up leverage through 2000, particularly in their US life insurance subsidiaries, and then got whacked by the combination of the bear markets in equity and credit.

To summarizing the European experience positively, if a bank has strong customer relationships, it can earn additional margins through distribution of insurance products. Negatively, conservatism pays in entering new lines of business and new countries.

The US experience with banking and insurance together has been more limited, due to laws such as McCarran-Ferguson and The Bank Holding Company Act. McCarran-Ferguson, passed in 1945, entrenched the exclusive authority of the states to regulate insurance. The Bank Holding Company Act of 1956, amended in 1970, restricted the insurance activities of bank holding companies.

Until HR 10 was passed in 1999, the Federal Reserve gradually relaxed regulations on bank involvement in insurance companies so long as earnings from insurance activities remained below a threshold. In April of 1998; the merger announced between Citicorp and Travelers forced the need for structural legal change, leading to the passage of HR 10, otherwise known Gramm-Leach-Bliley. HR 10 allowed for the formation of financial holding companies that could engage in banking, investment banking, and insurance, with regulation of mixed entities to be done functionally down at the operating companies, in much the same way it would be done for standalone entities.

When HR 10 was passed, there was a lot of expectation in the insurance industry that the new law would have no large effect. Some observers suggested that life and personal property/casualty insurers might be bought by banks because of investment and product marketing synergies. But most thought that banks would not buy insurance companies, and insurance companies would not buy banks. This expectation has largely been met. Aside from Citicorp, only Bank One has acquired an insurance underwriter of significant size.

Even with Citigroup (ne? Citicorp) the acquisition of Travelers was re-thought. In 2002, Citigroup spun the property/casualty operations off as Travelers Property Casualty, which had a short-lived existence as a standalone company before merging with The St. Paul. Citigroup kept the Travelers life and investment operations (and the logo).

Bank One acquired the US life insurance operations of Zurich Financial Services. This allows Bank One, soon to be a part of JP Morgan Chase, to underwrite life insurance. They presently use it to sell term insurance and annuities.

So, why didn’t banks attempt to enter the life and personal property casualty lines, in general? The quick answer was that they didn’t need to; many already had the benefits that come from distribution of insurance products, without the additional risk of underwriting, the additional hassle of state regulation, and the complexities of managing two disparate businesses. Additionally, the sale of insurance products has tended to be a high ROE business, whereas underwriting, given the stiff capital and reserving requirements, tends to be a low ROE business.

Banks sell 23% of all annuities sold. At present, most of the insurance business that banks do is the sale of annuities. Here is a breakdown of insurance sales done by banks in the US (from LIMRA, as reported in the National Underwriter):

Product

Percentage of Sales
Annuities 68%
Benefits and other commercial lines 16%
Personal Property-Casualty 7%
Credit 5%
Individual Life and Health 4%

Aside from annuity sales, the other major area of insurance activity for banks is the brokerage of employee benefits and commercial insurance. Banks have been aggressive buyers of local insurance brokers; one-third of all sales of local insurance brokerages since 1995 have been sold to banks.

There is logic to banks engaging in insurance brokerage. It deepens commercial relationships within a bank’s footprint, and can even lead to opportunities to expand the geographic scope of a bank as it buys insurance brokerages outside its footprint. Insurance brokerage relationships can lead to new banking clients, and vice-versa.

There are two banks among the top ten insurance brokers in the US: Wells Fargo is fifth, and BB&T is sixth, behind the big insurance brokerage specialists Marsh and McClennan, Aon, Arthur J Gallagher, and Brown and Brown. There are cultural differences between banking and insurance brokerage. A large commitment to insurance brokerage by a bank implies that the brokerage arm will behave like the big insurance brokerage firms that they compete with. Banks with a small commitment to insurance brokerage tend resemble the small brokers that the bank acquired. And in general, insurance brokerage tends to be a more aggressive sales- and customer service-driven culture.

We are not yet at the end of the involvement of banks in the insurance business. Intelligent bankers will use insurance as yet another way to deepen the relationships that they have with commercial, and to a lesser extent, retail clients. In general, we do not expect many banks to take on underwriting risk.

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Bringing it to the Present

All of this is still true today, and banks don’t know what to do with insurance, aside from a few of them selling annuities, like CDs, and being insurance brokers through their business banking relationships.

The last major bit of the Travelers acquisition was unwound as well, as MetLife bought the Life & Annuity business of Travelers for an attractive price.

One correction: in general, we now know that insurers do asset-liability management far better than the banks, and that the banks were considerably overlevered compared to the stable insurers.

I still think the best summary here is: banks can be good marketers of insurance.? They are a logical distribution channel for many lines.? But they don’t do a good job managing insurers.

Insurers may be better at managing their own pup banks, like Allstate and MetLife, but the length of the time of success is too short to be definitive.? Be skeptical of large efforts to blend banking and insurance; it usually doesn’t work.

Full Disclosure: Long ALL

A Summary of my Writings on Analyzing Insurance Stocks

A Summary of my Writings on Analyzing Insurance Stocks

Well, whaddaya know?? I received a nice mention at The Ideas Report For Serious Investors. Unexpected, and an honor. I really like their blog and have added it to my RSS reader.? So, I left them this comment, which is not published yet:

Hey, thanks for mentioning me. Here’s a bonus for those with access to RealMoney:

And away from RealMoney:

I hope you enjoy these. They are the bulk of my thoughts on insurance stocks, aside from issue-specific commentary.

David

Disclosure: long ALL NWLI SAFT RGA AIZ PRE CB

I went back through all of my blog posts in insurance to analyze what were the best things I had written on insurance investing.? I also added one more blog post idea to my list.? A long time ago, I wrote a 16-page paper summarizing the whole insurance industry for a former employer.? It was urgent, so I pulled an all-nighter at the ripe old age of 43.? He was deeply grateful for the piece, and then it never got published.? It was supposed to span three issues of his newsletter, but it never appeared in one.? I have no idea why it never ran, but it bugged me that it never did.? So, with a little updating, I hope to release it in serial form sometime in the next few months.? I have lost the original file, so I will have to scan it in and edit it.

But enough of that — the articles listed above are a reasonable summary of how I analyze insurance and other financial stocks.? For those that invest in stocks, I hope you enjoy these posts.

PostscriptApologies to PlanMaestro, Manual of Ideas republished his work, and I appreciate the two mentions from him at his blog, Variant Perceptions.? He expands his thoughts on my most recent piece on AIG’s under-reserving.? Keep it up PlanMaestro, and remember, PartnerRe does not discount its reserves.

Book Review: Expectations Investing

Book Review: Expectations Investing

Why don’t average investors use discounted cash flow analyses?? Typically, they don’t use them for several reasons.

  • Most people don’t want to use an algebraic formula to estimate anything.? As some legendary trader reputedly yelled at a quant, “No formulas!? You can make me add, subtract, multiply, and divide!…? And don’t make me to divide too often!”
  • It is not intuitive to most.? It takes a bond-like or actuarial approach to analyzing stocks — forecasting future free cash flows and discounting them at the firm’s cost of capital.
  • It is highly sensitive to assumptions one employs.? Small changes in growth rates or discount rates can make a big difference in the estimate of value.? It lends itself easily to garbage in, garbage out.? (I remember a Dilbert cartoon where an analyst told Dogbert that scientific decision analysis required forecasting future free cash flows and discounting them.? He added that the discount rate had to be right or the analysis would be garbage.? Dogbert’s comment was to the point: “Go away.”)
  • It takes a lot of work, and shortcuts are easier, providing most of the analysis with less effort.

Now, most professional investors don’t use DCF either, for many of the above reasons.? But there are a number that do, among them Buffett.? Morningstar uses DCF for its stock recommendations.? It’s not a bad system after one makes the effort as an organization to standardize your free cash flow estimates and discount rates.? Most professionals invert the process, and rather than trying estimate what a stock is worth, they estimate what they think the company will return at the current market price.

Expectations Investing is one way to formalize DCF, and a rather comprehensive one.? It would be a good way for an investment organization to formalize its investment process, but is way too complex for one person implement, unless one is following some type of simplifying system like Morningstar, ValuEngine or any of the other purveyors of DCF analyses out there.

In the process of formalizing DCF, the book explains the problems with traditional P/E analysis, and how a focus on free cash flow can remedy the problems.? A weak spot in the book is their discussion of cost of capital.? Their cost of equity capital analysis relies on beta, which is not a stable parameter, nor does it really capture what risk is.? That said, inverted DCF can work without discount rates.? The book takes the approach that the discount rates are the less critical factor, because when they change for one firm, they typically change for all firms.? The book’s solution is to use current prices to drive DCF backwards and determine market free cash flow expectations for a stock.

The analyst can then look at those expectations, and try to determine whether they are too high or too low.? The analyst can also look at whether there might be changes due to unit growth, product price changes, operating leverage, economies of scale, cost efficiencies, and changes in the marginal efficiency of capital.? After the analysis, usually one or two factors will stand out capturing a large portion of the variability.? The analyst then focuses on those, and what drives them.? Unexpected changes lead to revisions to the analyst’s model, and the game continues.

Beyond that, the analyst needs to understand how the company in question fits into its industry.? The book discusses Michael Porter’s five forces, the value chain, disruptive technologies, and the economics of information.? Beyond that, the book touches on:

  • Real Options — the ability of a company to pursue value enhancing projects or not.
  • Buybacks — do them when the company has no better opportunity, and the shares are undervalued.
  • Mergers and Acquisitions — how to tell when are they good or bad ideas.
  • Reflexivity — Are there situations where a higher or lower stock price affects the business?? High/low valuation makes financing easy/difficult.
  • Understanding management incentives — how will they affect financial results and management behavior over the short and long runs.

At 195 pages in the body of the book, Expectations Investing is not a long book for what it covers.? The flip side of that is that is breezes over much of the complexity inherent in what they propose.? One other shortcoming is that little time is spent on financials, which are a large part of the market, and for which it is intensely difficult to calculate free cash flow.? After reading the book, I would have no idea on how to apply their DCF model to valuing a bank or an insurance company.

Aside from financials, if someone were to ask me, “Is this how valuation should be done?” I would say, yes, ideally so.? But it brings up one more critique: though I hinted at it above, most of the shortcuts that investors use are special adaptations and first approximations of the DCF model.? That is why shortcuts have validity — if you know the critical factors that drive profitability for a given company or industry, why waste your time on a big model with many inputs?? Cut to the chase, and use simpler models industry by industry.

Who would benefit from this book: someone who either wants a detailed means of calculating a DCF model, or a taste of the issues that an analyst/investor has to consider as he evaluates the worth of a company’s stock.

This is a neutral review from me.? I neither encourage or discourage the purchase of the book.? It has its good and bad points.? But if you want to purchase it, you can find it here: Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns.? I have a copy of Damodaran’s The Dark Side of Valuation: Valuing Young, Distressed, and Complex Businesses (2nd Edition), weighing in at 575 pages, as well as his book Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset, Second Edition (similar size, with a quarter inch of dust on my shelf.? Guess I don’t use it that much).

I could do a review of one or both of those, but if Expectations Investing is overkill for the average investor, and light for the professional, then either of Damodaran’s books are for the professional only.? At best I think it would only produce a review on the weaknesses of DCF analysis.

Full disclosure: If you enter Amazon through my site, if you buy something there, I get a small commission.? Your price does not change.? I review old and new books, and I don’t like them all; my goal is to direct readers to the books that can best help them.

Insurance Company Impermanence

Insurance Company Impermanence

I was driving home from some event with the youngest five of my children — it was a long and tiring event, so my kids were quiet, and a thought came to me… what of the companies that I have worked for in the past?

So, I started down the list.? Pacific Standard Life — biggest life insurance insolvency of the 1980s.? (That you have never heard of it tells you the ’80s were kind to life insurers.)? I was a great place for me to start.? More than doubled its size every year for the 3.5 years that I was there.? My responsibilities grew as rapidly.? It was like taking a drink from a firehose.? I became indispensable, and then as I realized that the probability of company failure was growing, I looked elsewhere.? I ended up with two offers — Midland National, and AIG.

Pacific Standard was eventually sold to the Hartford, and exists no more today.

I took AIG, and am not sad that I did, even though the Midland National offer was better in hindsight, and AIG cheated me by placing me on the domestic side rather than the international side.? The church that I went to while working for AIG more than made up for the difference.

That said, my life at AIG was miserable.? What a political, unprofitable place — that is, the domestic life companies, prior to the purchase of SunAmerica.? I really hated myself as I got more recognition for closing down unprofitable lines, than building profitable lines.? That said, I learned a lot there — you had to do everything — price products, value results, risk control, and even poke around at the investments.

But I knew I was a short-termer there; my conscience bothered me regularly.? Why so much effort on an unprofitable division, where every day was a battle?? I interviewed many places, eventually Conning made made me an offer (and then withdrew it).? Provident Mutual was more honorable, and so I became their investment actuary in the Pension Division.

Wait, what of AIG today?? It is being chopped up and sold off.? I suspect the name will disappear in entire before 2020.

As part of a six member group of officers over a 30+ staff in Provident Mutual’s Pension Division, I made and helped make significant changes that improved profitability and lowered risk. By the time I was done, projects that I executed accounted for 5% of Provident Mutual’s net present value of profits.? The Pension Division went from being a backwater to the star division of the company.

Mid-way through my time at Provident Mutual, senior management asked me to be the line actuary for the Annuity Division.? I did that, changing the investment and crediting strategies.? I still remember telling the investment department to invest 25% of their assets in 30-year bonds.? Doesn’t sound right when the crediting rate reprices each year, but when you have floor crediting rate guarantees, it makes a lot of sense.? That call has paid off.

But, all humanly good things come to an end.? Senior management at Provident Mutual took a dislike to actuaries who were too competent.? They fired my boss, and gave me less and less to do.? I could read the writing on the wall, so I looked elsewhere.

Where is Provident Mutual today?? It is a part of Nationwide Mutual.? Management sold the company for a piddling amount of compensation to the management team, and reasonable compensation to the dividend-receiving policyholders.? As I have said to my children, “That is stupid-greedy.? When you sell the company and receive only three times your annual salary as a bonus, you are trading away something more valuable, for something less valuable.”? But the real loser was Nationwide, who had to write off a large portion of the purchase price stemming from the adjustments made to the earnings statements from Provident Mutual management.

I took a job at USF&G as it was being acquired by The St. Paul.? The St. Paul wanted an actuary that understood how to invest life insurance assets, because they hadn’t had a life insurance subsidiary in over 25 years.? I explained the theory to them — maximize interest spreads over the life of the business.? Very different from the P&C version — premium reserves get invested in cash, claim reserves in bond of the proper duration for payout.? Surplus assets get invested in risk assets, like equities.

USF&G is gone, but so is The St. Paul, which is now subsumed in The Travelers.? I could go on over how the CFO of The St. Paul ruined the balance sheet by buying back too much stock, or how The St. Paul increased its leading market share in Medical Malpractice by buying crummy medium sized competitors in the wrong point of the pricing cycle.? But I won’t; they are gone now.

Now the operating life company that I used to manage money for is still alive, if not kicking.? Old Mutual plc owns them, and the underperformance of the life subsidiary led to the dismissal of the CEO of Old Mutual.? I would not be surprised if that subsidiary were sold off.

The investment management subsidiaries that I worked for survived better, but where operating management is marginal, the pressure comes to replace investment management.? It is easy to blame the operating management, but much harder to eject the investment management.

Two more takeaways for me: first, the insurance insustry, for all its complexity, has done very well with taking over complex liabilities and corporatations, leaving policyholders relatively unaffected.? Second, my own career has been marked by working for companies that tried to grow too quickly.? Using? my fictional story as a template, I worked most of my insurance career for the aggressive guy.? As an asset manager, I’ve spent most of my time investing in conservative management teams.? I guess I learned what works by working for what doesn’t work, again and again.

I’m not disappointed; I learned a lot, and it made me better with both risk control and investing.? May we all make lemonade if we get a lot of lemons.

To What Degree Were AIG?s Operating Insurance Subsidiaries Sound? (8)

To What Degree Were AIG?s Operating Insurance Subsidiaries Sound? (8)

Continuing profitability / Is this strictly an investment problem?

2007 Net Income 2008 Net Income 2007 Net Operating? Income 2008 Net Operating? Income Surplus Increase net of Capital Contributions and divs Yellow Column less Realized Capital Gains
Total P&C

5,563

733

7,210

654

(353)

Total Life

3,404

(23,218)

7,206

2,819

(29,539)

(1,840)

Total

8,967

(22,485)

14,416

3,473

(29,892)

Net Underwriting Gain 2007 Net Underwriting Gain 2008 Net Investment Gain 2007 Net Investment Gain 2008
Total P&C

2,189

(1,939)

3,783

2,485

Take a look at the above two tables.? For the P&C OISs, investment results were worse in 2008, but the really big swing was in underwriting, where profits were around $4 billion lower than 2007.? My summary figure for core P&C statutory earnings in 2008 is the -$353 million highlighted in green.? That is the surplus increase net of capital contributions and dividends.? I.e., how much did the value of the companies fall as a result of the year operations — $353 million.

For the life companies, I did the same calculation, but netted out realized capital losses, which should not recur, for a core statutory loss of $1.84 billion.? I can’t split that entirely into underwriting and investments, as with P&C, but taking out the realized capital gains approximates it.

My main point here is that 2008 was a bad year for AIG’s OISs even without the investment losses.? Not enough to take any of the main OISs into insolvency by itself, but bad still.

Articles and other issues

More holding company liquidity out of thin air: receiving a $800 million loan from American General Finance, a wholly owned subsidiary, in exchange for giving the subsidiary $600 million in capital to satisfy a debt covenant.? Wonderful, American General Finance is somewhat less creditworthy to bondholders of the firm, and the AIG holding company gets cash.

AIG attempts to raise cash and reduce leverage through the sale of subsidiaries that are in relatively good shape:

The price talk doesn’t look that great.? Counting in Hartford Steam Boiler, premium prices are certainly not being realized.

In general, the simplest units to sell are the simplest ones to value.? They have the easiest models for analyzing likely future free cash flows, or distributable earnings.? I have said before that when a company is in a crisis, and has to sell off assets, that it makes a great deal of difference what kinds of assets they sell off.? If they reach for the dirtier assets, and wish to keep the clean ones, it is usually a sign of confidence in the future.? If they sell the good assets, because that is all they can do, they are just stalling for time, and hoping that a better day arrives.? Hope is not a strategy, but that is what seems to be going on here.

Now, as for Maurice Raymond Greenberg’s claim that he had nothing to do with the wreck of AIG, let me simply say that he should shoulder a lot of the blame.? Most of the increase in leverage occurred under his watch.? AIG was a decidedly more risky investment when he left than in the late 80s, when the balance sheet had virtually no debt.? He encouraged a fear-based culture that was very bottom-line oriented for the quarterly earnings estimate, even to the point of buying finite reinsurance to manipulate the results.? He pushed for an aggressive culture at AIG Financial products, and he got one.? He may not have been there for the worst of it, but he certainly sowed the seeds of future trouble.

Summary

To what degree were AIG’s operating subsidiaries sound? Answer: aside from the mortgage insurers, the P&C subsidiaries were basically sound, though with some issues such as capital stacking, affiliated assets, etc., as mentioned above.? The non-mortgage P&C subsidiaries didn’t have a great 2008, but they would have survived as standalone entities.

The life and mortgage subsidiaries are another matter.? Without the help of the US Government, many of them would have failed.? Even now, given the levels of affiliated assets, capital stacking, deferred tax assets, etc., they are not in great shape now should there be another surprise.? Profitability is likely to be lower in the future than in the banner years of the middle of the 2000s decade.

The US government acted for multiple reasons on AIG.? Among them was to protect the other life insurers of the US from getting surcharged in order to pay for the costs going to the guarantee funds, along with systemic risk issues at AIG Financial Products (which was much bigger).

If AIG did not have AIGFP, and no bailout from the US Government, the company as a whole would have come under severe stress, and some of the life and mortgage subsidiaries would have gone into insolvency, but the company as a whole would probably have survived.

Investment implications

My view of AIG is this: the common stock will go out worthless, or nearly so.? Preferred stakes will be compromised at best.? Beyond that, I am less certain.? I look at two types of debt securities and wonder, though.? I am planning on doing a review of the funding agreement-backed notes, and perhaps a closer look at American General Finance notes after the first quarter is reported.

The tough part is we don’t know what the government will do.? If their main goal was stabilizing AIGFP, and that job is nearly complete, then if the value of AIG as subsidiaries get sold appears to not support the preferred stock, the government might walk, and not throw good money after bad.? At that point, bonds of the holding company would suffer further, because the insurance commissioners will carefully watch any dividending up to the AIG holding company.? They got bailed out once.? They will be watching more closely from now on, because lightning doesn’t often strike twice in the same place.

My basic view is take a conservative posture on AIG securities.? There are many competing interests, some political, some economic, fighting over the corpse of this once great company.? Be wary of investing in the capital structure of AIG.

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