Search Results for: we eat dollar

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Europe

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  • Risk of Bank Failures Rising in Europe, E.C.B. Warns?stks.co/iXnFdgzCpNK1ctKk7ijN/w&pagewanted=all&pagewanted=print Bad scene $$
  • New BoE chief Carney will devalue sterling, Pimco warns?stks.co/sEin?It’s useless but everyone has 2try2 “beggar thy neighbor” $$
  • The French Economic Maginot Line: A Very Weak Strongpoint?stks.co/cVlX French economy weakening; 2 big 4 Germany 2 rescue $$
  • Greek Economy Optimism Seen in Yield-Curve Switch?stks.co/aVsv?Perhaps they r doing better, but what of France & Germany? $$
  • Hungary Cuts Policy Rate to Record Lowstks.co/sENf?Another nation sucked into the march to global ZIRP; what will break first? $$

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Asia

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  • Asia’s Huge Debt Growth Problem: Remember 1997??stks.co/sEsy?Graph on this page is worth a look; could b another Asia crisis $$
  • Aging Chinese Face a Bleak Picturestks.co/cWG6?This should b no surprise; it is the logical outcome of the 1 child policy $$
  • China Failure to Grow With $1T Is Warning to Li: Economy?stks.co/jXddNegative Marginal productivity of capital in China $$?#FTL
  • China’s Xi Comes Calling on Americasstks.co/rEua?Interesting to see the Chinese need 4 products in the Western Hemisphere $$
  • China Failure to Grow With $1T Is Warning 2 Li: Economy?stks.co/dVzl?10 years from now, they’ll wonder y we worried about China $$
  • China-Based Cyber Attacks Rise at Meteoric Pace?stks.co/sEco?This is not news. Practice safe computing, & you will be safe. $$
  • Japanese Housewives Cooling on Aussie Uridashi?stks.co/sEcn?The strong yen is gone,& small investors realize there is no gain $$
  • Tokyo Shares Down Sharplystks.co/bW4G?Japanese stocks get hit, why should anyone be surprised? BOJ engaged in voodoo economics $$
  • Japan?s Bond Market Wants BOJ to Purchase More Short-Term?stks.co/gXRpTraders off-balance as BOJ stops giving them easy profit $$
  • China’s Shuanghui to Buy Smithfield Foods?stks.co/pEdZ?A wise addition to the strategic pork reserve; let the pigs flow west! $$
  • Japan plays down concerns bond price spike could hurt recovery?stks.co/fXGZKuroda thinks 3% higher interest rates won’t hurt?! $$
  • Fears over US stimulus highlight Japan?s fragility?stks.co/aVlz?Japan is reaching the limits of what monetary policy can do $$

 

Rest of the World

  • Sudan Threatens to Close Pipelinestks.co/cVvE?Two corrupt regimes arguing over oil – a lose/lose situation $$
  • Bank of Israel Lowers Rate Again After Surprise Mid-May Cut?stks.co/eVoS?Many fringe economies import low rates 2 aid exporters $$
  • Despite Detractors, Don’t Buy Talk of Dollar’s Demise?stks.co/cVeU?The US is in good shape compared to Japan, Eurozone & China $$
  • Fringe economies are forced to absorb loose monetary policy, or let exports suffer while hot money tries to get yield in their countries $$

 

Central Banking

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  • Simon Johnson: Choosing the Next Head of the Federal Reservestks.co/bWEQ?No doubt that Dick Fisher would b a lot better $$
  • Is the Fed Right to Calibrate Asset Purchases to Economic Data?stks.co/fXYR?Coarse data doesn’t allow 4 fine policy precision $$
  • US Banks Looking Solid As Bernanke Keeps The Juice Flowing, But Perils Of Financial Crisis Loom?stks.co/pEdg?Low rates will end $$
  • Fed?s 100-Year Roots Grew From Virginia Congressman?stks.co/sEWJ?Puff piece of secular hagiography fawning over Carter Glass $$
  • Kuroda Struggles W/Communication as Japan Rates Rise?stks.co/eVkQ?Most central bankers don’t know forces w/which they r toying $$
  • Also, strong communication skills at central banks r a weakness, not a strength; better 2 move back to the pre-87 era, operate in shadows $$
  • The more communication a central bank puts out, the more markets become “tightly coupled” w/the CB, thus limiting the effects of policy $$
  • Stephen Poloz: Top 10 headaches BoC chief faces right off the bat?stks.co/qEKO2 much debt amid a mortgage bubble germinates $$

 

Market Impact

 

  • NYC Pension Chief Seeks $500,000 Managers to Cut Out Wall Street stks.co/eWPZ?Insourcing looks easy; u need bright mgmt 2do it $$
  • Contrarian Investing in Quality Franchises?stks.co/dWEz?It is not enough 2b contrarian, u have 2b right $$?$STUDY
  • James DeMasi on Overcoming Adversity to Start and Grow a Value Investment Management Firm?stks.co/eWPVIntelligent stuff $$?$STUDY
  • Pension-Fund Swings Make Case for Cutting Risk?stks.co/tEuZ?Much as I like ALM, probably the wrong time 2 trade stocks 4 bonds $$
  • Junk Bonds Having A Bad Week (Down 0.96%) Amid Broader Pullbackstks.co/bWEV?Yet this is small & we need it 2 persist 4 weeks $$
  • Evaluating 3 Bullish Argumentsstks.co/dW9s?PR better than logic, but he is right that the market is overvalued $$
  • Sallie Krawcheck: Big Banks Still Don?t Have Enough Capital?stks.co/rEou?No 1 knows how large the ultimate catastrophe could b $$
  • Morgan Stanley to Downsize Fixed Income?stks.co/dVzj?I think this is a mistake. Wall Street exists 2 sell debt$MS?$$
  • Record Cash Sent to Balanced Fundsstks.co/eVv4?Hail the humble balanced fund, which has the virtue of keeping panic away 4most $$
  • SEC Refocuses on Accounting Fraud stks.co/gXI1?With Crisis-Related Enforcement Ebbing, SEC Is Turning Back to Main Street $$
  • A hedge fund for u & me? Best move is 2 pass?stks.co/eVoW?Sage advice from @ritholtz?| survivor & reporting bias & fees 2 high $$
  • Goldman Sachs Buyback Orders Reach Highest Level of Year?stks.co/bVkE?Are buybacks part of the voting or weighing machine *now* $$
  • Margin Debt Hits a Record, Showing Confidence?stks.co/fX96?Confidence or froth, amid a market influenced by aggressive $$ policy?
  • Beware of ‘Bargain’ Stocks?stks.co/hXKKI disagree for now; look4 strong companies in industries under stress that will survive $$
  • Defaulted Manhattan Complex Rewards Patient $$?stks.co/iXCC?Sadly, equity & mezzanine were wiped out, patience pays only4 snr debt

 

Insurance

 

  • MetLife cuts 2,500 advisers seen lacking chance of success?stks.co/dWF0?Retail chief says productivity ‘way up;’ costs way down $$
  • Regarding the prior tweet, I have wondered 4 ~25 years when something like that would happen; has long been needed @ most life insurers $$
  • $PRU?Takes On?$AFL?in Benefits After Health Law?stks.co/fXpO?Much easier2 “enter” a market than create a sales force $$ FD: +?$AFL
  • $ENH?CEO steps down, replacement named?stks.co/iXML?Sudden. Former CEO of?$AXS?picked, owns ~1.5%, will own ~4% as comp; FD: +$ENH
  • The former CEO of?$AXS?was pushed out by his board; he built Axis, but was a bit of a prima donna. What will he do to $ENH?? | FD: +?$ENH?$$
  • One more note: the competent former CFO of?$PRE?is now CEO of?$AXS?, having been passed over for the CEO job @?$PRE?$$?#musicalchairs

 

US Politics

 

  • Pelosi: ?We have to pass the bill so you can find out what is in it.? The more we find out, the less sense it makes.stks.co/pF0S
  • GOP senators want IG probe of Sebelius’ ‘Obamacare’ fundraising?stks.co/dWA5Obama administration is more corrupt than Nixon $$
  • Bible Class in Texas Schools Faulted as Unconstitutional?stks.co/iXnP?Look in the comments 4 bigoted ideas that aren’t American $$
  • Obamacare Competition Has Roots in Economist?s Passion?stks.co/dW9n?If you believe in neoclassical economics u r deluded $$?#loser
  • Regulators Want Better Financial Datastks.co/gXjV?Well, duh, but there are costs involved & the government does not bear those $$
  • When Chinese Walls Come Crumbling Down?stks.co/rEot?There r still conflicts of interest on Wall Street. Be aware & defensive $$
  • Deposits Guaranteed Up to $250,000?Maybe?stks.co/pEdo?Congress transfers insured deposit risks to the taxpayers & depositors $$
  • Liberty Reserve Joe Bogus Account Said to Reflect Evasion?stks.co/jXKv?Money laundering goes high-tech; Feds take action $$
  • Obama Accepting Sequestration as Deficit Shrinks?stks.co/gXIj?Whaddaya know? A policy no one liked actually isn’t that bad $$
  • Health Law Critics Seek to Gut It by Attacking Exchanges?stks.co/rEO6 Exchanges will only attract sick, will b high costs4all $$
  • The US Federal Government Spending: a Huge Fiscal Drag http;//stks.co/iXMS Cutting less useful spending it may help, not harm $$
  • Hollywood Loses Blockbusters as ?Iron Man? Finds Subsidy?stks.co/gXIX?Like building stadiums, except u have to keep doing it $$
  • Obama Nominates 2 Senate Aides for S.E.C. Posts?stks.co/fX8w?A team 2 assure continued incompetence & weak enforcement $$
  • Banks’ Lobbyists Help in Drafting Financial Bills?stks.co/pEJH?Basic goals: min capital reqs, max flexibility, weaken regs $$

 

Other

 

  • Cord Cutters Lop Off Internet Service More Than TV?stks.co/hXwv?You can cut your costs, but what does that do to your life? $$
  • Online Course Providers Reach Out2 Wary Professors?stks.co/jXde?Better to ask the question, “Where is new revenue coming from?” $$
  • Victor Davis Hanson: Why Some Wars Are So Savage?stks.co/bW4K?Evenly matched wars that take a long time lead to barbarism $$
  • Mary Meeker is Back With Her 2013 Internet Trends Report Slidesstks.co/pEfP?A lot of interesting information $$ Things change
  • European Sunscreen Roadblock on U.S. Beaches?stks.co/tENx?If you sunburn like me, maybe European sunscreens will help u $$
  • Dear Grads, Don’t ‘Do What You Love’ stks.co/hXVe?The solution is 2love what u do; working 4 $$ helps other priorities in life
  • Death Jolts Texas Investorsstks.co/aVsN?Since his body was found 2 weeks ago, investors say they lent him millions of $$?#badodor
  • Common Core Education Is Uncommonly Inadequate?stks.co/sENHNational curriculum standards tend 2b dumbed-down; local better $$
  • Science Can?t Pin Powerful Tornadoes on Global Climate Change?stks.co/eVoUA rare fair article on climate @ Bloomberg. Who knew $$
  • Noahpinion: Bets do not (necessarily) reveal beliefs?stks.co/dVdu?In which Noah Smith arbs Brad Delong & Patrick Chovanec $$?#FTW
  • Immunology Gets Turned On Its Headstks.co/jX4P?Discovery may aid vaccine design&begins2explain y gene therapy runs in2 trouble $$
  • Is This Google X’s Plan to Wire the World??stks.co/hXKJ?Solar powered balloons dot the skies, could last 5 years & upgrade $$

 

Companies

 

  • Buffett’s Safe Bet on Vegas?stks.co/gXjUThe Maestro does it again, takes a marginally profitable company, & refinances it $$
  • Goldman Upgrades Defense Contractors?stks.co/gXjT?My but how contrarian; won’t there b less cash flowing to defense companies? $$
  • Berkshire Hathaway Unit to Buy NV Energy for $5.6B?stks.co/dVzk?Another wise move by Buffett; utility earnings make $$ vs funding
  • Alcoa Cut to Junk by Moody?s as Aluminum Price Declines?stks.co/pEkEAnother sign of economic weakness, but Alcoa will survive $$
  • Payday Lenders Evading Rules Pivot to Installment Loans?stks.co/eW4q?I like people to have choice, but not 1 that leads2a trap $$
  • Empire State Building IPO Plan Is Approved?stks.co/fXUM?”The second-largest IPO for a U.S. real-estate investment trust” ever $$
  • BHP Halts Coal Expansion?stks.co/dVthDownturn in the global economy & thus steel makes demand fall for metallurgical coal $$?$BHP
  • Newsweek for Sale: IAC Seeks Buyersstks.co/jXKo?The internet changes everything; say goodbye to a dinosaur $$
  • Utilities Weigh Entering Rooftop-Solar Business?stks.co/sEWA?Sounds dumb; it’s a very different biz in almost every way $$?#FTL
  • Samsung, Sony Court Indians as Subsidies Fund Factories?stks.co/gXIgIndia gives 25% subsidy4capital costs2setup tech plants. $$

 

Energy

 

  • As US Oil Booms, an Unlikely Word Rises: Depletion?stks.co/dVl5?Wells created by fracking have shorter production profiles $$
  • U.S. Oil Boom Divides OPECstks.co/pEUQ?Those most dependent on oil revenues want others in OPEC 2 cut, so that they can cheat $$

 

Replies, Retweets & Comments

  • I just left a comment in “Energy stocks down, look to end week higher – Energy Stocks – MarketWatch”on.mktw.net/18DiBrm
  • “I have read both. Buffett made mistakes that cost him, but never such that he could not bounce back?” ? D_Merkeldisq.us/8da393?$$
  • Commented on StockTwits: Old tweet deleted, new tweet out?stks.co/iXMe
  • “Don’t forget his purchase of 83% of CVR Energy. Equally good. FD: +$CVI ” ? David_Merkel?disq.us/8d9jmi?cc:@refomedbroker?$$
  • @AlephBlog?Growth and the Market. Useful piece to help people make sense of seemingly over-valued equity market:wp.me/p3nd6r-4s
  • Sets up future losses $$ RT@tomkeene: ?Cov-lite? loans soar in dash for yield -?FT.com?on.ft.com/12daxfK
  • @kurtgodeldabomb?I like your name. Yes, that’s y I said it; I think its the voting machine 4 most companies, & weighing machine 4 a few
  • “Until the strategy fails, and he asks you to leave.” ? David_Merkeldisq.us/8d97f5?$$
  • @pope_stephen?Sadly, monetary policy was much better run under Volcker & Martin, & they were not going out of their way 2 explain the Fed $$

 

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 42 retweets received, 2 new listings, 60 new followers, 37 mentions. Via:?20ft.net/p

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Companies

  • Delta Sees S&P 500 in Reach as Credit Ratings Rise http://stks.co/rEBE? I would b cautious here, airlines have destroyed a lot of capital $$
  • Berkshire?s Weschler Holds Almost $150 Million of DaVita http://stks.co/pEIf? FD: + $BRK.B | The slow takeover of Davita continues $$
  • The real Apple tax scandal http://stks.co/gWz1? Scrap the corporate income tax & raise taxes on realized capital gains & dividends $$
  • Berkshire Hathaway Seeks Release of ResCap, Ally Financial Report http://stks.co/dVOD? Wants 2c if there was any fraudulent conveyance $$
  • Oil Revolt Generates $35 Billion as Icahn-Singer Agitate http://stks.co/jWnd? Many activist investors trawling in energy stocks $$
  • Inside Google’s Secret Lab http://stks.co/qE31? “Since its creation in 2010, Google has kept X largely hidden from view.” Long but good $$
  • Explaining Apple?s Irish Tax Dodge http://stks.co/hXHa? A good transfer pricing accountant is worth his weight in gold $$
  • Deal of the Week: Penney Holds Real Value http://stks.co/rDoO? $JCP needs to turn around its retailing much more than managing property $$
  • After all, that’s how BK conservation is done in the insurance industry, taxpayer never gets on the hook (please ignore $AIG) $$
  • Customer Service Is Next Job for IBM’s Watson http://stks.co/tDcy? Could Watson replace the grunts that take care of customer service? $$
  • “…insurance giants such as ACE Ltd and Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd” http://stks.co/qDeA? $ACE is a giant @ $31B , $ENH not @ $2B $$
  • $VOD to Keep $VZ Payout Amid Europe Struggles http://stks.co/cV0K? Not surprising they stalemated on VZW, & no special div | FD: + $VOD $$
  • Regulators Scrutinize Firms’ Ties to Insurers http://stks.co/sDXn? How much unsafe assets are held by life companies of $APO $HRG $GS ? $$

 

Market Dynamics

  • Murray International?s Stout Says Stocks Too Expensive http://stks.co/aVhD? This means invest in cash, long Tsys or gold if correct $$
  • Bargain-Hunting Buoys Treasurys [sic] http://stks.co/rEBC? Strength Returns as Bargain-Hunters Appear, but Prices Still Fall 4 the Week $$
  • EVERGREEN VIRTUAL ADVISOR http://stks.co/eVjh? A very good publication this week. If u beg, u can get on the distribution list. $$
  • Richard Band notes that the S&P 500?s prices-to-sales ratio is 1.5 to 1, almost 60% above its average since 1955 http://stks.co/gX6Z? $$
  • Paul Tudor Jones: Macro trading, babies r a ?killer? 2a woman?s focus http://stks.co/gX54? Any significant outside activity harms focus $$
  • Is This the Best Time for Investors? Don’t Bet On It http://stks.co/cVSF? Long term valuation measures r flashing red, play defense $$
  • 3 articles on gold http://stks.co/pE4K? & http://stks.co/sDwa? & http://stks.co/rDwK? New hedging, record shorting, paper gold $$ $GLD
  • Follow the Leader @mktanthropology http://stks.co/jWlB? Global economy feeling deflationary; stock markets poised to follow down $$
  • Goldman raises S&P 500 targets through 2015 http://stks.co/gWYI? Not impossible historically, but not likely, profit margins would b2hi $$
  • James Surowiecki: Is There a Stock-Market Bubble? http://stks.co/sDac? Argues profit margins sustainable: lower taxes, globalization $$
  • Looking for Investments With Higher Yields in a Low Interest-Rate World http://stks.co/pDgr? Grab hi yields now= walk tightrope; no net $$
  • Gold in Yen and SP500 and Bitcoin : Back to the Future http://stks.co/fWYb? Gold almost back to peak in yen terms & much more $$
  • Gold Bear Bets Reach Record as Soros Cuts Holdings http://stks.co/jWKK? Market delivers pain to the gold longs: bears now overextended? $$
  • Gold Rebounded After Moody?s Says U.S. May Face Downgrade http://stks.co/qDZq? People want certainty somewhere, whether in Govt or gold $$
  • Junk Stocks Spur Broadest Equity Advance Since 1995 http://stks.co/qDZm? Highly indebted firms take the lead in the equity market $$

US Politics & Economic Policy

  • Obama Bully Pulpit Bullied With Congress Probes Obscuring Agenda http://stks.co/jWz8? Maybe we should limit Presidents to one 4-yr term $$
  • Fannie Mae Profiting as Market Middleman Angers Lenders http://stks.co/sEB4? If we really want 2wind down F&F, we should end purchases $$
  • Goldman Sachs Research Disputes TBTF Subsidy http://stks.co/aVW5? In quiet times, advantage difficult to detect, easy during crisis $$
  • Unaccountable Executive http://stks.co/rDwj? If President doesn’t run government, who does? Can delegate authority, not responsibility $$
  • The Prisoner?s Dilemma of Central Banks [pdf] http://stks.co/rDwg? Everyone has an incentive 2 inflate, which leaves everyone worse off $$
  • The Fed Is Squeezing the Shadow-Banking System http://stks.co/tDy5? As they should: repo market was a big part of the financial crisis $$
  • The FED & F-35: Still no Rules of Engagement http://stks.co/pDwg? The Fed doesn’t know what they are doing; making it up, smiling a lot $$
  • Sheila Bair: Dodd-Frank really did end taxpayer bailouts http://stks.co/jWPv? Will follow BK pecking order, after that charge industry $$
  • Naming Names in the Dodd Frank Mess http://stks.co/jWPr? Mark Wetjen manages to stymie Dodd-Frank reforms; some of it is good, some bad $$
  • What Strong Dollar? US Boom Provides Oil Hedge http://stks.co/tDcb? W/more energy produced in the US, $$ has less impact on oil prices
  • White House urges Senate to cut crop insurance in farm bill http://stks.co/cV18? Difficult to beat the Ag lobby on crop insurance $$
  • Health Law Costs: Employers Eye Bare-Bones Plans http://stks.co/tDXo? Obamacare messes up the health system; avg person less well-off $$
  • Puerto Rico Statehood Bid Gets New Push http://stks.co/pDdM? Sensing future bankruptcy, Puerto Rico reconsiders a permanent liege-lord $$
  • Does Rand Paul’s Rise Signal A Broader Libertarian Moment? http://stks.co/aV62? Somehow I think this one will end in disappointment too $$
  • US Immigration Plan Encounters Business-Labor Rift http://stks.co/hWgM? Fascinating how seeming certainty of immigration bill has gone $$
  • The end of QE? http://stks.co/rDKW? @izakaminska tells us why more QE won’t help, & why the process will have to end soon. $$ #becareful

Rest of the World

  • Turkey Moves 2Curb Alcohol Sales http://stks.co/hXJT? This will b an interesting test of govt power; vodka is delivered quietly in Iran $$
  • Foreign Fighters Enter Syria to Defend Shiites and Al-Assad Regime http://stks.co/tEAp? “Islam is a religion of peace” “Islam is a…” $$
  • The Great Chinese Property Bubble: a Wall of Worry? http://stks.co/pEH3? 2 much 2 occupy; prices 2 high; enough debt 2b troublesome $$
  • BRICS risk ‘sudden stop’ as dollar rally builds http://stks.co/cVY1? EM blowups often preceded by rise in $$ | Good 4 EM exporters though
  • Wrong:Avoid These 3 Stocks on Japan, Says Expert http://stks.co/dVX1? An expert that doesn’t understand insurance trashes $AFL | FD:+ $AFL
  • Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up http://stks.co/sE8v? Over-indebted economies don’t grow rapidly; complexity chokes $$
  • 2 articles on Japan http://stks.co/fWuS? & http://stks.co/hX67? Rising bond yields & trade deficit, monetary policy drives both $$
  • Two articles on the Tokyo market rout http://stks.co/qE7K? & http://stks.co/rE2d? Abenomics is stretching the limits of the possible $$
  • Nobel Laureate Phelps Warns Against EU as Iceland Abandons Talks http://stks.co/fWui? Iceland gets smart, doesn’t join the Eurozone $$
  • Death in Parched Farm Field Reveals Growing India Water Tragedy http://stks.co/cVN6? Water shortages r big factor 4 India’s development $$
  • The Abenomics Experiment: Major Risks for Banks http://stks.co/gWlx? If interest rates rise 2much, banks in Japan go to neg net worth $$
  • Experts call for urgent measures to tackle debt http://stks.co/qDtR? One advantage of US over China; we resolve troubled debts better $$
  • Stockholm Riots Continue for Third Night http://stks.co/gWlk? If this can happen in Stockholm, it can happen in a lot of other places 2 $$
  • Hollande Bonds Without AAA Shine Brighter Than Gold http://stks.co/dUzy? Similar things worked 4 Japan 4a while, but now may b shifting $$
  • World?s Biggest Volatility Jump Spurs Fund Outflow http://stks.co/gWTm? Investors invest outside Japan 2 escape perpetually falling yen $$
  • China April housing inflation quickens to two year high http://stks.co/fWM5? Chinese inflation is the endgame for many globally $$ #theend

Wrong

Other

  • Soldiers Turn Entrepreneurs as One Million Exit Military http://stks.co/gX55? Military training has similarities w/entrepreneurship $$
  • The Exercise Equivalent of a Cheeseburger? http://stks.co/cVY6? Exercise is good; too much exercise is worse than little exercise $$
  • How Rail is Reshaping America?s Energy System http://stks.co/iWqJ? Summary piece on how tank cars r taking cheap fuel to the coasts $$
  • Wined, Dined, Canned http://stks.co/tDq6? Inside the insiders game that is the Cannes film festival $$ Movie about the business of movies
  • ?Teen?s invention could charge cellphone in 20 seconds http://stks.co/eVD0? Wonder how stable supercapacitor will b? Might b an issue $$
  • ??I?m going to be setting the world on fire,? she said. http://stks.co/jWPq? Having seen overpowered capacitors burn, could b literal $$
  • The Tech Innovator Who Almost Killed Saddam Hussein http://stks.co/dV1x? Long interesting article; Sabra becomes rich computer maven $$
  • Getting Along With the Original Other Woman?Your Mother-in-Law http://stks.co/iWbp? Husbands, support your wives. Mothers, bow out $$
  • New Rival Emerging for Bloomberg Chat http://stks.co/bV4p? Bloomberg may learn the hard way: messaging security can’t be compromised $$

Comments, Replies, & Retweets

  • @Sir_Strangelove Had not caught that, thanks for correcting me
  • “There is one thing you neglected: Baa bond yields are 3% lower than in 1999. That roughly comports?” ? D_Merkel http://disq.us/8d7ha9? $$
  • @joshuademasi It’s like long-tail reinsurers in the mid-’80s, most were technically insolvent, but book capital was +; losses eaten slowly
  • “Jeff Matthews is correct; Dealbook, though usually good, is wrong.” ? David_Merkel http://disq.us/8d735b? $$
  • “This is a failure of the regulators, that they let this happen at all. They have the power to top it” ? D_Merkel http://disq.us/8d730h?
  • @danielckoontz I know that dividend swaps exist, can imagine the possibility of leverage, don’t think it’s done much though, I hope
  • @danielckoontz So long as there isn’t any leverage on the person holding the dividend paying stocks, generally it should self-limit

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 35 retweets received, 1 new listings, 66 new followers, 30 mentions. Via: http://20ft.net/p?
Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

China

 

  • Pettis: I would argue that until Beijing has cleaned up its debt problems and its very unstable balance sheets, it cannot move quickly. $$
  • Pettis: Reducing the [interest] subsidy by raising rates would cause them all to bleed money. (DM: thus fin’l liberalization difficult) $$
  • Pettis: Far more than 100% of total SOE profits come from the interest rate subsidy (not to mention other subsidies…) $$
  • Target loopholes in pension system firststks.co/fVB7?China pensions exceeds the stupidity of US but not Greece: ret ages 2 low $$
  • Chinese steel association seeks to tackle ‘vicious competition’?stks.co/pBzz?A lot of words trying to explain away 2 much steel $$
  • China Slowing Reserves – A reverse QE?stks.co/hUjH?Hu Jintao ate sour grapes & Xi Jinping’s teeth r set on edge $$#dealtabadhand
  • Policy battle rages in China as slowdown feeds ‘sense of crisis’?stks.co/qBXa?Hard to overcome bureaucracy stifling the economy $$

 

Europe

 

  • Germans Splurge on Italian Homes Locals Can?t Afford?stks.co/iUpP?Pushes $$ into Italian economy, don’t kvetch
  • German euro founder calls for ‘catastrophic’ currency 2b broken upstks.co/tBWC?The political experiment should end; harm>good $$
  • Eurozone crisis deepens as German ‘sado-monetarists’ refuse to back QEstks.co/gUXD?Either centralize or dissolve the Eurozone $$
  • Southern Europeans Flock to Germanystks.co/cTEw?Cheaper labor emigrates to Germany to benefit from their capital invested $$
  • Sweden a Crisis Casualty No More Shows How to Get Haven Glowstks.co/bTBH?Which inflates asset values in their economy, great $$

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Egypt?s Wheat Farmers Hobbled by Fuel Shortages as Silos Run Lowstks.co/pCGK?Who would have the courage 2free Egypt’s economy? $$
  • Dollar Buying Continues Apace After ?100 Break?stks.co/iVEm?&?stks.co/jV1m&?stks.co/fVAg?Three on?#Japan?$$
  • Iran Cracks Down Ahead of Electionstks.co/gV0Q?The Ghanoon newspaper says. “Only in Iran: Election comes and Internet goes.” $$
  • SAT Scandal Shines Harsh Light on South Korean Academics?stks.co/qC0LSAT exams cancelled in S. Korea, a first for any country $$
  • Egypt Investment Collapsing as Citizens Turn Into Vigilantes?stks.co/eTds?It was smart 2 topple Hosni Mubarak & Saddam Hussein $$
  • In India, a Quixotic Fight Against Car Honks?stks.co/sBQj?Makes me want 2 create a bumper sticker, “Honk if you love India!” $$ 😉

 

Companies & Industries

 

  • Blackstone Targets Bulging Corporate Coffers Via New Unit?stks.co/sC9w?W/ MMFs under threat, alternative S-T income funds arise $$
  • Temporary Workers Near US Record Makes Kelly a Winner?stks.co/rC9qStaffing firms benefit from need 4 fewer full-time workers $$
  • And, as an aside, once PPACA [Obamacare] really kicks in, part-time work may become even bigger; very ill-thought out law, unforced error $$
  • Delta Capital-Return Plan Puts Focus on Cash Flow?stks.co/cThy?Airlines r2 capital intensive 2b run 4 free cash flow; dubious $$
  • Scor lead bidder for Generali USA in $800m deal?stks.co/qC1o?Not surprising 2c Scor overpay;?$RGA?is conservative $$ | FD: +?$RGA
  • Some Insurers Turn Away Variable-Annuity Money?stks.co/eTaG?When a life company does this, fund it, & don’t surrender; you won $$
  • Merged Bonds May Spur Fannie, Freddie Revamp?stks.co/dT4a?Offer the equity interests a kiss goodbye & merge them into GNMA $$
  • Cheapest Way to Rob Bank Seen in Cyber Attack Like Hustle?stks.co/tBQ6Start Denial of Service attack, raid $$ during distraction
  • New technology propels ‘old energy’ boom?stks.co/rBPp?Alternative energy will make sense when conventional energy gets scarce $$
  • Amazon?s growing threat 2 H-P, Dell and Oracle?stks.co/qBQR?It’s amazing how you can beat your competitors w/no profit FD: +?$ORCL
  • Some Verizon Investors OK With Paying Premium 4 Vodafone Stake?stks.co/bTAjSome large?$VZ?shareholders ok paying $130B FD: +?$VOD

 

US Politics & Economics

 

  • Deficit Reduction Is Seen by Economists as Impeding Recovery?stks.co/eTyxEconomists have not been right, y listen 2 them? $$
  • ??Big banks get a great deal when they borrow from the Fed,? Warren said on the Senate floor. ?In effect, the American taxpayer… (1/2)
  • …is investing in those banks. We should make the same kind of investment in our young people who are trying to get an education.? (2/2) $$
  • Private Student Debt Refinancing Could Help Economy, CFPB Says?stks.co/fV03Elizabeth Warren is a dangerous loony in this case $$
  • @AllenSammey?When a politician lobbies to use the borrowing power of the Fed for narrow political ends, that is dangerous, no?
  • @AllenSammey?Also, read the two prior tweets. They were meant as a group. I like a lot about Warren, but there is a lot 2 worry about also
  • @AllenSammey?That’s y I lend to my own children @ 0% in place of student loans; that they r not dischargeable in BK is another neg feature
  • Blacks Surpass Whites in Voter Turnout, Census Data Show?stks.co/hVAA?Helps explain the last election’s results $$
  • Colleges Soak Poor US Students While Funneling Aid to Rich?stks.co/bTURColleges r funded by donations. Poor people can’t donate.
  • What was Gallagher thinking?stks.co/dTHw?Difficult 2harm muni bonds w/strong economic purpose/pledges behind them $$ by?@munilass
  • Time for Americans to Rethink Retirement??stks.co/rBX4?If u have not concluded that u won’t retire, u r not paying attention $$
  • Federal Reserve Blows More Bubblesstks.co/eTLo?Ron Paul minces no words about the foolishness of current Fed policy $$
  • If this was a pill, you?d do anything to get it?stks.co/jUPk?Simple: have a nurse check on sick elderly at home once a week $$
  • Gore Is Romney-Rich With $200 Million After Bush Defeat?stks.co/pBWE?An utter hypocrite, pursuing his politics 4 financial gain $$
  • US Non-Farm Payrolls – The Hidden Weaknesses – not +165k but -376k?stks.co/rBPu?A pessimistic alternative view of jobs report $$
  • Too Much Asset Inflation?stks.co/eTGDTakes on Paul Krugman’s blather about there not being enough inflation, given asset bubble $$
  • Everything You Think You Know About the Fed’s Exit Plan May Be Wrongstks.co/rBOX?Fed may try 2 tighten &hold down long yields $$
  • Reverse Revolving Door: How Corporate Insiders r Rewarded, Leaving Firms For Congress?stks.co/gUMN?Y the Purple Party rules DC $$

 

Market Dynamics

 

  • Seth Klarman Warns of False Calm in the US?stks.co/jUu8?It is far easier 2b lax in $$ policy than it is to remove laxity#klarman
  • Investor Demand Propels Cheap Corporate Debt?stks.co/dTcm?Note that borrowing is not going on to fund organic growth, generally $$
  • Yields on Junk Bonds Reach New Lowonline.wsj.com/article/SB1000??When the average yield on junk bonds drops below 5%, we should run away $$
  • Listening to Harry Markowitz drone on about MPT, while I have 2 questions pending.?stks.co/aTco?Webinar:Arizona CFA socieities $$
  • As Sohn gears up, is it open season on Paulson and other hedge funds?stks.co/qBls?Hedge funds have a weak liability structure $$
  • This graph is 1 of many reasons y I follow the credit cycle:?stks.co/iUiM?Not perfect, but credit is the heartbeat of commerce $$
  • ?Putting Dow 15,000 in Perspective? by@ReformedBroker?stks.co/qBe9?Round numbers fascinate us; processes behind them r unclear $$
  • Spinning single-family home investments into mortgage-backed securities?stks.co/iUe9?Better idea than securitizing rents $$
  • Current Account: Cheap Junk Leads to Expensive Mistakes?stks.co/aTNl?A lower coupon on a junk bond means more refinancing risk $$
  • Wall Street?s trading businesses turn to survival of the least dead?stks.co/gUR6You want 2b the last man standing: monopoly $$
  • Rush for gold coins, jewels peters outstks.co/hUcf?Looks like the drive to own physical precious metals has finished 4 now $$
  • Speedy Robots Still a Wall Street Perilstks.co/gUQe?Anytime a strategy gets too large, the non-linearities kick in, w/crisis $$
  • Chart of the Day: NYSE Margin Debt Raises Eyebrows?stks.co/hUcAAsset/Liability mismatch invites trouble; margin debt goes up $$

 

Other

 

  • Better Than Buffett, This Investor Made Me Rich for Life?stks.co/bTj3@davidweidner?’s tribute to his late mother $$ Love > Money
  • If Spending Is the Goal, Try Use-It-Or-Lose-It Gift Cards?stks.co/iUpXSeiniorage should b distributed to the people per capita $$
  • The Internet Kills More Jobs Than It Creates?stks.co/fUm6?It is shrinking the cash/taxable economy, but not the economy. $$
  • Today?s CEOs Are Too Timid for the Times?stks.co/aTbG?The marginal productivity of capital is falling b/c of debt deflation. $$
  • David Ferrucci: Life After Watsonstks.co/dTER?Creator of IBM’s Watson goes 2Bridgewater 2apply Big Data & AI 2forecasting econ $$

 

 

Berkshire Hathaway

 

  • $BRK.A?CEOs Spend Quietly, Match Buffett on Heinz Deal?stks.co/dTmE?FD: +$BRK.B?| Clever subsidiary CEOs grow BRK organically $$
  • New book teaches children ABCs of Buffett’s Company?stks.co/iUpW?There would b a Hebrew version, but the Gecko isn’t kosher $$ 😉
  • I think reinsuring Long Term Care is stupid almost always. Insureds know more than insurer, who know more than reinsurer cc?@retheauditors
  • BRK knew *far* less than SwissRe about the policies they were reinsuring. On life re, meh, but 2 reinsure LTC takes real knowledge $$ +?$BRK
  • Buffett’s Ribbing About Swiss Re Dispute Is Fibbing?stks.co/bTGH?SwissRe took BRK 2 the cleaners FD: +?$BRK/B cc@retheauditors?$$
  • Warren Buffett worries about Fed’s ‘huge experiment’?stks.co/eTFv?Reliable: removing accommodation is harder than providing it $$
  • Munger: It’s time to break up the banksstks.co/hUcC?Munger knows that you should mix deposit insurance w/investment banking $$
  • A Lesson From Warren Buffett: Doubt Yourself?stks.co/sBPW?Many great investment teams encourage disagreement 2 test theses hard $$
  • ?We Want to Win?:Berkshire Hathaway Ann’l Meeting, 2013 Edition?stks.co/gUPpBuffett could help?$VZ?buy VZ Wireless FD: +$BRK?$VOD

 

 

Wrong

 

  • @creditplumber?My article is about insurance companies; u r taking my words out of context
  • Wrong: Fed in 2008 Showed Panic of 1907 Was Excessive?stks.co/jV1r?If/when the tightening cycle ends & things r fine, then crow $$
  • Wrong: Earnings Seen Lifting S&P 500 to Real Record?stks.co/bTjd?Profit margins would have 2 rise from record highs 2 do this $$
  • Wrong: Y I Have Never Said 2Invest With Warren Buffett?stks.co/qC02?U don’t tug on Superman’s cape, u don’t spit in the wind… $$
  • Unsure: Chanos sees downturn in hard disk drive industry?stks.co/iV3L?Will b hard to fight all of the free cash flow $$
  • Wrong: Larry Fink’s radical retirement recommendation?stks.co/fUaf?Please do *not* constrain people 2save; failure is an option $$
  • @AllenSammey?I mean that people should be free 2 take care of current needs rather than being forced to save, even if it means poor when old
  • Wrong: House Democrats Seeking Control Eye 17 Split-Ticket Seatsstks.co/gURH?This article asserts, it does not prove $$
  • Wrong: Bond Buyers See No 1994 Rout Helped by Bernanke Clarity?stks.co/qBQsNo one saw 1994 coming either; we r flying blind $$
  • Wrong: Crises Before and After the Creation of the Fed (2013-13, 5/6/2013)stks.co/gULU?Very premature 2 run a victory lap $$

 

Replies, Retweets & Comments

 

  • @SarcasticBull?I agree.
  • That is funny & weird. Very, very weird $$ RT?@izakaminska: Meme time:Hitler finds out about negative interest ratesstks.co/fUfN
  • @munilass?The danger 4 those that seek notable media coverage: media likes bold predictions, b/c they are “newsy.” Kind of a trap $$
  • @ScrollnKey?6x prior premium? Thanks. Post-Cyprus I think many people are analyzing how they can preserve their wealth.
  • Building a bigger, badder, bubble RT@kmac: RBA statement herebit.ly/12cL7Kk
  • @ScrollnKey?How is it compared to six months ago?
  • +1 Houses r expenses RT@cullenroche: Rarely do I disagree with Rick Ferri, but I do here.rickferri.com/blog/investmen?
  • @OffRoadFinance?I will accept the premise of the paper once we get through the ultimate tightening cycle, which may not b 4 decades
  • Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt & Gary Shilling would agree RT?@carney: …a lot of people making bets on rates rising could get burned badly …
  • @ReformedBroker?thanks
  • @The_Analyst?@ReformedBroker?There are levels of trust; this one ain’t so high, but it’s a straw blowing in the wind
  • @ReformedBroker?What was the forward PE on the cyclicals?
  • @gmacd18?Too early to say. Japan has been given a temporary free pass from the G20. When more nations try2 weaken their currencies, we’ll c
  • RT?@volatilitysmile: “The tax deductibility of interest played its part in creating this mess, both in the corporate and mortgage markets.”

 

FYI

?

  • My week on twitter: 51 retweets received, 1 new listings, 87 new followers, 61 mentions. Via:?20ft.net/p

?

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Pettis / China

 

  • Modified Pettis: Peripheral country depositors will remember Cyprus & it will affect their future credibility w/deposit guarantees $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Pettis: the idea that urbanization creates growth may have the causality backwards. It is far more likely that growth causes urbanization $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Parsing the Words of the New Premier http://t.co/KggvVUZ0bf Li Keqiang: We need to leave to the market and society what they can do well $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Closer Look: Parsing the Words of the New Premier – http://t.co/8LIiTxxqi0 Previous quote taken from Pettis, led me to this article $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Li Keqiang: The reform is about curbing government power. As a self-imposed revolution, it will require real sacrifice and will be painful $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Pettis: It turns out that we?ve seen record growth in debt. Is it really a surprise then that [China’s] economy is still growing quickly? Mar 22, 2013
  • Pettis:It isn?t until you write down the debt associated with the second bridge that you end up with a more meaningful measure of GDP. (3/3) Mar 22, 2013
  • official measures will have them contributing the same amount to GDP, even though the former creates real value & the latter does not (2/2) Mar 22, 2013
  • Pettis: If you spend $100 million each on two separate bridges, one of which is actively used and the other rarely used, (1/2) Mar 22, 2013
  • Biggest Solar Collapse in China Imperils $1.28 Billion http://t.co/yYgYpSpjAv Even w/subsidies solar is an inefficient technology $$ #duh Mar 21, 2013

 

FOMC

 

  • FED Optimistic Forecasts… http://t.co/MjilXrTSX1 The FOMC is always overoptimistic; they consider that 2b a part of their jobs $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Wrong:US economy needs a third term of Ben Bernanke http://t.co/fStUDLjy7g A lunatic praises a dangerous lunatic leading US 2 Stagflation $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • That’s all folks! #FOMC $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency for Year end Fed Funds forecast: 2013 0.29%, 2014 0.55%, 2015 1.30%, Long run 4.01% $$ #FOMC Who can tell? Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency 4 PCE inflation fcst since December 2012: 2013 1.55%, 2014 1.75%, 2015 1.93%, Long run 2.00% $$ #FOMC Way 2 optimistic Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Unemployment rt fcst since December 2012: 2013 7.35%, 2014 6.77%, 2015 6.20%, Long run 5.57% $$ #FOMC Way 2 optimistic Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency for real GDP since December 2012: 2013 2.53%, 2014 3.17%, 2015 3.25%, Long run 2.43% $$ #FOMC Too optimistic 2014-5 Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Change in Fed Funds fcst since December 2012: 2013 -0.11%, 2014 -0.05%, 2015 -0.11%, Long run -.03% $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Change in Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming fcst since December 2012: 2.49 yrs, which shortens by 3.4 months $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Change in PCE inflation fcst since December 2012: 2013 -0.20%, 2014 -0.03%, 2015 -0.01%, Long run no change $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Change in Unemployment rate fcst since December 2012: 2013 -0.13%, 2014 -0.15%, 2015 -0.08%, Long run -0.03% $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Change in real GDP since December 2012: 2013 -0.10%, 2014 -0.32%, 2015 -0.13%, Long run -0.03% $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • I am shocked that the Fed doesn’t have estimates on deposit insurance subsidies. That’s either a lie, or they should have that estimate $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • @pdacosta Good questions on Cyprus & deposit insurance subsidies $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Go Pedro! Mar 20, 2013
  • Federal Reserve, Expected to Continue Stimulus, Tries to Reassure Investors http://t.co/DuoAg3hYTv Doing the same, expecting different $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Bernanke Tightens Hold on Fed Message Against Hawks http://t.co/JyGTM0gP1f Wondered when this would happen; naive academic focuses power $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Insights from Former Fed Chairmen http://t.co/q3RbM7sm9e Greenspan, meh. Volcker says some interesting things regarding removing stimulus $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Fed’s Fisher: Too-big-to-fail banks are crony capitalists http://t.co/t65lN4kaaU Break them up & eliminate their funding advantages $$ Mar 16, 2013

?

Companies & Industries

 

  • Proto Labs seeks 1st acquisition shuns 3D printing http://t.co/56KeW8j4In Instead of creating by layers, start w/a block & cut away $$ $PRLB Mar 22, 2013
  • Old Tech Stocks, New Value: Santoli http://t.co/jfDtkOAwwX Tough part: estimating moat & probability of obsolescence, margin of safety $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Health Insurers Warn on Premiums http://t.co/zzZI2s1s2h Wrote about this b4 law was passed. Was accused of bias $$ http://t.co/WCECEQYuns Mar 22, 2013
  • Plywood Becomes Hot Item in Housing Recovery http://t.co/2LMfLI43L1 4 confirmation, look here: http://t.co/HbnVnGdJmO Plywood on fire $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • As Crop Prices Surge, Investment Firms and Farmers Vie for Land http://t.co/B1ESXEnefd Presence of a large amount of borrowed $$ = bubble Mar 22, 2013
  • Intuitive Robosurgery Training Seen Lacking in Lawsuits http://t.co/VgyqOZqLMD Accidents r common & significant training of MDs needed $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Gold Giants Shrink to Fit as Paulson Pushes Breakup http://t.co/9yXUb9Z11s Miners tend 2 overpay for marginal mines w/high variable costs $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Americans Cut Restaurant Spending as Taxes Bite http://t.co/VAZELXMwM2 Less $$ available for small luxuries like eating out. Mar 20, 2013
  • Electronic Arts Ousts CEO as New Game Consoles Await http://t.co/QMDjN8uZmN Game systems shift away from use of PCs; $EA doesn’t adjust $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • Revealed: The Fragility of US Wireless Customer Loyalty http://t.co/j8U5wZ9GvT May be few choices, but wireless customers r not sticky $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Corporate Cash Piles Grow to Record $1.45 Trillion, Moody?s Says http://t.co/0M84CE0tRi How much is domestic & not held 4 margin $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Intermediate hold co debt has none of the protections of sr unsec parent co debt, or operating subsidiary debt. Not worth risks, avoid $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • $HRG Announces Debt Offering by F&G Life Hldgs http://t.co/APQvmAECv3 Total desperation w/intermediate holdco debt; Avoid, avoid, avoid $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Private Equity?s $36B Retail Bet Not Going So Well http://t.co/xdQ9NzdAPs Retail does not work well w/leverage aside from mortgage debt $$ Mar 16, 2013

 

Cyprus

 

  • It?s Up to Putin Now: Cyprus Looks to Russia For Love?and Money http://t.co/CJdlAmyM5A Many Russians would lose $$ in Cypriot Bank default Mar 22, 2013
  • Just Let the Troubled Banks in Cyprus Fail http://t.co/0lSyyTjWIJ @carney gets it right. Protect small deposits, wipe out equity, etc. $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • ECB May Cut Emergency Funding to Cypriot Banks after Refusal http://t.co/jssqb7og4u If Cyprus’ banks fail, will anything else fail? $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Cyprus banks dwarf economy thanks 2funds from wealthy foreigners http://t.co/GbElR3bcTP Countries w/large financial sectors tend 2b risky $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • BlackRock CEO Fink Says Cyprus Instability Will Be Resolved http://t.co/E3RYIDQENi The politics r pretty toxic; time 2end euro experiment $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Outcry over Cyprus bailout taxing bank accounts http://t.co/kQ7DJgUN7P If it can happen in Cyprus, it can happen where you are too $$ #boo Mar 20, 2013
  • Daylight robbery in Cyprus will come to haunt EMU http://t.co/HsrbbJUVKk Imagine the US grabbing a portion of bank deposits in 1933 $$ #yuck Mar 20, 2013
  • Deauville Zombie Strikes as Cyprus Tax Inflames Crisis http://t.co/pkStGZyh5M Hard 2 believe confiscation of deposits wouldn’t lead 2runs $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • The Cyprus precedent @FelixSalmon http://t.co/EXBLMXj3by Taxing via confiscation doesn’t affect incentives, except the incentive 2 hide $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Cyprus: What Were They Thinking? and some other notes http://t.co/LJPQ7FRSaT Try 2tax depositors, esp Russians, trigger a bank run, great $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Cypriot authorities in revised deal talks http://t.co/f7NXFf5B9S This is getting desperate. Remember when they said subprime was small? $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Dejected official: ?If this is successful then it will be used in the future… If this is not successful then who cares about Cyprus.? $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Depositors Pay Price in Cyprus Bailout Deal http://t.co/CssNI6QUXK Imagine waking up one morning & 10% of your bank deposits r gone $$ #augh Mar 16, 2013

 

Energy

 

  • Sierra Club blasts new plan to improve fracking http://t.co/izJx8axguf Really depends on how much CO2 truly affects climate, jury is out $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Ethanol Slumps Against Gasoline on Speculation Imports to Climb http://t.co/nFGWml3HBZ Profitable to import Brazilian ethanol caps prices $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • HEARD ON THE STREET: Chevron, Shell and Big Oil’s Big Divide http://t.co/zcrclj78XS FD: + $CVX | Smart move was focusing on crude oil $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Wow, North Dakota, That?s a Lot of Oil http://t.co/NzKU4rhswH Up ~1000% in 10 years, would b more w/better transport (pipelines) $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Consumers to Pay $13B Price as Ethanol Upends Refiners http://t.co/qRr3ZnGPnB Ethanol an expensive fuel; we would not use it w/o govt req $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • Valero Cancels Sale of California Refineries http://t.co/tu1lXOLBe4 Now better 2 retain them, if cheap oil can b sent there via rail $$ $VLO Mar 19, 2013
  • Suntech Said to Get Default Notice on $541M Unpaid Bonds http://t.co/hiA8ZfvW2K Equity likely 2b wiped out, even w/some willing 2 4bear $$ Mar 17, 2013
  • Canada Wonders Why Crude Oil Is Coming From Texas http://t.co/aIKRNA7UoT This is the price of not permitting pipelines; US oil by tankers $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Three Years After the Spill, BP Gets Bullish http://t.co/owgnHfH9w5 FD: + $BP | Lots of valuable assets, but has the culture changed? $$ Mar 16, 2013

 

Financial Sector Issues

 

  • JP Morgan to Issue Its First Mortgage Bond Since 2007 http://t.co/M38KF7463e Reps & warranties weakened; harder 2 put back 2 originators $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • ?In money management what sells is the illusion of certainty.? http://t.co/iiqXAHTRZ8 @researchpuzzler comments on words of @John_Hempton $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • SumZero Honors: 14 Top Buyside Analysts http://t.co/cZRnfBQJVd @sumzero does a study of buyside analysts to find the best quietly working $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Proxy sites dump 1-click vote button on SEC concerns http://t.co/nycHC62TUa Levels the playing field a little bit; mgmt has 2 much power $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Masked by Gibberish, the Risks Run Amok http://t.co/bKvbpCRyvZ Floyd Norris can write me 4 clarity, or read this: http://t.co/bhJwuegzP5 $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Buffett Says Bet on Natural Juices of Market http://t.co/gyGA34vVMP USA is the most flexible place in the world, but stocks aren’t cheap $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • DeMarco pushes for 5-year wind down of GSEs http://t.co/aApiRMzoIK Don’t c how politics work here; pols don’t like 2 give up piggy bank $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Could gold be the next Libor scandal? | Business http://t.co/gstTm7EWQA Looks like real trades take place, so it doesn’t seem the same $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Workers Saving Too Little to Retire http://t.co/tWMYk3cpg8 I know of few people who save 20% of their incomes over 40 years $$ #prettytough Mar 19, 2013
  • Stock Bulls Get New Member of Club http://t.co/qEOMyG47WM I dunno, this makes me nervous. But 3% more upside in 2013 is no raving bull $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • Quantitative easing does little to boost gold prices http://t.co/o42EZUMk3T Gold prices react to inflation adjusted cost of carry $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Traders Short Junk-Bond ETFs as Gains Top 100%: Credit Markets http://t.co/4CmFy3ebaC Short interest = 11.5% of total outstanding shares $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Wrong: Want to Fix the Deficit? Get Real http://t.co/3fuRoKKw6S Increasing the deficit from here would worsen our long-term problems $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Boo! Derivatives, Japan, $$ demise, pension defaults, debt jubilee RT @StockTwits: Zombie Swans from Outer Space http://t.co/jcNoTTzolI #boo Mar 16, 2013
  • How to Safeguard Your 401(k) http://t.co/HRCNqz1RkJ If plan has annual match, do not count on it. Avoid employer stock; know plan rules $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Company Insiders Are Dumping Shares! Or Are They? http://t.co/D5cgLmM902 Best to look at what insiders do, not the large outside holders $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • If third-party custody fails in any significant way, i.e. bigger than what happened w/MF Global, all public investing will b ruined $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Are Your Assets Safe?No Matter What? http://t.co/vWvSVno7JC @jasonzweigwsj talks about custody; strong incentive 4 present system 2 work $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Golden State Hits Golden Age Of Bank M&A http://t.co/WLFhPq8jFC Higher capital requirements create demand for banks 2 merge in California $$ Mar 16, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Is Emerging Market Debt Undervalued? http://t.co/8hSOukeOKf I tend 2 think so, but performance so far this year has been subpar $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Bank of Japan vows ‘all means available’ to smash deflation http://t.co/AJ27okuZFZ Difficult 2 have inflation w/shrinking population $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • BRICs: a Slowing Dilemma http://t.co/furMgL5VTO The BRICs r not a natural group; very different econ, but as GWP growth slows, so do they $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • RAHN: Where will the next financial crisis begin? http://t.co/x2rBMqCJUG Numerous countries r poised 2 lead global tailspin; I pick EZone $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Spanish Banks Cut Developers as Zombies Dying http://t.co/CxRucV5Y7h Bottom not yet found for Spanish Real Estate $$ #bringoutyerdead #thud Mar 21, 2013
  • Europe?s work is far from over http://t.co/JfIY5PRW4f This is a colossal example of government management of the economy gone awry $$ #endit Mar 20, 2013
  • Canadian Household – Drowning in Debt http://t.co/XsdSDPBUn8 Canada: poster child 4 Central Bank-induced bubbles, amid good fiscal policy $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • BRICs Abandoned by Locals as Fund Outflows Reach 1996 High http://t.co/Xv4QZrNmSX Locals r throwing in the towel on stocks; time 2 buy? $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Argentina Debates Pope’s Political Past http://t.co/FY25FtCCF2 Probably one where the truth will never b known; hard to fight a dictator $$ Mar 16, 2013

 

US Politics & Policy

 

  • Stockton Creditors Face Long Odds to End City Bankruptcy http://t.co/WcEuHjJft1 Think Stockton’s gambit will lose $$ cc: @munilass Mar 22, 2013
  • Gingrich-Santorum ?Unity Ticket? Almost Toppled Romney http://t.co/8jBjvs868Q G+S-> 0+0 = -1. Romney= -2. All R candidates fatally flawed $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Getting the CIA Out of the Drone War http://t.co/kWcxz4mooN It matters less who does it, because there is no moral basis for it $$ #enditnow Mar 22, 2013
  • Mary Pat Christie Juggles Roles as Political Facilitator http://t.co/04VJb6UcbD Interesting background piece on Chris Christie’s wife $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Postal Service Can?t Cut Saturday Delivery, GAO Says http://t.co/3BbcJ1arge Loss of Saturday would b start of end 4 USPS> less relevant $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Rotten Tomatoes for a Billion-Dollar Farm Payout http://t.co/8FMfZnvqZC Ag is doing well in the US. Time to shut down much of the Ag Dept $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • California Nonpartisan Districting Ousts Life Incumbents http://t.co/1edUiXyizM Minimize internal boundaries subject 2 law requirements $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Army Carbine Program May Waste $1.8 Billion, Report Finds http://t.co/WQOhHRZ5Mw Another area of DoD waste. Insiders tell me -> lots more $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • The Smarter Healthcare Consumer Myth http://t.co/BSdzrzQmMu Many underinsured people do not go to see a doctor when they are sick $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • Puerto Rico slides toward insolvency http://t.co/WaOVo1dWUa Puerto Rico exists to make California look responsible & Illinois honest $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Or, as the late Bob Casey (former Governor of PA) once said, “You can’t lose if you are a pro-life Democrat.” $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • RNC Issues Scathing Analysis of GOP http://t.co/CsROwzkNxT Sounds dumb. Does not grasp the reliance of the GOP on moral issues voters $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • It’s a Lonely Quest for Land-Tax Fans, But, by George, They Press On http://t.co/yt8tPEVgjV Candidate 4 dustbin of history, dying hard $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Republicans Foil What Majority Wants by Gerrymandering http://t.co/h2gMnsO5cp I live in MD, w/Democrat Gerrymander http://t.co/9ORTUnVjo9 $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Roadkill May Reach Montana Menus Under Bill Allowing Fare http://t.co/5UsoOXeAsr Interesting 2c differences in state policies 4 roadkill $$ Mar 17, 2013
  • Obama Will Use Nixon-Era Law to Fight Climate Change http://t.co/HxRrpdoajr Expands National Environmental Policy Act to Climate Change $$ Mar 16, 2013

Other

 

  • The Beatles vs. the Taxman: A Former Manager Recalls Yesterday http://t.co/wNikAvMAdh Union of music,culture &finance cc: @reformedbroker $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • The Odd, Enduring Power of D?rer’s ‘Praying Hands’ http://t.co/QzEQsRYalP An idol 2b destroyed; far better 2 pray, regardless of hands $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • ‘The Croods’: Making the Cartoons Sing http://t.co/Pj50Vytvuo As a musician, I find this article makes me optimistic on popular music $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • ‘BioShock Infinite’: A Videmeogame With a Political Philosophy http://t.co/NzxQqrTXkM Americans r exceptional; doesn’t mean they r good $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • The Branding of ‘Liger’: Tiger Woods and Lindsey Vonn http://t.co/AW1CGnYHLh Two attractive sports stars dating? A marketing opportunity! $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Inside the Art of Handling Negative Online Reviews http://t.co/vzsenUcvjq When negative reviews come, act quickly, it could wipe you out $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Silicon Valley looks to Amy Andersen for love, at $50K a pop http://t.co/yVj37tUL9C Awkward men seeking wives need tailored personal help $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • How To Quarantine Java Like The Disease That It’s Become http://t.co/uhUcbRhFqh Sadly, I have to keep Java 4 my trading platform $$ #poison Mar 19, 2013
  • Study: Delaying marriage hurts middle-class Americans most http://t.co/ynHKcN4m4x Putting off marriage often means marriages don’t happen $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Helmets Preventing Concussion Seen Quashed by NFL-Riddell http://t.co/FF4Gh6Viyn Long story on how conflicts of interest led2 concussions $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • With Speech, Cardinal Set Path 2 Papacy http://t.co/rDDOXEwCA2 Argued RC Church was 2 introspective, better 2b out doing good, short talk $$ Mar 17, 2013
  • The New Unmarried Moms http://t.co/1hnxyrE67R Teen pregnancy reduced, childbearing outside wedlock rising among 20-somethings $$ #bad4kids Mar 16, 2013
  • New York Is Sterilizing Its Rats. Here’s How http://t.co/qryyCDiLoK Tasty stuff for rats that renders them infertile in 4 days $$ #whoknew Mar 16, 2013

 

Replies & Retweets

 

  • Could work $$ RT @steve_hanke: @AlephBlog @carney or try a swap. Here’s how we did it in Latin America: http://t.co/fvT6V6dX9u| #Cyprus Mar 22, 2013
  • @SconsetCapital In China, if the gov’t builds two bridges in a BOGO deal, I don’t think you’d want the free one 😉 Mar 22, 2013
  • @Donald_Shekels No, not with the Asian operations Mar 22, 2013
  • @Donald_Shekels I could have said worse than I did, but I worry about getting sued. Mar 22, 2013
  • @JPDesloges You are off to a good start at Financial Iceberg. Keep it up. Mar 21, 2013
  • @agnestcrane Global Inequality is dropping, though. Global wages converging. “Rethinking Comparable Worth” http://t.co/qBWe9kxnim $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Get well soon! RT @StockTwits: StockTwits Is presently down. Apologies for the inconvenience. We should be back up shortly. $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • @exMBB No. But title insurers had a rough time after housing bubble. Fraud drives most title insurance claims. Title insurance is complex Mar 20, 2013
  • @exMBB It’s all heavily depreciated. Not an issue. Mar 20, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: You’ve got it, Charles. Where IB is good it is very, very good, & where it is bad it is … http://t.co/o4fpUt2j66 Mar 20, 2013
  • @sleepyhungry It’s like a barrier option. Once it is breached it is over — this is only the 7th time I have done this. U made me smile Mar 20, 2013
  • Doing what their targets do RT @rcwhalen: Foreclosure Processor Prommis Holdings Files Chapter 11 http://t.co/mE30yP1gtj $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • But I think he is running out of options $$ $HRG RT @Nonrelatedsense: @AlephBlog continually amazed by Falcone. How does he do it? Mar 18, 2013
  • Extracts purchase price, retains control, kills bond buyers RT @Nonrelatedsense: continually amazed by Falcone. How does he do it? $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • I liked the photo RT @fundmyfund: @ritholtz what are you looking at in the new blog photo – a bird, a plane, or superman? Mar 18, 2013
  • RT @Royal_Arse: Mr. Merkel @AlephBlog is far more diplomatic than I in his tweet regarding pipeline construction. https://t.co/HIE2ngC4A3 Mar 16, 2013
  • @pdacosta 2 create a synthetic, u need 2 speculators: yield hog who wants a security @ a high yield, & a speculator who wants 2 short it Mar 16, 2013
  • @pdacosta If that ever had to happen, would b a crisis b/c synthetics r more numerous than organic. They can b & were created @ will. Mar 16, 2013

 

FWIW

?

  • My week on twitter: 54 retweets received, 2 new listings, 31 new followers, 58 mentions. Via: http://t.co/cPSEMLXpb8 Mar 21, 2013
  • Here’s my NCAA Bracket: http://t.co/ZK22T2bKnV #BlindfoldBracket2013 I’m no great fan of College Basketball, but I gave it a try $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • David Merkel (AlephBlog) on Twitter http://t.co/PsixuvsqiX Here’s a shout-out to my 7000th Twitter follower, Peter Saris @BMCA2461. Thanks! Mar 20, 2013

?

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

US Politics & Economic Policy

 

  • Employers Blast Fees From New Health Law http://t.co/FfuBRO2HQp Phases in the added costs of covering sick people previously uninsured $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Conservative Groups Warn GOP Lawmakers About Deals With Obama http://t.co/vui4GOINCw If this were a 2-player game, would have been solved $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Gundlach: Investors are asking the Wrong Question http://t.co/xA1UgvCica ht: @ReformedBroker QE as a permanent affair w/which we have 2 live Mar 15, 2013
  • New Group Pushes Corporate-Tax Overhaul http://t.co/P3dwgqQON6 Trying 2 End Double Taxation of foreign profits. Hasn’t worked so far $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • The Almighty Dollar Is Back http://t.co/F3iP3Zblyk Skeptical. Waiting for the Fed to announce increase of QE to send the $$ back down Mar 14, 2013
  • GIs Fighting Nazis Last Time Factory Workers Toiled Longer http://t.co/pVMlMGFRQ0 This is optimistic for new hiring $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Grand Bargain Taxes, Entitlements Cuts Await Deal Makers http://t.co/gJZ2c4Uc17 My sense is that we r heading 4 another deadlock $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Refusal to Expand Medicaid May Cost Employers $1 Billion http://t.co/kpxJmCeZvT Pressure is going to grow to eliminate PPACA & Medicaid $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • US Growth = Inventories http://t.co/dOIp5n9sPH Much of the presumed growth in the US is just rebuilding of inventories to a peak level $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • GOP Budget Establishes Contrast With Democrats http://t.co/ocLQndOvsP No chance of it being passed, but gives an idea of where 2 sides r $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • SEC Charges Illinois Over Pension Funding http://t.co/MxEF6hPYPy This is how it should be. No one gets punished in the slightest. $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • Note from last tweet: a lot of ppl want to punish bankers, what about state officials who lie – they r much bigger, where is the outcry? $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • Fed mulls putting a ‘not for sale’ sign on its assets http://t.co/uZAcaHmLeO A sign of weakness from the Fed; they know they r trapped $$ Mar 10, 2013

 

Roman Catholic Church

 

  • Jesuits Had Past Struggles With Popes http://t.co/P8Vy8YEifr In the RC church, they have top liberation theologians &their top opposition $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Ten things you probably didn?t know about the Jesuits http://t.co/tFijZNMkV9 If the Church have defined anything to be black… amazing $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • The sins of the Argentine church http://t.co/FTzKlsq1I7 New Pope may have been complicit w/Military Dictators killing their enemies. $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • The Changing Church http://t.co/mDPol6orR5 Interesting 2c change in locations of Cardinals. Size of RC church overstated, many not active $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • How Is the Pope Elected? http://t.co/j8p5L9dB5I A little late, but I thought this was an interesting infographic on papal elections $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • African Catholics Look to Black Pope to Safeguard Tradition http://t.co/vxZrJJDgvv US Media does not get how traditional most Catholics r $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Black Smoke Signals No New Pope http://t.co/9qp8nzlbRb More & less unity in RCC than commonly thought. More: Europe, Less: elsewhere $$ Mar 12, 2013

 

Financial Markets

 

  • To all of the fixed income followers out there: someone asked me today to recommend good bond blogs. What would you recommend? Mar 15, 2013
  • Highest Bond Yield at Auction in a Year Could Be Sign of Things to Come http://t.co/fShhD5iAlp Or it could be a buying opportunity $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • $OAK Founder Knows How to Get an Edge in Investing http://t.co/TaRQSiK5gI “Experience is what u get when u didn’t get what u wanted.” $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Smallcap Stock Volatility Index Hits All-Time Low http://t.co/l6tCXV7VS4 Complacency is the rule of the the day among small cap stocks $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • 5 ways Warren Buffett invests that you don?t http://t.co/AeCs8fqe6g Good job describing what parts of Buffett’s strategies can b mimicked $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing http://t.co/HNHqI40vDP Example of y I don’t read Seeking Alpha $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • New Carlyle Group Fund Lowers Bar for Investors http://t.co/xiCTwy07Zk As @reformedbroker aptly put it, “Muppet Bait” Avoid. Avoid. $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Fidelity to Expand ETF Relationship With BlackRock http://t.co/d4PIiCb7oh Fidelity says “Me 2,” by partnering with $BLK . No value added $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • moving down-market http://t.co/qP0YSWKubG @researchpuzzler has it right, inviting small accounts in means opportunities r getting worse $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Historical S&P 500 Price to Sales (P/S) Chart http://t.co/dm2ZhDDgtE Useful little chart – around avg now, but profit margins r a record $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • SP500 Bull and Bear Factors – Not so Fun Damentals! http://t.co/5OjwvLbLPw Bull factors: QE, Buybacks, Yen. Bear: Econ data, Earnings mo $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Gold Sales From Soros Reveal 12-Yr Bull Run Decay http://t.co/ze7DSsdIkN Makes me want 2 do a piece on $$ weighted vs time weighted on $GLD Mar 13, 2013
  • Why (Most) People Hate Good Financial News http://t.co/PZcf1usKD1 Regret is a strong force in psyche of amateur investors: missing out $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • How Much Of The Stock Market?s Growth Is Caused By Its Shrinking? http://t.co/Kfxipqvr1Y I would be skeptical here; capital changes weak $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • Securities Lending: Worth The ?Risk? http://t.co/AZxSKFzM2T When done right, sec lending is almost free money, the risks r low. $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • New ETF Underway for Distressed Debt http://t.co/Wp3ZPwaZqj Bad idea. Creating indexes for distressed bonds will be hard, Won’t attract $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • Firms Send Record Cash Back to Investors http://t.co/n0vNv0ppei A sign of economic weakness; there are few places to invest for growth $$ Mar 10, 2013

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong: Amazon Preparing Bid For Barnes And Noble? http://t.co/qYB3yE6u8U Combination would not be allowed by the FTC $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Wrong: Why Insurers May Be Unprepared for the Next Big Storm http://t.co/WuJIpvtVBj Most P&C insurers have more than adequate reserves $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Wrong: The US can?t afford a Chinese economic collapse http://t.co/9vskptvxvx We can afford it; China won’t affect much in the US $$ Mar 12, 2013

 

Rest of the World

 

  • China s Next Potential Bubble: Hello, Anybody Home? http://t.co/IstgcTQZCN Trapped. Potential sellers need prices 2 stay high, buyers low $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Embrace consumption, IMF’s Zhu urges China http://t.co/TAc5toyktZ Easier said than done. Party not ready to give people more freedom. $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Nordic Testicular Cancer Mystery Prompts Chemicals Probe http://t.co/LqwH8klTLq Interesting, might be a combo of genetics & environment $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Jeffrey ??s Japan Stocks http://t.co/lvhM6LFXAv?s-japan-stocks/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter Weak yen drives Japan stocks up $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Recent cyberattacks could be part of a Chinese military strategy started nearly 20 years ago http://t.co/NxZ99g2ZKo Explains what is up now Mar 14, 2013
  • Brazil?s Richest Family Forging $13 Billion Niobium Dream http://t.co/2MHbOkhHPd Stronger flexible steel from a Brazilian tech company $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Even Berlusconi Can?t Slow Bulls Boosting Euro View http://t.co/PV2mGvfHRr Great 4 core Eurozone, bad news 4 the fringe Eurozone $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Chinese inflation hits 10-month high http://t.co/rGZJHoZsqj The end of the cycle comes when Chinese inflation gets out of control $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Snow Causes European Travel Chaos http://t.co/tz3afCLET9 That’s one thing about weather & climate, constantly changing & always will $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Should You Bond With Azerbaijan? http://t.co/gpE429eGa8? by @jasonzweigwsj | Emerging market govts are better run than developed govts $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • Norway Fund Flees Currencies Tainted by Stimulus Addiction http://t.co/X7YasIGkKn Rational response2 depreciating currencies: hail Norway $$ Mar 12, 2013

 

Banks

 

  • JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon showed too much hubris and too little humility http://t.co/4feQB2Q6Jx @moorehn highlights cultural problem @ $JPM $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Bubble Exchange: Technology vs Financials http://t.co/BJKoaFfjdo Suggests that financials, not tech, will do better in the future $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • EU Said to Plan Concession on Tax Credits as Bank Capital http://t.co/Ss3J4KBGbv Deferred Tax Assets should not be allowed as capital $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Deferred Tax Assets r only valuable if a company makes $$ in the future, which for a bank in distress is less likely; should not b capital Mar 15, 2013
  • Beware of a New Banking Bubble http://t.co/gr5c2S9NaI Three recent deals involved premiums of 32% to 83% above tangible book value $$ #fire Mar 14, 2013
  • Fisher and Rosenblum: How to Shrink the TBTF Banks http://t.co/pNfzML2A22 Could work, roll back safety net, keep pieces small, holdcos fail Mar 14, 2013
  • 5 Big Questions for the Future of Retail Banking http://t.co/sCKi6QjfCu Branches buy/sell, online/mobile, layoffs, interest margins down $$ Mar 14, 2013

 

Companies & Industries

 

  • Lawmakers Examine Ethanol Credits’ Affect on Gas Prices http://t.co/5RHXnKcuFG Wasteful program doesn’t aid conservation adds 2 pollution $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • 5 beloved tech products that were sentenced to death http://t.co/bg4S90UHlZ Impending death of Google Reader makes writer wax nostalgic $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Google and Bing Say the Future of Search Is Conversational http://t.co/mx2gfh6oSr Software improves ability 2 understand contextual data $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Herbalife short-seller sues banks, Icahn over alleged fraud http://t.co/NaL4X9aXW3 Losing investor throws good $$ after bad, will not win Mar 14, 2013
  • Evolv, Making Hourly Workers More Profitable, Lands $15 Million http://t.co/DDEyoCk7Ay Improves retention of the employees u want 2 keep $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Lincoln?s Cooper Shuns Shoot-For-Moon Funds After Goldman http://t.co/7PdLGT5TGb This does not make me feel better about $LNC. Avoid. $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • How Benjamin Franklin Invented the Mail-Order Business http://t.co/TC6DmWsZck A look at the precursors to mail-order retail. Interesting $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Lego Builds New Billionaires as Toymaker Topples Mattel http://t.co/jxkqNatzZk Family controls 75% of the operation through Kirkbi A/S $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • 8 Megatrends Defining the Oil & Gas Industry http://t.co/Taz5Dsujwh Nationalization, Ending subsidies, Green, New frontiers, LNG, M&A $$ &c Mar 14, 2013
  • Blackstone Said to Get $2.1 Billion Loan for Home Purchases http://t.co/qDg7DrSBGk I’m skeptical, don’t think renting homes is scalable $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Many hospitals, doctors offer cash discount for medical bills http://t.co/ckLOHxh1TH ht: @dpinsen | Sometimes ucan pay less w/o insurance $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Gas Rigs Drop to Fewest Since 1999 as Drilling Declines http://t.co/b3YztqbTqs Almost like the old days when they would flare off natgas $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Starr Proceeds With Fight Over $AIG Rescue http://t.co/WPNIOyib7B I don’t think he will win, but Greenberg will get his day in court $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Beating The Downturn By Degrees http://t.co/9BT69ix6Fs Good summary article on the for-profit educators $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • Liberal-Arts Colleges Dangle Deals to Woo Students http://t.co/v3Qd07x8AD Pay for 4 years & never have 2 pay again; u *can* finish 4 free $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • InTrade Online Betting Site Shuts Down Abruptly http://t.co/Rb0Ppald2u A long shot from the start, current bettors may b stuck w/the loss $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • Green Cars Have a Dirty Little Secret http://t.co/wk5UfvYiYn Producing and charging electric cars means heavy carbon-dioxide emissions. $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • Uninsured Americans Get Hit With Biggest Hospital Bills http://t.co/6QeybZMIz8 First value of insurance is buying power lowering prices $$ Mar 12, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Jim Gaffigan Is the King of (Clean) Comedy http://t.co/RhUM30krSU Heartening 2c clean humor getting attention; certainly harder 2 do $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • The Bearded Man http://t.co/ub5n07UjFZ I’m no trendsetter. If you’re out of fashion long enough, eventually u accidentally get in fashion $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Does money taint the sharing economy? http://t.co/yTjd3w8ThO If you want an organization to last, there must be a profit margin $$ Mar 15, 2013
  • Scientists find how deadly new virus infects human cells http://t.co/YLfoqPbvJ1 Disease is similar to SARS. Infected 15, killed 9 $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • Former Ravens May Outnumber Ravens http://t.co/SIxpATVmC6 Noticed in Baltimore; curse of the Joe Flacco contract; less $$ for rest of team Mar 14, 2013

 

Retweets & Replies

  • ‘ @tradewins @moorehn The problems are concealing data from the regulators, & Dimon perhaps concealing what he truly knew at the time $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • @TWealthMgmt Yeah, they are good, & I mentioned them. Seems many bond blogs have folded; they had a finite maturity 😉 Mar 15, 2013
  • @nelson3748 Railroads r scarce; impossible to replicate; has a big moat w/pricing power; trucking has no moat; scale is needed Mar 14, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “5 ways Warren Buffett invests that you don?t – Jonathan Burton’s Life Savings – MarketWat?” http://t.co/2tjAaDwkV7 Mar 14, 2013
  • Yes, but the nice thing about Pi day is that it has been a round RT @EddyElfenbein: Celebrating Pi Day seems so irrational. Mar 14, 2013
  • @EliHoffmann Don’t get me wrong I *like* dividends & have for a long time. They r more frail than the new advocates assume Mar 14, 2013
  • @EliHoffmann There r other things he got wrong re insurance, but the faith in dividends is naive. They get cut in bad periods like the ’70s Mar 14, 2013
  • @EliHoffmann Annuities r guaranteed by state guarantee funds Mar 14, 2013
  • @DavidSchawel Thanks, but r u bullish on it or neutral? Mar 14, 2013
  • @DavidSchawel How successful? Mar 14, 2013
  • No RT @pdacosta: VZ president says Chavez, now close to Christ, had a hand in choice of South American pope http://t.co/WYR2izYIsk Mar 14, 2013
  • “Pretty cool. Billy Joel took a chance on the student, and it was beautiful. Kid had moxie.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/YBUfXDNSGH $$ Mar 14, 2013
  • UCan say that again RT @ReformedBroker:Muppet Bait MT @researchpuzzler:Don’t miss your chance 2 play w/big boys of PE http://t.co/5fg2tLPXS3 Mar 14, 2013
  • Listening to broadcasters in Rome, it reminds me of the Super Bowl when the power went out; gotta say something, but not much to say… $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • . @scott_matagrano Also, $AIG’s domestic life companies were BK until rescued b/c of sec lending… long story: http://t.co/EmnSclWqVS $$ Mar 13, 2013
  • @scott_matagrano Not *quite* riskless. There were some bond trades I could not execute b/c we could not get the shares back. Mar 13, 2013
  • @merrillmatter I don’t but some of my clients do. Mar 13, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker Hey Josh, where is that indicator now? Mar 12, 2013
  • @weelifeworkplay Saw that, but property tends not to vary in value as much as currencies do. Owning land tends to preserve value, mostly $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • @prchovanec In a word, overvalued. P/E measurements of value fluctuate too much b/c earnings varies more than sales or book $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • @exMBB I avoid life companies that primarily write variable business; the accounting quality is poor. No opinion on $PNX $$ Mar 12, 2013
  • @SagittaCapital I’m afraid that one is a ‘No.” I don’t have a lot to say there. Mar 12, 2013
  • @60Minutes @sherylsandberg That’s dumb. It could just be rudeness, or ego, and the same applies to boys. Will to power <> leadership $$ Mar 11, 2013
  • @prchovanec P/E is more significant in the short-run. CAPE10 & Q-ratio more significant in the long run. $$ Mar 10, 2013

 

FWIW

 

  • My week on twitter: 48 retweets received, 11 new listings, 51 new followers, 55 mentions. Via: http://t.co/cPSEMLXpb8 Mar 14, 2013

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Rest of the World

 

  • IMF: Canada could make case for more interest rate cuts http://t.co/Zd3zmMUH IMF peddles snake oil2Canada, lower rates would b a disaster $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Why Venezuela’s Devaluation Is Biting http://t.co/LL54JRZ8 Corporations operating in Venezuela get hit b/c there is no good way 2 hedge $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Soros Aide Wins Kudos for Japan Bets http://t.co/DoaYtYMJ Scott Bessent has his own investing ideas, freeing his boss 2 peddle bad ideas $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Euro-Zone Economy Plunges http://t.co/JEQVfGep Eventually Germany is going to have to accept that debts they r owed must be written down $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Tensions Mount as China Snatches Farms for Homes http://t.co/a8aIqqxR Only backward countries like China prohibit ownership of land $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • China’s Internet ‘Wall’ Hits Business http://t.co/Kh7zDD0E The Great Firewall of China hinders commerce. Also, harder to get VPNs now $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • No Shirakawa Eulogies as JGBs Look Beyond Weak BOJ http://t.co/9orwutaY The BOJ is still sterilizing, but they r buying long-dated JGBs $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Japan Needs Weaker Yen; US Has No Right to Complain http://t.co/OG5tcNFS At least *someone* has2test resolve of US “Strong Dollar Policy” $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Panasonic CEO Attacks Sprawl in Bid for Profit: Tech http://t.co/bfsbdZLO $PC is a tough turnaround, but maybe this guy could do it. $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Irish Town Lives Up to Motto Amid Horse-Meat Scandal http://t.co/cMIQRtUd ?Be at the center,? is the motto of the Irish town of Ballybay. $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • G7 Nations Attempt to Avoid Currency War http://t.co/CJjCgjzr G-7 Roils Currency Markets With Split on Concern Over Yen http://t.co/xH2ro4tk Feb 13, 2013
  • The problems with Petrobras http://t.co/pgibXCf5 Rapid growth & large investment plans rarely work well; good growth is incremental $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • USD-JPY: False Start? http://t.co/kVWnFDH6 The Japanese r changing the currency game; the sterilization is gone. What central bank next? $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Chinese Workers?in Greenland? – Businessweek http://t.co/nmzjpHaP China moves 2 monopolize rare earth metals, maybe, now mining Greenland $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Canadian Mega Housing Bubble Part 2 – Impact on Canadian Economy http://t.co/WbS22E3Z On the bright side, Canadian Gov’t not overindebted $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Canada is not immune of a global slowdown http://t.co/NDCdMHOY slower global economy -> slower increase in demand 4 crude oil $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Chavez Risks Backlash as Venezuelan Deficit Prompts Devaluation http://t.co/V5RLwpMW Squanders well-being of nation for personal goals $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • An Insider’s Guide to Counterfeiting Wine – Businessweek http://t.co/SoVp0OrF 3 ways to counterfeit expensive wines & how to avoid them $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Most Australian Wine Exports Ship in Giant Plastic Bladders http://t.co/jL1S9KLF ?We don?t ship glass around the world, we ship wine.? $$ Feb 09, 2013

US Politics

 

  • State Exchange Buildout Shifts Into High Gear http://t.co/mwSFxe9e When history deals w/what destroyed healthcare, will b a pic of Obama $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • James Bovard: Perform Criminal Background Checks at Your Peril http://t.co/y8kZYsq4 Another reason why most jobs aren’t advertised $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • A Chinese Hacker’s Identity Unmasked http://t.co/5BE5XgKe Details the means by which a significant Chinese hacker was exposed. $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Republicans See Obama Second-Term Agenda as Dead in Water http://t.co/uR4sUMjI Worked in 2011-2012, will work in 2013-2014 $$ #justsayno Feb 14, 2013
  • Public Expenditures Austerity and SP500 addicted to QE http://t.co/TzTzL9VL We need to have a debate over whether QE helps real economy $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • How Not to Run a Pension http://t.co/MwNhzEdd John Mauldin on pensions mess we r in federal, state, & municipal. Blue states worst off $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Central Banks Gone Wild: What Can Investors Do? http://t.co/wzL2xadd Gold, stocks, & the currency of the one that loosened last w/ a lag $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Obama S&P Case Started When Toxic Debt Masqueraded as AAA http://t.co/V9umvcfN S&P shuld show how little $$ was lost on AAA securitized debt Feb 12, 2013
  • US Economy – Growth Still coming from Borrowing? http://t.co/MTRiKYNi Yes, a lot of current consumption stems from more consumer debt $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Corn growers get two-thirds of record US crop insurance payout http://t.co/2D1wWc0E Farm lobby swilling @ trough, subsidies not needed $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Central banking and bubbles: Scott Sumner is wrong | The Economist http://t.co/wDTZzEQ6 It’s not hard to measure total debt / GDP ratio $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Biofuel Scandal Pushes Trading Firm Into Bankruptcy http://t.co/uETQyx0D firm accidentally sold $9 million worth of fake biofuel credits $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Should the Fed pop bubbles by raising interest rates? http://t.co/IhKnbA80 Fed should avoid creating bubbles in the first place $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • Bipartisan Letter Seeks Answers on Open-Government Failures http://t.co/shFKY7PB Many people voted for change & got Bush-plus in return $$ Feb 09, 2013

 

Berkshire Hathaway & Heinz

 

  • Shopping Spree for Wall Street http://t.co/QNfGJ14E Premature I think. Yesterday was big4 M&A, but it could just b a fluke $$ $HNZ $AMR $LCC Feb 15, 2013
  • First Bud, Now Heinz, Brazilian Deal Maker Lemann Grabs Brands http://t.co/CxWLqjPH A glimpse at the guys *really* behind the $HNZ deal $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Buffett?s Buffet: An All-American Meal at Warren?s Table http://t.co/WyjedMKb Can get a complete high-calorie meal at Warren’s restaurant $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Three Billionaires Join Buffett for Heinz Deal http://t.co/avb4QtVb Meet real guys behind the $HNZ deal; Buffett is riding on their bus $$ Feb 14, 2013

 

Other

?

  • Pope?s Culture Club Masks Conclave Packed With Benedict?s Clones http://t.co/0cv1g1T0 1st article I’ve seen that gets it. No major change $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Home Schooling & working from home has odd fun moments like my 16yo asking, “Why is the NE legislature unicameral?” http://t.co/CefD1i4p $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Uncork the Nose’s Secret Powers http://t.co/jKTvg3Ki There is an element of “use it or lose it” 4 ability to smell as we age $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • LightSquared?s Ghost Raised in Fight Over Talking Cars http://t.co/CGuxCIvh Maybe the Defense Dept could free up some spectrum it hoards $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • The World’s Top 10 Most Innovative Companies in Finance http://t.co/pzqzRJUr Mostly credit/transaction facilitators, some risk mgmt $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Skin in Which Game? http://t.co/UV18ORq0 If I was going into an intellectual fight, I would bring @EpicureanDeal w/me rather than @nntaleb Feb 11, 2013
  • Blizzard Dumps Snow in Northeast, Knocks Out Power http://t.co/nji84Ub0 My sympathies. Remember 3 years ago getting 2 of those in a row $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Are Polar Bears Really Disappearing? http://t.co/5Epxg666 Probably not, population is bigger than in 1965, but small than in 1990 $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • A ‘Bucket List’ for Better Diversification http://t.co/XqjjhklO from @jasonzweigwsj | Good strategy, similar to the Permanent Portfolio Feb 09, 2013

?

Companies

?

  • Cisco Won’t Spend Money In The US Until The Tax Code Is Changed http://t.co/mbB7Dwk3 Logical outcome of poorly designed corp tax policy $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Buffett does all he can to make his 13F hard to drag into Excel $$ $BRK.B Feb 15, 2013
  • As I go through 13F filings, it’s interesting to see industry concentrations. Some like retail, others financials, tech, energy etc $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Dodge & Cox http://t.co/zJzIEISU Maybe it shouldn’t make me feel better when I see a manager I like owning shares that I do, but it does $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • P&G Finds a ?Goldmine? in Analytics http://t.co/y0mnK8kH All large consumer businesses will realize detailed consumer knowledge is key $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • $AAPL at Cheapest Since 2000 Signals Buy to Gamco, Thornburg http://t.co/rllHxys5 Not simple; Big companies need bigger markets 2 grow $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • $FLEX raises $1B as a junk grade company for 7 & 10 years @ 4 5/8% & 5% & raises financial flexibility http://t.co/hOuCNEP7 FD: + $FLEX Feb 13, 2013
  • Assurant Gains as Fannie Mae Force-Placed Plan Stalls http://t.co/ELDqXD5O $AIZ soldiers on, w/rate decreases, but with a strong business $$ Feb 13, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • We still have renters to thank for healthier housing market http://t.co/apBD0gHD Which means 2many properties r in the hands of investors $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Do Junk Bonds Still Live in the Best of Both Worlds? http://t.co/j2w2docJ Demand 4 income is unabated, but there r limits 2 how low yields go Feb 14, 2013
  • SP500 Futures – Warning Signs Flashing RED? http://t.co/4gDyn3Ap Compendium of a lot of bearish reasoning, FWIW $$ Feb 13, 2013
  • Bridgewater Bets on Stocks as Cash Moves Into Market http://t.co/GZTePjCz Dalio bets on reflation amid central banks fanning the flames $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • How banks could get blown away by bond bubble http://t.co/xVpBFWmH A bond market in rebellion could deliver a lot of MTM losses 2 banks $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • The Fed?s tricky QE3 escape http://t.co/mcQadLoh There is no escape; when bond market turns on the Fed, vacuous policies will b exposed $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • US High Yield Bonds: $HYG Disconnect with $SPY http://t.co/r0t4DASq S&P 500 strong while junk is weakening. Could b toxic for stocks $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • To Drown in OIL http://t.co/xVJlIwZj Cushing inventories are at records, even w/the Seaway Pipeline pumping crude to Houston $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • SP500 Futures- More Warning Signs? http://t.co/Uc9LNqQB Too much bullishness, credit feeling soggy $$ $SPY Feb 12, 2013
  • Buyout-Boom Shakeout Seen Leaving One in Four to Starve http://t.co/wPcBuebk Always best to invest when capital is scarce, not in glut $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • How Should an Investor Decide Whether to Dump a Mutual Fund That Has Been Doing Poorly? http://t.co/9c7lY4yI 12 opinions, mostly indexing $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Nasdaq Talked With Carlyle About Going Private: Sources http://t.co/LoFBgXH3 Cheap $$ looking 4a home; question boils down 2 price $NSDQ $CG Feb 12, 2013
  • Why These 4 Refinery Stocks Boast Bolting RS Lines http://t.co/jlb6luXS Will have to sell a refiner soon; momo crowd creating overshoot $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Dell Defends Deal: ?Offers an Attractive and Immediate Premium’ http://t.co/xrSaBCRs Objectors wud b convincing if they bot aggressively $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • The Dell Deal Is a Steal That May Die http://t.co/sVQj7aoe What amuses me is that largest complainer has been selling even as low as $10 $$ Feb 09, 2013

?

Wrong

  • Wrong: Buffett Cash Targets General Mills to Grainger http://t.co/TybErutX Many do articles like this; none of them ever prove correct $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • Wrong: Congress Starts Examining Changes to Charitable Tax Break http://t.co/cLSOeDUU There r much better ways to raise taxes or simplify $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Plans to Expand Preschool Unveiled http://t.co/VWDcxkAE It is better educationally to have young children @ home most of the time $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Wall Street Fading as Emerging-Market Banks Gain Share http://t.co/NLoYMLNy Too soon, the EM banks r immature w/risk control $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Wrong: Next Pope to Face Calls for Renewal After Benedict Resisted http://t.co/LNQ30x5Q American media does not understand the Vatican $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • Wrong: An Aging Population May Be What the World Needs http://t.co/RBjuVRce Economies do not work well when # of workers shrinks $$ Feb 11, 2013

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Replies and Retweets

  • .@joshuademasi Come on in it’s around the back, just a half a mile from the railroad track. U can get anything u want @ Warren’s restaurant Feb 15, 2013
  • @michellemalkin For the most part, I don’t tweet to engage; I use it to inform. Used 2do news blog posts, now I tweet good stuff 2 read $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • @richriker EDGAR is free. There are some pay services that make it simpler to get 13F data, or other data filed w/the SEC Feb 15, 2013
  • ‘ @richriker Depends what you mean. They are all available at EDGAR http://t.co/PjUFyetg I have the pgs for 77 mgrs bookmarked $$ Feb 15, 2013
  • @Nonrelatedsense They did, as did Legg Mason, Third Avenue & others that thought value investing was “buy it cheap,” not safety Feb 14, 2013
  • @PlanMaestro Thanks, btw, I like your new logo — cool Feb 14, 2013
  • @researchpuzzler Thanks for showing that to me; I expect most actuaries will yawn at it; academics doing theory when current methods work $$ Feb 14, 2013
  • Shocking revelation RT @EddyElfenbein: “I?m aggressive and annoying” – Paul Krugman http://t.co/9r8z51ke Feb 13, 2013
  • Bank shills $$ RT @davidmwessel: All 12 Fed bank presidents write FSOC asking for tougher rules on money market funds. http://t.co/0XhI4WXs Feb 12, 2013
  • U know it RT @historysquared: “TREASURY SECRETARY NOMINEE LEW:Says He Will Maintain a Strong Dollar Policy if Confirmed.” – do they all lie? Feb 13, 2013
  • ‘ @GaelicTorus I’m only human. Herod forgot that. http://t.co/iixVdgAN I haven’t. Thanks for the praise, though. Feb 13, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “Warren Buffett turns his eye to annuities – MarketWatch” http://t.co/kz7S0yVP Feb 13, 2013
  • On the tweet two previous: long $AIZ . one of the best insurance companies I have known Feb 13, 2013
  • @JamesMarsh79 My view is inbetween. There r regularities, but w/a lot of noise around them Feb 12, 2013
  • Dalio is like Gross, he plans intermediate term but adjusts frequently $$ RT @jckhewitt: Whatever happened to that beautiful deleveraging? Feb 12, 2013
  • @MarshallFraser I don’t disagree w/crop ins., just the subsidy most of which makes it into the pockets of Big Ag & insurers, not familyfarms Feb 12, 2013
  • $JNK & $RUT diverge significantly, uh oh $$ RT @DougKass: One of the scariest charts extant http://t.co/WeLlmyhu (Hat tip Divine Ms M!) Feb 12, 2013
  • “I was skeptical of Apple, but I only mentioned it in tweets, so I can’t take much credit?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/L6p8D5Ic $AAPL $$ Feb 12, 2013
  • @joshuademasi Also, that every tightening cycle over the last 30 years ending with something blowing up; Fed rides to the rescue 2 soon $$ Feb 11, 2013
  • @joshuademasi I know that, but the ultimate proof over the last 30 years was the massive accumulation of debts from their ez $$ policy Feb 11, 2013
  • @ScottGalupo Totally disagree. BBA has been needed 4 40 years, and would have limited damage done in the present crisis. Debt is the problem Feb 10, 2013
  • @zringer21 Responded — hope you like it. Feb 10, 2013
  • @jasonzweigwsj I really admire your views, as you may surmise from my comments. Here is my piece on the topic: http://t.co/yPpCBfOM $$ Feb 10, 2013
  • @jasonzweigwsj I have written about this: http://t.co/yPpCBfOM Few want to follow sound ideas. Problem: If everyone did this gold wud soar Feb 10, 2013
  • @cate_long I am conservative in most ways, but Peter Wallison makes me nervous; I don’t usually trust his reasoning. Not enough real thought Feb 09, 2013
  • RT @EmanuelDerman: The EMH was economic jiu-jitsu to turn weakness into strength. “I can’t figure out how things work, so I’ll make that … Feb 09, 2013

 

FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 48 retweets received, 2 new listings, 74 new followers, 58 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Feb 14, 2013

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Currency Wars

 

  • Battling the unknowns of currency devaluation | Reuters http://t.co/3kiN75eT A tough game to play, particularly w/changed policy in Japan $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • This is what a currency war looks like http://t.co/ibWgIZTg Japan is leading the #currencywar by no longer sterilizing monetary policy $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • The Dark Side of Japan’s Creating Inflation http://t.co/3O384dKU Risk is interest rates rise and Japan can’t finance itself. #tippingpoint Feb 07, 2013
  • Japan Inc.?s appreciation of the yen?s depreciation http://t.co/zdYFkcYR Japanese stocks rally as their exports get relatively cheaper $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Falling yen set to spark renewed currency wars http://t.co/1QXtUFoA Japan has finally “thrown the hammer down.” No more sterilization $$ Feb 05, 2013

 

LBOs

?

  • Dell?s largest outside shareholder thinks it?s worth $10 more a share – Quartz http://t.co/1gr8dTZb Let Southeastern et al bid 4 control $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • The Three Scariest Letters for Bondholders: L-B-O | Fox Business http://t.co/wEEHVJUR Note: junk bonds r protected from this, not invt grade Feb 09, 2013
  • New Worry for Bondholders: LBOs http://t.co/KumxFjws Company is cheap & has good Bal Sheet, it could LBO, harming current bondholders $$ Feb 04, 2013

?

Pensions

?

  • Danger Seen in Pension Fund Cuts on Abe Inflation http://t.co/wDu6fWjE Guess what? Inflation can harm pensioners. Sad 4 them. $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Pension Funds Cut Back On Commodity Indexes http://t.co/ZSvFgIoG Hoarding not a panacea, also, can get clipped on the roll $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • The Asset Mix (Stocks-Bonds) will make the Difference – 2 many Bonds Mr Abe? http://t.co/AOHm6p5X On pension asset allocation globally $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Baby Boomers Sicker Than Parents? Generation, Study Finds http://t.co/Xy7VIs0n Will live longer too; big reason to reshape Medicare $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Americans Rip Up Retirement Plans http://t.co/s5UARuld Nearly 2/3rds of Those Between 45 & 60 Plan Delays, Steep Rise From 2 Yrs Ago $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Low Rates Force Companies to Pour Cash Into Pensions http://t.co/32JNXekQ Low long rates push pension liabilities higher, req $$ payment Feb 04, 2013

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High Yield

 

  • US High Yield Bonds: HYG On the support http://t.co/Gcj35TAJ In order 4 HY 2 rally from here, need dumb buyers 2 apply leverage $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Fed?s Stein: Signs of Overheating in Credit Markets http://t.co/TAT7QcwB Junk yields less than in June 2007. Replace CDO bid w/Fed $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Two Things about High-Yield Bonds Investors Must Understand Today http://t.co/w3n4IODi Low yields & spread relatives & high $$ prices Feb 07, 2013
  • A Mad Rush Could Be Coming In The Corporate Credit Markets http://t.co/KFGkM3gQ Possible, but it depends on how levered investors are $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • No, there probably isn?t a bond bubble http://t.co/92p5SJBz Misses key question: how much debt is being issued to acquire other debts? $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • US Higher Yield Bonds: A Corrective Update http://t.co/RITd5UGl Corrections may be happening w/ both credit & high-quality long-duration $$ Feb 04, 2013

 

 

S&P Lawsuit

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  • State Lawsuits Could Add to S&P Exposure http://t.co/oQSwfYFR Attorneys General for states become profit centers; opportunistic thieves Feb 07, 2013
  • Wrong: Levitt Says McGraw-Hill ?Foolish? to Not Settle S&P Lawsuit http://t.co/dEL4g1ja There’s a good chance that S&P will win, y give up Feb 07, 2013
  • S&P Lawsuit Undermined by SEC Rules That Impede Competition http://t.co/GCUE01zz Will not be simple for the govt to win its case $$ #FTL Feb 07, 2013
  • S&P Lawsuit Portrays CDO Sellers as Duped Victims http://t.co/rAI69G1G Stretching truth; CDO sellers knew credit better than agencies $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • S&P feels Justice’s lash, but can law ever conquer greed? http://t.co/SVDZVZtG Diffcult 2 single out people/firms 2 prosecute in big crisis Feb 05, 2013

?

Companies

 

  • Top NY court throws Travelers asbestos award into question http://t.co/GAujEmCH Case started in 1948, when USF&G insured Western Asbestos Feb 08, 2013
  • Buffett?s Son Says He?s Prepared Whole Life for Berkshire Role http://t.co/xYWVlMu8 As Chairman, Howard will be “cultural guardian.” $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • San Francisco Gasoline Rises as Tesoro Seen Cutting Rates http://t.co/4Rmvbcz1 It’s tough when state governments discourage refineries $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Bond insurers aren’t the only winners in Rakoff’s Flagstar ruling http://t.co/6A2IICLD All can rely on reps & warranties of mtge origin8rs Feb 07, 2013
  • Berkshire-Insured Muni Sees Good Demand http://t.co/yKX1lGPy Nothing amazing; some $BRK.B businesses r part of the development borrowing Feb 07, 2013
  • Life Insurer CFOs Say Their Financial Models Fall Short: Survey http://t.co/zJ3f2DJc Surprising, another reason 2b bearish on life ins Feb 07, 2013
  • BlackRock Cautious as Sales End Dollar Bond Rally: China Credit http://t.co/4LZDSoMf Questions over credit quality, maybe 2 much supply $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • Herbalife Drops After Report of Law-Enforcement Probe http://t.co/zC0a9GGv $HLF rises today. $$ Worries over being named “pyramid scheme” Feb 04, 2013
  • Was the AIG Rescue Legal? http://t.co/LUTVHQa9 Of course not. Gov’t should not play favorites; emergencies b a DIP lender of last resort Feb 02, 2013

 

US Politics & Policy

 

  • House Speaker: Washington Has to Address Spending http://t.co/lZcQcinD Yes it does, but will the Senate and President ratify that? $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Party Eyes ‘Red-State Model’ to Drive Republican Revival http://t.co/qrlp6Zn5 First balance budget on an accrual basis; no state does $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • House Leaders Weigh US Spending Bill Below $1T http://t.co/0nBcoURd Good luck w/Senate & President on that, you will need it $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Study Says States Lose Billions in Offshore Tax Avoidance http://t.co/qTnlUpTX Just an effect of federal tax policy, which needs change $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • The Fed?s Worst Fear http://t.co/nanNt52c Losing control of long interest rates; the bond market will eventually trump the Fed $$ Feb 04, 2013

 

Market Impact

?

  • Americans Are Tapping Into Home Equity Again http://t.co/gLLrlDEx Does this mean a return to the reckless equity withdrawals? Likely not $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Banks Should Defer Bonuses for Up to 10 Years, Jenkins Says http://t.co/udabGhNT Better that banks become partnerships; creates caution Feb 08, 2013
  • Insiders now aggressively bearish http://t.co/vWogX2LF Last Fri: sell-to-buy ratio for NYSE-listed shares listed stood at 9.20-to-1 $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • SP500 Complacent Divergence – Risk Factors http://t.co/CPqaNYY4 Decelerating earnings growth threatens valuations. Econ surprises falling 2 Feb 08, 2013
  • Interdealer Brokers Emerge as Key Enablers in Libor Scandal http://t.co/bTgMtUOa & http://t.co/yBo7oxKJ Them & Rain Man Tom Hayes $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Schwab Unveils Game-Changing Commission-Free ETF Platform http://t.co/yqCaunnJ Part of the ETF’s fees go to $SCHW . No free lunch here $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • H-P Aside, Corporate Splits Are Wholly Worth Investors? While http://t.co/e9dptR0E Managements gain new focus; Behemoths lack true mgmt $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • U.S. to Offer Floating-Rate Notes Within a Year http://t.co/eXCUd3Ni Money-market funds take heart; yield (w/spread duration risk!) $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Small lenders ride US mortgage wave as big banks cut back http://t.co/KbACkvJk Interesting 2c little independent mortgage brokers return $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • America’s Baby Bust http://t.co/CaWPjZVU Heard on Radio C-SPAN yd http://t.co/Ow86Jsfs ?Economies don’t work well when popul shrinks $$ Feb 02, 2013

?

Rest of the World

?

  • Mind the Liquidity Gap – Credit Gap http://t.co/m2xTMEIs 3 factors: global monetary policy, global credit supply & global credit demand $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • German Hope French Despair and EU Rescue: PMIs http://t.co/qioLvblN Eurozone PMIs r rising, but economies r still contracting $$ #France Feb 07, 2013
  • Basel Seen Rotten in Denmark as Banks Bypassed http://t.co/HX9a6vOI Denmark has many covered mtge bonds; Basel doesn’t care much 4them $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Shades of ’80s for Japan’s Stocks http://t.co/68rhfLmX What, Japanese stocks can go up after the demographic dividend has faded? Feb 07, 2013
  • Desperate Greeks scuffle at free food handout http://t.co/XpQUEBMM Total desperation. Democracy started there, and it may end there too $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Canadians back2borrowing: avg consumer debt hits new hi http://t.co/wtSpy1pB overall debt low | cred: evergreen http://t.co/ndpBH0Ch Feb 07, 2013
  • Last tweet derives from this article http://t.co/wjSwNztf I believe in freedom, and small biz capitalism, with equality 4 all. $$ Feb 06, 2013
  • We need Obama/Hollande 2create economic barriers average people can’t surmount, so the clever rich can get richer. Cynical, but true $$ Feb 06, 2013
  • ECB Executive Board Member Asmussen: ‘German Interest Rates Will Rise Again’ http://t.co/oIJZtFtK Thinks *real* interest rates will rise $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Top Iranians Trade Barbs in Rare Public Feud http://t.co/W1uR6M1p Corruption is endemic to Iran; rare 4 the mafiosi 2 fink on each other Feb 05, 2013

 

Other

 

  • An Insider’s Guide to Counterfeiting Wine – Businessweek http://t.co/SoVp0OrF 3 ways to counterfeit expensive wines & how to avoid them $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Most Australian Wine Exports Ship in Giant Plastic Bladders http://t.co/jL1S9KLF ?We don?t ship glass around the world, we ship wine.? $$ Feb 09, 2013
  • Super Bowl Blackout Caused by Faulty Relay, Entergy Says http://t.co/GKd5619I That was what I guessed; weak spot in many power grids $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Asteroid to Traverse Earth?s Satellite Zone, NASA Says http://t.co/ZnpmCxXD Interesting we only get one week’s notice on the near miss $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • What Abraham Lincoln Liked About Richard III http://t.co/oAp8PQjg Lincoln was Shakespeare buff; 1 controversial man’s thoughts on another Feb 08, 2013
  • Lease Surprise in Stuyvesant Town http://t.co/O7DQsILq “clause that allows landlord to increase the rent in the middle of the lease” $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • Nine Questions for Peter Levine, Andreessen Horowitz?s Enterprise Dude http://t.co/yiubWsqj How SDN commoditizes much special hardware $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • On Pins and Needles: Stylist Turns Ancient Hairdo Debate on Its Head http://t.co/RgrZqc80 Kinda of a quirky story, but interesting $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • ‘They Owe It to Me’: FBI Identifies Top Email Phrases Used by Fraudsters – Compliance Week http://t.co/9FtlTkEH Set up filters, compliance Feb 06, 2013
  • Legacy of Benjamin Graham: http://t.co/GztBNt53 via @youtube In last minute, BG anticipates the Efficient Markets Hypothesis years ahead $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Legacy of Benjamin Graham: http://t.co/GztBNt53 via @youtube Fascinating video w/Buffett, Kahn (2), Schloss, & other students of his $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • US Construction Jobs – A very Constructive Story http://t.co/Gqy8YIU0 Construction jobs coming back, looks like a dead cat bounce $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • Sending electronic money to friends catching on http://t.co/zRBh8tkT Creating next great avenue 4 money laundering; cheap & convenient $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • Hitler Awakes in 2011 Berlin, Becomes YouTube Hero http://t.co/ore3XtWB Hard 4 me 2 believe. Does humor have any limits anymore? Funny $$ Feb 04, 2013

?

Replies & Retweets

  • @dpinsen 16x deteriorating free cash flow @ $24/sh. There’s some bluster there. Wouldn’t want to be a bondholder here $DELL $$ Feb 08, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: Wait, I’m wrong. Didn’t look far enough — they have 8.5% of shares, but 7.5% of votes. Onl… http://t.co/18jIZ94S Feb 08, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: Here: http://t.co/a3SdyNFq http://t.co/4OBGCIp0 Feb 08, 2013
  • ‘ @ampressman Thanks, Aaron. Reading it now. http://t.co/aGpdRr8R Good stuff. SE recently bought more http://t.co/UGh12nkp $$ $DELL Feb 08, 2013 ?(This tweet was wrong, SE has been a seller of $DELL shares, and even recently?)
  • Owns 7.5%, what could they b thinking? $$ RT @BloombergNews: BREAKING: Dell holder Southeastern Asset plans ‘All Options’ to stop deal Feb 08, 2013
  • Worth the read RT @cate_long: Is the U.S. growing, or just issuing debt? – #MuniLand http://t.co/KLB1838k Feb 08, 2013
  • Seems reasonable to me $$ RT @TFMkts: @AlephBlog the high yield market is on cusp of some stop losses getting triggered Feb 08, 2013
  • @GaelicTorus Did not know that, thanks Feb 08, 2013
  • Small caps +7% http://t.co/ewRvffTb $$ RT @credittrader: Gentle Reminder Japan Nikkei 225 +0.75% YTD in USD http://t.co/cxxhjMoG Feb 07, 2013
  • @anatadmati Twitter is too small for this. Read: http://t.co/JDnLfhJ5 & http://t.co/yo7C05d0 Biggest problem isn’t capital, but liquidity $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • @Nonrelatedsense @credittrader Thanks, missed that Feb 07, 2013
  • @BlandDexter In a word, yes. Feb 07, 2013
  • @The_Analyst What floors me are professional investors that don’t read the prospectus the first time they analyze a new type of investment. Feb 07, 2013
  • @SapienQuis A lot of investment banks got pinned w/crud they could not sell whether due to secondary trading or origination Feb 07, 2013
  • @The_Analyst Yes, they did have staff. If u r a professional firm, you must independent vet out credit quality; ignore rating read writeup Feb 07, 2013
  • Well done! RT @jasonzweigwsj: 2 things about high-yield bonds investors should understand today, from @DavidSchawel http://t.co/EYo8KSEQ $$ Feb 07, 2013
  • @anatadmati A better idea would be double liability, where mgmt & directors lose their capital before shareholders do. Change incentives Feb 07, 2013
  • @anatadmati At current margins, banks could not earn their cost of capital w/30% E/A. Banks & credit would shrink a lot -> crisis Feb 07, 2013
  • @DavidSchawel Where will it be? Feb 06, 2013
  • Bondholders will get badly hurt $$ http://t.co/i7Fxa10p RT @DougKass: HPQ mulling a break up. $HPQ Feb 05, 2013
  • It’s starting $$ RT @LisaCNBC: The Japanese are going to overdo it and create an inflation problem. #Yen will spike in 2013. @PeterSchiff Feb 05, 2013
  • @TFMkts People made absurd predictions about capital mkts off of the experience 1982-2000, culmination ing tech bubble / lost decade $$ Feb 05, 2013
  • Mersenne Primes RT @motokorich: Largest Prime Number Discovered, and it’s 17,425,170 digits long. http://t.co/U8GzYFj1 via @sciam Feb 05, 2013
  • @TFMkts Would be interesting 2c a firm try that. The wind seems to still b blowing the wrong way there, w/discount rates so low. Feb 05, 2013
  • He was/is a bright guy $$ RT @munilass: Picking on S&P just isn’t as much fun without @EconOfContempt around. Feb 05, 2013
  • RT @LaurenLaCapra: “big exchanges therefore stand to gain tremendously from even a relatively small shift twd futures & away from sw … Feb 05, 2013
  • “I only want to add one thing: its not what pundits say that matters, it is what people rely on economically… http://t.co/zAPlxIHU $$ Feb 04, 2013
  • RT @moorehn: Pffft. MT @nycjim: Washington Post says it, too, was victim of hacking attack that appeared to originate in China. http://t … Feb 03, 2013
  • Good marketing kills bad ideas, people & products $$ RT @MattVATech: Marketing is never a substitute for substance. Feb 03, 2013
  • “Only if you think that by waiting a little while you might have higher yields to invest at. Can’t?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/Vt16DKeU $$ Feb 02, 2013
  • “Hi, KD… my bond mandate is unconstrained, so I just aim for total returns. Right now I am pretty?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/4x41D4D2 Feb 02, 2013

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FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 77 retweets received, 4 new listings, 86 new followers, 81 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Feb 07, 2013

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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Basel III

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  • Betrayed by Basel http://t.co/dzH7crDt Additional Liquidity & Capital will always lower the bank’s ROE; banks always protest over safety $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • International rules & regs r also easier to co-opt, b/c the normal political opponents r easier to shut out of the process $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • BaSell Illiquid Liquidity Rules (Under Basel 3) http://t.co/mIww29wC International acctg rules & regulations r easier 4 companies 2ignore $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Banks Win an Easing of Rules on Assets http://t.co/8eealPyW If u want stronger banks, their costs go up b/c liquidity reduces profits $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Rules for Lenders Relaxed http://t.co/HIaunjdU Basel III Regulators Cave 2 Banks;Ease Requirements for Meeting Guideline on Liquidity $$ Jan 07, 2013

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Rest of the World

 

  • Morocco Stalled Tourist Drive Traps Lenders http://t.co/pUdxfQUg Is there anyplace in the world that hasn’t overlent on real estate? $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • A Protest Unites Far-Flung Activists http://t.co/hGR0J8IQ China does not tolerate protests that seem to be coordinated $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • Google Chief Urges North Korea to Embrace Web http://t.co/XjXOBr4c Wait till they learn how poor they r compared 2 the rest of the world $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Gold Lures Japan?s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation http://t.co/ORqqGIuu Didn’t think Gold, Japan & inflation allowed in 1 sentence Jan 09, 2013
  • Japan to Buy European Debt With Currency Reserves to Weaken Yen http://t.co/qTW7RbqA Make a bunch of bad investments w/your monetary base $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • The Oslo Housing Bubble Syndrome http://t.co/UbXKjTvE Keep interest rates low to protect your exporters, and so inflate a housing bubble $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Pakistan Loving Fatburger as Fast Food Boom Ignores US Drones http://t.co/TlNm0DGc Something endearing about Pakistanis eating burgers $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Inconvenient Truths About Al Jazeera http://t.co/F8JdS1Co Perhaps it should be renamed “The Wahhabi Islam Ministry of Propaganda” $$ Jan 07, 2013
  • Record India Deficit May Limit Rate Cuts as Rupee Drops http://t.co/B9e24zwt India badly-run compared2 other EM Countries; feeling stress Jan 05, 2013
  • Ch?vez’s Appointed Heir Prepares 4 Battle http://t.co/JEvNVwJa Maduro Faces Factional Infighting Amid Campaign 2Win Venezuelan’s Hearts Jan 05, 2013

Fixed Income

 

  • Fitch Places Illinois GO Bonds on Negative Watch, Says Large Unfunded Pension Liabilities Unsustainable http://t.co/73qh5vg8 No Surprise $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • Is High Yield Overvalued? http://t.co/8ATkkF8B The high-yield category has increased risks and low absolute yields $$ High yield nulla est Jan 10, 2013
  • Fed Governor Tarullo pressing 4 banks 2fund themselves w/more long-term debt. http://t.co/vCT1tyy1 Good idea, I may have misjudged him $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Banks to Boost Liquidity With Illiquid Assets http://t.co/CzObiq31 Chart of the Day http://t.co/wD6VJRLi BBB bonds illiquid in crises $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Junk Bonds’ Fire Is Poised to Fade http://t.co/zSLNRXX3 Avg yields dropped below 6% 4the 1st time ever; Avg prices highest since 2004 $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Jack Lew


?? 10 Things You Need 2 Know About Jack Lew, Obama’s Next Treasury Secretary http://t.co/5kaGstrc Interesting summary of an influential guy $$ Jan 10, 2013

  • Is Jack Lew A Friend to Wall Street? http://t.co/SoK6kyw1 Like Tim Geithner, the new Treasury nominee may owe his views to Robert Rubin. $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Trading 1 type of cronyism 4another http://t.co/vCT1tyy1 & http://t.co/gx4cTK4U Lose Fed crony [Geithner], get political crony [Lew] $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Obama to Nominate Lew as Treasury Secretary http://t.co/D6rAids5 Strategy: nominate a lot of controverial ppl & wear down the Senate $$ Jan 09, 2013

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Debt Ceilings, Platinum Coins, Etc.

 

  • This impresses me as 6 of one, a half dozen of the other. Both try to make something out of nothing. http://t.co/5afNZxY9 Jan 10, 2013
  • Platinum-Coin Punditry Poses Threat to Dollar http://t.co/0pyjh2x3 Takes my view that it will decrease demand in the Treasury market $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Only Thing Wrong With the Debt Ceiling Is the Lag http://t.co/L7LFyqeD First Congress decides on how much 2 borrow, then sets budget $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • Why we won?t mint a platinum coin http://t.co/xbDdI5IA The reaction of foreign $$ obligation holders would be swift & negative #rsvcurrency Jan 08, 2013
  • Rebranding the ?trillion-dollar coin? http://t.co/YoqGgFWQ You can’t get something for nothing; this will makes foreigners distrust the $$ Jan 05, 2013

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Economic Policy

 

  • Fed?s Plosser Says Stimulus May Backfire, Fuel Inflation http://t.co/qtp04uVT “?stimulus? may not help speed up the process…may prolong” Jan 12, 2013
  • James Buchanan, a Star Economist Who Understood Obamacare http://t.co/qn34aQPO Bureaucrats have a natural interest in seeing gov’t grow $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Economist Who Argued Public Officials R Ruled by Self-Interest Dies http://t.co/fx8ss0r7 James Buchanan founder of Public Choice Theory Jan 10, 2013
  • Button-Down Central Bank Bets It All http://t.co/Udzx5QCF What does it mean when central banks downgrade asset quality? Very trendy $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • US Consumers Obligation to spend http://t.co/stw01ER3 America’s Cars and Appliances Are Getting Old, may presage demand 4 durable goods $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Why Austerity Works and Fiscal Stimulus Doesn’t http://t.co/nJhXmjFK Austerity exalts free actions of humans; stimulus exalts bureaucrats Jan 08, 2013
  • The Education of John Boehner http://t.co/OgUWkXUw Leverage 4the next clash: GOP willingness 2let the spending sequester take effect $$ Jan 07, 2013
  • Ending the Era of Ponzi Finance http://t.co/oaPG7s8h 24 pgs PDF | John Mauldin has Daniel Stelter describe what’s unsustainable in policy $$ Jan 05, 2013

 

Companies

 

  • Mohawk Chief Lorberbaum Emerges as Billionaire With Tiles http://t.co/lQeR5B45 $MHK CEO owns 14% of the company; he’s a clever acquirer $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • What?s at the Center of the Debate Over Herbalife http://t.co/B4GV7Fi5 Ackman is hoping the FTC will declare $HLF 2b a pyramid scheme $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • News Corp. Tabloid Swaps Sex for Cats Among Brands Buffing Image http://t.co/4wILocCG No one is immune from aiming 4 irrelevance $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Buffett Railroad Sees Crude Cargo Climbing 40% http://t.co/JmbE7HmT Makes up for a loss of revenue in hauling coal $$ FD: + $BRK.B Jan 08, 2013
  • Secret Goldman Team Sidesteps Volcker After Blankfein Vow http://t.co/mTCwjoZ8 Wagers ~$1B $GS own funds on unaffiliated stocks/bonds $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Bill Ackman Says Just Getting Started Exposing Herbalife http://t.co/Cp40Zuqu Most of my summary acctg test #s look okay on $HLF. ?? $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Housing? Finance

 

  • The latest foreclosure horror: the zombie title http://t.co/b7hkmKDX Long article about people stuck w/homes b/c banks won’t foreclose $$ Jan 12, 2013
  • Rules Set for Home Lenders http://t.co/jg7QqiwQ Rules seem overly lenient; has the CFPB been co-opted already? That was fast $$ Jan 10, 2013

 

Market Impact

 

  • Hedge Funds Squeezed With Shorts Beating S&P 500 http://t.co/55EpCxpb Positive momentum has led many shorts to cover, performance drags $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Finra to Shine Light on Dark Pool Trading http://t.co/Nt9OjmIb Does FINRA have the talent to analyze this? That would surprise me. $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • In Search of Family Ties http://t.co/g5SGaY1Z Families w/control can b valuable if they r interested in growth & not milking da biz $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • What’s Hot?And What’s Not (in mutual funds) http://t.co/W3blerlL Hot: Low Vol, Local $$ EM bonds, Active Bond ETFs Not: Vol ETPs, 130/30 Jan 07, 2013
  • Above the Market?s Leading Investment Indicators http://t.co/j54Dl3vu Long-term val’n measures like Q-ratio, CAPE10, Total Cap/GDP, etc $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Other

 

  • Well done, Henry. I write this as one who enjoys BI, though I was won over bit-by-bit. Keep up the good work. http://t.co/cWecMkPh Jan 10, 2013
  • Check These Out at the Library: Blacksmithing, Bowling, Butchering http://t.co/teaqR76s Who knew Libraries would try 2b so relevant? $$ Jan 08, 2013
  • Excellent Police http://t.co/qKpoliWR What the Baltimore P.D. can teach your office about multitasking and incentives. $$ #whoknew Jan 07, 2013
  • East St. Louis Cops Outgunned as Cuts Let Killers Thrive http://t.co/zHGmesXX Cut the Federal budget; don’t cut the local budget $$ Jan 06, 2013
  • Keystone Pipeline Clears a Big Hurdle in Nebraska http://t.co/Y1WqqCiE Local review says small impact on the environment at most $$ Jan 05, 2013

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong: Buffett Says Banks Cleared of Excess Risk Pose No Threat to US http://t.co/KWtOOcxo Excessive reliance on Fed funding $$ Jan 10, 2013
  • Wrong: Why we need a currency war with China (and Denmark and Singapore ? ) http://t.co/b8XqDqfa You may as well say “Smoot-Hawley” $$ Jan 07, 2013

 

Replies & Retweets

  • RT @cate_long: While savers forgo ~$200B in interest payments “@nytimesbusiness: Fed transferred $88.9 billion to Treasury in 2012 http: … Jan 10, 2013
  • @NickTimiraos Steep yield curve helps too, though it isn’t *that* steep thanks 2 QE-infinity Jan 10, 2013
  • @Kathleen_Hays Not necessarily. My friend Caroline Baum shared this article w/me: Is Jack Lew A Friend to Wall Street? http://t.co/SoK6kyw1 Jan 10, 2013
  • RT @ajkurki: @AlephBlog Absolute yields below 1st percentile of all observed observations since mid-90s (BofAML data). What could go wrong?! Jan 10, 2013
  • @cabaum1 Dear Caroline, thank you for replacing my bias w/a good article. Rubin’s influence is significant; didn’t know Lew was part of it Jan 10, 2013
  • @CharlesSizemore That it did. Jan 10, 2013
  • @CharlesSizemore I’m sorry, Charles. In my busyness, I didn’t catch that, and I should have. Apologies. Jan 10, 2013
  • Not a chance $$ RT @CharlesSizemore: Is Sears the Next Berkshire Hathaway? http://t.co/NNro3uuu $SHLD $BRK-A $BRK-B $WMT $HD #WarrenBuffett Jan 10, 2013
  • @EddyElfenbein Just a general mindset, but the penny stock promoters irritate me to the max. Jan 10, 2013
  • Investment banks r bull market babies $$ RT @ReformedBroker: Morgan Stanley still searching for a reason to exist $MS http://t.co/Zux43Z7C Jan 10, 2013
  • @howardlindzon @researchpuzzler Happy new year to both of you as well. May you have joys and constructive challenges. Jan 10, 2013
  • @howardlindzon @researchpuzzler Have fun reading tonight’s Aleph Blog piece then 😉 $$ (Not published yet) Jan 10, 2013
  • Eisenstadt discovers momo RT @researchpuzzler: “Go to it then.” Arnold Bernhard, in 1959, sounding like @howardlindzon http://t.co/jyCz1Fhi Jan 10, 2013
  • @Kelly_Evans It’s okay… given all that you do, an occasional blip is fine. I make lots of mistakes…. Jan 09, 2013
  • @Fullcarry I *don’t* think it will be an equilibrium. Besides, equilibria are rare in economies, they are ultracommon in journals though Jan 09, 2013
  • @Kelly_Evans Perhaps you mean inversely? Jan 09, 2013
  • @Fullcarry My problem is that most of the major central banks r doing this, not just Japan. What happens when all CBs have corrupt $$ bases? Jan 09, 2013
  • @moorehn @katierogers There were more revenues behind the Bowie bonds than the worth of the platinum in a coin. $$ Jan 09, 2013
  • @macrotourist Thanks, did not have time to listen to the webcast, but the slides are interesting. Jan 08, 2013
  • @LaurenLaCapra you’re right, wasn’t thinking — tweet deleted Jan 08, 2013
  • You can say that again. $$ RT @profithuntergrp: @AlephBlog agreed Iceland proved it early on – do the hard thing! Jan 08, 2013
  • Something looks wrong w/slide 3 — the bar lengths don’t compare with the numbers next to them. $$ http://t.co/kECnkBA0 Jan 08, 2013
  • Shouldn’t black holes be stable? They exist because all mas in a given area collapses under its gravity… http://t.co/4xJVsykF Jan 08, 2013
  • @JacobWolinsky It is more accurate, so I made the change… Jan 07, 2013
  • @munilass Do you have any opinion on BAM? I’m a little skeptical because credit risks r more correlated than life, P&C, etc. Jan 07, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “Lou Simpson’s top stock picks – MarketWatch” http://t.co/uTBPy1QW Jan 07, 2013
  • @JacobWolinsky That’s a fair point. I’ll delete the last tweet, & send out a better one. Jan 07, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “Lou Simpson’s top stock picks – MarketWatch” http://t.co/nC1KnTr2 Jan 07, 2013
  • RT @ModeledBehavior: A trillion dollar coin really feels like the U.S. jumping the shark. We’ve been on for too many seasons, the plots … Jan 05, 2013

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FWIW

  • My week on twitter: 63 retweets received, 2 new listings, 50 new followers, 56 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Jan 10, 2013

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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Who to Follow

 

  • #FF @researchpuzzler @newrulesinvest @felixsalmon @interfluidity @Alea_ I go through my follow list twice/yr & highlight those I respect $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • #FF @EddyElfenbein @ReformedBroker @smallcapanalyst @BarbarianCap @abnormalreturns @TheStalwart @The_Analyst @mickwe @marketfolly @bondscoop Dec 15, 2012

 

Stupid political things I have said

 

  • @jpgriffard When I say great, I mean “large.” I hate them both. Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde Me too, thanks 4 interacting w/me Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde Wrong time of year, and Congress is tied up with the budget, so I guess no. NYC mayor provoked me, demanding immediate action Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @JoshForde Yes. Unintended consequences. 9-11 and the wars it engendered r my leading exhibits there. The US messed up badly. Dec 15, 2012
  • @Borderscrossed No they don’t, have a good night. Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde That I can agree with as well, w/rights come responsibilities, bigtime. Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde Second-order effects; our policy usually omits those. Example: the Fed & Central Bank freedom; what if they act irresponsibly? Dec 15, 2012
  • @trmcloughlin I would agree with that also Dec 15, 2012
  • @incakolanews I would agree w/that Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde Okay, but I’ve said that before on other topics… this has been a general position of mine on a wide # of issues, not just guns Dec 15, 2012
  • Auughh! Blam! Drones r another ethical issue that I hate $$ RT @Borderscrossed: @AlephBlog NSA has logged our tweets. Drones on the way. Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @jpgriffard He has two great achievements PPACA & Dodd-Frank Dec 15, 2012
  • @Borderscrossed Wait, you said “Obama” & “do something” in the same tweet. Isn’t that illegal? 😉 Dec 15, 2012
  • @JoshForde I’m willing to consider… what was insensitive? Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @ross_marketment I agree, freedom requires some laws, and here’s one to consider… liability for not securing your gun. Dec 15, 2012
  • Behind every economic view there is a political view. Unavoidable. All I know is that I get more grief from writing on politics. $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • @laGiocondaVinci That’s fine hope u do well Dec 15, 2012
  • My politics r complex; I am mostly a libertarian: I was against Iraq 1 & 2, Afghanistan. I did not like Bush 43, don’t like Obama either $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • RT @dpinsen: @AlephBlog The same people who now regret the TSA, the PATRIOT Act, etc. rushed through after 9/11 want to rush through mor … Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @Borderscrossed I am just saying 4 all legislation consider the second order effects; never act in heated emotion, consider all effects $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @ross_marketment Again, 9/11 is my best example. It has harmed Americans more than our enemies. I have been against all our recent wars $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • @streetbrief Take care Dec 15, 2012
  • @ross_marketment Not sure. I am saying is consider wide range of effects from policy change; we do not typically do that & we get bad policy Dec 15, 2012
  • I’m willing 2c intelligent limits on firearms & some degree of liability 4 those that don’t secure them, but rushed policy is bad policy $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • @ross_marketment Problem: there may be fewer murders, but in the UK they have more “hot robberies” than we do; robbers have more 2fear in US Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @trmcloughlin What we don’t know is how many lives have been saved by firearms. We don’t hear the sound of one hand clapping. #2ndorder Dec 15, 2012
  • No doubt; I have 8 kids; 5 adopted – I feel sorry 4 the parents; grief RT @ross_marketment: and for the minority as well. 26 today Dec 15, 2012
  • And we get salvation through a plethora of ineffective statutes RT @JamesMarsh79: our society demands intervention $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • ‘ @ross_marketment I don’t own a gun, probably nevr will. I serve the Prince of Peace. I know that a few people ruin freedom 4 the majority Dec 15, 2012
  • So after a really ugly event like the killing of 6-7 year olds, we need to mourn, leave policy decisions 4 a calmer time, weighing +s/-s $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • 2 many people react 2 an ugly event saying, “This must never, Never, NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN!!” w/o considering what 2nd order effects will b $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • After 9/11, we made many policy decisions in haste that left us less free. Part of being a free culture –> we must accept some disasters $$ Dec 15, 2012

 

Wrong

 

  • Wrong: Former HP CEO Shifts Blame for Autonomy Deal to Chairman http://t.co/p8xH0BoR No deal can get done w/o sponsorship of the CEO $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: As Dollar Loses Reserve Status Central Banks Diversify http://t.co/lfq2UGNW Bad as the $$ is, no other currency is as investable $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: Canadian Exceptionalism in Compensation http://t.co/Q6VDqm5P France is no exemplar in paying bureaucrats a lot of $$ a % of GDP Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: Our Hero, Ben Bernanke: Why Central Bankers (Not Politicians) Are Saving the Global Economy http://t.co/BawbK79N First do no harm $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: Mozilo Unbowed Says Countrywide Was ?World-Class Company? http://t.co/6pzQQyos Big, yes, but horrible underwriting, 2much debt $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Wrong: Bernanke Wields New Tools to Reduce Unemployment Rate http://t.co/M3GXZomh No new tools, only wishful thinking $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Wrong: Oil at $60 or $120 Doesn?t Prevent US Supplanting Saudi Arabia http://t.co/sWB1CqEa Decay curve 4 fracking means short advantage $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Wrong: Krugman, Krauthammer and Their Implied Authors http://t.co/seOKbPdg U r what u write; Just another aspect of your personality $$ Dec 11, 2012

 

Companies

 

  • And with that, I sign off Twitter 4 the evening (aside from robotic posts). One note b4 I go, $HPQ has not filed its 10-K @ its due date. $$ Dec 15, 2012
  • Apple Falls as UBS Projects Growth Slowdown http://t.co/f7Gi1Wwm Size is an enemy of growth. Channel check indicates slowdown 4 $AAPL $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Hurd was an accounting manipulator; he boosted asset accrual items to paper over flagging profitability. $$ http://t.co/ubjkmR9C $HPQ Dec 14, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Alberta-Quebec Oil Pipeline Reversal Study Done by June http://t.co/CkqBZul2 Let Quebec find its own oil then $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Refiner Phillips 66 would support U.S. crude oil exports-CEO http://t.co/lvKXNlcg More important: infrastructure 4 LNG exports FD: + $PSX Dec 14, 2012
  • Tokyo Steel Shifts Output as Power Costs Rise Post-Fukushima http://t.co/jYPrhUDA There r real costs to doing w/o nuclear power $$ Dec 14, 2012

 

Federal Reserve & Central Banks

 

  • We would b better off in the long run if the central banks of the world stopped QE & low rates & let us work out bad debts 4 a decade $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Houston We Have a Problem – The Abe Approach http://t.co/V9XlZ7pw Fed adopts an approach similar 2 the proposals of Shinzo Abe $$ #FTL Dec 13, 2012
  • Inside the Risky Bets of Central Banks http://t.co/rKRwTgb9 They talk together, but the central bankers of the world share ignorance $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Biggest Opportunity Will Be Shorting the Bond Market: Dalio http://t.co/GdGIGNkQ Shorting bonds is tough b/c of negative carry $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • RAY DALIO: The US Economy Is Facing A Rare Set Of Circumstances That Will Be Bad For Markets http://t.co/7lgVsmRR Bull mkt 4 cash & gold $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • BoE’s King warns of growing currency competition http://t.co/zTsohWHT “Beggar thy neighbor” characterizes Central Bank policies globally $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • “Economists at the BIS, meanwhile, have grown more skeptical about the central bank tilt.” http://t.co/Fje7WTFI All lean the same way $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • “There is a lot we don’t understand,” said Donald Kohn, the Fed’s former vice chairman. http://t.co/Fje7WTFI You can say that again $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Most interesting move of the day was watching long Tsy bonds sell off after Fed said it would buy more http://t.co/wk4ZFhAR “Et tu, QE?” $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • PS: long a little bit of $TLT 4 me & bond clients, short a little bit of $SPY for hedged clients Dec 12, 2012
  • Love the DJ reporter asking about Fed forecast accuracy. The answer is they missed financial crisis, & have been shocked by slow recovery $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Love those reporters who assume monetary policy can do anything, & that monetary policy can change unemployment w/a snap of the fingers $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Change since September in Central tendency of Fed funds Fed forecasts 2013-2015 & longer run: 0.01%, -0.20%, -0.32%, -0.15% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Change since September in Central tendency of PCE inflation Fed forecasts 2013-2015: -0.08% -0.08% -0.05% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Change since September in Central tendency of Unemployment Fed forecasts 2013-2015: -0.27% -0.18% -0.05% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Long Treasuries not liking the Fed Statement, even w/the promise of additional buying FD: long $TLT Dec 12, 2012
  • Change in Central tendency of GDP Fed forecasts since September 2013-2015: -0.07%, -0.16%, 0.08% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Steve Liesman actually asks a decent question, wow. Dec 12, 2012
  • Here’s one year forward, one year inflation implied from TIPS over the last 40 days: http://t.co/dmzjrO9W moving up, currently @ 2.01% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Using TIPS, the figure for inflation between one and two years ahead is already 2.01%. Fed did not do its homework, again. $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Fed Seen Pumping Up Assets to $4 Trillion in New Buying http://t.co/YkZo23sl Doing same thing over & over & expecting different result $$ Dec 11, 2012

 

US Politics

 

  • How to Keep All of Huck Finn in the Classroom http://t.co/rPo5syl2 We need 2 eliminate the pseudo-intellectual “common core” standards $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Dispatches from the public pension wars: http://t.co/rvD9zmAU & http://t.co/oWgfJYGQ & http://t.co/EYvaGTJ2 End pension spiking $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • It really seems stupid to spend $151B to upgrade Acela when it only has revenue of $0.5B/year http://t.co/SNbmuXJW Slow trains r better $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • Whose job is it to stop an asteroid from hitting the Earth? http://t.co/dNFyVjJR Would need at least 2 years of lead time, preferably 5 $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Big Banks Flunk OCC Risk Tests http://t.co/2f1veBS8 2big2b effectively regulated; left hand doesn’t know what right does, centipede-level $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Pimco?s Gross Says Fed Policy Means ?Free? Debt for Treasury http://t.co/d7K7wHm1 Ah, seigniorage; it is good 2b king Dec 13, 2012
  • Amtrak Plans to Replace All High-Speed Acela Trains http://t.co/SNbmuXJW I like the Acela, but I can’t see how 2 recoup $151B 4 new trains Dec 13, 2012

 

Rest of the World

 

  • Islam in Egypt’s new constitution http://t.co/0oqRk11B Kind of interesting; gives u a feel 4 different types of Islamic casuistry $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Assad Losing Syria, Say Russia and NATO http://t.co/rNeKVmhS Could Chavez & Assad lose their power in the same week? $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • EU Reaches Deal on Bank Supervisor http://t.co/YNFGjnjk A lot of the details have 2b worked out; will b interesting 2c it in action $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • China’s Economy – weaker than we think http://t.co/FwbPNviK The math is pretty clear: rebalancing will inevitably require lower growth. $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • What Mario Monti?s Exit Tells Us About Europe?s Debt Crisis http://t.co/Ak8zB6N4 Problems r cultural; politics can’t bring prosperity $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • ?Reckless, Wrong-Headed? Pension Rules Could Savage Europe?s Economy http://t.co/OP7xDSGM Key Q: how large is the equity prem over Tsys? $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • US Schoolchildren Lag Asian Peers on Academic Tests http://t.co/PEJufbTb Phonics & going back to the “old math” would help considerably $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Argentine mom rescues hundreds of sex slaves http://t.co/9dz9sZw9 In rescuing her kidnapped daughter, gains a quest & rescues hundreds $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Germany displaces China as US Treasury’s currency villain http://t.co/7giRsoJE Germany > China; biggest source of global trade imbalance $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • BIS: Policy measures and reduced short-term risks buoyed markets http://t.co/M4k5j2Oq True now, but will make eventual tightening harder $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Honey Laundering http://t.co/x2Dl5sdr No way India is now producing so much honey. Imports from China, escapes duties, exports 2 US $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Hitler Has a Following in India http://t.co/Mksfyv6R India dislikes the British enough, & desires a strong leader to save them, & thus $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Sony Loses Science Talent as Student Resumes Go to Dairies http://t.co/dKJsVDIN Can’t obsolete food; shows caution among Japanese youth $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Carson Block Goes Short Unafraid as Chinese Gangsters Chase http://t.co/QVRFxy1i Trying 2 hide information does not change negative FCF $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • China November factory output jumps to eight-month high http://t.co/Y0HNSoqp And consumer inflation bounced off 33-month lows $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Chinese Group Buys 80% of AIG Plane Unit for $4.2B http://t.co/7YLMn3ro Good 2c $AIG simplify. I suspect the seller is the winner here $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Raging Oil Price Will Burn OPEC http://t.co/xRnGN9Pa Suggests downward pressure on oil prices. Sell high-cost E&P, maybe $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Slowing China Forex Reserves May Spell Trouble http://t.co/Bcy9KnW9 Suggests gold and Singapore $$ off of weakness & capital flight in China Dec 10, 2012

 

Other

 

  • Those Diabolical Anonymous Commenters http://t.co/hl7tGZJ1 If we have to sign our names to what we write, we will b more judicious $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • The five most disruptive technologies of 2012 http://t.co/AbNJyUSF Pretty fascinating, particularly power storage & cheap internet $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Finally did it. Joined the cult of Warren the Wonderful http://t.co/8p67b2yl Now my clients & I can get a discount @ GEICO. FD: + $BRK.B $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • America’s Milk Business in a ‘Crisis’ http://t.co/ANb8xN6d Maybe if they got rid of the growth hormones, more people would want milk $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Bloomberg Weighs Making Bid for The Financial Times http://t.co/E2r3t7hw Creating a more powerful Bloomberg, LP piece-by-piece $$ #FTW Dec 11, 2012
  • Green energy will come into existence without subsidies when crude is $200/bbl $$ http://t.co/Ufz0Kig2 Dec 11, 2012
  • They Know What You’re Shopping For http://t.co/MuBloNPi Interesting. Shows how auto dealers get data on you $$ Get “do not track” $$ Dec 08, 2012

 

US Politics & Economics

  • When the CPI is up, journos point at the bogus “core” figure. When the CPI is down, journos point at the CPI. Bias http://t.co/ODXMyo1V $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • The Myth Of Cash On The Sidelines Remains A Myth http://t.co/c6UKgvxV Also have 2 count the cash that collateralizes derivative positions $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Mortgage Rates in the US Drop to Near-Record Lows http://t.co/ciJ8b4rd Attractive credit, if u can get it; hey, rhymes and scans $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • If u r a professional bond investor, researcher would like you 2 take survey on Investor Preferences for Climate Bonds http://t.co/NP4X0iPV Dec 13, 2012
  • Beef in America is plentiful & affordable, spun out in enormous quantities @ high speeds: bonanza w/hidden dangers. http://t.co/ZhYQcleo $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • States Faulted Over Teacher Pension Shortfall http://t.co/bMnCE92x (non) Payback coming to teachers 4 negotiating 2 high pension bfts $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • How Republicans engineered a blow to Michigan’s powerful unions http://t.co/pll6Uo1r Hidden in plain sight; careful planning achieved it $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • For-Sale Signs Sprout in Heartland http://t.co/Fs7sB8b4 Likely sustainable as there are low levels of debt used to effect buys $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • I care more for how a man weighs ideas & opinions than what he weighs. http://t.co/9Cf51G9e Dec 12, 2012
  • “Ferri’s reasoning only looks easy in hindsight. I agree with Barry’s reasoning, though. Consistent w/Q-ratio, etc. $$ http://t.co/I8MPtJlh Dec 12, 2012
  • Before the public pension crisis ends, some states will remove pension protections in their constitutions, & retroactively cut benefits $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • $822,000 Worker Shows California Leads U.S. Pay Giveaway http://t.co/YfcZsCWU People r finally getting how big this problem is $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • Social Security ? 2012 Results http://t.co/GgxzcD4q Social Security & Medicare get worse and worse; US Govt will not b able 2 afford them $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • Hawaii Real Estate Paradise Returns With Goldman Loan http://t.co/eMAJl5IM Japanese & Korean travelers driving hotel visits $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • LOOMING CRISIS: State Budgets Soon to be Under Siege http://t.co/IwGIK90g Cash payments r curving up rapidly 4 public employee benefits $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Don’t forget the unforced give up of stricter bailout terms, made when $$ was impossible to get; $AIG deal… http://t.co/G9zwHuDV Dec 11, 2012
  • Please ignore special tax benefits given $AIG & unforced renegotiation of original deal. A loss in economic terms http://t.co/gShXtNIq $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • Better Gas Mileage, Thanks to the Pentagon http://t.co/rmVBspJ0 As w/the space program, rarely we get positive spillover from Defense $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • 13 Insights From Paul Tudor Jones http://t.co/BsAnkdgS He is not only a successful hedge fund manager but a very original & clear thinker $$ Dec 11, 2012
  • $GOOG Revenues Sheltered in No-Tax Bermuda Soar 2 $10B http://t.co/az2KrBhI Shock in Hamilton as NATO blockades, seizes shell companies $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Hostess Maneuver Deprived Pension http://t.co/tyvhsCF2 Multi-employer pension trusts r weak; PBGC coverage is < single-employer plans $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Climate Treaty Hinges on Obama Making Case: Ex-Aides http://t.co/zIA5j27p Obama doesn’t want 2 waste political capital on low odds win $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic US Expansion http://t.co/e0nDazST Economic Lethargy girdles the globe, everything slowing $$ Dec 09, 2012
  • SEC’s Aguilar Warms Up to Money-Fund Overhauls http://t.co/mkLQNYAX Will destroy MMFs & won’t significantly help systemic risk $$ Dec 08, 2012

 

Retweets

  • To the main point: High speed rail is a boondoggle. Slow will do. RT @finemrespice: @AlephBlog http://t.co/UKb2A9hO Dec 14, 2012
  • Not indice, index $$ RT @weigu: Shanghai Composite Index is the 2nd-worst performing stock indice in the world this year, just after Spain. Dec 13, 2012
  • RT @randy_cass: Hint #1 that we’ve gotten conditioned to stimulus. Journalist asked question and referenced ‘$45 Billion a month’ as ‘a … Dec 13, 2012
  • Inertia RT @AsifSuria: Why does Best Buy still pay a dividend? $BBY Dec 13, 2012
  • Here’s a graph of it for those who don’t know where 2c it: http://t.co/G2P4kknG RT @TheStalwart: @AlephBlog tanked right at 8 PM ET $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • RT @Convertbond: Scary US Percentage of High Yield Bonds Trading ABOVE next Call Price 2012 40% 2011 30% 2010 22% 2009 0% 2008 5% 2007 … Dec 12, 2012
  • You said it RT @credittrader: umm benny – look at 5y5y fwds! come on man…. Dec 12, 2012
  • He can’t mean that $$ RT @davidgaffen: “I don’t think any policymaker, including the Fed, should respond to markets.” -BB 12/12/12 Dec 12, 2012
  • RT @Kathleen_Hays: CBS news guy asks Bernanke how does tying rate change to 6.5% jobless help economy? Bernanke says better communicatio … Dec 12, 2012
  • RT @LaMonicaBuzz: Where’s Chuck Barris? The Bernanke press conference is approaching the hour-long mark. Time for someone to ring a big … Dec 12, 2012
  • Muted response from $GLD, $TLT down, $SPY up/down since stmt RT @jamessaft: it is not the reporters who scare me, it is the investors $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • I assume we r both “persona non grata” there RT @cabaum1: @AlephBlog Use my name. It’ll get you a seat in the very back. Dec 12, 2012
  • You made me laugh; I applied to be in the press, they didn’t take me RT @cabaum1: @AlephBlog Be nice. He’s playing Helen Thomas. $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • RT @WildestFacts: Only 70% of people will understand the following: 2 + 2 = Fish. 3 + 3 = Eight. 7 + 7 = Triangle. RT if you get it. Dec 12, 2012
  • RT @tracyalloway: So long European aversion? Yankee bonds of European issuers now trading at pre-debt crisis levels, BarCap says: http:/ … Dec 11, 2012
  • Can’t make this up $$ RT @Alea_:[ pictures ]Mayan apocalypse: Chinese farmer builds survival pods in case of a disaster http://t.co/zWWNTWdr Dec 11, 2012
  • RT @MKTWBurton: What if the stock market is rigged? @abnormalreturns @felixsalmon @alephblog @bclund @nastrading: http://t.co/mkaMbNBE … Dec 11, 2012
  • +1 RT @fmanjoo: The University of California’s new logo is just unbelievably bad http://t.co/SFMdC22j Dec 10, 2012
  • Faith too RT @Mctaguej: It’s the growing number of collectivists among us that most concerns me. American individualism is in steep decline Dec 08, 2012

 

Replies

  • @e_d_sanders But once they are set up, most of the costs are incurred already, even the externalized ones. Dec 14, 2012
  • ‘ @JonathanProber My advice to all investors is to be wary of asset accrual items that seem too big relative to assets & profits $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • @JonathanProber I grew up on life insurance acctg, which is probably the most complex acctg of any industry, except investment banking Dec 14, 2012
  • @bundesbank Die Buba ist jetzt auf Twitter. Feiern Sie mit! Holen Sie sich eine Currywurst, Sauerkraut und ein Bier! $$ 😉 Dec 14, 2012
  • @finemrespice Living near Baltimore, idea of turning it in2a toxic nuclear waste dump could b an improvement. Better 40 miles SW, though $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • @quartznews Queen: “At least we don’t have to worry about whether this gold exists. Pity about the colonies & Fort Knox…” Dec 14, 2012
  • @Pedant_Bot This *is* Twitter, u know. Often we use less than optimal words 4 space reasons. Or, r u referrring to a blog post of mine? $$ Dec 14, 2012
  • @ritholtz I’m agreeing w/u, Barry – there is less cash available 2b invested than most think, b/c much of it is encumbered Dec 14, 2012
  • @ReformedBroker Thanks, Josh. You have my respect; it’s tough to put out quality content w/frequency, variety & regularity Dec 13, 2012
  • @SimoneFoxman “At least we don’t have to worry about whether this gold exists. Pity about the colonies & Fort Knox…” Dec 13, 2012
  • @finemrespice Got me to laugh. Yeh, hedge funds r the financial equivalent 2 alchemists. Let them propose alternative math, c who buys it $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • @finemrespice Alas, but mathematics is a tough foe. Let alternative mathematics try to make $$ by outcompeting traditional math 😉 Dec 13, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Not much in today’s trading… why, is something happening in Asia? Dec 13, 2012
  • @LaurenYoung The saints will laugh, the sinners will cry http://t.co/5cwaOtbH Dec 13, 2012
  • ‘ @Healey_trades I think the market is adjusting to the idea of higher future inflation, the Fed will not be able to maintain its policy $$ Dec 13, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial I’ve never agreed with that — that would be why median CPI or trimmed mean CPI would be preferred Dec 12, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial And if you use chained CPI vs chained PCE, they are virtually the same over the last 10 years Dec 12, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial Over the last 10 years that would shave 0.2% off CPI inflation Dec 12, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial I understand that Fed uses PCE $ TIPS r CPI-based, but there are no objective forward measures for PCE Dec 12, 2012
  • @cate_long Here’s 1-yr forward, 1-yr inflation implied from TIPS over the last 40 days: http://t.co/dmzjrO9W moving up, currently @ 2.01% $$ Dec 12, 2012
  • @cate_long Here’s a graph for that: http://t.co/dmzjrO9W Dec 12, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Ready at the criticism turret! Dec 12, 2012
  • ‘ @Kevin_Holloway As the market has run, $$ has grown, approaching max cash limit; 1.2x BV $BRK.B is below; well-run, difficult to replicate Dec 12, 2012
  • @WildestFacts 70% sounds high, but the process is simple, flip one and paste over the other for a picture Dec 12, 2012
  • “4 of 6 companies graphed are housing related. $CLGX is not an insurer. Maybe you need to revise?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/vTGZv3i2 $$ Dec 10, 2012
  • Many thanks to my 6000th Twitter follower @syedasyraf4 . Wherever you are, I pray things go well for you. Dec 09, 2012
  • ‘ @muffiehbs05 @carney I guess you’re right, Muffie, much more than a fund http://t.co/78kXw5Rf A home 4 student & alumni moral decay $$ Dec 08, 2012
  • .@historysquared The slow corruption of the last set of strong balance sheets in the US. Leverage is being substituted for organic growth $$ Dec 08, 2012

FWIW

 

  • My week on twitter: 57 retweets received, 1 new listings, 54 new followers, 65 mentions. Via: http://t.co/SPrAWil0 Dec 13, 2012

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Insurance

 

  • Insurers Must Boost Reserves for Residential Mortgage Bonds http://t.co/z1Plcc9z Pretty trivial; change small, not worth making $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • The Randian and the Bailout http://t.co/45wGJSo2 Without a tax gift from the US Tsy, $AIG couldn’t pay off the bailout http://t.co/2O4k7vpA Oct 25, 2012
  • For that last tweet, full disclosure, long $AIZ for clients and me Oct 24, 2012
  • Assurant Reports 3rd Quarter 2012 Financial Results http://t.co/pTbHUunV Over 8.75 yrs $AIZ has shrunk its share count from 142M to 78M $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Weschler Rise From Grace Leads to Role Advising Buffett http://t.co/uUlYUPVK Interesting tale of a guy who can deal4 & value companies $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Goldman Sachs Creates a Dividend+Buybacks Measure, & 4 Insurer Stocks Shine http://t.co/myQ8Ga1e I own 2 of them 4 clients. Which 2? $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Central Banking

 

  • Here Comes the Dollar Wave Again http://t.co/5EO5Ejve Defend exports, import inflation, asset bubbles “Our currency, but your problem.” Oct 25, 2012
  • Approach risks ?distorting? decisions & ?it might be economically inefficient 2try2 push prices up so much,? Shiller http://t.co/Bs5GJPGX Oct 24, 2012
  • Redacted Version of the October 2012 FOMC Statement http://t.co/2jOMkLje Note: CPI inflation is at 2%, also inflation expectations rising $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • FOMC Statement: http://t.co/E2BOFdrr Oct 24, 2012
  • “We fail 2c the direct link, or even an indirect link, btw the size of the Fed’s balance sheet & the unemp rate” http://t.co/bM149U5Z $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Buffett: ‘”I get a little worried about continuously expanding” the Fed’s balance sheet, he said on CNBC.’ http://t.co/KWIVYBIS $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Traders Calling Singer?s Bluff on Intervention as Koruna Gains http://t.co/Y1ml4EZ4 Czech National Bank playing with fire, will burn $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Would mean that the external effect of loose monetary policy have been played out, & the next big move is coming (but from where)? $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Worst Carry Trades Show Central Banks at Stimulus Limit http://t.co/IDxi6uVq Interesting thought: if carrytraders can’t make money… $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Fiscal Cliff

 

  • Firms Hit Brakes Before Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/z1Plcc9z Tap brakes is more like it. Most think we won’t go over the cliff #gridlock $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • Aha! Here’s The REAL Reason Corporate Executives Are Freaking Out About The Fiscal Cliff http://t.co/oS8VZpsi Favors initiatives of Dems $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Other

 

  • How Supap Kirtsaeng?s Textbooks Idea Led to Supreme Court http://t.co/h1CDWk1q What rights exist to re-sell something that you bought? $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • The Plot to Destroy America’s Beer http://t.co/3ElPpvvx A tale of cost-cutting, quality reductions. Light beers ascendant. $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • Sandy Nears Jamaica, Forecasters Weigh New England Threat http://t.co/R1HNSDm8 High Incidence, Low Power 4 Tropical Storms in 2012 $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Calling All Germs http://t.co/BkfuReQq Cellphones Are Great for Sharing Photos?and Bacteria; Cleaning May Harm Screens $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Romney?s Air Force Comparison Misses U.S. Edge in Jets http://t.co/3lFkg4KL There r some situations where more lower tech jets would help Oct 24, 2012
  • Dean, Marathon Split-Offs on Tap http://t.co/m5OLbAuI Post-split $DF looks interesting, if boring. More room 2 focus $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Shale Glut Becomes $2 Diesel Using Gas-to-Liquids Plants http://t.co/sjUDsrVK This is the Holy Grail, because gasoline is tough2produce $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • The internal combustion engine is far from dead http://t.co/Ewa60lrw Most real improvements in energy efficiency deal w/fossil fuels $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Americans Buying Fewer New Cars in Lifetime http://t.co/viB6dIlU long-term probably not a good sign; autos drive a lot of the economy $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • The Myth of Affordable Energy – Interview with Ed Dolan http://t.co/8jWI1faC Energy efficiency is increasing. Full cost pricing desirable $$ Oct 20, 2012

 

Demographics

 

  • Russian Funds Band Together to Repel Government Cash Grab http://t.co/72KWo3Bg Gotta b careful on pension funds cuz govts like 2 raid them Oct 26, 2012
  • More Americans delaying retirement until their 80s http://t.co/dZM4Tmqm This is the way it should be. Retirement s/b 4-5 years at most Oct 25, 2012
  • Can Japan?s Elderly Become Its Growth Engine? http://t.co/eqhsu54i This seems like wishful thinking to me. Spending from savings <> wages $$ Oct 24, 2012

 

Financials

 

  • U.S. securities regulator questions need for new broker standard http://t.co/iNUVJKIp Extending fiduciary standards 2 brokers in question Oct 24, 2012
  • Forcing frequent failures http://t.co/OL6WSfOM @interfluidity hits a home run in dealing with bank failures, & how to regulate Oct 24, 2012
  • Low Rates Pummel Banks http://t.co/577Fsc1i Borrowers Benefit, but Industry Lending Profits Hit Lowest Level in Three Years $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Marsico: When Going Private Goes Wrong http://t.co/Vxyc40u7 June 2007 was the wrong time 2 LBO, then performance lags $$ My sympathies2them Oct 23, 2012
  • 3 key money topics Romney-Obama debates ignored http://t.co/7j79IQ4V Housing prices, Investor protections & Retirement Savings $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • The end of stock market crashes? http://t.co/VjIALNEm I’m sorry, but the conclusion is bogus. Even if its works, only some could escape $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Mortgage risks underestimated, economists conclude http://t.co/TFDpqz70 FHA uses a model that leads it to underestimate delinquency risk $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • Annaly Says Michael Farrell Dies After Cancer Diagnosed http://t.co/n5VNgi8m He was kind2me ~2000; willing2share ideas w/little me $$ $NLY Oct 22, 2012
  • Mortgage REITs: Not Just Yet http://t.co/20kPVBs2 I would be careful here & reduce exposure… they are always unstable vehicles $$ Oct 21, 2012
  • The Winner for Investors Is… http://t.co/eBQM5Ws4 @jasonzweigwsj points out the connection between returns & politics is tenuous $$ Oct 21, 2012

 

Economy

 

  • Firings Highest Since 2010 as Ford to Dow Face Slump http://t.co/9q87q63I This is the US economy. We can’t support workers relative2profit Oct 26, 2012
  • Weak Tea at Unilever Persists Amid Innovation at Rivals http://t.co/ryqjkEof Did not even know that Lipton was a Unilever brand $$ $UL $UN Oct 24, 2012
  • Doom Heralded at Hayman by Widening Trade Deficit: Japan Credit http://t.co/CZS09whs Japan?s debt is the ?cleanest dirty shirt.? Not. $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Hunger Stalks My Father?s India Long After Starvation End http://t.co/dkVTXxaO Long article, makes me grateful that I can feed my kids $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • Electrolux, Philips Warn Of US Slowdown http://t.co/6k5hxTe2 Another soggy data point; less demand 4 bigger-ticket consumer items $$ Oct 22, 2012

 

Retweets

 

  • Ya, true RT @glenntyrpa: @barnejek @AlephBlog @sikorskiradek Yea. When did Japan invade China? Was that 1930? 🙂 we Americans forget. Oct 26, 2012
  • RT @PragCapitalist: Today’s financial tip: don’t ever buy a boat. Instead, find a friend with a boat. If necessary, buy the friend. … Oct 24, 2012
  • Clever RT @BradErvin1: @AlephBlog @PragCapitalist This is Buffett, courtesy legacy @kevindepew articles @Minyanville http://t.co/dGTNG9kl $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • Stinks, just stinks RT @ritholtz: THE SELLSIDE: SAME AS IT EVER WAS Courthouse News Service http://t.co/K9LDmj5m via @CourthouseNews $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • RT @KathrynTully: The last of Sarah Thornton’s top reasons for quitting art market surely belongs in top 10 reasons not to be a journo. … Oct 24, 2012
  • RT @emckean: LOVE THIS RT @aniajakubek: There’s a Polish saying that means “Not my problem” & literally translates to “Not my circus … Oct 24, 2012
  • SIFMA gets an infamous big name to speak to them RT @LaurenLaCapra: #greenspan http://t.co/rjVlCfV5 Oct 23, 2012
  • At my house too RT @retheauditors: Halloween is dead to me. Oct 22, 2012

 

Replies

 

  • #FF @NickTimiraos @carney @grossdm @annsaphir @ritholtz @ToddSullivan @PlanMaestro @RolfeWinkler @LaurenLaCapra @davidgaffen @jennablan $$ Oct 27, 2012
  • @TraderNewsFeed No, I don’t think that. I think we should enjoy our work, and enjoy it for as long as we can, until we can no longer work $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • @rjwile True, but that’s the price of not saving enough. There is no right to a retirement. Someone send the EU the memo. $$ Oct 26, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial I largely agree. Reducing the real value of debts would help. My only fear is that nominal incomes might not grow much $$ Oct 25, 2012
  • @OVVOFinancial Missed that, thanks. Still, the Chain-weighted PCE deflator is 1.5% yoy at present. Oct 25, 2012
  • @barnejek oops Oct 24, 2012
  • @PragCapitalist A boat is a hole in the water into which you pour money $$ That said, the recession created a lot of used boats 4 sale Oct 24, 2012
  • @tebaho I am not a Romney backer Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein lifted the stake above 50% by 1995. Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein In 1977, GEICO was ~6% of his public investments, before $BRK.B acquired 33% of the company by 1980, and buybacks + Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein In 1981, GEICO was ~30% of his public investments — no data on how big his private investments were then $BRK.B $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein 1996-7 around 16% of pretax income. Prior to that, it was not wholly owned, and so Buffett acctd 4 it as an investment $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein $BRK.B would not want to live without GEICO, but in my opinion, it could live without it Oct 24, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein It’s about 5% of BRK’s pretax profits. The float it generates is very short and is only 5% of liabilities. Oct 24, 2012
  • @PragCapitalist It’s a conglomerate fueled by a set of huge insurance companies, where assets r sourced privately & publicly $$ $BRK.B Oct 24, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro @aarontask @TheStalwart I think it is spurious correlation b/c I c many other variable that r weak. US economy is flat. $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • @felixsalmon In the NT Greek, there r2 words for God’s will, &1 tells u God ordains everything, the other, he doesn’t approve everything Oct 24, 2012
  • @CflGator I would ask the question, how is $TGT going to deploy the capital? The answer probably lies there. Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen America’s politicians have always made appeals based on religion, & then abandoned the religious voters that support them (not new) Oct 24, 2012
  • @joshuademasi I realize with Japan, it is unlikely 4 there 2b an external default, until the external debt gets big enough Oct 24, 2012
  • @aarontask This is a stock versus flow issue. The banks reap capital gains now, but it will reduce their future interest margins/income $$ Oct 24, 2012
  • @CflGator Think they are trying to free up capital for alternative uses. Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen But all people have unprovable a priori opinions, and many will affect their views on public policy, whether “religious” or not Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen It becomes the same paradox that philosophers go through with respect to the concept of free will vs determinism Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen Even 2a Christian like me, God’s will is a highly nuanced, b/c there r 2 words in NT Greek 4 “will” & they mean different things Oct 24, 2012
  • @LDrogen One of my close friends came into existence as a result of a rape. Two good people adopted him; biological mother was courageous Oct 24, 2012
  • . @aarontask will look for it — if anyone has a link 2 it, pass it 2 me Oct 24, 2012
  • @joshuademasi Nations with their own currencies don’t have to default on debts. I think some will choose to default for political reasons $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • “This brings up something @ritholtz would say ~ blog traffic goes up during a crisis?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/9U0OxjLe $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • @joshuademasi Not sure he will lose; he has a decent chance of being correct. Japan has preceded the global economy for past 20 years $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • “5. Tadas, as you have said before, investment/finance blogging is hard. And many of the best of us?” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/EuaE0hmB Oct 23, 2012
  • @StephenShiflett I distrust polls generally. I am not a Romney supporter. Most statistical comments in the media r not well-founded $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • @StephenShiflett Stratification matters more. The size was smaller than most polls I c, & instant senses of who 1r often not correct Oct 23, 2012
  • @DUNNER2 @CBSNews Now there was a poll that no one asked for, the sample size was far too small, but actually had a real impact. Sad. Oct 23, 2012
  • @Shwaver should be more like 5% if the poll is well stratified, and most polls aren’t Oct 23, 2012
  • @thejudge1082 @cbsnews I would criticize that as well. Most polls are too small and not well stratified Oct 23, 2012
  • @nmariecrumbie @DJDougMadrid @cbsnews I am *not* a backer of Romney. I am voting for the Constitution Party. I am a statistician, are you? Oct 23, 2012
  • @Justsaying1104 @CBSNews size *always* matters. I am a statisticiam by training. The hyper-short news cycle forced out a poll Oct 23, 2012
  • @Justsaying1104 @cbsnews of course size matters — what I object to is trying to get instant answers to what people are thinking $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • @ituzzip On a 500 person poll the error bounds are wider +/- 5%. But Rs answer polls less often than Ds. Oct 23, 2012
  • @JW28 Sorry, I am not a Romney backer Oct 23, 2012
  • @DJDougMadrid I don’t believe in instant, & I am voting 3rd party. Oct 23, 2012
  • @StephenShiflett Most polls I see are double that, it was still small, given the short time after the debate. Oct 23, 2012
  • @CBSNews Small sample size Oct 23, 2012
  • @TheStalwart I think you are fair and balanced, because A third of the time I agree, a third I disagree, and a third I an in-between. $$ Oct 23, 2012
  • @wallstCS FD: long $SFG — You do realize that revenue is not a useful valuation metric for insurers, right? Earnings & Book r relevant $$ Oct 22, 2012
  • @groditi @GaelicTorus it drives a lot of technology development, materials science, design (or lack thereof), advertising, energy efficiency Oct 22, 2012
  • @BradErvin1 No, the point is that corrupt governments tend to spawn corruption in society Oct 20, 2012
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