Monthly Archives: January 2009

The Humility of Realism — II

This post is supposed to be a kind of “catch up” post, where I write about a number of small things that I thought were interesting, but weren’t worth a full post. 1) The government can’t fund everybody. The recent backup in the US treasury note market is a great example of that.  As the […]

Creating a Black Swan

How do you create a Black Swan? It’s not that hard.  Start with something that you know is seemingly useful, true or good.  Then slavishly rely on that idea until it fails.  I’ll toss out a few here: The more people that live in houses that they own, the better.  The government should encourage home […]

Rethinking Insurable Interest, Redux

I didn’t think I’d see a proposal like this one which would (seemingly) bar investors from purchasing default protection via the credit default swaps [CDS] on corporations without owning the underlying bonds.  But here it is.  (It would also force the creation of a clearinghouse for CDS, something I have been more dubious about — […]

Redacted Version of the FOMC Statement

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish akeep its target range for the federal funds rate ofat 0 to 1/4 percent. Since the Committee’s last meeting, labor market The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined.  […]

A Different Look at Industry Momentum — II

There have been a lot of posts on the power of the momentum anomaly lately.  To mention two, there was my post, A Different Look at Industry Momentum, and a post by Mebane Faber at his excellent blog World Beta, Quantitative Strategies for Achieving Alpha.  I know there have been more recently, but somehow I […]

Ten Takeaways from the Greenspan Years

Barry posted a link w/commentary to this Bob Woodward piece in the Washington Post.  I thought it was a good piece, but said to myself, “Wait.  He also wrote Maestro : Greenspan’s Fed and the American Boom. There would certainly be a good parallel piece there.” So, though I am nowhere near as good a […]