I read an article by Zacks on RGA. I thought it was poorly reasoned. Here’s what I wrote as a comment:
“However, the primary factors to our Neutral recommendation are Reinsurance Group’s reliance on availability for affordable retrocession. The company had increased the maximum amount of coverage that it retains per life in the U.S. from $6.0 million to $8.0 million. This reduces the amount of premiums it pays to retrocessionaires, but increases the maximum effect a single death claim can have on its results, and therefore may result in additional volatility to its results.
Also interest rates are likely to remain low in 2011 and spreads narrow further. We expect to see additional pressure on the Reinsurance Group’s investment income. Moreover, management’s conservative positioning of the investment portfolio is expected to exert pressure on yield.”
I hate to say this, but you don’t know life reinsurance that well if this is your reasoning. Interest spreads are not a major factor in RGA’s profitability. Also, the retrocession cartel charges an arm and a leg for coverage. The earnings will be more volatile, but they have always been volatile with RGA. The time to buy is after a bad quarter, because mortality is random, but RGA underwrites well.
Let me get this straight. This company has a big moat; it’s part of the life reinsurance oligopoly. It’s trading at a forward P/E of 6, a trailing P/E of 5.5, and 65% of unadjusted book. This company is a leader in its industry globally, and you rate it a hold?
Let me tell you a secret. You almost never lose on companies with little debt, trading at single digit P/Es, and trading below book, conservatively stated.
I own this stock, and so do my clients.
RGA is trading cheap enough that I am considering making it a double-weight in my portfolio. It is a single-weight at present. It is genuinely rare that one finds such a quality company with protected boundaries trading at such levels. There are five companies that dominate life reinsurance globally, and in my opinion, RGA is the best, though they are a close number 2 by most measures of market share.
I don’t like writing about individual companies, because when you are right, one person praises you. When you are wrong 10 people criticize you. But for all that I simply say that I am long RGA for myself and my clients.