Cato Institute 30th Annual Monetary Conference, Part 6

Moderator: Tao Zhang
U.S. Bureau Chief, Caixin Media

Capital Freedom for China

 

Eswar S. Prasad
Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy, Cornell University

Renminbi as a reserve currency 3 conditions:

  1. Internationalization
  2. Capital Account Convertibility
  3. Do other countries hold Renminbi assets as protection against payments crises. (DM: also, do you want to have a lot of debt for foreigners to invest in.

Much progress on #1, little on #2 and 3.

Second order effects of opening: Institutional market development, financial market development.  Try out experiments in Hong Kong.

Size of China, macroeconomic policy potentially allow for  reserve currency, but the banking and financial markets are not capable of absorbing the volatility.

PBOC creating Renminbi swap lines.  IMF more involved w/China; SDR basket membership coming.  Renminbi becoming a bigger factor in the global economy.

Yukon Huang
Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

400 years ago, China was a reserve currency with 30% share of Gross World Product.

Being a reserve currency lowers trading costs, lends prestige.  Serves as a “Trojan Horse” for reform in China. Seiniorage.

Triffin dilemma, conflict between domestic and foreign goals, adds to currency risk.

China has partially internationalized with capital controls.

Also, reserve currencies are typically issued by democracies.

Chinese authorities use banks to motivate growth and development.  Not markets.

Capital flight happening.  Huang thinks that is good: diversification and other benefits.

Zhiwu Chen
Professor of Finance, Yale School of Management

Money used to settle increasingly more transactions in China, whether it is housing, wages, etc.  Everything is no longer tied to the government.  “Rise of the individual in China.”  McDonald’s in China originated “I’m loving it.”

As rule of law diminishes across Chinese industries, state ownership tends to rise.  The more free the movement of capital in Chinese industries, state ownership tends to fall.

China late to develop limited liability corporations in the late 19th century.

SOEs ran into major losses in the 1980s, and private corporations came back.  But most large firms are still controlled by the government.

Q&A

Possibility of democracy in China?

Prasad: No.  Communists have largely delivered the goods.  Regional problems.

Chen: Yes. Options for the Communist Party are limited. Change may be forced when the good can’t be delivered any more.

Huang: property rights are uneven, and Party members abuse their power.