The Aleph Blog » Blog Archive » Considering Selling the Long End

Considering Selling the Long End

This will not be a long post.  My bond strategy has always included longer bonds from LQD, and very long bonds from TLT.  They have made money for me & my bond clients.  But now I am thinking of selling them.  Why?

Let’s consider the history of QE:

ActionDateTLT Return
QE4

12/12/2012

-1.16%

QE3

9/13/2012

-0.39%

Operation Twist

9/21/2011

3.31%

QE2

11/3/2010

-2.04%

QE1

11/25/2008

2.94%

Now, QE2 was kind of wimpy, and disappointed the markets.  All the other actions qualified as bold, but bold actions are not moving the needle at present.  Why?

I suspect that bond investors are embedding higher inflation forecasts into their prices, and that the balance has tipped. Inflation is coming, and I am likely to trade away longer nominal bonds for short bonds, and inflation-adjusted bonds.

The market is responding differently to loose monetary policy than it used to respond.  Time to adjust; the illusions of the Fed are finally failing, I think, and markets may be about to discipline them with stagflation.

Full disclosure: long TLT & LQD, but might be moving for cover.






bloggerbuzzdeliciousdiggfacebookgooglelinkedinmyspacenetvibesnewsvineredditslashdotstumbleupontechnoratitwitteryahoo
Bonds, Macroeconomics | RSS 2.0 |

10 Responses to Considering Selling the Long End

  1. Greg says:

    David – I can’t remember where I read this first, but there is a “bond indicator” that compares the Moody’s Baa index yield with its 200 day moving average… and that has worked quite well historically for allocating in and out of corporates.

    Did I read about that indicator on your blog (in the past)? Is that indicator flashing red now?

  2. Greg says:

    Follow up … think I may have seen this bond indicator on Tom Brakke’s blog:
    http://researchpuzzle.com/blog/2010/09/15/the-indicator-revisited/

    The indicator seems to be signaling all clear for now (I pulled data from St Louis FRED database) — but I tend to agree with the concerns in your post.

    We will all pay a terrible price for what Bernanke is doing.

  3. cold.as.ice says:

    sell TLT and buy short.

    Any thought about something like in place of buy short?

    - Inverse ETF such as TBF

    - Buy the put or sell the call vertical spread.

    • I’m a low-complexity guy with bond strategies & ETFs. Also, if I use levered, inverse ETFs, or use options, I would have to get new E&O insurance — quite expensive.

      I stick with what I know, and try not to over-optimize.

  4. [...] Blog: Stagflation on the horizon?  - The market is responding differently to loose monetary policy than it used to respond.  Time [...]

  5. richt says:

    Wow, that is a very interesting call, because it seems to me that up until recently you were thinking that it could be a long time before rates and inflation went up. (We even had a little Twitter exchange about it a couple weeks back).

    Am I misinterpreting your views, or is this a pretty fundamental shift in your outlook?

    Thanks!

    • The operative word is “consider.” I haven’t sold it yet. What I am seeing is that the market may be operating on a different basis now, but I am waiting to see confirmation of that.

      Though I thought low rates could remain for a long time, that did not preclude my looking for a change in behavior — I asked both leading deflationists (Schiller & Hoisington) what would lead them to change their views. Both said a rise in bank lending leading to inflation.

      We may be at that cusp now; thus, I am watching closely.

      • richt says:

        Thanks David. I look forward to hearing your evolving thoughts on the matter. This is a huge question (perhaps the biggest of all).

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

 Subscribe in a reader

 Subscribe in a reader (comments)

Subscribe to RSS Feed

Enter your Email


Preview | Powered by FeedBlitz

Seeking Alpha Certified

Top markets blogs award

The Aleph Blog

Top markets blogs

InstantBull.com: Bull, Boards & Blogs

Blog Directory - Blogged

IStockAnalyst

Benzinga.com supporter

All Economists Contributor

Business Finance Blogs
OnToplist is optimized by SEO
Add blog to our blog directory.

Page optimized by WP Minify WordPress Plugin