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Sorted Weekly Tweets



  • Here’s my plan for reducing the deficit: #mydeficitplan via @wsj Draconian, I know, but the budget shoould b balanced Dec 21, 2012
  • Canada’s exports crucial as sluggish growth continues: IMF Bank of Canada should raise rates 2 reduce excessive debt $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Everything You Need To Know About the Economy in 2012, in 34 Charts Good stuff; could have been formatted better $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Fiscal Cliff’s Dirty Secret: It’s Not About Taxes At All, But Too Much Spending We need 2 deal w/SS, Medicare & Defense Dec 20, 2012
  • We’ve Nationalized the Home Mortgage Market. Now What? Congress loves 2 have cows around that they can milk for $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • EU Banking Re-Unions The lack of a timetable indicates that things aren’t really finalized; not sure this will fly $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • ‘Spending Cuts’ Lose Something in Translation Only in DC is reducing planned growth in spending called a cut $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Money Funds Brace for Flood MMFs r between a rock & a hard place: loose Fed policy & regulatory over-reach $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Wall Street’s Biggest Geniuses Reveal Their Favorite Charts Of 2012 Very long, but lots of good stuff $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • My forward estimates, derived from TIPS are rising, 2014 inflation, and 2018-2022 inflation. The latter has… Dec 19, 2012
  • Estimated 2018-2022 inflation rate continues to rise: Stagflation may be coming. cc: @federalreserve #stagflation $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Estimated 2014 inflation rate continues to rise: Stagflation may be coming. cc: @federalreserve #stagflation Dec 19, 2012
  • Economics may be dismal, but it is not a science No universal economic theory, & new economic thinking must be eclectic Dec 18, 2012
  • Fisher: Fed Risks ‘Hotel California’ Monetary Policy When the Fed starts 2 tighten, it will b hard 2 do $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • FDIC Guarantee Program Set to Expire After Senate Block Will squeeze the short end of the yield curve further $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • US Banks Lack Liquidity to Withstand Crisis, Study Says Liquidity mismatches r pernicious; key risk gets ignored $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Mkts r discounting mechanisms. Temporary events like bond ratings, debt ceiling & fiscal cliff should not affect market much $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • So, as an example, if the govt runs a deficit, it should not stimulate much b/c people discount future econ adjustment b/c of more debt $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Same 4 monetary policy; the Fed can “stimulate” as much as it likes; mkt players discount the future removal of policy, inflation, etc. $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Cliff? What Cliff? Or maybe, just maybe investors don’t care whether we go over the “fiscal cliff” or not. $$ Dec 17, 2012


Stocks & Sectors


  • There are 272 gold & silver companies trading on US exchanges or OTC. 59 of them have mkt caps > $100M. 22 of them have mkt caps > $1B $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Aviva Sells US Life Business to Apollo for $1.8B When Aviva bot Amerus, I said that they overpaid massively. Proof $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • Value Investing In Practice: A Conversation About Oaktree Capital Good value investing does not hyper-diversify $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • ICE in Deal to Buy NYSE New era; expect 2c more deals like this. As an aside average holders of $NYX stock lost $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Buffett’s Leading The Corporate Buyback Surge He has the $$, & 1.2x BV is a defensible floor ||| FD: + $BRK.B Dec 19, 2012
  • Investment Fads and Themes by Year, 1996-2012 @reformedbroker on what the broad themes this year & back to 1996 $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Alterra up after deal, analyst positive on Bermuda peers Room 4 a new round of consolidation. $MKL buys $ALTE $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • $ALL Bets on Home Insurance as Stock Rally Withstands Sandy Insured damages (excl flood) low4 Sandy; premratesflat $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Stocks Held Hostage as CEOs Plan Spending Cuts It is difficult to avoid deflation; so much uncertainty presently $$ Dec 18, 2012


Credit & Fixed Income


  • Swaps ‘Armageddon’ Lingers as New Rules Concentrate Risk Clearinghouses r not a panacea; it is possible 4 them 2 fail Dec 21, 2012
  • Americans Hacked Don’t Know Chamber Left Them Alone Common programs place yr computr @ risk; CoC defends SW makers $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • The Indianapolis 500 of Corporate Bonds Yields Too much $$ flowing into corporate credit; feels like 2006 Dec 20, 2012
  • India Cash-for-Gold Loans Hide Shadow-Banking Risks 2much lending creates a mess; 2much secured lending creates a panic Dec 20, 2012
  • Pimco Sees Spreading Slowdown Boosting [Australian] Bonds Pimco buying the debt of fringe developed nations $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • CAB Legislation Expected in January California legislation proposed 2 limit issuance of Capital Appreciation Bonds $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Why China May Be Facing US-Style Credit Crunch “To some extent, this is fundamentally a Ponzi scheme,” [Xiao] said. $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Pimco’s Gross Cuts Back on MBS Lightening up on MBS & Corporates, buying developed fringe, sticking w/TIPS $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Mind the rate risk Rates may stay low 4 a while, but when they run up, total returns could b worse than 1994 $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • Spain House Prices – Deconstructing Spain Housing prices continue 2fall, more foreclosures, setting up bad bank fund $$ Dec 17, 2012




  • Valero Received Approval 2 Ship US Crude 2 Quebec Refinery Could b start of something big: US exports oil FD:+ $VLO Dec 20, 2012
  • Extracting shale oil from a Dead Cow Interesting: after the expropriation of Repsol that oil majors line up4more $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Gasoline at US Pumps Drops to Lowest in a Year on Supply Gain Good news coming to users of refined fuel products $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • California refiners dreamin’ of shale oil face hurdles Many efforts t get cheap oil 2 CA; $24/bbl price difference $$ Dec 17, 2012




  • CEOs Concerned about the Time and Cost of Implementing Predictive Analytics Big data facilitates cluster pricing $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • In the Flesh: The Embedded Dangers of Untested Stem Cell Cosmetics Adult stem cells can do as much harm as good $$ Dec 19, 2012
  • The First Time Tech Ruined the Music Business As technologies improve all manner of “rights” issues crop up $$ Dec 18, 2012
  • Advisers Question Modern Portfolio Theory Look through the security 2 the underlying economics of the investment $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Twitter has started rolling out the option to download all your tweets Not common yet, but may b coming soon $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • Schools Safer Than 1990s as Educators Anticipate Killers Students r far less likely2b killed in school than elsewhere Dec 17, 2012
  • Highest-Paid California Trooper Is Chief Banking $484,000 Giving officers comp time rather than $$ 4 unused vacation Dec 17, 2012
  • ‘Followers for sale’: Twitter’s very own black market Fake Follower Check will estimate how many followers r real $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • SEC Says Asset Firm Manipulated Trades to Enrich Some Clients I remember their ads, proclaiming their track record $$ Dec 17, 2012



  • Bad idea: Africa Dreams of Building Telescopes to Study Space Would make more sense 4 Africa to fix agriculture $$ Dec 20, 2012
  • Wrong: US should intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh process at the highest level We should stick 2r own business $$ Dec 18, 2012
  • Wrong: This is why I generally don’t like Quartz; pretending to be smart $$ RT Our favorite charts of 2012 Dec 18, 2012


Replies & Comments

  • “This would have been a better article if you had put separators between each graph/explanation.” — David_Merkel $$ Dec 21, 2012
  • @EddyElfenbein Thanks, Eddy. Dec 19, 2012
  • @geekpryde Hey, thanks for the kind words, I appreciate that you follow me. Dec 19, 2012
  • @VIXandMore Ludwig is letting us down, and 3 days after his birthday. Call Schroeder ;) Dec 19, 2012
  • @Alea_ Cool new avatar, I like it Dec 19, 2012
  • @Money_in_Stereo Well said, though I am not an expert there. Thanks for sharing that. Dec 18, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap Hint: if company is offering u a nice buyout, they r offering less than its worth, unless u no more about when u will die $$ Dec 18, 2012
  • @volatilitysmile @carney I knew a close adviser of Mozillo; he told me stories of how disconnected Angelo was w/reality in 2009 $$ Dec 17, 2012
  • @nicster There have been many changes, but they are all local, and don’t make the news. US Govt was stupid on the shoe bomb. Local better $$ Dec 15, 2012


  • Amazing RT @moorehn: “the average lifespan of American musical superstars in the pop, rock and rap genre is only 45.” Dec 20, 2012
  • Practically. Old bond mgr rule: underweight the most rapidly growing debt class $$ RT @ToddSullivan: didn’t they already do student loan? Dec 20, 2012
  • Remember deriving formula when younger $$ RT @munilass: Twelve Days of Christmas and tetrahedral numbers (via @ptak) Dec 20, 2012
  • You can say that again $$ RT @japhychron: @AlephBlog Always funny the way they call economics a science. Studying people is anything but. Dec 18, 2012
  • Banks are insolvent & w/large & rapidly growing budget deficit $$ RT @FGoria: DJ: Cyprus May Be Days Away From Default — Fin Min Official Dec 17, 2012
  • Sad & dumb $$ RT @carney: You’d never guess who has a completely self-serving & bonkers theory of the financial crisis. Dec 17, 2012


Twitter Summary

  • My week on twitter: 72 retweets received, 1 new listings, 85 new followers, 132 mentions. Via: Dec 20, 2012


Asset Allocation, Banks, Bonds, Fed Policy, Insurance, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Management, Real Estate and Mortgages, Speculation, Stocks, Tweets, Value Investing | RSS 2.0 |

Comments are closed.


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.

Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.

Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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