Sorted Weekly Tweets



  • To all of my readers: Happy New Year. Here is to a blessed and fulfilling 2013, amid troubles and joys – no year is w/o them, glory 2 God $$ Jan 01, 2013
  • To all of my readers: 2012 had its joys and sorrows, but I appreciate that you read me. I will always try to bring you my best on twitter $$ Jan 01, 2013



US Fiscal Policy


  • Why the fights over disaster relief in Congress keep getting worse Local disasters increasing funded by Feds $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Sorry Folks, The $1 Trillion Coin Is Unconstitutional h/t: @carney | Congress controls $$ policy, can’t delegate 2exec Jan 04, 2013
  • Why were there so many special interest provisions in the fiscal bill? Why didn’t the president veto it & ask 4a clean bill? #fiscalcliff411 Jan 04, 2013
  • Fresh Budget Fights Brewing Markets Breathe Sigh of Relief After Fiscal Clash, but Tax-and-Cut Battles Loom $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Infighting in GOP Follows Scuttling of Storm-Aid Vote “Tin ear” When something big hits smaller principles must bow Jan 03, 2013
  • How Deal Was Made, Unmade, Then Saved Surprising deal between Biden & McConnell did an end-around on other tries $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • A trifecta of articles on pork in the fiscal cliff bill: & & Shame $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Senate-Passed Deal Means Higher Tax on 77% of Households What! You thought your taxes would not increase?! Hahaha! $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Deductions Limits Will Affect Many Taxes are going up more than you think due to the phasing-out of deductions $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Ron Paul Rips Government in Last House Speech He was 2good 2b in DC; now he can be a rock star on college campuses $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Sequestration Threat To Defense Sector Begins To Recede Grateful that I did not sell my defense stocks $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Bipartisan House Backs Tax Deal Vote as Next Fight Looms Both sides claim victory & decry dishonesty of the other $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • As an aside, when I had the chance to ask Ron Paul whether the Fed’s policies favored rich over poor, he immediately said, “Of course.” $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • House Balks at Cliff Deal; Down2Wire as Republicans Object2Lack of Spending Cuts in Senate Bill Fall off cliff $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Lawmakers push one-year extension of farm bill in bid to avert spike in milk prices Please, just free milk prices $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • US loses if we go over the Fiscal cliff = US wins if we go over the Fiscal cliff | Some will be b affected 4 better/worse; US will b ok $$ Dec 31, 2012




  • US petroleum rail shipments up nearly 50% in 2012 Only way to get additional crude to the coasts in the short-run $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Buffett Like Icahn Reaping Tank Car Boom From Shale Oil Buffett keeps all tank cars he produces-> BN can ship oil $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • A Novel Ship Extends Shell’s Reach High technology at work in offshore oil drilling. Impressive! $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Shale-Gas Revolution Spurs Wave of New US Steel Plants Ask this: what other impacts exist from cheap natgas? $$ Dec 31, 2012




  • “Did the authors look at the “Call Reports” filed with the FDIC? More public data there. Kinda sloppy to miss that.” $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Why Bank Disclosure Is So Awful and How to Fix It Did they try reading the call reports? @carney Jan 04, 2013
  • BofA Joins JPMorgan in Having Units Ripe for Sale, Mayo Says Is there enough slack $$ around 2 absorb all of these? Jan 03, 2013
  • US Money Fund Exposure and European Banks: Eurozone Rises for Fifth-Straight Month “Risk on” MMF trade returning $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Insurer Sues Paulson Firm Does not seem like an easy win. ACA should have done more due diligence; they r pros $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Basel Becomes Babel as Conflicting Rules Undermine Safety Rules, not principles. External models, not internal $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Big RIA Firm Uses Bible to Advise Clients Almost every Evangelical w/$$ knows of Ron Blue; never knew he was so big $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Buffett Combines BofA With Buybacks to Beat S&P 500 FD: + $BRK.B | BRK is a conglomerate fueled by insurance prems $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Carlyle Agrees to Buy Duff & Phelps for $665.5 Million Cheap price 2 become part of the ratings triopoly $$ Dec 31, 2012


Fixed Income, Gold & Monetary Policy


  • Gold Heads 4 Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since 2004 Key Q: What happens to real interest rates; will Fed tighten? $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Gold Set for Worst Run Since ’04 as Fed Signals End of Purchases I would b skeptical here; no idea what the Fed does Jan 04, 2013
  • Risk Seen in Some Mortgage Bonds Many CMBS bonds seem 2b priced 2 perfection, while some fundamental weakness $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Does the Fed need a new mandate? Fed should have one mandate: tighten policy when goods or asset markets go crazy $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Fed Officials Divided on Bond Buys & increasingly worried about stimulus side effects $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • While still holding $TLT, my bond strategy did well today b/c of all the emerging market bonds.TLT is a deflation hedge Jan 02, 2013
  • TCW to Pimco Bet on Housing Bond Rally After 41% Gain Feels like squeezing last drop of juice out of the lemon $$ 😉 Jan 02, 2013
  • Credit Has Best Rally in Europe Since 2009 With Central Bank Aid At a cost of socializing future losses $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Why Bernanke’s policies could hurt the economy more than going over the ‘fiscal cliff’ Favors rich over poor $$ Jan 02, 2013


Market Dynamics


  • TV is Next: Why Investors Are Getting the Media Industry Wrong 52 pp PDF | $AMCX $CBS $DIS $NWSA $VIAB $TWC $TWX $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • U.S. Electricity Use on Wane A good time to avoid overpriced electrical utility stocks, and alternative energy $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Of $30.9B Special Dividends in Q4, 28.6% Went To Insiders Interesting skew on who decided to do special divs $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • A Really Good Year—Wins and Losses of 2012 Fridson: “Rather than being reassured, investors should be worried,” $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Avis’s smart Zipcar buy Too early. Depends on refinancing, expenses saves, & uncertain synergies & mgmt attention $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Tribune Co. Emerges From Bankruptcy So who owns the equity interests in Tribune now? Dec 31, 2012
  • Risk defined. @microfundy gives us three common definitions of risk & explains the virtues & deficiencies of each $$ Dec 30, 2012
  • The Six Biggest Investing Lessons of 2012 @reformedbroker takes us through mean reversion, momentum, & optimism $$ Dec 30, 2012


Rest of the World


  • China Poised for 2013 Rebound as Debt Risks Rise for Xi Investment will not work, but will the Govt free the economy? Jan 04, 2013
  • El Al’s Shamir Parachutes Into Israeli Vote as Liberman Fades Would heighten tension level if Shamir is elected $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Chavez Cancer Imperils $7 Billion Caribbean Oil Funding Lot of “
  • Why 49 Is a Magic Number France has a lot of firms that have only 49 workers b/c onerous regulations kick in at 50 $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Great Canadian Maple Syrup Heist Cartel reminds of De Beers. Competitive supply makes it impossible 2 fix prices $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Used to Hardship, Latvia Accepts Austerity, and Its Pain Eases If u haven’t let debt get too large, austerity works $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Chinese Fly Cash West, by the Suitcase Kind of fitting that they come to Canada & US 2gain freedom after wealth $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • At Europe’s Doorstep, Fierce War Against TB Makes good case4 quarantine when diseases r highly infectious/deadly $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Japan’s Population Falls by Record in 2012 as Births Decrease Economies don’t work well when population falls $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Chavez Suffers New Complications After Fourth Cancer Operation If he dies by 1/10, there will b a new election $$ Dec 31, 2012




  • Then I Watch ‘Em Roll Away Again The fascinating story of Otis Redding’s final hit. cc: @reformedbroker $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Threatening Asteroid Will Narrowly Miss Earth in 2040 That means it will come within twice the distance of the Moon $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Outmaneuvered at Their Own Game, Antivirus Makers Struggle to Adapt Whitelisting, Petri Dishes, Cleanup programs $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Disease Rips Through Florida Citrus Bacteria Deal Slow Deaths to Trees; diversify to Brazil & California $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • Pattern time: 1-1-13 11:13 PM $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • For-Profit Nursing Homes Lead in Overcharging While Care Suffers Choose nursing homes 4 your loved ones w/care $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • “Minds work best when they r castles, w/a moat, drawbridge raised, defenders ready 2destroy thoughts of deceivers w/arrows & boiling oil” $$ Jan 01, 2013



  • Wrong: In a Diverse New Congress, Several ‘Firsts’ Congress not genuinely diverse; 2 types of thought @ most $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • Wrong: This Dow Component Has A 4.5% Yield And Sells For Less Than Book My comment: $$ Jan 01, 2013
  • Wrong: Benevolent Billionaires Should Buy Out Bushmaster Monstrously dumb column asks liberal billionaires 2 lose $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • Wrong: Gauging the Guidance That Models Give the Fed Neoclassical macro models r not capable of getting turning pts Dec 31, 2012


Replies, Comments & Retweets

  • @finemrespice @merrillmatter DB plans could have been managed better. Funding rules were too loose @ creation, & IRS discouraged overfunding Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice It would then send out notices to the oldest people not yet retired, bringing the retiree pop up to 1/3 size of workers $$ 😉 Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice At ~3 workers : 1 retiree. Yearly the government would measure the number of workers & announce the # that can retire (2/3) $$ Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice It’s a good idea. It would stabilize %age of people retired vs working. Another way would b2 set the ratio directly (1/2) $$ Jan 05, 2013
  • @finemrespice Good idea – Make it a %age (~80%) of the life expectancy of a 20-yr old. %age goes up if pop proj 2 shrink & vice-versa $$ Jan 05, 2013
  • @carney Thanks, appreciated. Jan 04, 2013
  • .@Carney delegate so much of its rulemaking to study committees. Most of the Dodd-Frank law is getting designed by bureaucrats. $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • .@Carney Having a hard time commenting at @CNBC on yr articles. If Congress can’t delegate significant lawmaking, how does Dodd-Frank 1/2 $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • “I think you are right. Why is it that bad monetary ideas get more “currency” than good ones? 😉 ” — David_Merkel $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • You can read my comment $$ RT @BloombergView: It’s time for Japanese women to honor their Gloria Steinem | Jan 04, 2013
  • ‘ @TheEconomist Cover preview: America turns European. January 5th – 11th 2013 Europe is in far worse shape $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • Bigtime $$ RT @NorthmanTrader: @AlephBlog speaking fees in 4 years….. Jan 04, 2013
  • @insidermonkey Bigger firms chain together a bunch of 49-person subsidiaries. The French allow it to happen. $$ Jan 04, 2013
  • @Dirty_Alfred @TFMkts Key Question: Do financial institutions have enough capital & liquidity to absorb losses,turning debt into equity? $$ Jan 03, 2013
  • @groditi I like the added duration so I don’t have to hold so much of it. More room 4 other diversifying bonds w/more potential Jan 02, 2013
  • Bigtime $$ RT @mcgilcoli: @AlephBlog a pox on both their houses! Jan 02, 2013
  • RT @AsifSuria: Agreed but they should have replaced Black Swan with Fooled by Randomness. MT @AlephBlog: This is a great list. http://t. … Jan 02, 2013
  • This is a great list. I have read almost all of them. Here are my disagreements. Aswath Damoradan… Jan 02, 2013
  • If he can stop that weird grin, I can stop $$ RT @BloombergView: Can we all please stop laughing at Joe Biden? | Jan 02, 2013
  • @ritholtz I have a Tex-Mex Lasagne recipe near me. There r a lot of unusual/fusion recipes that borrow the layering idea from Lasagne $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • “This is why I use momentum positively in most of my investing, even though I buy a lot of undervalued companies” $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • “This applies to wealthy people anywhere; at times of crisis, give up 5-20% to preserve 80-95%.” — David_Merkel $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • @carney Great, I respect you, Carney. We don’t always agree, but I respect those that say what they think, contra politicians. $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • @McCainBlogette I am sorry, but every generation from the Baby Boomers & prior deserves progressively more blame. You don’t deserve blame $$ Jan 02, 2013
  • @carney Am I MSM, or am I just a blogger? I support the debt ceiling. Jan 02, 2013
  • Sad but true $$ RT @The_Analyst: making early call that’s your best/most accurate tweet of the year. Somehow she’s worth like $200mm. Ugh. Jan 02, 2013
  • Does she realize the she herself is a natural disaster? $$ RT @MicroFundy: Pelosi explaining how natural disasters happen. #nightisyoung Jan 02, 2013
  • Bigtime $$ RT @volatilitysmile: @TheStalwart best motivation to close a negotiation: being tired, wanting to just go home. cc @HarvardBiz Jan 02, 2013
  • U do it well RT @TheStalwart: Not to get sappy, but had a great 2012. Awesome year. Thanks everyone following and reading and all that stuff Jan 01, 2013
  • Yes, default is often the major form of deleveraging $$ RT @ZH_Crown: @AlephBlog @cate_long Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long & the other point is during a financial bust, enough debt has 2b liquidated/compromised/paid 4 things 2 become “normal” Dec 31, 2012
  • @fbaseggio @interfluidity @rfraserTX That could work; only difficulty is getting the data; oh, &getting the politicians 2 give up control $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long Yeh, saw that at the time; one reason we were short so many financials at the hedge fund I worked at — too early Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long Good bond mgrs know that when as class of debt is plentiful, you have to avoid it. Hard 2do amid benchmarking though $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • @mark_dow @cate_long Bad institutional incentives like the CDO mkt had 1998-2007, fed by fin’l institutions reaching for yield even in AAAs Dec 31, 2012
  • @cate_long Consumers may not be as leveraged as they were in 2008, but they r still highly levered relative to history amid high unemp $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • @GonzoEcon @cate_long Businessmen do not take risks when their own leverage is high &

they know their customers r in the same boat $$ Dec 31, 2012

  • ‘ @cate_long No such thing as “animal spirits.” If leverage high, caution is warranted. Low leverage allows 4 borrowing 4 new projects $$ Dec 31, 2012
  • RT @TheStalwart: RT @tylercowen: So many say Obama is bad negotiator, but isn’t he actually rolling “the left” and secretly in league wi … Dec 31, 2012
  • @dpinsen That *is* cheap. Pity I can’t use them 4 clients — self-imposed simplicity Dec 30, 2012
  • Fingernails, def RT @ReformedBroker: Should I take the kids to the Les Miz movie? Or just stay home and pull my fingernails out one by one? Dec 30, 2012
  • “If you didn’t mention #4, I was going to. I am still long $TLT for clients, but toward the end of…” — David_Merkel $$ Dec 29, 2012


  • My week on twitter: 36 retweets received, 3 new listings, 57 new followers, 69 mentions. Via: Jan 03, 2013