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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Pettis / China


  • Modified Pettis: Peripheral country depositors will remember Cyprus & it will affect their future credibility w/deposit guarantees $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Pettis: the idea that urbanization creates growth may have the causality backwards. It is far more likely that growth causes urbanization $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Parsing the Words of the New Premier Li Keqiang: We need to leave to the market and society what they can do well $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Closer Look: Parsing the Words of the New Premier – Previous quote taken from Pettis, led me to this article $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Li Keqiang: The reform is about curbing government power. As a self-imposed revolution, it will require real sacrifice and will be painful $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Pettis: It turns out that we’ve seen record growth in debt. Is it really a surprise then that [China's] economy is still growing quickly? Mar 22, 2013
  • Pettis:It isn’t until you write down the debt associated with the second bridge that you end up with a more meaningful measure of GDP. (3/3) Mar 22, 2013
  • official measures will have them contributing the same amount to GDP, even though the former creates real value & the latter does not (2/2) Mar 22, 2013
  • Pettis: If you spend $100 million each on two separate bridges, one of which is actively used and the other rarely used, (1/2) Mar 22, 2013
  • Biggest Solar Collapse in China Imperils $1.28 Billion Even w/subsidies solar is an inefficient technology $$ #duh Mar 21, 2013




  • FED Optimistic Forecasts… The FOMC is always overoptimistic; they consider that 2b a part of their jobs $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Wrong:US economy needs a third term of Ben Bernanke A lunatic praises a dangerous lunatic leading US 2 Stagflation $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • That’s all folks! #FOMC $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency for Year end Fed Funds forecast: 2013 0.29%, 2014 0.55%, 2015 1.30%, Long run 4.01% $$ #FOMC Who can tell? Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency 4 PCE inflation fcst since December 2012: 2013 1.55%, 2014 1.75%, 2015 1.93%, Long run 2.00% $$ #FOMC Way 2 optimistic Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Unemployment rt fcst since December 2012: 2013 7.35%, 2014 6.77%, 2015 6.20%, Long run 5.57% $$ #FOMC Way 2 optimistic Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency for real GDP since December 2012: 2013 2.53%, 2014 3.17%, 2015 3.25%, Long run 2.43% $$ #FOMC Too optimistic 2014-5 Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Change in Fed Funds fcst since December 2012: 2013 -0.11%, 2014 -0.05%, 2015 -0.11%, Long run -.03% $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Change in Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming fcst since December 2012: 2.49 yrs, which shortens by 3.4 months $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Change in PCE inflation fcst since December 2012: 2013 -0.20%, 2014 -0.03%, 2015 -0.01%, Long run no change $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Change in Unemployment rate fcst since December 2012: 2013 -0.13%, 2014 -0.15%, 2015 -0.08%, Long run -0.03% $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • FOMC Central Tendency Change in real GDP since December 2012: 2013 -0.10%, 2014 -0.32%, 2015 -0.13%, Long run -0.03% $$ #FOMC Mar 20, 2013
  • I am shocked that the Fed doesn’t have estimates on deposit insurance subsidies. That’s either a lie, or they should have that estimate $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • @pdacosta Good questions on Cyprus & deposit insurance subsidies $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Go Pedro! Mar 20, 2013
  • Federal Reserve, Expected to Continue Stimulus, Tries to Reassure Investors Doing the same, expecting different $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Bernanke Tightens Hold on Fed Message Against Hawks Wondered when this would happen; naive academic focuses power $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Insights from Former Fed Chairmen Greenspan, meh. Volcker says some interesting things regarding removing stimulus $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Fed’s Fisher: Too-big-to-fail banks are crony capitalists Break them up & eliminate their funding advantages $$ Mar 16, 2013


Companies & Industries


  • Proto Labs seeks 1st acquisition shuns 3D printing Instead of creating by layers, start w/a block & cut away $$ $PRLB Mar 22, 2013
  • Old Tech Stocks, New Value: Santoli Tough part: estimating moat & probability of obsolescence, margin of safety $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Health Insurers Warn on Premiums Wrote about this b4 law was passed. Was accused of bias $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Plywood Becomes Hot Item in Housing Recovery 4 confirmation, look here: Plywood on fire $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • As Crop Prices Surge, Investment Firms and Farmers Vie for Land Presence of a large amount of borrowed $$ = bubble Mar 22, 2013
  • Intuitive Robosurgery Training Seen Lacking in Lawsuits Accidents r common & significant training of MDs needed $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Gold Giants Shrink to Fit as Paulson Pushes Breakup Miners tend 2 overpay for marginal mines w/high variable costs $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Americans Cut Restaurant Spending as Taxes Bite Less $$ available for small luxuries like eating out. Mar 20, 2013
  • Electronic Arts Ousts CEO as New Game Consoles Await Game systems shift away from use of PCs; $EA doesn’t adjust $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • Revealed: The Fragility of US Wireless Customer Loyalty May be few choices, but wireless customers r not sticky $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Corporate Cash Piles Grow to Record $1.45 Trillion, Moody’s Says How much is domestic & not held 4 margin $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Intermediate hold co debt has none of the protections of sr unsec parent co debt, or operating subsidiary debt. Not worth risks, avoid $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • $HRG Announces Debt Offering by F&G Life Hldgs Total desperation w/intermediate holdco debt; Avoid, avoid, avoid $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Private Equity’s $36B Retail Bet Not Going So Well Retail does not work well w/leverage aside from mortgage debt $$ Mar 16, 2013




  • It’s Up to Putin Now: Cyprus Looks to Russia For Love—and Money Many Russians would lose $$ in Cypriot Bank default Mar 22, 2013
  • Just Let the Troubled Banks in Cyprus Fail @carney gets it right. Protect small deposits, wipe out equity, etc. $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • ECB May Cut Emergency Funding to Cypriot Banks after Refusal If Cyprus’ banks fail, will anything else fail? $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Cyprus banks dwarf economy thanks 2funds from wealthy foreigners Countries w/large financial sectors tend 2b risky $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • BlackRock CEO Fink Says Cyprus Instability Will Be Resolved The politics r pretty toxic; time 2end euro experiment $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Outcry over Cyprus bailout taxing bank accounts If it can happen in Cyprus, it can happen where you are too $$ #boo Mar 20, 2013
  • Daylight robbery in Cyprus will come to haunt EMU Imagine the US grabbing a portion of bank deposits in 1933 $$ #yuck Mar 20, 2013
  • Deauville Zombie Strikes as Cyprus Tax Inflames Crisis Hard 2 believe confiscation of deposits wouldn’t lead 2runs $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • The Cyprus precedent @FelixSalmon Taxing via confiscation doesn’t affect incentives, except the incentive 2 hide $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Cyprus: What Were They Thinking? and some other notes Try 2tax depositors, esp Russians, trigger a bank run, great $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Cypriot authorities in revised deal talks This is getting desperate. Remember when they said subprime was small? $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Dejected official: “If this is successful then it will be used in the future… If this is not successful then who cares about Cyprus.” $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Depositors Pay Price in Cyprus Bailout Deal Imagine waking up one morning & 10% of your bank deposits r gone $$ #augh Mar 16, 2013




  • Sierra Club blasts new plan to improve fracking Really depends on how much CO2 truly affects climate, jury is out $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Ethanol Slumps Against Gasoline on Speculation Imports to Climb Profitable to import Brazilian ethanol caps prices $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • HEARD ON THE STREET: Chevron, Shell and Big Oil’s Big Divide FD: + $CVX | Smart move was focusing on crude oil $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Wow, North Dakota, That’s a Lot of Oil Up ~1000% in 10 years, would b more w/better transport (pipelines) $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Consumers to Pay $13B Price as Ethanol Upends Refiners Ethanol an expensive fuel; we would not use it w/o govt req $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • Valero Cancels Sale of California Refineries Now better 2 retain them, if cheap oil can b sent there via rail $$ $VLO Mar 19, 2013
  • Suntech Said to Get Default Notice on $541M Unpaid Bonds Equity likely 2b wiped out, even w/some willing 2 4bear $$ Mar 17, 2013
  • Canada Wonders Why Crude Oil Is Coming From Texas This is the price of not permitting pipelines; US oil by tankers $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Three Years After the Spill, BP Gets Bullish FD: + $BP | Lots of valuable assets, but has the culture changed? $$ Mar 16, 2013


Financial Sector Issues


  • JP Morgan to Issue Its First Mortgage Bond Since 2007 Reps & warranties weakened; harder 2 put back 2 originators $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • “In money management what sells is the illusion of certainty.” @researchpuzzler comments on words of @John_Hempton $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • SumZero Honors: 14 Top Buyside Analysts @sumzero does a study of buyside analysts to find the best quietly working $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Proxy sites dump 1-click vote button on SEC concerns Levels the playing field a little bit; mgmt has 2 much power $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Masked by Gibberish, the Risks Run Amok Floyd Norris can write me 4 clarity, or read this: $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Buffett Says Bet on Natural Juices of Market USA is the most flexible place in the world, but stocks aren’t cheap $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • DeMarco pushes for 5-year wind down of GSEs Don’t c how politics work here; pols don’t like 2 give up piggy bank $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Could gold be the next Libor scandal? | Business Looks like real trades take place, so it doesn’t seem the same $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Workers Saving Too Little to Retire I know of few people who save 20% of their incomes over 40 years $$ #prettytough Mar 19, 2013
  • Stock Bulls Get New Member of Club I dunno, this makes me nervous. But 3% more upside in 2013 is no raving bull $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • Quantitative easing does little to boost gold prices Gold prices react to inflation adjusted cost of carry $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Traders Short Junk-Bond ETFs as Gains Top 100%: Credit Markets Short interest = 11.5% of total outstanding shares $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Wrong: Want to Fix the Deficit? Get Real Increasing the deficit from here would worsen our long-term problems $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Boo! Derivatives, Japan, $$ demise, pension defaults, debt jubilee RT @StockTwits: Zombie Swans from Outer Space #boo Mar 16, 2013
  • How to Safeguard Your 401(k) If plan has annual match, do not count on it. Avoid employer stock; know plan rules $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Company Insiders Are Dumping Shares! Or Are They? Best to look at what insiders do, not the large outside holders $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • If third-party custody fails in any significant way, i.e. bigger than what happened w/MF Global, all public investing will b ruined $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Are Your Assets Safe—No Matter What? @jasonzweigwsj talks about custody; strong incentive 4 present system 2 work $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Golden State Hits Golden Age Of Bank M&A Higher capital requirements create demand for banks 2 merge in California $$ Mar 16, 2013


Rest of the World


  • Is Emerging Market Debt Undervalued? I tend 2 think so, but performance so far this year has been subpar $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Bank of Japan vows ‘all means available’ to smash deflation Difficult 2 have inflation w/shrinking population $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • BRICs: a Slowing Dilemma The BRICs r not a natural group; very different econ, but as GWP growth slows, so do they $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • RAHN: Where will the next financial crisis begin? Numerous countries r poised 2 lead global tailspin; I pick EZone $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Spanish Banks Cut Developers as Zombies Dying Bottom not yet found for Spanish Real Estate $$ #bringoutyerdead #thud Mar 21, 2013
  • Europe’s work is far from over This is a colossal example of government management of the economy gone awry $$ #endit Mar 20, 2013
  • Canadian Household – Drowning in Debt Canada: poster child 4 Central Bank-induced bubbles, amid good fiscal policy $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • BRICs Abandoned by Locals as Fund Outflows Reach 1996 High Locals r throwing in the towel on stocks; time 2 buy? $$ Mar 16, 2013
  • Argentina Debates Pope’s Political Past Probably one where the truth will never b known; hard to fight a dictator $$ Mar 16, 2013


US Politics & Policy


  • Stockton Creditors Face Long Odds to End City Bankruptcy Think Stockton’s gambit will lose $$ cc: @munilass Mar 22, 2013
  • Gingrich-Santorum ‘Unity Ticket’ Almost Toppled Romney G+S-> 0+0 = -1. Romney= -2. All R candidates fatally flawed $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Getting the CIA Out of the Drone War It matters less who does it, because there is no moral basis for it $$ #enditnow Mar 22, 2013
  • Mary Pat Christie Juggles Roles as Political Facilitator Interesting background piece on Chris Christie’s wife $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • Postal Service Can’t Cut Saturday Delivery, GAO Says Loss of Saturday would b start of end 4 USPS> less relevant $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Rotten Tomatoes for a Billion-Dollar Farm Payout Ag is doing well in the US. Time to shut down much of the Ag Dept $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • California Nonpartisan Districting Ousts Life Incumbents Minimize internal boundaries subject 2 law requirements $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • Army Carbine Program May Waste $1.8 Billion, Report Finds Another area of DoD waste. Insiders tell me -> lots more $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • The Smarter Healthcare Consumer Myth Many underinsured people do not go to see a doctor when they are sick $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • Puerto Rico slides toward insolvency Puerto Rico exists to make California look responsible & Illinois honest $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Or, as the late Bob Casey (former Governor of PA) once said, “You can’t lose if you are a pro-life Democrat.” $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • RNC Issues Scathing Analysis of GOP Sounds dumb. Does not grasp the reliance of the GOP on moral issues voters $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • It’s a Lonely Quest for Land-Tax Fans, But, by George, They Press On Candidate 4 dustbin of history, dying hard $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Republicans Foil What Majority Wants by Gerrymandering I live in MD, w/Democrat Gerrymander $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Roadkill May Reach Montana Menus Under Bill Allowing Fare Interesting 2c differences in state policies 4 roadkill $$ Mar 17, 2013
  • Obama Will Use Nixon-Era Law to Fight Climate Change Expands National Environmental Policy Act to Climate Change $$ Mar 16, 2013



  • The Beatles vs. the Taxman: A Former Manager Recalls Yesterday Union of music,culture &finance cc: @reformedbroker $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • The Odd, Enduring Power of Dürer’s ‘Praying Hands’ An idol 2b destroyed; far better 2 pray, regardless of hands $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • ‘The Croods’: Making the Cartoons Sing As a musician, I find this article makes me optimistic on popular music $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • ‘BioShock Infinite’: A Videmeogame With a Political Philosophy Americans r exceptional; doesn’t mean they r good $$ Mar 22, 2013
  • The Branding of ‘Liger’: Tiger Woods and Lindsey Vonn Two attractive sports stars dating? A marketing opportunity! $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Inside the Art of Handling Negative Online Reviews When negative reviews come, act quickly, it could wipe you out $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Silicon Valley looks to Amy Andersen for love, at $50K a pop Awkward men seeking wives need tailored personal help $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • How To Quarantine Java Like The Disease That It’s Become Sadly, I have to keep Java 4 my trading platform $$ #poison Mar 19, 2013
  • Study: Delaying marriage hurts middle-class Americans most Putting off marriage often means marriages don’t happen $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • Helmets Preventing Concussion Seen Quashed by NFL-Riddell Long story on how conflicts of interest led2 concussions $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • With Speech, Cardinal Set Path 2 Papacy Argued RC Church was 2 introspective, better 2b out doing good, short talk $$ Mar 17, 2013
  • The New Unmarried Moms Teen pregnancy reduced, childbearing outside wedlock rising among 20-somethings $$ #bad4kids Mar 16, 2013
  • New York Is Sterilizing Its Rats. Here’s How Tasty stuff for rats that renders them infertile in 4 days $$ #whoknew Mar 16, 2013


Replies & Retweets


  • Could work $$ RT @steve_hanke: @AlephBlog @carney or try a swap. Here’s how we did it in Latin America:| #Cyprus Mar 22, 2013
  • @SconsetCapital In China, if the gov’t builds two bridges in a BOGO deal, I don’t think you’d want the free one ;) Mar 22, 2013
  • @Donald_Shekels No, not with the Asian operations Mar 22, 2013
  • @Donald_Shekels I could have said worse than I did, but I worry about getting sued. Mar 22, 2013
  • @JPDesloges You are off to a good start at Financial Iceberg. Keep it up. Mar 21, 2013
  • @agnestcrane Global Inequality is dropping, though. Global wages converging. “Rethinking Comparable Worth” $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • Get well soon! RT @StockTwits: StockTwits Is presently down. Apologies for the inconvenience. We should be back up shortly. $$ Mar 21, 2013
  • @exMBB No. But title insurers had a rough time after housing bubble. Fraud drives most title insurance claims. Title insurance is complex Mar 20, 2013
  • @exMBB It’s all heavily depreciated. Not an issue. Mar 20, 2013
  • Commented on StockTwits: You’ve got it, Charles. Where IB is good it is very, very good, & where it is bad it is … Mar 20, 2013
  • @sleepyhungry It’s like a barrier option. Once it is breached it is over — this is only the 7th time I have done this. U made me smile Mar 20, 2013
  • Doing what their targets do RT @rcwhalen: Foreclosure Processor Prommis Holdings Files Chapter 11 $$ Mar 19, 2013
  • But I think he is running out of options $$ $HRG RT @Nonrelatedsense: @AlephBlog continually amazed by Falcone. How does he do it? Mar 18, 2013
  • Extracts purchase price, retains control, kills bond buyers RT @Nonrelatedsense: continually amazed by Falcone. How does he do it? $$ Mar 18, 2013
  • I liked the photo RT @fundmyfund: @ritholtz what are you looking at in the new blog photo – a bird, a plane, or superman? Mar 18, 2013
  • RT @Royal_Arse: Mr. Merkel @AlephBlog is far more diplomatic than I in his tweet regarding pipeline construction. Mar 16, 2013
  • @pdacosta 2 create a synthetic, u need 2 speculators: yield hog who wants a security @ a high yield, & a speculator who wants 2 short it Mar 16, 2013
  • @pdacosta If that ever had to happen, would b a crisis b/c synthetics r more numerous than organic. They can b & were created @ will. Mar 16, 2013




  • My week on twitter: 54 retweets received, 2 new listings, 31 new followers, 58 mentions. Via: Mar 21, 2013
  • Here’s my NCAA Bracket: #BlindfoldBracket2013 I’m no great fan of College Basketball, but I gave it a try $$ Mar 20, 2013
  • David Merkel (AlephBlog) on Twitter Here’s a shout-out to my 7000th Twitter follower, Peter Saris @BMCA2461. Thanks! Mar 20, 2013


Bonds, Fed Policy, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Management, public policy, Speculation, Stocks, Tweets, Value Investing | RSS 2.0 |

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David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.

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