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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Financial Companies & Lending Markets


  • Hedge Fund GSO Scores Win With MBIA Bet Risky bet that paid off; he realized the banks would have2 compromise $$ $MBI Aug 10, 2013
  • Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Five-Year Low Judicial states trail non-judicial states as cases drag on $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • The bailout Wall Street is blocking from Main Street Eminent domain should not b used 4 trivial reasons $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • The US July 2013 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices Perhaps bank lending is turning up $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • The US Has a Really Helpful Student Loan Repayment Program—and No One’s Using It Pay % of your income for a # yrs $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • BofA Trader Avoided Bank’s Bad Mortgages ‘Like A Fat Kid In Dodgeball’ Colorful, shows awareness of credit issues $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Consumers Find Investors Eager to Make ‘Peer-to-Peer’ Loans Eventually credit will b abundant leading 2 failure $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Obama Urges Mortgage Overhaul With Limited Role for Gov’t Guaranteeing 30Y mtges incents housing overinvestment $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • House Democrat introduces bill to end mandatory arbitration Costs of court cases vs crooked playing field of arb $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Mortgage Debt Rejected by Banks Facing New Rules Fewer want 2 hold mtge debts b/c of changes in capital rules $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Many Can’t Pay Student Loans Some 8% of Borrowers in a New Federal Program Have Defaulted; avoid student loans $$ Aug 06, 2013


Companies & Industries


  • Hurricane forecast may have traders on edge Hurricane forecasting has not been very accurate over the last decade $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • Warren Buffett Trains ‘Elephant Gun’ on Smaller Prey No surprise. Buffett lets his managers buy good prospects $$ Aug 09, 2013
  • Remodeling Rebounds in US With Contractors Deferred projects r finally getting done, as ppl more willing 2 spend $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Loeb’s Reinsurer With No US Staff Gains From Jobs Act Just b/c u list on US exchange doesn’t mean u will hire here $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Goldman sees ‘creative destruction’ in these businesses Don’t agree on reinsurance; underwriting takes expertise $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Xerox’s Ursula Burns on Her Career Path and Changing Company Strategy Xerox is interesting turnaround FD: + $XRX $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • 27,900 Reasons For Amazon’s Loss Ordinarily, good corporate growth comes w/profits. $AMZN hires 28K over past year $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • CBS-Time Warner Cable Dispute Shows an Industry Unaware of Reality Internet may reshape economics of televison 2 $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Jeff Bezos’s Tool Kit for Washington Post Bezos is a bright guy, but making $$ off of newspapers tough w/internet Aug 07, 2013
  • Ride a Painted Pony, Let the Spinning Wheel Fly The word flywheel is popular 2 use, c here: $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • The 40 cheapest stocks, according to Goldman Sachs $GS tells u2 buy cyclicals. I own 4 on the list. Seems risky $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • IBM Furloughs US Hardware Employees to Reduce Costs 2me, this seems kind of gimmicky; I would lean bearish $$ $IBM Aug 07, 2013
  • Hidden Billionaire Found With Food Fortune in California Uses zoning laws to keep potential competitors at bay $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • We’re In 4A Long Bottom Barring strong inflation, gold miners have slashed exploration, mining best deposits only $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • For Twitter, Free Speech Is a High-Wire Act Twitter tries 2 chart a middle course in censorship in diff countries $$ Aug 05, 2013
  • Hidden Billionaire Cohen Hauls Fortune in Unmarked Trucks C&S Wholesale Grocers, biggest company u never heard of $$ Aug 05, 2013


Politics & Policy


  • A User’s Guide to Obama’s Inside-Out Economics Obama long on rhetoric, & short on reason; doesn’t understand econ $$ Aug 09, 2013
  • Fed Belongs to Everybody as Public Says It’s Our Money in Crisis Level of lobbying 4 Fed Chair is unprecedented $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • We Are All Going to Pension Hell @asymmetricinfo points out hopelessness of the pensions crisis, only Q is when $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Heroin Makes a Comeback, Especially in Small Towns Small towns gain big city problems; drugs know no boundaries $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Ted Koppel: America’s Chronic Overreaction to Terrorism The War on Terror has done more harm to the US than good $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Deficit Shrinks to 5.7% of GDP as Debt Ceiling No Vote Risks All Maybe the deficit will disappear by accident? $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Obama’s False History of Public Investment Planned 2b an investment, ended up being an expense. Happens in biz 2 $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • Insider-Trading Probe Caught in a Washington Knot Investigation of Health-Policy Leak Muddled by Congress’ rules $$ Aug 05, 2013
  • Central Bank Needs to Untangle ‘Monetary Gordian Knot’ Fisher says little help 2 job growth from $$ Trillions of QE Aug 05, 2013
  • US Growth comes Mostly from Inventories “Mostly” overstates it, but 40% does put a significant dent in GDP growth $$ Aug 05, 2013
  • US July Non-Farm Payrolls: The Hidden Weaknesses Number of hours worked decreased a lot & lower participation rate $$ Aug 05, 2013
  • Newt Gingrich sees major Mideast mistakes, rethinks his neocon views on intervention Not as big a change as stated $$ Aug 05, 2013
  • Republicans Don’t Need to Sabotage Obamacare Obamacare, badly designed, is its own worst enemy $$ Aug 05, 2013
  • Summers After Government Saw Wealth Surge to $17M “Consulting” can make up 4a lot of lost revenue post-govt $$ Aug 05, 2013

Rest of the World


  • In China, a New City Attracts Few CIties r organic things; they grow a little at a time, not all at once $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • India’s Fear of Growth Socialism in India is deep, as deep as corruption. Corrupt countries do not grow. $$ #simple Aug 09, 2013
  • Germany displaces China as US Treasury’s currency villain Low labor costs, strong exports, weak consumer demand $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Terrorist Tungsten in Colombia Taints Global Phone-to-Car Sales Long piece regarding FARC smuggling tungsten $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Vietnam Banking Fix Starts With $474M of Bad Debt Credit bust in Vietnam may b absorbed by central bank sub $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Obama Snubs, Russia Laughs, Putin Wins Russia policy is ticklish 4 any US president, little 2 gain either way $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • The $4M Teacher South Korea’s students rank among the best in the world, and its top teachers can make a fortune. $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Islamists Seize Airbase Near Aleppo This feels like a long bloody stalemate; a warning to all who favor war $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Toyota $37B Cash Program Shows Effect of Abenomics No: Toyota has no profitable places 2 reinvest in Japan $$ $TM Aug 07, 2013
  • China’s Debt Surge Pressures Xi-Li to Avert Lost Decade The time to avert a lost decade is when the boom is strong $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Mexico Leader Said to Seek Changes to Break Oil Monopoly Never thought Mexico would change its position on oil $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • India Names Rajan Central Bank Governor as Rupee Plunges Good choice; 1 economist who understands financial crisis $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • South Africa’s Post-Apartheid Failure in Shantytowns South Africa merely traded one group of cronies for another. $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • Will Portugal Bring Down the Spanish Banking Sector? Spanish banks lent 2 Portugal credits. Tough 2 do Pt haircuts $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • Ex-Soros Adviser Fujimaki Sees JGB Bust From Tax Delay, Fed Many difficulties afflicting Japan w/the weak yen $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • Baguette Hopes Fade for Some French Farmers on Wheat Quality Just 1 more economic difficulty 4 weak man of Europe $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • Stagnant South Korea Property Drags on Growth Rebound Add South Korea to property bubble club, underweight stocks $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • Bond Salesman Who Wasn’t Reveals RBS Human Errors Very senior managers fooled in2thinking janitor was top salesman $$ Aug 05, 2013



Bond Market


  • Pimco’s Gross Vows to Win Bond ‘War’ After Redemptions Maybe the total AUM has gotten too great 4 outperformance $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Bond Share Tumbles as Morgan Stanley Says Sell: Credit Markets Another “interest rates can only go up” piece $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • For Bond Investors, a ‘Generational’ Chance to Sell W/a weakening economy, this is not a done deal, 2many leaning $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Private-Equity Payout Debt Surges Borrowing to pay dividends to their sponsors; PIK toggles and other risky bonds $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • Get Ready for the Next Round of Bond Pain Pain won’t come if economy keeps weakening, but be wary on credit risk $$ Aug 06, 2013
  • US Credit Markets: My US Lite Rita Covenant: Freshness without Protection? Cov-lite loans larger % now than 2007 $$ Aug 05, 2013



Market Impact


  • How to Teach Teenagers About Investing in the Stock Market I learned from my Mom; most of my kids aren’t interested $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • What if the Stock Market Were a Bond? @eddyelfenbein gives a tool 2 analyze stock prices: $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • Confessions of an Institutional Investor @reformedbroker prints a saga of high expenses, negative alpha & hopeless $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Spot the Outlier @ritholtz notes the considerable outperformance of US equities in 2013. When does the party end? $$ Aug 08, 2013
  • Mind the (Expectations) Gap: Demographic Trends and GDP Because of low pop growth GDP growth resets 3% -> 1%/year $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • Advisers don’t have a firm grasp of ETF liquidity, Cerulli finds ETFs do not create liquidity, but shift liquidity $$ Aug 06, 2013




  • Detroit Losing $1 Million Check Bares Hobbling Processes Real question is why didn’t Detroit go bankrupt sooner? $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • Foodies Fight to Save Detroit With Job Hopes Pinned on Arugula Cities die slowly 2, as multiplier effect reverses $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • Michigan’s Saginaw County Postpones Debt Sale Wait. U r in Michigan. They let munis default. We will not lend 2u $$ Aug 09, 2013
  • Steve Malanga: The Real Reason the Once Great City of Detroit Came to Ruin Chase out middle class taxpayers $$ #boom Aug 06, 2013




  • Growth in crude oil shipped by rail slows Price differentials narrow 4 feedstocks & it does not pay 2ship by train $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • US refiners eye shale butane to cut gasoline costs Fracking producing cheap butane, alkylation can make it octane $$ Aug 10, 2013
  • Europe’s gas-fired power plants attract opportunistic investors Idea counts on electric rates rising; uncertain $$ Aug 07, 2013
  • US becoming ‘refiner to the world’ as diesel demand grows Adds2 GDP growth w/rest of world short refining capacity $$ Aug 07, 2013


Replies, Comments & Retweets

  • RT @trengriffin: The spectacle of journalists giving Jeff Bezos advice on how to make a newspaper profitable is like watching a Three Stoog… Aug 09, 2013
  • “If I were running a significant endowment, I would invest in people rather than external firms, and…” — David_Merkel Aug 08, 2013
  • @BarbarianCap move along, nothing to see here… Aug 08, 2013
  • . @Contra_Invest Try this: Wisdom from Howard Marks, with help from Seth Klarman in the last two pages $$ Aug 07, 2013


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David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.

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