The Aleph Blog » Blog Archive » A Preview of the Future in Local Government Financing

A Preview of the Future in Local Government Financing

There are several bad examples in municipal finance — Illinois & Kentucky for example, but the worst is Puerto Rico.  What is one way that you can tell that things are bad?  People are leaving Puerto Rico, and generally they are those that are better off.

Quoting from the article:

Seven years into a grinding downturn, Puerto Rico is experiencing a historic exodus of residents fleeing the island’s battered economy and rampant crime. From 2000 to 2010, a net 288,000 people left for the U.S. mainland, according to the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics. The pace has accelerated in the past few years as the economic situation has worsened, with a net loss of 54,000 migrants a year in 2011 and 2012 on an island of just over 3.6 million people. Preliminary data for early 2013 suggest the outflow is still strong.

The U.S. territory also is grappling with $70 billion in debt, ratings firms have downgraded its bonds to one notch above junk and investors fear it could default on its obligations.

When more than 1% of your population is leaving annually, you know something is wrong.  My main point here is not criticizing Puerto Rico, though.  It is part of a broader paradigm.  Badly managed states and municipalities will lose businesses and population, making them even less able to service debts.  It is akin to Matthew 25:29:

For to everyone who has, more will be given, and he will have abundance; but from him who does not have, even what he has will be taken away.

Jesus was not speaking about municipal financing, but the similarity is that those who do well will get more, and those that do badly will get less.

Several years ago, I was driving to visit my parents in Wisconsin.  As I headed into Illinois, I saw billboards encouraging businesses to move to Indiana or Wisconsin.  Municipal finance is unstable, because there is the incentive for people and businesses to move to municipalities where taxes are lower, and finances are better-managed.

We will see some states and municipalities fail financially over the next 25 years.  I can’t see how it could be otherwise.  And in the process, municipal bondholders, and pensioners will take losses.

So watch over your municipal bond portfolio, and avoid areas of the US where finances are badly managed.






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One Response to A Preview of the Future in Local Government Financing

  1. ChrisSchmidt says:

    Hi David, just recently came across your blog and wanted to thank you for your efforts and congratulate you on your work. Just a wild guess but you may find this link to a recent piece on Heinrich Pesch interesting: “http://www.crisismagazine.com/2014/rediscovering-heinrich-pesch-and-solidarism” . I had never heard of him or Solidaritism as an economic theory but then again there’s plenty more in the I’ve never hear of… bucket for me. Of course, it’s not just muni bonds and public pensions that are going to have some serious barber shop work done it’s the whole enchilada that has so much malinvestment and distorted prioritizations that it’s going to be very scary for too many. Anyway, thanks again and keep up the great work!

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David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


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