There’s one thing that is a misunderstanding about retirement investing. It’s not something that is out-and-out wrong. It’s just not totally right.
Many think the objective is to acquire a huge pile of assets.
Really, that’s half of the battle.
The true battle is this: taking a stream of savings, derived from a stream of income, and turning it into a robust stream of income in retirement.
That takes three elements to achieve: saving, compounding, and distribution.
What’s that, you say? That’s no great insight?
Okay, let me go a little deeper then.
Saving is the first skirmish. Few people develop a habit of saving when they are relatively young. Try to make it as automatic as possible. Aim for at least 10% of income, and more if you are doing well, particularly if your income is not stable.
Don’t forget to fund a “buffer fund” of 3-6 months of expenses to be used for only the following:
- Gaining discounts for advance payment (if you know you have future income to replenish it)
The savings and the “buffer fund” provide the ability to enter into the second phase, compounding. The buffer fund allows the savings to not be invaded for current use so they can be invested and compound their value into a greater amount.
Now, compounding is trickier than it may seem. Assets must be selected that will grow their value including dividend payments over a reasonable time horizon, corresponding to a market cycle or so (4-8 years). Growth in value should be in excess of that from expanding stock market multiples or falling interest rates, because you want to compound in the future, and low interest rates and high stock market multiples imply that future compounding opportunities are lower.
Thus, in one sense, you don’t benefit much from a general rise in values from the stock or bond markets. The value of your portfolio may have risen, but at the cost of lower future opportunities. This is more ironclad in the bond market, where the cash flow streams are fixed. With stocks and other risky investments, there may be some ways to do better.
1) With asset allocation, overweight out-of-favor asset classes that offer above average cashflow yields. Estimates on these can be found at GMO or Research Affiliates. Rebalance into new asset classes when they become cheap.
2) Growth at a reasonable price investing: invest in stocks that offer capital growth opportunities at a inexpensive price and a margin of safety. These companies or assets need to have large opportunities in front of them that they can reinvest their free cash flow into. This is harder to do than it looks. More companies look promising and do not perform well than those that do perform well.
3) Value investing: Find undervalued companies with a margin of safety that have potential to recover when conditions normalize, or find companies that can convert their resources to a better use that have the willingness to do that. As your companies do well, reinvest in new possibilities that have better appreciation potential.
4) Distressed investing: in some ways, this can be market timing, but be willing to take risk when things are at their worst. That can mean investing during a credit crisis, or investing in countries where conditions are somewhat ugly at present. This applies to risky debt as well as stocks and hybrid instruments. The best returns come out of investing near the bottom of a panic. Do your homework carefully here.
5) Avoid losses. Remember:
- Margin of safety. Valuable asset well in excess of debts, rule of law, and a bargain price.
- In dealing with distress, don’t try to time the bottom — maybe use a 200-day moving average rule to limit risk and invest when the worst is truly past.
- Avoid the areas where the hot money is buying and own assets being acquired by patient investors.
Adjust your portfolio infrequently to harvest things that have achieved their potential and reinvest in promising new opportunities.
That brings me to the final skirmish, distribution.
Remember when I said:
You don’t benefit much from a general rise in values from the stock or bond markets. The value of your portfolio may have risen, but at the cost of lower future opportunities.
That goes double in the distribution phase. The objective is to convert assets into a stream of income. If interest rates are low, as they are now, safe income will be low. The same applies to stocks (and things like them) trading at high multiples regardless of what dividends they pay.
Don’t look at current income. Look instead at the underlying economics of the business, and how it grows value. It is far better to have a growing income stream than a high income stream with low growth potential.
Also consider the risks you may face, and how your assets may fare. How are you exposed to risk from:
- Deflation and a credit crisis
- Regulatory change
- Trade wars
And, as you need, liquidate some of the assets that offer the least future potential for your use. In retirement, your buffer might need to be bigger because the lack of wage income takes away a hedge against unexpected expenses.
There are other issues, like taxes, illiquidity, and so forth to consider, but this is the basic idea on how to convert present excess income into a robust income stream in retirement. Managing a pile of assets for income to live off of is a challenge, and one that most people are not geared up for, because poor planning and emotional decisions lead to subpar results.
Be wise and aim for the best future opportunities with a margin of safety, and let the retirement income take care of itself. After all, you can’t rely on the markets or the policymakers to make income opportunities easy. Choose wisely.