In my view, these were my best posts written between November 2014 and January 2015:
Political changes rarely create the policy/legal changes that people fear or hope for, so relax.
There are seven problem areas in investment return modeling that are rarely dealt with, and certainly never as a group. That’s why I would encourage you to be at least least slightly skeptical of any simulation analysis that you might receive. This goes 10x for the schmendricks that propound multivariate normal simulations.
Every dollar in the door may be the same, but not every sale or promise made is equally good. The contribution margin matter a lot. Earnings, especially future earnings, always matters more than revenues.
It is little known that I analyze simple and complex investment situations for third party clients so that they can know whether they have a good deal or not. Do you need help with an investment situation that puzzles you?
Don’t argue with your clients when they leave. Wish them well, and do your best for them until the end.
Yield curves only shift in a parallel fashion about 40% of the time. The actual way that yield curves tend to move tend to overstate long bond durations [interest rate sensitivity] by two years versus a parallel yield curve shift.
The start of a nine-part series on my worst investment mistakes, beginning with a boiler room scam, undue pessimism from macroeconomic forecasts, and Caldor (spit, spit).
My personal reflections about Jim Cramer, and why I think efforts to make him change his ways will fail.
Why you should avoid margin loans; they are the best, until they are the worst.
I never completed this series, but here I explain how most financial risk statements are useless to average people. It would help a lot if plain language and straight talk scenarios were employed.
How do you cope with worry in investing? What if there are other things to worry about that you aren’t considering? (I also never wrote part 2 for this one.)
If you relied on the Swiss Central Bank to keep its peg to the Euro, you deserved to lose the money. Study history, and listen to the naysayers.