The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 32


In my view, these were my best posts written between November 2014 and January 2015:

Stay Calm

Political changes rarely create the policy/legal changes that people fear or hope for, so relax.

Problems in Simulating Investment Returns

There are seven problem areas in investment return modeling that are rarely dealt with, and certainly never as a group.  That’s why I would encourage you to be at least least slightly skeptical of any simulation analysis that you might receive.  This goes 10x for the schmendricks that propound multivariate normal simulations.

Revenue Misses Can Be Good

Every dollar in the door may be the same, but not every sale or promise made is equally good.  The contribution margin matter a lot.  Earnings, especially future earnings, always matters more than revenues.

Is This Legit?

It is little known that I analyze simple and complex investment situations for third party clients so that they can know whether they have a good deal or not.  Do you need help with an investment situation that puzzles you?

It’s Their Money

Don’t argue with your clients when they leave.  Wish them well, and do your best for them until the end.

Lagging Long Yields

Yield curves only shift in a parallel fashion about 40% of the time.  The actual way that yield curves tend to move tend to overstate long bond durations [interest rate sensitivity] by two years versus a parallel yield curve shift.

Learning from the Past, Part 1

Learning from the Past, Part 2

Learning from the Past, Part 3

The start of a nine-part series on my worst investment mistakes, beginning with a boiler room scam, undue pessimism from macroeconomic forecasts, and Caldor (spit, spit).

Should Jim Cramer Sell TheStreet or Quit CNBC?

My personal reflections about Jim Cramer, and why I think efforts to make him change his ways will fail.

Have Your Cake, Eat It Too, And End Up With Only Crumbs

Why you should avoid margin loans; they are the best, until they are the worst.

On Financial Risk Statements, Part 1

I never completed this series, but here I explain how most financial risk statements are useless to average people.  It would help a lot if plain language and straight talk scenarios were employed.

Living in the Land of Worries, Part 1

How do you cope with worry in investing?  What if there are other things to worry about that you aren’t considering? (I also never wrote part 2 for this one.)

Relying on the Kindness of Strangers

If you relied on the Swiss Central Bank to keep its peg to the Euro, you deserved to lose the money.  Study history, and listen to the naysayers.