Book Reviews – Page 27 – The Aleph Blog

Book Review: Beating the Market, 3 Months at a Time

Posted on 26 April 200826 April 2008 by David Merkel

A word before I start: I’m averaging two book review requests a month at present. I tell the PR people that I don’t guarantee a review (though I have reviewed them all so far), or even a favorable review. They send the books anyway.

Included in every book is a 2-6 page summary of what a reviewer would want to know, so he can easily write a review. Catchy bits, crunchy quotes, outlines…

I don’t read those. I read or skim the book. If I skim the book, I note that in my review. Typically, I only skim a book when it is a topic that I know cold. Otherwise I read, and give you my unvarnished opinion. I’m not in the book selling business… I’m here to help investors. If you buy a few books (or anything else) through my Amazon links, that’s nice. Thanks for the tip. I hope you gain insight from me worth far more.

If I can keep you from buying a bad book, then I’ve done something useful for you. I have more than enough good books for readers to buy. Plus, I review older books that no one will push. I hope eventually to get all of my favorites written up for readers.

Enough about my review process; on with the review:

When the PR guy sent me the title of the book, I thought, “Oh, no. Another investing formula book. I probably won’t like it.” Well, I liked it, but with some reservations.

The authors are a father and son — Gerard Appel and Marvin Appel, Ph. D. They manage over $300 million of assets together. The father has written a bunch of books on technical analysis, and the son has written a book on ETFs.

Well, it is an investing formula book… it has a simple method for raising returns and reducing risks that has worked in the past. The ideas are simple enough that an investor could apply them in one hour or so every three months. I won’t give you the whole formula, because it wouldn’t be fair to the authors. The ideas, if spun down to their core, would fill up one long blog post of mine. But you would lose a lot of the explanations and graphs which are helpful to less experienced readers. The book is well-written, and I found it a breezy read at ~200 pages.

I will summarize the approach, though. They use a positive momentum strategy on three asset classes — domestic equities, international equities, and high yield bonds, and a buy-and-hold strategy on investment grade bonds. They apply these strategies to open- and closed-end mutual funds and ETFs. They then give you a weighting for the four asset classes to create a balanced portfolio that is close to what I would consider a reasonable allocation for a middle aged person.

Their backtests show that their balanced portfolio earned more than the S&P 500 from 1979-2007, with less risk, measured by maximum drawdown. Okay, so the formula works in reverse. What do we have to commend/discredit the formula from what I know tend to happen when formulas get applied to real markets?

Commend

Momentum effects do tend to persist across equity styles.
Momentum effects do tend to persist across international regional equity returns.
Momentum effects do tend to persist on high yield returns in the short run.
The investment grade buy-and-hold bond strategy is a reasonable one, if a bit quirky.
Keeps investment expenses low.
Gives you some more advanced strategies as well as simple ones.
The last two chapters are there to motivate you to save, because they suggest the US Government won’t have the money they promised to pay you when you are old. (At least not in terms of current purchasing power…)

Discredit

The time period of the backtest was unique 3/31/1979-3/31/2007. There are unique factors to that era: The beginning of that period had high interest rates, and low equity valuations. Interest rates fell over the period, and equity valuations rose. International investing was particularly profitable over the same period… no telling whether that will persist into the future.
I could not tie back the numbers from their domestic equity and international equity strategies in the asset allocation portfolio to their individual component strategies.
I suspect that might be because though the indexes existed over their test period, tradeable index funds may not have existed, so in the individual strategy components they might be done over shorter time horizons, and then used indexes for the backtest. This is just a hypothesis of mine, and it doesn’t destroy their overall thesis — just the degree that it outperforms in the past.
They occasionally recommend fund managers, most of whom I think are good, but funds change over time, so I would be careful about being married to a fund just because it did well in the past.
If style factors or international regional return factors get choppy, this would underperform. I don’t think that is likely, investors chase past performance, so momentum works in the short run.
Though you only act four times a year, that’s enough to generate a lot of taxable events if you are not doing this in a tax-sheltered account.
It looks like they reorganized the book at the end, because the one footnote for Chapter 9 references Chapter 10, when it really means chapter 8.

The Verdict

I think their strategy works, given what I know about momentum strategies. I don’t think it will work as relatively well in the future as in the past for 3 reasons:

There is more momentum money in the market now than in the past… momentum strategies should still work but not to the same degree.
International investing is more common than in the past… the payoff from it should be less. There aren’t that many more areas of the world to go capitalist remaining, and who knows? We could hit a new era of socialism abroad, or even in the US.
Interest rates are low today, and equity valuations are not low.

Who might this book be good for? Someone who only invests in mutual funds, and wants to try to get a little more juice out of them. The rules on managing the portfolio are simple enough that they could be done in an hour or two once every three months. Just do it in a tax-sheltered account, and be aware that if too many people adopt momentum strategies (not likely), this could underperform.

Full disclosure: If you buy anything from Amazon after entering through one of my links, I get a small commission.

Book Reviews: Manias, Panics, and Crashes, and Devil Take the Hindmost

Posted on 24 April 200824 April 2008 by David Merkel

Sometimes we forget how bad it can be, and then we howl over minor bad times in the markets. We may be past a mania in residential housing, but we have not really experienced a panic or crash yet. People squeal over how bad the equity market is, but recently we haven’t had anything like the 2000-2002 experience, much less the 1973-1974 or 1929-1932 experience.

Two books come to mind when I think about disaster in a non-fear-mongering way: Manias, Panics, and Crashes, by Charles Kindleberger, and Devil Take the Hindmost, by Edward Chancellor. They take two different approaches to the topic, and those approaches complement each othe, giving a fuller picture. Chancellor takes a historical approach, while Kindleberger deals with the structures of financial crises.

From Chancellor, you will see that manias and their subsequent fallout are endemic to Western culture. Someone living a full life over the last 300+ years would see one or two big ones, and numerous small ones. Relatively free societies give people freedom to make mistakes. Given the way that people chase performance, we can all make mistakes as a group, with large booms and busts. Much as the regulators might want to tame it, they can pretty much only affect what kind of crisis we get, and not whether we get one. He is somewhat prescient in suggesting that the leverage inherent in derivatives post-LTCM could be the next crisis. This book is a better one if you like the stories, and don’t want to dig into the theories.

But if you like trying to place the manias, panics, and crashes on a common grid, to see their similarities, Kindleberger has written the book for you. In it he draws on a number of common factors:

Loose monetary policy
People chase the performance of the speculative asset
Speculators make fixed commitments buying the speculative asset
The speculative asset’s price gets bid up to the point where it costs money to hold the positions
A shock hits the system, a default occurs, or monetary policy starts contracting
The system unwinds, and the price of the speculative asset falls leading to
Insolvencies with those that borrowed to finance the assets
A lender of last resort appears to end the cycle

I liked them both, but I am an economic history buff, and a bit of a wonk. The benefit of both books is that they will make you more aware of how financial crises come to be, and what the qualitative signs tend to manifest during the boom and bust phases of the overall speculation cycle.

Full disclosure: if you buy anything through Amazon after entering their site by clicking on one of the links here, I get a small commission. That’s my version of the tip jar.

Book Review: Pension Dumping

Posted on 23 April 200812 February 2011 by David Merkel

I?m an actuary, but not a Pension Actuary. I don?t understand the minutiae of pension law; I only know the basics. Where I have more punch than most pension actuaries is that I understand the investing side of pensions, whereas for most of them, they depend on others to give them assumptions for investment earnings. I?ve written on pension issues off and on for 15 years or so. I remember my first article in 1992, where I suggested that the graying of the Baby Boomers would lead to the termination of most DB plans.

I am here to recommend to you the book Pension Dumping. It is a very good summary of how we got into the mess we in today with respect to Defined Benefit [DB] pension plans. Now, much of the rest of this review will quibble with some aspects of the book, but that does not change my view that for those interested in the topic, and aren?t experts now, they will learn a lot from the book. The author, Fran Hawthorne, has crammed a lot of useful information into 210 pages.

The Balancing Act

One of the things that the book gets right is the difficulty in setting pension regulations and laws. In hindsight, it might have been a good idea to give pensioners a higher priority claim in the bankruptcy pecking order. But if that had been done, many companies might have terminated their plans then and there, because of the higher yields demanded from lenders who would have been subordinated.

She also covers the debate on the ?equity premium? versus immunization well. Yes, it is less risky to immunize ? i.e., buy bonds to match the payout stream. Trouble is, it costs a lot more in the short run. With equities, you can assume that you will earn a lot more.

She also notes how many companies were deliberately too generous with pension benefits, because they did not have to pay for them all at once. Instead, they could put up a little today, and try to catch up tomorrow.

Things Missed

? Individuals aren?t good at managing their own money. Even if a participant-directed 401(k) plan is cheaper than a DB plan in terms of plan sponsor outlay, the average person tends to panic at market bottoms and get greedy at market tops. DB plans and trustee-directed DC plans are a much better option for most people. That said, most people prize the illusion of control, and will not choose what is best for them.
? Technological progress was probably a bigger factor in doing in the steel industry, and other unionized industries, than foreign competition. Nucor and its imitators did more damage to the traditional steel industry than did foreign competition. With commodity products, low price wins, and Nucor lowered the costs of creating steel significantly.
? In the analysis of what industries could face pension problems next, she did not consider banks and other financial institutions. Most of those DB plans are very well-funded. Why? They understand the compound interest math, and the variability of the markets. But what if the current market stress led to financial firms cutting back on their plan contributions?
? She gets to municipal pensions at the end, and spends a little time there, but those face bigger funding gaps than most private plans. Also, she could have spent more time on Multiple Employer Trusts, where funding issues are also tough, and plan sponsor failures leave the surviving plan sponsors worse off.
? She also thinks that if you stretch out the period of time that companies can contribute in order to fund deficits, it will make things better. In the short run, that might be true, but in the intermediate term, companies that are given more flexibility tend to get further behind in funding DB pensions.
The book could have spent more time on changes in investing within DB pension plans, which are drifting away from equities slowly but surely, in favor of less liquid investments in private equity and hedge funds. How that bet will end is anyone’s guess, but pension investors at least have a long time horizon, and can afford the illiquidity. My question would be whether they can fairly evaluate the skill of the managers.

Summary

This book describes the motives of all of the parties in DB pension issues very well, and why they tend to lead to DB plan terminations. There are possible solutions recommended at the end, but in my judgment they might save some plans that are marginal, but not those that are sick. If you are interested in the topic of pensions, buy the book, and if you buy it through the links above, I get a small commission. (If you buy anything through Amazon after entering from a link on my site, I get a small commission. That?s my tip jar, and it doesn?t raise your costs at all.)

Book Review: 7 Commandments of Stock Investing

Posted on 28 March 200812 February 2011 by David Merkel

For those that read my book reviews, let me simply say that unless I say that I skimmed a book, I read every book that I review, and I don’t use the publishers notes to aid me, as many other reviewers do. I just give you my opinion straight, even if I didn’t like it, realizing that there will be no commissions at my Amazon Store from that review. And that is fine with me. I review new and old books — I just want to point my readers to what I think is good, and away from the bad stuff.

I would also add that my Amazon Store is my equivalent of the tip jar. If you value my writing, when you need to buy a book from Amazon, simply start by clicking on a book on my leftbar, and buy the books that you would buy anyway. It doesn’t increase your costs at all, and I get a small commission.

Anyway, onto tonight’s book review. I am genuinely not sure what to conclude on “7 Commandments of Stock Investing.”? There was much that I liked, and much I did not.? I know that Mr. Marcial wrote a column for Business Week for many years, but that was not something I followed closely.? This is my first real introduction to his thought.

Let me take his seven principles, and go in order:

Buy Panic –? Hey, I can go for that.? The difficulty for average investors, and even many seasoned investors is that they buy too soon in a panic.? One also has to focus on companies that are high credit quality in order to avoid big losses.? That got some attention in the book, but not enough for me.

Concentrate, Diversify Not — Ugh, I like having 35 companies in my portfolio, because I concentrate industries.? To the extent that you concentrate, you must have superior knowledge of the companies that you own.? Without that knowledge, the average investor should diversify more, and investors with no special knowledge should buy index funds.

Buy the Losers –? Again, I can go for this, but it takes a special person to separate out the companies that will crater from the companies that have a sustainable business model and will bounce.? Buying quality companies is a must here, or else you can lose a lot.

Forget Timing — I agree.? I keep roughly the same equity exposure all the time, and my rebalancing discipline helps protect me as well.

Follow the Insider –? That’s a good principle, but I’m not sure that it should rank so highly in a set of stock picking rules. Insiders do do better than the market as a whole, but using insider purchase and sale data takes discretion to interpret.

Don’t Fear the Unknown –? By this he means have some foreign equity exposure and biotechnology investments.? One of my rules is, “If you can’t understand it, you won’t know how to buy and sell it.”? Getting comfortable with any area of the market that is volatile takes study and effort.? This is not trivial.? As for biotech in particular, that takes a lot of incremental skill that I don’t have.? After reading what Mr. Marcial wrote, I would not feel confident investing there.

Always Invest for the Long Term: Seven Stocks for the Next Seven Years — He employs a multi-year holding period, like I do, and then points out seven stocks that he thinks will do well.? I’m not going to spoil that part of the book by mentioning any of the seven, but none of them interest me.? (Well, maybe one or two at the right level.)? All of them are large caps, and are quality companies.

Quibbles

Under his first principle, he recommends buying the stock of the company that you work for when it gets hammered down (page 8).? Unless you are an industry expert here, be careful… you are compounding your risks, because your wage income derives from the health of the firm.? Don’t put your savings there too, unless you are dead certain.? (Full confession: I put one-third of my net worth on the line on my employer, The St. Paul, in March of 2000, selling in August of 2000.? Great trade, but no one else knew in the firm did it.)

On page 62, calling Primerica the predecessor firm to Citigroup is a bit of a stretch.? Yes, I know how the case could be made, but there were links in the chain where the smaller company was acquired by a larger one, and the smaller company came to dominate the management of the combined firm.

Under his third principle, he favored GM and Ford.? I can’t support buying such credit quality impaired investments under the rubric of “Buy the Losers.”? These are two companies that will have a hard time surviving in their present forms.? Motorola would be another example… a pity there is such a lag between writing and publication.

Summary

The book is intelligently written, and is short enough for an average person to read in 4 hours (188? pages).? He gives plenty of examples to illustrate his points.? I wasn’t usually enthused by the companies that he chose — I prefer to go further off the beaten path, and buy them cheaper.

His basic principles are good principals to follow, but they need to be tempered by a focus on risk control.? It’s one thing to serve up investment ideas as a writer — you can throw out a lot of promising ideas, and do it well.? What is tough is owning the companies, and trading through their troubles.? That’s a dirtier business; one where average investors will be more prone to fear and greed, and may not do so well, just because they can’t stomach the risks.

He also does not make clear how the seven principles work together. Need you follow all seven on every investment?? I think that’s what he is saying.

Away from that, you can’t use his principles on low quality stocks; that would be a recipe for regular large losses.? Buying panic, buying weakness, and concentrating requires a high quality approach to investing.

With that, I recommend the book to those that have enough maturity to know that they will have to bring their own risk control models to the game.? His methods presuppose a degree of ability in interpreting the fundamentals of companies, so I do not recommend this book to beginners; it would be a dangerous way to start out in investing.? Better to start with Ben Graham.

Full disclosure: If you buy this book, or any other book through the links on this page, then I get a small commission.

Book Reviews — The Alchemy of Finance, and Soros on Soros

Posted on 24 March 200812 February 2011 by David Merkel

One trap you can fall into in life is to not learn from those that you disagree with, for one reason or another. George Soros would be an example of that. His politics are very different from mine, as well as his religious views. He’s a far more aggressive investor than I am as well. I am to hit singles with high frequency over the intermediate term. He played themes to hit home runs.

The Alchemy of Finance made a big impression on me 15 years ago. Perhaps it was a book that was in the right place at the right time. It helped to crystallize a number of questions that I had about economics as it is commonly taught in the universities of the US.

First, a little about me and economics. I passed my Ph. D. oral exams, but did not receive a Ph. D., because my dissertation fell apart. Two of my three committee members left, and the one that was left didn’t understand my dissertation. What was worse, I had moral qualms with my dissertation, because I knew it would not get approved.

My dissertation did not prove anything. All of my pointed to results that said, “We’re sorry, but we don’t know anything more as a result of your work here.” I have commented before that the social sciences would be better off if we did publish results that said: don’t look here — nothing going on here. But no, and many grad students in a similar situation would falsify their data and publish. I couldn’t do that. I also couldn’t restart, because I had put off the wedding long enough, so for my wife’s sake, I punted, and became an actuary.

That said, I was a skeptical graduate student, and not very happy with much of the common theories; I wondered whether cultural influences played a larger role in many of the matters that we studied. I thought that people satisficed rather than maximized, because maximization takes work, and work is a bad.

I saw how macroeconomics had a pretty poor track record in explaining the past, much less the present or future. In development economics, the countries that ignored the foreign experts tended to do the best. Even in finance, which I thought was a little more rigorous, I saw unprovable monstrosities like the CAPM and its cousins, concepts of risk that existed only to make risk uniform, so professors could publish, and option pricing models that relied on lognormal price movement.

Beyond that there was the sterility of economic models that never got contaminated by data. I was a practical guy; I did not want to spend my days defending ideas that didn’t work in the real world. And, I felt from my studies of philosophy that economists were among the unexamined on methodology issues. They would just use techniques and turn the crank, not asking whether the metho, together with data collection issues made sense or not. The one place where I felt that was not true was in econometrics, when we dealt with data integrity and model identification issues.

Wait. This is supposed to be a book review. 🙁 Um, after getting my Fellowship in the Society of Actuaries, I was still looking for unifying ideas to aid me in understanding economics and finance. I had already read a lot on value investing, but I needed something more.

On a vacation to visit my in-laws, I ended up reading The Alchemy of Finance. A number of things started to click with me, which got confirmed when I read Soros on Soros, and later, when I began to bump into the work of the Santa Fe Institute.

I was already familiar with nonlinear dynamics from a brief meeting with a visiting professor back in my grad student days, so when I ran into Soros’ concept of reflexivity, I said “Of course.” You had to give up the concept of rationality of financial actors in the classical sense, and replace them with actors that are limitedly rational, and are prone to fear and greed. Now, that’s closer to the world that I live in!

Reflexivity, as I see it, is that many financial phenomena become temporarily self-reinforcing. ? We saw that in the housing bubble.? So long as housing prices kept rising, speculators (and people who did not know that they were speculators) showed up to buy homes.? That persisted until the? effective cashflow yield of owning a home was less than the financing costs, even with the funky financing methods used.

Now we are in a temporarily self-reinforcing cycle down.? Where will it end? When people with excess equity capital look at housing and say that they can tuck it away for a rainy day with little borrowing.? The cash on cash yields will be compelling.? We’re not there yet.

Along with that, a whole cast of characters get greedy and then fearful, with the timing closely correlated.? Regulators, appraisers, investment bankers, loan underwriters, etc., all were subject to the boom-bust cycle.

Expectations are the key here.? We have to measure the expectations of all parties, and ask how that affects the system as a whole.

In The Alchemy of Finance, Soros goes through how reflexivity applied to the Lesser Developed Country lending, currency trading, equities, including the crash in 1987, and credit cycles generally.? He gives a detailed description of how his theories worked in 1985-6.? He also gives you some of his political theorizing, but that’s just a small price to pay for the overall wisdom there.

Now, Soros on Soros is a series of edited interviews.? The advantage is that the interviewers structure the questioning, and forces more clarity than in The Alchemy of Finance.? The drawback (or benefit) is that the book is more basic, and ventures off into non-economic areas even more than The Alchemy of Finance.? That said, he shows some prescience on derivatives (though it took a long time to get to the promised troubles), though he missed on the possibility of European disintegration.

On the whole, Soros on Soros is the simpler read, and it reveals more of the man; the Alchemy of Finance is a little harder, but focuses more on the rationality within boom/bust cycles, and how one can profit from them.

Full disclosure: if you buy through any of the links here I get a small commission.

Book Review: Easy Money

Posted on 15 March 200815 March 2008 by David Merkel

For most of my readers, this book may prove to be too basic, but we all have friends that are not “money people.” They don’t know how to take care of their finances, and they constantly get into money troubles. This book could be of help to them.

Now, as you can see from the picture, you can see that she refers to herself as, “The Internet’s #1 Personal Finance Expert.” I can’t vouch for that. I like to think that I am aware of a wide number of trends in investing and money management, and this was the first time I heard of her.

There were five main things that appealed to me about this book. First, it’s not a long book (173 pages in the main body of text), and it is simply written, so an average person not good with finances could make his way through it. Second, even though small, it is pretty comprehensive for the finances of an average person or family. Third, I think she gets most issues right for average people who have relatively simple financial problems. Fourth, it provides advice on where to get more data, without marketing herself directly. Fifth, it summarizes action points for each area of personal finance.

I do write about personal finance a little, but you will never get the detailed advice on cash management, budgeting, personal credit, hiring advisors, and shopping smart from me that you will get from this book. My contribution is a more savvy view of investing and insurance. On the latter topic, insurance, I thought she covered the bases well. (As an aside, she shares my bias against variable annuities.)

Now, was there anything that I wasn’t crazy about? I know she wrote a book on the topic, but I think it would have been worthwhile to briefly explain why keeping a high credit rating in this age is so important, because of the effect that it has on insurance premiums, and even employment, leaving aside how much you will pay in interest, and how onerous lenders and creditors will be with you if you ever make a mistake.

Now on investing topics, the book is good but not great. For the average person that doesn’t matter. For those wanting to take a step up, I would recommend The Dick Davis Dividend. She focuses on saving enough (most people don’t save enough), and asset allocation through passive investments. She is a little too bullish on real estate for my tastes. Someone following her advice in these areas will do better than most, if they have the discipline to avoid panic and greed.

But, leaving those quibbles aside, this is a solid book, and those following its advice will benefit.

Full disclosure: If you buy through Amazon.com on any of the books that I review through links on my site, I get a very modest commission.

Book Review: The Volatility Machine

Posted on 1 February 2008 by David Merkel

There are some books that were important to forming the way I think about economic problems, but if I write about it, I feel that I can’t do justice to the quality of the book. The Volatility Machine, by Michael Pettis, is one of those books. Michael Pettis was a managing director at Bear Stearns, and an adjunct professor at Columbia University when he wrote it.

The book was written in 1999-2000, and published in 2001. It explains how economic activity in the developed world travels into the smaller markets of the developing world, amplifying booms and busts. Coming off the Asian/Russian crises of 1997-1998, it was a timely book. During boom periods, capital flows from the developed countries to the developing countries; during bust periods, capital gets withdrawn. There is a kind of “crack the whip” effect, where the tail feels the change in direction the most.

Borrowing short is a weak position to be in, as the Mexican crisis in 1994 showed us, as the Fed raised rates and the tightening spilled into Mexico, which was financing with short-term debt, cetes. The same is true of corporations that finance with short debt; they are ordinarily less stable than firms that finance long. The Volatility Machine explains why the same forces apply to both situations.

Buffett has said, “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.” Rising volatility is that tide going out, and it reveals weak funding structures and bad business/government plans. Booms set up the overconfidence that leads some economic parties to presume on future prosperity, and choose financing terms that are less than secure if the market turns.

Countries that are small and reliant on continued capital inflows are vulnerable to volatility. In the 1970s-1990s, that was the developing countries. Today, the developing countries vary considerably. Some have funded themselves conservatively, some have not, and a number are net capital providers. The US is the one reliant on capital inflows. So what would Michael Pettis have to say in this situation?

You don’t have to look far. Today, Michael Pettis is a professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management. He is studying China from the inside, and writes about it at his blog (I read it every day, and will add it to my blogroll the next time I update it), China financial markets. Among his most interesting recent posts:

China’s latest batch of numbers aren’t good

Chinese pro-cyclicality makes predictions so difficult

More on why high share prices don?t mean Chinese banks are in good shape

The new China-Europe-US world order

Things have gotten grimmer in China

His views are complex and nuanced, and reflect the sometimes asymmetric incentives that politicians and policymakers face.? When I read his writings on China, I am simultaneously impressed with the rapid growth, and with the potential fragility of the situation.

So, enjoy his blog if that is your cup of tea.? If you want to learn how international finance affects developing economies, buy his book.

Full disclosure: if you buy the book through the link above, I will receive a pittance.

Book Review: Financial Shenanigans

Posted on 22 December 2007 by David Merkel

A few readers asked me if I would review some books dealing with accounting issues. I’m happy to do that. I am not an accounting expert, and certainly not a forensic accountant, but my investing has benefited from being willing to look at the weaknesses in financial statements, and avoid companies where the economic results are likely worse than the accounting statements.

Howard Schilit, in his book, Financial Shenanigans, highlights seven areas where accounting can be fuddled:

Recording revenue too soon.
Recording bogus revenues.
Boosting income with one-time gains.
Shifting current expenses to a later period.
Failing to record or disclose all liabilities.
Shifting current income to a later period.
Shifting future expenses to the current period.

There are several common factors at play here.

Beware of companies where earnings exceed operating cash flows by a wide margin. (1-4)
Watch revenue recognition policies closely. It is the largest area of financial misstatement.? (1-2)
Look for assets and liabilities that aren’t on the balance sheet, and avoid companies with hidden liabilities. (5)
When companies do well, they often hide some of the profitability, and build up a reserve for bad times. This will show up in an excess of cash flows over earnings, so look for companies with strong cash flow.? (6,7)

The book liberally furnishes historical examples of each of the seven main categories for accounting machinations, showing how the troubles could have been seen from documents filed with the SEC in advance of? the accounting troubles that occurred.? Now, aside from point 5, the other six points boil down to a simple rule: watch operating cash flow versus earnings.? I wouldn’t say that the cash flow statement never lies, but investors pay more attention to the income statement and balance sheet.? Aside from outright fraud, ordinary deceivers can manipulate one statement, and clever deceivers can manipulate two.? To do three, it takes fraud.

Now, suppose you have found a company where the operating cash flows are weak relative to reported earnings.? That is where this book can help, because it will give you ways to analyze whether the difference is accounting distortion or not.? For those of us who use quantitative methods to aid our investing, this is particularly important, because many companies are seemingly cheap on GAAP book and earnings, but a review of the cash flow statement will often highlight the troubles.

The book is an easy read, and does not require detailed knowledge of accounting in order to get value out of it.? For fundamental investors, I recommend this book, with the proviso that it only works with non-financial companies.? Financial companies are more complex (they are all accruals — the cash flow statement is not very useful), and can’t easily be analyzed for earnings quality from looking at the financial statements alone.

Full disclosure: I get a pittance from each book sold through the link listed above.

Book Review: The Dick Davis Dividend

Posted on 13 December 200713 December 2007 by David Merkel

I must confess that I had merely heard of Dick Davis, but did not know much about him until reading his book. I enjoyed his book, and think it is useful to new investors, and investors that have been unsuccessful in actively managing their own portfolios. I have read the whole book; this is not a review that comes from bullet points suggested by the publisher or author (sent to me and others, I have ignored them). I do have a minor criticism of the book; more on that later.

The first thing to appreciate about the book is its structure. After learning about the long career of the author, the book begins with a small amount of basic ideas per chapter, moves to progressively larger numbers of ideas per chapter that are less basic, and then returns the way it came, ending with progressively fewer ideas per chapter, but more basic ones.

The second thing to appreciate is the humility of Mr. Davis. His first answer to most investment questions is ?I don?t know,? followed by reasons for and against the proposed course of action, after which he would indicate an opinion if he has one, and then say that he could be wrong, and that it would be good to do further study.

What does the book emphasize?

Passive investing (ETFs and index funds)
Careful selection of active managers.
Imitating those carefully selected active managers if one decides to invest in common stocks directly.
Avoiding too much trading, because the average investor tends to panic at bottoms, and get greedy at tops. Buying and selling have to be properly timed, because the average investor tends to do worse than the buy-and-hold investor.
Be careful with costs on mutual funds. Most aren?t worthy of the fees, and with bond funds, cost advantages are the most durable.
Invest for the long haul, realizing there will be bumps along the way, and keep enough excess liquidity on hand.
There is no one right person or opinion. Things shift in the market, and trends often last longer than expected.
Be wary of news flow; get a thick skin toward the multitude of opinions presented.
Asset allocation is the key discipline to risk control; diversify broadly by asset class, country, style, etc.
You can?t win every time, but you can tilt the odds in your favor.
Use stop losses to limit losses. (I disagree. Use loss points to review your thesis, and if it is wrong, sell. Get a second opinion also. Otherwise, buy more.)
Rising dividends beat high dividends
Many strategies can work in the market; it?s more a question of when and how you apply them.
Macro forecasting rarely works.
Buying and holding the equity market tends to work over the long run, so have a core investment in the equity markets.
Humility is a core character attribute of good investors. (Be more like Charles Kirk, and less like Jim Cramer… he spends several pages on this.)

Beyond that, Mr. Davis gives lists of good investment books, good investment blogs (I?m not on his list, so it goes), quotations, and active managers. I thought his favorite active managers to be a very good list for those looking for active mutual funds. The investment books were generally classics, though some are too new to tell. As for the blogs, well, we are here today and gone tomorrow. We are only as good as the last few things we publish, so good financial blogging is not something that a book can capture. We vary too much.

Now for my one criticism. The book has one long chapter on index fund portfolios that takes up 20% of the book, and gives 28 models (with sub-models) for ?set it and forget it portfolios.? There are a couple of problems here: first, there are too many strategies here, and many don?t differ enough to deserve separate inclusion. Second, it would be better to spend more time on the factors behind why someone might choose one approach rather then another. What goes into creating a good asset allocation? How much should I have in bonds? Foreign bonds? Foreign equities? Cash? Obscure asset classes? I?m not asking for detailed math, but rules of thumb for average investors to follow, so that they could find a passive strategy that is among those strategies that would be more likely to meet their needs.

But with that one cavil, I can recommend this book to investors, particularly those that have not done well with active management. This book won?t teach you what to do, as much as how to think and discipline yourself. Most investors should limit their options in investing because their emotions and abilities aren?t suited to the violence of the markets.

For investors that do well with active management, you don?t need this book, but you might like it for the stories that he tells, or as a gift for relatives who need to follow a more passive style of investment management.

Full disclosure: I get a modest amount of money if you buy the book through the link above.

Book Review: The Aggressive Conservative Investor

Posted on 8 December 20079 December 2007 by David Merkel

I am a fan of value investing in all of its different variations, and so when I run across a book on the topic, particularly from a skilled practitioner, I buy it. I’ll do more book reviews on value investing, but one of the first that I wanted to do was Value Investing, by Marty Whitman.

So, I start looking around for my copy, and I can’t find it. Arrrgh, I can guess what happened. I lent it out, I can’t remember who I lent it to, but the borrower never gave it back to me. Annoyed at myself, I do notice a book that was just as good, The Aggressive Conservative Investor, by Marty Whitman and Martin Shubik. Even better, it is back in print, after being out of print for 20+ years.

So, what’s so great about the book? (Most of this applies to both books.) Marty Whitman has a strong “What can go wrong” approach. He realizes that he, and most other investors, will be outside passive minority investors. We only ride on the bus. The inside active control investors drive the bus, and if we are going to make money with reasonable safety, we have to understand the motives of those that control the companies. They benefit somewhat disproportionately from control. They receive wages and benefits that other shareholders do not receive, can gain cheap outside financing, and limit tax exposures, in addition to other benefits.

Like me, Whitman doesn’t care much for modern portfolio theory. More notable for a value investor, he has a few criticisms for the traditional “Graham-and-Dodd” type of value investing.

Typically, it works best for “going concern” situations, and not situations where activism could be necessary to unlock value. (Though, Graham did do things like that in his career; he just didn’t try to teach amateurs about it.)
He doesn’t always stick to high quality companies, if enough information can be obtained about the target. Information allows for more risk to be taken.

There are four things that he insists on in equity investments:

Strong financial position
Honest management that is creditor-aware and shareholder-oriented
Adequate disclosure of information relevant to the success of the company
The stock can be bought for less than the net asset value (adjusted book value) of the firm.

If you have these items in place, you won’t lose much, and if the management team makes value enhancing decisions, one can make a lot of money on the stock.

Whitman places a lot of stress on reading through the documents filed with the SEC. They may not be perfect, but managements know that they need to provide adequate disclosure of material information, or they could be sued. A lot gets revealed in SEC filings, and not every investor sees that.

He also places great stress on understanding the limitations of the accounting, whether under GAAP, Tax, or any other basis. Comparing the various accounting bases can sometimes illuminate the true financial well-being of a company. (Note: this is what killed me on Scottish Re. I should have questioned the GAAP profitability, when they never paid taxes.) He lists the underlying assumptions behind GAAP accounting, and explains how they can distort the estimation of economic value. Honestly, it is worse today in some ways than when he wrote the First Edition in 1979. GAAP accounting is more flexible, and less comparable across companies today.

Marty Whitman looks for situations where resources in a company can be used in a better manner, creating value in the process.

Is the company too conservatively financed? Perhaps borrowing money to buy back stock, or issuing a special dividend could unlock value.
Are there divisions that are undermanaged, or would fit better in another company?
Are management incentives properly aligned with shareholders?
Would the company be better off going private?
Is government regulation a help or a hindrance? (Barriers to entry)
Analyzing corporate structures for where the value is.

Beyond that, he explains how to calculate net asset values, as distinct from book values. He describes the problems with earnings as a value metric. He explains the value of dividends and other distributions. He also explains when it can make sense to own companies that are losing money. (Underlying values are growing in a way that the tax accounting basis does not catch.)

It’s a good book. Together with Value Investing, it gives you a full picture of how Marty Whitman thinks about value investing. He is one of the leading value investors of our time, but he has spent more time than most on the underlying theory. For those who want to think more deeply about value investing, Marty Whitman is a highly recommended read. For those wanting still more, read his shareholder letters here.

Full disclosure: if you use the links on this page to buyread books, I receive a small amount of money.

PS — Twelve years ago, I wrote Marty Whitman, begging to be one of his analysts. Though I didn’t get a response, I still admire him and his staff greatly.