Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Twitter bird happily surfs

Real Estate

• NYC’s biggest-ever office-to-housing conversion is opening in the Financial District at prices ranging from just over $1 million for a studio to $12.75 million for a four-bedroom spread https://t.co/sXCwHGAgC3  Nice, if you can afford it. Feb 24, 2023
• Home lenders are looking for ways to make 6% mortgages more appealing https://t.co/fOq3ulMZm0  Don’t do a buydown of the first-year interest rate. If you can’t afford the house on a level rate basis, don’t buy the house. What will you do when the rate rises? Feb 24, 2023
• That 3% Mortgage Just Keeps Getting Better https://t.co/mFcum8UPo1  Rather than prepay, invest prepayment money in higher-yielding safe bonds. If rates fall such it doesn’t work anymore, take the appreciated bonds and do a big prepayment Feb 24, 2023
• The US housing market lost the most value since 2008 https://t.co/qJYXFrPWp7  Has the FOMC forgotten the lessons of the Great Financial Crisis? Yes! Same errors that Bernanke committed… same certainty Feb 23, 2023
• A growing number of big office landlords are defaulting on their loans, reflecting high interest rates and the popularity of remote and hybrid work policies https://t.co/5LJIGtxPrn  Slow motion train wreck Feb 22, 2023
• Some people buying their first home will see their fees cut by about $800 a year under a new program that aims to address soaring borrowing costs https://t.co/ABVJpJfqj1  Make FHA loans more attractive by reducing the rate charged on mortgage insurance by 0.3% Feb 22, 2023
• A couple near Chicago sees investing in real estate as a way to boost their wealth. A financial pro offers advice https://t.co/lVFWXKktkX  No. Real estate is a business. Consider the value of your time, as you say you want to start a family. Buy shares in equity REITs instead. Feb 22, 2023
• Pyramid’s Crossgates Mall loans lurch toward default https://t.co/Xx2tiOqSR6  “Like most large malls across the U.S., the Crossgates business model has been crushed by the pandemic and changing shopping trends” Feb 21, 2023
• A growing number of big office landlords are defaulting on their loans, reflecting high interest rates and the popularity of remote and hybrid work policies https://t.co/5LJIGtxPrn  Office properties & lower quality retail will show increasing defaults Feb 21, 2023
• Europe’s property sector is springing cash calls and dividend cuts on shareholders. But investors in the financially stronger firms aren’t all smiles @hughes_chris https://t.co/nxWXx4cVWw  Effect is highest in Sweden, lowest in the UK Feb 21, 2023
• A California-based real-estate agent was arranging a deposit when she realized she was getting scammed. “My guy was ready to wire $70,000 to this escrow. Thank God he didn’t.” https://t.co/IRvY6Ap0fW  Bizarre real estate stories where crime was a factor. Feb 20, 2023

Odds & Ends

• Starbucks launches a range of olive oil-infused drinks in Italy to boost market share in a country where it’s struggled to gain a foothold https://t.co/qsDrYX3fHr  That will work? Feb 23, 2023
• Is tort reform in the Sunshine State even possible? https://t.co/xyLdMxeue8  Unlikely. By the state gov’t being too interventionist in market issues and yet allowing for too many tort claims to go to trial, the P&C insurance markets are broken in Florida Feb 23, 2023
• @michaelxpettis I said something like this yesterday, but not as well. Thanks. Feb 23, 2023
• The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether investor-protection laws were violated as stablecoins were issued https://t.co/PAF7eJnwfF  They are akin to deposit accounts in banking, and should be regulated that way. This one doesn’t belong to the SEC. Feb 23, 2023
• Social Security Myths That Won’t Die https://t.co/BFGmcGq9GE  Mostly correct, though there are some nuances that he misses. Worth a read. Feb 22, 2023
• The pandemic wiped out decades of gains by US students. Many parents are in the dark about how far their own kids must go to recover https://t.co/MKkoW2YSuK  One big error of the COVID era was not requiring an additional year of school for students, to make up for what they missed Feb 22, 2023
• Major brokerages and news media feature technical analysis https://t.co/D6REmikOvx  Pictures grab people, because they like patterns, whether intellectually defensible or not. Feb 21, 2023
• My tweet “Clouds moving rapidly west, with strong surface winds out of the south” s/b “Clouds moving rapidly east, with strong surface winds out of the south” But what a day, now it is “Clouds moving rapidly east, with strong surface winds out of the north” Feb 21, 2023
• The Perfect Retirement Investment Nobody Wants https://t.co/27PPPYbt3k  Life insurers have gotten badly burned on LTC. Many annuity companies don’t want to offer LTC. Agents don’t like Immediate Annuities because they never get another commission from the policyholder Feb 21, 2023
• Asda is rationing sales of fruit and vegetables after widespread shortages. Here’s what UK shoppers need to know https://t.co/x7ITKaOtuU  Effects of a bad growing season in N. Africa Feb 21, 2023
• Plains, Ga., has about 550 residents—including Jimmy Carter, who is receiving home hospice care. “When I heard the news my heart hurt to know that he was going through this.” https://t.co/3Q5eSEDV6s  Liberal Baptist became a most improbable President of the US Feb 20, 2023

Non-US

• Soaring onion prices are forcing governments to protect supplies https://t.co/QpkUL7EyZN  If you want to see riots, have poor people unable to afford moderately good food. Feb 25, 2023
• New Zealand’s recent cyclone shows “the importance of physical cash still in society today,” RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk says https://t.co/lxfSOZh3Th  You can’t have a society without physical currency Feb 25, 2023
• How India is shaking off its shackles and emerging as an economic power https://t.co/E7WETLSov6  This is wishful thinking. Cultures change slowly, and the Indian government is still pretty corrupt. Feb 23, 2023
• Iraq is planning to pay for private-sector imports from China in yuan, injecting foreign currency into the financial system to help ease pressure on the dinar https://t.co/IIQsGpJNbI  Will do little for the Iraq economy Feb 22, 2023
• Iran introduces fresh restrictions on foreign currency sales after a rush on euros and dollars weakened the rial to an all-time low of 500,000 against the greenback https://t.co/BCAg4mi3Om  Corruption, bad policy and sanctions create this hyperflation Feb 21, 2023
• Kazakhstan says local brokerages that snapped up Russian sovereign debt last year did so largely on behalf of clients who were Kazakh and Russian residents https://t.co/he4RkZaErR  Own Russian sovereign debt? There is liquidity in Kazakhstan. Feb 21, 2023
• Russian exports of discounted crude and fuel oil to China jumped to record levels as the re-opening of the world’s biggest energy importer gathers pace https://t.co/j6iiSMmeFT  The discounts to Brent for Urals ($13) and Espo ($8) Crude are smaller than what I have read in the past Feb 21, 2023
• Terrorists were blamed when explosives were found in an SUV parked outside the home of Mumbai’s richest man. The truth was far more alarming. https://t.co/ckyNmd6as8  Long article on entrenched police/political corruption. Another reason India will not develop Feb 21, 2023
• Japan promises radical spending to boost its birthrate. Will it work? https://t.co/judPpbjI0z  It probably won’t, but perhaps governments could reduce old-age social insurance payments to those who don’t raise children, making the systems solvent #thepunishmentfitsthecrime Feb 20, 2023

Portfolio Management

• Wagering on the bounce in stocks was always a long shot. Now it’s looking like a sucker’s bet https://t.co/Uy9U89wJBF  The problem is greater for growth stocks Feb 25, 2023
• “There’s a risk that the macro economy delivers results that markets are still woefully unprepared for,” Billionaire quant investor Cliff Asness warned https://t.co/1yPXSxPr4f  “the valuation gap between the priciest and cheapest stocks is still at the 94th percentile” #agree Feb 23, 2023
• The fixed-income market has become too bearish, too quickly https://t.co/4CyBDZevFM  Hard to say. There seems to be more demand to borrow on the long end of late. They may be wrong, but the long end of the bond market is rarely irrational. Feb 22, 2023
• Rajiv Jain is the opposite of Ark CEO Cathie Wood. He’s quietly built a stock-picking juggernaut by investing in old-school, out-of-favor companies https://t.co/JEYvyUM7WD  Difficult to get so many decisions right consistently. Feb 22, 2023
• The DJIA’s shake-up in the summer of 2020 dumped Exxon Mobil, Pfizer and Raytheon just as it was their turn to thrive https://t.co/QAnLl0umqv  The short-run effect of index inclusion/deletion is up/down, but the 2020 DJIA changes had the opposite performance over the next 2.6 yrs Feb 21, 2023
• Rising interest rates boosted corporate pensions last year. This year rising rates may boost costs. https://t.co/YctKh06Uxi  It doesn’t have to work this way. You can invest to immunize your pension costs against changes in interest rates. It’s not rocket science. Feb 20, 2023
• Biden’s SEC is coming for your investment account https://t.co/kTUj8hg9nQ  Actually, Gensler’s proposal would level the playing field, and create a fairer market structure for smaller investors. Why we have such a fragmented market system today astounds me. Feb 18, 2023

Economics

• “It’s everywhere.” A bird flu outbreak has led to the death of nearly 60 million farm-raised chickens, turkeys and ducks in the U.S. Farmers fear the virus is here to stay. https://t.co/3v2NvG5N5u  A greater proportion of laying hens have died vs chickens generally in the US. Feb 23, 2023
• Which explains why egg prices have risen so much more than chicken meat prices… https://t.co/eEyGIkUTVG  Feb 23, 2023
• The world’s largest trial of the four-day work week finds a majority of companies are making the shift https://t.co/hnAky9goEQ  Color me dubious Feb 21, 2023
• The rise of kitchen table economics https://t.co/Bo6nBxqnZB  Yes, contracts are too complex and construe everything in favor of the large corporations, but you don’t have to sign them unless you are getting enough value. Feb 21, 2023
• Letter: The economic conditions that make wars more likely https://t.co/NfubUHNC8R  “A plan is needed to regulate current account imbalances, which draws on John Maynard Keynes’s project for an international clearing union.” You really want near-fixed exchange rates? Feb 21, 2023
• Presidents are tweeting about it, and it’s featuring in election campaigns: Here’s how the world fertilizer crisis became political https://t.co/in7c4UVLgO  This is over shortages of potash & phosphate. Also trade issues stemming from a few wars and their related sanctions Feb 21, 2023

US Politics

• Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker said he’s willing to spend what it takes to keep Ron DeSantis & Donald Trump out of the White House https://t.co/V8cFk679HD  “Taking your eye off the ball.” I’ve done that. Neglects core responsibilities as governor to criticize national politicians Feb 25, 2023
• White House is considering two economists who in the Obama administration—Karen Dynan and Janice Eberly—as candidates to become the Federal Reserve’s vice chair https://t.co/IbgMLjjkiP  Please, not an economist. No academics. No former Fed or government lackeys. Feb 23, 2023
• The Defense Department and Microsoft are investigating an error that exposed military emails, highlighting the security risk of moving sensitive Pentagon data to the cloud https://t.co/w2YPXK9VCM  Happens to the best of us, and the government as well. Feb 23, 2023
• Biden’s Social Security Trap by @wjmcgurn https://t.co/o2c5ZSJQrV  There is no political will to solve OASDHI (Social Security). Thus in 2032, we will face a scenario like this: https://t.co/BXY54hjsoB  https://t.co/8YWKsnmZvX  Feb 21, 2023
• The PCAOB says it doesn’t have jurisdiction to monitor audits of privately held crypto firms. Some say there are ways to strengthen the board’s crypto oversight https://t.co/GUoKyWjYY6  Until you can say it is a deposit, commodity, or security, you don’t know how to regulate/audit Feb 21, 2023

Technology

• Germ-zapping lasers can help cut down on infections after surgery https://t.co/979qq9KSSu  Sounds promising. Feb 25, 2023
• How Rust went from a side project to the world’s most-loved programming language https://t.co/YvAvVy4H0K  Long read, but fascinating. Memory flaws are one of the biggest reasons for software crashes, and Rust eliminates that problem. Feb 24, 2023
• Apple is making major progress on a no-prick blood glucose monitoring system for its smartwatch https://t.co/fzN4nDBa1Q  Big stuff, if it works, which has been elusive so far Feb 23, 2023
• Ozempic’s popularity among people looking to lose weight has limited supplies for diabetes patients who depend on the drug to control their blood sugar https://t.co/2cFHjgLzjK  What is nice for those who want to lose weight is necessary for diabetics Feb 22, 2023
• Removing carbon from the air will be a key step in fighting climate change. But it’s plagued by problems https://t.co/IhFxHwvqYV  Interesting, if it genuinely does what they say it does Feb 20, 2023

China

• Xi Jinping is set to have more control in decisions over the financial system, with the likely revival of a powerful committee and a possible appointment of a key ally in the central bank https://t.co/eu2p8z2dpx  What good or bad comes from this is a mystery – ill-minded tinkering Feb 25, 2023
• Empty shipping containers pile up at packed Chinese port as orders dwindle https://t.co/3f8GPQ1By3  So much for the Chinese economic recovery Feb 21, 2023
• Thousands of Chinese Retirees Protest Government Cuts to Benefits https://t.co/8JmxGfyENx  Social Insurance plans fail when the ratio of workers to beneficiaries gets too low. Feb 21, 2023
• Any gains China might have anticipated from its embrace of Russia are hard to spot. But the costs are clear & growing https://t.co/F8wNl8ruWU  “Xi is trapped in a strategic dilemma, at the mercy of events. His erstwhile masterstroke is looking more and more like a losing bet.” Feb 21, 2023
• Pakistan’s creditors are demanding China take as big a haircut as them in any sovereign debt restructuring, perhaps bigger. It should @mihirssharma https://t.co/2wnXDsT4nW  If corruption is not ended, debt forgiveness won’t do much Feb 20, 2023

Companies

• Carvana’s disappointing quarterly results sent the online used-car dealer’s stock into freefall and triggered a string of warnings from analysts https://t.co/Pe6xrZjMBT  So much for showmanship $CVNA Feb 25, 2023
• BYD Most Likely Faked Its 2022 Sales Numbers, Real Ones Could Be Much Lower https://t.co/hpjoersddF  I have no idea, but if true, wow. Feb 24, 2023
• National Public Radio will reduce its staff by 10% after projecting a $30 million revenue shortfall for the coming year https://t.co/shgKfke3Xb  In the end, it is just a business, albeit a nonprofit. Good nonprofits care for their people and don’t overexpand during booms https://t.co/Tlzm6Habx1  Feb 23, 2023
• The EV question for auto executives is: How quickly should they make the shift to electric vehicles? https://t.co/8MaVClqMLB  The danger is in moving too fast on this. Let unsubsidized consumers decide. Feb 22, 2023
• Almost a decade ago, Elon Musk envisioned a passenger transit that moved at nearly the speed of sound. Where is it? https://t.co/rhGkIWdDSn  Hyperloop: Boring fantasy, not technology Feb 21, 2023

South Africa

• Eskom’s chairman says outgoing CEO behaved “reprehensibly” when he made accusations of theft and corruption within the state-owned electricity company https://t.co/dupwUx6T1U  Telling the truth is “reprehensible.” Coal thieves also a problem. Get ready for more blackouts. Feb 23, 2023
• South Africa’s rand rallies after the budget unveiled details of plans to deal with debt at the ailing state-run power utility Eskom https://t.co/TX3kvaN8PN  Unless you deal with corruption and crime surrounding Eskom, this is all for naught Feb 22, 2023
• South Africa’s finance minister will probably spend about five minutes of his budget speech Wednesday on Eskom — a tense 300 seconds for bondholders https://t.co/SBswUTR3G4  If you can’t end the corruption & sabotage regarding Eskom, the debt transfer won’t help South Africa Feb 21, 2023

Ukraine War

• As NATO’s military commander a decade ago, Admiral @StavridisJ worked productively with Russian generals. But Putin’s obstinance led to his doomed war in Ukraine https://t.co/73lA9K8J0B  The Russian military exists to make the French military look good Feb 23, 2023
• As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters year two & relations with China worsen, concerns persist over whether the US is ready to fight a war https://t.co/w2JbHsZNi0  “Every single person knows that what we’re doing is crazy,” said Ferrari. “But everybody is helpless to change it.” Feb 21, 2023
• Vladimir Putin should read the story of King Croesus. In fact, so should we all https://t.co/abmJ06n3qu  Almost no expected the current outcome. That said, many wars end in a stalemate. That seems to be what is happening now. Feb 20, 2023

Personal Finance

• Why don’t we talk about money? https://t.co/uYnJdKGDFs  Other reasons: looking bad by comparison, people may think you are arrogant because you have done well. I think children need to understand how the economics of the family works, so they can do it as well or better Feb 22, 2023
• Some parents aren’t waiting for retirement or urgent healthcare needs to move in with adult children https://t.co/EeBAGjFVHu  Think hard about this, and all the adults talk it through — who is in charge? How are bills paid? Privacy? There are many ways for this to go wrong. Feb 22, 2023
• Markets Weekend: When is a Banc not a bank? https://t.co/QoSdP3yFKx  When it offers bonds that function like deposit accounts. How Compound Banc could originate the loans mentioned does not make sense. Avoid. Avoid. AVOID! ht: @felixsalmon Feb 20, 2023

Adani Group

• The combined market value of Adani Group’s shares have just fallen below $100 billion https://t.co/qsNPOK1xGh  The question is how much liquidity they really have, versus maturing debts and needed working capital. Paying off a few debts w/scarce liquidity could backfire Feb 22, 2023
• Almost a month after a bombshell short seller report lopped off $132B in market value from Gautam Adani’s empire, the Indian billionaire has doubled down on his comeback strategy https://t.co/7RybNimFLC  Making a virtue of necessity, while capital costs skyrocket Feb 20, 2023
• Adani Group stocks have seen more than $132 billion of market value wiped out since the explosive Hindenburg Research report, but none is hit as bad as Adani Total Gas https://t.co/3j9MzDyK5S  What a chart https://t.co/nlK8PZNAKZ  Feb 20, 2023

Credit

• The $1.8 trillion student debt bubble is about to burst https://t.co/LPQAkME8BI  Do NOT borrow money to get a degree that will NOT give you the income to repay the debts. And don’t complain unless someone forced you to go to college & take on the debt Feb 25, 2023
• An office landlord tied to money manager Pimco has defaulted on $1.7 billion of mortgage notes https://t.co/xUCEuoGkfW  Becoming a self-reinforcing cycle of skittish lenders, defaults, sagging prices for offices. Feb 24, 2023
• A quirky German debt product is gaining fans around the world. Here’s what it is all about https://t.co/FvUnDBAfLJ  Illiquid promissory notes with low disclosure and no secondary market. I can see why borrowers like it, but all the lenders get is extra yield vs a traditional debt Feb 22, 2023