Category: Asset Allocation

Book Review: Think, Act, and Invest Like Warren Buffett

Book Review: Think, Act, and Invest Like Warren Buffett

Posted on by David Merkel

This is a tough book to review, because I generally respect the author, but there are many things I don’t like about the book.? Let’s start with the main one:

My friend Alice Schroeder came to speak to the Baltimore CFA Society early in November.? It was a great talk, and afterward, I took her back to the Amtrak station.? What was our main topic of conversation?? The many authors with limited or no dealings with Warren Buffett who invoke his name in order to get better sales.? I won’t name names.? I have relationships with a number of them.

I will review “The Snowball” soon.? Alice Schroeder spent around five years creating that lengthy book, and I can see why she would be upset over those that use Buffett for their own personal gain.

This book is another example of that.? Only chapters 1 and 2 have anything to do with Buffett, and there he is quoted extensively to the point where he should be listed as a secondary author, and get a cut of the royalties.? But in the next nine sections have almost nothing from Buffett; it is all the philosophy of Larry Swedroe.

Don’t get me wrong.? Larry Swedroe is a very bright guy, and worthy of being read.? But his philosophy is not that of Buffett.? Yes, Buffett said a number of things stressing that average investors should invest passively, because they have no information edge.? But that’s not what Buffett does himself.

I have written elsewhere that Buffett cannot be imitated by the rest of us (Part one, part two).? (For those reading me at Amazon, please come to Aleph Blog to get links.)? Buffett buys whole companies.? Few of us can do that.? Buffett has a holding company that produces the ability to fund investments cheaply.? None of us have that, and this book by Larry Swedroe, does not even touch on the most powerful and distinct things that Buffett does to earn returns.

Chapters three and beyond are really basic stuff that average people should do to manage their investments wisely.? Larry Swedroe is great with that sort of thing. But it has nothing to do with Buffett.

That’s the main thing that irritates me here.? Don’t put Buffett in the title if the book is not about Buffett.? This book is not about Buffett, it is about how average people should manage what excess assets they have.

Now, all that said, if you read the personal finance section of my blog (which is free) you won’t gain any additional insights from this book, and you won’t pay any money either.? That said, giving a book like this to a friend who doesn’t get the management of assets could be very good for him.? Show a man a website, and he ignores it.? But a physical book — he might read it.

Quibbles

Swedroe does not get corporate bonds.? They are valuable during the bull phase of the credit cycle.? Those of us that follow the credit cycle make excess returns as a result.? You have to be opportunistic and disciplined to do this.? Yes, corporate bonds are hybrid investments — part equity, part guarantee.? But intelligent investors can do well with corporate bonds — it is much less efficient than the stock market.

Also, he overestimates the number of stocks needed to diversify a portfolio on page 68.

On page 77, he engages in data-mining to show what would have worked best in the past, which has no relevance to what will work well in the future.

On page 113, he tells a story from “Time Management for Dummies,” without attribution.

On pages 126-7, he errs, because risk and reward are not correlated.? Also, high yields usually portend risk, but that is not always true.

Finally, on page 131, he is too absolutist on corporate bonds.? Most of the time, it might be better to hold stocks and Treasury bonds, but there are times when corporate bonds are mispriced in a panic, and it is time to buy them.

Who would benefit from this book: ? If you want basic book on asset allocation for average people, this could have value.? If you want to imitate Buffett, this book will not help you in the slightest. If you want to, you can buy it here:Think, Act, and Invest Like Warren Buffett.

Full disclosure: I asked the publisher for the book, and he sent it.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

On Time Horizons

On Time Horizons

Posted on by David Merkel

Why are time horizons important?? Because people have future goals that they want to meet.? We typically invest money today because we have some need that we are trying to meet in the future, whether that is college expenses, retirement, or some other less common need.? Institutionally, that could be funding a charitable endowment, a pension plan, or the liabilities of a life insurer (or other insurer, but life liabilities are long).

Most retail investment advice is short-term in nature: the analyst has determined that something good or bad will happen in the short-run, so buy or go short now, respectively.? In general, such investment advice has not worked out well.? Why?? For the most part, it is very difficult to time corporate events.? It is better to try to gauge longer-term prospects, and invest accordingly — but that means you have to have no need for the assets in the short-run.? As is said in many places, you are only investing what you can afford to lose.

Few invest that way, because it is in our nature to be jumpy.? We look for short-term gains when we should be patient.? Many stocks are like crops that may take years to mature.? Yes, if you get the timing right, you can do far better, assuming you have better places to reinvest.? Making a clever move is one thing, but a series of clever moves is tough.? Investing is easy, but changing horses, and selling and buying to make a big kill is tough.

Now bonds offer more precision on time horizons.? Invest today, and barring default, your principal comes back at maturity. With equities, we rely on arguments that over the long run equities don’t lose money.? There is nothing structural to support this; ask the Japanese if they agree.? (I could comment on equity markets that have gone out of existence for a time, but I refrain.)

At present, the CAPE10 and Q-ratio indicate that stocks are not likely to return a lot over the next 10 years.? The same is true of most high-quality bond investments.? Also, true of most high-yield investments when expected losses are netted out.

In an over-indebted world, the marginal efficiency of capital is low — we need a certain amount of bad businesses to fail, so that capital can be reallocated to ventures that are more promising.? No one likes failure in the short-run, but it yields good results in the long-run — more promising ideas get capital.

We don’t need more houses, banks, autos, etc.? The bailouts were a failure because they perpetuated a part of the economy that was in oversupply.? Thus we have had a weak recovery.

Back to time horizon.? I am not crazy about buying bonds here.? The risk-reward is awkward, but the same is true of stocks.? That said, the variability on stocks is greater normally, but with rates so low, it may be similar.

If this does not sound optimistic, you understand me well.? Perhaps that means that cash, gold, or foreign currency bonds might be better, though I have my doubts on foreign bonds.

I’m going to keep doing what I always do.? I buy cheap, well-capitalized stocks, in industries that are out of favor.? I manage money with a view to holding stocks for 3-5 years.? Though it has not worked well for me recently, it has worked well in the past, and I will pursue my opportunities there.

 

The Rules, Part XXXIV

The Rules, Part XXXIV

Posted on by David Merkel

“Once something is used for hedging purposes, it becomes useless for predictive purposes.”

I know this is kind of a trivial insight now, but when I originally wrote it, it was more cutting-edge.? That said, it is still not fundamentally understood by most.? Most still look at a fragment of the puzzle.? Few look at the whole.

My poster-child for fragmentary thinking is this article: The end of stock market crashes? Do I disagree that correlations begin rising among risky assets toward the end of a bull market?? Not at all.? I have even written about it on occasion.

But if few understand this, then only a few will take shelter when correlations get high.? The rest will continue the disorderly party until the “market cops” show up in the bear market.

If it becomes a widespread idea, a market rule, etc., it may constrain behavior for some time, leading to no large crashes, but after a long while with no crashes some will assume that such crashes are not possible, and the rule is out-of-date.? Four? examples:

  • Stocks should yield more than Treasury bonds.
  • Stocks should yield more than 3%.
  • Q-ratio
  • CAPE10

Many items that have intermediate-term wisdom, and are known to have that wisdom, eventually get ignored.? The first two I listed were common market nostrums in their day.? The second seem to have more long-term validity, but get ignored by many who say, “It’s different this time!”

But even if everyone agrees that a certain risk measure is a correct risk measure, and it becomes a part of the market’s furniture, that doesn’t mean risk ceases.? It does mean risk takes a different form.? I think of all of the people decided not to take equity risk during 2000-2007, and decided to invest in residential real estate, or take risk through CDOs, subprime RMBS, etc.

Yes, they avoided risk in the stock market.? They ran into something far more fundamental.? The risk from all risky assets, public, private, leveraged, unleveraged, is everywhere, and it is very difficult to hide while taking risk.

The markets incorporate a lot of rules that have partial validity.? They are known variably, and apply variably.? At some points these rules seem sharp and prescient.? At other times they seem weak and outmoded.

This brings me back to my view that the market is an ecosystem where no strategy has permanent validity.? Strategies ebb and flow as many parties search for scarce returns.? There are well-known limits to markets, like the Q-ratio and CAPE10.? If the markets come up with another one, like risky asset correlations, it will have validity, restraining speculative behavior, until people overwhelm it, and a new bust happens.

The boom-bust cycle cannot be repealed.? But it takes many forms.

 

Match Assets and Liabilities

Match Assets and Liabilities

Posted on by David Merkel

?Good investing stems from matching assets to the eventual need to pay cash at a future date.? True for individuals and institutions.?

So I said yesterday.? A few people said to me that I needed to expand on that, and so now I expand.

The most common error in mismatching investment horizons is borrowing short to own long assets.? We institutionalize this in the banking sector, though I believe it is a policy error to do so.? Deposits should finance working capital, and not fixed capital.? Long-term assets should be financed by long-dated loans or equity.

When you borrow on a short-term basis, where the terms are not locked-in, to buy a long dated asset, you take the risk that financing terms could move against you, changing that you can no longer hold the asset.? This happens in asset bubbles, particularly toward the end.

It happens because it is the cheapest type of finance in the short-run, but often the most costly in the long run.? Someone who pays up, and locks in lending terms for the life of the asset has far more predictability.

This is one reason why I try to analyze lending terms when analyzing manias.? Typically, manias occur when enough people are willing to buy and finance a lot of it short term.

But, the opposite sometimes happens.? There are some that will borrow long to invest short.? We saw that in 2009-10, when companies were borrowing long to insure liquidity.? Maybe you can consider it an insurance premium to make sure you stay alive as a company.

I have two other examples, both from the third insurance company that I worked for.? In the middle of my time there, the company hired a consultant to analyze the investment policy of the company.? The analyst had a big name, and he found that the company as a whole was mismatched short by two years.

If you are a well-run life insurer, you are either matched or as much as two years long.? (I think a one-year gap between assets and liabilities is optimal, and so does Pimco.)? It was a free lunch to lengthen the portfolio ? returns increase, and risks decrease.

Sadly, or happily, depending on how you view it, in the annuity line of business that I was running two years later, after the first annuity withdrawal study was complete (one year ahead of the Society of Actuaries study, which mimicked my approach), I realized that the long-term guaranteed rates were significant, and I realized that the asset portfolio should be lengthened to reflect that.

I remember the investment department questioning me regarding putting 20% of annuity assets into 30-year bonds, and I said, ?They hedge us against the long term guarantees.?? They bought in, and it was another example where there was a free lunch ? increase in income, decrease in cash flow risk.

On Investment Policy

This is why my most important question for investors is ?When do you need the cash??? There is a gradation of approaches for maximizing returns with reasonable certainty in investing, and the approaches vary as the time horizon expands.

To all investors: try to match your investment strategy to the time that you need the money.

Book Review: How To Really Ruin Your Financial Life and Portfolio

Book Review: How To Really Ruin Your Financial Life and Portfolio

Posted on by David Merkel

Before I start, a thanks to all of my readers who have voted on my reviews. Note: if you have voted on many of my reviews favorably, further votes won’t help.? Amazon limits the effects of fans.? Onto the book:

For those unfamiliar with Ben Stein, he has done a series of books on “How to Ruin…” for example: How to Ruin Your Life and How to Ruin Your Financial Life. I have not read either of those two books, but after a glance at the table of contents of each book, I can say that what he wrote there is right, even if it is short.

If you can avoid making wrong moves, right moves will occur on average.

But… most of this is simple commonsense stuff reported from a negative angle.? If you have read the personal finance category at my blog, you would know what he has written and far more, and it is free.

There is no bad advice in this book, if you understand that it is offering you bad advice.? By telling you you to do stupid things, it incites you to do what is right.

Quibbles

The book is not worth $12 to those with a reasonable understanding of the markets.? It is worth a lot to the uninformed who think they know something but don’t.? This is a book you give; it is not a book that you buy.

Who would benefit from this book: ? This is the sort of book that you give as a gift to your clueless brother-in-law.? It has value there, to raise the awareness of those who are destroying their financial lives.? If you want to, you can buy it here: How To Really Ruin Your Financial Life and Portfolio.

Full disclosure: The publisher sent me a hard copy of the book, without my asking.

If you enter Amazon through my site, and you buy anything, I get a small commission.? This is my main source of blog revenue.? I prefer this to a ?tip jar? because I want you to get something you want, rather than merely giving me a tip.? Book reviews take time, particularly with the reading, which most book reviewers don?t do in full, and I typically do. (When I don?t, I mention that I scanned the book.? Also, I never use the data that the PR flacks send out.)

Most people buying at Amazon do not enter via a referring website.? Thus Amazon builds an extra 1-3% into the prices to all buyers to compensate for the commissions given to the minority that come through referring sites.? Whether you buy at Amazon directly or enter via my site, your prices don?t change.

 

Set it and Forget it

Set it and Forget it

Posted on by David Merkel

This post is directed at people who don’t get the markets.? People who think they they are experts can stop reading now.

I’m the Chairman of the Pension Board of the Reformed Presbyterian Church of North America.? Yes, that long-lived but small denomination that never went through the controversies of modernism, still teaching that Jesus Christ rules everything on earth NOW, and we exclusively sing the psalms of David without accompaniment in our worship.

Here is something that is no surprise: most pastors who are serious students of Scripture don’t get financial markets.? Truth, that is true of most people who know their technical crafts, but don’t get how financial markets work.

What I am about to say should work for most people who don’t get investing — choose a blend of risky and less-risky assets.? Ask your self this question: how much are you willing to lose in a year at worst as a percentage of assets? Take that amount and multiply it by 2.0-2.5.? That is the maximum amount that you should allocate to risky assets.? (Strangely, that mostly corresponds to the current margin rules.)

Average people can’t monitor the markets, and even if they did, they would not know what to do.? Far better that they “set it and forget it,” than that they panic when things are are going bad, or get greedy when things are running hot.

Thus we encourage the pastors to buy blended funds.? I encourage them to buy one notch down on their risk tolerances, because the return give-up is small, but the likelihood of them not panicking is large.

For those who are uninformed, that is important.? Buy-and-hold is a good strategy if maintained at a risk level that avoids panic.

Now. I’m not crazy about the market at present.? I would shade allocations to the 2.ox side of risk, not the 2.5x side.? But what we have found at the pension board of the RPCNA is that the pastors do best who choose a blended fund that they can stick with through tough times.

My own pastor is squeamish with investing, but I looked at what he “should” do in investing, and told him to dial it back one notch.? It has been to his benefit.? He has not panicked, and has made decent money over the last 10 years.

Thus to summarize: estimate your willingness to lose money over a year, and size your allocation to risky assets appropriately.

Got Cash? (Part 2)

Got Cash? (Part 2)

Posted on by David Merkel

In the first part of this irregular series, I tried to point out the value of having some slack assets should attractive opportunities present themselves.

I try to raise cash in my equity strategy as valuations rise.? I try to reduce cash as valuations fall.? It doesn’t work perfectly, but I do think it reduces risk, and it might improve returns.

Buffett also views cash as valuable.? He views it as a call option on other assets, as is noted in these two articles.? With cash, your downside is limited — you can just sit and wait for a good opportunity.? In one sense, if you wait too long, the opportunity cost of cash could be significant, but over most 5-year periods there is a drawdown in asset prices that avail good opportunities.

Cash gives you options, perhaps not options in the same sense as “puts and calls,” but options in the sense of choices that are easily achieved.? Particularly for Buffett, who is the choice of many who want to exit their private business, and want their culture/friends to survive, rather than receiving top dollar as a sales price.

Even as the Fed tries to make cash less attractive to hold, it is still valuable to those that prize flexibility.? That is the virtue of cash, and it is impossible to erase.

Broken Ruler

Broken Ruler

Posted on by David Merkel

Sorry for the lack of publishing recently.? I have not been feeling well.? Not sure what it is, but I am feeling a little better now.

Under normal circumstances, where a few defaults don’t threaten the whole economic system, and the government is running close to a balanced budget, and the Fed isn’t in a liquidity trap that they themselves created, there are relationships that are useful for analyzing value in the markets.

During those times the slope of the yield curve tells you a lot, and credit spreads tell you a lot as well.? But when the Fed tries to incite yield lust through QE, with Fed funds near zero, all of those relationships end.? The same is true for those who rely on yield curve slope to indicate likelihood of recession or expansion.

These are not normal times.? Yield spread relationships do not reflect risk differentials.? Collateralized Loan and Debt Obligations have returned.? That indicates we are in the final phase of this credit cycle.? When we begin to lever up junk credit, we have 2-3 years to go or so, before the credit cycle crests.? The issuance of junk bonds has reached new highs, and again, defaults will take 2-3 more years to ripen.? Like 2005-2007, the credit ratings for the junk being issued are more weighted to single-B and CCC debt, rather than BB debt.? 2015 could shape up to be really interesting.

For now, does that mean we play on, given that the credit cycle has been seemingly repealed?? Maybe.? If we’re only talking about junk bonds, what matters is being conservative at the time of crisis.? Junk bonds rarely trade off in a slow manner.

The tough question is what impacts the big four economic problems will have on asset returns:

1) Does the Eurozone centralize, dissolve, or muddle interminably?

2) Does China’s GDP growth slow dramatically, or even shrink, or respond to “stimulus?”

3) Does aging Japan finally have difficulty rolling over government debt at low rates?

4) How does the US emerge from long-term unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies?

5) How does the rest of the world deal with most of the large powers attempting to cheapen their currencies, thus forcing them to let their currencies rise, or import loose monetary policy?

Okay, five problems… the point is that when few are pursuing sustainable policies globally, it is difficult to make plans, because there are few historical analogies to guide us.

This is partly a problem because when there does not seem to be anything that is risk-free offering a positive nominal return, investors are even more prone to make subpar investment decisions, because a risk-free asset is needed to allow investors to tune their risk levels.? Retail investors, and most professionals would have a hard time with all assets being risky.

As for me at a time like this, I am trying to manage by avoiding companies that carry too much financing risk, and those with ill-defined business models.? Sometimes it works better, but while the financing bubble expands, I fear my caution is ill-rewarded.

My motto is “safe and cheap.”? I will keep doing this; it does not mean that I will always win, but it does mean that I will likely win in the long run. Lord helping me.

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Eurozone

 

  • ECB Collateral Moves Reopen ?Soup Kitchen? for Struggling Banks http://t.co/CMMkeby9 Euros available in exchange 4 marginal collateral $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Jobless Greeks Resolved to Work Clean Toilets in Sweden http://t.co/EqGuottV Really a sad tale; another way of saying EZone has failed $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Euro: Looks like a duck, quacks like a duck http://t.co/R3y7uG5J Axel Merk argues that current Eurozone troubles will create US Europe $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Draghi Says Officials Agree on ECB Unlimited Bond-Buying http://t.co/Cyn0tu9O The conditionality will eventually render it ineffective $$ Sep 06, 2012
  • Fears Rising, Spaniards Pull Out Their Cash and Get Out of Spain http://t.co/EMT40EQK When times get tough, people leave. More in Spain $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Perhaps the Irish economy is rebounding.? Maybe the banks are next? $$ http://t.co/fN5Cyfj4 Sep 05, 2012
  • Two Tears for Two-Tiers http://t.co/YuLV0vnN Will Mario Draghi really create an expensive market for <3yr Spanish & Italian debt? $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • ECB bond-buying would not breach rules-Draghi http://t.co/9iaSdGnn Of course not pooky. Buying the short debt will draw u2 long debt l8r $$ Sep 04, 2012

 

Politics

 

  • California Treasurer Backs Law to Ban Costly Long-Term Bo [sic] http://t.co/P5U2f7DC Capital Appreciation Bonds are expensive 2 issuers $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • We’re Not Out Of Money http://t.co/FKDSbBAM There may not be an economic limit on printing $$ but a political limit when inflation arrives Sep 05, 2012
  • Top Bank Lawyer?s EMails Show Washington?s Inside Game http://t.co/4sSYxs4n Former SEC Commissioner Annette Nazareth uses her influence $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Suits Challenge Classrooms That Segregate Boys, Girls http://t.co/zHiCmchK My brother ran a school for boys; much better than co-ed $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Fed’s unemployment target is unrealistic http://t.co/1edPuBTC Global labor competition will keep unemployment high, until exports get big $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • The Clinton Administration did not offer as much public debt, Social Security was running its largest… http://t.co/mySuAvk1 Sep 05, 2012
  • As I said with the Republican Convention, I am very glad that I don’t own a TV. I would rather consider the merits than emotional appeals $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • They grow so fast, treasure them while you can $$ RT @TheStalwart: The Obama daughters have aged a lot. http://t.co/2IguOJdj Sep 05, 2012
  • A radical tax plan the left and right can agree on http://t.co/84PA1xpp Cut corporate tax rates & eliminate all special preferences $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • If You Think Obama?s First Term Was Bad, Imagine a Second http://t.co/4iFeFAfc Same applies to Romney; we will have gridlock either way $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Why Bernanke has become irrelevant http://t.co/dN9b6kVP Inflating financial assets also inflates financial liabilities &so it does little $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Putin to Raise Government Retirement Age to 70 http://t.co/TtluvkN0 We should also. Y should young ppl subsidize oldsters who could work Sep 04, 2012
  • The Democrats? Version of Mediscare http://t.co/rRUwEf7s Agreement btw Reps & Dems: cut medicare. The Q is how to do it? $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Long term real rates in the US hit record lows http://t.co/WQns2veU Can you say “financial Repression,” boys & girls? I thought you could $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Gloria Romero: Trials of a Democratic Reformer http://t.co/Hblx3Plk Unions (SEIU, CTA, the CA school employees) dominate $$ in Sacto $$ Sep 01, 2012
  • California Lawmakers Send Public-Pension Cutback to Brown http://t.co/pn3uXnjj First, prospective change, next retrospective on actives $$ Sep 01, 2012
  • The duopoly doesn’t like interlopers playing on their turf $$ RT @LaurenLaCapra: Why Is Gary Johnson Being Ignored? http://t.co/qgXnrC49 Sep 01, 2012

The Markets

 

  • Asset Allocation & Portfolio Management: Is the Industry Shifting to a New Paradigm? http://t.co/u69lGilE 2 complex; parameters unstable $$ Sep 08, 2012
  • Student Loans: Debt for Life http://t.co/sd4aNaDo With student loans not dischargable in bankruptcy many students end up debt-slaves $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Commodities Beat Stocks, Bonds for Second Month in August http://t.co/3Ydp0q3t Anticipated inflation (via TIPS) rising over last 2 months $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Should You Wade In With a Windfall? http://t.co/lprP4FbX A perpetual debate; best to decide on your asset allocation and invest $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Are You Making Too Much Money? http://t.co/5uoVQMTF Cramer points out that when a strategy is working too well -> greater prob of blowup $$ Sep 01, 2012

 

Lenders, Insurers, and Housing

 

  • Hedge funds face autumn uncertainty http://t.co/lbTBS8Rx Hard not to be uncertain when deficits are high, monetary policy loose, & EZone $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • With Lax Regulation, a Risky Industry Flourishes Offshore http://t.co/C3RUhCQD Bermuda reinsurers r better managed than largest US banks $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Assessing Fannie’s Past and Future http://t.co/v5c8Y2QS Sadly, ending the role of the US Govt in lending $$ is not a listed option. Sep 04, 2012
  • Home Prices Are Not Rebounding as Fast as You Think http://t.co/qrYYciDr Market will have to digest a lot of dark supply, post-bottom $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Breaking Up Banks Is Hard With Traders Hooked on Deposits http://t.co/CtcyqaiH WIll b made up reducing diseconomies of scale $$ #breakthem Sep 04, 2012
  • Bad headline: Nine Insurers Boast Gains On Facebook Positions http://t.co/8rsBZfe1 Read the story: most insurers owning $FB lost $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Big Banks Are Hazardous to U.S. Financial Health http://t.co/8CxiiLqb Implicit promise of US rescue allows large banks to finance cheap $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Fighting financial complexity with simple rules? http://t.co/nU1ypbgK Limit leverage, interconnectedness, analyze risk-based liquidity $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Ranking the Largest U.S. Banks: M&T No. 17 With a Bullet http://t.co/dBLM8EBY Look at how large the top 4 r relative to everyone else $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Index points to new dawn for US housing http://t.co/c04HLluw There is a lot of dark supply to clear, but bottom has passed on low end $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • Melbourne Hasn?t Seen Worst of Housing Drop as Glut Builds http://t.co/wJRlFbeR I’m sure glut is temporary, “Contained” & banks r fine 😉 Sep 01, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Shale Boom Cuts Gulf Oil Premium to 24-Year Low http://t.co/O738xxOI Whouda thunk oil production would increase in the US? $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • “Green energy ‘is a big area of unfulfilled promise,'” aka “crazy inefficient dreaming.” Send them to study physics $$ http://t.co/VAsgEdVz Sep 04, 2012
  • RE: Natural gas prices have fallen; that is most of the new energy produced. Little oil so gasoline prices stay high. http://t.co/XCZBTmSR Sep 03, 2012

?

Other

 

  • Stanford researchers’ cooling glove ‘better than steroids’ & helps solve physiological mystery, too http://t.co/D5CqAU9x Muscles overheat $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • FBI vs. Google: The Legal Fight to Unlock Phones http://t.co/i2VbdISV Interesting that $GOOG resists requests 4 smartphone passwords $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Malware attacks on the rise http://t.co/fzKcSqe8 Now coming to a handheld device near you. Try to decide on a ransom strategy early $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • Awkward Belly Dance for Groupon http://t.co/sCxGrpKo As if $GRPN doesn’t have enough troubles, two large founders back a competitor $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • China, Germany plan to settle more trade in yuan, euros http://t.co/DFtNGvxi Settling $$ doesn’t matter, where proceeds r invested matters Sep 03, 2012
  • The Federal Reserve: From Central Bank to Central Planner http://t.co/YQxbQLq2 The more tasks we give to the Fed, the worse they do $$ Sep 03, 2012
  • You Can’t Trust Airport Security http://t.co/TWGMUwP1 Security systems must balance risks of false positives vs missing positives $$ Sep 03, 2012

?

BloombergView Hypocrisy

  • You Pick: a Strong Recovery or an Accountable Fed? http://t.co/VhxdKBH1 The Fed could b genuinely transparent & the economy prosperous $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Republicans Must Choose: Less Debt or More Jobs? http://t.co/qkV2TPAU The 2r not related. Proceeds of debt do not lead2 hiring necessarily Sep 05, 2012
  • @bloombergview , master of the false dichotomy headline: Republicans Must Choose: Less Debt or More Jobs? http://t.co/qkV2TPAU $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • @bloombergview , master of the false dichotomy headline: “You Pick: a Strong Recovery or an Accountable Fed?” http://t.co/VhxdKBH1 Sep 05, 2012

?

Retirement

 

  • Big Firms a Drag on Pension Funds http://t.co/Q1hchNbH Returns at larger private equity funds have lagged their smaller brethren $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • Retirement security is a big problem — especially for the young http://t.co/DxTcvg4O The developed world lives in a fantasy re: retirement Sep 05, 2012
  • San Jose Cops Rush Disability Retirement Bids as Rules Tighten http://t.co/jSKWSiaQ & I’ll bet the actuary never priced 100% disability $$ Sep 05, 2012

 

Follow

  • #FF @cabaum1 @HousingWire @journalistjosh @LizRappaport @CardiffGarcia @simonconstable @agnestcrane @WSJTheSource @maoxian @jsphctrl $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • #FF @footnoted @LSPollack @MattGoldstein26 @munilass @williamalden @JeffreyMatthews @PragCapitalist @neilbarofsky @MKTWBurton @petereavis $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • @lv_1 I’m doing 1 of these per day listing my favorite tweeps, some of which are lesser known; last group is mostly economics Sep 06, 2012
  • It’s not Friday, but please follow: @GonzaloLiraSPG @rajivatbarnard @John_Hempton @SoberLook @groditi @unstructuredfin @historysquared $$ Sep 06, 2012
  • It’s not Friday but please follow: @finemrespice @prchovanec @vshih2 @BoydRoddy @dpinsen @niubi @manualofideas @wesbury @merrillmatter $$ Sep 03, 2012

?

Retweets

  • A permanent problem in a dynamic language $$ RT @BloombergView: These are sad times for grammatical purists | http://t.co/Se0XfLCD Sep 07, 2012
  • RT @DennisDMZ: Obama thanked Biden for being “the best VP I could have hoped for.” Proof that America really has become the land of dimi … Sep 07, 2012
  • Their headlines mislead more than most RT @LaurenLaCapra: This Bloomberg headline is not only weird, but questionable. http://t.co/0CKK9ATE Sep 05, 2012
  • Worth a read $$ RT @TheStalwart: This strikes me as an interesting contribution to the profit margins debate. http://t.co/Bt5S9ZrF Sep 05, 2012
  • RT @PlanMaestro: Very good takedown of Taibbi’s Bain Capital piece. There is a story in there just not this one http://t.co/he0VaYo4 @da … Sep 05, 2012
  • Oops $$ RT @SecurityTube: [News] BitCoin Exchange Loses $250,0000 [sic] After Unencrypted Keys Stolen http://t.co/Yt2l7bp3 Sep 05, 2012
  • How many divisions does Draghi have? MT @TheStalwart: The Most Powerful Man In The World Is Going To Speak Tomorrow. So Is Barack Obama $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • Also worth a look $$ RT @_TPR: One of my favorite tables: Shadow Banking Depositors. The plumbing. http://t.co/i6UVAJan Sep 05, 2012
  • Worth a look $$ RT @_TPR: Another: Credit-Maturity Transformation Spectrum http://t.co/F98xEbgP Sep 05, 2012
  • RT @NickTimiraos: CoreLogic index shows that home prices are now 1.3% above Jan 2009 level. Down 0.7% from June 2010 (tax credit induced … Sep 04, 2012
  • RT @TheStalwart: RT @conorsen: @TheStalwart @diana_olick You should probably have

an auto-RT app for Diana’s stuff. Sep 04, 2012

  • RT @ReformedBroker: As the politicians descend on Charlotte, Carolinians come face to face with more pork than they’ve ever pulled. #DNC2012 Sep 04, 2012
  • Good one, made me smile. $$ RT @pdacosta: This euro crisis thing is really Draghing out. Sep 03, 2012
  • My but Congress was farsighted to recognize a banking benchmark & celebrate! $$ RT @ReformedBroker: HAPPY LIBOR DAY EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sep 03, 2012
  • RT @mbusigin: You know what’s going to happen? People going to pile into Risk Parity strategies just in time for yield volatility modera … Sep 01, 2012
  • RT @simonconstable: ?@Mctaguej: Connaughton is a loyal Democrat–but he pulls no punches in his expose of Obama’s failure to pursue Wall … Sep 01, 2012
  • RT @Convertbond: Thought we had an aging population Ben Bernanke? How many jobs have been lost because 150 mln baby boomers are earning … Sep 01, 2012

 

Comments

  • @BradErvin1 Fair point; we have skills mismatch here as well, & income differences among regions; not as pronounced though, adjusts better Sep 08, 2012
  • @crampell My son thanks you for that article. He runs and the trainers ice him down after practice; going to show it to his coach Sep 07, 2012
  • @ToshibaEric Thanks 4 replying. Talked to 10 people @ Toshiba before I got someone to send me a free mailing box for repairs ~ 2 hours $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • @toshiba also aggravating sitting on hold, getting dropped three times, and representatives hiding behind the legalese Sep 07, 2012
  • @toshiba Really aggravating dealing with your phone support for a new computer that fails on day one, and you do not offer replacement $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • ‘ @Fullcarry It’s kind of like the “pop” that happens when a distressed credit does an equity offering in order to survive. $$ Sep 07, 2012
  • @niubi Perhaps because that would be blocked. China does not want people 2know how much diverse information 2which they do not have access Sep 07, 2012
  • @credittrader The cash he receives will be used to collateralize an account invested in stock index futures $$ 😉 #nevercashonsidelines Sep 05, 2012
  • @moorehn Could we pass a law that all politicians have to write their own speeches, so that they say is more likely what they really think? Sep 05, 2012
  • @_TPR Okay, so I have missed something. I trust Bermuda; I do not trust Ireland as a regulator. Who has moved? $$ Sep 05, 2012
  • @finemrespice Some technological breakthroughs e.g. http://t.co/F4jeyerr, but no 1 mentions costs. Technical efficiency <> Econ progress $$ Sep 04, 2012
  • I just left a comment in “How Pimco?s Gross beats the average bond fund – Mutual Understanding – MarketWatch” http://t.co/Nfq2s7Un Sep 04, 2012
  • We need a new misery index that includes the future pain of present borrowing. At least Carter kept… http://t.co/honmBXQ5 Sep 04, 2012
  • 2, 4, and 6 are not myths. The others are. There are limits to what the government can do. They must tax or… http://t.co/JPa4IGqW Sep 04, 2012
  • Alas, modern worship, odious to God. Bring back a cappella singing of Psalms, like the ancient church.? Also, giving ? http://t.co/OBAwBJnx Sep 04, 2012
  • It is rational for lower-level German politicians to say Greece must leave the Euro. It is what an average German be? http://t.co/6UUYd6e9 Sep 04, 2012

 

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Sorted Weekly Tweets

Posted on by David Merkel

Politics

 

  • Bernanke Letter Defends Fed Actions http://t.co/COYtCtzg Hope the election brings enough change that we end up w/a fresh Fed Chairman $$ Aug 25, 2012
  • Private equity tax questions for Mitt Romney http://t.co/hXaAu0sR 1) Carried interest 2) Corporate interest deductions 3)Mgmt fee waivers $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Sorry, Henry Blodget, You’re Wrong About Election 2012 http://t.co/5DghXuzI Religious Conservatives r viewed as suckers 2 support the GOP $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Obama Supporter Suggests Anti-Mormon Whisper Campaign http://t.co/ism2YbbR Too obvious. Democrats pay Evangelicals to describe Mormonism $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • The Treasury?s Oversimplified View of Its Mortgage Relief Effort http://t.co/cwm1rrX8 The program did wonderful things… for the banks $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Top six myths about Medicare http://t.co/qKYGtsLT Mostly correct but #3 brings lower quality & #6 is wrong, see: http://t.co/WvPr4giZ $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • White House Worked With Buyout Firm to Save Plant http://t.co/KPKHvZC5 Government help to get deals done begets more of the same $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Consider keeping Bernanke, top Romney adviser says http://t.co/3Kp575gA This is rhetoric, if Romney is elected, Hubbard will chair Fed $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Is BUBB (breaking up the big banks) now a ?conservative imperative? ? http://t.co/exRI726x I like $BAC so much; there should b 50 of them $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Why Democrats think taxes will need to rise by more than 50% http://t.co/VUlfCM6K Entitlements will drive change in America but what change? Aug 21, 2012
  • How the tea party beat Occupy Wall Street http://t.co/SAUzzNog No contest. The t-party organized politically, & #OWS didn’t $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Lanai owner Larry Ellison used tax loopholes for payouts http://t.co/la7HJMh6 The problem isn’t Larry, it’s the politicians’ bad tax code $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • The Real Conservative Opportunity This November http://t.co/m5nXtCUH Urges Republicans 2 champion banking reform. $$ #nixonwent2china Aug 20, 2012
  • Effective protest requires wide organization and general respect for the property rights of others, which these three women did not have $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Fannie and Freddie: The Walking Dead http://t.co/u0Y4CgAt Fannie & Freddie may be dead, but the US Govt’s role in housing is not dead $$ Aug 19, 2012

 

Companies

?

  • There?s Warren Buffett ? and then there?s the rest of us http://t.co/rgMH0kjX The new paper on Buffett’s investing has gotten attention $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Take that Square! eBay still a leader in mobile payments http://t.co/CxHkNQkG Am I wrong, or is most of the value of $EBAY in Paypal? $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Yellow Pages’ Last Lifeline: Clinging to Each Other http://t.co/X347LfLD $DEXO $SPMD hit sell button, internet destroys yellow pages $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • The Beginning of the End of Print: The Lessons of an Amazingly Prescient 1992 WaPo Memo http://t.co/hVa62p0A No one listened 2 Cassandra $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Last tweet FD: long $PSX . Frankly I’m surprised that an oil refiner, transporter, marketer would help come up w/an advance on solar $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Phillips 66, South China U of Technology, & Solarmer Energy Set a World Record in Solar Power Conversion Efficiency http://t.co/95ND020R $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Zynga Spurning Sale Strands Owners @ Worst Web Value http://t.co/zrKw0fjv Remember u r a outside minority investor. Choose mgmts w/care $$ Aug 22, 2012

http://t.co/xW9zcuWY $AMZN does amazing things as nonprofit $$ Aug 21, 2012

  • Monsanto Genetic ?X-Ray Glasses? Speed Tastier Tomatoes http://t.co/AJQZDJY9 Interesting comment thread, no one defending $MON $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Facebook Shares: Still Too Pricey http://t.co/z38X4OsZ The lack of a reliable revenue model makes $FB a buy at prices ~$9-15 $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Barnes & Noble Falls After Second Straight Nook Sales Drop http://t.co/nWNxr3Pw $BKS losing to $AMZN . Slow-motion train wreck $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Up Against Retail Giant Amazon, BufferBox Aims to Jump-Start Parcel Delivery http://t.co/MhW35CeB Any of these should team up w/USPS $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Amazon Wins Race to the Bottom With Radical Pricing on Long-Term Data Storage
  • Facebook Investors Brace for More Shares Coming to Market http://t.co/GE7usIDt Test of how much insiders truly believe in Facebook $FB $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Aetna to Acquire Coventry Health Care http://t.co/sFRdRDv3 The People’s Republic of Maryland loses another large company $$ #BDK #USFG Aug 20, 2012
  • Stocks: The ‘Lockup’ Effect http://t.co/SG5sZIXL A lesson learned during the dot-com bubble is forgotten & must b re-learned. $$ #lockup Aug 18, 2012

 

Financial Markets

 

  • Stock Market Indicators http://t.co/sf0D3BDY Interesting take from the normally bullish Ed Yardeni $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Hedge funds are betting on disaster http://t.co/dDtO6Cd3 Maybe some hedge funds r putting on “big shorts” through CDS, but most avoid vol $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • ‘Insider Trucking’ Drives Strategy at J.P. Morgan Fund http://t.co/JZyRVZ5P This brings “bottoms up” analysis to a much lower bottom $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • The bond bubble still has room to grow http://t.co/DNM9teW1 High yield bond defaults typically peak 2-3 years after issuance peaks $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • FDIC files lawsuit tied to failed bank RMBS investments http://t.co/63GYJ7Zn I know many investors that did due diligence & avoided the prob Aug 22, 2012
  • The Profession’s Faulty Assumptions: A Top Ten List http://t.co/lAeCIRzq A worthy article displaying common errors for financial planners $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Wrong: Why hedge funds may not be right for you http://t.co/SdPmZeRN Only global macro benefits from volatility, other HFs like calm $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Is Your Credit-Card Company Secretly Screwing You Over? http://t.co/7ptHex0g Excellent advice from @eddyelfenbein . Follow it & prosper $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Goodbye, Growth. Hello, Dividends. http://t.co/AO2STJhx Companies pay divs get more efficient w/capital. Doesn’t slow growth much $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • When Wall Street Watchdogs Hunt Whistle-Blowers http://t.co/YyY6UREt Really a sad article. Try to do the right thing & many fight u $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • A Flock of Black Swans http://t.co/ClDRJYho Study history & other cultures &u may find possible some things considered impossible by many $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Russell To Close All But One Of Its ETFs http://t.co/wjKsHrEp A trend that I think will come to most marginal ETF providers $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Calpers Defends Pension Benefits While Risking Losses http://t.co/1nnyYD7t CALPERS relishes its importance, but not its performance $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Five Myths about Glass-Steagall http://t.co/hgzzPkgM What’s the other side of the argument here? The Fed was hollowing out G-S b4 GLB $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Revisiting Stocks For The Long Run http://t.co/b1Dz4mOk DIfficulty of using & rolling the 30-yr Tsy… it’s a very special bond $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Wrong: Six Investment Moves to Make Now http://t.co/kkoarfR8 Reads like this: missed the rally, so take more risk now to make up 4 it $$ Aug 18, 2012

 

China

 

  • China Confronts Mounting Piles of Unsold Goods http://t.co/qXaOoX0h As w/any command & control economy, eventually get gluts & shortages $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • How China Sees America http://t.co/Cv0d61KI Believe US a revisionist power, seeks2curtail China’s political influence & harm its interests Aug 24, 2012
  • Caterpillar Cuts China Production as Digger Slump Reaches Mining http://t.co/Rprs0FS2 China’s coming slump has ripple effects $$ $CAT Aug 24, 2012
  • China Has Become One Big “Stuffed Channel” http://t.co/aAFwHUyj Strategies of promoting exports & forced industrialization have failed $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Weak Demand Drags on Chinese Carmakers, Earnings Growth Stalls http://t.co/dvIrhc0D China slowing rapidly, also c http://t.co/po7PVA3a $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • For China, Too Much Steel Isn’t Enough http://t.co/af9MjbWT Economic growth happens when actions expand options 4 society as a whole $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • China’s Brewing Pension Crisis http://t.co/pHq4Ijgg Still at $3T, it’s a lot smaller than what the developed nations r facing $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • China Reluctance on Reserve Cut Signals Inflation Concern http://t.co/WcH0kKkM If inflation starts running in China, the game changes $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • China?s Yuan Decades From Challenging Dollar http://t.co/J3hmRaID It takes a long time to create deep/transparent capital markets $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • China Said to Order Action by Banks as Developer Loans Sour http://t.co/EUj63rb3 This is a liquidity crisis, not a solvency crisis, NOT $$ Aug 18, 2012

 

Money Market Funds

?

  • Statement Regarding Money Market Funds by Commissioner Luis A. Aguilar http://t.co/6RNScb0L Well-thought out dissent on MMFs. Good job $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Wrong: The lurking dangers in money market funds http://t.co/q2X3gSe8 Another scare piece. MMFs are more stable than banks $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Just sent Mary Shapiro my compromise proposal on money market funds. Hope she grabs it and runs with it http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Big Blow for Money-Fund Overhaul http://t.co/jnRnfA97 Yay! No changes for MMFs, which are better managed than banks. $$ Aug 23, 2012

?

Municipal Bonds

?

  • The 5 Biggest Muni Defaults Ever http://t.co/BlqI96wY Instructive. CA & OH tobacco bonds, Jefferson County, AL, American Air & WPPSS $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Should Muni Investors Follow Buffett to the Exits? http://t.co/6w7wgnzg Sound advice: B selective, only buy what funds necessity $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • U.S. muni market riled by Fed report on defaults http://t.co/6XC0OmS8 Corrects many false impressions generated by the NY Fed muni piece $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • School district debt, representing lgst % of California net par insured (35.5%), is ineligible for Chapter 9 BK http://t.co/TU0uG87h $$ $AGO Aug 22, 2012
  • Buffett?s Exit From Muni-Bonds Signals Trouble Ahead 4 Local Govts http://t.co/Ay9eG3uj Don’t think so; Buffett still owns lotsa munis $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Meredith Whitney?s Muni Prediction Gets No Boost From Fed http://t.co/hVWiQBrx Fed study focused on risky areas, non-rated & IDBs $$ Aug 21, 2012

 

Other

 

  • College Tuition’s 1120% Increase http://t.co/632ueDsX Outstrips even the rising cost medical services $$ Graph: http://t.co/bvYQljFC Aug 24, 2012
  • The closing of American academia http://t.co/MTQjCPQv Adjunct professors earn little&teach a lot. But getting a PhD in Anthropology: Fail $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Lawyer separates variable annuity investor & annuitant, allowing him 2 benefit from the deaths of sick people http://t.co/C2xwCtRc $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • My Last Post – Arnold Kling http://t.co/YvJPt3RH One of the best hangs up his blogging. It’s the way of the internet, ephemeral $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Blind Mice Given Sight After Device Cracks Retinal Code http://t.co/pIaxnTtH Looks like a huge advance $$ #goodnews Aug 23, 2012
  • Wrong: How algorithms will help us spend, spend, spend http://t.co/of3Bhyll People will start blocking it, like telemarketers $$ #FTL #fail Aug 21, 2012
  • Hopes for Chestnut Revival Growing http://t.co/Y58WfC9n Efforts to restore the chestnut tree seem to be succeeding $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Historians, rather than mathematicians usually make better economic predictions, but that’s not saying much… http://t.co/db7NDOKf Aug 20, 2012

 

Eurozone

 

  • Greek Crisis Evasion to Fore as Merkel Hosts Hollande http://t.co/wlXKlz8h Not sure how this will lead to a long-term solution $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • Last Man Standing Means Europe Investment Banks Resist Cuts http://t.co/eIauqQj1 Total capacity must fall, the survivors get better biz $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Wrong: Spain and Italy Are (Probably) Fine http://t.co/5jiC6zRQ Add in the social welfare obligations & dysfunctional politics $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Finnish Euro Doubts Hide Business Plea to Commit to Currency http://t.co/rDbf5isL Euro weak 4 core EZ countries, & 2 strong 4 EZ-fringe $$ Aug 20, 2012

 

Around the World

 

  • First Solar to Build India Farms as Outages Propel Sun Power http://t.co/MJGiIrhj Sunshine is more reliable than India’s electric grid $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • The ECB: Europe’s Conditional Bank http://t.co/6abGujtg “these ideas fail to take account of a key ECB requirement: conditionality.” $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • A Tax Revolt in Japan, and a Bond Bubble Too http://t.co/CoL7Ticw Unrealistic view; financial claims exceed Japanese resources $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • What a Tangled Financial Web Terrorist Networks Weave http://t.co/84eBN6Mc In a networked era, difficult2avoid leaving digital breadcrumbs Aug 22, 2012
  • “The FSA warned that its [risk] survey results were based on self-assessments by individual [hedge fund] managers” http://t.co/KWb6ktQy $$ Aug 21, 2012

 

Energy

 

  • Think Gas Prices Are Bad Now? http://t.co/l4srlshm Between Iran & refinery outages, gas prices are rising particularly on the coasts $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • The Exquisite Symmetry of the Natural Gas Revolution http://t.co/QSit1HWT 10 points on how cheap natural gas is an aid 2 the economy $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Methanol Wins http://t.co/yYP0Z1Qp Interesting experiment fueling a car w/methanol did not take much effort, cheaper & cleaner $$ Aug 20, 2012

 

Comments

 

  • “None of the things you mentioned are markets. The article above is about manipulating markets, not?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/OcU9gn4O Aug 25, 2012
  • Tropical storm Isaac is likely to miss Tampa anyway, storm is consistently moving west of the forecast track of NOAA $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • Haiti has trouble w/rain & 40 mph winds, much less 60 mph $$ RT @AnnieLowrey: Forget Tampa. Pray for Haiti. http://t.co/eJBxmukv Aug 24, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro Thanks 4 passing the article along; some of those benefit designs are astounding $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • @BubblesandBusts I don’t think so Aug 24, 2012
  • @AnaCapMgmt Very good points. There are others trying to do things his way, but difficult 2 manage an insurance investing conglomerate $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan Yes, and here it is: http://t.co/SqXcFiqI Aug 24, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview The only way medical costs will decline is to move to a first-party payer system. When its your ow? http://t.co/Dzjy8j6b Aug 24, 2012
  • “Impossible to manipulate markets without leaving accounting trial. Conspiracies r bunk.” http://t.co/WaXMpySm http://t.co/TPnCsHiB $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • RT @fundmyfund: again why is Japan stock market not up 100% of %,they did many QEs and CB can buy equity assets there.Its mostly psychol … Aug 24, 2012
  • plus ?a change, plus c’est la m?me chose $$ RT @munilass: So Glenn Hubbard has started blogging and Arnold Kling is giving it up. Egads. Aug 24, 2012
  • @rajivatbarnard Nice piece. Did not know you had written it, because my RSS reader broke 2 months ago & I have not rebuilt it yet $$ Aug 24, 2012
  • @ShawnMcFarlane My proposal makes MMF holders take losses in bites, and avoids “runs of funds.” U can read it here: http://t.co/vuNGATPK Aug 24, 2012
  • RT @merrillmatter: @ShawnMcFarlane @alephblog I disagree. They should not be FDIC insured and should be allowed to ‘break buck’ on occasion. Aug 24, 2012
  • @politicoroger Isaac may hit the gulf coast on FL panhandle or further west. God is not man or woman, but he represents himself as a man Aug 24, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview Hasn’t worked so far. Doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results $$ http://ww? http://t.co/tIOtLhYh Aug 23, 2012
  • @nereidadin Yes, no response yet Aug 23, 2012
  • @foxjust Just sent it off to her. Commented on her article, but Reuters is having issues w/blogs and comments these days Aug 23, 2012
  • @SallieKrawcheck @Reuters Would you be willing to review my compromise proposal on money market funds? http://t.co/6vrVXVGS Thanks. Aug 23, 2012
  • @foxjust Been pushing this idea for 3 years, have sent it to the SEC, but I’m a disinterested nobody. Felix Salmon liked it, as have others Aug 23, 2012
  • @eisingerj Would you be willing to look at my compromise proposal on MMFs, & tell me what you think? http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @foxjust Would you be willing to look at my compromise proposal on MMFs, & tell me what you think? http://t.co/vuNGATPK $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @merrillmatter I’ve even heard that Dihydrogen Monoxide is making is way into the water supplies! $$ #help #thereisalwaysenoughtimetopanic Aug 23, 2012
  • @TFMkts @The_Analyst Good points, seems to be more mkt timing than disaster, though I know of some putting on CDS trades. Pay prem & hope $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @munilass Yes, that’s correct, but I could not fit that in. Aug 23, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Really seems like Romney was on the aggressive side of legal on taxes, but his investments aren’t unusual for a rich guy $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Do I have this right then: a company that Romney invested in was 1 of the lenders through CLOs to American Media Operations? $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap Thanks for the praise. I just try to write about what is most motivating to me on any given night Aug 23, 2012
  • @moorehn Read some of the comment letters at the SEC, a non-stable public NAV 4 MMFs would cause significant harm to users. $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @Dvolatility Yes, I heard, that was a decade or so in the making. Actuaries sometimes joke that we keep GASB around 2 make FASB look good $$ Aug 23, 2012
  • @Dvolatility does that affect Poway School district’s ability to service their debt? Yes, data quality varies more with munis than corps Aug 22, 2012
  • @Dvolatility don’t knowhow to bring their thinking up a level of complexity, and say, if CA is in trouble, and San Diego County, then how + Aug 22, 2012
  • @Dvolatility Just read a few articles on overlapping debt. Interesting; love to learn. I think some investors don’t look at it b/c they + Aug 22, 2012
  • @Dvolatility Yes, but I am not an expert on it; as investors go, I am a generalist Aug 22, 2012
  • @Dvolatility What do you mean by overlapping? I just found it interesting that CA schools can’t use BK Ch 9… Aug 22, 2012
  • RT @TheStalwart: In the old days, the idea that None Of The Above could actually ‘win’ (thus making an office go unfilled) was promoted … Aug 22, 2012
  • RT @historysquared: The $Fed is like the frustrated driver who keeps pumping gas into a car that won’t start, eventually flooding the en … Aug 22, 2012
  • @GaelicTorus I might be inclined to the bank debt of $ZNGA or $GRPN. No way $FB goes broke; it has a franchise $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • @joshuademasi I’m saying that Japanese society has not yet come to grips with its inability to fund future promises, that’s all $$ Aug 22, 2012
  • Clever and not what I expected $$ RT @AnnieLowrey: “But at least now we know.” http://t.co/mh5Ldk62 Aug 22, 2012
  • Just finished complex stock screening: 28 candidates, auto parts, airlines, insurers, regional banks, infotech, retail, etc. $$ #bizarre Aug 22, 2012
  • “At that price, bondholders will scour the Globe 4 external assets of Belize, and place liens on them” $$ David_Merkel http://t.co/rZGmkSgQ Aug 21, 2012
  • “Maybe they should team up with the US Postal Service. Lotsa locations, and they need $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/lKe9ShxQ Aug 21, 2012
  • @LarryThompson5 Historically, successful political movements do 1 of 2 things: form a 3rd party, or gain influence over1 of the parties $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • @LarryThompson5 I would agree w/u that #OWS is not Dem-driven. Some tried to use it, couldn’t figure out how, vs repubs co-opting t-party $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • Catch my comment http://t.co/FHwMSyLX Yes, 4 2 reasons RT @ritholtz: Is Pension-Plan Shift Into Bonds Permanent? http://t.co/OWjdqPjH $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • @WatersLogan Good, keep it up. 12% of my readers are Canadian. Aug 21, 2012
  • @TheStalwart Here it is: http://t.co/fBvKxQXq Aug 21, 2012
  • @TheStalwart I wrote a data-intensive post on the Poway School Distirict, and you didn’t post it to BI, but lesser posts did make it to BI. Aug 21, 2012
  • @ETFProfessor1 I understand and that is fine. Aug 21, 2012
  • @e_d_sanders I’m interested in stopping the next crisis; I would like to end interstate branching, and hand regulation back to the states $$ Aug 21, 2012
  • @milktrader Thanks, nice to know it is not just me. Aug 20, 2012
  • Anyone else finding Yahoo Finance to be squirrelly now? $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • @ritholtz I live near Baltimore. B4 my father-in-law died, wud visit in-laws in La Jolla every few years. Wife’s favorite beach near Romney Aug 20, 2012
  • I know I have walked past it; didn’t know Romney owned it $$ RT @ritholtz: Mitt Romneys water front LaJolla shack http://t.co/ee8AwnEN Aug 20, 2012
  • @asymmetricinfo Most homeschoolers in Howard County, MD r secular, many r liberal; the schools r not performing well; HS kids get peer time2 Aug 20, 2012
  • RT @asymmetricinfo: Why worry homeschool kids won’t get socialized? It’s spending most of your time around a mob of your own age that is … Aug 20, 2012
  • As a class yes, some won’t gain critical mass $$ RT @GaelicTorus: but bond etf doing ok, right? low costs, asset growth – as a class Aug 20, 2012
  • Too much honesty there $$ RT @RNPJHP: @The_Analyst @AlephBlog RBC Dominion told me they can’t make 5% returns on client’s money! Aug 20, 2012
  • @wesbury @ 1st Tsy-blogger summit, I encouraged the high-level people there to do that, & what are they considering now — floaters! $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • @ETFProfessor1 You would probably know better than me. It seems economics of running a bunch small funds is poor. Open to your thoughts $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • @abnormalreturns I would consider $FB @ around $8, a touch over book value and a PEEG ratio of 50%, mainly b/c revenue model is unclear $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan I knew you were being sarcastic, just wanted to flesh out my thoughts further Aug 20, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan Of course that’s easier; I use a technique like that to try to deal w/high growth situations that r uncertain $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Hard to compete against $AMZN, which doesn’t have an immediate profit motive. $BKS http://t.co/SC5gA1Ps Aug 20, 2012
  • “Corporate spread tightening is highly correlated w/VIX, another reason $$” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/R9vTpa7s $$ http://t.co/M7X60pC5 Aug 20, 2012
  • @ToddSullivan I would try this 4 $AAPL — est mkt size @ maturity, time 2 maturity, value of biz then & discount @ 12% 2 get NPV/sh $$ #swag Aug 20, 2012
  • “Almost no one arrives early to a fad/motif, so investing of this sort is likely to lose.” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/yCJ0K9SY $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • Much wisdom from Mr. Berra $$ RT @JATranfo: @AlephBlog As Yogi said, “Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.” Aug 20, 2012
  • “I get surprised by what gets attention when I write. To have two pieces on the top 10 list is?” ? David_Merkel http://t.co/UpaKEY0I $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • RE: @bloombergview Pray tell, what interest does Putin have in liberalizing? Current system favors his retention of p? http://t.co/RjR8WI0C Aug 20, 2012
  • @geronimo2003 It means that mortgage bonds will lose net demand, but F&F will still gtee conforming MBS. Pvt sector can absorb supply $$ Aug 20, 2012
  • +1 Well done $$ RT @AmityShlaes: Lobsters as metaphor for everything, including Obama trade policy: http://t.co/qDn83Fqs Aug 19, 2012
  • @StockTwits got the ticker wrong. Mosaic is $MOS , Monsanto is $MON . Both in agriculture… $$ Aug 18, 2012
  • @prchovanec They should listen to Pettis, Walter, & Shih also Aug 18, 2012
  • @prchovanec If they are listening to you, that is good for all of us. $$ Aug 18, 2012
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