Category: Blog News

Blog Notes

Blog Notes

Apologies to those who tried to look at my graphs and couldn’t.? It’s fixed now.? The difficulty was something embedded in the HTML code, so I had to go through and manually edit to get each one.? Posting pictures at my blog has been less than easy, though I would like to do more of it.

 

Partly due to the lack of a Bloomberg terminal, but also because of my diminished interest in the insurance industry, I will be discontinuing my earnings review of the insurance space.

 

Also, for some my my main pages, I had disabled the ability to comment, but it seems as if something has happened to disable commentary on all of them.? For the Amateurs’ Page, if you have a question, just e-mail me, and I’ll post it.? Thanks, and keep the feedback coming; it helps me become better at serving you.

Life Changes & Portfolio Changes

Life Changes & Portfolio Changes

I have often wondered what I would do if I no longer had my trading restrictions, and could invest in financial stocks freely. I no longer have to wonder. As of this morning, I have bought shares in Safety Insurance, Aspen Insurance, Lincoln National, and (what else?) Assurant. They replace the following names in my portfolio: Allstate (waving a fond farewell… but I’ll be back), Noble Corp, and SPX Corp. I will be exiting Lyondell when the arb premium gets a bit tighter. Also, I had two rebalancing buys Tuesday Morning — I added to positions in Lithia Motors and Cemex.

Why do I no longer have restrictions? My employer and I parted ways amicably. I would recommend their services to anyone who wanted to invest in such a hedge fund, but I increasingly found that wanted to do something closer to what I like in investment management. Much as I like analyzing the insurance industry, I’m better at managing broad market equity and bond assets.

So, for the first time in four years, I’m looking at business opportunities. I’ve got a number of them that I am considering, including writing more, setting up my own investment management shop, or working with someone else that I might be compatible with. Do you have any suggestions for me? At this point I haven’t eliminated anything, so if you do have an idea, please e-mail me.

This is bittersweet for me, because I genuinely liked the people that I worked with. That said, I was planning on leaving no later than March 2009 (because of vesting), so this accelerates what was already being considered. This blog was initially developed for this possibility; I just did not expect it to become live only five months after the start.


PS — One of the losses that I feel immediately is the loss of my Bloomberg terminal. I’m going through withdrawal. I’ve used Bloomberg terminals for 15 years now, and given the variety of work that I have done, I know all eleven of the yellow keys to some degree, and I am an expert on eight of them (all except Money Markets, Munis, and Preferred Stocks). I am fitfully learning to do without, but am looking forward to having one back, because I can do snazzy things with it.

Full Disclosure: long AHL SAFT LNC AIZ LAD CX LYO

Post 200

Post 200

This is the last numeric post at my blog.? After I write this, I will switch over to posts using the date and title to create the URL.? I liked the numbers, because it gave me a sense of progress, but my posts will index better with words rather than numbers (hat tip to Dr. Jeff Miller).? Also, the numbers are a little artificial, in that anytime I upload a file, it uses up a number, so this isn’t exactly my 200th post (more like number 160); it is just number 200 the way WordPress counts it.

The Aleph Blog is now five months old, and in some ways the blog has exceeded my expectations.? I never expected to get as large of a readership so fast, and I did not expect to get picked up so much by other bloggers and blog aggregators. The response has been gratifying.? What can I say but I’m humbled by it all.

Now, I wish I had more time to blog.? Blogging must sit behind God, family, church, and work for me.? That said, I am trying to put out quality original content, trying to make sense of confusing markets in an era of securitization and derivatives.? Also, I’m eclectic.? I cover a wide area of issues in markets and macroeconomics, and you get to watch my portfolio moves for the three portfolios that I run.

I’m open to advice on where to go from here.? This is what I am presently planning:

  • Expand the blogroll to better reflect all that I read.
  • Build out my books page, complete with a little Amazon store.
  • Activate Feedburner.
  • Send polite notes to just a few more bloggers who might not know about this new blog.? The best articles page is a simple thing to point them to.
  • Articles: I’ve got one coming soon on the VIX.? Others that will come: How markets and traffic are similar, When to be flexible versus rigid, hidden correlations in strategy, problems in academic finance, rescuing Capitalism from capitalists, and more.
  • My usual coverage of current topics; maybe some book reviews.
  • Add something that verifies my performance, so that I can mention it here.
  • One more thing: a stock picking contest, akin to the Value Line contest done in the mid-1980s, with a prize to the winner.? This contest will test skill in picking stocks, rather than luck in trading, as so many contests do.? Sponsors are welcome to apply, otherwise the prize will come out of my pocket, which means it won’t be large.? A sponsor will receive free advertising on my site for the duration of the contest.

I view this blog as an option on a business.? That option may come into the money or it may not.? For one thing, it is my guess that I will not get a newsletter off the ground.? I have interest from maybe 25 readers, and I would need 100 to make a go of it.? It is somewhat more likely that I may gain other employment, particularly if my friend’s health insurance company gets venture funding.? That is by no means certain, though, so I am open to other job possibilities so long as I can do them largely from my home?? Need an equity or bond manager in an institutional setting?? I have done well with both.? Do you have a wealthy friend that would like to seed a new manager in exchange for preferential terms?? E-mail me, please.

Finally, I want to thank those who helped me get this blog moving.? Thanks to Charles Kirk, the guys at Abnormal Returns, James Altucher, Barry Ritholtz, the guys at Seeking Alpha, and Roger Nusbaum.? You’ve sent the traffic my way, and thanks.? Also thanks to Bill Luby, Dr. Jeff Miller, James Kingsland, Richard Todd, Value Blog Review, and the Unknown Professor.? Finally, thanks most of all to my wife, children, and Jesus.

I would be nowhere without my readers, particularly those who comment.? If you have suggestions for me, send them my way.? I write for all of you; your opinions help direct my writing.

A Wonky Post in the Works

A Wonky Post in the Works

As I mentioned previously, I have a post coming on the relationship of the VIX to the S&P 500.? With apologies to Bill Luby, who handles VIX issues well, this should be a significant piece for those that are willing to bear with a little math.

One aspect of me that is weird, is that I love and hate mathematical finance.? When it is done well, it is a thing of beauty.? I tuck those articles away, and if I can, I implement them.? Most of it is not done well, though, particularly among practitioners, and academics that are slaves to modern portfolio theory.

I am done with all of the calculations, and probably all of the graphs for the article.? I am impressed with the results, which is not a common occurrence. I am my own worst critic on my efforts in mathematical finance.

After this, the next two posts should deal with commentary on my portfolios (tonight), and speculation in the markets, while ignoring subprime lending to the greatest extent possible (tomorrow?).

Blog Notes

Blog Notes

  1. If anyone is having difficulty registering to use the site, just e-mail me, and I can set you up manually.
  2. I have added a few more categories for my posts. One category will be best posts at The Aleph Blog. I have my own ideas, but you can nominate articles if you like.
  3. I have an article on the VIX coming in the next week or so, also a short piece on a subsegment of the life insurance business, and one summary piece on the “Fed model.”
  4. Longer term, there should be articles digging into mistakes in academic finance, rescuing capitalism from capitalists, flexibility vs. discipline, traffic analogies to investing, hidden correlations, and asset allocation.

Suggestions? E-mail me as well, or just comment below. Generally, I try to respond to comments within a week if I can.

One last late addition… I am republishing this because I added one more feature, the “bizz buzz” button at the bottom of each post. It appears on each post’s distinct page, as opposed to the blog’s front page.? You can get to it from the front page by clicking on the permalink, or the post’s title.? If you particularly liked one of my posts, click on the “bizz buzz” bee icon, and that will recommend the story to others at the “Best way to Invest” website.? Thanks for all of your support as readers!

Blog Plans for the Week Ahead

Blog Plans for the Week Ahead

This week I plan on the following pieces:

  • One summarizing current speculative activity in the markets.
  • One summarizing housing activity, or lack thereof.
  • Probably one on the Fed Model. The math work is done; the graphs are made, and half of the writing is currently complete.
  • Possibly one on academic finance issues I have run across, and one on odds and ends in the markets.

Beyond that, I rewrote my bio to put it all in the first person, and I am planning on filling out my books section with mini book reviews, and more books.

What I am debating about, and where you can help me decide, is whether I should do another series on insurance earnings when the earnings start for the second quarter, which should not be until next week (the week of the 15th). Are the summaries valuable? They take time, and it helps me firm up views for the various subindustries in insurance, but if there isn’t a lot of demand for it, I enjoy writing about other issues more. Let me know via e-mail, or by commenting on this post. Thanks.

Blog Enhancements II

Blog Enhancements II

It is my goal to make this blog more enjoyable and usable for my readers.? To that end, today I added some code that adds recent comments to the sidebar, and allows users to subscribe to comments on a post if they like.

 

Future enhancements that are likely coming:

  1. More books and more commentary on my books page, plus links to Amazon (whether I make money off it or not).
  2. Update of the major articles list.
  3. Addition of a polls feature.
  4. And internal enhancements that will enable me to better monitor my site.? Please note, I will never sell the e-mail addresses of those who register on my site.? I live by the words of Jesus Christ, who said, “Do to others as you would have them do to you.”? People hate having their e-mail addresses sold; I hate it when it happens to me.? I won’t do it to my readers.
  5. Some way of tracking my portfolios, apart from what I am doing now at Stockpickr.com, so that I can comment on my performance as needed.

 

Now, if there are other features you might like to see, let me know, and I will do my best to see if I can provide them.

Blog Enhancements

Blog Enhancements

I have added a few features to the blog for syndication purposes.? You can now get my RSS feed via e-mail through Feedblitz.? You can also get the RSS feed through MultiRSS, which handles all popular RSS feed readers/aggregators.

 

I have also added new methods to help me understand what aspects of the website get the most use, so I can understand what people like to read and what is less interesting.? Eventually, I will add some advertising to my blog to help defray the cost, and enable me to have some compensation for providing content.? Not that I plan on blogging full time, but if I were writing a newsletter, having a blog that throws off a reasonable amount of revenue would help make ends meet as I build my business.

 

Again, suggestions are most welcome in terms of format, design, article topics, etc.? I enjoy it when people comment on my blog, so please feel free to do so.

Post 100

Post 100

This is post 100, as WordPress counts. I am going to take a brief break from writing about the markets to write about the first two months of blogging.

 

First, this blog is not what I would like it to be yet. I have many more things to build out, but given my responsibilities as a husband and father, I can’t go overboard. I have to serve my employer as well, and for that matter, Realmoney.com.

 

Speaking of RealMoney.com for just a moment, this blog might not have come into existence were it not for the example of Barry Ritholtz, the encouragement of Cody Willard, the encouragement of various readers at RealMoney, and the neglectfulness of one of the editors there, who I made the offer to of a blog/newsletter, and after promising to get back to me, he did not get back to me. After three-plus years of writing there, I expected more. (Particularly since Jim Cramer was kind enough to recommend me to the editor in question. Anyone who thinks Cramer controls the editorial side of TSCM doesn’t know what he is talking about.)

 

Many, but not all of the things that I used to write in the Columnist Conversation are now getting written here as a result. I am internally debating as to where to put my comments. Here I might get some compensation for them, whereas at RealMoney I don’t get any compensation. I’m grateful to Cramer and RealMoney for the opportunity, but with work getting busier, it is easier for me to blog at night, rather than writing in the day.

 

Friends help in blogging. I particularly want to thank James Altucher, Roger Nusbaum, Jeffrey A. Miller, Bill Luby, and Abnormal Returns for the help in getting noticed. I also want to thank the editors at RealMoney who put up with me mentioning my blog several times in the first week of its existence.Business opportunities come as you blog. Newstex is indexing the content of my blog for its readers, and I get a percentage of the revenues. A fellow trying to start an individual health insurance company wants me to be his chief investment officer; first let him get assets to manage, and we can discuss it (It is a very interesting opportunity). Insurance Journal is using some of my insurance posts. I signed up early with Seeking Alpha and Technorati to increase my visibility. I’ve talked with some value investing blog aggregators, but nothing has come of it really.What I would love to be able to do would be to work from home. My commute is horrible, and I would like to spend more time with my family. I have about 20 takers if I started a newsletter, but that’s not enough to get off the ground. I would need at least 100 before I would start doing a newsletter.

 

Ability to reference free articles that RealMoney has syndicated to Yahoo!, etc., has been another source of exposure. All in all, I’m happy with the first two months, and am looking forward to yet more fun with my readers and collaborators. Do you have feedback for me on what I have been doing here? E-mail me, or just post a comment to this article. Above all, thanks for reading!

 

PS — If you like what I write, recommend me to other well-known bloggers. If you like how I invest, and you have a wealthy friend who might like to seed a low risk equity manager, recommend me to him. Thanks again.

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